HomeMy WebLinkAbout07.A- City Manager 7.A
DOC ID: 4544
CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO — REQUEST FOR COUNCIL ACTION
In Support/Opposition
From: Mark Scott M/CC Meeting Date: 07/18/2016
Prepared by: Tanya Romo, (909) 384-
5122
Dept: City Manager Ward(s): All
Subject:
Discussion Regarding Opinion Polling for Marijuana Ballot Measures (#4544)
Current Business Registration Certificate: Not Applicable
Financial Impact:
$31,500 -Fiscal Year 2016/17
Motion: Discuss and file.
Synopsis of Previous Council Action:
The Common Council directed staff on July 5, to proceed with efforts to poll community
opinions regarding marijuana legalization and regulation.
Background:
Staff has contacted the opinion research firm Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz &
Associates, and obtained a revised proposal for services. Staff has moved forward with
the project per the Council's previous direction. This item has been placed on the July
18 agenda solely as an opportunity for update and discussion.
Supporting Documents:
FM3 Proposal for Services - July 6, 2016 (PDF)
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Updated: 7/12/2016 by Georgeann "Gigi" Hanna Packet Pg.681
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Fairbank,
Masl in,
Maullin,
Metz &
Associates
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Puhlic Opinion Reseayrh
&Strategy
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TO: Mark Scott, City Manager —°
City of San Bernardino m
FROM: John Fairbank, Rick Sklarz&David Sokolove
Fairbank, Maslin,Maullin, Metz& Associates
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DATE: July 6, 2015 0
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RE: Public Opinion Research Services a
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Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the City of San Bernardino's short-and long-term financial and o
public policy needs. As we discussed during our recent conversation, we believe that FM3's research
has a positive role to play in helping you achieve a number of your goals, including the regulation and LO
taxation of medical marijuana sales in the City.
FM3 is one of the nation's leading public opinion research firms in the analysis of voter attitudes N
regarding the legalization and regulation of marijuana. Our research recently helped guide full marijuana ;,
legalization measures to victory in the November 2014 elections in Oregon (with 55 percent support)
and Washington, D.C. (with 65 percent support). FM3 also served as the lead opinion research firm for N
the successful campaign to pass California's landmark Medical Marijuana Initiative Proposition 215.
We have since conducted extensive public opinion research on the regulation and use of medical
marijuana statewide for the League of California Cities, and in dozens of California municipalities—
most recently the cities of Los Angeles, Palo Alto, Riverside and Santa Ana. Our research for the City
of Santa Ana helped guide Measure BB, a dispensary legalization measure preferred by City leaders (n
because of its stricter regulatory and accountability provisions, to victory over a competing measure 0.
backed by local dispensary owners in the November 2014 election. FM3 is currently conducting similar °
research on behalf of a number of California cities ahead of the November 2016 election, including M
Laguna Beach. U_
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The balance of this memo briefly outlines our recommended methodology, timing and proposed cost to E
conduct a baseline voter survey that would examine San Bernardino voters' attitudes toward the issue of U
legalizing medicinal marijuana in the City. The principal objective of the research would be to provide a
data that would ultimately help design a ballot measure regulating the legalization and taxation of
marijuana that San Bernardino voters would support.
' 12100 Wilshire Boulevard Suite 350 1999 Harrison Street Suite 2020
Los Angeles, CA 90025 Oakland, CA 94612
Phone: (310)828-1183 Phone: (510)451-9521
Fax: (310)453-6562 Fax: (510)451-0384
Packet Pg. 682
Research Methodology
Methodological Approach
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FM3 proposes to conduct a 20-minute telephone survey (using both landlines and cellular phones) y
among 400 City of San Bernardino registered voters who are likely to participate in the November 2016 a
general election. A sample of 400 participants will result in a margin-of-error for survey results of
f4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. If the City requires greater precision of results for this project, °
FM3 can increase the sample size and conduct more interviews to lower the survey's margin-of-error. m
However, increasing the overall number of survey interviews creates additional costs; a sample size of
400 interviews is considered industry-standard because of the balance it provides between precision and Z
overall project cost.
