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HomeMy WebLinkAbout03- SCAG & SANBAG FRANK L. WIILIAMS BIN Executive OFFicer BaIdy Vicui Region 9227 Haven Rve.,Suite 280 Rancho Cucomongo,cH 91730 (909)945-1884 FAX(9N)P48-9b31 Pager(909)'464-5984 ,A14/The Sun TH, JAY,December 16,1993 APPORTIONMENT:NORTON 0 3rd St. o a> f . O 0 0 ai • 00 0 0 a o � d o0 SAN c B ERNARD IN O U 0 0 o a CL • •• • • i Air Force will designate the remainder of the AIRPORT I o base by March. ~i BOUNDARY B88 00 o j Mill St. .......... GOLFCOURSE Offered for sale to IVDA I BETTS GRIFFONE/The Sun Norton: S.B. Airport ets l ,345 acres g Continued from Al 10,000 jobs lost by Norton's clo- 87 acres of industrial and com- fully participate in the economic sure. mercial land to the Inland Valley •ebirth of the Inland Empire," Previously, the airport au- Development Agency. ;.aid Rep. Jerry Lewis, R-Red- thority was like a realtor trying to The Air Force will not dis- ands. "The process of creating sell a house not officially for sale close how much it is seeking for jobs and rebuilding our local as it tentatively marketed the the property but will offer it to economy has begun." base to prospective users. another buyer at fair market va- Wednesday's decision liberates lue if an agreement cannot be The decision puts Norton re- the group to begin signing leases reached with the IVDA. developers in line to upgrade the and rovides instant credibility A � p Y pproximately 500 acres of base with about $27 million in in the aviation industry. the base not included in Wednes- federal grants, said Rep. George "I'm ecstatic. This intensifies day's announcement will be cov- Brown,D-San Bernardino. our negotiations (with tenants) ered in a second record of deci- "(It) clears away the cloud and allows us to work for con- sion by March. Most of that land that has been hanging over the tracts," said Trevor Van Horn, is expected to be offered for sale reuse plans of Norton for the past the airport authority's executive to the IVDA. few months," Brown said, refer- director.Companies being wooed ring to the delays caused by West- include J.B. Hunt Transport Inc., ern Eagle Foundation, a home- Southwest Airlines and Kelly l e s s support group that Space and Technology,a start-up previously sought to take over the research firm. entire base. The authority, required to Western Eagle's bid delayed bring the airport up to Federal x` the Pentagon's decision, which Aviation Administration stan- had been expected in August. dards, wants to have a ma or air- :_.. "' °f p g line at the base b J ...r I Some local officials estimated y July, Van that the five month delay cost the Horn said. area $1 million in staff time and In addition to setting the air- lost revenues. port boundaries, the Air Force The transfer announcement awarded about 33 base acres to allows local officials to begin se- the U.S. Forest Service for their rious negotiations with airlines, aviation fleet. transportation companies and in- It also offered to sell the dustrial firms to replace the base's 170-acre golf course and Fina r o rt e ■ The Pentagon agrees to NORTON REUSE turn over the land,meaning base and cargo airlines to the work on upgrading the facility b base that officially closes in and lining up airport tenants March. can begin. The announcement, formally known as Norton's Record of De- By GRAHAM WITHERALL cision,was believed to be the first Sun Business Writer time that base land has been transferred prior to a military The Pentagon agreed site's closure. Wednesday to transfer about 60 Commonly, land is trans- percent of San Bernardino's Nor- ferred when a base is closed but ton Air Force Base to the local with the military's mission fin- community for a major airport, ished at Norton and an organiza- ending 51 years of military con- tion ready to take over the air- trol and sparking hopes for a re- port, the Pentagon allowed the gional economic revival. transfer. "I'm pleased to announce that Area leaders hailed Wednes- at 1:45 p.m. (Wednesday), San day's development as a crucial Bernardino International Air- step in the effort to reignite the port was born, weighing in at region's languishing economy. 