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HomeMy WebLinkAbout26-Community Development a CI1CiOF SAN BI!RNARDI(:P - RI!QUFOT FOR COUNCIL ~ From: Kenneth J. Hendereon, Director Subject: SELECTION OF CONSULTANT TO UNDERTAKE HOUSING MARKET STUDY Oept: Community Development Oltl: February 24, 1987 Synopsis of Previous Council action: On November 7, 1986, the Ways and Means Committee directed Itaff to develop a "Request for Propoea1s" (UP) for, a Housing Market Study which would allow for effective development of the City's Comprehensive Housing Policy. On November 21, 1986, the Ways and Means Committee directed staff to solicit for eaid UP. On December 8, 1987, the Mayor and Common Council received and filed the Waye and Meane Committee minutes of November 24, 1986 Ind directed staff to issue housing market study RPP. Recommended motion: ADOPT RESOLUTIOIl. ~d~1 Slgnlturl Contact penon: SupportIng dl" IUlChed: Kenneth J. Henderson Phone: 5065 Staff Report Wlrd: 1-7 FUNDING REQUIREMENTS: ~unt: ~lO,OOO.OO Source: (ACCT. NO.) (ACCT. DESCRIPTION) 121-538-5-JlSO Flnlnce: I/r_ r C' /t --L . Council Notes: ,....,... AlI8ndl Item No. ~, CI'O' OF SAN BERNARDICP - REQUEf()T FOR COUNCIL AC'O)N STAFF REPORT on November 21, 19B6, the Ways and Means Committee requested staff to development a "Request for Proposals" (RFP) for a Housing Market Study. It was the intent of the Committee that the City hire a consultant to undertake a study that would provide information to form the necessary data base for development of the City of San Bernardino's comprehensive housing policy. On December B, 19B6, the Mayor and Common Council received and filed the Ways and Means Committee minutes and authorized staff to issue said RFP. Four (4) proposals were submitted in response to the Community Development Department's RFP for a Housing Market Study. The RFP is attached to the Contract as Exhibit "A". Proposals were submitted by the due date from the following firms: 1. Tom Dobson and Associates 2. Empire Economics 3. Insights 4. Jaykim Engineers, Inc. A rating form was developed to based on criteria specified in attached to the staff report. rating form for each proposal. rate and rank the RFP. The Each reviewer the proposals, rating form is filled out a Summarv of Ratinas The proposals received the following ratings from the reviewers: ProDosal/Rankina Totals Dobson & Associates Empire Economics Insights Jaykim Engineers, Inc. 146 178 169 64 Conclusions EmDire Economics received the highest total ranking and was judged to be the strongest proposal overall. This proposal received high scores for methodology and for relevant experience from all reviewers. Some minor modifications would strengthen the proposal further. Specificall~, Empire Economics should be asked to investigate the housing projects currently in the planning process for their assessment of current demand and supply. Addition of a builder survey and assessment of financing ability would also improve the study. 2/24/B7 75.0214 Q o o o Insiahts proposal was considered acceptable with considerable modifications. The proposal indicated that there was some confusion regarding the proposed assessment of absorption rates for previous subdivision development since no timeframe was specified. While Insights indicated previous experience in feasibility assessments of housing developments for private developers, the firm did not have significant experience in working directly with local governments. They also requested an expedited payment schedule. In spite of these weaknesses, the review panel felt that Insights did have the ability to perform the work specified in the RFP if the concerns indicated could be resolved. Dobson and Associates proposal was judged marginal. The proposal contained frequent repetition of the RFP language without specifying in sufficient detail how steps in the methodology would be undertaken. Key staff had backgrounds which stressed environmental planning rather than housing development. Jaykim Enaineers was judged unacceptable and unresponsive. The methodology proposed was in outline form and indicated the firm did not understand the requirements. The background of the company's representatives had primarily engineering credentials and limited experience in housing development and market assessment. Rec,ommendat ion staff recommends that the Mayor and Common Council adopt the attached resolution authorizing the Mayor to execute an agreement with Empire Economics to perform a housing market study, providing that minor clarification in the proposed methodology is included as indicated above (Empire has agreed to these stipulations). The fee paid to Empire Economics to perform t,he entire Housing Marketing Study is estimated to be $9,500 and it will not exceed $10,000. K~'~.