HomeMy WebLinkAbout03- Discussion SCAG & SANBAG FRANIA L. WILLIAMS
B,F1 Executive Officer
3nidy View Region
9227 Hoven Ave.,Suite 280 Honcho Cucomongo,CA 91730
(909)94S-1884•FAX(909)948-9631 Pager(909)464-5984
Ai4/The Sun TH, JAY, December 16,1993
NORTON APPORTIONMENT: ONE
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Offered for sale to IVDA
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BETTS GRIFFONE/The Sun
'Norton: S.B. Airport g ets 1 ,345 acres
I Continued from Al 10,000 jobs lost by Norton's clo- 87 acres of industrial and com-
fully participate in the economic sure. mercial land to the Inland Valley
rebirth of the Inland Empire," Previously, the airport au- Development Agency.
said Rep. Jerry Lewis, R-Red- thority was like a realtor trying to The Air Force will not dis-
lands. "The process of creating sell a house not officially for sale close how much it is seeking for
jobs and rebuilding our local as it tentatively marketed the the property but will offer it to
economy has begun." base to prospective users. another buyer at fair market va-
Wednesday's decision liberates lue if an agreement cannot be
The decision puts Norton re- the group to begin signing leases reached with the IVDA.
developers in line to upgrade the and provides instant credibility Approximately
base with about $27 million in p y Y base not 500 acres s-
federal grants, said Rep. George in the aviation industr the base not included in Wednes-
"I'm ecstatic. This intensifies day's announcement will be cov-
Brown,D-San Bernardino. ered in a second record of deci-
our negotiations (with tenants) Sion by March. Most of that land
"(It) clears away the cloud and allows us to work for con- is expected to be offered for sale
that has been hanging over the tracts," said Trevor Van Horn, to the IVDA.
reuse plans of Norton for the past the airport authority's executive
few months," Brown said, refer- director. Companies being wooed
ring to the delays caused by West- include J.B. Hunt Transport Inc.,
ern Eagle Foundation, a home- Southwest Airlines and Kelly
l e s s support group that Space and Technology,a start-up
previously sought to take over the research firm.
entire base. The authority, required to
Western Eagle's bid delayed bring the airport up to Federal
the Pentagon's decision, which Aviation Administration stan-
had been exnecterl in August dards. wants to have a mainr air-
Fln,al
Irpo
acr"
■ The Pentagon agrees to NORTON REUSE
turn over the land,meaning
work on upgrading the facility senger and cargo airlines to the
andliningup airport tenants base that officially closes in
can begin. March.
The announcement, formally
By GRAHAM WITHERALL known as Norton's Record of De-
Sun Business Writer cision,was believed to be the first
time that base land has been
The Pentagon agreed transferred prior to a military
Wednesday to transfer about 60 site's closure.Commonly
percent of San Bernardino's Nor- fer ed when a base ris closed but
ton Air Force Base to the local with the military's mission fin-
community for a major airport, ished at Norton and an organiza-
ending 51 years of military con- tion ready to take
trol and sparking hopes for a re- over the air-
port, the Pentagon allowed the
gional economic revival.
transfer.
"I'm pleased to announce that Area leaders hailed Wednes-
at 1:45 p.m. (Wednesday), San day's development as a crucial
Bernardino International Air- step in the effort to reignite the
port was born, weighing in at region's languishing economy.
1,345 acres," said a beaming "As the crown jewel of our re-
Swen Larson,chairman of a coali- gion, Norton is now poised to
tion of cities trying to attract pas-
. _ See NORTON/A14
lOUTHERn C;1UFOQn1A
AffOCSHTIC11 Of GOVERnMEnU
818 West Seventh Street,12th Floor Las Angeles, California 90017-3435 G (213) 236-1800 • FAX(213)236-1825
November 3, 1993
Mr. Frank L. Williams
Executive Ofncer
Building Industry Association
Baldv View Region,
9227 Haven Ave, Suite 280
Rancho Cucamonga-CA 91.730
1_
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Dear fir.Lilliams:
You recently requested information regarding the budget and accounting of funds for SCAG's Regional
Comprehensive Plan (RCP). You also requested that information regarding the grant support provided
by federal, state and local j=sdic ions be included.
Our Overall Work Program (01WP) is prepared annually and sets out our project priorities and the
funding. It is approved by SCAG's Regional Council and by our federal and state oversight agencies.
The portion of the OWP Budget for FY 1992-93 allocated to support our mandated responsibilities for
the RCP was $8.2 million. The 2-rant fund sources allocated to support the work were 76.6`,'a federal,
16.2 co state, 6.9 o local and 1.3 o from all other sources of funds. The actual funds expended in FY
1992-93 were $7.7 million.
For FY 1993-94, we have budge:_ S9.6 million to complete the mandated portions of the RCP. The
grant fund sources allocated to support this work are 78.470 federal, 11.61'o state and 10.0`,7a from local
funds.
You should also know that a number of non-mandated elements in the Plan are being completed in
partnership with and are fully supported by the Metropolitan Water District(Water Supply Element), the
California Energy Commission (E—ner�y Element), and the Bureau of Land Management (Open Space
Element).
Sincerely,
MARK PISANO
Executive Director
NfP/RTO/ck
n
cc: Hon. Gaddi Vasquez, President, SCAG v cv
Caddi Vasquez Orange County-President. Stella Mendom City of Bra-ley-First Vice President. Ed Edelman Los Angeles County-Second Vice President. John Longville City of Rialto-P_
President a Richard Alarcon City of Los Angeles. Richard Alatorre City of Los Angeles, Robert Bartlett City of.Monrovia. George Bus City of Bell. Ronald Bates City of Los Alarm¢
George Battey,Jr.City of Burbank, Hal Bernson City of Los Ange!cs. Walter Bowman City of Cypress, Marvin Braude City of Los Ange!es. Susan Brooks City of Rancho Palo$Verd,
Art Brown City of Buena Park. Yvonne Brathwaite-Burke Las Ange!es County. Jim Busby,Jr.City of Vicmrville. Bob Buster Riverside County. Laura Chick City of Los Angeles. Jot
Cox City of te.vport Bcuch. Cynthia Crothers City of Motcno Val!cy. Elmer DigneoCity of Loma Linda. Richard Dixon City of Lake Forest. Douglas Drummond City of Long Beach. Jer
Eaves San Bernardino County. John Ferraro City of lag Angcics. John Flynn Ventura County, Terry Frizzel City of Riverside, Ruth Calanter City of Las Angeles. Sandra Cenis City
Costa Mosa, Jackie Goldberg City of Los Angeles. Candace HagZard City of San Clemente. Garland Hardeman City of Englewood, Robert Hargrave City or Lomita. Mike Hernandez C
of Los Angcics, Nate flolden City of Los Angeles. Rohs rt Jamison City of Arrsia, Jeff Kellogg City of Long Beach, Jim Kelly City of South El Monte, Richard Kelly City of Palm Desc
Bob Kuhn City of Glendora. Ahbe Land City of West Hollywood. Darlene.NlcBane City of Agoura Hills, John.leltan City of Santa Paula. Barbara Messina City of Alhambra. Judy Slik
City of Simi Valley. David,Ayers City of Palmdale. Kathryn Vick City of Pasadena. Be,Perry City of Brea. Cwenn Norton-Perry City of Chino Hills. Ronald Parks City of Termcula. I
Pickier City of Anaheim, Michael Pllsky City of Oxnard. Beatrice Proo City of Pico Riven. Larry Rhinchart City of aontclair, Dick Riordan City of La,Angcics, Mark Ridley-Thum
December 8 , 1993
Honorable Laurie Tulley-Payne
Council Member City of Highland
President of SANBAG
District # 7 SCAG Regional Council Member
SCAG Regional Council Planning Committee Member
26985 E. Baseline
Highland, CA
92346
SCAG' REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Dear Ms . Tulley-Payne:
After the regular meeting with you and SANBAG Executive Director
Wes McDaniel, Ernie Hix and myself on November 17, I must say that
I was somewhat astonished by your attitude, closed mindedness, and
especially your remarks that SCAG Is Regional Comprehensive Plan was
a done deal and that you intended to support it and you were
confident that it would be adopted.
I am at a complete loss as to why you, an elected City Council
member, would advocate adding a new layer of government and giving
up local land use decisions and other decision making powers and
give virtual veto power over city matters to a Regional government.
After a desultory review of SCAG' s draft Regional Comprehensive
Plan, it was obvious to me that you either have not read the RCP in
its entirety or you believe what the plan assumes, (which is a BIG
LIE) : " The plan is based on making use of the powers of existing
local institutions, cities, counties, special districts, and
associations of these units. But over the past two or more
decades, these have shown that they lack the powers and capacity to
fully meet the demands of growth and change in a region of the size
of Southe:r/California. Problems have reached a scale that simply
defies the powers of municipal or county level institutions, while
regional structures are so distant from the individual that they
lack the legitimacy needed in the eyes of most to serve as
implementation vehicles . This plan proposes a shift in the pattern
of institutional relationships. Instead of one which relies on
hierarchial, top-down, mandated actions, a new, a more associative,
consensually based emphasis on shared responsibilities is outlined.
This shift in the locus of decision-making from "above" to within
the community has already begun to occur, although the theory and
practice are only imperfectly understood and developed.
000031
9227 Haven Avenue, Suite 280 • Rancho Cucamonga, California 91730 • (714) 945-1884 • FAX (714) 948-9631
Honorable Laurie Tulley-Payne
December 8 , 1993
Page 2
The region has already signalled its desire to pursue this
direction, and must now work to develop the institutions, the
arrangements among them, and the mechanisms for assuring their
responsibility for powers now vested in the "top-down"
hierarchical. " (page 1-9 , emphasis added. )
The SCAG Regional Comprehensive Plan "talks out of both sides of
its mouth" . Brief examples of SCAG "talking out of both sides of
their mouth" contained in the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP)
show how statements of intent are completely inconsistent with
directions on implementing the RCP which will likely create legal
problems that will be troublesome for local governments .
I=ODUCTION
"It must be clearly noted that the inclusion of any component or
issue in this plan in no way changes the mandates, or adds to them.
These additions are intended to serve only as guidances and a
framework to inform decisions on the mandates, on local plans, and
on governance in general as it seeks to improve the quality of life
for all the regions residents . " (page xvii)
VERSUS
Chapter 1 - Strategy
"The new (RCP) approach would rely on local responsibility, acting
through a self-regulating and self-correcting mechanisms that
reward appropriate actions or behavior, and penalize those that
tend to harm the regions interest. This Strategy is the first
statement of this approach applied to the full range of urban
planning and development activities. " (page 1-15, emphasis added. )
"First all regional plans must be consistent in their basic
assumptions and projections . . .To accomplish this, local plans, in
the process of being updated, must incorporate these regional
assumptions. " (page 1-20, emphasis added. )
Chapter 15 - Plan Implementation
"The California Environmental Quality Act requires that the
documentation for all projects or plans subject to environmental
review must address consistency of the subject proposals with
regional plans. " (page 15-3 , emphasis added. )
0 000
Honorable Laurie Tul? ey-Payne
December 9, 1993
Page 3
"Lead agencies should approve growth proposals only in areas where
the RCP is being implemented. It is doubtful that projects can be
considered to be consistent with the RCP in areas where the RCP is
not being implemented. " (page 15-12 , emphasis added. )
The above brief examples just begin to demonstrate the many
inconsistencies that are in this RCP.
RCP RELATIONSHIPS AND CONFLICTS MATRIX PRESENTED TO SCAG STANDING
COMMITTEE ON PLANNING NOVEMBER 4, 1994 THAT WAS PREPARED BY SCAG
STAFF
On November 4 , 1993 SCAG staff presented to the SCAG Standing
Committee on Planning a RCP RELATIONSHIPS AND CONFLICTS MATRIX, but
was rejected by the committee to be placed in the draft RCP.
You serve on SCAG Is Planning Committee and I am surprised that you
did not pick up on the potential conflicts in the RELATIONSHIPS AND
CONFLICTS MATRIX that was presented to your committee and rejected
to be part of the draft RCP on November 4 , 1993 .
Potential Conflicts included in the Matrix are (and I attach a copy
of tae matrix) :
1 . Plan stresses basic industries which consume large amounts of
energy and generate significant waste and air emissions . NAFTA
would increase traffic in the region and might impact residents of
"communities in need" if manufacturing jobs move to Mexico.
2 . Land Use and urban form goals may conflict with mobility and
air quality goals . Ylousing and economic goals may impact open
space and conservation and the environment intensive use of
developable land resources can disrupt viable ecosystems.
Projected population increase will add increase energy and water
use and productic.. of wastes and air emissions.
3 . Demand management strategies for commute and non-commute trips
emphasize mobility and air quality goals . Proposed user charges '
fees would have economic impacts . Needed new passenger and air
cargo airports may conflict with opens space goals and resources.
Added facilities may conflict with air quality, open space and
housing goals (more compact and balanced urban form. )
000036
Honorable Laurie Tulley-Payne
December 8 , 1993
Page 4
4 . Requirements on businesses may impact the economy. Long term
impacts should be positive, but could initially cause business and
job losses. Costly control mechanisms in cars would have economic
mobility impacts on residents lacking alternatives.
5 . Additional land required for housing conflicts with protection
of natural ecosystems, including open space resources . Meeting
housing needs of newcomers at affordable levels could have a
negative impact on existing home values.
6 . Limited resources constrain the capacity of local agencies to
provide needed infrastructure and services while coping with
additional growth and demand for services.
7 . Lack of financial resources could significantly impact plan
implementation. Infrastructure additions would be delayed while
demands grow for services, environmental protection.
S . Open space and conservation policies could lead to increases in
land and development costs and conflicts with housing, economic
development, and other growth management goals.
9 . Importing water and developing new storage facilities have
implications for habitat and species protection, and for water
quality.
10 . Increasingly stringent standards for industries that discharge
into water treatment plants are increasing business costs .
11. Environmental components identify objectives which place
requirements on businesses and require that resources be expanded
by businesses to reduce their contribution to the problem.
12 . Hazardous waste management costs could have a negative
economic impact on area businesses.
13 . Transporting solid waste by rail to remote landfills has been
identified as a potential solution to landfill capacity problems
but could be in conflict with air quality and transportation
objectives .
I do hope that you will rethink your position on SCAG ' s Regional
Comprehensive Plan and work to protect and preserve the inherent
rights, powers, and integrity of local governments, especially our
cities.
00003'7
Honorable Laurie Tulley-Payne
December 8 , 1993
Page 5
Sincerely,
Frank L. Williams
Executive Officer
Encl
cc: SANBAG Board Members
Highland City Council Members
Mr. Mark Pisano
Mr. John Hunter
Amy Glad, General Counsel
The SUN
Daily Bulletin
Channel 64
000033
1
12�03�93 8: 31 a 8IA OF 50 CALIFO p,83
RCP RELATIONSHIPS AND CONFLICTS MATRIX
Prepared by SLAG Staff
Presented to SCAG Standing Committee on Planning
November 4 , 1993
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DRAFT
REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
December 1993
Staff draft released for public review prior to consideration for action by SCAG Regional Council.
AAAAAANNINk
IOUTUIRR CRUFORRIR
WOCIAnOR Of OOYIRREIRV
MISSION STATEMENT
TO ENHANCE THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF ALL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIANS
BY WORKING IN PARTNERSHIP WITH ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT,
THE BUSINESS SECTOR, AND THE COMMUNITY AT LARGE
TO MEET REGIONAL CHALLENGES AND
TO RESOLVE REGIONAL DIFFERENCES.
0
lOUTNERn CRLIFOR111R
RfIOCINTIOn Of GOVERMEW
818 West Seventh Street,12th Floor • Los Angeles,California 90017-3435 ❑ (213)236-1800 • FAX(213)236-1825
November 22, 1993
Dear Member of the Southern California Community:
I would like to present the Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) and the Draft Regional
Mobility Element (RME). These are the latest products of SCAG's continuing efforts to provide a
long range plan and decision-making framework for the region. They are intended to help meet the
challenges of the region's continuing growth and economic changes.
These documents have been prepared by the Staff at SCAG with substantial assistance and input from
subregional organizations, County Transportation Commissions, State and federal agencies, other
regional organizations, and numerous other public and private parties. They have not been endorsed
or approved by any policy body. The SCAG Regional Council will hold extensive public discussion
on this Draft Plan prior to its taking any action on the plan during March and April of 1994.
The Draft Regional Mobility Element is the latest update of the Regional Transportation Plan required
by federal and state law. It responds to the requirements of the Intermodal Surface Transportation
Efficiency Act (ISTEA) and the state and federal Clean Air Acts. It is the basis for more than $24
billion in federal, state and local investments in transportation that will be made over the next seven
years. Without the RME, funding would be stopped until the plan is complete and meets all
requirements.
I encourage you to review these plans carefully. SCAG will be hosting workshops for the public in
each of the thirteen subregions during the month of January. Notices will be published in local
newspapers, and individual notices will be mailed on request. You are encouraged to attend these,
and are also welcortre to send in your written comments. The Draft Environmental Impact Report
will be released on December 10th, and will be reviewed together with these plans. There are also
documents which provide technical support to the individual chapters of the RCP, and which are
available upon request.
Your comments will be important to SCAG in preparing the final plan documents for adoption, and
your contributions will help ensure the kind of participation and support which the plan will need as
we face these challenges together.
Sincerely,
MARK PISANO,
Executive Director
Gaddi Vasquez Orange County-President, Stella Mendoza City of Brawley-First Vice President, Ed Edelman Los Angeles County-Second Vice President, John Longville City of Rialto-Past
President 0 Richard Alarcon City of Los Angeles, Richard Alatorre City of Los Angeles, Robert Bartlett City of Monrovia, George Bass City of Bell, Ronald Bates City of Los Alamitos,
George Battey,Jr.City of Burbank, Hal Bernson City of Los Angeles, Walter Bowman City of Cypress, Marvin Braude City of Los Angeles, Susan Brooks City of Rancho Palos Verdes,
Art Brown City of Buena Park, Yvonne Brathwaite-Burke Los Angeles County, Jim Busby,Jr.City of Victorville, Bob Buster Riverside County, Laura Chick City of Los Angeles, John
Cox City of Newport Beach, Cynthia Crothers City of Moreno Valley, Elmer Digneo City of Loma Linda, Richard Dixon City of Lake Forest, Douglas Drummond City of Long Beach, Jerry
Eaves San Bernardino County, John Ferraro City of Los Angeles, John Flynn Ventura County, Terry Frizzel City of Riverside, Ruth Galanter City of Los Angeles, Sandra Genis City of
Costa Mesa, Jackie Goldberg City of Los Angeles, Candace Haggard City of San Clemente, Garland Hardeman City of Inglewood,Robert Hargrave City of Lomita, Mike Hernandez City
of Los Angeles, Nate Holden City of Los Angeles, Robert Jamison City of Artesia, Jeff Kellogg City of Long Beach, Jim Kelly City of South El Monte, Richard Kelly City of Palm Desert,
Bob Kuhn City of Glendora, Abbe Land City of West Hollywood, Darlene McBane City of Agoura Hills, John Melton City of Santa Paula, Barbara Messina City of Alhambra, Judy Mikels
City of Simi Valley, David Myers City of Palmdale, Kathryn Nack City of Pasadena, Bev Perry City of Brea, Gwenn Norton-Perry City of Chino Hills, Ronald Parks City of Temecula, Iry
Pickier City of Anaheim, Michael Plisky City of Oxnard, Beatrice Proo City of Pico Rivera, Larry Rhinehart City of Montclair, Dick Riordan City of Los Angeles, Mark Ridley-Thomas
City of Los Angeles, Albert Robles City of South Gate, Sam Sharp Imperial County, Rudy Svorinich City of Los Angeles, Bob Stone City of Bellflower, Thomas Sykes City of Walnut, Jeff
Thomas City of Tustin, Laury Tully-Payne City of Highland, Joel Wachs City of Los Angeles, Rita Walters City of Los Angeles, Evelyn Wells City of Lynwood, Judy Wright City of
Claremont, Zev Yaroslaysky City of Los Angeles e
FOREWORD
The Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan is a compilation of the summaries of Plans for the Southern
California Region. Some of these are required by federal or state law; some are products of operating
agencies that produce them in the course of meeting their obligations; and some respond to direction of the
SCAG Regional Council to examine issues prior to determining whether to include them in the Regional
Comprehensive Plan. The full text of the Regional Mobility Element is being published in a separate volume.
The Draft Environmental Impact Report for this plan will be released on December 10, 1993.
This draft plan was developed in cooperation with numerous agencies, including Subregions of Southern
California, County Transportation Commissions, Caltrans, Metropolitan Water District, the California Energy
Commission, the Bureau of Land Management of the Department of the Interior, the South Coast Air Quality
Management District, the Ventura Air Pollution Control District, and other parties, both public and private.
Reviews of this Draft will be scheduled throughout Southern California between January and March 1994,
prior to the proposed adoption in April 1994. Written comments will be accepted throughout the public
comment period which closes March 4, 1994.
c
A
The preparation of this report was financed in part through grants from the United States Department of
Transportation Federal Transit Administration;from the United States Department of Transportation Federal
Highways Administration;and from the State of California.
REGIONAL COUNCIL STANDING COMMITTEES
ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE
Bob Bartlett, Monrovia - Chair
John Longville, Rialto- Vice Chair
Susan Brooks, Rancho Palos Verdes
Jim Busby, Victorville
Doug Drummond, Long Beach
Garland Hardeman, Inglewood
Dick Kelly, Palm Desert
Judy Mikels, Simi Valley
David Myers, Palmdale
Bev Perry, Brea
Mike Plisky, Oxnard
Bea Proo, Pico Rivera
Sam Sharp, Imperial County
Tom Sykes, Walnut
PLANNING COMMITTEE
Abbe Land, West Hollywood- Chair
Ron Parks, Temecula - Vice Chair
George Bass, Bell
Ron Bates, Los Alamitos
Y John Cox, Newport Beach
Cynthia Crothers, Moreno Valley
Elmer Digneo, Loma Linda
Richard Dixon, Lake Forest
John Flynn, Ventura County
Bob Getts, Regional Advisory Council
Bob Hargrave, Lomita
Mike Hernandez, Los Angeles
Bob Jamison, Artesia
Darlene McBane, Agoura Hills
Stella Mendoza, Brawley
Katie Nack, Pasadena
Jeff Thomas, Tustin
Laurie Tully-Payne, Highland
Rita Walters, Los Angeles
Evelyn Wells, Lynwood
Judy Wright, Claremont
Zev Yaroslaysky, Los Angeles
i
IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE
Hal Bernson, Los Angeles- Chair
Jerry Eaves, San Bernardino County- Vice Chair
George Battey, Burbank
Walt Bowman, Cypress
Art Brown, Buena Park
John Flynn, Ventura County
Terry Frizzel, Riverside
Candace Haggard, San Clemente
Jim Kelly, South El Monte
Bob Kuhn, Glendora
John Longville, Rialto
John Melton, Santa Paula
Stella Mendoza, Brawley
Barbara Messina, Alhambra
Gwenn Norton-Perry, Chino Hills
Larry Rhinehart, Montclair
Albert Robles, South Gate
Bob Stone, Bellflower
ii
SCAG POLICY COMMITTEES
TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATIONS COMMITTEE
John Cox, Newport Beach- Chair
Elmer Digneo, Loma Linda- Vice Chair
Jerry Allen, Western Riverside Council of Governments Subregion
Bob Bartlett, Monrovia
George Bass, Bell
Ron Bates, Los Alamitos
Bob Buster, Riverside County Transportation Commission
Louis Byrd, SELAC Subregion
Hal Croyts, South Bay Cities Association Subregion
Terry Dipple, SGVAC Subregion
Doug Drummond, Long Beach
Jerry Eaves, San Bernardino County
John Flynn, Ventura County
Eileen Givens, Arroyo Verdugo Subregion
Nancy Grasmehr, Ventura County Transportation Commission
Candace Haggard, San Clemente
Garland Hardeman, Inglewood
Mike Hernandez, Los Angeles
Bob Jamison, Artesia
Dick Kelly, Palm Desert
Jim Kelly, South El Monte
James Ledford, North County Subregion
John Longville, Rialto
Stella Mendoza, Brawley
Gwen Norton-Perry, SANBAG Subregion
Ron Parks, Temecula
Bea Proo, Pico Rivera
Larry Rhinehart, SANBAG Transportation Commission
Albert Robles, South Gate
Judy Wright, Claremont
Joy Schlendorf, Coachella Valley Assn. of Governments Subregion
Charles V. Smith, Orange County Transportation Authority
Tony Tirado, IVAG Transportation Commission
James Van Loben Sels, Director, CA DOT, CALTRANS
Judy Wright, Claremont
EX OFFICIO NON-VOTING MEMBERS
Molly Bogh, City of Palmdale(PDC)
Bill Compton, So. Calif. Edison Company(RAC)
Judith Johnston-Weston, Burbank Media TMO(RAC)
Hugo Morris, Joint Council of Teamsters#42(RAC)
iii
•
ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT COMMITTEE
Judy Mikels, Simi Valley- Chair
Bob Hargrave, Lomita- Vice Chair
Art Brown, Buena Park
Bill Cole, IVAG Subregion
Lillian Eaton, SANBAG Subregion
Joan Feehan, Arroyo Verdugo Subregion
Bob Kuhn, Glendora
Patricia "Corky" Larson, CVAG Subregion
Darlene McBane, Agoura Hills
John Melton, Santa Paula
Shirley Morton, Western Riverside Council of Governments Subregion
Katie Nack, Pasadena
Larry Rhinehart, Montclair
Frank Roberts, North County Subregion
Sam Sharp, Imperial County
Nell Soto, SGVAC Subregion
Tom Sykes, Walnut
Laurie Tully-Payne, Highland
David York, South Bay Cities Association Subregion
EX OFFICIO NON-VOTING MEMBERS
Gary Morris, CA Regional Water Quality Control Board
Diana Palmer, So. Calif. Water Conference (RAC)
Glen D. Peterson, MWD --
Ben Pruett, So. Calif. Gas Company(RAC)
Jaime Regalado, Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs (RAC)
Nancy Settle, County of Ventura (PDC)
Charles R. White, California Department of Water Resources
iv
COMMUNITY, ECONOMIC AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE
Barbara Messina, Alhambra- Chair
Susan Brooks, Rancho Palos Verdes- Vice Chair
George Battey, Jr., Burbank
Hal Bernson, Los Angeles
Walt Bowman, Cypress
Jim Busby, Victorville
Cynthia Crothers, Moreno Valley
Joe Dawidziak, South Bay Cities Association Subregion
Richard Dixon, Lake Forest
George Fasching, SGVAC Subregion
John Flynn, Ventura County
Terry Frizzel, Riverside
Mark Gran, IVAG Subregion
Tom Hunt, CVAG Subregion
Harry Knapp, Arroyo Verdugo Subregion
Abbe Land, West Hollywood
Sal Munoz, WRCOG Subregion
David Myers, Palmdale
Gwenn Norton-Perry, Chino Hills
George Pederson, North County Subregion
Bev Perry, Brea
Mike Plisky, Oxnard
Sam Sharp, Imperial County
Bob Stone, Bellflower
Jeff Thomas, Tustin
Marc Titel, SELAC Subregion
Alfonso Urias, VCOG Subregion
Rita Walters, Los Angeles
Evelyn Wells, Lynwood
Mal Wessel, SANBAG Subregion
Zev Yaroslaysky, Los Angeles
EX OFFICIO NON-VOTING MEMBERS
Liz Allen, Sierra Club of California (RAC)
Jim Browder, The Ethnic Coalition of SC(RAC)
Magdalena Duran, National Council of La Raza (RAC)
Julie Hemphill, County of San Bernardino(PDC)
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF TABLES
TABLE OF FIGURES
SCAG Regional Council and Committees i
Introduction xv
Strategy 1-1
The integration of the regional goals with the recommendations of the individual components.
