HomeMy WebLinkAbout06.B- City Manager 6.B
DOC ID: 4442 B
CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO — REQUEST FOR COUNCIL ACTION
Agreement/Contract
From: Mark Scott M/CC Meeting Date: 05/16/2016
Prepared by: Tanya Romo, (909) 384-
5122
Dept: City Manager Ward(s): All
Subject:
Discuss and Take Possible Action Regarding Conduction of a Survey to Gauge
Community Attitudes Toward the Legislation and Regulation of Marijuana (#4442)
Current Business Registration Certificate: Not Applicable
Financial Impact:
Account Budgeted Amount: $30,000
Assuming a budger in the $30,000 range, staff can identify funds from salary savings in
the City Manager's Office budget.
Motion: Discuss and take possible action.
Synopsis of Previous Council Action:
At the Legislative Review Committee (LRC) on April 19, 2016, the committee
recommended the item to the Mayor and Common Council.
Background:
The Council's LRC has recommended to the Common Council that a survey be
conducted to gauge community attitudes toward the legislation and regulation of
marijuana.
The previous LRC apparently reached a similar conclusion in November of 2015, but
the recommendation was never submitted to the full Council. Attached is a copy of a
proposal received by former City Manager Allen Parker from opinion research firm
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz and Associates (FM3) dated October 27, 2015. Staff
has confirmed that the firm is still available to do a survey, but the price in the letter
could vary slightly depending on confirmation of the survey scope.
FM3 is a full service research firm that has extensive experience working with cities and
the League of California Cities on various marijuana survey options. In discussing the
project with Mr. Parker, they were asked for a survey that would survey a specific ballot
measure. Their proposal reflects that when it says, "The principal objective of the
research would be to provide data that would ultimately help design a ballot measure
regulating the legalization and taxation of marijuana that San Bernardino voters would
support." I asked if this stated objective reflects as specific goal of their firm or if it
reflects the stated objective presented to them by City representatives. FM3 stated
emphatically that it reflects the letter and that with any survey research, they will
develop questions in consultation with the client to reflect the client's specific objectives.
Updated: 5/9/2016 by Georgeann "Gigi" Hanna B Packet Pg. 569
6.B
4442
Staff seeks Mayor and Common Council input and direction.
Supporting Documents:
FM3 - Public Opinion Reserach Services (PDF)
Updated: 5/9/2016 by Georgeann "Gigi" Hanna B Packet Pg. 570
6.B.a
Fairbank
Maslin,
Matillin,
Metz &
Associates
Public Opinion Research
&Strategy
TO: Allen Parker, City Manager
City of San Bernardino '
cc
FROM: John Fairbank, Rick Sklarz& Adam Sonenshein a
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz&Associates o
CZ
DATE: November 17, 2015 CU
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RE: Public Opinion Research Services
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Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the City of San Bernardino's short-and long-term financial and
public policy needs. As we discussed during our recent conversation, we believe that FM3's research
has a positive role to play in helping you achieve a number of your goals, including the regulation and
taxation of medical marijuana sales in the City. s
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FM3 is one of the nation's leading public opinion research firms in the analysis of voter attitudes a
regarding the regulation of marijuana, and served as the lead opinion research firm for the successful W
campaign to pass California's landmark Medical Marijuana Initiative Proposition 215. We have since o
conducted extensive public opinion research on the regulation and use of medical marijuana statewide Q
for the League of California Cities, and in dozens of California municipalities—most recently the cities 0
of Los Angeles, Palo Alto, Riverside and Santa Ana. Our research for the City of Santa Ana helped
guide Measure BB, a dispensary legalization measure preferred by City leaders because of its stricter a
regulatory and accountability provisions, to victory over a competing measure backed by local M
dispensary owners in the November 2014 election.
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The balance of this memo briefly outlines our recommended methodology, timing and proposed cost to
conduct a baseline voter survey that would examine San Bernardino voters' attitudes toward the issue of
legalizing medicinal marijuana in the City. The principal objective of the research would be to provide w
data that would ultimately help design determine voters' attitudes toward regulating and taxing medical Q
marijuana operations in the City of San Bernardino.
