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Home My WebLink About45-Public Comments Entered into Record atn----~7~-f~-ncc~ CnllncillCmyDevCms Mtg: I, / 4 hV_-h ~L re ilu,.;"da Item 'is , --...--- Annex A ~ ~~ City Clerk/COC Secy City of San Bernardino Simulated RDD attack at Langley AFB, VA Notional RDD Scenario The date is 1 March 1999. A terrorist group is planning to use an RDD attack against Langley AFB, V A. The terrorists have stolen a spent fuel rod from nearby North Anna nuclear power plant. They gain access to the base using a stolen identification card, and are driving a rental tmck full oftwo tons of fertilizer and diesel fuel, and have packed the spent fuel rod in the middle of the explosive mixture. They park in the wing headquarters parking lot, exit the base using a previously placed getaway vehicle, and set the bomb to explode at high noon. Hazard Prediction Assessment Code (HPAC) Simulation Software Overview HP AC is a forward deployable, counter-proliferationlcounter-force capability available for government, government-related or academic use. This software tool assists warfighters in weaponeering targets containing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and in emergency response to hazardous agent releases. Its fast-mnning, physics-based algorithms enable users to model and predict hazard areas and human collateral effects in minutes. HP AC provides the capability to accurately predict the effects of hazardous material releases into the atmosphere and its impact on civilian and military populations. The software uses integrated source terms, high- 46 " resolution weather forecasts and particulate transport to model hazard areas produced by battlefield or terrorist weapons of mass destmction (WMD) use, conventional counterforce attacks against WMD facilities, or military and industrial accidents. One of HP AC's strengths is fast access to real-time weather data via Meteorological Data Servers (MDS). HPAC also has embedded climatology or historical weather for use when real weather is not available. HP AC models all nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) collateral effects of concern to military operations. These may derive from the use of NBC weapons or from conventional weapon strikes against production and storage facilities for such weapons. Similar effects may result from military or industrial accidents. HP AC provides source information on potential radioactive releases from nuclear weapons or reactor accidents and has the capability to generate source terms for nuclear, chemical and biological weapon strikes or accidental releases. HP AC includes the SClPUFF model for turbulent transport, a new and advanced technology that provides a highly efficient and accurate prediction for a wide range of hazard scenarios. HP AC can also help answer the question -- "How good is the prediction?" -- providing probabilistic solutions to the atmospheric transport problem. HP AC or MEA builds source tenns for hazardous incidents for input to the atmospheric transport model, SCIPUFF. The current code hosts operator- friendly "incident" setup capability for nuclear, biological, and chemical releases resulting from either weapon deployment or facility attack. Sample HPAC projects are provided which may be edited to suit a wide range of user requirements or incidents. Additional improvements in the software are planned, but user feedback will ensure that these improvements include a user's perspective, not just a scientist's.! Assumptions and Data The following assumptions and data were used and/or entered as variables into the HPAC simulation software: . 1 spent fuel rod (mass = 10.72 kg) from the North Anna power plant (reactor power = 2893 megawatts) . 4000 pounds of High Explosives 47 , . Altitude of incident: ground level . Location of incident Langley AFB, V A . Time of incident: March 1, 1999 at 12:00 noon (local time) . HP AC software utilized historical weather data for temperature and winds . The simulation was terminated after an estimated 12 hours after the scenario, due to the operator's opinion that further radiological dispersion was negligible? Simulation Outputs The following plots show potential radioactive material dispersion patterns and give an estimate of the total radiation dosage in rems that a person would receive if they remained on the surface with no protection for the entire time period given.3 An acute whole body dose of 450-500 rems would cause approximately 50% of people to die within 30 days.4 48 10.72 kg spent nuclear fuel at Langley AFB Historical Weather Total effective eq. at 02-Mar-99 17:00Z (24.0 hrs) W~ I 14.0 8.0 E ~ >- -10.0 -10.0 -4.0 2.0 8.0 X (km) 14.0 5km Figure 1 RDD Local Effects 49 rem 20.0 600.0 450.0 150.0 50.0 5.00 0.500 10.72 kg spent nuclear fuel at Langley AFB Historical Weather Total effective eq. at 02-Mar-99 17:00Z (24.0 hrs) 632.4 E .>:: ~ rem 600.0 450.0 150.0 ,. a 50.0 x ~ 5.00 . 0 i 0.500 , " ~ 0 0 0 3 635.1 >- -379.5. -632.4 -635.1 -381.1 -127.0 127.0 X (km) 381.1 200km Figure 2 RDD Regional Effects Notes I Amico, Ross, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, personal correspondence, 11 March 1999 2 Ibid. 3 Ibid. 4 Turner, James "Atoms, Radiation, and Radiation Protection," Pergamon Press, 1986,p.229 50 " AFRAT AMS ARAC ARG CALIOPE CBIRF DoD DoE EOD FBI FEMA FRMAC FSU HPAC HEU IAEA IND NBC NEST PDD PSYOPS Pu RAP RADCON RDD RDW REACITS START TNT U USAF WATS WMD Consequence Glossary Air Force Radiation Assessment Team Aerial Measuring System Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability Accident Response Group Chemical Analysis by Laser Interrogation of Proliferation Effluents Chemical and Biological Incident Response Force Department of Defense Department of Energy Explosive Ordinance Disposal Federal Bureau of Investigation Federal Emergency Management Agency Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center Fonner Soviet Union Hazard Prediction Assessment Code Highly Enriched Uranium Intemational Atomic Energy Agency Improvised nuclear device Nuclear (Radiological), Biological or Chemical Nuclear Emergency Search Team Presidential Decision Directive Psychological Operations Plutonium Radiological Assistance Program Radiation control Radiological dispersion device Radiological dispersion weapon Radiation Emergency Assistance Center/Training Site Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Trinitrotoluene Uranium United States Air Force Wide-Area Tracking System Weapons of Mass Destruction Management: Measures to protect public health and safety, restore essential government services, and provide relief to ~)~<<-~ ~~--a.