~ Director of Community Development KJH/MLO/lab 0091 2/24/87 c' o 0 ( HOUSING MARKET STUDY PROPOSAL RATING PORM ~ Points Awarded 1. Consultant Methodoloav (30 possible points) A. Comprehensiveness of MethodologYI 8-10 . Pully comprehensive. Addresses both demand and supply characteristics for all nine (9) categories of housing. 4-7 . Mostly comprehensive, but some aspects missing. 2-3 . Marginal. 0-1 . Unacceptable. B. Use of Secondary Source Materiall 4-5 . GOod understanding of available secondary source material. Appropriate generation of primary source information. 2-3 . Moderate understanding of available secondary source material, with additional information generated from primary sources. 0-2 . Over-reliance on primary data generation. C. Methodology for Determining Availability of Private Sector Pinancingl 4-5 . Adequately addressed. 2-3 . Addressed but questions remain. 0-1 . Not addressed, or inadequately addressed. D. Methodology for Estimating Absorption Rates: 4-5 . Adequately addressed. 2-3 . Addressed, but questions remain. 0-1 . Not addressed, or inadequately addressed. \ 0' (- o o E. Based on Methodology, Likelihood that Contractor will be able to Recommend Appropriate Housing Development Strategies for the Citya 4-5 · Very likely. 2-3 · Somewhat likely. 0-1 . Unlikely. 2. Timina Considerations (5 possible points) 4-5 . Performance likely within three (3) month performance. 2-3 . Performance hopefull within three (3) month performance. 0-1 . Performance will probably exceed three (3) month timeframe. 3. Cost Considerations (10 possible points) 8-10 . Cost at or under $10,000 and payment arrangements acceptable. 6-7 . Cost at or under $10,000, but accelerated payments requested. 0-5 . Cost exceeds parameters, progress payments requested. 4. Past Exoerience/Relevant Qualifications (20 possible points) 15-20 . Significant relevant experience in undertaking similar studies for local jurisdictions and housing developers. 10-14 . Some relevant experience in conducting similar studies. 5-9 . Limited past experience in conducting studies of this nature. 0-4 . unacceptable past experience. o Points Awarded · o' o o 5. Overall ASBessmen~ of Pro9oBal and Potential Contractor (10 possible points) 8-10 . Superior proposal. Highly qualified contractor. 4-7 . Acceptable proposal. Qualified Contractor. 1-3 . Proposal acceptable, but contractor qualifications questionable, or qualifications acceptable, but proposal questionable. o . Unacceptable on all counts. TOTAL SCORE: (OUt of 75 possible points) JRT/lab 0076 o Points Awarded ------- o o o o 1 RESOLUTION NO. 2 RESOLUTION OF THE CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO AUTHORIZING AND IRECTING THE EXECUTION OF AN AGREEMENT WITH EMPIRE ECONOMICS FOR 3 HOUSING MARKET STUDt. BE IT RESOLVED BY THE MAYOR AND COMMON COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF BERNARDINO AS FOLLOWS: 4 5 SECTION 1. The Mayor of the City of San Bernardino is hereby 6 uthorized and directed to execute for and on behalf of said City 7 n Agreement with Empire Economics for a Housing Market Study, a 8 9 opy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit "1" and incorporated erein by ~eference as though fully set forth at length. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 I HEREBY CERTIFY that the foregoing resolution was duly adopted by the Mayor and Common Council of the City of San Bernardino at a meeting thereof, held on the , 19B7, by the following vote, to day of wit: Council Members AYES: NAYS: ABSENT: City Clerk The foregoing resolution is hereby approved this day , 19B7. of Mayor of the City of San Bernardino 26 Approved as to form: : ~!!~ o o o o 1 2 3 AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO AND EMPIRE ECONOMICS FOR A HOUSING MARKET STUDY THIS AGREEMENT, effective the day of 4 ' 1987, by and between the CITY OF SAN 5 BERNARDINO, a municipal body corporate, hereinafter referred to 6 as .City", and EMPIRE ECONOMICS, a sole proprietorship owned and 7 operated by Joseph Janczyk Evans, Ph.D., hereinafter referred to 8 as "Contractor., sets forth the agreement of the parties. 9 SECTION 1. Recitals. 