HomeMy WebLinkAbout220-5840 San Bernardino Council Meeting Presentation 06.24.20
5840
-
220
June 3, 2020
-
Survey Conducted
May 30
Issues Survey
City of San Bernardino
1
June 3, 2020
-
4.9%
Methodology
-
Surveys completed by a random sample of 437 City of San Bernardino residents who are likely to vote in the November 2020 electionSurvey conducted online and by phone (mobile phones and
landlines) between May 30Margin of error: +/Interviews conducted in English and SpanishSome percentages may not sum to 100% due to roundingSome questions tracked to previous survey
conducted for the City in 2019 and 2007
2
3
83%
Need
Some
Great/
onal funding to provide the level of
67%
iti
12%
Real Need
A Little/No
June 2020
17%
7%
5%5%
88%
Need
Some
Great/
70%
9%
Real Need
A Little/No
18%
August 2019
5%
4%
3%
funding remains extraordinarily high.
Q4. Do you think the City of Oxnard has a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for addCity services that local residents need and want?
Perceptions of the City’s need for additional
Great need
Some need
Don’t know
A little need
No real need
4
51%
30%
Total
Better
11%
Total
Worse
19%
Your Personal
12%
Financial Situation
8%
7%
5%
47%
Total
Worse
24%
Total
Better
26%
22%
21%
18%
Economy
7%
6%
The City of San Bernardino’s
Don’t know
Much worse
Much better
Q2. Do you believe that _______________ will get better, worse, or stay about the same over the next year or so?
financial situation will not change or will improve.
Somewhat worse
Somewhat better
local economy, but more than half say their personal
There is significant concern about the direction of the
Stay about the same
5
44%
54%
65%
Pandemic Not Under Control
Local Economy Not Recovered
76%
20%
“6 months”), do you think the coronavirus pandemic will generally be under control or “6 months”), do you think the San Bernardino economy will have recovered or not?
Don't Know
Don't Know
18%
SPLIT SAMPLE B: SPLIT SAMPLE B:
14%
“a few weeks”) (“a few weeks”) (
11%
36%
28%
21%
Pandemic Under Control
SPLIT SAMPLE A: SPLIT SAMPLE A:
(
Local Economy Recovered
13%
think the economy will not recover in that time.
Q10. Looking ahead (not? Split SampleQ11. Looking aheadSplit Sample
6 months
6 months
under control within six months and an even greater number
A few weeks
A few weeks
Nearly half of voters think the coronavirus pandemic will not be
6
-
in
-
61%
erns you more right now?
onc
29%
11%
putting lives at risk
OR
Both/Neither/Don't know
and prolong the epidemic,
ten who worry it will go on too long.
unnecessary damage to the
ten voters are more concerned about social
-
endangering the economy and
in
Q12. When it comes to social distancing and the closure of businesses in the City of San Bernardino, which of the following c
Social distancing will end too soon
-
economy and residents’ livelihoods
Social distancing will go on and cause
distancing ending too soon compared to three
Six
7
8
a
911
atuntil
measure
tax
oversight,
prevention
police,
a
park/library
annually
homelessness
Measure
sales
shall
audits,
and
retaining/attracting
including
million
Safety
40
repairs,
senior
$
services,
areas,
Bernardino’s
services
independent
gang/prostitution
school,
-
City
adopted?
San
general
public
to
be
of
Services/Public
after
approximately
requiring
other
City
City
street/pothole
locally,
response,
youth
and
(Same as Baseline Survey)
cleaning
the
reductions
voters,
used
providing
by
Bernardino
rate,
Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it?
prevent
funds
Sales Tax Ballot Measure Tested in Survey
%
San To
emergencyprograms,maintenance,programs,businesses,extending1
endedall
9
Yes
66%
Total
63%
38%
No
24%
Total
2020
25%
13%
10%
7%
4%
3%
Yes
69%
Total
64%
44%
No
26%
Total
2019
20%20%
5%5%
4%
1%
thirds of respondents support the
-
Undecided
similar to the results in August 2019.