The Economy 2-1
An analysis and forecast of economic trends with suggested regional strategies.
Growth Management 3-1
Federally- and state-required projections of population, housing, and employment.
Regional Mobility 4-1
A synopsis of the Regional Mobility Element, which meets federal and state requirements for a
Regional Transporation Plan (RTP).
Air Quality 5-1
A summary of federally- and state-mandated air quality plans.
r
Housing 6-1
A projection of housing needs and trends.
Human Resources and Services 7-1
A description of current conditions with recommendations for future study and action.
Finance 8-1
An evaluation of local fiscal capacity to meet needs identified in this document.
Open Space and Conservation 9-1
A compilation of existing plans from major land-management agencies.
Water Resources 10-1
A compilation of existing water supply agency plans.
Water Quality 11-1
A compilation of current federally mandated Regional Water Quality Control plans.
Energy 12-1
A disaggregation of the mandated State Energy Plan.
Vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)
Hazardous Waste Management 13-1
State-mandated Regional Hazardous Waste Management Plan.
Integrated Solid Waste Management 14-1
An analysis of present plans and conditions.
Plan Implementation 15-1
An analysis of SCAG's legal authorities with respect to required plans and recommendations for
voluntary actions with respect to other components of the plan.
APPENDIX A
Membership of Subregions A-1
Subregional Input by Component A-3
APPENDIX B
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations B-1
REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT (SEPARATE DOCUMENT)
SUBREGIONAL INPUT (SEPARATE DOCUMENT)
TECHNICAL APPENDICES (SEPARATE DOCUMENTS)
Economy
Growth Management
Human Resources and Services
Open Space and Conservation
Water Resources
Water Quality
Energy
Hazardous Waste Management
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Viii
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TABLE OF TABLES
TABLE PAGE
2. THE ECONOMY
2-1 SCAG Region Economic Base 2-9
2-2 Los Angeles Customs District, Total Merchandise Trade 2-12
2-3 SCAG Region Population and Jobs 2-30
2-4 SCAG Region Economic Base Forecast 2-31
2-5 Employment Forecast Comparisons -- Current vs. 1989 GMP 2-32
3. GROWTH MANAGEMENT
3-1 Growth Management Goals 3-2
3-2 Median Age of U.S. and SCAG Region — 1990 and 2010 3-5
3-3 SCAG Draft Base Forecast for Population, Housing,
and Employment -- Subregions 3-7
3-4 SCAG Draft Base Forecast for Population, Housing,
and Employment — Counties 3-8
3-5 Preliminary Draft Subregional Forecasts, 2015 3-25
3-6 Preliminary Draft County Forecasts, 2015 3-26
4. REGIONAL MOBILITY
4-1 RCP and RME Goals 4-2
4-2 RME Goals and Subgoals 4-3
4-3 Federal and State Legally Required Objectives (Performance
Targets): Mobility and Air Quality 4-4
4-4 Comparison of 2010 Emissions Goals to RME Alternatives' Emissions 4-7
4-5 Mix of Strategies 4-7
4-6 RME Alternatives Compared for Performance 4-12
4-7 Reasonably Available Funding Criteria 4-13
4-8 Third-Tier Transit System Expansion 4-14
4-9 Market Incentives/Pricing Mechanisms 4-16
4-10 Federal and State Transportation Control Measures Requirements 4-20
4-11 1993 Regional Mobility Element Cost-Revenue Summary — 1991-2010 4-23
5. AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT
5-1 1987 Baseline Emissions by Pollutant 5-7
5-2 Ambient Air Quality Standards 5-12
5-3 Federal and California Air Quality Attainment Status by Pollutant 5-14
5-4 Status of Air Quality Plans in SCAG Region 5-16
5-5 Implementation Strategies in Existing Air Quality Plans 5-17
6. HOUSING
6-1 Affordable Housing — The Many Players 6-27
ix
9. OPEN SPACE AND CONSERVATION
9-1 Holland Plant Communities in the SCAG Portion of the
Southwest Ecoregion — Summary by County 9-26
10. WATER RESOURCES
10-1 Area and Population of the MAID Service Area within the SCAG Region — 1990 10-5
10-2 Population Projections MWD Service Area - 1990 and 2010 10-6
10-3 Member Agencies of Metropolitan Water District of Southern California 10-7
10-4 1990 Retail Water Prices in Southern California 10-12
10-5 Projected Increases in Retail Prices •- 1990-2010 10-13
10-6 Urban Water Demands in MWD Service Area - 1990 and 2010 10-14
10-7 Agricultural Water Demand MWD Service Area - 1990 and 2010 10-16
10-8 Actual and Projected Water Demand in the MWD Service Area —
1990 and 2010 10-18
10-9 Existing and Potential Water Supply for the MAID Service Area — 2010 10-19
10-10 Water Supply and Demand Balance for the MWD Service Area - 2010 10-22
10-11 Water Supply and Demand — Water Districts Ouside MWD in SCAG Region
1990 10-48
10-12 Water Supply and Demand — Water Districts Outside MWD in SCAG Region
1995 10-49
10-13 Water Supply and Demand — Water Districts Outside MWD in SCAG Region
2000 10-50
10-14 Water Supply and Demand — Water Districts Outside MAID in SCAG Region
2010 10-51
10-15 Water Supply and Demand — Water Districts Outside MAD in SCAG Region
2020 10-52
12. ENERGY
12-1 Summary of ER-92 Electricity Demand Forecasts 12-9
12-2 Summary of Southern Gas Planning Area Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts 12-10
12-3 Summary of Total Petroleum Product Demand 12-11
12-4 Summary of Demand-Side Resource Additions 12-13
12-5 Summary of Cost-Effective Electrical System Generation Additions 12-14
12-6 Summary of Natural Gas Emission Projections 12-16
12-7 Summary of Transportation Infrastructure 12-17
12-8 Summary of Petroleum Combustion Emissions 12-18
12-9 Intermediate Options 12-21
12-10 Energy Savings and Displaced Emissions: 2010 12-27
12-11 Projected Reduction of Water Consumption 12-29
12-12 Projected Diversion of Solid Waste 12-29
13. HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGEMENT
13-1 County Fair Share Obligations to Meet 2010 Demand for Waste Capacity 13-10
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TABLE OF FIGURES
FIGURES PAGE
1. STRATEGY
1-1 Goals of the Regional Comprehensive Plan 1-4
1-2 RCP Strategic Goals and Component Strategies 1-5
1-3 Cross Cutting Issues of the Regional Comprehensive Plan 1-11
1-4 The Continuum of Policy and Implementation Modes 1-19
2. THE ECONOMY
2-1 Alternative Measures of Real Personal Income — SCAG Region 2-5
2-2 Manufacturing: The Effects of Productivity— SCAG Region Output and Employment 2-10
2-3 Defense Sector's Share of Regional Economy 2-11
2-4 Regionl Employment Grew Despite Defense Cuts —SCAG Region Defense Jobs
and Share of Total U.S. Employment 2-11
2-5 Growth of Exports Through L.A. Customs District 2-13
2-6 Growth of Imports Through L.A. Customs District 2-14
2-7 Los Angeles Customs District — Share of U.S. Merchandise Trade 2-15
2-8 Tourism and Entertainment Sector Overtakes Defense 2-16
2-9 Tourism and Entertainment — SCAG Region Share of U.S. Jobs 2-17
2-10 Apparel Jobs in the SCAG Region 2-18
2-11 Growth of Employment in SCAG Region 2-20
2-12 Yearly Average Unemployment in the SCAG Region 2-21
2-13 Taxable Sales in the SCAG Region, 1980-1992 2-21
2-14 Total Valuation of New Building Permits 2-22
2-15 Median Sale Price of Existing Single-Family Homes 2-23
2-16 SCAG Manufacturing Employment As a Percent of U.S. Manufacturing Employment 2-27
2-17 Difference Between SCAG and U.S. Unemployment Rate 2-33
3. GROWTH MANAGEMENT
3-1 Population, Employment, and Housing Growth — SCAG Region 1970-2010 3-3
3-2 Annual Average Components of Population Growth 3-4
3-3 Distribution of Population by Ethnicity - SCAG Region 1990 and 2010 3-4
3-4 Distribution of Employment by Sector - SCAG Region 1990 and 2010 3-5
3-5 Percent Change of Population, Housing, and Employment, 1990-2000 -- Subregions 3-9
3-6 Percent Change of Population, Housing, and Employment, 2000-2010 -- Subregions 3-10
3-7 SCAG Region - 1990-2010 Housing Density 3-11
3-8 SCAG Region - 1990-2010 Employment Density 3-12
3-9 Population, Employment, and Housing Growth - SCAG Region, 2015 and 2020 3-24
- 4. REGIONAL MOBILITY
4-1 1990 E&F Levels of Service 4-6
4-2 Proposed Mixed Flow Projects 4-8
4-3 1990 Existing and Proposed High-Occupancy Vehicle Lanes 4-9
Xi
4-4 1993 Existing and Proposed Urban & Intercity Rail Lines 4-10
4-5 1993 Existing and Proposed Commuter Rail Lines 4-11
5. AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT
5-1 Air Basins and Air Districts in the SCAG Region 5-5
5-2 1987 Baseline Emissions by Pollutant 5-6
5-3 2010 Emissions without Plan by Pollutant 5-8
5-4 2010 Emissions with Plan by Pollutant 5-9
5-5 South Coast Air Basin — 2010 Volatile Organic Compound Emissions 5-10
5-6 South Coast Air Basin — 2010 Nitrogen Oxide Emissions 5-10
5-7 Ventura County — 2005 Volatile Organic Compound Emissions 5-11
5-8 Ventura County — 2005 Nitrogen Oxide Emissions 5-11
5-9 Peak 1-hr Ozone Readings for SCAG Region 5-13
6. HOUSING
6-1 Household with any Housing Problem, 1990 - Southern California 6-2
6-2 Median Value per Square Foot of Resale Homes 6..4
6-3 Population and Housing Unit Trends and Projections 6-5
6-4 SCAG Draft Regional Forecast, 1990 and 2010 6-9
6-5 Population & Housing Unit Trends, 1980-1993 6-11
6-6 Households by Age 6-12
6-7 Household Growth by Age 6-13
6-8 Distribution of Householders by Race/Ethnic Origin — 1990, 2000, and 2010 6-14
6-9 Households Making Excessive Payments for Housing 6-15
6-10 Moderate and Severe Overcrowding by Tenure 6-16
6-11 Where More than Half of all Renters Pay Over a Third of Their Income
for Housing 6-17
6-12 Areas Concentrated with Overcrowded Households 6-18
6-13 Level of Home Ownership by Age - 1980 & 1990 6-20
6-14 Percent Owner Occupied 6-21
6-15 Cost Component of a New Single-Family Home 6-23
6-16 Redevelopment Housing Resources Available in SCAG Region 6-29
6-17 Affordable Housing — Costs Differences Between Areas 6-32
6-18 Housing Stock over 30 Years of Age 6-34
6-19 Housing by Age, 1990 6-35
6-20 Median Household Income 6-37
6-21 Ethnicity by Income 6-38
9. OPEN SPACE AND CONSERVATION
9-1 Federal Administration 9-12
9-2 Land Administration 9-13
9-3 Developed Land, Current 9-14
9-4 Developed Land, Build Out 9-15
9-5 Regionally Significant Minerals 9-24
9-6 Plant Communities At Risk 9-25
9-7 Public Lands Current & Potential Preservation 9-27
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10. WATER RESOURCES
10-1 MWD Service Area 10-4
10-2 Urban Per Capita Water Use — MWD Service Area 10-15
10-3 Regional Water Demands — MWD Service Area 10-17
10-4 Demand and Supplies in 2010 — Average Year Condition 10-20
10-5 Demand and Supplies in 2010 — Minimum Supplies Condition 10-21
10-6 The Integrated Resource Planning Process 10-42
10-7 Water Agencies in the SCAG Region Outside Metropolitan Water District 10-45
11. WATER QUALITY
11-1 Major Surface Water Features 11-5
11-2 California Regional Water Quality Control Boards in the SCAG Region 11-11
11-3 Partial List of Agencies with Water Quality Planning and Management 11-13
Responsibilities in the SCAG Region
12. ENERGY
12-1 SCAG 1990 Residential Energy Use 12-4
12-2 SCAG 1990 Commercial and Industrial Energy Use 12-4
12-3 California 1990 Electricity Consumption 12-5
12-4 SCAG Electricity Resources 12-6
- 12-5 California 1990 Natural Gas Consumption 12-6
12-6 California 1990 Petroleum Consumption 12-7
13. HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGEMENT
13-1 Generation of Hazardous Waste in Southern California in 1990 13-6
13-2 Location of Facilities Receiving Hazardous Waste from Region — 1990 13-7
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14. INTEGRATED SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT
14-1 Elements of Countywide Integrated Waste Management Plans 14-6
14-2 Solid Waste Generated in SCAG Region by County — 1990 14-10
14-3 Solid Waste Generation in the SCAG Region — 1990 14-11
14-4 Solid Waste Diversion in the SCAG Region — 1990 14-12
14-5 Solid Waste Disposal in the SCAG Region — 1990 14-12
14-6 Tons of Solid Waste Diverted and Disposed by Category in the SCAG Region -- 1990 14-13
14-7 Permitted Waste Capacity in SCAG Region by County — 1990 14-15
14-8 Years of Remaining Permitted Landfill Capacity — By County, 1990 14-16
14-9 Proposed Waste-by-Rail Projects in SCAG Region 14-18
X
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INTRODUCTION
This plan represents a major departure from all previous planning for Southern California in several
respects. First, it is comprehensive. Second, it is the product of a joint, multi-agency effort. In addition to
SCAG, other regional agencies including in particular the Bureau of Land Management, the Metropolitan
Water District and the California Energy Commission, thirteen subregions' and the local governments within
the SCAG region have all contributed to its preparation. Third, it is only the first in what will be a series of
plans, representing continuing updates and refinements to this plan as conditions evolve and understanding
improves. And finally, it explicitly recognizes that the "horizon date" of 2010 (2015 for the Regional
Mobility Element), toward which the plan is focused, is only an interim date. Conditions will continue to
evolve beyond that date, and this plan therefore is only the groundwork toward that more distant future.
This document is also a first in that it sets a broad set of goals for the region, and identifies strategies for
agencies at all levels to use in guiding their decision-making toward implementation of the proposals.
Southern California has never, in the past, agreed on such goals, and their adoption by SCAG and its
constituent members represents an important step forward in defining a regional identity toward which all can
work. It is an identity which has growing acceptance, an acceptance in part due to the shared understandings
which have come about as a result of participation in the process of developing the plan.
SCAG has recently undergone a significant transformation as an agency. In February of 1992, the General
Assembly adopted new bylaws that expanded the Executive Committee from 23 to 70 members, and renamed
it the Regional Council. Further, it required that future SCAG planning be comprehensive, and directed
such planning be undertaken in a "bottom-up, interactive" mode. This plan responds to that mandate.
See pages xiii-xiv for list and map of the Subregions. A list of the constituent members of the subregions is found in Appendix A.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page xv
• Introduction
Subregions were identified, either as existing organizations of local governments, or brought together with
SCAG assistance to provide input. This input is reflected throughout the plan, and forms the basis of the
approach, which recognizes both the commonalities and the diversity of the subregions in meeting the
challenges of growth and change in this region.
This plan is designed to meet a number of purposes. It is intended to serve the region as a general guide to
the growth and changes that can be anticipated during the next 15 to 20 years. It provides a general view of
the plans of the various regional agencies that will affect local governments, or that respond to the significant
issues facing Southern California. And, it summarizes the plans which describe how the region will meet
certain federal and state requirements with respect to Transportation, Growth Management, Air Quality,
Housing, Hazardous Waste Management, and Water Quality Management.
It is not a proscription for local governments. Rather, it is a comprehensive overview of the region, focusing
on its growth and problems, and it suggests a strategy that local governments may elect to use, which should
assist them in meeting these challenges. This strategy is based on the recognition that all of these problems
and issues are interconnected, and none can be meaningfully dealt with in isolation from the others. Hence, it
is comprehensive and treats Southern California as a metropolitan system. It also derives from the concept
of "bottom-up interactive" planning. It is a dialogue between the local governments which make up SCAG
on the one hand, and the federal and state requirements on the other. This dialogue forms the basis for the
proposals and policies contained in the plan. Yet, it is broader than just a response to these mandates: it
suggests strongly that none of these mandates will be able to be met unless the region looks at its problems as
a whole, and elects to address all of them simultaneously. Concentrating on a few issues would only mean
that others,just as critical, will go ignored until they too reach a crisis. With planning and foresight, it is
possible to avoid this type of crisis-response planning, which is both far more costly in the long-run and far
less effective.
The plan is also a living document; it is intended to be continuously under revision and update so that it stays
current, and provides a response that is both long-range, strategic and responsive to a constantly evolving
situation.
With respect to the specific requirements, SCAG has the following mandates:
SCAG is designated by the federal government as the Region's Metropolitan Planning Organization and
mandated to maintain a continuous, comprehensive, and coordinated transportation planning process resulting
in a Regional Transportation Plan and a Regional Transportation Improvement Program pursuant to 23
U.S.C. §134(8)-(h), 49 U.S.C. §1607(f)-(g) et seq., 23 C.F.R. §450, and 49 C.F.R. §613. SCAG is also
the designated Regional Transportation Planning Agency, and as such is responsible for both preparation of
the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and Regional Transportation Improvement Program (RTIP) under
California Government Code Section 65080.
SCAG is responsible for developing the demographic projections and integrated land use, housing,
employment, and transportation programs, measures, and strategies portions of the South Coast Air Quality
Management Plan, pursuant to California Health and Safety Code Section 40460(b)-(c). SCAG is also
designated under 42 U.S.C. §7504(a) as a Co-Lead Agency for air quality planning for the Central Coast and
Southeast Desert Air Basin District.
Page xvi • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
( • Introduction
SCAG is responsible under the Federal Clean Air Act for determining Conformity of Projects, Plans and
Programs to the Air Plan, pursuant to 42 U.S.C. §7506.
SCAG is the authorized regional agency for Inter-Governmental Review of programs proposed for federal
financial assistance and direct development activities, pursuant to Presidential Executive Order 12,372
(replacing A-95 Review).
SCAG reviews, pursuant to Public Resources Code Sections 21083 and 21087, Environmental Impact
Reports of projects of regional significance for consistency with regional plans [California Environmental
Quality Act Guidelines Sections 15206 and 15125(b)].
Pursuant to 33 U.S.C. §1288(a)(2) (Section 208 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act), SCAG is the
authorized Areawide Waste Treatment Management Planning Agency.
SCAG is responsible for preparation of the Regional Housing Needs Assessment, pursuant to California
Government Code Section 65584(a).
SCAG is responsible (with the San Diego Association of Governments and the Santa Barbara County/Cities
Area Planning Council) for preparing the Southern California Hazardous Waste Management Plan pursuant
to California Health and Safety Code Section 25135.3.
The three partner agencies contributed to the preparation of this plan. The Water Resources chapter was
largely prepared by the Metropolitan Water District, the largest of the water suppliers in the region, together
with the other major suppliers. They are responsible for the provision of adequate supplies of safe water for
the residents of the region. The Energy component was prepared by the California Energy Commission, the
state agency responsible for long-range energy planning for the entire state. This chapter is a disaggregation
of the state plan governing the SCAG region, and was prepared specially for SCAG by the Commission. The
Open Space component was prepared by the United States Department of the Interior Bureau of Land
Management (BLM) as a composite of existing plans from federal, state, and regional agencies responsible
for land management.
There are two types of components in the plan: those that respond directly to federal or state mandates, and
those that are included in the interest of comprehensiveness. These latter are indispensable to the
understanding of the former: the mandates can only be addressed if all the issues, especially the economic
future of the region, are understood and accounted for. Without such a background, planning for
transportation or air quality or housing rests on a very unstable foundation, especially since the Region is
undergoing the most dramatic economic restructuring since the end of World War II.
It must be clearly noted that the inclusion of any component or issue in this plan in no way changes the
mandates, or adds to them. These additions are intended to serve only as guidance and a framework to
inform decisions on the mandates, on local plans, and on governance in general as it seeks to improve the
quality of life for all the regions residents.
This Regional Comprehensive Plan document is the summary of a great quantity of analysis of conditions in,
and projections for, the region. Most of the RCP chapters are excerpted from more detailed analyses which
are found in separate reports from which are available to any who wish to see them. The thirteen subregions
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page xvii
• Introduction
of the SCAG region have prepared individual input documents, reports and in some cases, subregional plans.
These have been used to develop and support the RCP proposals and recommendations, and are referenced
throughout the document. They are also available to any person seeking further information about a
particular subregion. For copies of either the background documents or the subregional documents, please
contact SCAG directly.
Finally, it must be stated that while this document contains the issues and concerns that the staff believes to
be important. The final format of the document is still subject to continued evolution. The Standing
Committee on Planning will make a final recommendation to the Regional Council on the format, in
accordance with the following Resolution, adopted January 7, 1993:
"The RCP, with the involvement of all the SCAG subregions, shall incorporate as
separate elements the mandatory components (Mobility, Growth Management, Housing,
Air Quality, Water Quality and Hazardous Waste) with the remaining components,
including solid waste, either being incorporated as relevant into the above required
elements or incorporated as separate elements as appropriate and justified and approved
by the Executive Committee (Regional Council). The RCP, including the appropriate and
approved components is scheduled for completion by December 1993."
Since this resolution was adopted, the Regional Council has extended the date for plan adoption which is now
tentatively scheduled for April 1994.
A note on Subregional Input
Input has been received from all subregions. It is available in its unedited form to all who would like to
review it. In addition, each chapter in this document reflects this input, and where subregions have either
proposed ideas or projects that have been included in the plan, or where they have supported staff
recommendations, this is noted in a footnote. Occasionally, there may be a divergence between subregions or
between a subregion and the SCAG staff. This, too, is noted.
Pagexviii• December 1993 .SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
• Introduction.
Subregions of Southern California
Arroyo Verdugo
Coachella Valley Association of Governments
Imperial Valley Association of Governments
City of Los Angeles
North Los Angeles County
Orange County
San Bernardino Associated Governments
San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities
South Bay Cities Association
South East Los Angeles County
Ventura Council of Governments
West Side Cities
Western Riverside Council of Governments
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page xix
• Introduction
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Page xx • December 1993 .SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
STRATEGY
• Introduction and Purpose
• The Vision
• A Decision-Making Framework for Implementation
• Caveats
A. INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE
This document contains Southern California's first ever comprehensive overview of the issues and
opportunities facing the entire region. In a major break with past practice, it places locally defined goals on
equal terms with mandates imposed by state and federal law. Thus, in addition to responding to mandates in
transportation, air quality, housing, growth forecasts, water quality, and hazardous waste management, the
plan places a comparable emphasis on issues that local initiative has determined to be of high priority. First
and foremost, this includes the economy. The others are human resources, finance, open space, water
resources, and energy. This Strategy has been designed to tie all of these issues together.
The purpose of this document is to create a framework for regional and local decision-making that will ensure
such decision-making is consistent and supportive of regional as well as local goals. These are to be found in
the following chapters, which are mostly summaries of more detailed documents. Thus, this document will
serve as a guide and advisor to local officials seeking to determine the best for their communities by ensuring
that their decisions are consonant with those of other communities as well as with broader regional trends and
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-1
Chapter One • Strategy
actions. It is important to emphasize that the plan relies for its implementation on locally made decisions.
While providing some guidance in this direction, its main function is to lay out the choices available to local
governments and identifies the implications of those choices on both local and regional development. This
framework is more fully defined below in Section B, The Vision, which sets out goals and themes for the
planning process,' leading to a new approach to decision-making.
A second major innovation of this plan is the development of a new set of relationships among the regional
planning agencies, and their constituent local governments. This relationship has been built on subregional
organizations', which are groups of cities together with unincorporated areas which have a common historical
or geographical identity. Many of these subregions were newly formed for this purpose, to coordinate the
expression of local needs and plans for inclusion in the planning process and to guarantee recognition of the
unique needs and differences among each of these subregions.
B. THE VISION
There are several critically important trends which lie at the heart of the development of the great urban
regions of the United States. For many reasons, including its age, location, climate, history, and geography,
the Southern California metropolis and its environs constitute what may be described as the leading edge of
urbanization in the late 20th century, and will continue to do so for some time to come. Among these trends
are those of immigration/migration from throughout the world, accelerating patterns of economic change,
social stresses, as well as environmental and resource challenges on an unprecedented scale.
Blessed with a climate that has not only attracted millions to the "Southern California life-style" but that also
resulted in the "discovery" of smog, the region has been forced to deal earlier and faster than any others with
the impacts of virtually unrestrained growth on a an environment of limited resources. Most other
metropolitan regions (both in the U.S. and abroad) have either suffered in silence (e.g. Eastern Europe) or
had many of their environmental problems solved for them after the impact of economic changes (e.g.
Pittsburgh). Southern California is unique in its attempt to do so while maint4ining a growth economy`, not
to mention the sheer the scale of the region'. Although currently suffering from the economic effects of a
massive scaling back of defense production, the overall impact is significantly less, proportionately, than was
the closure of the steel mills in Pittsburgh in the 1960s, or the loss of the textile industry in New England in
the 1950s. This is due to the variety and strength of the many industries that support the region.
Redirecting the economy to meet the needs of current and future residents is the paramount goal of the
region. Although heavily dependent on outside resources and events, there is much the region can and should
do on its own to take over management of its own affairs. The Economic component of the Plan provides a
' These subregions listed in the Introduction, pp.xix-xx.
See SCAG,Regional Development Guide 1982, and the SCAG Growth Management Plan, 1989.
At over is million inhabitants, Southern California qualifies as a "megacity", along with cities such as Rio de Janeiro,
Mexico City, Tokyo and Shanghai, to name just a few.
Page 1-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
0
Chapter One • Strategy
number of suggestions in this direction, and provides, it is hoped, the basis for a sustained dialogue leading to
action to meet the economic challenges to the region.
In particular, this document focuses on three broad economic goals for the region, goals, which are used to
also direct the goals and actions proposed for each of the other components of this plan. These are the
creation of new wealth within the region from primary industries, developing import substitution in an open
and free trading environment, and improving the standard of living for all.
1 . GOALS FOR THE REGION
Previous plans for Southern California have been built around the assumption of virtually unending economic
growth and prosperity. However, the recent downturn, especially its length and severity, has called this
assumption into question. Local governments will have to come together to coordinate their actions in a
concerted effort, and work directly with the private sector to create the kind of economic growth previously
assumed. This document is intended to provide the focus for discussion and action to reinvigorate the
economy.
But just focusing on the economy is not sufficient to meet the needs of the region. Social disparities and
inequities are leading toward social disruption and dislocation, which if not addressed, could well lead toward
a repeat and even spread of the civil unrest experienced during the spring of 1992. The goals set forth below
are the first attempt to address the social and economic inequities and the geographical isolation of
communities throughout the region. The SCAG Regional Council hopes these goals will serve as the basis
for further discussions and the development of programs to redress the conditions that led to them.