1,345 acres," said a beaming "As the crown jewel of our re- Swen Larson,chairman of a coali- gion, Norton is now poised to tion of cities trying to attract pas- See NORTON/A14 fOUTHERn C;IUFORnlp RIIOC3RTiCn OF GOVERnMEnU 818 West Seventh Street,12th Floor 9 Los Angeles, California 90017-3435 7J (213) 236-1800 • FAX(213) 236-1825 November 3, 1993 Mr. Frank L. Williams Executive Of cer Building Industry Association Baldv View Region( 9227 Haven Ave, Suite 280 Rancho Cucamonga-CA 91730 �V Dear Mr.Vdliams: You re- tly requested information regarding the budget and accounting of funds for SCAG's Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP). You also requested that information regarding the grant support provided by federal, state and local jurisdic'sons be included. Our Overall Work Program (OW-P) is prepared annually and sets out our project priorities and the funding. It is approved by SCAG's Regional Council and by our federal and state oversight agencies. The portion of the OW P Budget for FY 1992-93 allocated to support our mandated responsibilities for the RCP was $8.2 million. The giant fund sources allocated to support the work were 75.690 federal, 16.290 state, 6.9a local a:id 1.3 o from all other sources of funds. The actual funds expended in FY 1992-93 were $7.7 million. For FY 1993-94, we have bucicre:ad S9.6 million to complete the mandated portions of the RCP. The grant fund sources allocated to support this work are 78.490 federal, 11.657a state and 10.0°o from local funds. You should also know that a number of non-mandated elements in the Plan are being completed in partnership with and are fully supported by the Metropolitan Water District(Water Supply Eletnent), the California Enemy Commission (Enemy Element), and the Bureau of Land Management (Open Space Element). Sincerely, L� �/ MARK PISANO Executive Director MPIRJO/ck n cc: Hon. Gaddi Vasquez, President, SCAG 0 0 0 03 v Gaddi Vasquez orange County-President. Stella Mendoza Ciry of Brawley.Fr-A Vice President. Ed Edelman Los Angeles County-Second Vice President. John Longville City of Rialto-P= President s Richard Alarcon City of Los Angeles, Richard Alatorre Ciry of Las Angeles, Robert Bartlett City of.Monrovia. George Bass City of Bell. Ronald Bates City of Los Alamit-. George Battey,Jr.City of Burbank, Hal Bernson City of Los Ango!es. Walter Bowman City of Cypress, Marvin Braude City of Los Angeles. Susan Brooks City of Rancho Palos Verdc Art Brown City of Buena Park, Yyonne Brathwaite-Burke Los Angeles County. Jim Busby,Jr.City of Victorville, Bob Buster Riverside County. Laura Chick City of Los Angeles. Joi Cox City of Ne•.vport Beach. Cynthia Crothen Ciry of.tor'no Valley. Elmer Oigneo City of Lana Linda. Richard Dixon City of Lake Forest. Douglas Drummond City of Long Beach. Jer Eaves San Bcmatdino County. John Ferrarn City of Los Angeles. John Flynn Ventura County. Terry Frizzel City of Riverside. Ruth Calanter City of Los Angeles. Sandra Cenis City Costa Mesa. Jackie Goldberg City of Las Angeles. Candace Haggard Ciry of San Clemente, Garland Hardeman City of Inglewood. Robert Hargrave Ciry of Lontiea. Mike Hernandez C of Las Angcles. Nate Holden City of Las Angcics. Robert Jamison City of Arasia. Jelr Kellogg City of Long Beach, Jim Kelly City of Suuth El Monte, Richard Kelly City of Palm Desc Bob Kuhn City of Glendora. Ahbe Land City of Wcst Hollywood, Darlene McBane City of Agoura Hill%, John Melton City of Santa Paula, Barbara Nlc&3ina City of Alhambra. Judy Mik City of Simi Valley. David Myers City of P.ilmdaic. Kathryn Nick City of Pasadena. Be,Perry City of Brea, Cwenn Norton-Perry City of Chino Hills. Ronald Parks City of Temecula. I Pickier City of,knahe,m, Michael Pll%ky City of Oxnard. Beatrice Proo City of Pico Riven. Larry Rhinchart City of.lontciair, Dick Riordan City of La%Angeles. Mark Ridley-Thom City of Los Anvc!cs. Alh<rt Robles City of South Gate. Sam Sharp Impcnal County. Rudy S,nrinich City of Las Angeles. Bob Stone City of Belitlower. Thomas Sikes City of Walnut. J December 8 , 1993 " Honorable Laurie Tulley-Payne Council Member City of Highland President of SANBAG District # 7 SCAG Regional Council Member SCAG Regional Council Planning Committee Member 26985 E. Baseline Highland, CA 92346 SCAG' REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE PLAN Dear Ms . Tulley-Payne: After the regular meeting with you and SANBAG Executive Director Wes McDaniel, Ernie Hix and myself on November 17 , I must say that I was somewhat astonished by your attitude, closed mindedness, and especially your remarks that SCAG' s Regional Comprehensive Plan was a done deal and that you intended to support it and you were confident that it would be adopted. I am at a complete loss as to why you, an elected City Council member, would advocate adding a new layer of government and giving up local land use decisions and other decision making powers and give virtual veto power over city matters to a Regional government. After a desultory review of SCAG' s draft Regional Comprehensive Plan, it was obvious to me that you either have not read the RCP in its entirety or you believe what the plan assumes, (which is a BIG LIE) : " The plan is based on making use of the powers of existing local