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Questionnaire Development °
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The survey project will begin with a `kick-off City staff/FM3 briefing (either in-person or via a
conference call)to clarify the project's goals, sample specifications, and to finalize a project timeline so C
as to best inform our design of the survey questionnaire. Drawing on this information, as well as FM3's
knowledge of public opinion survey methodology from its wealth of experience with medical marijuana-
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related research, and work on behalf of the City of San Bernardino, the firm will draft a survey
questionnaire and circulate this first draft to City staff for review and comment. After collecting
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comments and suggestions, FM3 will refine the survey questionnaire and circulate a subsequent draft for
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further comment. o
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We foresee proceeding through at least two drafts, incorporating feedback from City staff before each a
revision, to arrive at a final questionnaire that will obtain all of the information desired by the City.
Before interviewing commences, FM3 will secure approval from the appropriate City representative on m
the final version of the questionnaire.
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While we anticipate developing the survey questionnaire in close consultation with City staff, we cn
envision the instrument will explore the following issue areas, among others: o
• Measuring whether voters believe that things in San Bernardino are moving in the right direction, or a
if they think things have gotten off on the wrong track; °
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• Assessing San Bernardino voters' evaluation of local quality of life and issue concerns; CO
• Identifying voter perceptions of the City's financial management; LJ_
• Gauging voters' overall attitudes towards city taxes;
• Assessing opinions of medical marijuana in general, and attitudes toward medical marijuana E
dispensaries
• Gauging awareness of the existing City ordinance banning medical marijuana dispensaries from Q
operating in the City of San Bernardino
Fairbank,
?ITaullin,
Metz&
Associates
IPacket Pg. 683
7.A.a
• Testing specific ballot language for a measure legalizing and taxing medical marijuana - how do
voters respond to wording alternatives for the ballot summary?
• Understanding how voters react to policy proposals for City Code changes obligating dispensaries to
meet certain criteria or conditions as a requirement for the ban on dispensaries being lifted,
potentially including:
• Limits to the number of dispensaries citywide and/or by area of the City;
• Creating dispensary-free "buffer" zones of specific sizes around schools, parks, libraries, N
childcare facilities, and in residential neighborhoods;
• Limiting medical marijuana sales to those over age 18 vs. those over age 21;
• Restricting hours of operation; °
• Prohibiting the sale of tobacco or food products on site; CO
• Requiring dispensaries to procure special City licenses in addition to regular business licenses;
• Requiring background checks for dispensary operators and employees; _
• Requiring at least one security guard on site;
• Requiring certain lighting and alarm systems;
• Denying dispensary licenses to individuals who have been convicted of drug crimes; 0 a�
• Levying additional taxes on marijuana sales and/or cultivation at various tax rates;
• Mandating testing of marijuana products for quality,purity, and safety. o°.
• Identifying informational,non-advocacy themes and messages that are most effective at building and o
solidifying support for the bond measure; .E
• Determining which anti-measure messages likely to be utilized by opponents that present the o
greatest threat against support for the measure, and what specific communication steps the City and
other measure supporters can take to inoculate voters from the impact of such negative arguments; LO
• Identifying the most credible spokespersons and organizations to advocate on behalf of the measure;
• Assessing the demographic, geographic and socioeconomic characteristics of each measure's c
supporters, opponents, and those who are "swing"voters.
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Spanish Translation
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According to FM3's analysis of the City of San Bernardino's likely voter universe for the November
2016 general election, approximately 38 percent of likely San Bernardino voters are projected to identify
as Latino. For this reason, FM3 recommends translating the survey and administering it bilingually so
as to provide every voter an opportunity to complete the questionnaire in the language with which they
are most comfortable. FM3 routinely conducts surveys in both English and Spanish, and has the
capability to translate and provide the survey in Spanish (or other languages) at the City's request. o
Kandi Reyes of Reyes & Associates (a small woman-owned business) will translate the questionnaire a
under the supervision of FM3 Partner Dr. Richard Maullin, who is also fluent in Spanish. Ms. Reyes'
native language is Spanish; she is a certified translator by the State of California and the University of LL
Mexico. Ms. Reyes has translated hundreds of survey instruments for FM3 over the last 20 years.
