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HomeMy WebLinkAboutFM3 Research 220-5840 San Bernardino Council Meeting Presentation 06.24.20 5840 - 220 June 3, 2020 - Survey Conducted May 30 Issues Survey City of San Bernardino 1 June 3, 2020 - 4.9% Methodology - Surveys completed by a random sample of 437 City of San Bernardino residents who are likely to vote in the November 2020 electionSurvey conducted online and by phone (mobile phones and landlines) between May 30Margin of error: +/Interviews conducted in English and SpanishSome percentages may not sum to 100% due to roundingSome questions tracked to previous survey conducted for the City in 2019 and 2007 2 3 83% Need Some Great/ onal funding to provide the level of 67% iti 12% Real Need A Little/No June 2020 17% 7% 5%5% 88% Need Some Great/ 70% 9% Real Need A Little/No 18% August 2019 5% 4% 3% funding remains extraordinarily high. Q4. Do you think the City of Oxnard has a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for addCity services that local residents need and want? Perceptions of the City’s need for additional Great need Some need Don’t know A little need No real need 4 51% 30% Total Better 11% Total Worse 19% Your Personal 12% Financial Situation 8% 7% 5% 47% Total Worse 24% Total Better 26% 22% 21% 18% Economy 7% 6% The City of San Bernardino’s Don’t know Much worse Much better Q2. Do you believe that _______________ will get better, worse, or stay about the same over the next year or so? financial situation will not change or will improve. Somewhat worse Somewhat better local economy, but more than half say their personal There is significant concern about the direction of the Stay about the same 5 44% 54% 65% Pandemic Not Under Control Local Economy Not Recovered 76% 20% “6 months”), do you think the coronavirus pandemic will generally be under control or “6 months”), do you think the San Bernardino economy will have recovered or not? Don't Know Don't Know 18% SPLIT SAMPLE B: SPLIT SAMPLE B: 14% “a few weeks”) (“a few weeks”) ( 11% 36% 28% 21% Pandemic Under Control SPLIT SAMPLE A: SPLIT SAMPLE A: ( Local Economy Recovered 13% think the economy will not recover in that time. Q10. Looking ahead (not? Split SampleQ11. Looking aheadSplit Sample 6 months 6 months under control within six months and an even greater number A few weeks A few weeks Nearly half of voters think the coronavirus pandemic will not be 6 - in - 61% erns you more right now? onc 29% 11% putting lives at risk OR Both/Neither/Don't know and prolong the epidemic, ten who worry it will go on too long. unnecessary damage to the ten voters are more concerned about social - endangering the economy and in Q12. When it comes to social distancing and the closure of businesses in the City of San Bernardino, which of the following c Social distancing will end too soon - economy and residents’ livelihoods Social distancing will go on and cause distancing ending too soon compared to three Six 7 8 a 911 atuntil measure tax oversight, prevention police, a park/library annually homelessness Measure sales shall audits, and retaining/attracting including million Safety 40 repairs, senior $ services, areas, Bernardino’s services independent gang/prostitution school, - City adopted? San general public to be of Services/Public after approximately requiring other City City street/pothole locally, response, youth and (Same as Baseline Survey) cleaning the reductions voters, used providing by Bernardino rate, Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? prevent funds Sales Tax Ballot Measure Tested in Survey % San To emergencyprograms,maintenance,programs,businesses,extending1 endedall 9 Yes 66% Total 63% 38% No 24% Total 2020 25% 13% 10% 7% 4% 3% Yes 69% Total 64% 44% No 26% Total 2019 20%20% 5%5% 4% 1% thirds of respondents support the - Undecided similar to the results in August 2019. Probably no Probably yes Two Definitely no Definitely yes sales tax measure on the initial reading, Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Undecided, lean no Undecided, lean yes 10 11% 7 32% (15%) (Mulvihill) 57% 11% 6 12% (12%) (Richard) 77% 11% 5 27% (20%) (Nickel) 62% Undecided 7% 4 26% (20%) Total No (Shorett) 66% 1% 3 29% Total Yes (13%) Initial Vote by City Council Ward (Figueroa) 70% 13% 2 every City Council District. 25% (11%) (Ibarra) 61% 16% 1 (9%) 10% Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? (Sanchez) 74% Support for the measure is at or near 60% in (% of Sample) 11 12 . 88%87%84%84%83%82%82% Impt Ext./Very 5% 8% 8% 12%12% 10% 13% 10% Don't Know ou personally: is it extremely might be included in this local ballot o y at 29% 35% 35% 35% 33% 39% 40% which would prevent reductions to City services by Not Too Impt. you considered earlier, Smwt. Impt. 59% 53% 49% 48% 48% 44% 43% Very Impt. ins - term - Ext. Impt. San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure police response emergencies and maintaining public safety. Cleaning public areas respond to emergencies Preventing reductions to Addressing homelessness financial ability to effectively Q13. Please return to the extending the City sales tax at a 1% rate. I am now going to read you a list of possible projects, features and provisions thmeasure. Regardless of your opinion of the measure overall, please tell me how important that provision or use of funds is timportant, very important, somewhat important, or not too important? ^Not Part of Split Sample Preventing reductions to 911 emergency response services The highest priorities for funding include protecting local ^Maintaining the City’s long businesses and jobs, addressing homelessness, responding to Reducing home and auto break Protecting local businesses and jobs 13 . 