Probably no
Probably yes
Two Definitely no
Definitely yes
sales tax measure on the initial reading,
Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it?
Undecided, lean no
Undecided, lean yes
10
11%
7
32%
(15%)
(Mulvihill)
57%
11%
6
12%
(12%)
(Richard)
77%
11%
5
27%
(20%)
(Nickel)
62%
Undecided
7%
4
26%
(20%)
Total No
(Shorett)
66%
1%
3
29%
Total Yes
(13%)
Initial Vote by City Council Ward
(Figueroa)
70%
13%
2
every City Council District.
25%
(11%)
(Ibarra)
61%
16%
1
(9%)
10%
Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it?
(Sanchez)
74%
Support for the measure is at or near 60% in
(% of Sample)
11
12
.
88%87%84%84%83%82%82%
Impt
Ext./Very
5%
8%
8%
12%12%
10%
13%
10%
Don't Know
ou personally: is it extremely
might be included in this local ballot o y
at
29%
35%
35%
35%
33%
39%
40%
which would prevent reductions to City services by
Not Too Impt.
you considered earlier,
Smwt. Impt.
59%
53%
49%
48%
48%
44%
43%
Very Impt.
ins
-
term
-
Ext. Impt.
San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure
police response
emergencies and maintaining public safety.
Cleaning public areas
respond to emergencies
Preventing reductions to
Addressing homelessness
financial ability to effectively
Q13. Please return to the extending the City sales tax at a 1% rate. I am now going to read you a list of possible projects, features and provisions thmeasure. Regardless of your opinion
of the measure overall, please tell me how important that provision or use of funds is timportant, very important, somewhat important, or not too important? ^Not Part of Split Sample
Preventing reductions to 911
emergency response services
The highest priorities for funding include protecting local
^Maintaining the City’s long
businesses and jobs, addressing homelessness, responding to
Reducing home and auto break
Protecting local businesses and jobs
13
.
81%81%79%78%77%76%
Impt
Ext./Very
5%
5%
14%
13%
13%
15%
14%18%
Don't Know
ou personally: is it extremely
might be included in this local ballot o y
at
38%
39%
which would prevent reductions to City services by
33%
38%
39%
43%
Not Too Impt.
you considered earlier,
Smwt. Impt.
43%
43%
42%
40%
38%
36%
Very Impt.
Ext. Impt.
and safer
San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure
prevention programs
gang and prostitution
-
pothole repair services
Improving City services
Maintaining streetlights
Preventing reductions to
anti
Q13. Please return to the extending the City sales tax at a 1% rate. I am now going to read you a list of possible projects, features and provisions thmeasure. Regardless of your opinion
of the measure overall, please tell me how important that provision or use of funds is timportant, very important, somewhat important, or not too important? ^Not Part of Split Sample
and drinking fountains, cleaner
street repairs and improving City services generally.
Other priorities include retaining/attracting businesses,
Retaining and attracting businesses
Preventing reductions to street and
^Making parks, including restrooms
14
15
82%
75%74%
36%
25%
27%
which would prevent
on this measure.
Smwt. More Incl.
Yes
d to vote
49%
47%
46%
ine
Much More Incl.
the long run.
community safer.
San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure
the
support
San Bernardino city residents.
This measure includes accountability
The state is releasing parolees into our community early,
(ACCOUNTABILITY)
that can be used to hire more police officers to make our
^
San Bernardino’s streets and roads require substantial repair
ensure funds are used as voters intended and only to benefit
The most impactful messages about the measure
reference roads, public safety and accountability.
Q14. I am going to read you some statements from people who may reductions to City services by extending the City sales tax at a one percent rate. Please tell me if this makes you more
incl^Not Part of Split Sample
is estimated at more than $200 million. If we do not address this
property crime is on the rise, and gang activity from surrounding
a citizen committee, and annual independent financial audits that
(SAFETY)
infrastructure issue now, it will get worse and will cost more to fix in
and repaving. Independent pavement management engineers rated
efforts to maintain police services, the City has not been able to keep
up with the increase in crime rates. This measure will provide funding
requirements such as public disclosure of all spending, oversight from
(ROADS)
communities is impacting safety for San Bernardino residents. Despite
nearly 80% of the roads in San Bernardino as either poor or very poor.