10 A. The City is in the process of formulating a 11 comprehensive housing policy to guide the City in its efforts to 12 promote a full mix of housing options for its present and future 13 residents. City has circulated a "Request for Proposal" seeking 14 consulting services; all responses have been evaluated. City has 15 determined that Contractor should be selected to perform such 16 services. A copy of the Request for Proposal is appended as 17 Exhibit "A", and is incorporated herein by reference. 18 B. Contractor represents that it has the expertise required 19 to conduct such a comprehensive analysis of market conditions for 20 housing in general, in accordance with the Request for Proposal, 21 and is ready, willing and able to prepare such a comprehensive 22 analysis as desired or required by the Commission. A copy of 23 Contractor's proposal dated February 5, 1987, is appended hereto 24 as Exhibit "B", and is incorporated herein by reference. 25 SECTION 2. Imolementation. The parties therefore do agree 26 as follows: 27 A. Contractor shall forthwith commence the study required 28 for the preparation of the comprehensive analysis, and present t 1 LL th. . o o o o 1 City within three (3) months from the date of execution of this 2 agreement, a comprehensive analysis of the market conditions 3 required by the Request for Proposal, and recommendations in 4 writing for the policy to be'adopted by the City and Commission 5 as specified in the Request for Proposal. In addition, 6 Contractor agrees to meet with and provide advice to the Council 7 during a Council meeting to formulate the poI icy pursuant to the 8 recommendations of Contractor. 9 B. In addition to the items specified in the Request for 10 Proposal, Contractor agrees to investigate the housing projects 11 currently in the planning process and consider those developments 12 in the assessment of current demand and supply, Contractor shall 13 also include a builder survey within its overall study, and shall 14 consider and assess financing ability factors to make the study 15 more meaningful. 16 C. City agrees to pay, and Contractor agrees to accept as 17 full payment therefor, a sum not less than $9,500, nor more than 18 $10,000, based on the amount of time necessarily expended. 19 D. All services shall be provided in acco,rdance with the 20 proposal dated February 5, 19B7, appended hereto as Exhibit "B". 21 SECTION 3. Independent Contractor. At all times during the 22 term of this agreement, Contractor shall be an independent 23 contractor and shall not be considered an officer, agent, servant 24 or employee of the City. City shall have the right to control 25 Contractor only insofar as the results of Contractor's services 26 rendered pursuant to this agreement 1 however, City shall not have 27 the right to control the means by which Contractor accomplished 28 services rendered pursuant to this agreement. 2 Q o o o 1 SECTION 4. Non-Assianable. This contract is entered into 2 with Contractor due to Contractor's particular qualifications and 3 expertise, and Contractor may not assign, either voluntarily or 4 involuntarily, this agreement or any rights, benefits or 5 obligations hereunder, to any other party without first obtaining 6 the approval of the City in writing. 7 SECTION 5. Eaual Emolovment Oooortunitv. During the 8 performance of this agreement, the Contractor agrees as follows: 9 The Contractor will not discriminate against any employee or 10 applicant for employment because of racer color, religion, sex or 11 national origin. The Contractor will take affirmative action to 12 ensure that applicants are employedr and that employees are 13 treated during employment, without regard to their race, colorr 14 religion, sex or national origin. Such action shall include, but 15 not be limited to, the following: 'employment, upgrading, 16 demotionr transfer, recruitment, recruitment advertising, layoff 17 or termination, rates of payor other forms of compensation, and 18 selection for training, including apprenticeship- The Contractor 19 agrees to post in conspicuous places, available to employees and 20 applicants for employment, notices setting forth the provisions 21 of this non-discrimination clause. Contractor will, in all 22 solicitations or advertisements for employees placed by or on 23 behalf of Contractor, state that all qualified applicants will 24 receive consideration for employment without regard to race, 25 color religion, sex or national origin. 