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Home My WebLink About36-Development Services ~ , OC"~ ," 'f r, J iy~i i . ii I ~ L CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO - REQUEST FOR COUNCIL ACTION From: Michael Hays, Director Subject: Workshop with Economics Research Associates - Citywide Economic Feasibility Study Dept: Development Services Date: June 27, 2000 MCC Date: July 10,2000 Synopsis of Previous Council Action: 06/19/00 The Mayor and Common Council approved an Agreement for Services with Economics Research Associates to prepare an Economic Feasibility Study. Recommended Motion: That a joint luncheon workshop with the Mayor and Common Council!Planning Commission be set for Monday, August 7, 2000 at 12:00 p.m. in the EDA boardroom to meet with Economics Research Associates. ~~::!P Contact person: Valerie CRoss Phone: 384 5057 Supporting data attached: Staff Report Ward: Citywide FUNDING REQUIREMENTS: Amount: N/A Source: (Acct. No.) (Acct. Description) Finance: Council Notes: Agenda Item No :tl 6> c;, crJS/[jO t _" ~ 4 CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO - REQUEST FOR COUNCIL ACTION STAFF REPORT SUBJECT: Joint Mayor and Common CounciVPlanning Commission Workshop with Economics Research Associates - August 7, 2000 Mayor and Common Council Meeting of July 10, 2000 BACKGROUND At the June 19,2000 meeting, the Mayor and Common Council approved the Agreement for Services with Economics Research Associates (ERA) to prepare an economic feasibility study to identify regional development trends and analyze existing development vs. the land use mix in the City's General Plan and the goals in the BIG Plan. The purpose is to determine whether the Land Use Element provides adequate opportunities to meet future demand. The Mayor and Common Council requested a workshop with ERA in order to provide comments for consideration during preparation ofthe study. Staff recommends that the Planning Commission be invited to attend the workshop. RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends that the Mayor and Common Council set Monday, August 7, 2000 at 12:00 p.m. in the EDA boardroom for a joint luncheon workshop with the Planning Commission. CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO JOINT MAYOR AND COMMON COUNCIL/PLANNING COMMISSION WORKSHOP September 5, 2000 AGENDA Economics Research Associates - David Wilcox and David Bergman General Plan Economic Feasibility Study 1. Introductions 2. Presentation 3. Questions and Answers -tt3h 9-~-oo Economics Research Associates BACKGROUND INFORMATION FOR THE STUDY SESSION WITH THE MAYOR AND COMMON COUNCIL AND THE PLANNING COMMISSION TO GUIDE THE PREPARATION OF AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FOR AN UPDATE OF THE LAND USE ELEMENT OF THE GENERAL PLAN Presented to the CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO Presented by ECONOMICS RESEARCH ASOCIATES September 5, 2000 ERA Project No. 13718 -=#30 9- 5;-00 10990 Wilshire Boulevard Suite 1500 Los Angeles, CA 90024 310.477.9585 FAX 310478.1950 www.econres.com ERA Is affiliated with Drivers Jon,u Los Angeles San Francisco San Diego Chicago Washington DC London CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO LAND USE OBSERVATIONS Existing Topographies . Significant City areas traversed by Lytle Creek and the Santa Ana River . Major corridors of property holdings by the railroads . The City is large-more than 55 square miles in area . Because of the mountain passes, San Bernardino is a transcontinental hub Jurisdictional . Checkerboard pattern of City and County jurisdictional areas on the north . Major concentration of County, State, Federal governmental functions in and near downtown . Surrounded by five cities which have grown by 37,400 residents during 1990- 2000, while San Bernardino has grown by 16,400 during the same period . San Bernardino added 5,600 housing units during the 1990s, while the five surrounding cities added 9,300 units Economic Development 24% of the City's area now within existing redevelopment project areas . Another 15%I of the City lies in roads, railroads, storm channels, and other rights-of-way . Larger activity locations include the hospitals, the CSU-SB campus (23,400 students and 1,200 faculty), and the