The costs of getting all of the City’s streets up to established standards
16
73%
71%
70%
26%
which would prevent
21%
27%
on this measure.
Smwt. More Incl.
Yes
d to vote
49%
47%
44%
ine
Much More Incl.
drug
-
San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure
gang and anti
the
-
support
business and raise a family.
This measure will provide funding for
risk youth and their families, as well as
-
dropping out and keep them off the streets.
The City must ensure that we can respond to any
We need to protect our kids from gangs and drugs. This
(QUALITY OF LIFE)
school programs for students that help prevent them from
emergency communication systems, maintaining rapid 911
maintained streets, improved local parks, safer and cleaner
-
public health or catastrophic emergency including updating
-
emergency response and gangs also resonate strongly.
Q14. I am going to read you some statements from people who may reductions to City services by extending the City sales tax at a one percent rate. Please tell me if this makes you more
incl^Not Part of Split Sample
measure provides funding to continue anti
improving the health, cleanliness and safety of our community.
(EMERGENCY)
after
current crisis, and make San Bernardino a better place to live, do
^
(GANGS)
better
prevention programs for at
measure is to strengthen our community, help us recover from the
emergency response times, preparing our local police services, and
neighborhoods, and rapid 911 emergency response. The goal of the
Messages that reference improvements to quality of life services,
17
50%
60%28%12%
After
Opposition
20%11%
69%
After
2020
Information
66%24%10%
Vote
Initial
66%24%10%
After
Opposition
4%
76%19%
After
2019
Information
4%
26%
69%
Vote
Initial
above the majority vote threshold.
Q6, Q15 & Q17. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it?
Total No
Total Yes
Undecided
of information support for the measure remains
Similar to the baseline survey, after an exchange
18
19
Repeal
Half Sample
City Sales Tax
County Fire Protection Tax
Service Users’ Tax Reduction
Survey Structure
Repeal
Half Sample
City Sales Tax
“Split Roll” Prop 13
County Fire Protection Tax
20
Yes
59%
Total
56%
35%
No
36%
Total
23%
21%
ten local voters
-
9%
in
-
5%
4%4%
commercial property tax.
Nearly six
Undecided
Probably no
support the Split Roll measure on
Probably yes
Definitely no
Definitely yes
Undecided, lean no
Undecided, lean yes
Q4. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample
21
No
50%
Total
Yes
40%
Total
31%
ten support it.
35%
-
25%
in
-
14%
10%10%
5%
4%
Undecided
Probably no
Probably yes
Definitely no
Definitely yes
Undecided, lean no
Undecided, lean yes
Q5 Total. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it?
Tax repeal measure, but four
A majority of voters oppose the Fire Protection
22
9%
54%
(22%)
Republicans
37%
10%
Undecided
50%
(24%)
Total No
Independents
40%
Total Yes
Fire Protection Tax Vote by Party
10%
49%
(54%)
Democrats
41%
Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it?
(% of Sample)
The lack of major differences in support levels on
the measure by party imply some voter confusion.
23
No
52%
Total
Yes
31%
35%
Total
35%
18%
17%
14%
13%
5%
2%
Undecided
Probably no
Probably yes
Definitely no
Definitely yes
A small majority of voters oppose a
Service Users’ Tax reduction measure.
Undecided, lean no
Undecided, lean yes
Q5 Total. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it?
24
25
cent
-
Conclusions
A renewal of the San Bernardino city sales tax at a onerate is viable to be placed on the November 2020 ballot.The measure enjoys high initial support which increases after information.
Communication with voters and stakeholders is important to educate the public about the City’s needs.Understanding of the City’s need for additional funding remains extraordinarily
high.Support for the sales tax is slightly lower than in the August 2019 survey which is likely due to a combination of the discussion of other ballot measures in the survey, as well
as strong levels of concern about the coronavirus pandemic, the associated health impacts and its effect on the economy.