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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCity of SB Economic Forcast Part IIUCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development UCR Center for Economic Forecasting and Development | ucreconomicforecast.org Patrick Adler, Ph.D. Manager, Sustainable Growth and Development UCR School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development Beacon Economics LLC July 23, 2021 Economic Forecast and Vision for San Bernardino UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Major League Region, Minor League Downtown The inland empire has more than twice Greater Milwaukee’s population... It does not have a center UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Major league downtowns happen in big regions Greater San Francisco 4.7 Million people Greater Seattle 1.7 Million people Greater Tampa 1.2 Million people Greater Pittsburgh 1.1 Million people Greater Baltimore 1.1 Million people Greater San Bernardino 1.2 Million People UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Establishment center to a large region Low population density Low establishment density Lack of ‘Destination Amenities’ The Problem: In Brief Data from Zip Business Patterns (US Census, 2018) and based on the most establishment-dense zip code in each Metropolitan Statistical Area Regional Population (Rank) Downtown Population Density (Rank) San Bernardino 4,527,837 (13th) 5,805 (66th) Seattle 3,798,902 (17th) 25,838 (7th) Denver 2,853,077 (21st) 12,282 (18th) Baltimore 2,474,314 (24th) 13,239 (15th) UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development More establishment density than anywhere in the Inland Empire County Seat Room to Grow Downtown Tradition Intra-Regional & Inter-Regional Transit Links Major League Potential UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Outline Targets •Establishment Density •Population Density •Attractive Quality of Life Planning Horizon •The Chicken and Egg Problem •Short-Term Renewal •Long-Term Renaissance 5 Sparks •Anchor Firms •Producer Services •Public Safety •Master Planning •Zoning Reform Downtown Renaissance •Destination Amenities •Hospitality Infrastructure •Command and Control Functions UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Development Targets UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Establishment Density = residents per square mile —Current 2,578 Downtown San Bernardino currently ranks 66th among all regional downtowns in terms of population density, lower than —Charleston, WV —Green Bay, WI —Scranton, PA Target 1 Population Density UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Establishment Density = more establishments per square mile — Current 213 Downtown San Bernardino leads the Inland empire in establishment density, but DTSB’s absolute establishment density is that of a smaller regional center Target 2 Establishment Density Regional Population (Rank) Estab. Density (Rank) San Bernardino 4,527,837 (13th) 213 (116th) Seattle 3,798,902 (17th) 5,545 (7th) Denver 2,853,077 (21st) 3,038 (10th) Baltimore 2,474,314 (24th) 990 (31st) UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development IE a neighborhood that supports a lifestyle that residents want for themselves — Amenities — Safety — Belonging Facets — Activities throughout the week — Self-Sustainability (‘15 minute neighborhood’ — “Eyes on the street” — Destinations Target 3 Attractive Quality of Life Sbfoodfest.com UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Planning Horizon UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Outline Planning Horizon •The Chicken and Egg Problem •Short-Term Renewal •Long-Term Renaissance 5 Renewal Sparks •Anchor Firms •Producer Services •Public Safety •Master Planning •Zoning Reform Downtown Renaissance •Destination Amenities •Command and Control Functions •A Regional Development Strategy UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Establishment and Population Density are Highly Correlated UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Establishment Density Residential Density Establishment Density Residential Density A Chicken and Egg Problem UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Last 10 Years — Population density -10% — Establishment density -35% Shrinking Cities — Infrastructure / Blight Cycle — Lower Tax Base/ Weaker Public Goods — Maintenance and security costs slow recovery It is harder to restart development in shrinking cities Also, a ‘Shrinking Cities’ Problem UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development ‘Renaissance’ 10-20 Years ‘Renewal’ 5-10 Years Planning Horizon UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Aspect Renewal Renaissance Time Horizon 5-10 Years 10-20 Years Mission Reestablish IE’s Downtown in San Bernardino Become a National Destination Peers Based on current establishment density Based on regional size Guiding Philosophy Speed Fit Governance City-Level County & Regional Renewal Before Renaissance UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Mission: jumpstart human and establishment density in Downtown San Bernardino — Quick successes matter — Satisficing > Optimizing 5-10 Years Renewal Phase: Generating Population and Establishment Density UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Short-Term Peers Rank Zip State City Region Estab. Density 85 85701 AZ Tucson, AZ Tucson 387 86 44115 OH Cleveland, OH Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor 380 87 52401 IA Cedar Rapids, IA Cedar Rapids 373 88 37402 TN