To guide the decision-making process, this document proposes the adoption of regional goals. These will be
goals for all of Southern California (see Figure 1-1). They represent the many needs and concerns that must
be addressed simultaneously by the region to avoid creating further imbalances between the needs of the
community at-large and the implementation of the various aspects of the plan. Local governments will need
to build a consensus around these goals so that concerted action will be generated that will build the future
envisioned for Southern California.
The Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) is a framework for decision-making for local governments, assisting
them to work together through their subregional organizations, in order to meet federal and state mandates,
consistent with our agreed upon regional goals. Each of the chapters in the document seeks to contribute to
the achievement of the goals set out below (see Figure 1-2). Where possible, all three goals are addressed
simultaneously, so that the enhancement of one goal is not achieved at the expense of others. Briefly, each of
the chapters seeks to find ways to improve the economy in its area of concern while at the same time
enhancing the environment and improving the equity of the distribution of benefits.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-3
•
Chapter One • Strategy
Figure 1-1.
GOALS OF THE REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
Standard of Living Quality of Life Equity
• Increase real per capita • Provide adequate and affordable • Provide fair and equitable
income for all residents. housing to all on a timely and access to employment and
equitable basis. the multitude of other
• Increase proportionately resources throughout the
the region's share of • Enhance and maintain air, land, region.
employment in sectors open space, and water quality
ion. • Provide fair and equitable
throughout the re
expected to grow rapidly g g
over the next two decades. access to regional
• Define a process which safely governance.
• Attain sustained economic and efficiently handles hazardous
growth in order to reach waste. • Recognize, encourage and
and maintain an average support ethnic, racial, and
unemployment rate which • Provide adequate transportation cultural diversity.
is below the national rate. for all residents while meeting
clean air goals.
• Invest in the human capital of
the region, particularly in health,
education, job training,
recreational and cultural
activities.
• Enhance personal safety and
security throughout the region.
• Maintain a sense of community
and recognize the value of
neighborhood and distinct
localities in the region.
Page 1-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
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Chapter One • Strategy
2. MEETING THE GOALS
Much of the planning in this region (as elsewhere) has been based on maximizing a narrow range of goals
and objectives without reference to the broader impact of such actions on other aspects of life and the
environment within the region. Transportation has been viewed as an end unto itself, planning for mobility
(with some reference to air quality), but with little real evaluation of its broader impacts on such areas as the
physical environment, housing, personal income, etc. Similarly, new development has been promoted to
meet housing needs and the revenue requirements of local governments, but rarely are the impacts on other
issues such as transportation, utility costs, social issues, or health care, fully evaluated. The result of this
approach is frequently a duplication of services, and an over-emphasis on single issues to the detriment of
others just as important (witness the huge investment in transportation through federal, state and local funding
which occurs at the same time that local governments are forced to severely reduce expenditures in education,
health, safety, etc.)
The RCP declares the region's recognition of the fact that single purpose planning distorts both the goals and
the implementation of plans. Given the depth of the crisis presently facing the region, only a broadly based
approach that supports all the functions of government and governance can be expected to succeed. Single-
purpose governments (transportation commissions, air districts, water districts) will need to fit their plans into
this more broadly conceived regional decision-making structure in order to achieve conformity and
consistency, and therefore, the ability to implement their plans.
To put it another way, to meet the goals of this plan and the mandates on the region, new financial priorities
will have to be established for all levels of government. Government bodies will need to be able to use their
funds more flexibly to meet these priorities, rather than having their priorities fixed by funding availability.
Not only does present practice mean that certain critical issues may go unaddressed for lengthy periods until
new funding authority is gained, but the costs of dealing with the issue may be significantly higher when it
finally is addressed, due to the impact of the delay itself. Finally, the limitations of categorical planning and
spending also mean that reasonable alternatives are not addressed because they cross "turf' boundaries.
3. THEMES
There are three major themes that this plan seeks to promote in the vision for Southern California. These
themes run throughout the plan as the thread that ties together the various strands of actions recommended in
the many separate sections, and together form the core around which this strategy is built.
The first theme is community. Community is, at its most fundamental level, the expression of commonthe
concern, and acceptance of the responsibility for the shared aspects of life. It is most noticeable and
effectively expressed at the local level, at the level of neighborhood, around a school, or church or other
geographic/institutional organizing entity. For much of Southern California, the expression of community
needs strengthening. Links between the people living together need to further develop so that they can make
use of the strengths which come from acting around shared concerns. These shared concerns are frequently
the same issues that have been developed as components of this plan—housing, transportation, air quality, or
human development. The legal structure of our society may establish the specific boundaries within which
these problems are managed, and the region itself is frequently the appropriate analytical framework for
evaluating our progress. But it is through actions and organization at the community level that real
Page 1-8 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter One • Strategy
involvement and sound answers to our problems will need to be found. Few can relate to the entire region of
Southern Califomia. Instead we speak of belonging to a neighborhood or section of our city or county which
often has no legal status, yet is more meaningful to us than is the legally defined entity in which it exists.
There is no contradiction here. Our cities and the region are made up of thousands of these communities,
and our political and economic development are expressions of the success or failure of our communities.
The plan recognizes this fact, and suggests a number of tools that can be applied through local government to
strengthen our communities, and conversely, ways in which communities can view the broader world to
improve the functioning of local governments and the region as a whole.
The concept of community is developed in the plan in many different ways. It relates to the economic
clusters which the region will foster. It relates to communities in need which the region must address. It
relates to growth management policies which both seek to protect existing neighborhoods and concentrate the
new development where possible around transportation nodes.
The second theme is that of local coal-oriented responsibility for planning and implementation. Using
the concept of community in its broadest sense, Southern California must develop a new approach to meet the
goals set out in this plan and their relationship to the external dictates that are imposed on the region by
federal and state requirements. Working through a new set of relationships between public agencies, the
private sector and the public at large, this frame-work shows some of the steps that must be taken in order to
assume responsibility for our own destiny. Toward this end, the plan proposes three goals: raising the
standard of living, enhancing the quality of life, and fostering equity so that all can share in the opportunities
offered. These are high ideals, and demand much of us, but ultimately, the responsibility falls on each of us
individually to join in the community efforts which then comprise the region.
The plan is based on making use of the powers of existing local institutions, cities, counties, special districts,
and associations of these units. But over over the past two or more decades, these have shown that they lack
C the powers and capacity to fully meet the demands of growth and change in a region of the size of Southern
California. Problems have reached a scale that simply defies the powers of municipal or county level
institutions, while regional structures are so distant from the individual that they lack the legitimacy needed in
the eyes of most to serve as implementation vehicles. This plan proposes a shift in the pattern of institutional
relationships. Instead of one which relies on hierarchical, top-down, mandated actions, a new, a more
associative, consensually based emphasis on shared responsibilities is outlined. This shift in the locus of
decision-making from "above" to within the community has already begun to occur, although the theory and
practice are only imperfectly understood and developed. The region has already signalled its desire to pursue
r
this direction, and must now work to develop the institutions, the arrangements among them, and the
mechanisms for assuring their responsibility for powers now vested in the "top-down" hierarchical structure.
The third theme is the ability of the region to organize itself to handle the complex tasks ahead. The region
will need to assemble the tools, skills, and organizations needed to effectively manage our destiny in an era of
increasing globalization of the economy, communications, social ties and environmental issues. New
relationships, both formal and informal, must be forged to strengthen the public and private sectors, and to
create new partnerships between them. These would include the proposed industrial clusters which will
require new-forms of coordination between business, research, labor and government (Chapter 2, the
Economy) and advanced transportation (Chapter 6, Mobility); the new initiatives proposed to manage
pollution-generating activities (Chapter 5, Air Quality); the focus on people, their skills and needs, such as
the proposal for "sister-community" relationships (Chapter 7, Human Resources and Services), the planning
and financial partnerships between government, business and non-profit organizations needed to provide
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-9
Chapter One • Strategy
adequate housing (Chapter 8, Housing), the approaches suggested for preservation and management of natural
resource areas (Chapter 9, Open Space), and the new implementation approaches (Chapter 15, Plan
Implementation).
4. RELATIONSHIPS AMONG RCP COMPONENTS
The goals shown in Figure 1-1 provide a way for the region to create relationships and resolve conflicts
among the different components of the RCP. Previous planning for the region has been largely single-issue,
and current mandates only require plans that address single topics. As yet, no requirement exists for a broad
assessment of the region and its future. The SCAG Regional Council wishes to emphasize that from the
perspective of local government, these individual functional plans are experienced simultaneously within a
given geography. Thus, there are components for air, water and waste, but none for Southeast Los Angeles.
The subregional planning process is intended resolve this problem over time. However, since the regions's
plans continue to be prepared in response to federal and state mandates in functional components, some new
process must be created to resolve conflicts and set priorities among them.
Southern California is already strongly aware of the relationship between transportation and air quality, which
has been the subject of intensive planning and action since the mid-1970s, and even before. Less recognized
are other relationships such as those between job location and housing; or the relationship between local
control of development and the lack of affordable housing in the region; or the demands of the economy and
the growing weaknesses of the educational and vocational systems.
In this first effort to create a new kind of planning process, the relationship among RCP components will be
established by making sure that each of the functional components addresses a set of six over-arching strategic
issues. The Strategic goals are intended to serve the region by guiding it toward consensus on important
issues. Each of the individual components of this decision-making framework has been developed and
evaluated, both at the local and at the regional level, and measured against these goals to assure compatibility.
Evaluation against the goals is the assurance that each component will address the six shared issues listed in
Figure 1-3.
The focus of this effort will initially be to ensure that the various components of the RCP are brought into
concert, that gaps identified are filled, that conflicts in goals and plans are resolved, and that the jurisdictional
problems that lead to duplication or performance gaps are remedied.
Page 1-10 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
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Chapter One • Strategy
5. POLICY CHOICES FOR THE REGION
Considering these themes leads us to pose the several policy issues that the region must resolve in the process
of adopting this plan. Each of these policy issues is a central point of the plan, and clearly identifies the
dilemmas faced by the region as it attempts to meet multiple goals. Frequently called "trade-offs", these are
more correctly defined as complementarities, which must be treated simultaneously, a new and more difficult
means of relating to problems when pressures are great and resources limited. The lesson of the RCP must
be that planning does not involve "either-or" choices, but rather, must focus on a new approach which creates
approaches resulting in "non-zero" sum situations, situations in which all parties benefit through building on
the recognition of their mutual interdependence, common needs and shared participation in life in the Region.
Thus, for instance, the proposal for enhanced local based transit is designed not only to improve
transportation, but to create a new transportation equipment industrial cluster which serves the needs of
export, helps meet clean air goals and provides needed jobs both in manufacturing and in operations.
These dilemmas, or policy choices, facing the region are highlighted the box on page 1-13.
Page 1-12 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter One • Strategy
POLICY DILEMMAS FACING THE SCAG REGION
• Can this region find a solution which simultaneously meets both the requirements for cleaner air and
provides adeauate mobilitv,within the constraints of funding? Even though the region will be
expending billions of dollars for the mobility system, there are severe financial and environmental
constraints that must be addressed in this plan and by the region. Not only must the plan live within
reasonably available funds, which this draft plan does not, the region must also be within its air
emissions budgets in each of the air basins. These emissions budgets will be ultimately contained in the
federally approved air plans. However, comparing the estimates found in the mobility chapter for
automobile emissions with those in the 1989 and 1991 Air Quality Management Plans for the South Coast
Air Basin and for Ventura County shows that there is a substantial gap between the emissions reductions in
this plan and those required.
• How will the region find the land needed for construction to accommodate the millions of new
residents expected at affordable prices given the shrinking availability of open land for new
development? Environmental considerations place limits on the availability of new land for development,
and practical considerations demonstrate that present development patterns fail to meet the demand. What
steps must the region take to ensure that housing can be produced at acceptable prices while still meeting
environmental, transportation and other goals?
• In restructuring the governance functions, the region must develop mechanisms which at the same time
ensure timely responses to demand and economic conditions while not weakening the protections needed
for the public health and safety. What approaches can be taken to streamline the processes of review
and permitting of development to ensure that both demands are met reasonably?
• How will the region balance resource needs including water, land, air, etc— with the demands of
growth and the economy The 1987-92 draught tested the limits of availability for water, and
demonstrated the need to plan ahead. The region must rethink its resource consumption practices, to
ensure that the burdens placed by growth and economic changes do not excessively burden available
resources, and that we can ensure sustained availability for future generations as well.
• What programs and approaches to human development will be needed to meet the changing demands
of the economy? Will Southern California be able to continue supplying the human capacities to ensure
that the economy meets the goals set for the region, skills that are both of the highest level and widely
distributed in the population?
0 Will Southern California be able to take care of its communities in need? Social and economic needs
are widely distributed, but frequently focused in specific communities, and within those communities, to
individuals and families whose independence is compromised by a cluster of problems. Returning these
people to full participation in the community will require focused efforts, and the region must decide how
it will meet this need, which transcends individual local jurisdictions.
• How will'the region plan for the allocation of population, employment and new development to ensure
that the distribution is supportive of the goals of the plan and further, that the growth enhances the
capacities of local governments to supply needed services for all residents?
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-13
Chapter One • Strategy
C. A DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK FOR IMPLEMENTATION
As indicated above, this document is primarily a guide toward decision-making for local governments. But it
also establishes a new approach to this decision-making which suggests that old approaches must be revised
and new relationships established between the various centers of decision-making in order that local
governments, the private sector and the public at large be supportive of these decisions.
1 . OPPORTUNITIES FOR PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP
A primary theme of the plan is the development of an ongoing relationship between the public and private
sectors based on the recognition of their mutual interdependence. The private sector cannot resolve these
economic issues alone, nor can the public. Yet in the past, all too often they have looked to each other to
"bail out" the region by unilateral actions designed to favor a particular approach or set of interests. Even
the recent economic prosperity based on defense production was in part the result of a carefully developed
program of public investments guided toward this region, under two California presidents, Nixon and Reagan.
The change of administration following President Reagan heralded, even before the end of the Cold War, a
shift in the economic favoritism away from California and toward other areas which had been less successful
in the past, especially Texas, home to President Bush, and Washington state, home to U.S. House of
Representatives Speaker Thomas Foley.
Southern California has begun to face this reality, and this plan is the first step in organizing a response.
Much remains to be done, many issues have yet to be fully addressed, but the strategy includes:
• Conversion of military high-tech production into new products in transportation, communications,
environmental management and resource conservation.
• Focused development based on a cooperative relationship between local governments and the private
sector to facilitate the creation of industry "clusters", or groups firms in related industries which
support each other (see Chapter 2).
• An increase in the support given to the foundations of economic growth; education, training and job
development; and continued improvements in the quality of life.
2. WORKING THROUGH SUBREGIONS
The history of Southern California has been one of largely uninhibited freedom to develop and urbanize, with
only limited interference from concerns for the environment, neighbors or economic consequences beyond the
immediate benefits to the locality gaining the development. The region has now come to the recognition that
this state of affairs cannot continue now that urbanization is continuous for nearly 6,000 square-miles, and the
problems of pollution, waste, crime, traffic, etc., travel as freely across city and county boundaries as do the
winds and the rain. Yet, at the same time, local governments also strongly support the need for local
decision-making, keeping the locus of power and responsibility close to the average citizen, where true
dialogue can be encouraged, and a shared responsibility fostered in the best traditions of American
democracy.
Page 1-14 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter One • Strategy
To link the concerns of 15 or 20 million residents into effective decision-making processes, Southern
California has embarked on a unique experiment in subregional cooperation, sometimes referred to as
"bottom-up" planning, wherein the primary source of ideas and implementation authority lie at the local level,
while the collective, acting through regional agencies, examines the consequences of local actions to ensure
their consistency and support for regional goals and mandates.
SCAG has recognized the role of 13 subregions, each with its own unique history, development, economy,
and aspirations, and through them has proceeded to put together this document. Each has been called on to
formulate a subregional approach to such issues as air quality, transportation, housing, economic growth and
others, and to do so within the broad goals of the region, which are set forth in this chapter.
This coordinated, decentralized planning and implementation is a significant change. In the past, nearly 185
separate cities and counties competed with little restraint for economic advantage over their neighbors, little
caring if the long-term impacts on the region justified the temporary gains. This document sets forth the first
steps toward creating a new relationship that balances competitiveness with cooperation. New firms and
growth are emphasized, rather than redistributing existing jobs and benefits within the existing urban fabric.
The plan sets forth the first steps the region must take to redress this situation. This will be further
developed in the Financial component, to be released later as Chapter 10.
It is increasingly being recognized that only through local agreement on the goals and actions can plans and
programs be implemented effectively. Impositions from outside are usually impractical, forced, and lack the
support needed to meet their targets and goals. Numerous examples exist, the best known of which relates to
air quality. Others include housing allocations and environmental requirements for habitat protection. While
the region has had some successes, for instance in the creation of the growing network of High-Occupancy
Vehicle (HOV) lanes, other initiatives have not been well received. The plan addresses these issues and
develops an alternative approach to meeting these worthwhile goals by giving local governments and agencies
the primary responsibility for establishing the programs and actions within agreed guidelines.
The region is also working to create an alternative approach to replace mandatory adherence to requirements
imposed from above. The new approach would rely on local responsibility, acting through self-regulating and
self-correcting mechanisms that reward appropriate actions or behavior, and penalize those that tend to harm
the region's interests. This Strategy is the first statement of this approach applied to the full range of urban
planning and development activities.
3. CONSENSUS BUILDING AND DISPUTE RESOLUTION
Among the many results of the past approaches to governance has been the proclivity to resort to legal
remedy when neighboring jurisdictions undertook projects that benefitted themselves while exposing neighbors
to major impacts from traffic, water and air pollution, etc. Long recognized as a problem, but never directly
addressed before, this document, when implemented, will establish a program of alternative dispute
resolution. Based on voluntary resort to mediation and on training public officials in consensus building and
dispute avoidance, it seeks to create a more cooperative approach to planning and project implementation. It
relies on the concept that development benefits should be shared in some measure among those who also
suffer the impacts. New approaches to resolving problems resulting from continued development and change
in the region are developed and made available to all units of government, local, county, and state, as well as
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-15
1 l
Chapter One • Strategy
to the regional and subregional agencies responsible for reviewing and overseeing the broader impacts of local
actions.
The process by which the RCP is being developed represents a major departure in planning for Southern
California in a number of ways. Unlike previous plans, the RCP is not a static document: through
amendment and regular updating, it will evolve over time. Second, and, perhaps, more important, the locus
of decision-making for the region has changed. No longer will the regional body attempt to impose plans on
the region: rather, through a dynamic, "bottom-up" interactive process, plans are to be developed based on
local input with regional coordination to enable adherence to standards set in federal and state law, or by the
region. Because of this subregional process, active participation in regional planning has increased, as has
interaction among local governments.
Plan development is not the only arena in which local and subregional decisions are made. Implementation
will, in many ways, involve even tougher decisions. Urban form issues, transportation projects, air quality
measures, facility siting, uses of open space, growth management, and housing allocation, all raise the specter
of potential conflicts.
Traditionally, disputes have been dealt with in a number of ways: the issue may be put to a vote and there
are winners and losers; the issue may be avoided by not deciding; a decision can be imposed (by a higher
level of government) without any buy-in by those impacted; or, failing any other resolution, the parties
litigate. There appears to be wide-spread agreement that there must be a better, less-costly and less time-
consuming way to resolve differences.
During the past decade, many public bodies have turned to mediation or alternative dispute resolution as the
"better way". The goal is to arrive at decisions based on mutual agreement among parties. The process
assumes parties will be supportive of the decisions reached. Key to this process is consensus building, which
does not happen automatically. It often requires the use of a highly skilled third party to create an
atmosphere in which alternative approaches may be reviewed and tested, which in turn requires skill to bring
the parties together in the correct frame of mind.
Alternative dispute resolution services are now being created throughout the United States. Several states
have established mediation centers for public policy issues where both state and local agencies can obtain
assistance and support in bringing public disputes to resolution through mediation. Cities and non-profit
agencies provide services for almost every kind of dispute, including, landlord-tenant, marital, zoning and
building code, and dog-barking. Both the federal government` and the state of California' have recognized
the value of these processes.
These new approaches to resolving conflicts may take many forms. One approach might involve conducting
meetings in such a manner as to assure that there is closure on issues and that closure is reached through
consensus. Another approach, used in developing regulations, brings all the affected parties to the table. At
/See the recently adopted "Administrative Dispute Resolution Act." (5 USC f 571 at seq.)
s For example,state Senator Bergeson's proposed legislation(SB 517)provides for voluntary mediation of land use disputes.
The potential litigants have the option of choosing a mediation specialist,a council of governments, or a subregional or county-
wide council of governments to mediate the issues.
Page 1-16 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
V
Chapter One • Strategy
the federal level this has is called "negotiated rule making"' This is appropriate for issues ranging from the
- numbers used in modeling to siting of hazardous waste facilities or base closures. Using these techniques,
they often can be resolved in such a way that everyone is willing to support the agreement.
4. SELF-REGULATING MECHANISMS VS. REGULATION
Finally, and perhaps ultimately among the most important, is the decision to shift wherever possible from the
"command and control" to a more self-regulating approach to achieving legally required changes in public
behavior. This approach would apply to pollution control and abatement, to traffic management, and
potentially a wide range of other activities, where the cumulative impacts of human activities are
unacceptable, but the means to reduce them cannot be effectively managed through individual actions. Such
self regulating mechanism often come under the heading of "market based solutions" - increasing the cost of
an activity to bring the cost more directly in line with the full cost of its impacts, both private and public, and
thereby regulating its impacts. While frequently difficult to achieve, and potentially subject to abuses and
equity impacts (differential impacts on those least able to afford the added cost), well designed programs with
adequate safeguards are believed to offer a far more reasonable approach to meeting requirements than does
regulation which relies on often grudging compliance and an enforcement mechanism which is frequently
costly, unsure and arbitrary in its implementation.
r.
This approach should help to create what are called "positive sum" results, in which all parties can benefit,
rather than the more common "zero-sum" approach in which one party's gain comes largely at the expense of
others. Through a measure of regional cooperation, problems which have appeared previously beyond the
capacity of local governments to resolve could become foundations for cooperative action. Many of the
problems facing the region are a result of an inability to reach beyond the "zero-sum" paradigm in finding
cooperative approaches. The fear that the non-participant(s) in such an action would gain some specific
advantage over those who willingly take difficult actions has largely prevented such actions from occurring.
(� Examples include proposals for a regional parking strategy, competitive land use practices, economic
development, housing policies, waste treatment and others.
5. MODES OF PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION.
As noted above, past efforts to impose solutions from above have run into increasing resistance at the local
level and from the private sector. One of the aims of this Strategy is to chart a course, which, over time, can
improve compliance with regional goals by increasing the "buy-in" by local governments. This must be done
through ever growing levels of local participation in both decision-making and plan implementation. It implies
a simultaneous reduction in the centralized, coercive nature of the current process. It is hoped that this
document will ultimately lead to the creation of region-wide self-regulating mechanisms. For some purposes
these could be contracts among subregions or among regional agencies and subregions. For other purposes, in
the long-run, this might be done by establishing pricing mechanism so as to reward acceptable actions and
discourage or penalize actions that impose costs on the region.
This approach is shown in Figure 1-4, which describes a continuum of modes of governance and planning.
This continuum ranges from the Current Practice, (based on regulation largely established at the federal and
Recognizing the benefits of this approach, congress enacted the"Negotiated Rule making Act of 1990." ( 5 USC f 561
at seq.)
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-17
i
Chapter One • Strategy
state levels and enforced by regional functional agencies), to Managed Interaction, Contract Interaction and a
Simulated Market. Managed Interaction is a decision-making style in which, while regional agencies, such as
SCAG, still bear most of the responsibility for setting the directions of planning, more and more policies are
set by subregional input into the process. This is the mode toward where the region is currently moving.
The SCAG Regional Council believes managed interaction is a way station on the path to what is here called
Contract Interaction, in which goals will be achieved through contractual relationships. Some may be
contracts within subregions or among them. Regional agencies, both general purpose and functional will be
responsible for making trade-offs and will assist in dispute resolution. But there will be flexibility in both the
goals optimized at the subregional level and in the methods for reaching them. Figure 1-2 sets out the hope
that ultimately as much as possible of our regional decision making will take place in what is here called a
Simulated Market. The idea of the Simulated Market is that, at least for some functions, it can capture the
goals for particular activities through a pricing system.
It should be remembered that these are idealized types, and that within any situation, aspects of more than
one may be occurring. Thus at present some subregions may be ready to do cross-functional planning by
contract with SCAG while others are not. Similarly, strategies for dealing with air quality may at a given
point include regulations as well as markets, while other aspects of achieving improved air quality may be
handled through contract or managed interaction. While it may not be possible to achieve uniform progress
away from the current momentum and toward contract interaction and reliance on markets, the intent of this
document is to begin a process of pushing decision making in those directions.
For this decision-making framework, the range of types of interaction shown in Figure 1-2 is intended to
show alternative approaches that may be or are currently being used to deal with specific issues. In seeking
to create a mechanism for achieving a specific objective tied to the regional goals, a choice needs to be made
with regard to the most appropriate mode for decision making and for implementation. The "current
momentum" is implied in most current public policy, and relies on the top down regulatory mode. Southern
California must recognize that selection of an alternative strategy may well involve some delay while the legal
and practical basis for the alternative are designed, tested and approved by the regulatory or legislative
bodies who currently have responsibility. The SCAG Regional Council hopes that it can make clear that its
goal is to move away from the "current practice" in decision making. But, until approval to do so can be
obtained, and in order to assure the continued flow of resources from other levels of government, the region
must continue under its present regulatory obligations, which impose substantial penalties for non-compliance.
Thus, the effort to change the style of decision making in the region, like the effort to change the types of
goals provided by federal and state mandates, must be two-tracked. One effort at this point must be to
effectively meet the present regulatory requirements (and avoid the imposition of sanctions as much as to
meet the intent of the regulation). At the same time, the Regional C�wncil is committed to working toward
changing the rules to permit the new, regionally developed approach, which rests on the transfer of primary
responsibility to the subregions and local governments.
Page 1-18 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
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Chapter One • Strategy
The RCP represents the work of many agencies and organizations. In addition to SCAG, cities and counties,
county transportation commissions, air quality management districts, water quality districts, water supply
districts, state and federal agencies have all contributed plans for inclusion in this overview.
SCAG's authorities are specifically delineated in law, and are limited to planning and plan review through the
intergovernmental review process. SCAG has no implementation powers: these rest with local government or
with the single purpose agencies enumerated above. This decision-making framework seeks implementation
through two distinct avenues. First, all regional plans must be consistent in their basic assumptions and
projections. This is required in state planning law, and it means that local plans must be consistent with all
regional plans. To accomplish this, local plans, in the process of being updated, must incorporate these
regional assumptions. Once consistent, it is SCAG's intention to allow self certification of plans and projects
by local governments, since SCAG will no longer need to review them for consistency.