26 SECTION 8. Notices. Notices to the parties ,unless 27 otherwise requested in writing, shall be sent as follows: 28 Director of Community Development Empire Economics 3 Q o o o 1 city of San Bernardino 300 North 80R Street 2 San Bernardino, CA 9241B Suite 200 35505 Camino Capistrano Capistrano Bch, CA 92624 3 SECTION 9. ~. This agreement shall continue in effect 4 until terminated by either party. This agreement may be 5 terminated at any time by either party upon thirty (30) days 6 written notice to the other party. 7 SECTION 10. The Request for Proposal (Exhibit RAR) and the 8 Contractor's Proposal (Exhibit RBR), together with the additional 9 items specified in Section 4B, set forth the scope of work to be 10 provided hereunder. The provisions thereof are hereby 11 12 specifically incorporated into this agreement. IN WITNESS WHEREOFr the parties hereto have executed this 13 agreement as of the date first above written. 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO ATTEST: By Mayor City Clerk EMPIRE ECONOMICS Approved as to form: ~~~ By Joseph Janszyk Evans, Ph.D. 4 Q' o o o REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL for .HOUSING MARKET STUDY. A. PurDose The City of San Bernardino is seeking consulting services to undertake a study of the potential demand for certain types of housing within the City limits. The study should also include recommended strategies for promoting future development of certain types of housing. B. Backqround The City of San Bernardino is in the process of formulating a comprehensive housing policy to guide the City in its efforts to promote a full mix of housing options for its present and future residents. In contrast to other Southern California cities, particularly coastal cities, San Bernardino has a considerable supply of housing for low and moderate income families. A number of programs are currently in place to support a further increase in this type of housing, including infill and mortgage revenue bond programs to support new construction as well as rehabilitation programs to preserve the condition and affordability of the present housing stock. The City plans to continue to operate these programs and provide appropriate financial support. As a supplement to these programs and in order to ensure the full range of housing options, as described above, the City is interested in encouraging the development of housing affordable to those at higher income levels. A quantity of this type of housing presently exists in the City. However, without additional expansion to keep pace with the corresponding increase of low and moderate income housing, the City may lose the balance which, in the past, has provided for economic integration in San Bernardino. In order to guide the development of the comprehensive housing policy described above, the City needs to know the demand and supply characteristics for each of the housing market segments, as described further below. C. EXDectations of the Contract The consultant will estimate the demand and supply characteristics for various types of housing in San Bernardino. Market segments to be analyzed include, 1) custom single-family detached homes in the $200,000(+) range, 2) upscale subdivisions or .move-up. homes in the $125,000 to $200,000 range, 3) townhomes, or two story attached homes, in the $90,000 to $125,000 range, patio homes in the $65,000 to $85,000 range, townhomes in the $90,000 to $125,000 range, condominiums in the $65,000 to $90,000 range, apartments with rents in the $350.00 to $600.00 range, low and moderate income ownership housing in the $30,000 to $70,000 range, and low and moderate income rental housing in the $250.00 to $400.00 EXHIBIT "A" ~ o range. It is expected tSitthe study WiQ examine the supply and 0 absorption rates for existing and recently constructed homes in these categories in San Bernardino as well as in other comparable Inland Empire cities. It is further expected that, based on the study's findings, the consultant will recommend techniques and/or incentives that the City might use to attract and encourage developers interested in building upscale housing in San Bernardino, specifically for custom homes, move-up homes and townhomes. Accordingly, specific location, size, design and amenity characteristics required to make such housing attractive and marketable should be included as part of the consultant's recommendations. D. ProDosal Criteria Consultants responding to this "RPP" should provide evidence of their qualifications as evidenced by previous studies of a similar nature conducted