Chattanooga, TN Chattanooga 368 89 93921 CA Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA Salinas 335 90 93301 CA Bakersfield, CA Bakersfield-Delano 334 91 80903 CO Colorado Springs, CO Colorado Springs 321 92 95202 CA Stockton, CA Stockton 320 93 93721 CA Fresno, CA Fresno 309 94 55802 MN Duluth, MN Duluth 292 95 29601 SC Greenville, SC Greenville-Mauldin-Easley 290 96 77702 TX Beaumont, TX Beaumont-Port Arthur 290 97 68508 NE Lincoln, NE Lincoln 286 98 28801 NC Asheville, NC Asheville 280 99 17401 PA York, PA York-Hanover 277 100 43604 OH Toledo, OH Toledo 265 101 92401 CA San Bernardino, CA Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario 265 102 78401 TX Corpus Christi, TX Corpus Christi 264 103 97401 OR Eugene, OR Eugene-Springfield 262 104 46601 IN South Bend, IN South Bend-Mishawaka 253 105 87110 NM Albuquerque, NM Albuquerque 247 106 65806 MO Springfield, MO Springfield 244 107 99518 AK Anchorage, AK Anchorage 240 108 79401 TX Lubbock, TX Lubbock 236 109 31401 GA Savannah, GA Savannah 235 110 34102 FL Naples, FL Naples-Marco Island 232 111 15901 PA Johnstown, PA Johnstown 223 112 68114 NE Omaha, NE Omaha-Council Bluffs 223 113 5401 VT Burlington, VT Burlington-South Burlington 220 114 49503 MI Grand Rapids, MI Grand Rapids-Wyoming 217 115 66612 KS Topeka, KS Topeka 216 116 71101 LA Shreveport, LA Shreveport-Bossier City 208 117 34994 FL Stuart, FL Port St. Lucie 205 118 59401 MT Great Falls, MT Great Falls 201 UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Mission: Foster a comparative advantage for DTSB among the country’s largest regions 10- 30 Years Renaissance: Develop a Niche for Downtown San Bernardino UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Long-Term Peers City Metro Metro Employment Detroit Detroit 1,801,262 Phoenix Phoenix 1,800,506 Seattle Seattle 1,773,052 Denver Denver 1,315,258 San Diego San Diego 1,291,966 Clayton St. Louis 1,254,268 San Bernardino Inland Empire 1,212,282 Baltimore Baltimore 1,195,841 Tampa Tampa 1,150,657 Orlando Orlando 1,109,216 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 1,098,445 UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Outline 5 Renewal Sparks •Anchor Firms •Producer Services •Public Safety •Master Planning •Zoning Reform Downtown Renaissance •Destination Amenities •Command and Control Functions •A Regional Development Strategy UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development 5 Renewal Sparks UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Less successful projects confuse attractions for anchors —Attractions: give people a reason to go downtown —Anchors: create downtown routines Attractions: — Music Venues — Stadia — Museums — Festivals Anchors create regular commutes —Offices —Residences —Institutions Anchors vs Attractions UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Retail has traditionally anchored downtown life — Markets — Department Stores — Malls San Bernardino was early to learn that retail doesn’t last forever Absent a shopping center there must be a reason to come downtown: — Amenities — Wages and Income — Homes Beyond the Retail Anchor UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Revitalization requires the attraction of a non-governmental anchor —No offense! Government jobs are an important lifeline, but also have: —Fixed schedules —Less technology absorption —Less spinoff potential Most importantly, the size of government tens to trail growth Spark 1 : Anchor Tenants (1/2) Photo Credit: https://3dwarehouse.sketchup.com/ UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development A suitable anchor will: — Be from the private sector — Employ < 500 fulltime staff — Have strong linkages local businesses An ideal anchor will: — Be from a F2F-demanding industry — Link with CSU SB Potential Targets — Major regional employers: one job downtown > 1 job elsewhere — Logistics command and control — Film Industry — CSU SB Facilities Spark 1 Anchor Tenants (2/2) UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development San Bernardino does not currently enjoy ‘built in’ advantages from producer services employment This is especially true in legal services — The number of downtown law offices dropped from 56 to 31 between 2009 and 2019 Producer services are upstream of hospitality Need to understand this drop better, and ‘re-recruit’ these operations Spark 2: Producer Services UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Growing Producer Services in Nashville, TN Source: The Milken Institute; Producer Services growth positively related to health of local economy (Millis et al. 2012) Nashville, TN had fastest Producer Services growth in US, mostly through expansions — AllianceBernstein added >1,000 jobs in 2019 —Amazon >5,000 Operations Jobs 4th Strongest metro economy (Policom, ‘21) UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development There aren’t enough lawyers in Downtown San Bernardino! Source: State Bar Association Websites San Bernardino has fewer lawyers downtown than downtowns in peer regions ore peer downtowns Related to number of lawyers in City of San Bernardino as a whole — Only 25% of county lawyers work in San Bernardino Lawyers are the ‘low hanging fruit’ of recruitment and retention. City Lawyers in Court Zip Code Share of City San Diego 5,404 22% Sacramento 3,955 49% Seattle 3,913 25% Denver 3,368 36% Oakland 2,497 56% Phoenix 900 12% Santa Ana 806 33% Riverside 776 53% Greenville (SC)690 40% Asheville (NC)508 65% Corpus Christi 462 40% St. Louis 220 38% San Bernardino 207 32% UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development