institutions, cities, counties, special districts, and associations of these units . But over the past two or more decades, these have shown that they lack the powers and capacity to fully meet the demands of growth and change in a region of the size of Southei�;/California. Problems have reached a scale that simply defies the powers of municipal or county level institutions, while regional structures are so distant from the individual that they lack the legitimacy needed in the eyes of most to serve as implementation vehicles . This plan proposes a shift in the pattern of institutional relationships. Instead of one which relies on hierarchial, top-down, mandated actions, a new, a more associative, consensually based emphasis on shared responsibilities is outlined. This shift in the locus of decision-making from "above" to within the community has already begun to occur, although the theory and practice are only imperfectly understood and developed. 000031 9227 Haven Avenue, Suite 280 • Rancho Cucamonga, California 91730 • (714) 945-1884 • FAX (714) 948-9631 Honorable Laurie Tulley-Payne December 8 , 1993 Page 2 The region has already signalled its desire to pursue this direction, and must now work to develop the institutions, the arrangements among them, and the mechanisms for assuring their responsibility for powers now vested in the "top-down" hierarchical. " (page 1-9 , emphasis added. ) The SCAG Regional Comprehensive Plan "talks out of both sides of its mouth" . Brief examples of SCAG "talking out of both sides of their mouth" contained in the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) show how statements of intent are completely inconsistent with directions on implementing the RCP which will likely create legal problems that will be troublesome for local governments . INTRODUCTION "It must be clearly noted that the inclusion of any component or issue in this plan in no way changes the mandates, or adds to them. These additions are intended to serve only as guidances and a framework to inform decisions on the mandates, on local plans, and on governance in general as it seeks to improve the quality of life for all the regions residents. " (page xvii) VERSUS Chapter 1 - Strategy "The new (RCP) approach would rely on local responsibility, acting through a self-regulating and self-correcting mechanisms that reward appropriate actions or behavior, and penalize those that tend to harm the regions interest. This Strategy is the first statement of this approach applied to the full range of urban planning and development activities. " (page 1-15, emphasis added. ) "First all regional plans must be consistent in their basic assumptions and projections . . .To accomplish this, local plans, in the process of being updated, must incorporate these regional assumptions. " (page 1-20 , emphasis added. ) Chapter 15 - Plan Implementation "The California Environmental Quality Act requires that the documentation for all projects or plans subject to environmental review must address consistency of the subject proposals with regional plans. " (page 15-3 , emphasis added. ) 0 0003 Honorable Laurie Tulley-Payne December 9 , 1993 Page 3 "Lead agencies should approve growth proposals only in areas where the RCP is being implemented. It is doubtful that projects can be considered to be consistent with the RCP in areas where the RCP is not being implemented. " (page 15-12, emphasis added. ) The above brief examples just begin to demonstrate the many inconsistencies that are in this RCP. RCP RELATIONSHIPS AND CONFLICTS MATRIX PRESENTED TO SCAG STANDING COMMITTEE ON PLANNING NOVEMBER 4, 1994 THAT WAS PREPARED BY SCAG STAFF On November 4 , 1993 SCAG staff presented to the SCAG Standing Committee on Planning a RCP RELATIONSHIPS AND CONFLICTS MATRIX, but was rejected by the committee to be placed in the draft RCP. You serve on SCAG GIs Planning Committee and I am surprised that you did not pick up on the potential conflicts in the RELATIONSHIPS AND CONFLICTS MATRIX that was presented to your committee and rejected to be part of the draft RCP on November 4 , 1993 . Potential Conflicts included in the Matrix are (and I attach a copy of t::e matrix) : 1 . Plan stresses basic industries which consume large amounts of energy and generate significant waste and air emissions . NAFTA would increase traffic in the region and might impact residents of "communities in need" if manufacturing jobs move to Mexico. 2 . Land Use and urban form goals may conflict with mobility and air quality goals . Housing and economic goals may impact open space and conservation and the environment intensive use of developable land resources can disrupt viable ecosystems. Projected populat=on increase will add increase energy and water use and productic:: of wastes and air emissions. 