for other cities or counties or for private developers. Names and phone numbers of references should be provided. Specific knowledge of the City of San Bernardino or the other cities and counties in the Inland Empire would be helpful but is not required. Consultants should explain in their proposals the methodology they would employ if selected to perform this study. Such methodology should specify what primary and/or secondary data sources the consultant intends to use, how the availability of private sector financing will be assessed, how absorption rates will be estimated, and any other key aspects of the methodology the consultant intends to employ. The City estimates that this study can be completed in three (3) months time following contract approval. Ten thousand dollars ($10,000) has been reserved for conducting this study. Payment will be made following completion of the study and submission of an acceptable final report. The consultant should state the estimated time and cost of conducting this study and explain any deviations from the City's estimates as stated above. E. Deadline for Submission To be considered, proposals must be complete, signed by a person with responsibility to commit the necessary resources to undertake the study if selected, and be received by the Community Development Department of the City of San Bernardino, City Ball Building, ,300 North "D" Street, San Bernardino, California, 92418, attention Maurice Oliva, no later than 4:30 p.m. on hid... ..bro." 13 19.12. , Any questions regarding this "RPP" should be directed to Mr. Oliva at 714/383-5065. Collect calls will not be accepted, and proposal costs will not be reimbursed. KJBI JRT/ lb file: rfphousmarketst ~ o' o o "w= '=' LS U \Y Ii ~! lffiJ FEB I 2 1987 .. EMPIRE ECONOMICS Economic-Real Estate Consultant. , Joseph Janczyk Evans, Ph.D. 35505 Camino Capistrano, Suite 200 Capistrano Beach, California 92624 26300 La Alameda, Suite 310 Mission viejo, California 92691 (714) 661-7012 February 5, 1987 Mr. Kenneth J. Henderson, Director community Development Department city of San Bernardino, city Hall 300 N. "0" Street, Fifth Floor San Bernardino, CA 92418 Re: Housing Market Study: Comprehensive Housing POlicy for San Bernardino city Dear Ken, Empire Economics is pleased to respond to your RFP for the- Housing Market Study for San Bernardino city. Accordingly, the purpose of this Proposal by Empire Economics is to provide you with a description of the consulting services that would be required to formulate a comprehensive Housing POlicy for San Bernardino city. Backaround Empire Economics has conducted various studies for San Bernardino city that could be utilized as a basis for formulating a Comprehensive Housing Policy for the city. Specifically, Empire Economics has recently conducted Market Demand Studies for the city's Single- and Multi- Family Bond Programs as well as a Housing Needs Study. According1y~ the information, and results of these studies, along with some supplemental studies for market segments not covered by these studies, would be utilized in formulating a Comprehensive Housing Policy for San Bernardino City. Pumase Empire Economics will conduct a study that will assist the Community Development Department with formulating a comprehensive housing policy to quide the city in its efforts to promote a full mix of housing options for its present and future residents. Empire Economics will address the full mix of housing options, including higher-priced housing as well. Descrintion gt Consultina Services Empire Economic. would formulate a Comprehensive Housing POlicy for San Bernardino City based upon a consideration of all of the relevant market demand and supply conditions and the resulting absorption rates for EXHIBIT "B" Q' o o o housing in each of the various seCJlllents of the market. specifically r the primary components of the study are as follows: Market Conditions Typical ---------------- Market SeCJlllents prices/Rents Demand Supply Programs ----------------- --------------- ------- ------- ---------------- CUstom Homes $200,000 $250,000 Moderate Minimal Move-Up Homes $125,000 $200,000 Moderate Minimal Detached Homes $80,000 $125,000 High High single-family Bonds Patio Homes $65,000 $85,000 High High single-family Bonds TOwnhomes $90,000 $125,000 Moderate Minimal Condominiums $65,000 $90,000 Moderate High Market Saturated Apartments $350 $600 strong Very High MUlti-family Bonds Low/Mod Income $30,000 $70,000 strong Moderate Rehab Program