Second, by bringing state and regional plans from other agencies into consistent assumptions, and by
incorporating their plans into the RCP, these agencies will be working together toward the accomplishment of
these same goals, and therefore acting to implement the RCP through implementation of their own plans, now
modified to achieve the needed consistency. A major by-product of this approach is intended to be a reduction
in the number and reviews, and their cost in time and money on projects at all levels. One of the goals of
this document is to simplify the process of government to improve the delivery of public services in all
sectors, and this should be an important contribution in this direction.6.
6. MONITORING CHANGES
A final aspect of this document, one which until now has been too often ignored, is that of monitoring
changes in the progress toward achievement of regional goals on a continuing basis. This is needed to ensure
that plans and implementing programs once agreed to are in fact yielding the results intended. This cycle of
regional planning will hopefully culminate in the first use of a new tool to which all subregions and all local
governments will have access to measure this progress or the lack thereof. In making decisions about new
growth, or changes in the infrastructure of their jurisdictions, local governments and subregional
organizations will be better able to relate changes at a local level with those occurring within their subregion
and the region as a whole. They will also be able to communicate to other subregions that they are making
changes and receive timely comment on how their decisions impact their neighbors.
The idea is to develop an interactive data base that, for the first time, will link all cities with their
subregional organizations, and tie the subregions to SCAG. The tool is intended to provide a current,
convenient and common base for communicating plans and projects, for examining their impacts outside a
given jurisdiction and on other functional areas (e.g. transportation improvements on air quality) and
ultimately for the assessment of their impacts on other localities and other functions as time goes on.
This monitoring system, more fully described in Chapter 15, creates no new mandates or powers for SCAG
or the subregions. Rather, it offers local decision-makers greater ability to use existing tools and authority
effectively, thereby adding to their assurance that imposition of additional mandates can be avoided.
The proposed decision-making continuum described in this chapter is based on a new vision of local
governance, one in which local governments become more willing to assume the responsibility for achieving
regional goals because they have developed those goals and the processes developed for implementing them.
Page 1-20 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter One • Strategy
Simultaneously this vision involves embracing the recognition that to be effective, government at all levels
- must provide ready and meaningful access for all to the material, social, and political benefits conferred by
the locality and also by the region.
D. CAVEATS
This document represents the current state of thinking on each of the subjects covered, but does not reflect
any decision on how to structure the RCP in order to maximize the expression of the relationships between
the components. SCAG's Standing Committee on Planning will be reviewing this structure to determine how
the document should finally be organized: whether as discrete elements, as broad themes, or as a unified
strategy for the region.
Further, it must be clearly stated at the outset that this is a draft plan: several important policy decisions
remain to be taken before the final document can be prepared. The most important of these concern the
distribution pattern of the anticipated population growth and the final shape of the mobility program to be
recommended. In particular, there is a continuing discussion between the older, more urbanized areas of the
region and the newer, rapidly urbanizing areas over the relative rates of growth for both employment and
population, and the resulting stress these patterns might place on facilities and on local government finances.
Z
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-21
1
it
III
IIII
III
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THE ECONOMY
r
• Regional Economic Goals
• Mapping the Region's Economy
• Long-Term Economic Forecast for the SCAG Region
• Strategies for Economic Prosperity and Equity
A. INTRODUCTION
The SCAG region is a formidable economic entity. With an estimated gross regional product of more than
$360 billion, the SCAG region's economy is the 12th largest in the world—between those of Spain and India.
During the two decades following 1970, the region's population increased by 4.6 million, an amount
equivalent to adding a state the size of Minnesota to SCAG's six counties. Between 1972 and 1990 a
remarkable 2.8 million jobs were created in the region, an average annual increase of 3.6 percent. And
personal income regionwide rose from just over $4,800 per capita in 1970 to $20,600 twenty years later.
This is an impressive economic record, certainly among the best, in terms of the sheer magnitude of change,
of any region in the world.
Few countries with an economy as large as that of Southern California operate without some form of
economic game plan. Yet this chapter on The Economy is the first of its kind in any SCAG plan. The
rationale for it, at this juncture in Southern California's economic history, should be clear to anyone living in
ar the SCAG-region today. The regional economy is mired in the most serious recession since the 1930s and
there is widespread concern about the future of its economic base.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-1
Chapter Two • The Economy
Once before, in the early 1970s, the SCAG economy faced the need to find new areas of economic growth as
deep post-Vietnam defense spending cuts hit the nation and region. Once before, the need to begin economic
transition emerged at the same time that a national recession pushed unemployment rates more than 10
percent.
During the 1970s and 1980s the regional economy outpaced the nation in job growth although defense jobs
never regained 1967 levels and fell sharply as a share of the region's economic base. The region prospered
by developing new areas of economic strength and competitiveness. The region's firms and workers saw
where new opportunities were emerging and responded successfully.
The length and depth of the current recession has caused people to ask whether the region's economy is
facing more than just another period of transition and change. There is a lack of confidence about whether
the region's firms and workers can, once again, identify and take advantage of new opportunities.
The Southern California Association of Governments' Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) examines the
future of the region during the next 20 years. Previous .regional plans have focused principally on
transportation, housing, growth management, and air quality issues, without specifying their:impacts on the
economy. This plan, by contrast, starts with the premise that a healthy regional economy is a prerequisite for
successful implementation of policies in these other areas.
Additionally, in the past, components of the regional plans were developed in a fairly traditional public policy
process within SCAG and its family of local government constituencies. This chapter on The Economy was
developed using a completely different approach—with early and broad involvement of business and
community groups.
This process began in June 1992 with two days of economic transition strategies workshops in which
business, government, labor, academic, and community group leaders collectively analyzed the causes of the
severe recession and the economic transitions facing the region and explored regional strategies for economic
recovery. During the period since those intensive working sessions, a volunteer consortium of business and
community associations coordinated by the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce and the 2000 Regional
Partnership has been meeting to refine the strategy. The Economy is a product of these efforts together with
those of SCAG.
This chapter is an assessment of the SCAG region economy. What are its strengths and weaknesses? Where
do the future opportunities lie? What needs to be done to enhance the region's competitiveness in the national
and world economy? Chapter 2 is divided into five sections:
A. Introduction
B. Regional Economic Goals
1. Prosperity: Real Income Growth
2. Equity: Ensuring Economic Gains Are Broadly Shared
C. Mapping the Region's Economy
1. The Economic Base
2. The Impact of Recession
Page 2-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
4
Chapter Two • The Economy
3. Economic Transitions
4. The Issue of Economic Competitiveness
D. Long-Term Economic Forecast for the SCAG Region
E. Strategies for Economic Prosperity and Equity
1. Introduction: The Need for a Regional Focus
2. Regional Economic Strategies Consortium (RESC)
3. Strategies to Expand and Diversify the Region's Economic Base
4. Strategies to Promote Regional Competitiveness
5. Strategies for Investment in "Communities-In-Need"
E
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-3
z • s
Chapter Two • The Economy
B. REGIONAL ECONOMIC GOALS
In view of the region's economic history and its current circumstances, what are the appropriate goals at
which policy makers should be aiming? A multitude of economic targets can be envisioned, but most, on
closer inspection, will turn out to be intermediate in nature. The fundamental economic goal of regional
planning must be to improve the welfare or standard of living of those who work and reside there'.
Unfortunately, standard of living is a subjective concept; planning requires objective criteria. The statistical
measure that comes closest is real personal income . Aims such as increasing the number of jobs or
maintaining the competitiveness of regional industries—which are discussed later in this chapter—are really
intermediate objectives to be met in order to grow personal incomes in the region. Hand in hand with income
growth must be the broad goal of equity: ensuring that everyone participates in the growth of prosperity.
1 . PROSPERITY: REAL INCOME GROWTH
Real personal income (personal income adjusted for inflation) is the broadest single statistical measure of
well-being or standard of living. As such, growth of real income is more important as a regional economic
target than growth of jobs alone. To provide a meaningful measure of progress in achieving prosperity, we
need a unit by which the dollar value of total personal income in the region can be divided. Here there are
several choices: standard measures include real personal income per household,per family,per capita, and
per worker.
For purposes of a regional economic strategy, neither income per family nor income per household seem
appropriate. Household formation and family size are both influenced by many variables that are not directly
related to the state of the regional economy: culture, religion, and ethnicity to name a few.
Real personal income per capita is probably the least biased of measures, but it suffers from the drawback
that rapid growth in the population (including that caused by immigration) at certain times may cause
distortions. Expressing the total on a per-employee basis would not take account of the effect of changes in
unemployment. However, if we were to use the number of members of the labor force (both employed and
unemployed) as the denominator, this distortion would be eliminated.
Figure 2-1 shows the history of real income on both a per capita basis and a per labor force member basis in
the region since 1980. The last major recession (1981-82) shows up clearly in the form of declines in real
income, as does the current slump. What is particularly troubling in connection with the current downturn is
that it was coupled with a noticeable diminution in the rate of growth of real income on a per capita basis
since about 1984. Put another way, per capita real income growth had already been slowing for several years
when this recession hit.
Income targets for 2010 should be phrased in terms of growth rates of real income between 1990 and 2010,
with both a minimum and a moderate goal. For example, expressed in per capita terms, the minimum
acceptable growth rate could be zero; i.e., Minimum = no further decline. This would meats that personal
income in the region would have to grow each year at least as fast as the rate of inflation plus the rate of
Subregion input:San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities.
=Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo Subregion.
Page 2-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
population growth. In 1992, for example, personal income would have had to grow by roughly 5 percent to
meet this target.
The "moderate" income growth target could
be to match the performance of the last Figure 2-1
inter-censal period, that is, Moderate = per
capita real income growth per annum at its Att�mrttlw M�asuras of Real Personal Incomes-SCAB Region
(1 W-ea Constant Dollars)
average rate during the 1980s. This would *22m
mean, for the region as a whole, an annual
compound increase on the order of 0.7 i°0°D
percent. n.Lt!..bW 0*WAW:
tao66 6ao.600
Enhancing the standard of living of the
region's inhabitants is an appropriate ' ' 'a
economic goal. But it does not address
many of the concerns reflected in the quality �
of life goal contained in the Strategy chapter P_COW ft`t'�''l
622 00o
$tatxo
(Chapter 1) of this Plan. These are
addressed directly in other chapters of the X0000
RCP under the headings mobility, air IM "a' t.82 t..a 12sd tas 120 ta" Ina ta. 1260 196t 16ar
quality, housing, Sm—aGa human resources and 'a°'°"" b..ds1/ —per
Wk. �"`'0"° of V"
-kdti lyd-W*a D s 1 M �k A-irk U.S.Wp r 10—
services, water quality, etc. However, the
strategies recommended in this chapter seek
to ensure that cost-effective means are utilized to achieve the region's quality of life goal?
2. EQUITY: ENSURING ECONOMIC GAINS ARE BROADLY SHARED
It is not enough that the region experience growth in average real income. The second goal of this chapter of
the RCP is that the region's gains in economic prosperity are shared broadly by residents throughout the
region'. Both this goal and the previous one are "grass roots" in the sense that they were agreed upon by
business, government, labor, academic and community group representatives in SCAG's work over the past
two years on the Economic Component.
Southern California is probably the most diverse region of its size in the world. The region's population
includes residents of very different cultural backgrounds, educational attainment, work experience, skills and
income. Our diversity is so great that regional prosperity cannot be achieved unless all major groups
participate.
Note that a goal of broadly shared prosperity does not imply a strategy of redistributing today's income.
Strategies to ensure that future economic gains are broadly distributed are based, by contrast, on expanding
opportunity and the commitment of business and government leaders to recognize that individuals and
s 'For an extended discussion of the competitive aspects of quality of life,please see sections on '7he Issue of Economic Competitiveness'
and 'Public-Private Cooperation to Aid Business Competitiveness'later in this chapter. Subregion input: Los Angeles City,Western Riverside
Council of Governments.
i
'Subregion input:Los Angeles City.
SCAG 0 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-5
Chapter Two • The Economy
communities left behind today must be made full partners in the growth of tomorrow's economy. A regional
economic strategy for so-called communities-in-need is discussed in Section D.
Finally, with respect to those concerns of quality-of-life goal listed in the Strategy chapter, they will be
addressed in other chapters, such as Regional Mobility, Air Quality, Human Resources and Services, Water
Quality, etc. However, the strategies recommended in this chapter require that this region exercise a cost-
effective approach to achieve our quality of life goal.'
N.B. The recommendations contained in this chapter to fulfill the stated goals and objectives do not
create new legal mandates for local governments or other regional organizations.
'For further and extended discussion of a competitive quality of life,please see sections on '7he Issue of Economic Competitiveness'and
'Public-Private Cooperation to Aid Business Competitiveness.', below. Subregion input: Los Angeles City, West Riverside Council of
Governments.
I
Page 2-6 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
C. MAPPING THE REGION'S ECONOMY
Three main factors account for Southern California's economic predicament in the early 1990s: (1) the severe
economic recession which began in mid-1990, (2) a series of economic transitions or structural
changes—including defense spending cuts—that were already underway when the recession struck, and (3)
deterioration in the region's business climate and competitiveness.
We return to these factors below, but before we can appreciate their impact we need to examine the nature of
the regional economy. How does it work? What are the major sectors? What are its strengths and
weaknesses, its opportunities and challenges? How did the region fare in the wake of the defense cuts and
recession that occurred 20 years ago?
A regional economic strategy must be based on more than responding to today's headlines. What strategies
are needed for the next 20 years? Given the opportunities and challenges, what are the likely dimensions of
growth in the region between now and 2010—how many new jobs and people are likely?
Section 1, below, describes the SCAG region economic base at the beginning of the period covered by the
Regional Comprehensive Plan.
1 . THE ECONOMIC BASE
The rate of job growth in the SCAG economy is primarily determined by growth in the region's economic
base. Basic industries—the industries included in the regions's economic base—make a substantial share of
their sales to customers outside of the region.' That is, they export goods and services to customers
elsewhere in California, throughout the nation, and throughout the world. Selling outside the boundaries of
the region is what brings new income in.
To be sure we are clear on terms, note that the word "industry" is used here in a generic sense, to denote any
type of productive activity. That is, "services" provided by a business qualify as industries under this
definition. Examples would be the banking industry, health care industry, etc. However, not all services
industries are "basic" in the sense of exportable (able to be sold outside the region. Finally, note that
exportable does not necessarily mean consumed outside the region. Tourists consume our goods and services
within the region, but the tourism industry is nevertheless 'basic because the money tourists spend comes
from outside the area. A list of basic and non-basic industries is contained in the Technical Appendix to this
chapter.
Aircraft, apparel, motion pictures, computer services, plastics, and amusements are all key industries in the
region's economic base. Other parts of the economic base include the rest of manufacturing, air
transportation, parts of the wholesale trade, hotel, and business services industries, as well as part of the
services provided by the region's hospitals and universities, which serve people from outside the region.
i
Manufacturing activities have been and will continue to be an important part of the SCAG region economic
E base. Manufacturing activities create both direct production jobs and jobs in many related industries.
'Basic industries arc defined as those whose output can be exported as well as sold in the region. So called'non-basic"industries(mainly
f services),by contrast, are sold only in the home market. Construction and education are examples of the latter.
f
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-7
1 -
1
Chapter Two • The Economy
However, manufacturing jobs have been a steadily declining share of the national economic tease as well as
that of the region. For example, between 1979 and 1993 the U.S. economy added 20 million jobs while the
number of manufacturing jobs fell by more than 3 million. Even through the current national job recovery,
manufacturing jobs have declined steadily.
Manufacturing is very important to the region's prosperity, but it is not the only base sector with future
opportunities. Non-manufacturing activities, like tourism, entertainment, and professional services, have
become a significant component of the SCAG region economic base. As shown below, most of the job
growth in the region's economic base has and will continue to occur outside of manufacturing.
To reiterate, the SCAG region's economic base is the appropriate focus for developing economic strategies.
• Exportable goods and services are subject to intense competition. A regional
competitiveness strategy means being competitive in basic industries. Growth
in jobs and sales in the region depends on how well the region's firms and
workers compete—often with locations throughout the world. People
involved in basic industries—whether in manufacturing apparel, filming a
motion picture, or deciding where to vacation—have a choice.
• Growth in the economic base will determine the opportunities for job growth
and increases in income in the rest of the economy. Prospects for
employment growth in supporting activities like retail trade, medical services,
construction, and local education depend on employment expansion in basic
industries. Regions with the fastest growing economic bases have the highest
rates of overall employment growth.
Page 2-8 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
a. The Region's Changing Economic Base
The number of jobs in the SCAG region's economic base expanded by almost 50 percent between 1972 and
1992. Most of the new basic jobs were created in the region's service sectors—not in the production of
goods.
As shown in Table 2-1, the two fastest-growing sectors were professional services and tourism and
entertainment, with job gains of more than 100 percent. Employment in basic transportation and wholesale
trade activities increased by almost 60 percent. All of these sectors benefitted from increases in foreign as
well as domestic purchases.
Table 2-1
SCAG Region Economic Base*
Thousands of Jobs
Percent
Change
1972 1992 1972-1992
Professional Services 328.5 798.8 143.2%
Diversified Manufacturing 673.9 721.8 7.1%
Transportation& Wholesale Trade 329.5 526.5 59.8%
Tourism & Entertainment 107.0 248.3 132.1%
Defense Related 250.1 236.2 -5.6%
Resource Based 78.6 116.8 48.6%
High Technology Manufacturing 80.9 111.9 38.3%
Total 1,848.3 2,760.3 49.3%
*The industries (SIC Codes) contained in each of the 7 groups in the table kill be found in the Technical Appendix to this
chapter.
The three manufacturing groups shown in the table—defense related, high technology, and the large
diversified manufacturing sector—had only modest employment growth. However,
Figure 2-2 shows that output (in billions of dollars) in the manufacturing sector grew steadily—increasing by
50% percent in real terms.
This trend of continued growth of output with much smaller (if any) growth in jobs has been experienced
throughout most manufacturing sectors in the national and world economies. It is explained by gains in
productivity—output per worker—that result from education, training, and the use of more, and more
sophisticated, capital equipment in each job.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-9
y • 1
Chapter Two • The Economy
Fgure 2-2
Manufacturing: The Effects of Productivity
SCAG Region Output and Employment
160 1,500
150
-------------- ———— 1,400
___
y -------------- — --1,300�
140 ____ _ �— 2
� (riglasca{e)�t---'�— ------ 1,200 6
0 130 ----- --- -—————————1,1001-0
o ---� -- ——————————1,000
m 120-,
——--(left stele) r
———— ------900 f-
110 800
I I 700
�91�191 91y 1 9r91�A1 990 9�9�9t 09 'b19�990 9��1
—Production --Jobs
Let's take a look at recent key developments in the region's economic base.
b. The Shrinking Role of Defense
The defense-related sector of the region's economic base is no longer large in terms of job levels compared
with other sectors.' In fact, as shown in Figure 2-3, defense activities have declined substantially as a share
of the region's economic base. Yet continuing defense spending cuts loom large in the minds of most
Southern Californians as an impediment to future economic growth.
The SCAG region economy is currently experiencing its second major decline in defense related employment
since the 1960s. After the Vietnam War, defense-related jobs fell sharply—from 367,800 in 1967 to 250,100
in 1972— and stayed relatively stable until a new defense buildup began in 1979.
Between 1972 and 1979, jobs in the SCAG region grew faster than in the nation despite the stagnation in
defense employment. Figure 2-4 clearly illustrates this development. As a result, the share of defense jobs
in the region's economic base fell each year in the 1970s until the 1979 defense buildup.
The most recent defense spending peak in the region was in the mid-1980s. Defense-related jobs topped out
in 1986-87 at slightly more than 330,000, and by mid-1993 had declined to just over 200,000. During the
'The defense-related sector includes aircraft,missiles&space,search and navigation equipment,shipbuilding&repair,and federal civilian
defense jobs. In these sectors,a significant share of activity is defense related. Some defense spending creates jobs in other industries in which
not all production is defense related. The aircraft industry, for example,actually sells more than half its production in Commercial markets.
In 1991,shipments of commercial transport planes totaled 526.9 billion nationwide compared to 512.2 billion for military,aimra8.
Page 2-10 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
,r
Chapter Two • The Economy
first years of defense spending cuts the regional economy continued to grow faster than the nation until the
onset of severe recession in 1990.
Figure 2-3
Defense Sector's Share of Regional Economy
(Percent)
16.09E
14.0%
12.0%
10.091
8.0%
6.0%
4.09E
2.0% p
Share of All Jobs ❑Share of Base Jobs
r
Figure 2-4
Regional Employment Grew Despite Defense Cuts
Fr SCAG Region Defense Jobs and Share of Total U.S.Employment
400 5.8%
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII �.II
350
I IIIIIilllllllll
0300 7-1 Trrm-rTrrrn 'rr � 58X�
I I I a►R 1�4�.r_I I I I �.1 1 1 1 I_I
-I -__ I I 1 I 11.1 5.5x '
. rir:.L.dr I I
e J_11LLL ILLL•L9111LLL1�' 5.4%zi
200 I
.-1 5.3%T
50- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l•I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I
+� -1 ���-1-H-��+� �H a 52% 1
0100 I I I I I I.f l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l
5.1%a
l' ; 1tttt-Fl�fitt T-f-N� ttt rH1 -
50- '-1-r T r'r r r-I-1 T T r r r-n-T-r r r rr-i 5.0%
p IIIIIIIIIIII111111111111 49%
o ► e e o ti
�9b
One defense-related industry in Southern California that has been hit hard not only by defense cuts but also
by the current global recession is aircraft. The business downturn has brought a sharp decline in commercial
SCA G • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-11
Chapter Two • The Economy
sales to both domestic and foreign customers. For all U.S. suppliers, the number of new firm orders for
civilian aircraft dropped from 1,015 in 1989 to 231 in 1992.
Defense spending will continue to fall for the foreseeable future. Even at reduced levels, however, the
numbers involved are still huge. Federal purchases will continue to exceed $200 billion per year for the next
several years, and retention of the region's competitive position in these markets is therefore a critical
objective.
c. A Growing Role for International Trade
Foreign trade has emerged as a major sector in the region's economic base. The volume of merchandise
trade through the Los Angeles Customs District has grown from $6.2 billion in 1972 to $121.8 billion in
1992 (see Table 2-2). Total trade, imports and exports combined, has increased by 16.0%per year for the
past 20 years—a true growth industry!
Table 2-2
Los Angeles Customs District
Total Merchandise Trade
($ Billions)
Average Annual
Growth Rate
1972 1992 1972-1992
Exports $1.9 $49.4 17.6%
Imports $4.3 $72.4 15.2%
Total Trade $6.2 $121.8 16.0%
The impact of international trade on the region is even larger than these statistics suggest. Trade in services,
which is not included in the Customs District data, is growing even faster than trade in goods. For every $3
in goods trade, there is now an additional $1 worth of trade in services such as banking, insurance, and
tourism.
A precise count of jobs associated with foreign trade is not available, but they are numerous ;and spread
throughout most sectors of the regional economy. The rule of thumb used by the U.S. Department of
Commerce is that for every additional $1 billion of U.S. exports, 19,000 jobs are created. International trade
creates jobs in three major ways:
• Through the manufacture of goods in the region
Leading exports from the region (1992) include Transportation equipment
($8.0 billion), electrical equipment ($5.6 billion), office machinery ($4.6
billion), miscellaneous manufactured goods ($2.7 billion), and professional
scientific and control instruments ($2.4 billion).
Page 2-12 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
• Through goods delivery
The $121.8 billion in trade in 1992 supported thousands of jobs in the
trucking, wholesale trade, railroad, shipping, and air cargo industries.
• Through trade in services
Air travel and accommodations for tourist and business travelers is the largest
area of trade in services. However, many other areas are taking off.
Rapidly-growing markets include software and entertainment products (video,
music), professional services, and education and health (foreign visitors using
the region's universities and medical centers).
In addition, the region is a major center for deal making. Foreign trade
requires financial, legal and other professional services. The SCAG region
has developed into a major international business and financial center during
the past two decades.
Fortunately, the recession so far does not appear to have hurt the value of international trade passing through
the Los Angeles Customs District. Without foreign trade as a buffer, unemployment in the region would
today be even higher than it already is.
d. Exports
The value of exports rose 9.2 percent in 1991, virtually the same as in 1990, and a further gain of 7.5% was
posted in 1992 (see Figure 2-5). Considering the severity of the downturn in economic activity and
employment in other sectors of the regional economy, these growth rates, although slower than in the 1988-
90 period, nonetheless can be considered quite good.
1 Figure 2-5
Growth of Exports Through L.A. Customs District
so%
t l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l
70%
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
60%
50%
i
40% t
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I
30% I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
20%
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
10%
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
0%
-10%
I I I I I I I I I i l l l l l l l l
YEAR
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-13
Chapter Two • The Economy
Other things equal, export growth depends more on changes in real economic activity abroad than it does on
real growth in the region. The slowdown in export growth through LACD in the 1990-92 period reflects
weaker GDP growth in Japan, other Asian economies and Europe in the past few years.
e. Imports
On the import side, however, weaker demand for foreign (mainly Asian and Latin American) products both
here and elsewhere in the United States stalled import growth through the L.A. Customs District at only 3.3
percent in 1991 (see Figure 2-6). As import prices rose by more than this, the volume of goods handled fell,
resulting, undoubtedly, in some loss of employment in the goods handling and transport areas. Surprisingly,
the preliminary 1992 data showed import growth through the district up 8.5 percent, fairly close to the
growth rates of 1987-89.
Figure 2-6
Growth of Imports Through L.A. Customs District
so%
I I I I I I I I I i l l l l l l l l
I I I I I i l l l l l l l l l i l l
40%
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
30% I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
I I I I I
I I i l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20% i l l l l l I 1 1 1 1 1 1
V I I I I I I I I I I I
I I I I I I I I I i l i l l l l l l
( I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0%
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
I I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-10%
YEAR
f. Share of total U.S. trade
The pattern of export and import growth through the Los Angeles Customs District in the past few years
reflects trends in merchandise trade throughout the country. In fact, as Figure 2-7 shows, the LACD has
steadily increased its share of U.S. trade—on both the export and the import side of the ledger—since the
early 1970s.
Page 2-14 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
Figure 2-7
Los Angeles Customs District
Share of U.S. Merchandise Trade
14%
12%
10%
6%
6%
4%
2%
YEAR
Exports ❑Imports
c
Despite the region's deep recession and slow gross domestic product (GDP) growth for some large trading
partners such as Japan, in 1992 the overall volume of trade through the area's ports increased by 8.1
percent—still outpacing the 7.7 percent national increase. In 1993 the Los Angeles Customs District passed
New York as the nation's largest center for foreign trade.
The SCAG regional economic forecast recognizes the opportunities from foreign trade. All national
forecasters expect foreign trade to grow at roughly twice the rate of the domestic economy in the years
ahead—even without including added growth in exports from the proposed North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA).
International trade will remain a key component of the region's changing economic base. Strategies to
enhance the region's competitiveness as a center for international trade and investment are a significant
component of the regional economic strategy outlined in Section D.
- g. Tourism and Entertainment: Star Performers
Tourism and entertainment is one of the most important growth sectors in the region's economic base. As
defined in our tables, this sector includes the hotel, motion picture, and amusement industries. Tourism
creates employment in other sectors as well, such as restaurants, retail stores, car rental agencies and air
travel.