3 . Demand management strategies for commute and non-commute trips emphasize mobility and air quality goals . Proposed user charges ' fees would have economic impacts . Needed new passenger and air cargo airports may conflict with opens space goals and resources. Added facilities may conflict with air quality, open space and housing goals (more compact and balanced urban form. ) 000030 Honorable Laurie Tulley-Payne December 8 , 1993 Page 4 4 . Requirements on businesses may impact the economy. Long term impacts should be positive, but could initially cause business and job losses. Costly control mechanisms in cars would have economic mobility impacts on residents lacking alternatives. 5 . Additional land required for housing conflicts with protection of natural ecosystems, including open space resources . Meeting housing needs of newcomers at affordable levels could have a negative impact on existing home values. 6 . Limited resources constrain the capacity of local agencies to provide needed infrastructure and services while coping with additional growth and demand for services. 7 . Lack of financial resources could significantly impact plan implementation. Infrastructure additions would be delayed while demands grow for services, environmental protection. S . Open space and conservation policies could lead to increases in land and development costs and conflicts with housing, economic development, and other growth management goals. 9 . Importing water and developing new storage facilities have implications for habitat and species protection, and for water quality. 10 . Increasingly stringent standards for industries that discharge into water treatment plants are increasing business costs. 11. Environmental components identify objectives which place requirements on businesses and require that resources be expanded by businesses to reduce their contribution to the problem. 12 . Hazardous waste management costs could have a negative economic impact on area businesses. 13 . Transporting solid waste by rail to remote landfills has been identified as a potential solution to landfill capacity problems but could be in conflict with air quality and transportation objectives . I do hope that you will rethink your position on SCAG' s Regional Comprehensive Plan and work to protect and preserve the inherent rights, powers, and integrity of local governments, especially our cities. 00003'7 i Honorable Laurie Tulley-Payne December 8, 1993 Page 5 Sincerely, -'<' . w"C-- Frank L. Williams Executive Officer Encl cc: SANBAG Board Members Highland City Council Members Mr. Mark Pisano Mr. John Hunter Amy Glad, General Counsel The SUN Daily Bulletin Channel 64 0 00033 1 1?iO3�93 8:31 S arm OF SO CALIFO P.03 RCP RELATIONSHIPS AND CONFLICTS MATRIX Prepared by SCAG Staff Presented to SCAG Standing Committee on Plann-ng November 4 , 1993 000030 1 1.• 08,93 X8: 51 S BIN OF 50 CAL1hU r.ya { � •a w L? Cil N ++ yy T n l- M ,4a�Y•Ty g' g N = age v � .� o a ca I � V 1 tz F:E:: 4 � s 1 X X r a V S X a F I x K x a O � � � Q 000 99 0000 �� EIG OF :O CPU IFO P-05 a• o a ; N • u L a .� Yi = u L C try E k� € C u = " L c .4 N a �' N ,.� ° u u u A •- � L s a 9 ,8A C A N C C v � IX I 1`Y I IX x x x X S x x x x x 0 x x x x • x x x x >t }c U 12�Oc/�S 18: 33 S BIR OF 50 CALIFO P.86 Q - g 0 O « � x x O X X S X rC 8 x q � X try x K x s X X X 0 0 n101 0 0004' r DRAFT REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE PLAN December 1993 Staff draft released for public review prior to consideration for action by SCAG Regional Council. roUTNIRR CRUFORRIR ROOCIATM Of 4MMMMINU MISSION STATEMENT TO ENHANCE THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF ALL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIANS BY WORKING IN PARTNERSHIP WITH ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT, THE BUSINESS SECTOR, AND THE COMMUNITY AT LARGE TO MEET REGIONAL CHALLENGES AND TO RESOLVE REGIONAL DIFFERENCES. fOUTNERA CALIF CIIIA OV EAAflOCIATIOA OG 818 West Seventh Street,12th Floor a Los Angeles,California 90017-3435 (213)236-1800 • FAX(213)236-1825 November 22, 1993 Dear Member of the Southern California Community: I would like to present the Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) and the Draft Regional Mobility Element (RME). These are the latest products of SCAG's continuing efforts to provide a long range plan and decision-making framework for the region. They are intended to help meet the challenges of the region's continuing growth and economic changes. These documents have been prepared by the Staff at SCAG with substantial assistance and input from subregional organizations, County Transportation Commissions, State