81%81%79%78%77%76% Impt Ext./Very 5% 5% 14% 13% 13% 15% 14%18% Don't Know ou personally: is it extremely might be included in this local ballot o y at 38% 39% which would prevent reductions to City services by 33% 38% 39% 43% Not Too Impt. you considered earlier, Smwt. Impt. 43% 43% 42% 40% 38% 36% Very Impt. Ext. Impt. and safer San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure prevention programs gang and prostitution - pothole repair services Improving City services Maintaining streetlights Preventing reductions to anti Q13. Please return to the extending the City sales tax at a 1% rate. I am now going to read you a list of possible projects, features and provisions thmeasure. Regardless of your opinion of the measure overall, please tell me how important that provision or use of funds is timportant, very important, somewhat important, or not too important? ^Not Part of Split Sample and drinking fountains, cleaner street repairs and improving City services generally. Other priorities include retaining/attracting businesses, Retaining and attracting businesses Preventing reductions to street and ^Making parks, including restrooms 14 15 82% 75%74% 36% 25% 27% which would prevent on this measure. Smwt. More Incl. Yes d to vote 49% 47% 46% ine Much More Incl. the long run. community safer. San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure the support San Bernardino city residents. This measure includes accountability The state is releasing parolees into our community early, (ACCOUNTABILITY) that can be used to hire more police officers to make our ^ San Bernardino’s streets and roads require substantial repair ensure funds are used as voters intended and only to benefit The most impactful messages about the measure reference roads, public safety and accountability. Q14. I am going to read you some statements from people who may reductions to City services by extending the City sales tax at a one percent rate. Please tell me if this makes you more incl^Not Part of Split Sample is estimated at more than $200 million. If we do not address this property crime is on the rise, and gang activity from surrounding a citizen committee, and annual independent financial audits that (SAFETY) infrastructure issue now, it will get worse and will cost more to fix in and repaving. Independent pavement management engineers rated efforts to maintain police services, the City has not been able to keep up with the increase in crime rates. This measure will provide funding requirements such as public disclosure of all spending, oversight from (ROADS) communities is impacting safety for San Bernardino residents. Despite nearly 80% of the roads in San Bernardino as either poor or very poor. The costs of getting all of the City’s streets up to established standards 16 73% 71% 70% 26% which would prevent 21% 27% on this measure. Smwt. More Incl. Yes d to vote 49% 47% 44% ine Much More Incl. drug - San Bernardino City Services and Public Safety Measure gang and anti the - support business and raise a family. This measure will provide funding for risk youth and their families, as well as - dropping out and keep them off the streets. The City must ensure that we can respond to any We need to protect our kids from gangs and drugs. This (QUALITY OF LIFE) school programs for students that help prevent them from emergency communication systems, maintaining rapid 911 maintained streets, improved local parks, safer and cleaner - public health or catastrophic emergency including updating - emergency response and gangs also resonate strongly. Q14. I am going to read you some statements from people who may reductions to City services by extending the City sales tax at a one percent rate. Please tell me if this makes you more incl^Not Part of Split Sample measure provides funding to continue anti improving the health, cleanliness and safety of our community. (EMERGENCY) after current crisis, and make San Bernardino a better place to live, do ^ (GANGS) better prevention programs for at measure is to strengthen our community, help us recover from the emergency response times, preparing our local police services, and neighborhoods, and rapid 911 emergency response. The goal of the Messages that reference improvements to quality of life services, 17 50% 60%28%12% After Opposition 20%11% 69% After 2020 Information 66%24%10% Vote Initial 66%24%10% After Opposition 4% 76%19% After 2019 Information 4% 26% 69% Vote Initial above the majority vote threshold. Q6, Q15 & Q17. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Total No Total Yes Undecided of information support for the measure remains Similar to the baseline survey, after an exchange 18 19 Repeal Half Sample City Sales Tax County Fire Protection Tax Service Users’ Tax Reduction Survey Structure Repeal Half Sample City Sales Tax “Split Roll” Prop 13 County Fire Protection Tax 20 Yes 59% Total 56% 35% No 36% Total 23% 21% ten local voters - 9% in - 5% 4%4% commercial property tax. Nearly six Undecided Probably no support the Split Roll measure on Probably yes Definitely no Definitely yes Undecided, lean no Undecided, lean yes Q4. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Split Sample 21 No 50% Total Yes 40% Total 31% ten support it. 35% - 25% in - 14% 10%10% 5% 4% Undecided Probably no Probably yes Definitely no Definitely yes Undecided, lean no Undecided, lean yes Q5 Total. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? Tax repeal measure, but four A majority of voters oppose the Fire Protection 22 9% 54% (22%) Republicans 37% 10% Undecided 50% (24%) Total No Independents 40% Total Yes Fire Protection Tax Vote by Party 10% 49% (54%) Democrats 41% Q6. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? (% of Sample) The lack of major differences in support levels on the measure by party imply some voter confusion. 23 No 52% Total Yes 31% 35% Total 35% 18% 17% 14% 13% 5% 2% Undecided Probably no Probably yes Definitely no Definitely yes A small majority of voters oppose a Service Users’ Tax reduction measure. Undecided, lean no Undecided, lean yes Q5 Total. Based on this description, do you think you would vote “yes” in favor of this measure or “no” to oppose it? 24 25 cent - Conclusions A renewal of the San Bernardino city sales tax at a onerate is viable to be placed on the November 2020 ballot.The measure enjoys high initial support which increases after information. Communication with voters and stakeholders is important to educate the public about the City’s needs.Understanding of the City’s need for additional funding remains extraordinarily high.Support for the sales tax is slightly lower than in the August 2019 survey which is likely due to a combination of the discussion of other ballot measures in the survey, as well as strong levels of concern about the coronavirus pandemic, the associated health impacts and its effect on the economy.