community college campus (10,200 students and 400 faculty)---all heavily influenced by governmental spending/investment policies . San Bernardino has steadily represented about 11 % of total County population . Defense conversion remains a continuing challenge . The City has 10 redevelopment areas comprising 8,197 aces (12.8 square miles). The IVDA project area includes 14,300 acres (22.3 square miles). . Changes Underway . A City of corridors challenged by regional retail dilution . Transfer of economic activity to "office-at-home" . The "new economy" requires talent, training, venture capital, superior communications utilities, and available adjacent customers CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO. CONTEMPORARY ESTIMATES OF ESTABLISHMENTS, EMPWYEES AND ACTIVITY VALVES By SIC Code Groupings (Major Employee Groups Are Shown as Indents) Activity Values Establishments Employees ($ millions) Agriculture, Forestry 70 481 $ 26 Mining/Oil & Gas 2 6 1 Construction/Contractors 319 2,542 $ 417 Special Trade Contractors 207 1,633 $ 224 Heavy Construction Contractors 23 504 64 Manufacturing 196 3,982 $ 261 Printing & Publishing 62 1,536 $ 82 Transportation, Communications & Public Utilities 140 2,592 $ 198 Local Passenger Transportation 16 1,209 63 Trucking & Warehousing 49 503 54 Wholesale Trade 291 3,274 $ 557 Durable Goods 233 2,447 $ 433 Nondurable Goods 58 827 124 Retail 1,508 17,130 $2,132 Eating & Drinking 341 4,913 $ 228 Miscellaneous Retail 370 2,713 233 Auto Dealers & Service Stations 195 2,275 691 General Merchandise 34 2,195 238 Food Stores 195 2,154 328 Home Furnishings 189 1,331 230 Building Materials/Garden 61 990 139 Apparel & Accessory 123 559 45 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate (FIRE) 527 5,107 $1,038 Real Estate 280 2,251 $ 342 Nondepository Credit 56 824 254 Insurance Agents 91 806 191 Banks 60 705 177 Services 2,454 31,450 $3,098 Health Services 467 9,771 $1,122 Educational Services 137 8,498 790 Social Services 169 2,924 217 Business Services 266 2,084 259 Auto Repair, Services & Parking 275 1,615 99 Membership Organizations 254 1,355 91 Engineering & Management Services 166 1,272 149 Legal Services 187 1,112 198 Personal Services 303 1,063 46 Amusement & Recreation Services 67 739 63 Hotels & Other Lodging 50 602 23 CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO. CONTEMPORARY ESTIMATES OF ESTABLISHMENTS, EMPLOYEES AND ACTIVITY VALVES (Continued) ;\ctivity Values Establishments Employees ($ millions) Public Administration Nonclassifiable Establishments Total 224 5 5,736 7,510 29 74,103 o o $7,728 "Data has been compiled from estimated distributions in 35 census tracts in the City. Notes: Employee groups of greater than 500 are shown in the indents. Not all employment has been counted; not counted are individuals, sole proprietors, offices-at-home, etc. Sources: Claritas and Economics Research Associates. hltp:/twww.calmis.ca.gov !file/lfmonth/san~rsub.l . STATE OF CALIFORNIA EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT LABOR MARKET INFORMATION OIVISION 916-262-2162 May 10, 2000 LABOR FORCE DATA FOR SUB-COUNTY AREAS (Data Not Seasonally Adjusted) 1999 BENCHMARK *Monthly sub-county data are derived by multiplying current estimates of county-wide employment and unemployment by the respective employment and unemployment shares (percentages) in each sub-county area at the time of the 1990 Census. Sub-county labor force is then obtained by summing employment and unemployment, and the result is divided into unemployment to calculate the unemployment rate, Based on Each Area's 1990 Census Share of County Employment and unemployment* .. This method assumes that the rates of change in employment and unemployment, since 1990, are exactly the same in each sub-county area as at the county level (i.e., that the shares are still accurate). If this assumption is not true for a specific sub-county area, then the estimates for that area may not be representative of the current economic conditions. Since this assumption is untested, caution should be employed when using these data. All unemployment rates shown are calculated on unrounded data. These data are not seasonally adjusted. CCO stands for Census County Division. CDP stands for Census Designated Place. County Data are for April (Preliminary) 2000 ~ _~1 ~/1~""1'VV\".." 