US Census ZIP Business Patterns and FBI Crime Data Underperforming Downtowns and Crime 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350Average Yearly Crimes Per Capita Average Establishment Density Underperforming Downtowns (2007-2016) San Bernardino, CA UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Spark 3: Public Safety: Putting Eyes on the Street Eyes on the street : …”there must be eyes upon the street, eyes belonging to those we might call the natural proprietors of the street. The buildings on a street equipped to handle strangers and to insure the safety of both residents and strangers, must be oriented to the street. They cannot turn their backs or blank sides on it and leave it blind” Residential density improves safety Community safety approaches pay off — e.g. Wilmington Delaware’s “Safety Ambassadors” UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Safe Anchor in Cary, North Carolina US Census ZIP Business Patterns and FBI Crime Data 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 101 103 105 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Establishment Density Number of Crimes Cary, NC Crime and Establishment Density Crimes Establishment Density Anchored by SAS Software and home to MetLife and Verizon New $1 billion mixed use project recently began construction in Cary, NC Ranked as the Safest City in America in 2019 by Homesnacks in 2019 UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development AECOM Report (2009) — During the first five years of the Vision & Action Plan, several key and catalyst projects will be initiated. New development will be complemented by infrastructure improvements. Key to the success of the plan is the first phase which establishes the minimum standard of excellence for all future development in the Downtown. It is essential that this first development of both the public realm elements; streets and plazas, as well as the new retail and theatre program be a success. Over-reaching and/or underperforming would send the wrong signal to the market. This is right! But how can you tell what a catalytic project is? — UCR: one that directly and significantly increases density On Catalytic Development UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Carousel Mall is the major source of ‘shrinking city’ Ideal opportunity to directly increase downtown density —Other cities don’t have this Unit affordability is key —Can government workers and law offices afford rents? Spark 4 Master Planning (1/2) UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development California Theater is a significant architectural feature — Worthy of a trip from Los Angeles and beyond! Strategic asset within regional live music economy — Destination tourism — Talent attraction and retention Upgrades will —Improve event quality —Deepen promoter/city relationship Spark 4 Master Planning (2/2) UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Spark 5: Zoning Reform Source: Urban Footprint Land Use UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Benchmark cities zone more mix-use and commercial Source: Urban Footprint Asheville, NC Greenville, SC Milwaukee, WI Land Use UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Start with a community vision or plan of the land in mind, from the shape to the scale Approved construction that fits within the vision, on a ‘by-right’ basis a.Increases the likelihood that the end-product will closely match the intention b.Encourages mixed use and focuses on the role that each building serves in the community Successful Implementation — Asheville — Miami — Austin — Denver — Portland Form-Based Codes: Overview UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development You can’t zone your way out of demand problems — Demand for housing — Demand for workers A form-based approach is a strong signal to developers Less risky in 2021 Less risky in Downtown San Bernardino — No major ‘neighborhood character’ concerns — Per previous slide: some development > perfect development Form-Based Codes Assessment UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Outline Targets •Establishment Density •Population Density •Attractive Quality of Life Planning Horizon •The Chicken and Egg Problem •Short-Term Renewal •Long-Term Renaissance 5 Sparks •Anchor Firms •Producer Services •Public Safety •Master Planning •Zoning Reform Downtown Renaissance •Destination Amenities •Hospitality Infrastructure •Command and Control Functions UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Renaissance UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Downtown San Bernardino desperately needs to spark revitalization —All efforts should go into jump starting the process After DTSB ‘levels’ up, it can begin to think like a major league downtown district — Nationally-Significant Destinations — Hospitality Infrastructure —Corporate Headquarters Thinking Bigger UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Broad-based Engagement — Citizen’s groups — Coalitions of officials — Establishments (especially in producer services) A Downtown for the Whole City —Every resident deserves a working downtown —The City of San Bernardino deserves Downtown rents and taxes City/County Collaboration — Improvements — Community Planning Support It Starts with Governance UCR Center for Economic Forecasting & Development Thank You Chris@BeaconEcon.com | ucreconomicforecast.org Patrick Adler | Patrick.Adler@ucr.edu | 310-850-2048 Additional Data and Analysis by Brady Allardice and Brian Vanderplas (UCRCEFD)