From a base of 107,000 jobs in 1972, the sector expanded by more than 130 percent to include almost
250,000 jobs in 1992. This was the region's second highest employment growth rate, after Professional
Services. Another sign of the impact of tourism and entertainment in Southern California is that in 1992, for
the first time, these industries provided more jobs than the defense-related sector (see Figure 2-8). Moreover,
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-15
0 r �
Chapter Two • The Economy
the region increased its share of the national industry steadily until 1992, when recession and the civil
disturbances halted growth temporarily.
Figure 2-S
Tourism and Entertainment Sector Overtakes Defense
Thousands of Jobs
400
950 \
300 \ /
250
200
150
100
50
—Defense Related —Tourism and Entert.
The long-term outlook for tourism and entertainment is positive. Rising incomes nationwide and worldwide
will support above-average growth rates in all segments of these industries. Moreover, they provide jobs at a
variety of wage levels from high-wage full-time jobs in motion pictures and television to lower-wage full- and
part-time jobs in the hotel and amusement sectors.
The tourism and entertainment sector will continue to make a significant contribution to the regional economy
as long as firms in the region are able to maintain their competitive position in this rapidly changing industry.
The short-term picture has been mixed.
0 The recession and riots both depressed the tourism industry in 1992.
• On the other hand, film starts reached a record high in 1993 and Southern California's share of U.S.
film production is on the rise again. Within SCAG's six counties, where total wage and salary
employment is still running 1-2 percent below year-ago levels, employment in the motion picture
industry has been 12-15% above year-earlier levels—the only large sector with job growth anywhere
near double-digits.
For the long term, the sector has been a star performer, as Figure 2-9 illustrates. Moreover, Disney is
moving ahead with plans for a major expansion of Disneyland in Anaheim and Universal is growing its
amusement holdings.
Page 2-16 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
Whether the region's share of U.S. and world employment in these areas can continue to climb is a question
for our regional economic strategy. Both the tourism and entertainment industries have raised concerns about
the competitiveness of this area as a home base—in particular regarding permitting and regulatory issues.
h. Diversified Manufacturing: A Traditional Regional Strength
One way that the SCAG region economy overcame past defense cuts was capitalizing on growth opportunities
elsewhere in manufacturing. Between 1972 and 1989, jobs in the region's
]Figure 2-9
Tourism and Entertainment
SCAG Region Share of U.S. Jobs (Percent)
9.2%
9.0%-,
6.6%
8.4%
9.2%
8.0%1
7.8%
7.6%
7.4%
7.2%
7.0%
diversified manufacturing sector increased by more than 150,000 while similar jobs declined nationwide. As
a result, the regional share of the national sector grew from 4.3 percent in 1972 to 5.4 percent in 1989.
With more than 700,000 jobs even in the current recession, diversified manufacturing remains a significant
component of the region's economic base. The largest industries in the sector in terms of production and jobs
are apparel, fabricated metal products, plastics, chemicals, publishing, and furniture. While a small portion
of this sector serves defense industries, the vast majority of jobs are linked to civilian markets.
Apparel has been one of the star performers with a steadily growing local job base even though deep job
declines have been experienced nationwide (see Figure 2-10). In 1992 apparel accounted for 110,800 jobs
and textiles another 13,500. Together apparel and textile production was almost $10 billion and accounted
for more jobs than the aircraft sector. Apparel has prospered in the face of foreign competition because Los
Angeles has become an international design center.
Since 1989, the region's diversified manufacturing sector has declined in absolute size and lost a share of the
national job pool. Part of the decline is associated with defense cuts and part with the region's deep
construction slump. However, some diversified manufacturing firms have left the region for other reasons,
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-17
Chapter Two • The Economy
and there is deep concern that a deteriorating business climate is threatening the region's competitive position
in this key sector.
Figure 2-10
Apparel Jobs in the SCAG Region
(in Thousands and as a % of U.S. Apparel Jobs)
120 12
110 ---------------------- 11
T ------------------ 1-- 10
01� /� ai
n _---- 9
---------------
v go-
80- (rlpht scale) n
--- -------��-------- 7
t7- 70 / 8
60 ��-------------------- 5
5o 4
q'f�'q�01�g4bOlgq'C 01°O'P.�4♦��d14, 14P P�A��4♦41
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
—Percent of U.S. —noousands of Jobs
Regaining a competitive advantage for diversified manufacturing industries is one key focus for the regional
economic strategy outlined below.
i. Professional Services Are the Region's Biggest Employer
Professional service industries have become the largest sector in the region's economic base with almost
800,000 jobs in 1992. Job growth has been very rapid with a gain of more than 140 percent since 1972.
Moreover, professional services will provide the largest component of potential future job growth in the
region's economic base.
The region serves markets throughout California, the nation, and worldwide in industries like software,
engineering and management services, and portions of the legal services, business services, and higher-
education sectors.
Professional services often serve manufacturing industries. For example, Southern California is a major
center for automobile design despite the absence of substantial car production in the region.
The competition for professional service jobs, usually paying high wages, points out the challenge in
developing a competitiveness strategy for the region. While mature manufacturing industries often rank labor
and other business costs as the dominant location factor, professional service industries more often value a
Page 2-18 • December 1993 SCAG * Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
highly educated work force and quality of life considerations such as good schools, efficient transportation, a
healthy environment, and world class recreation and entertainment opportunities.
j. High Technology: Jobs for the Future
National and worldwide demand for the products of technology will make sales of technology-based goods
and services a leading growth market in the 1990s and beyond. Traditional measure of high-technology
manufacturing included the computer, electronic components, and instruments sectors. Now, however,
growth is also becoming significant in other markets such as environmental technology, bio-tech, and
advanced transportation technology.
Historically, defense-related industries have dominated the region's technology sector while the civilian sector
has been larger to the north in Silicon Valley. Public—private partnership efforts now underway, like
CALSTART and Project California, represent an attempt by the region and state to seize the initiative and
stake out a substantial competitive position in the technology markets of the future. A significant component
of the regional economic strategy elaborated in Section E is likewise devoted to this end.
2. THE IMPACT OF RECESSION
The recession that struck California and the nation in the middle of 1990 still has not relaxed its grip on the
SCAG region, even though signs of a recovery in the U.S. economy have been evident for more than a year.
The text and graphs below illustrate the seriousness of this recession vis-a-vis previous business cycles in
Southern California, in terms of employment, unemployment, taxable sales, construction, home prices, and
local government revenues.
• Employment
Figure 2-11 on the next page shows year-to-year percentage changes in the number of people employed in the
SCAG region. This figure traces the effects of business cycle recessions and recoveries from the early 1970s
through the early 1990s. National (and regional) recessions occurred in 1974-75, 1981-82, and from mid-
1990 onward. The bars below the line represent absolute declines (negative changes) in employment.
What is striking is the trend in job losses over time, with each recession resulting in a larger percentage
decline than its predecessor. In addition to being deeper, the current recession in this area is already more
prolonged than the 1974-75 and 1981-82 episodes. Employment fell by roughly 3 percent in both 1991 and
1992 and will register a further drop in 1993.
Expressed in terms of the number of jobs lost, non-farm payroll employment in the SCAG region peaked in
December 1989. Between that point and the middle of 1993, more than 550,000 wage and salary jobs
disappeared in the 6-county area. To put that figure into perspective, for every 100 jobs lost in California
during this recession, 75 were from the SCAG region; nearly 65 of those jobs came from Los Angeles
County alone.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-19
1 1
Chapter Two • The Economy
Figure 2-11
GROWTH OF EMPLOYMENT* IN SCAG REGION
PERCENT
8
6
4 �
2
0
_2
Source: Employment Development Department.
' Non-Agricultural Wage and Salary Employment
• Unemployment
Figure 2-12 shows how the number of job seekers unable to find work has ballooned since 1989. While it is
true that a rise in the number of people looking for work is partly a function of(working-age) population
growth, the graph shows that unemployment can also fall even when population is steadily increasing: notice
the downward trend in the number of jobless between 1983 and 1988, a period during which the labor force
in Southern California grew by 16 percent.
Page 2-20 • December 1993 9CAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
Figure 2-12
YEARLY AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE SCAG REGION'
(Thousands)
We
X00
60D
v
e
0
0
r
400
900 '
•SCAG Mft+ s based m dRS p mded br EffViq a ff Oe"MPfew DePWft—"
r
It is also evident from Figure 2-12 that the jump in the number of people out of work during the current
recession has already surpassed that of the 1981-82 recession. Worse, unemployment is a so-called "lagging"
economic indicator, meaning that it continues to rise even after the trough of the business cycle has been
passed. At this writing, we have no solid signs that the latter has occurred; thus we can anticipate yet higher
jobless totals for 1993 and probably 1994 as well.
r
Figure 2-13
TAXABLE SALES IN THE SCAG REGION, 1984-1992'
REAL VALUE ADJUSTED BY 1082-1064 AVERAGE CPI
I
120
100
z
Z
O00
J
J
m
49
40
YEAR
C
Source:State Board of Equalization_
• 1992 figure is estimated based on the first quarter number
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-21
4
Chapter Two • The Economy
• Real taxable sales
The revenue derived from taxes on sales is a crucial component of the revenue structure of state, county, and
municipal governments in California. Retail trade is also a major source of jobs. In 1992, this sector
provided nearly a million jobs, slightly less than 15 percent of the regional total.
Figure 2-13 illustrates the impact of the ongoing recession on taxable sales in the six-county SCAG region.
The graph shows sales adjusted for the effects of inflation; it thus portrays the volume of activity. Between
1989 and 19928, real taxable sales (i.e., adjusted for inflation) plunged by 13.9 percent and continued to fall.
In the last recession (1981-82), by contrast, real taxable sales declined by only 7.9 percent before heading up
again. Thus state and local governments have taken a serious, prolonged revenue hit.
Figure 2-14
'TOTAL • OF •
SCAG REGION, :0
..
M 15
w to
I Source Construction industry Research Board
• Permit activity
Building permits are a leading indicator of construction activity. Figure 2-14 shows the dollar value of
planned construction represented by permits issued throughout the region for all uses—residential,
commercial and industrial. (Similar graphs for each of these three uses can be found in Appendix 2.)
In 1990, as business activity fell and unemployment began to rise, vacancy rates in commercial buildings also
started to rise and enterprises ceased investing in unneeded space. Housing demand ebbed and the upshot has
been a precipitous drop in building permit valuation since 1989. The subsequent downturn in construction
activity—which had not ceased as of mid-1993—explains the unprecedented fall in construction employment
of late 1991 and 1992. All in all, the recent experience makes the previous (1982) cyclical downturn in
permits look like a tiny dip.
1992 figure is estimated by SCAG based on the first quarter 1992 number.
Page 2-22 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
• Home prices and their impact on local government revenues.
Having risen by 10-20 percent or more in both 1988 and 1989, prices of existing single-family homes
suddenly dropped throughout most of the SCAG region in 1990 and 1991 (see Figure 2-15). The exception
was the Riverside-San Bernardino MSA, where existing home prices kept climbing, although at a much
slower pace.
Along with the drop in value of individual transactions, turnover (number of homes sold) slumped, seriously
affecting government receipts from property taxes. The commercial and industrial building market was, if
anything, a worse drag on local government finances.
Combined with the slump in sales tax receipts, the turnaround in property tax revenues put local government
(city and county) in its worst fiscal straits in decades. The result? Cost-cutting efforts that invariably
involved layoffs, aggravating the unemployment situation.
Figure 2-15
MEDIAN SALE PRICE OF EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
(%Change trom year-earlier)
PERCENT
30 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
25
I I I I I I I I I
20
I I I I I I I I I
15
i I I I I I I I i
10
5 I I I I
I
0 CIR I I I I mitj
-5
I I I I I I I I I
-10
1983 19M 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
Los Angeles ❑Orange ®RN/SB ®Ventura
3. ECONOMIC TRANSITIONS
In addition to the deleterious effects of the 1990-93(?) recession, and undoubtedly more important in the long
run, the region was simultaneously confronting profound economic transitions, or structural changes. The
principal ones identified in SCAG's work with area businesses are the following:
e Reduced defense spending, including the impacts of base closures.
e Implementation of air quality regulations.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-23
Chapter Two • The Economy
O Impacts on industry.
o Impacts on transportation and land use.
• Changing demographics of the work force.
• Water availability and quality.
• A possible North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the U.S., �anada and
Mexico.
• Structural changes in industry (labor requirements), including a major shakeup in the financial
sector.
All of these forces will affect the operation of the regional economy during the next 10 to 20 years, and each
raises issues for private and public sector decision makers. For example, there is little disagreement that
defense cuts have had a negative impact on total employment in the region. The issues are the following:
Should defense spending reductions be a concern to the entire region, or only to individual workers and
firms? Even if the defense cut transition is offset by other positives in the regional economic outlook, what
of individual workers and companies? Can they make the transition to new jobs and products? Should their
transition be of concern to the rest of the region's residents? How should closed military facilities be used in
order to maximize the economic growth and competitiveness of the region?
In the environmental area there is concern that the implementation of air quality regulations by the South
Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) will lead or even force manufacturing firms to leave the
region. Despite an enormous amount of conflicting debate on this question little real evidence has emerged.
Thus the question is still unanswered: are environmental regulations a threat to the Southern California
economy?
Even if, on the whole, regional economic growth can continue while we clean the air, there will clearly be
gainers and losers. Some industries, such as furniture, may find meeting the regulations too costly or
difficult. On the other hand, new firms will almost certainly evolve to provide the technology, equipment
and services to reduce emissions.
Many changes in the region's transportation system will also be required as a result of federal and state
mandates to reduce pollution. Automobiles will be redesigned, new transportation systems will be built, and
the cost of driving alone will go up. Gasoline taxes, vehicle emission fees, elimination of employer-paid
parking, toll roads, and congestion pricing are all being seriously examined, if not already mandated, within
the state or the region.
The most dramatic transition of all is already underway in Southern California's labor force. A wave of
demographic change is sweeping the region. Nearly all of the future population and labor force growth will
be Hispanic and Asian, and most of the new residents and workers will be recent immigrants or children of
recent immigrants.
These demographic changes, coupled with the rising skills requirements of new jobs in the region, raise the
possibility of a serious jobs/skills mismatch in the years ahead. It is important to note, however, that this
Page 2-24 • December 1993 ,SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
An
Chapter Two • The Economy
potential mismatch is an issue that cuts across all ethnic groups. There is strong evidence that the labor force
preparation of students graduating from Americans high schools is deteriorating regardless of ethnic origin or
immigrant status.
As for skills requirements, research conducted by SCAG for the Ford Foundation on regional work force and
economic development issues points to the rapidly-changing nature of middle level jobs. Intermediate level
job opportunities are not shrinking, on the whole, but such positions are moving from the factory to the
office. Skills requirements are shifting from manual to interpersonal.
The state and regional water resource control boards are implementing vigorous policies to protect Southern
California's water quality. At the same time, increasing demands for water in the region are running into
limits on long-term water supply. Both water quality and supply issues raise the possibility of altering the
relative competitiveness of industries in the region. Further, the introduction of market pricing into the water
supply-demand equation—various proposals for which are under discussion in Sacramento—would
undoubtedly alter traditional ways of doing business and lead to employment shifts in many sectors of
industry.
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will extend the benefits of the Canada-U.S. Free
Trade Agreement (1988) to Mexico, creating the world's largest free-trade zone: 360 million consumers and
a total GDP of more than $6.5 trillion. Trade liberalization always produces industries that gain and
industries that lose. What will be the impacts—both positive and negative—of NAFTA or other trade
expansion initiatives on the Southern California economy?
Finally, industry in this region, as in the United States generally, has undergone profound structural change
in the past several years. Developments that have significantly affected both the business climate and the
level of employment include the following:
1. The boom in mergers and acquisitions.
2. A virtual revolution in methods of financing business (high priority on restoring "health" to
balance sheets, and a myriad of innovations in the securities markets).
3. The "lean and mean" approach to balance sheets affected not only financial management but also
personnel management: employment was "downsized" to the maximum extent possible to cut costs
and many functions formerly performed by full-time employees were "out-sourced" to save on
overhead expense.
4. Computerization and the electronics/telecommunications revolution boosted labor productivity,
further reducing the number of workers required to produce a given level of output.
5. The near-collapse of the financial sector in the wake of the savings and loan and junk-bond
debacles of the 1980s.
To some extent, these shifts were necessitated or accelerated by the severity of the region's recession. In
large part, however, they are the result of intensified national and international competition, a factor that must
be dealt with in a long-term, strategic context.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-25
Chapter Two • The Economy
The economic transitions we have been discussing all raise certain common questions.
• Will the change negatively affect the regional economy?
• Who are the individual gainers and losers?
• Are there "least cost" strategies to seek in responding to these transitions?
• Does every transition require a policy response?
Aerospace workers laid off as a result of cutbacks in defense spending share their experiences with furniture
workers displaced by the cost of air quality regulations and farm workers affected by water constraints or free
trade with Mexico. By addressing the commonality of the experience, policy-makers and the public will
recognize that many individuals and firms are being simultaneously affected by economic forces beyond their
control.
The common dimensions of transitions the region is undergoing must be charted to develop the proper
constituency for policy responses. Residents and decision makers are interested in the future of the regional
economy as a whole. Thus all transitions need to be examined simultaneously. The impacts of defense cuts
on the region's manufacturing base must be looked at in the context of other forces such as air quality
regulations and water issues—as well as positive forces such as growth in world trade and technology.
4. THE ISSUE OF ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS
Although there are, as discussed earlier, a number of areas of strength in the region's economic base, there
can be no doubt that Southern California's competitiveness has suffered in recent years. Whether the measure
is job growth or gains in real per capita income, the Southern California economy is currently trailing the
nation.
The situation in manufacturing is indicative. That the number of manufacturing jobs in the region has
declined comes as no surprise. Indeed, for the country as a whole, both employment and the share of
manufacturing in GDP have been declining for a number of years. What is disturbing is that manufacturing
employment and output in the SCAG region have been falling relative to the rest of the nation.
Figure 2-16 shows the ratio of SCAG region employment to total U.S. employment in manufacturing. Note
the pronounced downturn since 1987, as well as the fact that in neither of the two previous recessions shown
(1974-75 and 1981-82) did Southern California's share decline (i.e., as long as both the U.S', and the region
are in recession at the same time, recession per se does not explain loss of share.
Part of the post-1987 drop is the product of cutbacks in federal defense spending and the region's over
dependence on defense-related industry. For the most part, however, the fall in the ratio reflects an exodus
of manufacturing facilities from the Southland and loss of markets to other competitors in the U.S. and
abroad.
To be sure, manufacturing is not the only type of activity we need in Southern California. Neither, however,
is it the only area in which we have a competitiveness problem. Since 1987, the region's share of national
employment has fallen in all major (single-digit SIC) employment classifications but one: government.
Page 2-26 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
AVW
Chapter Two • The Economy
Even if today's business climate were Figure 2-16
satisfactory, the challenge of maintaining
regional economic competitiveness grows s`"G '�" °'P`Dr"°T AS"`OF U.S.'" "'�'�`"' eM�nwv+r•
greater each year. Firms in an increasing PERCENT
number of industries have a choice of sites e
around the world for the location of new
and expanded facilities. Firms can choose 7
not just between Southern California and
Texas but between California, Japan,
Mexico, Malaysia, and European locations. s
This is particularly true in high value added
industries. s
Under these circumstances what does it ,
Oil
mean for Southern California to be -1q,q.q k0�� .
competitive in attracting high paying jobs?
The main determinant o industry location in Source:U.S. aLary mpl of Labor and ErnWoyment Deve+opment pepartment
f �' •Wage and Salary Emplaymerrt
the long term is whether or not a region has
competitive resources. Regional policy
makers need to be concerned with four major categories of competitive resources, which are considered to be
the foundations of economic growth.
• A Competitive Work force.
• Competitive Infrastructure.
• A Competitive Quality of Life.
• Competitive Business Climate.
The following is a brief discussion of each of these resources. Each of the other RCP chapters contain
detailed strategies for improving these foundations.
a. Work force Quality
Business location studies consistently show that the quality of an area's work force is the principal
determinant of long-term location/expansion decisions. All recent studies of California's business climate also
agree that our kindergarten through 12th-grade educational system needs serious attention and reform. Budget
cuts are increasingly putting the state's higher educational system at risk.
The Human Resources and Services chapter of the RCP deals in considerable detail with strategies for
improving the quality of the region's work force.
b. Infrastructure
Infrastructure is also a key determinant of business location. Can people, goods, and information be moved
quickly and at competitive costs? In the 1990s telecommunications networks—which determine how fast and
efficiently information can be moved—will be a new area of infrastructure competition. Infrastructure also
includes providing adequate supplies of water and energy and handling the waste products of industry and
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-27
Chapter Two • The Economy
people. The latter are dealt with in the Water Resources, Water Quality, and Waste Management chapters of
this plan.
Numerous studies in the 1980s documented California's infrastructure backlog. A recent report by the
California Council for Environmental and Economic Balance (CCEEB) sums up the current situation:
"In California, deferred maintenance and low investment in our infrastructure has caused us to
lose our economic edge, has led to increased social tensions, and threatens the beauty and
viability of our natural environment. No conscientious homeowner would let a house
deteriorate to the current shape of our California home.
Our state's infrastructure has been the solid foundation of California's economic miracle. The
decline of that infrastructure is the most serious crisis we face, and is an important factor
underlying the economic malaise California faces in the 1990s and beyond."'
As the CCEEB report states, public investment in the 1950s and 1960s averaged 20 percent of state spending.
By the 1980s, public investment had declined to less than 5 percent of the state's spending.
c. Quality of life
The second strategic goal of the RCP is to improve the quality of life in the SCAG region 10 Quality of life
is a business location determinant as well as a social goal. In fact, education and infrastructure also address
social goals while affecting Southern California's competitiveness as a business location. Quality of life
includes environmental amenities, adequate resources to combat crime, cultural resources, affordable housing,
and efficient transportation systems.
Quality-of-life variables are particularly important in attracting and retaining high value added basic industry.
Since such companies are welcome virtually anywhere in the world, only areas that compete well on quality
of life, as well as business costs and infrastructure, will prove successful.
Factors affecting, and objectives for improving, the quality of life in the SCAG region are discussed in detail
in the Strategy chapter (Chapter 1) of the RCP.
d. Business Climate
Deterioration in Southern California's business climate was a major contributor to the regionj's relative
economic decline in the past few years. Adverse factors in the business outlook included perceived anti-
business policies at the state and local levels and the severity of the area's recession, which has been both
deeper and more prolonged than elsewhere in the state and the country as a whole.
Rules and regulations have been a principal focus in many recent analyses of California's business climate.
Major complaints from the business community are about the following:
'Our Endangered California Home,California Council for Environmental&Economic Balance, 1992.
10 Subregion input:Los Angeles City,West Riverside Council of Governments.
Page 2-28 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
• A workers' compensation system with high premiums and relatively low
benefits.
0 Complicated and lengthy permit processes for most economic development
projects (land use, construction, operating permits).
• Complex and costly procedures required to meet environmental regulations.
Rules and regulations are a factor in business location along with work force, infrastructure, and quality of
life considerations. Southern California cannot ignore the implications of permit processes on location
decisions any more than the state can ignore the implications of educational funding decisions on this region's
economic competitiveness.
A fundamental objective of the RCP is to develop effective methods for coordinating and simplifying
regulatory processes so that the purpose of the regulation is achieved, but at a
lower administrative and implementation cost. Each RCP chapter will examine the cost of meeting the
appropriate public policy objectives and suggest ways to reduce these costs.
On the positive side, the challenge of restoring competitiveness carries within it the seeds of a solution. The
combination of recession and structural change which has so dimmed the outlook in Southern California may
eventually turn out to have been the best thing to happen to this region since motion pictures. The reason:
economic adversity such as that we are presently experiencing forces people to think in ways they never
would have, to move in directions they would never have dreamed of taking. Necessity is the mother of
invention. Professor Michael Porter of Harvard, author of the influential book The Competitive Advantage of
Nations, puts it this way:
The fundamental lesson is that the quiet life is an enemy of competitive advantage. Industries
thrive when they are forced to overcome high labor costs or a lack of natural resources, when
their customers won't accept inferior or outmoded products, when their local competitors are
many and murderous, and when government offers no protection from fair competition and
sets tough technical and regulatory standards."
Clearly, many of these conditions exist in Southern California today. Porter's findings, which are now
mainstream thinking, are the basis for optimism that the present situation can be corrected. Long term
planning can assist in this process by maintaining a regional, "big picture" perspective and by stirring things
up; i.e., by delineating strategies for the public and private sectors to follow and, if necessary, by prodding
f-
the appropriate players into action.
"Fortune,March 12, 1990,p. 95.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-29
„
Chapter Two • The Economy
D. SCAG'S LONG-TERM FORECAST
The SCAG regional forecast foresees job growth of more than 2.6 million and population gains of almost 6
million between 1990 and 2010. Total jobs in SCAG's six counties are projected to increase from 7.1 million
in 1990 to 9.7 million in 2010—a gain of over 37 percent (see Table 2-3). In view of recent declines in
employment—especially in construction and defense-related—this is a substantial increase. Yet it is well
below the region's historical performance: in the 18 years from 1972 through 1990 employment in the SCAG
region jumped by more than 66 percent.
Table 2-3
SCAG Region Population and Jobs
(Thousands)
Current Forecast 1989 GMP
Forecast
1990 2010 Percent 2010
Change
Population 14,641 20,507 40.1% 18,256
Employment 7,060 9,679 37.196 8,954
Projected employment growth will support a population of approximately 20.5 million residents in 2010. The
region's population will grow by 5.9 million or 40.1 percent. The current forecast is almost 2.3 million
higher in 2010 than the population forecast in the 1989 Growth Management Plan (GMP). Details on the
region's population growth and characteristics can be found in the Growth Management chapter of the RCP.
Why will there be so many jobs and people in the region, one might ask. Southern California's growth is
dependent on two main factors:
1. The number of additional people and jobs in the nation.
2. The share (percentage) of those jobs and people that chooses to locate in the SCAG region.
Rising birth rates and growing immigration levels have led the Census Bureau to dramatically raise their U.S.
population projections. Approximately 50 million new residents are now expected by 2010 compared with
the previous projection of 33 million.
Fifty million new residents in the United States will require the creation of almost 35 million more jobs
between 1990 and 2010. When the 1989 GMP was prepared the outlook was for only 27 million new jobs by
2010. Thus, one major reason the new SCAG forecast is higher is that the pool of new jobs and population
that the region is competing for is much larger than previously expected.
SCAG forecasts the region's share of the nation's added jobs and population by 1) analyzing the region's
expected share of new jobs separately for each of 49 basic industries; 2) deriving from these a set of forecasts
of 21 local ”("non-basic") industries based on analysis of trends in the ratio of non-basic to basic jobs; and 3)
incorporating region specific birth rate and labor force assumptions by ethnic group to reflect the region's
changing demographic characteristics.
Page 2-30 • December 1993 SCAG * Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
Job growth in the region's economic base is shown in Table 2-4. Southern California is expected to gain
further from strong growth in the professional services and tourism and entertainment sectors—each with
projected job growth of near 70 percent. Continued brisk expansion of foreign trade will support these
sectors as well as the region's transportation and wholesale trade firms.