'n CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO COMPARED TO SURROUNDING CmES Populotion and Housing Census DoF Census DoF DoF 1990 1995 1998 1999 2000 Change Population San Bernardino 170,036 185,942 186,402 184,986 186,400 + 16,364 .(+ 9.6%) Colton 40,213 45,479 44,675 46,634 47,350 + 7,137 (+17.7%) Lorna Unda 18,470 21,604 22,406 21,546 22,300 + 3,830 (+20.7%) Redlands 62,667 67,284 67,309 66,866 67,800 + 5,133 (+ 8.2%) Highland 34,439 40.709 42,032 42,832 44,450 + 10,011 (+ 2.9%) Rialto 72,395 81,584 83,933 82,593 83,700 + 11 ,305 (+15.6%) San Bernardino County 1,418,380 1,618,158 1,635,234 1,654.007 1,689,300 +270,920 (+19.1%) Housing San Bernardino 58,804 64,400 64,376 + 5,572 (+ 9.5%) Colton 14,767 15,831 15,911 + 1,144 (+ 7.7%) Lorna Unda 6,524 8,002 8,208 + 1,684 (+25.8%) Redlands 23,189 24,630 24,727 + 1,538 (+ 6.6%) Highland 12,562 14.632 15,043 + 2,481 (+19.8%) Rialto 23,836 26,249 26,327 + 2,491 (+10.5%) San Bemardino County 542,332 604,060 610,317 + 67,985 (+12.5%) Sources: 1990 Census, 1998 Census estimates, various California Department of Finance official estimates, and Economics Research Associates. o ~ ..... - i u.l V:l Eo< V:l ~ o~ Zo ~~ =:;e <z ~< ~~ =< ze <~ V:lo ~V:l Oz ~~ uiil :; ~ o u "" c Q 8 N " ~ 00 "" c Q QC c:PI c:PI .... 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J .5f'!.Qo-""'~~~~c;. .~::i ! :.0...., I;:: 8~;:;~J::sil~~- f...~-~-~~'-- !~ . ~-___N_ .~ _=-f;=:N:!:_~~~ 1 - - !; ..............,................ .,......................,...... s i ! :s .. t 'i ~ J ~ nn I~~~ - ~ . gll- } 'l! ~ J A <~'" I ,:j: .;; E'!~i ! .. ~ .l! i ,riP < II il.IIP < il """ t: . '1 .!!i J . ~._...! .....1 ~'g . i-!t,!~~~! j h~r~~..jl I ! ; ; t I I ;;;::E t:i -.:: E .!!.!! .!!"j .~ G!.!!S'-P 2; 1-';9. ~~:i~i&I5J~ :l i . '" II i!'!';;I;"':l! 8" r~ j J ~ ]" E .. ~ 't j J ~ 'l; IJ q,q ~PJ J Ii M M ;; M ;; ~~~~~"'~'o ~~ ~li.~=&i~ 0 ~.. SALES TAX PERMITS TRENDS IN THE CITY OF SAN FERNARDINO First Quarter 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Clulnge Apparel 147 135 139 135 144 - 3 General Merchandise 79 76 74 67 69 - 10 Food Stores 158 159 182 138 155 - 3 Eating and Drinking 426 415 399 392 397 - 29 Home 131 125 132 131 141 + 10 Furnishings! Appliances Building Materials 55 46 45 46 49 - 6 Auto Dealers and 169 182 190 181 196 + 27 Supplies Service Stations 64 60 60 65 63 - 1 Other Retail Stores 660 669 670 684 793 + 133(?) Retail Store Total 1,889 1,867 1,861 1,859 2,007 +118 All Other Outlet 3,082 3,018 2,841 2,556 2,446 -636 Totals All Outlets 4,971 4,885 4,702 4,415 4,453 -518 Source: California State Board of Equalization; Taxable Sales in California, and Economics Research Associates. Population Distribution (1999) San Bernardino \ .' , . .' . ' ..-.:... :" . .... I .. . . . . . .. .e,' .:-~ .. .-:.: ~". :.. . r ~. . ;~:..::: 'j' .::' . . . ~ . .~ " .. . . .. . '. .., .. . . . , . , . .~ . . . .. ". '. : . .' ~ . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. ... .. .. r e. ......... . .. ...... .. . .. . t... J- . .' .- , . ... ,. .. e. . . ,. --..:.. .,' ;:.. . .-. . I. ~ . ..: e. . . l . ~~"\l'- .. ~.....~ . .. ''''-/ .. "<: ',~ \ , .. . . '.~ " .' .re-; '7" ... {. .- . .r. e. ... . I . /"'-----" .. ,--..::.---"---..../ . ~ . .. .~... _\. I .',. .. . . . .. . ~ . '" . '. . .t , . -, . ./ .....~ . . " ." . . , .. ... ": .;:..... " .' " . . . .' '. ,-t.r:"--- :' fe"~ . '. . . " Ilr___-_ . .. . . . :- ,.( , . " " ~/ { , . 110 to.. , ,.......:...... ~.. .~. . ! 1 i Population (1999 Estimates) 1 Dot = 75 4 , o 4 Miles . . .. . .. Income Distribution (1999) San Bernardino ~ So....: E<:onomics Research Associates, ESRllnc, and CACllnc, -- ~~ ~? '-"r; ...., "-\... , </ I..../~ ~. t ,---So ) f ( ( ! Median Income (1999 Estimates) ~ < $25,000 525,000. $34,999 $35,000 . $49,999 > 550,000 o 4 Miles r " ,_.J Employment Distribution (1999) San Bernardino ~, o .- -. ~ ,p Jl-n . o 000 . 0 o .~-o'le Q o Employees Pcr Business Establishment 0-19 20-49 50-249 o o o ....~ o o o 250+ ~ uQ._~ 9> '" .. fJ 01 .. - ---0- . .v o.i a -- i9 o Q .0 o , .c Miles So....: E<onomics Research Asso<:w.s, ESRlmc, on<! CAClmc, ~ Selected Retail Stores San Bernardino h. .' - ~. .:c-- __.-_/ ._.~,... - . -- - ._, , - ;-::~ c'_ --_- - .