and federal agencies, other regional organizations, and numerous other public and private parties. They have not been endorsed or approved by any policy body. The SCAG Regional Council will hold extensive public discussion on this Draft Plan prior to its taking any action on the plan during March and April of 1994. The Draft Regional Mobility Element is the latest update of the Regional Transportation Plan required by federal and state law. It responds to the requirements of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) and the state and federal Clean Air Acts. It is the basis for more than $24 billion in federal, state and local investments in transportation that will be made over the next seven years. Without the RME, funding would be stopped until the plan is complete and meets all requirements. I encourage you to review these plans carefully. SCAG will be hosting workshops for the public in each of the thirteen subregions during the month of January. Notices will be published in local newspapers, and individual notices will be mailed on request. You are encouraged to attend these, and are also welcortle to send in your written comments. The Draft Environmental Impact Report will be released on December 10th, and will be reviewed together with these plans. There are also documents which provide technical support to the individual chapters of the RCP, and which are available upon request. Your comments will be important to SCAG in preparing the final plan documents for adoption, and your contributions will help ensure the kind of participation and support which the plan will need as we face these challenges together. Sincerely, MARK PISANO, Executive Director Gaddi Vasquez Orange County-President, Stella Mendoza City of Brawley-First Vice President, Ed Edelman Los Angeles County-Second Vice President, John Longville City of Rialto-Past President •Richard Alarcon City of Los Angeles, Richard Alatorre City of Los Angeles, Robert Bartlett City of Monrovia, George Bass City of Bell, Ronald Bates City of Los Alamitos, George Battey,Jr.City of Burbank, Hal Bernson City of Los Angeles, Walter Bowman City of Cypress, Marvin Braude City of Los Angeles, Susan Brooks City of Rancho Palos Verdes, Art Brown City of Buena Park, Yvonne Brathwaite-Burke Los Angeles County, Jim Busby,Jr.City of Victorville, Bob Buster Riverside County, Laura Chick City of Los Angeles, John Cox City of Newport Beach, Cynthia Crothers City of Moreno Valley, Elmer Digneo City of Loma Linda, Richard Dixon City of lake Forest, Douglas Drummond City of Long Beach, Jerry Eaves San Bernardino County, John Ferraro City of Los Angeles, John Flynn Ventura County, Terry Frizzel City of Riverside, Ruth Galanter City of Los Angeles, Sandra Genis City of Costa Mesa, Jackie Goldberg City of Los Angeles, Candace Haggard City of San Clemente, Garland Hardeman City of Inglewood,Robert Hargrave City of Lomita, Mike Hernandez City of Los Angeles, Nate Holden City of Los Angeles, Robert Jamison City of Artesia, Jeff Kellogg City of Long Beach, Jim Kelly City of South El Monte, Richard Kelly City of Palm Desert, Bob Kuhn City of Glendora, Abbe Land City of West Hollywood, Darlene McBane City of Agoura Hills, John Melton City of Santa Paula, Barbara Messina City of Alhambra, Judy Mikels City of Simi Valley, David Myers City of Palmdale, Kathryn Nack City of Pasadena, Bev Perry City of Brea, Gwenn Norton-Perry City of Chino Hills, Ronald Parks City of Temecula, Iry Pickier City of Anaheim, Michael Plisky City of Oxnard, Beatrice Proo City of Pico Rivera, Larry Rhinehart City of Montclair, Dick Riordan City of Los Angeles, Mark Ridley-Thomas City of Los Angeles, Albert Robles City of South Gate, Sam Sharp Imperial County, Rudy Svorinich City of Los Angeles, Bob Stone City of Bellflower, Thomas Sykes City of Walnut, Jeff Thomas City of Tustin, Laury Tully-Payne City of Highland, Joel Wachs City of Los Angeles, Rita Walters City of Los Angeles, Evelyn Wells City of Lynwood, Judy Wright City of Claremont, Zev Yaroslaysky City of Los Angeles • FOREWORD The Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan is a compilation of the summaries of Plans for the Southern California Region. Some of these are required by federal or state law; some are products of operating agencies that produce them in the course of meeting their obligations; and some respond to direction of the SCAG Regional Council to examine issues prior to determining whether to include them in the Regional Comprehensive Plan. The full text of the Regional Mobility Element is being published in a separate volume. The Draft Environmental Impact Report for this plan will be released on December 10, 1993. This draft plan was developed in