Table 2-4
SCAG Region Economic Base Forecast
(Thousands of Jobs)
Percent
Growth
1992 2010 1992-2010
Professional Services 798.8 1342.0 68.0%
Diversified Manufacturing 721.8 876.0 21.4%
Transp. & Whlsale Trade 526.5 769.7 46.2%
Tourism & Entertainment 248.3 414.6 67.0%
Defense Related 236.2 250.3 6.0%
High Tech Manufacturing 111.9 128.0 14.4%
Resource Based 116.8 126.7 8.5%
Total Base Jobs 2,760.3 3,907.4 41.6%
Manufacturing is projected to show a modest rebound from today's depressed job levels, with diversified
manufacturing, now its largest component, posting a 21 percent increase in employment. The defense related
sector will also grow eventually as a result of gains in jobs producing for the commercial aircraft market.
Table 2-5 on the next page shows SCAG's employment forecast organized by major industry group (single-
digit SIC codes), a classification that facilitates comparisons with the 1989 GMP forecast. With three
exceptions, the new 2010 totals are all higher than in the 1989 GMP. The interesting part of the comparison
is that 2010 employment is projected to be lower than in our previous forecast in agriculture, mining, and
manufacturing. Mining and farm jobs are projected to decline in the region both vis-a-vis 1990 and relative
to the old forecast. More capital intensive methods of production and housing demand pressures on land use
and land values are the major factors behind employment losses in these two sectors.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-31
a
Chapter Two • The Economy
Table 2-5
_ _ .
:.......:.::::..:. EMIE#I. 311 1'l'lE~ ?€ REC " MPi RI .. ::: ` >:...........:::
:: ;> :::.>:» :::.:.;;:::::;::;;>::> a s, 1}89 ..
::> : ;><..>.. : : ::::»:: :<.:::::: burr Ai
nttsrrrtdr at1s t►pt at1Ft'CI�
1990-2010
2010 Forecast Growth
Current
1990 Actual 1989 Forecast
GMT Current (Percent)
Agriculture 59 66 51 -13.0
Mining 14 21 12 -15.4
Construction 299 300 370 23.8
Manufacturing 1,230 1,514 1,239 0.8
Transportation and Public Utilities 305 408 422 38.5
Trade (Wholesale and Retail) 1,502 1,928 2,125 41.5
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 432 550 595 37.7
Services 1,775 2,612 3,011 69.6
Government 860 880 1,075 25.0
Self-Employed 537 610 709 31.9
Sub-total 7,012 8,890 9,609 37.0
Imperial County (all jobs) 48 N.A. 70 45.8
SCA�G Region Total "l, 1�1 A 9,5 '
N.A. = Not Available
Table 2-5 shows the big picture on manufacturing. Combining all its parts, manufacturing employment
overall shows virtual stagnation over the forecast period. In stark contrast, the 1989 GMP projected a total
of 1.5 million factory jobs in 2010, almost 275,000 more than the current forecast and an increase of 23
percent from the actual manufacturing employment level in 1990. The difference results frond the combination
of two forces: slower growth in U.S. manufacturing jobs and the permanent loss of employment from this
region due to defense spending cuts, business restructuring, and business relocations.
The distribution of jobs among the major categories in 2010 is also considerably different now than in
previous forecasts. By 2010, the share of manufacturing in total employment in the region falls from 17.4
percent (in 1990) to slightly less than 13 percent. The share of services in the regional total meanwhile rises
from slightly more than 25 percent to more than 31 percent.
Page 2-32 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
d=
r
Y Chapter Two • The Economy
Combining SCAG's forecasts of population, labor force and jobs indicates that if nothing else changes, the
region's labor force during the 20-year Plan period would exceed the number of jobs here by about 8-1/2
+ percent on average; by the year 2010 this gap would still be on the order of 6-7 percent. In other words, the
region's hypothetical unemployment rate in 2010 would still be about one percentage point higher than the
national average forecast by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—quite apart from any additional negative
impacts if the region happened to be in recession at that point.
To put that into perspective, the SCAG region's jobless rate has typically run well below the corresponding
U.S. average in non-recessionary periods (see Figure 2-17). The "something" that must change to bring this
relationship back to normal is the adoption of a regional economic strategy to revive and expand basic
industry. We turn to this subject in the next section of this chapter.
Fgure 2-17
DIFFERENCE* BETWEEN SLAG AND U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE**
PERCENT
3.0
2.0 —————————————————————————
1.0 — ---------------------
ao
i
b p
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
SoR.w:Bweau d Labor SLabom and Etttptoymwt Davaboman Depanner:t
.-
SCAG u PkFfmWd rats mesa U.S.unwnyf0/mant nds
••Not seesomly adPWed
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-33
Chapter Two • The Economy
E. STRATEGIES FOR ECONOMIC PROSPERITY
AND EQUITY
The decline in basic industry's share of total regional employment and output must be reversed. Basic
industry has large multiplier effects on the economy and jobs, as well as higher wages and benefits than most
other types of economic activity. More specifically, the region must increase its share of employment in
those industries and service sectors where wages and salaries will be higher than average and where growth
nationwide and internationally is expected to be strong.
As noted earlier, however, many of the nation's industrial states and regions will no doubt be setting the same
sorts of goals. Southern California must therefore focus its efforts on those industries in which it also has
comparative advantage. The four "T"s—trade, transportation, technology, and tourism/entertainment—for
example, meet most of the criteria specified above. Manufacturing sectors such as pollution,control
equipment and biomedical devices also appear promising. More will be said about such industries later.
1 . INTRODUCTION: THE NEED FOR A REGIONAL FOCUS
How can the region exploit its comparative advantages? An improving business climate is necessary but not
sufficient. An entirely new approach is called for; new forms of industrial organization, a new breed of
entrepreneur, and substitution of market solutions for government controls wherever possible. Market and
employment share can only be increased by raising the level of investment in the region. An adequate level
and proper mix of public and private investment are the keys to strengthening competitiveness, boosting
employment and securing long term gains in personal income and living standards.
Current regional economic thinking identifies two fundamental factors that influence which regions will attract
investment and achieve strong gains in real income: the organization of key industrial clusters and the
economic foundations that support them. These concepts—industrial clusters and economic foundations —
form the basis for the strategies laid out below to enhance the economic competitiveness of the SCAG region
economy.
a. What are Clusters and Why are they Important?
Joint Venture: Silicon Valley, a two-year old effort to develop a regional economic strategy for basic industry
in Northern California's Silicon Valley, answers these questions in the following manner.
In the most advanced economies worldwide, one or more industry clusters serve as the driving
force of the regional economy. At the core of the cluster are geographic concentrations of
interdependent; internationally competitive firms in related industries. These firms can
include companies that make or help make a final product, as well as specialized suppliers and
service providers. Clusters include large companies and small companies, domestic and
foreign firms.
Supporting the cluster firms are specialized economic foundations in areas such as work force,
technology, new business support, and communications/information infrastructure.
Foundations are provided both by the public sector (e.g., universities, airports) and by
companies (e.g., venture capital firms, marketing firms).
Page 2-34 • December 1993 ,SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
r�
Chapter Two • The Economy
A salient feature of clusters is that they are self-regenerating, their elements mutually
synergistic and energizing. Intense competition and close cooperation spur innovation across
industries. The specialized, fluid work force and the geographic proximity make information
accessible and reduce transactions costs within the region. As they develop, cluster firms
create demand for new types of products and services, some of which can be supplied by
existing or new local firms. Customers or partners of local companies can be attracted to the
cluster and the region. In short, the cluster dynamic gives companies and their regions a
competitive leg-up against others.
Without healthy clusters, the rest of a region's economy — retail, services, and government
— cannot prosper. In addition to selling their products and services locally, cluster firms sell
globally and bring outside dollars into the region. These dollars pump up the regional
economy as firms buy products from other sectors in the area. Their employees also spend
their paychecks at local stores and restaurants, and buy local homes. This "multiplier effect"
of high—tech industries is exceptionally strong."
b. Why is a Regional Strategy Focus Needed?
Successful industrial clusters are almost always found in well-defined regions. Whatever the precise reasons,
the evidence clearly suggests that they work best with the "glue" of a region to bind them. In Southern
California, major producers and many key suppliers are spread throughout the region in aircraft, apparel,
motion pictures, and tourism. We think of these sectors as areas of strength in Southern California's regional
economy. In Northern California the electronics and computer clusters define the economic base of Silicon
Valley.
Regions with expanding economies, whether in Austin, Texas, in Italy, or in Japan, have discovered the value
of an active collaboration between the private and public sectors. An active dialogue between private industry
-- and the public sector is helpful no matter what the challenge is; whether developing infrastructure (ports,
airports, highways) to support the growth of foreign trade or strategies to ensure that the K-12 education
system is a competitive economic foundation for regional growth and prosperity. The fact is, those regional
economies that are succeeding in today's global marketplace are regions where people are talking and acting
together.
c. What are the Basic Responsibilities of the Private Sector?
The private sector needs to develop a collaborative approach to production, including shared technology and
basic research. Activity is already underway in Southern California to implement such an approach. But
much more needs to be done in the area of organizing industrial clusters. Private industry and labor will also
have to cooperate with and supplement the public sector in educating and training labor for technical
specialties. Relationships will have to be forged in basic research; i.e., among individual firms and between
them and California's excellent universities." [Expand—include flexible manufacturing]
tZ Blueprint for a 21st Century Community, Joint Venture: Silicon Valley, June 1993, pp. 25-26.
"Subregion input:North Los Angeles County.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-35
Chapter Two • The Economy
2. REGIONAL ECONOMIC STRATEGIES CONSORTIUM (RESC)
[The ideas discussed in this section are intended as an outline, a potential agenda to be filled in detail by the
public/private sector participants in these joint ventures.]
To provide the "glue" necessary to bind the other foundations together, leadership will clearly be required.
The 2000 Regional Partnership, SCAG and the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce should form a
Regional Economic Strategies Consortium (RESC) comprising representatives of existing regional and
subregional development bodies such as Partnership 2010 and the Inland Empire Economic Partnership,
labor, industry and trade associations, etc.1' Its precise mission, organizational structure, financing, etc.
will be defined by the Consortium leaders and partners. In general terms, the Consortium would:
1. Promote (market) the entire region—both domestically and internationally.
A portion of existing promotion funds at all identifiable levels—cities, counties, the Los Angeles
Convention and Visitors Bureau, major attractions, port authorities, etc.—should be pooled for the
purposes of marketing the region. The idea is to get businesses and tourists to the region, then let the
various interests compete for the specific location within it. Voters in the six-county region might
even be asked to consider a fractional add-on to sales tax for this purpose. Promotion/marketing
would be a specialized economic foundation for the region, supporting of its clusters.
One example of a novel (and apparently successful) approach to promotion is contained in the
"Massachusetts Initiative," a 1991 plan for economic recovery that enlisted government, business, and
academia in a joint effort." The privately sponsored "Massachusetts Ambassador" program consists
of a diverse group of 150 "ambassadors". Most are CEOs who agree to personally make three calls
or host three receptions for targeted business executives over a two-year period. The ambassadors go
to these meetings armed with up-to-date information on the target company and on the principal
advantages Massachusetts can offer.
2. Support the development of regional industry clusters. RESC task forces would be organized
around specific clusters. A key task would be to determine what foundations will be required for
each and how their common features (e.g., training) can be combined.
3. Ensure that proposed changes in public policy do not significantly impair the ability of firms in this
region to compete and that So Cal gets its fair share of federal and state assistance in areas that affect
the area's competitiveness. Some suggested topics for attention are discussed in subsection B, below.
4. Help secure financial assistance to industry, particularly small and medium-size firms. Creating
access to relatively low-cost sources of capital would be another critical foundation area.
"RESC concept and organization structure supported by: Arroyo Verdugo Subregion,Los Angeles City, North Los Angeles County,San Gabriel
Association of Cities,Southeast Los Angeles County,South Bay Cities,West Riverside Council of Governments.
is Robert Sullivan, "Massachusetts Takes the Initiative,"in Hemispheres, January 1993, pp. 25-26.
Page 2-36 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
�sn,1
Chapter Two • The Economy
The economic strategy developed by SCAG in conjunction with area business, community groups, and the
SCAG subregions comprises three major components: first, expanding and diversifying our economic base;
second, lowering business costs and increasing competitiveness; and third, a long-term investment in Southern
California's communities-in-need.
3. STRATEGIES TO EXPAND AND DIVERSIFY
THE REGION'S ECONOMIC BASE
A state-of-the-art strategy to energize basic industry16 will require collaboration and cooperation through
industrial clusters in order to improve competitiveness and stimulate real fixed investment. The first step is to
increase the awareness of both the private and the public sector in the region as to what efforts are already under
way toward forming clusters.
IDENTIFYING INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS:
SECTORS WITH STRONG GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT POTENTIAL
As in other economically-developed regions across the country, there are a number of potential clusters in the
SCAG region, each with its own unique contribution to make to Southern California's economic base. The list
below—which is not meant to be exhaustive—includes the sponsoring organizations identified by SCAG that have
agreed to prepare the discussions of these clusters for the final version of the RCP. The list is followed by a brief
discussion of each of the clusters for which write-ups are presently available.
• The apparel industry (including textiles and fashion design): Southern California Edison Co.
• Entertainment: Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers
• Tourism (including lodging, transportation, and food): Wedin Enterprises Inc.
• Environmental technology: City of Pasadena
• Aerospace and defense: The Economic Development Corporation (EDQ of Los Angeles County
• Foreign trade services: The Greater Los Angeles World Trade Center Association
• Advanced transportation systems and technology: Project California; and "Project Southern
California" Regional Economic Strategies Consortium (RESQ
• Biomedical equipment industry: Partnership 2010
The Apparel Industry
Southern California Edison's apparel industry initiative is an example of the type of effort under way to meet
the competitive challenges facing key industries in the region. Based on an analysis of regional economic
dynamics, Edison identified the apparel industry, with over 100,000 workers and a complex of additional
interlinking supplier and support industries, as one of several key industry clusters that not only manifested a
significant locational strength, but had the potential to serve as a growing economic force for the regional
economy.
16 Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo,San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,North Los Angeles County,Southeast Los Angeles County,South Bay
Cities Association,West Riverside Council of Governments.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-37
Chapter Two • The Economy
The industry's importance as a job provider is magnified by the fact that it employs a large and diverse
concentration of immigrants and native minorities. Thus it continues to serve its traditional role as a
transition industry for workers who aspire to a better life for themselves and their children. Moreover,
apparel is one of the few industries in which many successful entrepreneurs and managers are without college
degrees. The Southern California apparel industry cluster promises additional growth and business
opportunities because the region is the nexus of design, marketing, and export-related elements as well.
Despite the significance and potential of the industry in this region, there are indications that it is facing
increasingly difficult competitive challenges. Some of these arise from global changes such as the initiation
of NAFTA, some from the structure of the industry locally—such as the lack of a unified industry voice and
continued reliance on old technologies and production systems—and some from the apparent failure of local
jurisdictions to pay sufficient attention to the needs of the apparel industry.
In March of 1993, Southern California Edison began hosting a series of Apparel Industry Roundtable
meetings in the garment district with leaders from the industry representing manufacturers, contractors, trade
organizations, financial agents, training agencies, and unions. These initial meetings have been devoted to
identifying the major concerns and needs of the various components that make up this complex industry. At
one meeting, for example, the director of the highly successful Garment Industry Development Corporation
(GIDC) of New York was flown in to describe the union-originated GIDC project, which has gained
widespread participation and involvement by industry and government in its efforts to support and expand the
New York City women's apparel industry.
The roundtable is now investigating the feasibility of borrowing and adapting such GIDC programs as
industry-developed training, technology assistance, specialized marketing efforts and export assistance.
Fundamental organizational matters—such as the need to unify Southern California's fragmented local
industry, address business climate concerns, and gain local and statewide recognition of the apparel industry
cluster as a crucial element in any equation for supporting and expanding the regional economy—also need to
be addressed.
Entertainment
The entertainment industry is, in many important respects, already a functioning industrial cluster. The
Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) is currently undertaking the groundwork
necessary to ensure that it remains where it is and to maximize its effectiveness. The AMPTP's own
description of the project follows.
The image of the entertainment industry is inextricably linked to Southern California, but there is concern that
its economic benefits to the region may not be. Because it combines relatively minimal demands on
infrastructure and the environment with large and diverse expenditures and high-wage employment, the
industry is aggressively courted by the leadership of many states and countries. While some aspects of the
business require convenient accessibility to others in the industry, a significant portion of the
"manufacturing" aspect is highly portable.
In the early 1980's California had a near-monopoly on all aspects of the business, although some location
production was leaving the state. In the intervening years, studio facilities have developed in New York, New
Jersey, North Carolina, Texas, Hawaii, Chicago, Florida, Vancouver and Toronto. Competition for the
industry has expanded from location production to back-lot filming and post-production services.
Page 2-38 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
As a truly "global" industry, the entertainment industry exports its products to the world and imports dollars
to the Southern California region. According to the AMPTP, the entertainment industry is the second-largest
contributor to the U.S. balance of trade—second only to aerospace.
The entertainment industry is poised on the brink of a major technological transition that is closely linked to
the computer and telecommunications industries in California. The industry produces software to travel the
coming "electronic superhighway," and is a major market for the rapidly developing computer technologies
that can change and improve the product. The synergy of these complementary industries is a critical
component of California's future.
Despite its economic importance and its long history here, data on the industry's real employment and income
impacts on the region are lacking. What studies have been performed have had to rely on secondary data and
have focused only on location production, missing large portions of the industry. To remedy this, the Alliance
of Motion Picture and Television Producers has retained Monitor Company to conduct an in-depth study,
which should be completed in early 1994. The report will have several components:
1. A "map" or discussion of the industry segments, their unique characteristics, and how they
interact.
2. Data on employment and spending in the Southern California region.
3. Information on how successful California's competitors have been at attracting the industry to
their locales.
4. Recommendations on how to retain and nurture the industry in Southern California.
Point four in the list above will serve as a basis for action on industrial collaboration and flexibility; i.e., on
improving the efficiency and scope of the entertainment cluster.
Environmental Technology
According to figures cited in the California Environmental Technology Partnership (CETP) draft strategic
plan report (July 16, 1993), the U.S. market for environmental goods and services is $120 billion in annual
revenues. California's environmental industry accounts for 17 percent of the U.S. and 7.5 percent of the
world market—a $20-25 billion market here already. Global growth prospects are strong, but California's
high environmental standards make this perhaps the best market of all for sales and employment growth.
Currently, both Arroyo Verdugo subregion and South Bay Cities subregion identify themselves as potential
areas for future development and concentration of environmental industry in the SCAG region." The
comparative advantages of these two subregions include high-skilled and well-educated labor force, strong
engineering research firms, adequate production capacity and available industrial development sites.
However, certain barriers impede the movement of new environmental technologies to market. In partnership
with business, academia, community, other non-profit organizations, government agencies can work to lower
these barriers and foster an environmental industry cluster in Southern California. California Environmental
"Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo Subregion and South Bay Cities.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-39
Chapter Two • The Economy
Business Opportunities (CEBO)" and the city of Pasadena, which is facilitating an environmental technology
cluster linking the city's engineering firms with the research facilities of the California Institute of Technology
(Caltech) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), recently made the following recommendations:
• Establish a consolidated public/private analytical laboratory in the region capable of
implementing all testing protocols for both the E.P.A. and CAL-EPA. Such a site would
facilitate industry development of a "real-conditions" model for field demonstrations and
testing of new equipment and systems.
• Set up resources centers where businesses can go for help in understanding regulations,
meeting permit requirements set up by multiple jurisdictions, and obtaining available technical
and financial assistance from both the public and the private sector.
• Encourage close cooperation between public education and training bodies and private
corporations to train and educate workers to satisfy the special needs of this emerging
industry.
• Coordinate efforts between public agencies and industry to establish standards and to certify
and license the new technology.
• Encourage regulators to be more flexible in allowing industry to develop alternative solutions
to environmental problems. In other words, set targets in terms of "how much (little)" and
"by when" but not "how". An environmental technology cluster should be able to provide
alternative methods that can then be evaluated on the basis of cost, export potential and other
economic criteria.
• Develop purchasing policies for local governments stressing gradual increases in the
percentages of recycled materials used by cities and counties. Such policies would help to
create a market base for the environmental technology industry.
• Resolve disputes over environmental issues through mediation instead of law suits. This would
lower the costs of environmental protection as well as providing relief to an overburdened
court system.19
Advanced Transportation Systems and Technology: Project California .
Launched in the summer of 1992 under the mentorship of the California Council on Science and Technology,
Project California is a joint venture that now numbers some fifty investors, including many of California's
"California Environmental Business Opportunities, "1992-1993 Highlights in Brief.°
"Also see the Strategy Chapter, 'Decision Making, Consensus Building,and Dispute Resolution.'
Page 2-40 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
biggest companies and agencies.' Its mission is to create high value-added, long-term job opportunities in
the advanced transportation industry for residents of the state of California.
The initial stage of Project California, which occupied about one year, was to identify and prioritize those
advanced transportation technologies that offer maximum potential for California job creation. Secondary
criteria were environmental impact and potential contribution to improving the state's transportation
infrastructure.
Phase one identified six major technology groupings containing over 700 individual technologies in 24 distinct
businesses. A detailed market assessment was then conducted for each of the 24 businesses, including
detailed descriptions of current market conditions and forecasts of demand prospects over the next 20 years.
Simultaneously, the Project team and their consultants evaluated the likelihood that California could serve as
home base for a world-class, competitive cluster of firms using the competitive advantage model developed by
Professor Michael Porter of Harvard discussed earlier in this chapter.
The transportation technologies that survived this rigorous process are the following:
• Electric vehicles (CALSTART)".
• Intelligent vehicle highway systems (IVHS).
• "Information Transportation" (advanced telecommunications).
• Command, control, and communications systems for public transit.
• Research and development in the areas of Maglev (magnetic levitation) trains and fuel cells.
CALSTART is the most advanced of these initiatives. It is a non-profit consortium of more than 40 public
and private entities developing a California-based hi-tech low-pollution form of transportation. In Southern
California, CALSTART is the cornerstone of the defense conversion process. The consortium, which
includes aerospace companies and electric utilities along with environmental groups, labor unions and
research institutions, will apply defense/aerospace engineering and production expertise to a number of
products and services revolving around electric vehicles. A prototype electric passenger car has already been
built ("Showcase Electric Vehicle Project") and projects involving an electric bus/mass transit program and an
electric vehicle infrastructure system are on the drawing boards. [discuss CALSTART's emphasis on electric
vehicle components]
Project California is now in the process of developing specific action agendas in each of these areas,
accompanied by a human resources action agenda featuring an Advanced Transportation Training Program.
Project California estimates that these activities could generate 200,000 direct manufacturing jobs in
r
California by the year 2000.
Project California will spawn a number of industrial clusters. Southern California is in many ways uniquely
positioned to house those clusters. A strategy for doing so, which we will call "Project Southern California"
is outlined below.
"Among them are: Hughes Aircraft Co.,Bechtel Civil Inc., Aerojet General,Allied Signal Aerospace,the Automobile Club of Southern California,
So. Calif Edison Co.,So.Calif Gas Co., PG&E, Pacific Bell, Loa Angeles County Transportation Commission,Ford Motor Corp, BankAmerica Corp.
and the California Employment Training Panel.
Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo,South bay Cities Association.
_"Subregion input: Arroyo Verdugo Subregion,South Bay Cities Association.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-41
Chapter Two • The Economy
Project Southern California: Linking Employment Needs
with Transportation Requirements in the SCAG Region
A Project Southern California will be designed to carry forward the initiatives of Project California on
Advanced Transportation Systems (ATS). The campaign will be to maximize the "capture" Of Project
California industry clusters for the SCAG region. This makes sense from a number of different standpoints.
First, Southern California firms are preeminent in the production of many of the goods and services an ATS
sector will require: transportation equipment, guidance systems, metals and plastics, command and control
systems, and sophisticated electronics developed for defense. The design and engineering skills to support
these products and technologies are also here, as are the production and delivery infrastructure and basic
research capabilities.
Second, we have one of the largest (if not the largest) and most diversified markets for transportation
products and services in the world. If ever there were a region and a set of industrial clusters that went hand
in hand, Southern California and advanced transportation systems are it.
Third, the region faces mandates from the both the federal and the state level not only to clean up our mobile
source emissions, but to do it within a defined time frame using specified types of advanced transportation
equipment; e.g., electric and clean-fuel vehicles.
Among the tasks that will need to be tackled by the RESC using the methodology defined by Project
California are:
• To expand and elaborate CALSTART—From a "2 percent of fleet" environmental
requirement to a world-class industry with components production and assembly operations
here in So. Cal.
• To devise a strategy to secure the lion's share of basic research under Project California. A
research center on advanced transportation systems and technology should be located in the
region. This venture would be part of the economic foundations agenda, to be undertaken by
the RESC in conjunction with, for example, Caltech, JPL, Cal Poly Pomona, UCLA, USC,
Caltrans(?), transportation industry institutes, and leading industrial engineering and design
firms.
• To coordinate employment training with Project California, the State Employment Training
Panel, and local employers in the ATS industry for conversion of the labor force base.
• To secure for Southern California the telecommunications "Free Zone" (i.e., regulation-free)
proposed by Project Calif. Collaborate on this with entertainment cluster.
• To develop a market for ATS products and services, with demand based in part on changes in
the region's transportation system recommended in the RCP Regional Mobility chapter
(Chapter 4). These recommendations, which are discussed in detail in Chapter 4 under the
heading "INNOVATIVE PROJECT SERIES" are outlined below.
Page 2-42 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
The project involves addition of a third tier, dubbed SST (for"Smart Shuttle Transit") to the region's existing
two-tier transit system, which consists of intra-regional rail (Metrolink) and inter-urban bus service. The new
tier would be made up of intra-urban shared taxis,jitneys, shuttle vans, etc. that would be privately owned
and demand-driven, designed to provide fast, frequent service to connect with the other two tiers as well as to
provide short haul, door-to-door service.
The potential mobility benefits of a community-based SST network include significant additional mode shifts
for both home-to-work and non-home-to-work travel and technological spillover benefits resulting from an
effective enhancement of existing freeway and arterial capacity. For the regional economy, implementing
such a system would provide a large and ready market for the products and services of Project Southern
California. It would also be likely to result in a huge saving to the taxpayer by reducing the overall transit
system's dependence on subsidized fares.
Economies of scale made possible by production for the local market would be an important comparative
advantage for the region's businesses in competing for markets outside Southern California. Employment
generation and entrepreneurial opportunities would be substantial, both in the production and in the
subsequent operation of the system—as individual vehicle or fleet owners, drivers, licensed operators of
support activities (e.g., inspection and maintenance), parts suppliers, etc.
Very preliminary and conservative calculations made by the modelers of the SST suggest that fleet size could
reach 150,000 vehicles over the next 10-15 years and provide 150,000-200,000 new jobs. Part of the work
of SCAG's Advanced Transportation Task force and its consultants will be to refine these estimates over
time.
Biomedical equipment industry.
The health care' and biomedical equipment industries are other likely candidates for clustering. Both are
r areas in which Southern California is, in many respects, already on the leading edge. And both are markets
"- poised to benefit substantially from the Clinton Administration's health care reform plans. Orange County's
Partnership 2010 has undertaken to assist in the formation of an industry cluster for biomedical equipment
production and technology research, as described below.
In Orange County, well-defined and established health care and medical device industry clusters are in the
process of linking up with a group of biomedical firms. United, they form a powerful biomedical industry
cluster in the region which is positioned for accelerated growth, high wage employment, and global market
potential.