-~~. 51 .. NIRS RADIATION ALERT and UPDATE (1/2004) Nuclear Power and Weapons Waste to go to Regular Landfills and other Non-Regulated Management Environmental Protection Agency joins Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Departments of Energy and Transportation in Deregulating Radioactive Waste Comments due to EPA by March 17,2004 Email to: a-and-r-Docket@epa.gov The US Environmental Protection Agency is planning to make a new rule that would allow nuclear waste to go to places that are not licensed for radioactive materials. The goal appears to be to redefine radioactive materials, no matter what their source (nuclear power, nuclear weapons, naturally occurring or other), based on EP A-calculated and projected risks. The new category of nuclear materials (once called BRC or Below Regulatory Concern) would supposedly not need radioactive regulatory controls. EP A does not consider all the potential health effects of radiation and hazardous materials in estimating the risks. They have never demonstrated the accuracy of their predic1ions. 1) First, EPA would allow mixed radioactive and hazardous wastes to go to facilities permitted for hazardous waste only (RCRA C hazardous waste dumps and processors). 2) Second, radioactive waste (not mixed with hazardous) could be permitted to go to places that do not have radioactive licenses or regulations, such as regular garbage dumps or incinerators or hazardous sites. EP A justifies this by claiming they will provide an acceptable level of protection from radiation risk. It seems obvious this would be a problem for communities around the waste sites, many of which already leak. 3) Third, EPA suggests that a non-regulatory approach to management of radioactive waste is an option and requests creative ideas for partnering with waste generators or other schemes to relieve the regulatory burden. Nothing would prevent radioac1ive materials from going to recycling facilities and being mixed with the normal recycling streams which are made into everyday household items like toys, cookware, personal use items, cars, furniture and civil engineering projects like roads and buildings. 4) This dangerous proposal dovetails neatly into the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's rulemaking to deregulate and release radioactive material from control, ironically called "Control of Solids." The NRC is considering several options for nuclear waste deregulation including continuing the current case-by-case release procedures, starting new release procedures that are based on projected risks, sending the waste to sites that are not licensed for nuclear materials. NRC is claiming they could approve "restricted" release of nuclear waste meaning certain conditions would apply but that NRC would not enforce them--someone else, as yet un-named would. The upshot is that NRC and EP A are joining forces to allow nuclear power and weapons waste which is now generally required to be regulated and controlled, to be released to waste sites never designed to take radioactive materials and either deliberately or unintentionally to the marketplace where it will come into routine daily contact with us, our children and environment. .. 5) To make matters even worse, the US NRC and US Department of Transportation are on the verge of finalizing new transport regulations (TSR-l) that would exempt various levels of hundreds of radionuclides from regulatory control in transit. This will make it easier for NRC and EP A to deregulate nuclear wastes since they will no longer require regulation, labeling or control as radioactive material during transportation. (This is especially distressing in light of increased security concems about transportation of nuclear materials that could be used for dirty bombs. More unregulated nuclear materials will be on the roads, rails, barges and aircraft.) 6) Finally, the Department of Energy is in the process of a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement on releasing radioactive materials from its sites. In 2000, DOE halted the commercial recycling of potentially radioactive metals from certain contaminated area on its sites, but could resume it. DOE continues to allow radioactively contaminated metals out for unregulated disposal and to allow other radioactively contaminated materials out for recycling or unregulated.disposal--soils, concrete, asphalt, plastic, wood, equipment, buildings, sites and more. EPADs Nov. 18,2003 notice would help legalize DOEDs release of nuclear weapons wastes from regulatory control. ACTIONS: 1) Send a letter to the new EP A Administrator Mike Leavitt telling him what you think of the EP A's proposed action, encouraging him withdraw it. Administrator Mike Leavitt, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1101A, Ariel Rios Building, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. Washington, DC 20460 leavitt.michael@epa.gov 2) Comment to EP A and get organizations and landfill boards to do so at a-and-r-Docket@epa.12ov The proposal is on the EPA website (www.epagov/radiation) and will be Dosted with comments on NIRS website (www.nirs.org) soon. 3) Tell EPA we need a 6 month extension to run their ideas by our communities that will be impacted. 4) Let your elected officials know how you feel about these dangers by sending them a copy of your letter to Secretary Leavitt, comments to EPA, NRC, DOT and/or DOE and telling them about your opposition to the federal rules that would deregulate and exempt nuclear materials from regulation. For more information contact: Diane D'Arrigo, Nuclear Information and Resource Service (NIRS), 1424 16th Street NW Suite 404, Washington, DC 20036, dianed@nirs.org, 202 328-0002 ext 16 See NIRS website under Campaigns at www.nirs.org for more info and actions. This is the NlRS E-Mail Alert list. You are on this list because you signed up on our website, at a NIRS lable at a concert, on a petition, or directly to NlRS. Your name and address are never sold, rented, or traded with anyone for any reason. For address changes or to unsubscribe, just send an e-mail to nirsnet@nirs.org. If you have friends or colleagues who would like to be on this list, have them send a note to nirsnel@nirs.org