cooperation with numerous agencies, including Subregions of Southern California, County Transportation Commissions, Caltrans, Metropolitan Water District, the California Energy Commission, the Bureau of Land Management of the Department of the Interior, the South Coast Air Quality Management District, the Ventura Air Pollution Control District, and other parties, both public and private. Reviews of this Draft will be scheduled throughout Southern California between January and March 1994, prior to the proposed adoption in April 1994. Written comments will be accepted throughout the public comment period which closes March 4, 1994. The preparation of this report was financed in part through grants from the United States Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration;from the United States Department of Transportation Federal Highways Administration;and from the State of California. REGIONAL COUNCIL STANDING COMMITTEES ADMINISTRATION COMMITTEE t Bob Bartlett, Monrovia - Chair John Longville, Rialto- Vice Chair Susan Brooks, Rancho Palos Verdes Jim Busby, Victorville Doug Drummond, Long Beach Garland Hardeman, Inglewood Dick Kelly, Palm Desert Judy Mikels, Simi Valley David Myers, Palmdale Bev Perry, Brea Mike Plisky, Oxnard Bea Proo, Pico Rivera Sam Sharp, Imperial County Tom Sykes, Walnut PLANNING COMMITTEE Abbe Land, West Hollywood- Chair Ron Parks, Temecula - Vice Chair George Bass, Bell Ron Bates, Los Alamitos John Cox, Newport Beach Cynthia Crothers, Moreno Valley Elmer Digneo, Loma Linda Richard Dixon, Lake Forest John Flynn, Ventura County Bob Getts, Regional Advisory Council Bob Hargrave, Lomita Mike Hernandez, Los Angeles Bob Jamison, Artesia Darlene McBane, Agoura Hills Stella Mendoza, Brawley Katie Nack, Pasadena Jeff Thomas, Tustin Laurie Tully-Payne, Highland Rita Walters, Los Angeles Evelyn Wells, Lynwood Judy Wright, Claremont Zev Yaroslaysky, Los Angeles i IMPLEMENTATION COMMITTEE _ Hal Bernson, Los Angeles- Chair Jerry Eaves, San Bernardino County- Vice Chair George Battey, Burbank Walt Bowman, Cypress Art Brown, Buena Park John Flynn, Ventura County Terry Frizzel, Riverside Candace Haggard, San Clemente Jim Kelly, South El Monte Bob Kuhn, Glendora John Longville, Rialto John Melton, Santa Paula Stella Mendoza, Brawley Barbara Messina, Alhambra Gwenn Norton-Perry, Chino Hills Larry Rhinehart, Montclair Albert Robles, South Gate Bob Stone, Bellflower %% SCAG POLICY COMMITTEES TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATIONS COMMITTEE John Cox, Newport Beach- Chair Elmer Digneo, Loma Linda - Vice Chair Jerry Allen, Western Riverside Council of Governments Subregion Bob Bartlett, Monrovia George Bass, Bell Ron Bates, Los Alamitos Bob Buster, Riverside County Transportation Commission Louis Byrd, SELAC Subregion Hal Croyts, South Bay Cities Association Subregion Terry Dipple, SGVAC Subregion Doug Drummond, Long Beach Jerry Eaves, San Bernardino County John Flynn, Ventura County Eileen Givens, Arroyo Verdugo Subregion Nancy Grasmehr, Ventura County Transportation Commission r Candace Haggard, San Clemente Garland Hardeman, Inglewood Mike Hernandez, Los Angeles Bob Jamison, Artesia Dick Kelly, Palm Desert Jim Kelly, South El Monte James Ledford, North County Subregion John Longville, Rialto Stella Mendoza, Brawley Gwen Norton-Perry, SANBAG Subregion Ron Parks, Temecula Bea Proo, Pico Rivera Larry Rhinehart, SANBAG Transportation Commission Albert Robles, South Gate Judy Wright, Claremont Joy Schlendorf, Coachella Valley Assn. of Governments Subregion Charles V. Smith, Orange County Transportation Authority Tony Tirado, IVAG Transportation Commission James Van Loben Sels, Director, CA DOT, CALTRANS Judy Wright, Claremont EX OFFICIO NON-VOTING MEMBERS Molly Bogh, City of Palmdale (PDC) Bill Compton, So. Calif. Edison Company(RAC) Judith Johnston-Weston, Burbank Media TMO(RAC) Hugo Morris, Joint Council of Teamsters#42(RAC) iii MINI ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT COMMITTEE Judy Mikels, Simi Valley- Chair Bob Hargrave, Lomita - Vice Chair Art Brown, Buena Park Bill Cole, IVAG Subregion Lillian Eaton, SANBAG Subregion Joan Feehan, Arroyo Verdugo Subregion Bob Kuhn, Glendora Patricia "Corky" Larson, CVAG Subregion Darlene McBane, Agoura Hills John Melton, Santa Paula Shirley Morton, Western Riverside Council of Governments Subregion Katie Nack, Pasadena Larry Rhinehart, Montclair Frank Roberts, North County Subregion Sam Sharp, Imperial County Nell Soto, SGVAC Subregion Tom Sykes, Walnut Laurie Tully-Payne, Highland David York, South Bay Cities Association Subregion EX OFFICIO NON-VOTING MEMBERS Gary Morris, CA Regional Water Quality Control Board Diana Palmer, So. Calif. Water Conference (RAC) Glen D. Peterson, MWD