12100 Wilshire Boulevard Suite 350 1999 Harrison Street Suite 2020
Los Angeles,CA 90025 Oakland,CA 94612
Phone: (310)828-1183 Phone: (510)451-9521
Fax: (310)453-6562 Fax:
(510)351-0384
Packet Pg. 571
6.B.a
Page 2
Research. Methodology
Methodological Approach
FM3 proposes to conduct a 20-22 [minute telephone survey (using both landlines and cellular phones)
among 400 City of San Bernardino registered voters who are likely to participate in the November 2016
general election. A sample of 400 participants will result in a margin-of-error for survey results of
±4.9% at the 95% confidence interval. If the City requires greater precision of results for this project,
FM3 can increase the sample size and conduct more interviews to lower the survey's margin-of-error.
However, increasing the overall number of survey interviews creates additional costs; a sample size of a
400 interviews is considered industry-standard because of the balance it provides between precision and N
overall project cost. cn
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Questionnaire Development o
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The survey project will begin with a 'kick-off City staff/FM3 briefing (either in-person or via
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conference call) to clarify the project's goals, sample specifications, and to finalize a project timeline so
as to best inform our design of the survey questionnaire. Drawing on this information, as well as FM3's
knowledge of public opinion survey methodology from its wealth of experience with medical marijuana-
related research, and work on behalf of the City of San Bernardino, the firm will draft a survey
questionnaire and circulate this first draft to City staff for review and comment. After collecting U
comments and suggestions, FM3 will refine the survey questionnaire and circulate a subsequent draft for L
further comment.
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We foresee proceeding through at least two drafts, incorporating feedback from City staff before each
revision, to arrive at a final questionnaire that will obtain all of the information desired by the City.
Before interviewing commences, FM3 will secure approval from the appropriate City representative on
the final version of the questionnaire. o
While we anticipate developing the surve y questionnaire in close consultation with City staff, we o envision the instrument will explore the following issue areas, among others: 2
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• Assessing opinions of medical marijuana in general, and attitudes toward medical marijuana M
dispensaries — specifically, indoor cultivation (large scale for commercial/medical/research U_
purposes); w
• Gauging awareness of the existing City ordinance banning medical marijuana dispensaries from E
operating in the City of San Bernardino;
• Testing public support for permitting the sale and taxing of medical marijuana in the City of San w
Bernardino;
• Understanding how voters react to policy proposals for City Code changes obligating dispensaries to
meet certain criteria or conditions as a requirement for the ban on dispensaries being lifted,
potentially including:
o Limits to the number of dispensaries citywide and/or by area of the City;
Fuirhank.
Alaslin,
Maullin,
Met:c
Associates
Packet Pg. 572
6.B.a
Page 3
o Creating dispensary-free "buffer" zones of specific sizes around schools, parks. Libraries,
childcare facilities, and in residential neighborhoods;
• Limiting medical marijuana sales to those over age 18 vs. those over age 21;
• Restricting hours of operation;
• Prohibiting the sale of tobacco or food products on site;
• Requiring dispensaries to procure special City licenses in addition to regular business licenses;
• Requiring background checks for dispensary operators and employees;
• Requiring at least one security guard on site;
• Requiring certain lighting and alarm systems;
• Denying dispensary licenses to individuals who have been convicted of drug crimes; y
• Levying additional taxes on marijuana sales and/or cultivation at various tax rates;
• Mandating testing of marijuana products for quality, purity, and safety.
Spanish Translation o
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According to FM3's analysis of the City of San Bernardino's likely voter universe for the November
2016 general election, approximately 38 percent of likely San Bernardino voters are projected to identify
as Latino. For this reason, FM3 recommends translating the survey and administering it bilingually so
as to provide every voter an opportunity to complete the questionnaire in the language with which they N
are most comfortable. FM3 routinely conducts surveys in both English and Spanish, and has the ..
capability to translate and provide the survey in Spanish (or other languages) at the City's request.