ownership Low/Mod Income $250 $400 strong Moderate Rehab Program Rentals Multi-Bond Program Please refer to Chart A for the methodology underlying the market study. As can be seen from the above matrix, San Bernardino City already has programs in place that encourage the development of housing in various market seCJlllentsr primarily through its single- and multi- family bond programs. Additionally, there are some other programs that provide households with funds that can be utilized for the rehabilitation and infill of housing units. However, there appears to be a need for further analysis of which addresses the demand in the market seCJlllents for higher-priced housing unit.s, both det.ached and attached. specificallYr much of t.he potential demand for this type of housing by households that. are employed in San Bernardino City goes to other cities/communit.ies. This may be at.tribut.ed t.o the reluct.ance that. various developers have in proceeding with such projects in San Bernardino City because they are uncertain about. the demand that their projects would realize. Consequent.ly, the purpose of this supplemental st.udy would be to establish the st.ren9th of the market. condit.ions for cust.om, move-up and luxury townhome projects. Additionally, the feat.ures and amenit.ies of such housing would also be considered. The actual development. of such a protect would benefit. the cit.y of San Bernardino, since it would "break t.he cen on such project.s, and thereby stimulate further project.s in the future. The market pot.ential of these products for San Bernardino cit.y would be estimated t.hrough a comprehensive analysis of all the economic-social fact.ors that influence their demand including the following: o' 0 0 0 * Identification of the upscale housing projects and custom homes in the East Valley since 1980. * Sales rates of these projects, both new and existing * Prices and product characteristics of the projects * Special features, such as view sites, securitYr etc. Thus, the study will identify the specific economic-design-social factors that have made upscale projects successful! Therefore, the Comprehensive Housing Policy study would consolidate all of the various studies which have recently been conducted along with the special supplemental study to arrive at policy recommendations for housing in each of the various market secpnents presented above. This would provide the city with specific objectives regarding its future policies with respect to the development of housing. ~ ~ Underlvina ~ Studv Empire Economics, due to its substantial experience in conducting studies in San Bernardino County and San Bernardino city has an extensive proprietary data base which it will utilize in conducting the Housing Needs for San Bernardino City. Additionally, Empire Economics will also use available published data including: Census, Department HOD, and SCAG, among others. policv Considerations The key results of the study will be the demand/supply balance of housing in each of the designated market segments along with the programs that are now or may be utilized to maintain an overall balance of housing in San Bernardino City. To facilitate your review of the study, and to assist in focusing on the policy implications, Empire Economics will provide you with a demand/supply graph as shown on the attached page; such a graph will be formulated for each market segment. Additionally, Empire Economics will also be available to present the results of the study to the city Council at a workshop, if so desired. ~ Reauirements ADQ Financial Considerations The time required to conduct the study is estimated to be some 4-6 weeks; this will include some time for interim meetings to receive feedback from the Council and Staff. The fee for the consulting services reflects the time required to consolidate the various Single- and Multi- Family Bond studies that have been conducted as well as the Housing Needs Study. Additionally, there will be a special study on the market segments which have not been analyzed thusfar, namely the custom, move-up and luxury townhome segments. Accordingly, the fee for the entire Comprehensive Housing Program Study is estimated to be $9,500 and it will not exceed $10,000. o' o o o I aa certainly looking forward to providing you with assistance in formulating a Comprehensive Housing Policy for San Bernardino City. Such a policy should prove to be beneficial for the city in setting its future housing goals. Ph.D. APPROVED: APPROVED: Kenneth J. Henderson Date COIDIunity Development Department City of San Bernardino anczyk Evans, Ph.D. Economics 2-_7cl? Date . . o o 0 NUMBER OF HOUISNG UNITS - ANNUALLY (Thousands) o I ,-.. ,-.. ,-.. p p p p p p p p p p p p p .... .... .... , , , ~ S ~ .... 