Ben Pruett, So. Calif. Gas Company(RAC) Jaime Regalado, Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs (RAC) Nancy Settle, County of Ventura (PDC) Charles R. White, California Department of Water Resources iv COMMUNITY, ECONOMIC AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE Barbara Messina, Alhambra- Chair Susan Brooks, Rancho Palos Verdes - Vice Chair George Battey, Jr., Burbank Hal Bernson, Los Angeles Walt Bowman, Cypress Jim Busby, Victorville Cynthia Crothers, Moreno Valley Joe Dawidziak, South Bay Cities Association Subregion Richard Dixon, Lake Forest t- George Fasching, SGVAC Subregion John Flynn, Ventura County Terry Frizzel, Riverside Mark Gran, IVAG Subregion Tom Hunt, CVAG Subregion Harry Knapp, Arroyo Verdugo Subregion Abbe Land, West Hollywood Sal Munoz, WRCOG Subregion E David Myers, Palmdale Gwenn Norton-Perry, Chino Hills George Pederson, North County Subregion Bev Perry, Brea Mike Plisky, Oxnard Sam Sharp, Imperial County Bob Stone, Bellflower Jeff Thomas, Tustin Marc Titel, SELAC Subregion Alfonso Urias, VCOG Subregion Rita Walters, Los Angeles Evelyn Wells, Lynwood Mal Wessel, SANBAG Subregion Zev Yaroslaysky, Los Angeles EX OFFICIO NON-VOTING MEMBERS Liz Allen, Sierra Club of California (RAC) Jim Browder, The Ethnic Coalition of SC(RAC) Magdalena Duran, National Council of La Raza (RAC) Julie Hemphill, County of San Bernardino(PDC) V TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF TABLES TABLE OF FIGURES SCAG Regional Council and Committees i Introduction xv Strategy 1-1 The integration of the regional goals with the recommendations of the individual components. The Economy 2-1 An analysis and forecast of economic trends with suggested regional strategies. Growth Management 3-1 Federally- and state-required projections of population, housing, and employment. Regional Mobility 4-1 A synopsis of the Regional Mobility Element, which meets federal and state requirements for a Regional Transporation Plan (RTP). Air Quality 5-1 A summary of federally- and state-mandated air quality plans. r Housing 6-1 A projection of housing needs and trends. Human Resources and Services 7-1 A description of current conditions with recommendations for future study and action. Finance 8-1 An evaluation of local fiscal capacity to meet needs identified in this document. Open Space and Conservation 9-1 A compilation of existing plans from major land-management agencies. Water Resources 10-1 A compilation of existing water supply agency plans. Water Quality 11-1 A compilation of current federally mandated Regional Water Quality Control plans. Energy 12-1 A disaggregation of the mandated State Energy Plan. Vii 1 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) Hazardous Waste Management 13-1 State-mandated Regional Hazardous Waste Management Plan. Integrated Solid Waste Management 14-1 An analysis of present plans and conditions. Plan Implementation 15-1 An analysis of SCAG's legal authorities with respect to required plans and recommendations for voluntary actions with respect to other components of the plan. APPENDIX A Membership of Subregions A-1 Subregional Input by Component A-3 APPENDIX B List of Acronyms and Abbreviations B-1 REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT (SEPARATE DOCUMENT) SUBREGIONAL INPUT (SEPARATE DOCUMENT) TECHNICAL APPENDICES (SEPARATE DOCUMENTS) Economy Growth Management Human Resources and Services Open Space and Conservation Water Resources Water Quality Energy Hazardous Waste Management Viii TABLE OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 2. THE ECONOMY 2-1 SCAG Region Economic Base 2-9 2-2 Los Angeles Customs District, Total Merchandise Trade 2-12 2-3 SCAG Region Population and Jobs 2-30 2-4 SCAG Region Economic Base Forecast 2-31 2-5 Employment Forecast Comparisons -- Current vs. 1989 GMP 2-32 3. GROWTH MANAGEMENT 3-1 Growth Management Goals 3-2 3-2 Median Age of U.S. and SCAG Region — 1990 and 2010 3-5 3-3 SCAG Draft Base Forecast for Population, Housing, and Employment -- Subregions 3-7 3-4 SCAG Draft Base Forecast for Population, Housing, and Employment — Counties 3-8 3-5 Preliminary Draft Subregional Forecasts, 2015 3-25 ,= 3-6 Preliminary Draft County Forecasts, 2015 3-26 4. REGIONAL MOBILITY 4-1 RCP and RME Goals 4-2 4-2 RME Goals and Subgoals 4-3 4-3 Federal and State Legally Required Objectives (Performance Targets): Mobility and Air Quality 4-4 4-4 Comparison of 2010 Emissions Goals to RME Alternatives' Emissions 4-7 4-5 Mix of Strategies 4-7 4-6 RME Alternatives Compared for Performance 4-12 4-7 Reasonably Available Funding Criteria 4-13 4-8 Third-Tier Transit System Expansion 4-14 4-9 Market Incentives/Pricing Mechanisms 4-16 4-10 Federal and State Transportation Control Measures Requirements 4-20 4-11 1993 Regional Mobility Element Cost-Revenue Summary — 1991-2010 4-23 5. AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT 5-1 1987 Baseline Emissions by Pollutant 5-7 5-2 Ambient Air Quality Standards 5-12 5-3 Federal and California Air Quality Attainment Status by Pollutant 5-14 5-4 Status of Air Quality Plans in SCAG Region 5-16 5-5 Implementation Strategies in Existing Air Quality Plans 5-17 6. HOUSING 6-1 Affordable Housing -- The Many Players 6-27 ix f • . 