According to Partnership 2010, Orange County is the top-ranking county in the United States for the
manufacture of surgical and medical instruments and number two in pharmaceutical preparations. The county
is home to a growing biotechnology cluster leveraging technology and research assets available from the
University of California, Irvine (UCI) as well as proximity to the established biotechnology cluster in
northern San Diego County.
a Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo Subregion,North Los Angeles County.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-43
Chapter Two • The Economy
Additionally, many core technologies available in the defense sector of the region have immediate commercial
applications in the biomedical industry sector. These include, for example, lasers and photonics, sensors,
robotics, microcomponents, and power supplies.
4. STRATEGIES TO PROMOTE REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS
To accomplish the above, cooperation between the public sector and the private sector will be needed. What
initiatives are and can be undertaken to lower the costs of doing business in the SCAG region, secure
resources from higher levels of government, and improve the business climate?
• Local buy-in to a regional economic strategy.
It is the responsibility of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), in cooperation
with regional businesses, to achieve buy-in at the member city level to the need for expanding the region's
economic base. City management and, most importantly, local elected officials must become active partners
in the regional economic strategy for at least two reason:;:
1. They have the land-use authority and the power to dispense development incentives.
2. Only through city-level understanding and cooperation will the region be able to prevent narrow
fiscal/jurisdictional interests from obstructing a regional approach to the economy. Industrial clusters
and economic foundations are inherently multi jurisdictional: this message must reach below the
county and even sub-regional levels.'
• Actions at the state level: [progress on California Council on Competitiveness/ADEPT agenda]
• Workers' compensation reform (est. minimum $750 million annual saving) '
• Business tax cut package worth $400-500 million.'
• CEQA reform.
• Strategic plan and red tape task forces.
• "red teams".27
• Allowing pension funds, including Cal-PERS, to invest in infrastructure projects
• The California Economic Development Strategic Planning Act, which creates a 15-member
Economic Strategy Panel and requires the Secretary of Trade and Commerce to review economic
development strategies for the state
'Letter from Tom Flavin,President, Business-Government Partnership Consulting Services, Inc.to Mark Pisano,Executive Director,SCAG dated
May 18, 1993.
'Subregion input:San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,West Riverside Council of Governments.
"Subregion input:Los Angeles City, San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities.
S6 Los Angeles City.
"Subregion input:San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities.
Page 2-44 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
• Housing reform
The Housing chapter of the RCP (Chapter 6) deals with policy issues surrounding reestablishment of
a competitive housing market, including elimination of government-made distortions.
* Exploring market-based approaches to transportation and environmental improvement
Market-based methods (as opposed to direct regulation, or command and control) should be
implemented wherever feasible to achieve environmental and mobility goals at the lowest possible cost.
Examples include the following:
1. Encouraging the South Coast Air Quality Management District to use market-based approaches for
achieving air quality goals. The RECLAIM program involving stationary sources of NOx and SOx is
the first large-scale test of the substitutability of a market for direct controls.
2. Persuading state and federal officials to remove barriers to market-based water transfers; and
3. Exploring the use of congestion pricing, parking charges, and transit deregulation in the region to
minimize the need for transportation investments. SCAG is pursuing these applications via the
transportation control measures (TCMs) discussed in the Growth Management and Regional Mobility
chapters of the RCP.
• Streamlining regulations and cutting red tape'
The business community recognizes that permit processes usually address legitimate social and
environmental goals. Nevertheless, along with market-based approaches, regulatory and permit simplification
is needed to reduce the cost of meeting legitimate goals.
Regulatory simplification includes reducing the number of agencies that have jurisdiction over the same
action. The ideal, often expressed by frustrated entrepreneurs, is one-stop permitting. Even if the one-stop
approach proves impracticable in certain instances, the second-best solution--uniformity of requirements
among different jurisdictions—should be aggressively pursued at all levels of government. This will require
collaborative decision making across geographical and jurisdictional lines.
Directly-affected industry groups and the RESC will produce specific recommendations for avoiding
duplication and overlapping of permit authority. Existing regulatory agencies affecting the region will be
convened to move toward more cost-effective means of permitting.
Even where there are few layers of bureaucracy involved in the process, streamlining of permitting translates
as minimization of the time required to obtain the required permission. The above-mentioned groups should
therefore include time minimization techniques in their recommendations to the regulators.
Some examples of local/regional initiatives [expand]:
"Subregion input:Los Angeles City,San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,Southeast Los Angeles County,Westside Cities,West Riverside Council
of Governments.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-45
Chapter Two • The Economy
• Local government efforts; e.g., Ventura County Council on Economic Vitality, San Gabriel
Valley Commerce and Cities Consortium initiative.
• SCAG's own efforts in the RCP: E.I.R. tiering and TCMs.
• RAC report recommendations
• Subcommittee on Land Use and Conformity of RC Standing Committee on Implementation. (See
also Chapter 7 (Implementation) of the RCP.
• Providing infrastructure needed for growth' on a cost efficient basis — addressed in Mobility, Water,
and Energy chapters of the RCP.
Intensify existing efforts to educate leaders and the public regarding the economic rationale for
increased public infrastructure investment. Progress in infrastructure funding, however, will require solutions
to state and local government fiscal problems in the 1990s. [revise and expand]
• State and local government fiscal reform
Many strategies for economic prosperity in Southern California (e.g., education, training,
infrastructure, quality of life) are related to state and local government fiscal prospects. In California, local
government fiscal prospects are tied directly to state budget decisions.
This fiscal interrelationship, together with the limited range of general revenue sources at the local level,
makes it highly likely that fundamental fiscal reform at the state and local level will be required in order to
meet the capital investment requirements of the region's economy.
A specialized foundation dealing with fiscal reform is essential to support the region's basic industry clusters.
This is an ideal province for public-private sector cooperation. A model which could be adapted to the needs
of this region already exists among the Joint Venture: Silicon Valley foundations: the Silicon Valley Council
on Tax and Fiscal Policy. A logical first step would be to establish a dialogue.
• Designing a regional education and training strategy70
A highly skilled work force is an indispensable component of Southern California's competitiveness
strategy. A regional education and training strategy for economic competitiveness needs to include the
following:
• Strategies to improve the skills of K-12 graduates.
• Strategies to improve the educational and training opportunities of the "forgotten fifty"—those
students who graduate from high school but do not complete a four-year college education.
Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo Subregion,Southeast Los Angeles County,South Bay Cities,West Riverside Cou.1of Governments,
90 Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo,Los Angeles City,San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,West Riverside Council,of Governments.
Page 2-46 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
C
Chapter Two • The Economy
• Strategies to strengthen California's higher education system and improve its linkages with the
business sector."
• Strategies to train and match labor force skills with future key industry needs.'
With so many educational reform efforts under way in the region, the role of the Consortium should be to
lend expertise and provide support to existing groups in their reform efforts, rather than try to re-invent the
wheel.
• Promoting foreign trade and investment"
The RESC supports the concept of free trade between nations. Regional policy with respect to
foreign trade and investment should nevertheless seek to ensure that multilateral trade agreements (e.g.,
NAFI'A) provide an adequate "phase in" period for both sides to adjust to the new conditions. Consistency
of rules, regulations, and requirements for safety and the environment are examples. Moreover, a trade
agreement is itself a form of economic transition or conversion; as such, adequate and timely assistance
should be provided for both employers and workers whose income stream and/or benefits are significantly
impacted.
The Consortium, in concert with the interested parties, will assist in the formation of a specialized economic
foundation to support and promote foreign trade activity by businesses in the region, as well as a regional
industry cluster involving linked aspects of international trade support services (e.g., goods movement and
handling, telecommunications, repair services, etc.) This effort should include seeking the means and
supporting regional efforts to maintain and upgrade infrastructure related to international trade.
5. STRATEGIES FOR INVESTMENT IN "COMMUNITIES-IN-NEED"
Communities in need are identified and the dimensions of their problems mapped in the Technical Document
accompanying Chapter 7: Human Resources and Services. In this chapter we are concerned with the
economic rationale for focusing attention on communities in need as an essential ingredient of the overall
regional economic strategy. Why should investment resources be allocated to such communities? There are
three basic reasons:
1. The second goal established in Section I of this chapter—ensuring that economic gains are
broadly shared—implies an effort of this sort.
2. Government needs to invest in its own self-interest—in order to protect and enlarge its fiscal
base.
"Subregion input:North Los Angeles County,San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,
"San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,West Riverside Council of Governments.
"San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities, West Riverside Council of Governments.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-47
( l
Chapter Two • The Economy
3. Businesses in the region will likewise be acting in their own best interests in undertaking
investment in communities-in-need. Under a regional approach to the economy, improving
conditions in such areas will have to be an integral part of the business development
strategies. The region's image as a prosperous and dynamic place in which to do business
will remain tarnished unless economic recovery can be seen to be benefitting all major
segments of the population.
Given that there is sufficient economic rationale for an investment strategy benefitting communities in need,
two further questions need to be asked: "Where will the money come from?"; and "How can we ensure that
the cost of providing these resources is minimized?"
A number of public and public-private funding sources already exist in the region but may not be used to
their fullest extent. Examples are Enterprise Zones, Empowerment Zones, Community Development Banks,
Community Redevelopment Areas, and Community Development Corporations.
We need to examine what these programs are really doing for the economy. The aim should not be
temporary relief(however desperately that may be needed) but rather to enable such communities to begin
moving toward economic self-sufficiency. The goal of self-sufficiency is explored in more detail in the
Human Resources chapter of this Plan.
Innovative, non-traditional sources of funds include the following:
• R.L.A. (describe approach) — but needs to be generalized to region.
• A regional Enterprise Trust Fund
As recommended in the 2000 Regional Partnership's Housing Task Force Action Plan, an
innovative financial funding mechanism--the Enterprise Trust Fund--could be''used to
accumulate resources for rebuilding our infrastructure and revitalizing our inner cities.
The essence of the proposal is that an additional fee (a premium) would be placed on specially
packaged mortgages that are sold to investors with the attraction that only the interest above
the rate of inflation would be taxable. The pool of premium money—the Enterprise Trust
Fund—would then be used to finance capital investments and services needed to improve the
capacity of communities-in-need to solve their economic problems.
As an example, if Southern California were able to allocate $3 billion from the Fund to
projects in this area, an estimated 66,000 jobs would be created and nearly $600 million in
federal tax receipts would be generated in the first year. The second year would generate an
estimated $530 million in tax revenues, more than offsetting a $230 million loss to the
Treasury from "inflation-proofing" the taxable yield on the securities in the preceding year.
The program would start with so-called "Negotiated Community Investment Strategies." Local
governments would decide—with input from community-based organizations and business,
private investors and universities—on a strategy for achieving whatever is necessary for the
community's economic revitalization. This might range from job-creating development to
education and training needed to upgrade skills. It could include day care, improved security
or other forms of investment needed to foster economic development.
Page 2-43 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Two • The Economy
Next in the process would be the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
(HUD), which would approve the community strategy. HUD would then certify sales of pools
of mortgages with the accompanying tax advantage. Private investors, government agencies
and nonprofit organizations would execute the strategy. Trust funds, while administered by a
bank or similar supervised entity, would be spent in accordance with the provisions of the
specific strategy rather than the traditional requirements of banking regulations.
The advantages of the proposed Enterprise Trust Fund include:
• By relying on the preferential tax treatment of the securities, it would raise risk capital
through the market, not via the taxation and appropriation process. Community
investments financed in this manner would generate federal and state tax revenues,
contributing to reduction of government budget deficits.
• The community would develop its own strategies with the knowledge that the risk
capital would be available; that banking regulations or traditional credit risk
calculations would not prevent the financing.
• The program would be implemented by the private sector. Local government and the
community-in-need would determine the need and the private sector would work to
fulfill it. There would be no need for project funds to be passed down from the
federal to the state to the local government and then to the community.
• Community partnership models in other regions.
Community partnership efforts to attack the social problems associated with poverty in urban
areas include the Atlanta Project in Georgia, an initiative of former President Jimmy Carter
and The Carter Center, Inc., and the Austin Project in Texas, which is chaired by Walt W.
Rostow. The investment plans put forth by each of these projects aim to reverse the decline
of disadvantaged neighborhoods and ensure the economic and social protection of residents.
Both projects promote the investment of scarce resources in a limited number of areas to meet
specific and stated objectives. The strategies for implementation of the objectives are based on
the principles of:
• continuity of community action from pre-natal care to entrance into the work force;
• priority for preventive investment; and
• partnerships and linkages among all elements of the community
Current plans and budget projections include:
Austin - The First Phase Plan calls for the creation of a Children's Fund — with support from
the federal, state, county and city governments, and foundations and corporations — totalling
$12 million in the first year (1993).
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-49
Chapter Two • The Economy
Atlanta - The five-year budget (1992-1997) includes $20 million in cash and $12.8 million in
in-kind contributions, with additional funds raised for special needs (for example, $4.8 million
has been pledged for documentation, training and evaluation of the project).
Page 2-50 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
GROWTH MANAGEMENT
• Introduction
• Overview of Growth
• Growth-Related Issues
• Growth Management Policies
• The Regional Outlook beyond 2010
A. INTRODUCTION
This chapter addresses the complex issues related to growth and land consumption within the framework of
the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP).
The region is faced with the monumental task of dealing with the consequences of rapid growth in an era of
dwindling physical, natural, and economic resources. Change and evolution will come at a price, and unless
their consequences are foreseen and dealt with, the cost of growth could be too high for this region to absorb.
Growth at any cost can result in a lower quality of life for all. Managed growth, on the other hand, could be
an energizing force by providing an environment that attracts business and capital investments to the region,
open opportunities for jobs, housing, and education, help attain mobility and air quality goals, and maintain
quality of life.
The purpose of the Growth Management chapter is to suggest guiding principles for growth and development
that are supportive of the strategic goals of the RCP. These overall goals are to re-invigorate the region's
economy, avoid social and economic inequities and the geographical dislocation of communities, and to
maintain the region's quality of life. The Growth Management goals are presented in Table 3-1.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-1
Chapter Three • Growth Management
Table 3-1
Growth Management Goals
RCP Goals Standard of Quality of Equity
Living Life
GME Goals Develop Urban Forms that: • Develop Urban Forms that: • Develop urban forms
that:
• Minimize public and private o preserve open space and natural o Avoid economic and
development costs resources social polarization
• Enable individuals to spend less o Are aesthetically pleasing and
income on housing costs preserve the character of • Accommodate a diversity
communities of life styles
• Enable firms to be more
competitive • Attain mobility and clean air
goals
B. OVERVIEW OF GROWTH
1 . REGIONAL TRENDS
During the next two decades, Southern California will continue to experience population growth and
development but, along with growth, the region's features will undergo extensive transformations. In 2010 it
is expected that there will be 20.5 million people living here and 9.7 million jobs available for workers.
The ethnic makeup of this population will continue to evolve toward higher proportions of people of Hispanic
and Asian descent. Whereas, in the past, migration played the dominant role in population increase, births
will constitute the major portion of future growth. The younger and older segments of the population will
grow rapidly, and workers will have to support a larger share of the total population.
Table 3-2
Median Age of the U.S. and the SCAG Region, 1990 and 2010
1990 010
U.S. 32.9 7.4
SCAG 1 30.6 1 32.3
Population growth and diversity are a source of economic and cultural vitality, as well as social challenges.
Inter-group tensions, unequal access to services, unequal access to employment and educational opportunities,
social and geographical segregation can also accompany rapid growth and diversity. Chapter 7 identifies
desirable solutions to existing and potential social problems which come as a consequence of growth
dynamics.
Page 3-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Amok
Chapter Three • Growth Management
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING GROWTH
SCAG REGION 1970-2010
25
POPULATION
- EMPLOYMENT 20.51
20 --HOUSING
i
u3 15
Z
O
J
J
10 9.7
5 7.2
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
YEAR
FIGURE 3-1
Although the number of people per household will probably remain high, the same amount of dwelling units
will have to be constructed as in the past decade, on the average, every year to adequately house the growing
population. The ethnic and racial mix of households will reflect the population diversity and underlie shifting
demands for housing. Chapter 6 attempts to provide answers to the fundamental question: How to bring the
housing costs and decent shelter within the reach of more households as the region develops into the next
century?.
The sweeping demographic changes that are already underway will also affect the region's labor force. A
large proportion of the new residents and workers will be recent immigrants or children of recent immigrants.
The rising skills requirements of new jobs will probably not match the capacities of workers across all ethnic
groups. This could depress the average income and the wealth generated, thus lowering the quality of life in
the region.' Long-term economic forecasts for the region, and strategies to attain real income growth and
ensure that economic gains are broadly shared are fully analyzed in Chapter 2. Strategies for improving the
quality of the region's work force are detailed in Chapter 7.
'Several years ago SCAG undertook an analysis of social disparities(with a Ford Foundation grant distributed by the National
Association of Regional Councils). The study revealed that polarization of jobs by skill and wage is intensifying, and that
traditional blue collar jobs are being replaced by mid-level jobs requiring different verbal,computational and communication skills.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-3
Chapter Three • Growth Management
ANNUAL AVERAGE COMPONENTS
OF POPULATION GROWTH
aoo
HISTORICAL . 356 357 PROJECTION
321
300 128 279 286 291 298
265 1� �
N 47 71 BS 88
0
z
200 186 137
O
~ 121 98
100
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®NAT.INC ❑NET.MIG
FIGURE 3-2
DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY ETHNICITY
SCAG REGION 1990 & 2010
1990 2010
419.7% NH WHITE
36.1%
BLACK
8.1%
ASIAN &OTHERS .. ...?:»;;
11.5%
8.0%
9.2%
HISPANIC
44.3%
FIGURE 3-3
Page 3-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Three • Growth Management
DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR
SCAG REGION 1990 & 2010
1990 2010
4.3% 4.4%
22.1%
21.490 17.5%
12.9%
.3% 6.2% .9%
1.0% 7%
6.2%
7.7% / 7.4%
'i V006
12.3% 11.2%
25.3% 31.3%
FIGURE 3-4
IM Agriculture &Mining ® Construction ® Manufacturing
Transportation ® Trade ® Finance
® Services ® Government E3 Self-employed
2. SUBREGIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF GROWTH
The regional forecasts were disaggregated to counties, subregions, cities, and smaller geographies through a
bottom-up, inter-active process in which subregional organizations played a crucial role by providing
information and technical input.
The DRAM/EMPAL model, was used to produce a small-area forecast that allocates growth to different areas
based on their relative attractiveness. This distribution contained no adjustments for local zoning or growth
constraints. Additionally, staff met with the Planning Director or their representative for each of the cities to
arrive at a city-level forecast that represents not only the best estimate of future growth, but also one which
reflects local conditions. The resulting distributions of population, housing, and employment to subregions
and cities constitute a forecasts that public entities are currently anticipating without further policy
intervention. This base case forecast was used for modeling of travel characteristics and emissions of air
pollutants.
Two alternative distributions were developed for transportation modeling and the Environmental Impact
Report (EIR) analysis. One alterative reflects the job/housing balance distributions of the 1989 Growth
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-5
Chapter Three • Growth Management
Management Plan (GMP), with updated regional totals. The second alternative concentrates growth around
rail and transit stations.
Figures 3-5 and 3-6 show the rate of growth in population, housing and employment for each subregion,
between 1990 and 2000, and between 2000 and 2010. They indicate that the fastest growth rates will take
place in the outlying areas of the region, namely North Los Angeles County and the Inland Empire. Future
development is expected to occur at fairly low-densities as depicted in Figures 3-7 and 3-8.
Preliminary modeling results based on the base case socioeconomic distributions, indicate that, in some
outlying areas of the region, forecast growth could severely impact the transportation infrastructure, leading
to excessive congestion. The forecast distributions will be finalized after discussion of modeling results,
analysis of EIR alternatives, and resolution of growth related issues by technical and policy'committees. The
forecast adopted by the Regional Council will underlie the development of the different components of the
RCP.
Page 3-6 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
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Chapter Three • Growth Management
C. GROWTH-RELATED ISSUES
As this region continues to expand a number of issues are likely to emerge and/or intensify. Growth and
growth distributions, as well as changing demographic and economic characteristics, will impact all aspects of
life in the region.
This chapter focusses on the implications of growth distributions on urban form, mobility, air quality, and
open space. It also addresses the related issues of economic development, socioeconomic equity,
fiscalization, and policy implementation.
1 . URBAN FORM, MOBILITY, AND AIR QUALITY
Land-use and density patterns influence to a large extent the way people choose to travel, the distances they
must cover, and the time they spend to reach their destination. This, in turn, determines the amount of
congestion on the roadways, the amount of fuel consumed, and consequent air pollution.
The 1991 federal Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) stresses the integration of land-
use policies and transportation programs. Land-use measures and growth management strategies to reduce
congestion, vehicle trips, and Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), are important requirements to meet the
California air quality standards.
a. Approaches to Urban Form Analysis
1. Large-Scale/Regional Urban Form
The large-scale urban form approach implies the implementation of a land use policy at the regional level.
m The 1989 GMP job/housing balance policy is an example. The job/housing balance policy proposed in the
1989 GMP was included in the 1989 Regional Mobility Plan (RMP) as a strategy to regain 1984 levels of
mobility. It was also included as a Transportation Control Measure (TCM) in the Air Quality Plan (AQMP
Measure 17). The aim of this land-use strategy was to relieve the pressures of population and job-growth
distributions on the transportation system by achieving more balanced future developments. Job/housing
balance accounted for 8 percent reduction in congestion and 33 percent of emission reductions resulting from
TCM in the AQMP.
The position that job/housing balance would occur, over time, without regional policy intervention, is
partially supported by recent data. The base case 2010 distributions imply job/housing balance ratios that are
a marked improvement over the job/housing ratios in the 1989 GMP. Analytical subregions which become
more balanced over time, or do not deteriorate, will comprise 60 percent of the total regional housing and
employment. On the other hand, some subregions will experience greater imbalance and will comprise 40
percent of the total regional housing and employment.
Transportation and emission modeling results show that achieving job/housing balance ratios equivalent to the
1989 GMP in subregions moving to greater imbalance helps achieve a 2.65 percent reduction in VMT
traveled during morning rush hours. Compared to the base-case forecast, this scenario also leads to a 19.5
percent reduction in hours of delay, a 9.21 percent increase in speed, and a reduction of Reactive Organic
Gases (ROG) of more than 1 ton per day. The implications of this model run will be evaluated in the EIR.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-13
Chapter Three • Growth Management
The question facing decision-makers is whether such gains warrant re-examining the issue of job/housing
balance at the regional scale. The mobility and air quality benefits of large scale job/housing balance are an
important consideration in negotiations of the final distributions of growth. Nevertheless, it should be
recognized that phasing and timing of development are as important as achieving the proper job/housing
balance to yield the desired environmental benefits.'
2. Medium-Scale/Transit-Oriented Urban Form
This approach links anticipated transportation investments to the types of land uses most likely to promote
patronage of the transit system. SCAG commissioned a team of consultants, lead by the Urban Innovation
Group, to investigate different theoretical urban form alternatives relative to regional mobility and air quality
objectives. The team identified public investments in transportation, and proposed three cases of transit
oriented urban development.
The first case examines the effects on transit ridership of directing and concentrating new development near
rail stations. The second case also increases new development in existing activity centers serviced by intra-
center shuttles with express bus routes to other centers. The third case implies trend-line distributions of
population and employment. To enhance the benefits of concentrated development, a multi-occupant vehicle
para-transit system to service local travel, and connect to bus and rail stations for longer distance travel, is
assumed.
Qualitative analytical results show that, for each of the three cases, modal split for transit in the home-to-
work travel market increases compared to trend-line projections. However, transit-oriented development
enhanced by a multi-tiered, ubiquitous, transit system (third case) is the only scenario that produces the modal
split goal of 19 percent, by 2010, established by the 1989 RMP.
Such a system would entail no major change to existing regional urban form but would rely on investing in a
demand responsive transit system (Smart Shuttle Transit) capable of servicing a large market. Dispatching of
vehicles would be based on advanced telecommunications and computer tracking. This scenario, based on
fine tuning multiple use neighborhood development and on advanced technologies, can create job
opportunities, and sustained economic development.'
The Urban Form transportation modeling run was designed to measure the sensitivity of land-use changes
within close proximity to existing and planned rail stations. Forty-five percent of employment growth
between 1990 and 2010, and 35 percent of household growth, were directed in a one-half-ririle radius around
the rail stations. Results showed that concentration of development slightly improves the share of total trips
captured by transit regionwide (transit ridership increases by 0.5 percent). Nonetheless, in'zones around rail
stations, transit ridership increases by 7.7 percent in 2010. Results of this model run should be interpreted in
light of the fact the regional model was not initially designed to test the relationship between land use and
transit patronage, and does not reflect behavioral changes that come with more compact development, such as
'Reflects subregional input from South Bay, SANBAG, San Gabriel Valley Cities Association, Orange County and VCOG
subregions.
?The UIG Urban Form study was revised to reflect subregional comments. See in particular comments from SANBAG and
Los Angeles City. Full text of the study presented in appendix.
Page 3-14 0 December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
MIME, iiiiili�RQV,_
rs
Chapter Three • Growth Management
vehicle ownership reductions and reduced access time to transit stations'
T 3. Small-Scale/Localized Urban Form
The third approach to urban form is based on local actions to affect site specific patterns of development.
Such actions include allowing the combination of usually separated land uses within a single development;
increasing development density along transit corridors and/or stations; clustering development to preserve
open space; achieving better jobs/housing balance at the micro scale, and a better match between the types of
jobs and the price of housing. Such actions can be carried out through local jurisdictions' regulatory powers.
Design standards improvement actions are another category that could affect Urban Form at the local level.
These include the provision of physical features that encourage transit use, cut the need for cold starts, and
encourage pedestrian and bicycle travel. Amenities such as bus shelters and bus pullouts to improve transit,
physical improvements that support pedestrian traffic, the construction of bike lanes and provision of secure
bike racks, and parking arrangements that facilitate ride sharing can help achieve vehicle trips reduction.
Changes to existing zoning, general plan amendments, and specific plans that encourage concentrated, mixed
use, transit and pedestrian oriented development, are tools which can be used by local jurisdictions to foster
land-use policies that, along with adequate Transportation Demand Management (TDM) programs and non-
motorized infrastructure, can reduce environmental and economic costs of motorized trips.
The effect of such measures on vehicle trips and VMT are difficult to model. According to a study
conducted by the Air Resource Board, mixed-use development and increased densities can reduce 4 to I I of
a region's vehicle trips and 20-to-50 percent of site-specific trips.
Subregional Input
The general consensus among subregions is that a localized approach to urban form and land use development
would be the most beneficial in meeting mobility and air quality goals, and sustained economic development.
Subregional plans and comments submitted indicated that existing or proposed policies and implementation
strategies of local jurisdictions support the types of actions mentioned above.` This approach does not
necessitate redirecting future development regionwide, or massive concentration of new development along
transit stations and transit corridors.
Linkages and Relationships to Other RCP Components
Land-use actions are an essential component of the RME to improve regional mobility, and of the AQME to
achieve clean air standards. Local land-use actions that target both work and non-work trips and are aimed
at maximizing access to the transportation system, and options to choose among travel modes, are also
beneficial for air quality since they help reduce dependence on the auto.
The Growth Management position and the land-use component of the Mobility and Air Quality strategies are
3The different model runs assumptions and results are detailed in the GME.
