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Home My WebLink About55- Public Comments Annex A Simulated RDD attack at Langley AFB, VA Notional RDD Scenario The date is I March 1999. A terrorist group is planning to use an RDD attack against Langley AFB, VA. The terrorists have stolen a spent fuel rod from nearby North Ahna nuclear power plant. They gain access to the base using a stolen identification card, and are driving a rental truck full of two tons of fertilizer and diesel fuel, and have packed the spent fuel rod in the middle of the explosive mixture. They park in the wing headquarters parking lot, exit the base using a previously placed getaway vehicle, and set the bomb to explode at high noon. Hazard Prediction Assessment Code (HPAC) Simulation Software Overview HPAC is a forward deployable, counter-proliferation/counter-force capability available for government, government-related or academic use. This software tool assists warfighters in weaponeering targets containing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and in emergency response to hazardous agent releases. Its fast-running, physics-based algorithms enable users to model and predict hazard areas and human collateral effects in minutes. HPAC provides the capability to accurately predict the effects of hazardous material releases into the atmosphere and its impact on civilian and military populations. The software uses integrated source terms,high- p 46 SS -/9-06 resolution weather forecasts and particulate transport to model hazard areas produced by battlefield or terrorist weapons of mass destruction (WMD) use, conventional counterforce attacks against WMD facilities, or military and industrial accidents. One of HPAC's strengths is fast access to real-time weather data via Meteorological Data Servers (MDS). HPAC also has embedded climatology or historical weather for use when real weather is not available. HPAC models all nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) collateral effects of concern to military operations. These may derive from the use of NBC weapons or from conventional weapon strikes against production and storage facilities for such weapons. Similar effects may result from military or industrial accidents. HPAC provides source information on potential radioactive releases from nuclear weapons or reactor accidents and has the capability to generate source terms for nuclear, chemical and biological weapon strikes or accidental releases. HPAC includes the SCIPUFF model for turbulent transport, a new and advanced technology that provides a highly efficient and accurate prediction for a wide range of hazard scenarios. HPAC can also help C_i answer the question -- "How good is the prediction?" -- providing probabilistic solutions to the atmospheric transport problem. HPAC or MEA builds source terms for hazardous incidents for input to the atmospheric transport model, SCIPUFF. The current code hosts operator- friendly "incident" setup capability for nuclear, biological, and chemical releases resulting from either weapon deployment or facility attack. Sample HPAC projects are provided which may be edited to suit a wide range of user requirements or incidents. Additional improvements in the software are planned, but user feedback will ensure that these improvements include a user's perspective,not just a scientist's. Assumptions and Data The following assumptions and data were used and/or entered as variables into the HPAC simulation software: • I spent fuel rod(mass= 10.72 kg) from the North Anna power plant(reactor power 2893 megawatts) 4000 pounds of High Explosives 47 • Altitude of incident: ground level • Location of incident Langley AFB, VA • Time of incident: March 1, 1999 at 12:00 noon (local time) • HPAC software utilized historical weather data for temperature and winds • The simulation was terminated after an estimated 12 hours after the scenario, due to the operator's opinion that further radiological dispersion was negligible.2 Simulation Outputs The following plots show potential radioactive material dispersion patterns and give an estimate of the total radiation dosage in rems that a person would receive if they remained on the surface with no protection for the entire time period given.3 An acute whole body dose of 450-500 rems would cause approximately 50%of people to die within 30 days.° 48 10.72 kg spent nuclear fuel at Langley AFB Historical Weather Total effective eq. at 02-Mar-99 17:00Z (24.0 hrs) 20.0 14.0 rem 8.0 600.0 Y 450.0 } 2.0 150.0 50.0 -4.0 5.00 0.500 -10.0 -10.0 -4.0 2.0 8.0 14.0 20.0 X(km) 5km Figure 1 RDD Local Effects 49 10.72 kg spent nuclear fuel at Langley AFB Historical Weather Total effective eq. at 02-Mar-99 17:OOZ (24.0 hrs) 632.4 ClerElan r ,„145`�. e� III tlsbur9n 379.5 Pnilatleipnie w y. ` assington Dc, - rem 126.5 .p ''' 0000 E ; 4 450.0 > 7; -126.5 rte' 150.0 y 50.0 -379.5 500 $ 0.500 -632.4 -635.1 -381.1 -127.0 127.0 381.1 635.1 X(km) 200km Figure 2 RDD Regional Effects Notes Amico, Ross, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, personal correspondence, 11 March 1999 2 /bid. /bid Turner, James "Atoms, Radiation, and Radiation Protection," Pergamon Press, 1986,p. 229 50 Glossary AFRAT Air Force Radiation Assessment Team AMS Aerial Measuring System ARAC Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability ARG Accident Response Group CALIOPE Chemical Analysis by Laser interrogation of Proliferation Effluents CBIRF Chemical and Biological Incident Response Force DoD Department of Defense DoE Department of Energy EOD Explosive Ordinance Disposal FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FRMAC Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center FSU Former Soviet Union HPAC Hazard Prediction Assessment Code HEU Highly Enriched Uranium IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IND Improvised nuclear device NBC Nuclear(Radiological),Biological or Chemical NEST Nuclear Emergency Search Team PDD Presidential Decision Directive PSYOPS Psychological Operations Pu Plutonium RAP Radiological Assistance Program RADCON Radiation control RDD Radiological dispersion device RDW Radiological dispersion weapon REACITS Radiation Emergency Assistance Center/Training Site START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty TNT Trinitrotoluene U Uranium USAF United States Air Force WATS Wide-Area Tracking System WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction Consequence Management: Measures to protect public health and safety, restore essential government services, and provide� relief to��vrd 9n rnGklJUi�n G° 51