Kandi Reyes of Reyes & Associates (a small woman-owned business) will translate the questionnaire 2
under the supervision of FM3 Partner Dr. Richard Maullin, who is also fluent in Spanish. Ms. Reyes'
native language is Spanish; she is a certified translator by the State of California and the University of .�
Mexico. Ms. Reyes has translated hundreds of survey instruments for FM3 over the last 20 years.
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If the City determines that an English-only survey is sufficient to fulfill the project's needs, FM3 is W
happy to provide this lower-cost alternative service. o
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Interviewing O
FM3 will subcontract telephone interviewing services to Precision Opinions, Inc. (PO), a U.S.-based a
telephone interviewing facility with whom we regularly collaborate. PO's facilities have well- M
established procedures to supervise the interviewing process and to verify that interviews are conducted
according to specifications. Among said procedures are the monitoring of actual interviews by on-site
supervisors, the identification of each interview by interviewer, and the use of a regularly-employed d
staff of professional, full-time interviewers. There is an established protocol for callbacks of busy or
"not-at-home" numbers designed specifically to maintain the randomness of interviewee selection. FM3 .2
proposes to review its procedures with the City to ensure its satisfaction with all technical aspects of the Q
sample selection and interviewing process. Once the survey is in the field, bilingual interviewers from
PO will be utilized so that respondents may take the survey in Spanish.
Fairhank,
hlaslin,
Maullin,
Metz&
Associates
Packet Pg. 573
6.B.a
Page 4
Data Analysis
Response data will be analyzed by FM3's Data Processing and Analysis Department staff using Survey
System and SAS software, both well-documented and widely used data analysis software packages. As
needed, FM3 may augment Survey System and SAS with its own custom-designed statistical analysis
program to report the tabulation and cross-tabulation of data. The Data Processing and Analysis
Department staff employs a data checking and editing system to eliminate errors and document the
handling of data received from the interviewers.
Within one to two days after interviewing has been completed, FM3 will deliver the aggregate "tpline" m
results of the survey to the City for initial internal review. These results will show the percentage of
respondents that chose each possible answer for all of the survey's questions.
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Within two to three days, FM3 will provide City representatives with a comprehensive set of cross- °
tabulated results. The cross-tabulated results will include a table for each question or demographic CU
variable in the survey, with a series of up to 200 columns indicating how various subgroups of the City :L
electorate responded to that question. The cross-tabulated results will make it possible to detect 1°
differences in responses to each survey question among various subsets of the population. For example,
it will be possible to compare men and women, residents under and over age 50, responses based on
party registration; ethnicity/race, homeowners vs. renters, long-time residents and more recent arrivals,
voters in different regions of the City, and many more subgroups of the population. d
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Finally, FMYs custom-designed data processing software package can convert the raw electronic data to
ASCII format or virtually any other format commonly used, so that the actual survey esults can be
transmitted electronically to the City at the conclusion of the study, if requested. Y U
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Reports,Presentations and Deliverables
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Results of the serve will be �
Y presented both in-person and in writing, depending on the City's o
scheduling needs and preferences. This report will take the form of a detailed PowerPoint presentation 0
of key findings, and can embody additional forms pursuant to the City's needs. After FM3's report and
presentation have been completed, we will remain available indefinitely to answer follow-up questions a
from the City and present results to key stakeholders. We view the survey results as an ongoing data M
resource; should the need arise, FM3 can conduct further analysis to provide answers to additional U_
queries that may be posed by the City or other interested parties.
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Upon conclusion of the survey project, the City will have received from FM3 all of the documents listed
below. All documents can be provided in hard copy or electronic form (or both), depending on the
City's preference.