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If the City determines that an English-only survey is sufficient to fulfill the project's needs, FM3 is
happy to provide this lower-cost alternative service. Q
Fairbank,
0 Maslin,
Maullin,
Metz&
Associates
Packet Pg. 684
7.A.a
Interviewing
FM3 will subcontract telephone interviewing services to Precision Opinions, Inc. (PO), a U.S.-based
telephone interviewing facility with whom we regularly collaborate. PO's facilities have well-
established procedures to supervise the interviewing process and to verify that interviews are conducted
according to specifications. Among said procedures are the monitoring of actual interviews by on-site
supervisors, the identification of each interview by interviewer, and the use of a regularly-employed
staff of professional, full-time interviewers. There is an established protocol for callbacks of busy or
"not-at-home"numbers designed specifically to maintain the randomness of interviewee selection. FM3
proposes to review its procedures with the City to ensure its satisfaction with all technical aspects of the
sample selection and interviewing process. Once the survey is in the field, bilingual interviewers from m
PO will be utilized so that respondents may take the survey in Spanish.
Data Analysis co
Response data will be analyzed by FM3's Data Processing and Analysis Department staff using Survey 2
System and SAS software, both well-documented and widely used data analysis software packages. As
needed, FM3 may augment Survey System and SAS with its own custom-designed statistical analysis n-0
program to report the tabulation and cross-tabulation of data. The Data Processing and Analysis =
Department staff employs a data checking and editing system to eliminate errors and document the 0
handling of data received from the interviewers. C
Within one to two days after interviewing has been completed, FM3 will deliver the aggregate "topline" LO
results of the survey to the City for initial internal review. These results will show the percentage of 7t,
respondents that chose each possible answer for all of the survey's questions.
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Within two to three days, FM3 will provide City representatives with a comprehensive set of cross- C°
tabulated results. The cross-tabulated results will include a table for each question or demographic
variable in the survey, with a series of up to 200 columns indicating how various subgroups of the City
electorate responded to that question. The cross-tabulated results will make it possible to detect
differences in responses to each survey question among various subsets of the population. For example, L
it will be possible to compare men and women, residents under and over age 50, responses based on cn
party registration; ethnicity/race, homeowners vs. renters, long-time residents and more recent arrivals, o
voters in different regions of the City, and many more subgroups of the population. N
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Finally, FM3's custom-designed data processing software package can convert the raw electronic data to 0
ASCII format or virtually any other format commonly used, so that the actual survey results can be M
transmitted electronically to the City at the conclusion of the study, if requested.
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Fairbank,
Maslin,
Muullin,
Metz&
Associates
Packet Pg. 685
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Reports and Presentations
Results of the survey will be presented both in-person and in writing, depending on the City's
scheduling needs and preferences. This report will, at a minimum, take the form of a detailed
PowerPoint presentation of key findings along with a comprehensive written document, and can embody
additional forms pursuant to the City's needs. The report will provide clear documentation of San
Bernardino voters' opinions on the issue of legalizing and taxing medical marijuana dispensaries in the
City, and how to use FM3's survey results to maximize success at the ballot box.
After FM3's report and presentation have been completed, we will remain available indefinitely to
answer follow-up questions from the City and present results to key stakeholders. We view the survey m
results as an ongoing data resource; should the need arise, FM3 can conduct further analysis to provide
answers to additional queries that may be posed by the City or other interested parties.
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Deliverables w
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Upon conclusion of the survey project, the City will have received from FM3 all of the documents listed
below. These documents will provide a baseline for where public opinion stands at the present time on .
the potential measure as well as the issue of legalizing and taxing medicinal marijuana more broadly, •0
and will also provide the roadmap for a successful public education effort on the issue should the City .O
wish to undertake one. All documents can be provided in hard copy or electronic form (or both),
depending on the City's preference.