-.,SO ~ o -.------I!!I o ----::-R- ;~~_:>:~ f:. o DO €I Special Re1Bi1 C8legories . Drinking Places DEaling Places /::, GrnceIy Stores . Liquor Stores . Variety Stores /::, Wmns Aocy Spcty SI /::, WOOlens Clothng Strs 0-- . , .c Miles Source: Economics Research Associates, ESRlInc, and CAClloc, --_._--~- - " I;; . . '. SCOPE OF SERVICES Understanding of the Asslgllment The General Plan process is iterative. Economic analysis' informs the General Plan development program and other elements, identifies public policy trade-offs, tests alternatives, and helps formulate implementation policies. The General Plan is a policy document for the comprehensive and orderly development of the City, with which zoning must be consistent. This assignment must articulate an economic vision for the City, build a comprehensive, coordinated, and orderly strategy towards achieving this vision, test the land use plan's impact on the City's fiscal health, and formulate General Plan policies for supporting the strategy. Having worked on numerous assignments for and with the City of San Bernardino for more than 30 years, ERA is weH acquainted with the initiatives and results of economic development. Our firm has worked in most of the major corridors and districts and is familiar with the range of challenges the contemporary city must address, from ongoing reuse programming at former Norton Air Force Base to the fundamental revitalization of Mt. Vernon Avenue. Task 1: Bacqround Resc;arch and General Plan Review Task 1.1: City Tour - We will begin with a comprehensive lOur of the City, including a drive to major employment, commercial, and residential centers of the City and the surrounding region. We will meet with City staff 10 discuss economic issues, opportunities and constraints, work completed 10 date, and goals and objectives for the City and its communities. TlISk 1.2: Dolo Collection - At this time, we will coHect and review the foHowing information: · All prior studies related to economic development and fiscal analysis · Census and other very recent demographic data · Regional industry and employment data · The existing General Plan and land use maps · A list or report on planned major infrastructure improvements in the City and surrounlling reigon . , " .. . - . .--- ---~-------- -~:--~:;..:..-..-i=:'~'~ . ,.-.--.'-' ----- ---- · Any recent comparable land sales or development trend data that the City may have · A list of planned and proposed major private and public development projects in the market area (e.g., "Lakes and Streams") · A list of major industries and employers in the market area · A list of local contacts for data collection . The City budget, CIP, and any prior public facility financing plans Task 2: Analyisys of Supply, Demand, and f'..apture Potential Task 2,1: Trrule Area Identification - Based on our observation of regional development trends and competitive locations, the nature of land use concepts under consideration, . and a review of barriers and access, we will define the primary and secondary trade areas for market review. Different trade areas may be defmed for different land uses. Task 2.2: Market Demographk A1J4lysis - Demographic trends are key determinants for commercial and housing demand. We will prepare a demographic analysis of the city and its market region. Characteristics we will review include population, households, age distribution, income distribution, and educational attainment and the evolving futures of each of these indicators. Task 2.3: Selected Real EstDte C1uuacteristics - We will review basic real estate characteristics for industrial and commercial development in the city and surrounding region. This review will include the volume of development over time by major land use, and an inventory of major commercial and industrial developments. We will conduct the following research: 1. Characteristics of major industrial real estate trends 2. Characteristics of major commercial real estate trends 3. Characteristics of major tourism related development trends 4. Characteristics of any major planned or proposed projects in the City and its market areas . ERA will identify a 2020 horizon for any and all projections of future needs and demands for land use types. ..~,;;.....;....,-o.