8 .... ~ ~ t> ~ g ~ ~ :8 8 .... ~ .s 0 0 e- - 0 .... III \0 C ~ ." ." ~ 0 0 I 3: -0 )> ~ :::0 d (/) n 0 ~ ;u I .... X z Z \0 II ~ 1'1 0 II CLI 0 " iii )> C> ~ 0 0 -; (1) C L1 -. ~ ~ i:: c. ~ I (f) c 0 'U ~ fTI 'U '< .... III (/) \0 ~ e :::0 i:: fTI ~ 0 I 0 C (/) Z G") .... \0 m 1 o o 0 NUMBER OF HOUISNG UNITS - ANNUALLY (Thousands) o I " " " p p p p p p p p p p p p p ~ .... .... . , . 1; S ~ .... 8 .... ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 10 8 .... ~ S 0 0 0 ~ ...... e. .... I/) 10 C ~ "0 "0 '< () 0 I ~ "U )> ~ :;:0 6 (f) ~ :u 0 I .... X z I. 10 Oi 1'1 0 0 " IiJ )> is ~ () 0 -i ro C III ~. )> ~ ~ 0. ~ lJ) c CJ 'tJ ~ fTI 'tJ '< .... a (f) 10 ~ :;:0 ~ fTI ~ CJ I 0 C (f) Z (;) .... 10 m . o IlI'I'HODOLOGt ""AlT A UIDIRLtlllrTHI HARIIT/'IASIBIL~STUDt o .................................... tltRODUCTIOI ............................................. ... ... ... DISCftlPTlOI 0' THI CANDlDATI 'ROJICT ... ... . Location ... ... . D....lop..nt Status ... ... . r..tur.. , ,..nitl.. ... ... ... ... DILIIIATIOI 0' till HARlIT ARIAlI ... ... ... ................................................................................................... ..................... ECONOMIC lSSUMPTIOIS/P1R1METIRS U.DER~tIIG rOREClSTS ..................... ... (App.ndl. Al ... ... BASIC AlISUH'TlOIS 'UIDAHIITAL PARABITIIS ... ... '" ... . Growtb 'aths tor Beano.to B.... · Co.position ot the leoDo.10 .... ... ... . Moat Probablt Mortl_.' Ratt (Induatr" Co..utera. Ratir... · To~rl..) ... ... . aat. ot Boualnl Appreciation I EmplOyalnt/Populatlon/Hou.ln. Multlpller. '" ... . Rate ot Inflatlon · Ma,ket Sbar.. ot D.tacb.d/Attaobed loa" ... ... ... ................................................................................................... ..... ... . ...................................................................... ..... ..... ... ... . . ................................................ ................................................. . . . . . POTlRTllL HOUSlla DEHAID POR TRI PROJICT' . ROUSlla SUPPLt AID CAPTURE lATHS · . ., FOR TRI ClMDlDATI PROJICT · I · · · . . R...n\ D.a.lr.pbl., Eapl.,..n\ .nd . ., Suro.y nt tb. A.tl.. R..ld.ntl.1 Proj.c\. · Con.tructlon Aotlvit1 Trlnda ., ln thl Marklt RI.lon · . 'orlca,t' tor laplor-Int, populatlon . ., Co.parabll Proj.ct. 1n thl Mark.t ae,lon: · and Hou.ln., D...nd · · Market SI...nt', Prlc" · Product T1P" · . Cnap.rl.on ot For....\. wltb I.c.nt . ., prn-R.t. C.p\ur. R.t.. tnr tb. C.ndlda\' · Population' Houdnl Trend. ., Prnj.n\ · . Coapo.ltlon ot Hou.lnl D...nd by Prlc,' ., Coap.tltl...... or C.ndld.t. proj..t · R.nl.., B.rk.\ S....n\. .nd lnu.l.1 · · 'roj.n\ Sl..' · Product 'I'1pe. · · Location · . Bodltl..tlon ot Rou.lnl D...od ror tb.' · Produn\ Pl.na: Prl... · Ll.lna Ar... · Candidat, Project · · Sp.cial A.,nitie. · Mark.t s...enta . ., Captur. 'ate tor the Cand1date Projlot · Produot Tfpe · · · Prlcl RaD,1 · · · . potlnt1al Hou.in. DI.and tor th. . · · Candld.t. pr.j.nt · · · . . . ................................................ ................................................. ..... ..... ... ... . . ............................................................... ..... ... . ..................... ABSORPTION SCIEDULE rOR THE 'ROJECT .................. ,.. ... ... . Zati..t.d. Innual De.and tor the Candldat. Project ,.. ... . Adjust.eDt of D..and tor Project. ln Mort,a.. Bond I..uI' ,.. ... . Candidat. 'rojeot" Captur. aatl ... ... . Tl.. ..quir.d tor.th. Candidate Projlct to b. lb.orbld ... ... .11 .............................................................................. ..... ... . ............... rElSIBILItt AIALYSIS or THB CANDIDATE PROJICT ............ ... ... I" . .1.enuI. ot thl Projlct II' ... . Coata of thl proj.ct ,.. ... . Profitabilit1 of thl Project ... ... . 'rea.nt 'alue ot thl 'arcll and Lot. ... i.. II' .............................................................................. ..... ... . .................. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS O' THI PROJECT ..................... ... ... ... . Alternativl Mortsa,1 Rat. rlnancln, Rat.. ... ... . llternatl.' Prio1 Appreclation/Coat Inflation ... ... . Su...r, ... ... ... ..............................................................................