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✓ Final survey questionnaire
✓ Topline survey results (the survey questionnaire filled in with the percentages having chosen N
each response code)
✓ Full cross-tabulated results(responses to every question in each survey, broken down by dozens
of demographic, geographic, and attitudinal subgroups of the population)
✓ PowerPoint presentation (graphs of topline results, additional key survey findings, conclusions
and actionable recommendations) i
✓ Reporting of results (including comprehensive written report with formal recommendations, as (n
well as other forms as needed) o
✓ Raw data from the survey in electronic form 5
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Packet Pg. 686
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Project Timeline
FM3 is ready to begin conducting opinion research on behalf of the City immediately. One of our firm's
strengths is the ability to complete a course of research quickly and efficiently. A draft outline of the
timeframe within which project milestones will be completed follows below. Additionally, FM3 is
capable of accelerating or otherwise adjusting this timeline in order to best meet the City's needs.
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Week 1
• Authorization to proceed; kick-off meeting
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• Finalize sample specifications and survey methodology and processes Co
• City provides relevant information for FM3 to begin drafting survey instrument 0°
• Circulate first draft of survey for comment
• Revise initial survey draft based upon City staff review and comment :L
• Finalize survey draft for pre-testing
• Acquire the survey sample o
• Translate survey into Spanish
• Conduct pre-test of survey instrument o
• Begin survey interviews °-
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Week 2
• Complete survey interviews
• Produce topline results
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• Debrief with City staff on the topline survey results 7T_
• Produce cross-tabulation report
• Produce reporting materials, including a summary of the survey's key findings and a graphic N
presentation of the results (°
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• Present research findings to City staff, elected officials and other stakeholders as needed
Ongoing
• FM3 remains available to present findings to City staff, consultants, elected officials or other
stakeholders as needed U)
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• FM3 can conduct additional analysis of the survey data as needed; as noted above,we view 0
survey results as an ongoing resource for our clients y
• FM3 will help develop the 75-word ballot title and summary, if the City Council votes to place a o
measure on the 2016 ballot
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Fairbank,
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Maull ullin,
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Packet Pg. 687
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Research Costs
FM3 recommends conducting a 20-minute baseline survey of 400 City of San Bernardino registered
voters likely to participate in the November 2016 general election via landline and cellular telephone.
The margin of error for a full sample of 400 is plus or minus 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence
level. The margin of error for electoral subgroups will be higher.
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Table 1 provides costs for the recommended baseline survey length of 20-minutes. The figure provided
below is comprehensive, and reflects all costs for sample acquisition, questionnaire development,
programming and pre-testing the survey, Spanish translation, bilingual telephone interviewing, data —°
entry, cross-tabulation, data analysis, and preparation and presentation of survey results. Direct on
incidental expenses, such as extra reproduction of reports and travel, would be billed at cost if incurred.
TABLE I M
Baseline Survey Costs by Average Interview Length
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Avera a Interview Length Cost =_
20 Minutes $31,500 c
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Of course, any number of alternative survey structures are possible, which may result in higher or lower c
costs. FM3 is committed to working with you to tailor the research plan to fit your budget and meet p
your research needs.
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If you have any questions about this proposal or if you would like more information, please do not
hesitate to contact us. We would welcome the opportunity to work with you to craft a successful o
measure. Thank you for your consideration. N
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FM3 charges for travel based on the IRS 2016 business mileage allowance of 0.54Jmile.
.OM► Fairhank,
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Packet Pg.,688
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Fairbank,
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Associates
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Public Opinion Research
ct Strategy
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John Fairbank Rick Sklarz David Sokolove °
12100 Wilshire Boulevard 12100 Wilshire Boulevard 12100 Wilshire Boulevard m
Suite 350 Suite 350 Suite 350
Los Angeles, CA 90025 Los Angeles, CA 90025 Los Angeles, CA 90025 E
(310) 828-1183 (Office) (310) 828-1183 (Office) (310) 828-1183 (Office)
(310)463-2230(Cell) (323) 219-2279 (Cell) (617) 512-7656 (Cell) L
John @FM3research.com Sklarz-@FM3research.com SokoloveCaFM3research.com 0
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12100 14"i1shire Boulevard Suite 350 1999 Harrison Street Suite 2020
Los Angeles, CA 90025 Oakland, CA 94612
Phone. (310)828-1183 Phone: (510)451-9521
Fax: (310)453-6562 Fax: (510)451-0384
Packet Pg. 689
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