~'''~'''''----' - . . .. - . - -.-...- .--.---.----- ~... -".~.----- ...;,....,.....:...;;...'--~.~.~.*-.:....-:..._..- Task 3: PreliminaQ' Program Recomendations Task 3.1: Market Findings.. We will present market findings based on the above analysis. These findings will include estimates of the supportable market (now and in the future), the City's potential economic future under various competitive scenarios, the potential for specific market niches, the level of potential private interest, and potential risks. ERA will project the futures by 2020 in five-year increments. Task 3.2: Opportunities lor New Development and Redevelopment -- Based on the market and economic analysis, we will identify opportunities for new development concepts within the City's infill areas, undeveloped areas, and potential annexation areas. We will also identify opportunities for redevelopment and revitalization of existing areas, if appropriate. (ERA is already familiar with the major redevelopment efforts in the 10+ separate project areas.) Task 3.3: Proposed Economic Development Program.. Working with staff, we will recommend a preliminary economic development policy for the City. The policy will iden~ the following: · Overall vision · Specific economic development sub-concepts . Desired land use mix . Suggested economic development clusters and preliminary locational recommendations ERA will take care to build upon the recently adopted BIG Plan by formulating the desired land use allocations, development quality, and intended occupants. Task 4: .Tolnt Mayor and Connell Plannlna Commission WorbhQP ERA will present to the Mayor and Council and Planning Commission of the City of San Bemardin.o the results of the research program to date and preliminRry recommendations indicated by the research process in Tasks 1 through 4. This presentation will include PowerPoint slides, handout materials, and summaries of oncoming recommendations. Also, through this workshop I , 1 1- " process, ERA will make its professional staff available to this body of elected and appointed officials for an open conversation on a wide variety of economic development topics related to the overall improvement of the City of San Bernardino relative to its competition throughout Southern California. '. Ta~k S: Economic and Fi~C81 Impact Analy~l~ Because the economic element of the General Plan is not specifically tied to any land use allocations, it will be difficult to assign specific fiscal and economic impacts to any planned alternative generated through this process. However, it will be possible to illustrate in qualitative terms the potential for the performance characteristics of land use types and their effects through implementation of the Plan on issues such as: . Job creation · Retail sales · Populatio~ growth ERA will also provide the City of San Bernardino with some generic per square foot and per capita planning and performance parameters based on an examination of the existing General Fund budgets of the City of San Bemardino. Ta~k 6: Program Recommendatlon~ ERA will present a draft and a fina1 report that will include the economic and market research findings. We will detail the suggested land use chnge initiatives we believe the City can accomplish by joining market forces with deliberte economic development initiatives. The economic analysis will incorporate comments and suggestions from the working session with the Mayor, Council, and Planning Commission of the City of San Bernardino. #38453 ECONOMICS RESEARCH ASSOCIATES AND SAN BERNARDINO SELECTED ASSIGNMENTS . Downtown Redevelopment Program(s) Economic Analyses 1960s · Tri Cities Redevelopment project Fiscal and Economic Impacts 1980s . Uptown Redevelopment Project Fiscal and Economic Impacts 1980s · Mount Vernon Avenue Property Development Feasibility 1970s (for Operation Second Chance) . Economic Analysis of Proposed Components for the National Orange Show 1980s · Seccombe Lake State Urban Recreation Area Program Economics Viability 1970s . Norton Air Force Base Reuse Business Plan 1990s (with Lockheed Air Terminals for Inland Valley Development Authority) . San Bernardino Historic Railroad Depot Preliminary Market Assessment 1990s (for Milford Wayne Donaldson Architects, for the City)