✓ Final survey questionnaire
✓ Topline survey results (the survey questionnaire filled in with the percentages having chosen
each response code)
Fairhank,
Maslin,
Maullin,
Metz c&
Associates
Packet Pg. 574
Page 5
Full cross-tabulated results(responses to every question in each survey,broken down by dozens
of demographic, geographic, and attitudinal subgroups of the population)
PowerPoint presentation (graphs of topline results, additional key survey findings, conclusions
and actionable recommendations)
✓ Raw data from the survey in electronic form
Project Timeline
FM3 is ready to begin conducting opinion research on behalf of the City immediately. One of our firm's
strengths is the ability to complete a course of research quickly and efficiently. A draft outline of the
timeframe within which project milestones will be completed follows below. Additionally, FM3 is
capable of accelerating or otherwise adjusting this timeline in order to best meet the City's needs. (n
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Week 1
0
• Authorization to proceed; kick-off meeting =
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• Finalize sample specifications and survey methodology and processes
• City provides relevant information for FM3 to begin drafting survey instrument CU
• Circulate first draft of survey for continent
• Revise initial survey draft based upon City staff review and comment
• Finalize survey draft for pre-testing
• Acquire the survey sample a
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Week 2 �n
• Translate survey into Spanish
• Conduct pre-test of survey instrument
• Begin survey interviews w
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Week 3 .0
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• Complete survey interviews C
• Produce topline results
• Debrief with City staff on the topline survey results
• Produce cross-tabulation report
• Produce reporting materials, including a summary of the survey's key findings and a graphic M
presentation of the results
• Present research findings to City staff, elected officials and other stakeholders as needed
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Ongoing
• FM3 remains available to present findings to City staff, consultants, elected officials or other Q
stakeholders as needed
I • FM3 can conduct additional analysis of the survey data as needed; as noted above, we view
survey results as an ongoing resource for our clients
Fairbank,
Maslin,
Muullin,
Matz&
Associates
Packet Pg. 575
• 6.B.a
Page 6
L-11 Research Costs
FM3 recommends conducting a 20-22 minute baseline survey of 400 City of San Bernardino registered
voters likely to participate in the November 2016 general election via landline and cellular telephone.
The margin of error for a full sample of 400 is plus or minus 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence
level. The margin of error for electoral subgroups will be higher.
Table 1 provides costs for the recommended baseline survey length of 15-20 minutes. The figure
provided below is comprehensive, and reflects all costs for sample acquisition, questionnaire
development, programming and pre-testing the survey, Spanish translation, bilingual telephone d
interviewing, data entry, cross-tabulation, data analysis, and preparation and presentation of survey
results. Direct incidental expenses, such as extra reproduction of reports and travel, would be billed at =
cost if incurred.' a
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TABLE I f°
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Baseline Survey Costs by Average Interview Length
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Average Interview Length Cost
15 Minutes $25,250
20 Minutes $29,350
Of course, any number of alternative survey structures are possible, which may result in higher or lower
costs. FM3 is committed to working with you to tailor the research plan to fit your budget and meet
your research needs.
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If you have any questions about this proposal or if you would like more information. please do not
hesitate to contact us. We would welcome the opportunity to work with you to craft a successful
measure. Thank you for your consideration. o
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i FM3 charges for travel based on the IRS 2015 business mileage allowance of 0.575/mile.
Fairbank.
C, Alctrtin,
Alaullin,
Metz&
Associates
Packet Pg. 576
Fairbank,
Maslin,
Maudlin,
Metz &
Associates
Public Opinion Research
&Stratetry
John Fairbank Rick Sklarz Adam Sonenshein
12100 Wilshire Boulevard 12100 Wilshire Boulevard 12100 Wilshire Boulevard o
Suite 350 Suite 350 Suite 350 C
Los Angeles, CA 90025 Los Angeles, CA 90025 Los Angeles, CA 90025 N
(310) 828-1183 (Office) (310) 828-1183 (Office) (310)828-1183 (Office)
(310)463-2230(Cell) (323)219-2279(Cell) (310) 569-3653 (Cell) `U
John&FM3research.com Sklarz@FM3research.com A_ dam a FM3research com 2
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12100 Wilshire Boulevard Suite 350 1999 Harrison Street Suite 2020
Los Angeles, CA 90025 Oakland CA 94612
Phone: (310)828-1183 Phone: (510)451-9521
Fax: (310)453-6562
F�� (510)451-0384