`Reflects subregional input from IVAG, Los Angeles City, North Los Angeles, West Side Summit, South Bay, SELAC, San
Gabriel Valley, SANBAG,WRCOG, Arroyo Verdugo subregions and comments on the Air Quality Element by Orange County.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-15
i
0
Chapter Three • Growth Management
based on the premise that local jurisdictions have the primary authority over land use decisions. The
development of public-private partnerships is essential to bring about the desirable land use changes which
will help achieve the goals of better mobility and air quality. This is consistent with the RCP strategy which
advocates a self-regulating approach instead of "command and control", and which recognizes the mutual
dependence of the public and private sectors in bringing about desired changes.
b. Open Space and Conservation
The preservation of open space and conservation of natural resources are vital to the health and safety of
individuals. They also contribute to the maintenance of the quality of life, to enrichment of urban form, and
to the regional economic balance.
The need to preserve and conserve forests, agricultural preserves, and flood plains, to protect endangered
species, particular habitats and wetlands, to accommodate hazard zones, and to provide recreational areas, is
discussed in Chapter 9. The control of development in areas susceptible to natural hazards helps prevent
catastrophic losses of human lives, property and resources. All too often, natural disasters strike in areas not
meant for safe human habitat. Restriction of development or the imposition of strict design criteria in
designated areas, can curtail the psychological and fiscal burdens of fighting disasters and coping with their
aftermath. In the same vein, zoning practices which safeguard historical, cultural, and archeological sites
contribute to the preservation of open space and the enrichment of human existence.
However, open space policies, if not properly designed, could lead to land- and development-cost increases,
and potentially conflict with efficient attainment of housing and economic development goals. The trade-offs
between conservation of open space and the other growth management goals must be carefully weighed.
Subre iog_nal Input
The paradox between the need to accommodate growth and the necessity of preserving open space can be
eliminated with proactive planning. The Urban Development Guidelines, Support of Agriculture, Permanent
Preservation Programs, Development Requirements and Greenbelt Program approved by the Ventura County
Association of Governments (VCOG) subregion are examples of local policies and strategies to preserve open
space, protect community identity and mitigate impacts of growth.' Disincentives to growth in areas
designated for preservation is another policy to promote safety and conserve open space'.
Linkages and Relationships with Other RCP Components
The Open Space chapter stresses the importance of balancing the need for additional development and the
need to protect the region's natural ecosystems and open space resources. Land-use decisions to
accommodate growth should be weighed for their potential impacts on natural resources. Multiple-habitat
planning, better cooperation between land owners, local jurisdictions, agencies responsible for land
management, and better cooperation among subregions can minimize the negative effects on the environment.
This would have the dual effect of reducing the costs of ecosystem management as well as development costs.
Goals and policies of the San Gabriel Valley Subregional Plan and proposed policies of Los Angeles City and the IVAG
subregions support this position.
°Proposed by Los Angeles City Subregion.
Page 3-16 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
r
to 1
Chapter Three • Growth Management
I
2. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND SOCIAL DISPARITY
Forces of the global economy, technologic changes, immigration, neighborhood segregation, and growth
itself, among other factors, are resulting in disparities in education, job, and housing opportunity. The same
forces contribute to geographic polarization by income. Social polarization and disparity tend to reinforce
each other.
Providing appropriate jobs close to major population concentration and affordable housing close to major
employment opportunities can help address the job and housing opportunity disparities.
As jobs requiring improved verbal, computational, and communication skills replace traditional blue-collar
jobs, education and training, or retraining, will be essential in accomplishing this transition in the labor force.
The training challenge is magnified by the trend towards smaller companies which are often not able to
arrange for, or provide, the training themselves. Policies in Chapter 2 address these challenges.
Chapter 6 deals with the issue of providing diverse types of housing for people of differing ages, for differing
incomes and for different family size or make-up. If housing production can not meet the demands indicated
in the forecast, then overcrowding in existing older communities is likely to occur. High, or escalating,
housing costs could be detrimental to the maintenance of the region's competitive edge. This could result in
growth distributions different from the forecast. Preservation, rehabilitation and code enforcement are related
housing issues.
Achieving "sustainable communities" implies that economic and housing opportunities are available in all
parts of the region. Revitalization of lower-income areas—the areas "left behind"—is a critical and growing
challenge for the region. These concerns are addressed in Chapter 7.
Subregional Input
Tools to contain housing and infrastructure costs to maintain economic competitiveness are suggested by the
Los Angeles City subregion. They include locating new housing development where infrastructure capacity
already exists, particularly through mixed-use development at transit locations; revitalizing dilapidated areas;
capitalizing on community assets such as historic resources, strong community organization and multi-cultural
cooperation; promoting infill development appropriate to each neighborhood; rehabilitating existing
structures; promoting home ownership opportunities; making adaptive reuses of closed plants, surplus
school sites and vacant buildings'; establishing priorities for business assistance and tax free financing in
areas where job development is needed ; providing opportunities for households of all income levels";
streamlining the permitting process10
Several subregions have suggested ways to meet the challenge of achieving "sustainable communities". Their
7Consistent with goals and policies of the San Gabriel Valley subregional plan, and SELAC comments.
°WRCOG recommendation.
°Input from Arroyo Verdugo.
'o VAG recommendations include the coordination of permitting process.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-17
to
Chapter Three • Growth Management
policies call for the provision of the proper mix of economic and housing opportunities, and assuring that
health, quality education, recreation, welfare, protection, commercial, religious, and non-profit services are
available to all communities, including lower income areas."
Linkages and Relationships with Other Plan Components
To remain economically competitive, the region must maintain a well trained work force, an adequate
infrastructure to move people, goods and information quickly and at competitive cost, a competitive quality of
life, and a competitive business climate.
The development of locally desirable urban forms can assist in the achievement of economic competitiveness
and the attainment of the RCP goals. They are essential for implementation of human resources development
policies. There is also an intricate link between proper land use planning and the provision of adequate and
affordable housing.
Local land-use actions, such as proper zoning, density bonuses, mixed-use, balanced growth and the proper
mix of housing opportunities by building type and income level, phasing of growth and infrastructure,
streamlining of the permitting process (for land use, construction and operations), can help bring down the
Cost of housing and development, and help resolve the issues raised in the Housing chapter. This would also
help improve the region's quality of life, retain trained and skilled workers in the region, and therefore, help
the region to regain it's economic Competitive edge.
Making employment, entertainment and tourist centers more accessible, through the coordination of land use
and transportation facilities, reinforce economic development policies for the region.
Whereas it is expected that each jurisdiction and/or subregion will formulate its own approach to land use
issues, the decisions of one jurisdiction also affects surrounding ones. Successful implementation of desirable
land-use changes will require decision-making through consensus building and dispute resolution as proposed
in the RCP's Strategy chapter.
Consensus building and resolution of disputes about land-use is also advantageous from an economic
development perspective. Developers go where they are welcome. Proper zoning and land-use designations
within and across jurisdictions can facilitate the formation of economic clusters, the physical movement of
goods, and the generation of jobs in the types of industries which will stimulate the economy and help achieve
economic goals for the region.
The appropriate zoning designations can facilitate the provision of recreational, educational, and training
facilities and ensure their accessibility to all residents. These actions would also enable communities in need
to become sustainable, as advocated in the Human Resources and Services chapter.
3. FISCAL ISSUES AND IMPLEMENTATION
In an era of financial difficulties and fiscal constraints, competition among jurisdictions to attract revenue-
"This strategy to achieve sustainable communities is advocated in subregional comments and plans of IVAG, Arroyo
Verdugo, WRCOG, Los Angeles City, San Gabriel Valley Cities Association, and SELAC.
Page 3-18 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Three • Growth Management
generating development becomes more intense. This practice tends to exacerbate disparities between
communities. Some communities, which are at a competitive disadvantage and financially strapped, find it
increasingly difficult to provide their residents with the needed infrastructure and services. The same
communities are often impacted, and shouldering more than their fair share of regional growth.
The debate toward the resolution of the various issues related to growth distribution and urban form must
consider the issue of equitable distribution of development cost among communities, and between the private
and public sector. Each community should have an opportunity to participate in economic development, and
to generate a sound fiscal base to provide for the needs of its residents. The degree to which this is realized
will determine the economic strength and vitality of the region, the establishment of sustainable communities,
and the maintenance of the regional quality of life. The Finance chapter discusses ways to make this
possible.
The implications of these fiscal issues, an implementation strategy to overcome disparities, and the design of
an appropriate monitoring program, need to be identified and debated by subregions. The discussion of
issues, and final resolutions, rests with local governments. The method for distributing costs for installation
of infrastructure or services in a fiscally responsible manner are critical, and require full involvement of local
governments and subregions.
Subregional Input
Suggestions to deal with this issue were provided through the subregional input process. They include the
following: encourage efficient patterns of development that reduce public-service delivery costs"; seek
assistance from state and regional agencies for planning and implementation of mixed-use development;
change legislation to permit transfer of funds from redevelopment set asides or other sources for the provision
of housing on a city-to-city basis"; seek fair-share state and/or federal financing for the cost of growth'`;
address competition strategies for intra-subregional planning's; link distribution of additional gas tax money
to evidence of good faith effort to provide more concentrated density around transit corridors1°; support
joint contracting, revenue sharing and joint provision of services by local jurisdictions.`' Charging higher
infrastructure costs for developments that require new facilities", and establishing developer fees to provide
growth related services and infrastructure appropriate to the level and type of proposed developmene", are
suggested methods to overcome fiscal constraints. However, the last two measures can potentially conflict
"VCOG input to RCP.
13 Included in SELAC subregional plan recommendations, CVAG comments and WRCOG Growth Management goals and
principles.
"Suggested by-WRCOG.
"input from Arroyo Verdugo Subregion.
/°Input from West Side Summit.
17 Included in WRCOG goals and policies.
1BInput from South Bay Cities Association subregional Strategy.
1°Included in WRCOG Growth Management goals and objectives.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-19
Chapter Three • Growth Management
with the goal of reducing development costs.
Linkages and Relationships with Other RCP Components
The same land-use actions that help attract and sustain economic development are useful to revitalize
disadvantaged communities and provide solutions to issues raised in the Housing, and Human Resources and
Services chapters.
Suggestions provided by subregions to overcome the problems of fiscalization of land use also help achieve
the goal of community self-sufficiency examined in the Human Resources and Services chapter.
As discussed in Chapter 2, funding sources such Enterprise Zones, Employment Zones, Community
Development Banks, Community Redevelopment Areas, and Community Development Corporations can be
tapped to defray development costs incurred by local jurisdictions for the provision of services, equally to all
residents. Furthermore, fiscal reform is essential to support the region's infrastructure needs and attract the
region's basic industry clusters. The Finance chapter proposes a model for public-private cooperation to deal
with fiscal reform at the state and local level.
The Housing chapter explores alternative funding sources for the production and subsidy of housing. The use
of redevelopment set aside for housing, waiving development requirements and fees for provision of low-
income housing, land banking and the development of partnerships with non-profit organizations are tools that
can be used by local jurisdictions to overcome fiscal problems, increase the production of housing, and
develop sustainable communities.
D. GROWTH MANAGEMENT POLICIES
The following policies are intended to guide growth in the region and mitigate its negative impacts. They are
consistent with subregional input', and reflect possible answers to the growth related issues discussed
above.
1 . POLICIES RELATED TO GROWTH FORECASTS:
• The population, housing, and jobs forecasts, which are adopted by SCAG's Regional Council and that
reflect local plans and policies, shall be used in all phases of implementation and review.
• In areas with large seasonal population fluctuations, such as resort areas, forecast permanent populations.
However, appropriate infrastructure systems should be sized to serve high-season population total.
• The timing, financing, and location of public facilities, utility systems, and transportation systems shall
be used to implement the region's growth policies and to achieve the desired regional form.
2OSee in particular input of WRCOG, IVAG, San Gabriel Valley, SELAC, Arroyo Verdugo, West Side Summit and VCOG
subregions.
Page 3-20 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Three • Growth Management
2. POLICIES RELATED TO THE RCP GOAL TO IMPROVE THE REGIONAL
STANDARD OF LIVING
The Growth Management goals to develop urban forms that enable individuals to spend less income on
housing cost, that minimize public- and private-development costs, and that enable firms to be more
competitive, strengthen the regional strategic goal to stimulate the regional economy. The following policies
would guide achievement of such goals.
• SCAG shall encourage local jurisdictions' efforts to achieve a balance between the types of jobs they
seek to attract and housing prices.
• SCAG shall encourage patterns of urban development and land use which reduce costs on infrastructure
construction and make better use of existing facilities.
• SCAG shall support subregional policies that recognize agriculture as an industry, support the economic
viability of agricultural activities, preserve agricultural land and provide compensation for property
owners holding lands in greenbelt areas."
• SCAG shall encourage subregions to define an economic strategy to maintain the economic vitality of the
r subregion, including the development and use of marketing programs, and other economic incentives,
which support attainment of subregional goals and policies.'
• SCAG shall support local jurisdictions efforts to minimize cost of infrastructure and public service
delivery, and efforts to seek new sources of funding for development and the provision of services.
• SCAG shall support local jurisdictions actions to minimize red tape and expedite the permitting process
to maintain economic vitality and competitiveness.
3. POLICIES RELATED TO THE RCP GOAL TO MAINTAIN THE REGIONAL
QUALITY OF LIFE.
The Growth Management goals to attain mobility and clean air goals and to develop urban forms that
enhance quality of life, that accommodate a diversity of life styles, that preserve open space and natural
resources, and that are aesthetically pleasing and preserve the character of communities, enhance the regional
strategic goal of maintaining the regional quality of life. The following policies would provide direction to
reach such goals.
• SCAG shall support provisions and incentives created by local jurisdictions to attract housing growth in
job rich subregions and job growth in housing rich subregions.'
s
21 Input from VCOG and IVAG.
nlnput by WRCOG.
nRevised per WRCOG suggestion.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-21
I IN
Chapter Three • Growth Management
• SCAG shall encourage existing or proposed local jurisdictions programs aimed at designing land uses
which encourage the use of transit and thus reduce the need for roadway expansion, reduce the number
of auto trips and vehicle miles traveled, and create opportunities for residents to walk and bike.
• SCAG shall encourage local jurisdictions plans that maximize the use of existing urbanized areas
accessible to transit through infill and redevelopment.
• SCAG shall support local plans to increase density of future development located at strategic points along
the regional commuter rail, transit systems and activity centers.
• SCAG shall support local jurisdictions strategies to establish mixed-use clusters and other transit oriented
developments around transit stations and along transit corridors.
• SCAG shall encourage developments in and around activity centers`, transportation node corridors,
under-utilized infrastructure systems and areas needing recycling and redevelopment.
• SCAG shall support and encourage settlement patterns which contain a range of urban densities.
• SCAG shall encourage planned development in locations least likely to cause adverse environmental
impact.
• National Forests shall remain permanently preserved and used as open space. SCAG shall support
policies and actions that preserve open space areas identified in local, state, and federal plans.
• Vital resources as wetlands, groundwater recharge areas, woodlands, production lands, and land
containing unique and endangered plants and animals should be protected.
• SCAG shall encourage the implementation of measures aimed at the preservation and protection of
recorded and unrecorded cultural resources and archaeological sites.
• SCAG shall discourage development, or encourage the use of special design requirements, in areas with
steep slopes, high fire, flood, and seismic hazards.
• SCAG shall encourage mitigation measures that reduce noise in certain locations, measures aimed at
preservation of biological and ecological resources,, measures that would reduce exposure to seismic
hazards, minimize earthquake damage and to develop emergency response and recovery plans.
4. POLICIES RELATED TO THE RCP GOAL TO PROVIDE SOCIAL,
POLITICAL, AND CULTURAL EQUITY.
The Growth Management goal to develop urban forms that avoid economic and social polarization promotes
the regional strategic goal of minimizing social and geographical disparities and of reaching equity among all
'Activity centers are defined in the RME.
'Sae IVAG, VCOG, Los Angeles City and San Gabriel Cities Association for specific open space policies.
Page 3-22 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
Chapter Three • Growth Management
segments of society. The following policies would guide the accomplishment of this goal:
• SCAG shall encourage efforts of local jurisdictions in the implementation of programs that increase the
supply and quality of housing and provide affordable housing as evaluated in the Regional Housing
Needs Assessment.
• SCAG shall encourage the efforts of local jurisdictions, employers and service agencies to provide
adequate training and retraining of workers, and prepare the labor force to meet the future challenges of
the regional economy.
• SCAG shall encourage employment development in job-poor localities through support of labor force
retraining programs and other economic development measures.
• SCAG shall support local jurisdictions and other service providers in their efforts to develop sustainable
communities and provide, equally to all members of society, accessible and effective services such as:
public education, housing, health care, child care, social services, recreational facilities, law
enforcement, and fire protection.
E. THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK BEYOND 2010
Probing some of the future possibilities provides the opportunity to more clearly see the challenges ahead.
1 . CHANGE DYNAMICS
a. Regional Demographics and Economy:
Stretching the forecast horizon, and assuming that the same dynamics influencing regional growth till 2010
will operate for another ten years, population is expected to reach 22.1 million in 2015 and 23.7 million in
2020. The rate of population growth will continue to decline, and births will constitute an ever increasing
proportion of the growth. The proportion of 65 years old and over will also increase, but the population will
remain younger than the national average. The number of housing units needed to properly house the
increasing population will grow to 7.8 million in 2015 and 8.5 million in 2020. The number of jobs will
reach 10.4 million in 2015 and 10.9 million in 2020.
The dynamics of demographic change are very fluid and these shifts can occur in relatively brief time
periods. The growth forecasts for 2010 show non-Hispanic White (NHW), and Hispanic populations at 36
percent and 44 percent, respectively, of total regional population. By 2020 it is highly probable that the
Hispanic population will reach 47 percent and that the Asian population will reach 12 percent. If the Black
population continues to stay at 8 percent, NHW could be 33 percent of the total population. It may be, of
course, that ethnic divisions will have become more blurred and lose significance as time passes. On the jobs
side the following dynamics are possible; continued increase in smaller companies, quite footloose as to
location; decreasing share of manufacturing jobs as a percent of total jobs, and possibly in real numbers;
f
1°The regional and subregional forecasts are preliminary.They have not been thoroughly reviewed through the subregional
input process and are subject to revisions.In the review process they will be subjected the same bottom-up interactive procedure
followed for development of the 2000 and 2010 forecasts.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-23
Chapter Three • Growth Management
POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING GROWTH
SCAG REGION 2015 AND 2020
25
-POPULATION
EMPLOYMENT 23.7
20 --HOUSING
22
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0 10.4 10.9
10,
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020
YEAR
FIGURE 3-9
jobs requiring different skills from those needed in the past; emergence of new transportation systems that
may result in new business and industry centers.
Page 3-24 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
1
Chapter Three • Growth Management
Preliminary Draft Subregional and County distributions of population and employment in 2015 are shown in
Tables 3-5 and 3-6.
Table 3-5
Preliminary Draft Subregional Forecasts, 2015
SUBREGION POPULATION HOUSING EMPLOYMENT
NORTH LA 1,167,000 375,000 292,000
LA CITY 4,752,000 1,711,000 2,214,000
ARROYO VERDUGO 673,000 264,000 466,000
SAN GABRIEL VALLEY 1,804,000 558,000 811,000
WEST SIDE SUMMrr 272,000 136,000 266,000
SOUTH BAY CITIES 946,000 350,000 621,000
SELAC:S.E. LA 2,233,000 695,000 1,142,000
ORANGE COUNTY 3,182,000 1,130,000 2,006,000
WRCOG:W.RIV. 2,297,000 824,000 660,000
COACHELLA 557,000 242,000 177,000
RTV. REMAINDER 71,000 29,000 13,000
VCOG• 960,000 366,000 463,000
VCOG:SANTA CLARITA 209,000 76,000 65,000
SAN BERNARDINO 2,660,000 959,000 953,000
IMPERIAL 254,000 73,000 77,000
SCAG TOTAL- 22,000,000 7,787,000 10,226,000
•VCOG includes Ventura County and three cities in LA County.
SCAG Growth Management Element, 1993
Source:SCAG Draft Base Forecast, 1993
c
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-25
Chapter Three • Growth Management
Table 3-6
Preliminary Draft County Forecasts, 2015
COUNTY POPULATION HOUSING EMPLOYMENT
LOS ANGELES 12,096,000 3,958,000 5,908,000
ORANGE 3,182,000 1,130,000 2,006,000
RIVERSIDE 2,925,000 1,095,000 850,000
SAN BERNARDINO 2,6609000 959,000 953,000
VENTURA 921,000 352,000 431,000
IMPERIAL 254,000 73,000 77,000
SCAG TOTAL 22,000,000 7,787,000 10,226,000
SCAG Draft Growth Management Element, 1
Source:SCAG Draft Base Forocast, 1993
b. Advanced Technology
From a growth management and urbanization perspective a few vital technologic possibilities include the
following:
• Alternative Fuels: Particularly renewable energy sources including especially those which are non-
polluting and easily available. This would expand available large scale urbanization alternatives, create
major new economic development opportunities, and significantly change international trade.
• Communication Systems: The communication revolution has already infiltrated the worlds of work,
entertainment, education, and shopping. The future promises an expansion of these emerging trends.
Advanced communications systems and equipment will likely be the vehicles of the future, reducing
reliance on the auto.
• Transportation Systems: Supersonic jets, which would cut flight time for long-distance flights by one-
half; maglev rail, or vertical take-off and landing aircraft, which would make sites 100-to-200 miles
away accessible to major present centers; new-style automobiles, such as "lean-machines," which would
operate in narrower lanes, and would expand the capacity of existing roads; computerized electric cars,
which would permit operations with minimal space between vehicles, would increase the capacity of
roadways, and would mitigate highway congestion; slower-speed people-movers, from variations of
electric carts and mopeds to moving sidewalks, which would be especially useful as distributors and
collectors in conjunction with transit systems; jitneys that competitively move people in a new form of
transit would reduce reliance on the privately owned auto.
c. Regional Infrastructures
Changing life-styles and values and political institutional organization will impact infrastructure needs. Much
of the existing infrastructure is currently obsolete due to deferred maintenance or due simply,to aging and the
rapid pace of recent changes. Between now and 2010 a proportion of the housing built in the late 1940s, the
Page 3-26 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
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Chapter Three • Growth Management
1950s, or 1960s will need replacing or major renovation. The currently obsolete infrastructure will need
replacement and repair.
Office buildings of the 1980s could become obsolete beyond 2010, as are those built 40 years ago. Shopping
centers, already threatened by the new merchandising techniques of discount stores, outlet centers and
electronic purchasing, will have to be revamped. Parking structures, including the huge basement caverns,
could become antiquated. Schools, hospitals, churches, amusement parks, sports stadia will have to be
restructured to fit new life styles and environments or become archaic, as have the old amusement parks
along the beach. The communication revolution will no doubt impact the various transformations.
2. ALTERNATIVE POSSIBLE GROWTH PATTERNS
Whether growth will continue beyond 2010 as forecast between now and 2010, or significantly slow, stop, (or
even reverse itself) are alternative assumptions.
Another assumption both in the no-growth and the continued-growth paths is whether to expect widely
dispersed growth and urbanization of additional desert and/or agricultural lands, or whether to count on very
compacted growth with, at the extreme, all growth handled by densification and infill.
The next assumption is similar to the densification-compaction issue but deals with compaction at a different
scale: the issue of "spread" vs. "centered" growth. Whether urbanizing new undeveloped lands or re-
urbanizing by infill or densification, will the focus be on creating higher density mixed use centers and
corridors, or on the more evenly spread out lower density arrangements with clearly separated land uses?.
3. GROWTH MANAGEMENT PRIORITIES
Given the above discussion of dynamics and possible alternatives, what growth management policies seem
most critical in relation to the "beyond 2010" time frame?
a. Small ScaleA_ocalized Planning
Local actions such as mixed-land-use, localized job/housing balance, increasing development density along
transit corridors and/or stations and preserving open space, and design standards which affect site-specific
patterns of development, will continue to be growth management priorities past 2010. This is important since
it is generally acknowledged that localized changes in urban form are incremental, and that their cumulative
impact on mobility and air quality are long-range, not likely to be felt until after 2010.
Examples of successful implementation of land use policies are numerous'. Along with results of the ARB
study showing a potential reduction of up to 11 percent of regional vehicle trips, they all point to the
beneficial long-term effects of coordinated land use and transportation policies. The primary gains of
_ 27Calthorpe Associates,'Transit Oriented Development Design Guidelines',1992f or the City of San Diego. Holtzclew/NRDC,
"Explaining Urban Density and Transit Impacts on Auto Use", 1990. Local Government Commission,"Land Use Strategies for
Liveable Places', 1992. Transit[Residential Access Center, 'Incentives for Trip Reduction Through Location of Housing Near
Rail Transit Stations', 1991. Air Resources Board, "CCAA Guidance for the Development of Indirect Source Control Programs',
1990.
SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-27
i
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Chapter Three • Growth Management
reducing single-occupant vehicle trips, and resulting air polluting emissions, are augmented�y the secondary
advantages of planning more livable communities and reducing the cost of congestion. Reduced stress,
increased worker productivity and enhanced quality of life are added benefits.
As noted earlier, the different parts of the region are moving toward better job/housing balance. This
tendency is likely to persist for an extended period of time. The positive impacts of this trend, together with
local policy interventions to foster land uses supportive of mobility and air quality goals, will be essential for
the maintenance and consolidation of mobility and air quality achievements. Progress in advanced
technologies and localized land-use actions are primary maintenance strategies of air quality long-term
programs.
b. Renewal/Replacement
Certainly a priority concern, given the rates of change anticipated, should be to guide investment into areas
which are deteriorating. The key will be to bring about on-going renewal, arrest and reverse decline, and at
the same time avoid levels of change that threaten established communities or overload viable infrastructure.
One should not assume that such programs will always entail major densification. Renewal nay include
changed re-use of existing structures.
Renewal plans will need to encourage job-housing balance, at least at the subregional scale or at medium size
city or "cluster of cities" scale. In addition to job-housing balance, it will be desirable to continue to
encourage mixed use centers with moderate densities (see Chapter 4 of the Growth Management Element) to
reduce congestion and pollution.
Issues of community cohesion and "ownership" or "control" will be a critical part of renewal. An important
issue in renewal is maintenance, or even restoration, of special ecosystems. Additional issues concern the
importance of maintaining links to a community's history, achieving levels of urban design and public art
which can enrich the quality of urban life, moving towards a sustainable and healthful built environment,
minimizing waste and toxic materials, and conserving resources.
c. Further Urbanization
There will be an ongoing need for further urbanization of presently non-urban land, unless the policy were to
force all growth out of the region's current boundaries, which would be unconstitutional and probably
impossible.
Most of the prescriptions for renewal/replacement apply for further urbanization as well: achieving job-
housing balance and broader scale income integration; encouraging sustainability, good urban design, and
centering. For development in new areas there may be no existing community to involve as in renewal
development. Rather there will need to be a phasing in of such involvement as an area progressively
develops. Linkages to adjoining regions in Mexico, Arizona, and Central and Northern California are likely
to also become increasingly important. Long range cost and responsibility for infrastructure should be part of
the analysis.
The above constitute some of the priority growth management concerns derived from looking beyond 2010.
There are undoubtedly others. What is most important is to recognize that changes ahead will probably be at
least as dramatic as those behind us and time will not stop at the planning horizon!
Page 3-28 • December 1993 .SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan
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