9. OPEN SPACE AND CONSERVATION - 9-1 Holland Plant Communities in the SCAG Portion of the Southwest Ecoregion — Summary by County 9-26 10. WATER RESOURCES 10-1 Area and Population of the MWD Service Area within the SCAG Region — 1990 10-5 10-2 Population Projections MWD Service Area - 1990 and 2010 10-6 10-3 Member Agencies of Metropolitan Water District of Southern California 10-7 10-4 1990 Retail Water Prices in Southern California 10-12 10-5 Projected Increases in Retail Prices — 1990-2010 10-13 10-6 Urban Water Demands in MWD Service Area - 1990 and 2010 10-14 10-7 Agricultural Water Demand MWD Service Area - 1990 and 2010 10-16 10-8 Actual and Projected Water Demand in the MWD Service Area — 1990 and 2010 10-18 10-9 Existing and Potential Water Supply for the MAID Service Area — 2010 10-19 10-10 Water Supply and Demand Balance for the MWD Service Area - 2010 10-22 10-11 Water Supply and Demand — Water Districts Ouside MWD in SCAG Region 1990 10-48 10-12 Water Supply and Demand — Water Districts Outside MWD in SCAG Region 1995 10-49 10-13 Water Supply and Demand — Water Districts Outside MWD in SCAG Region 2000 10-50 10-14 Water Supply and Demand — Water Districts Outside MWD in SCAG Region 2010 10-51 10-15 Water Supply and Demand — Water Districts Outside MWD in SCAG Region 2020 10-52 :12. ENERGY 12-1 Summary of ER-92 Electricity Demand Forecasts 12-9 12-2 Summary of Southern Gas Planning Area Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts 12-10 12-3 Summary of Total Petroleum Product Demand 12-11 12-4 Summary of Demand-Side Resource Additions 12-13 :12-5 Summary of Cost-Effective Electrical System Generation Additions 12-14 :12-6 Summary of Natural Gas Emission Projections 12-16 112-7 Summary of Transportation Infrastructure 12-17 112-8 Summary of Petroleum Combustion Emissions 12-18 112-9 Intermediate Options 12-21 112-10 Energy Savings and Displaced Emissions: 2010 12-27 112-11 Projected Reduction of Water Consumption 12-29 11112-12 Projected Diversion of Solid Waste 12-29 13. HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGEMENT 1.3-1 County Fair Share Obligations to Meet 2010 Demand for Waste Capacity 13-10 X TABLE OF FIGURES FIGURES PAGE 1. STRATEGY 1-1 Goals of the Regional Comprehensive Plan 1-4 1-2 RCP Strategic Goals and Component Strategies 1-5 1-3 Cross Cutting Issues of the Regional Comprehensive Plan 1-11 1-4 The Continuum of Policy and Implementation Modes 1-19 2. THE ECONOMY 2-1 Alternative Measures of Real Personal Income — SCAG Region 2-5 2-2 Manufacturing: The Effects of Productivity— SCAG Region Output and Employment 2-10 2-3 Defense Sector's Share of Regional Economy 2-11 2-4 Regionl Employment Grew Despite Defense Cuts— SCAG Region Defense Jobs and Share of Total U.S. Employment 2-11 2-5 Growth of Exports Through L.A. Customs District 2-13 2-6 Growth of Imports Through L.A. Customs District 2-14 2-7 Los Angeles Customs District — Share of U.S. Merchandise Trade 2-15 2-8 Tourism and Entertainment Sector Overtakes Defense 2-16 2-9 Tourism and Entertainment — SCAG Region Share of U.S. Jobs 2-17 2-10 Apparel Jobs in the SCAG Region 2-18 2-11 Growth of Employment in SCAG Region 2-20 2-12 Yearly Average Unemployment in the SCAG Region 2-21 2-13 Taxable Sales in the SCAG Region, 1980-1992 2-21 2-14 Total Valuation of New Building Permits 2-22 2-15 Median Sale Price of Existing Single-Family Homes 2-23 2-16 SCAG Manufacturing Employment As a Percent of U.S. Manufacturing Employment 2-27 2-17 Difference Between SCAG and U.S. Unemployment Rate 2-33 3. GROWTH MANAGEMENT 3-1 Population, Employment, and Housing Growth — SCAG Region 1970-2010 3-3 3-2 Annual Average Components of Population Growth 3-4 3-3 Distribution of Population by Ethnicity - SCAG Region 1990 and 2010 3-4 3-4 Distribution of Employment by Sector - SCAG Region 1990 and 2010 3-5 3-5 Percent Change of Population, Housing, and Employment, 1990-2000 -- Subregions 3-9 3-6 Percent Change of Population, Housing, and Employment, 2000-2010 -- Subregions 3-10 3-7 SCAG Region - 1990-2010 Housing Density 3-11 3-8 SCAG Region - 1990-2010 Employment Density 3-12 3-9 Population, Employment, and Housing Growth - SCAG Region, 2015 and 2020 3-24 4. REGIONAL MOBILITY 4-1 1990 E&F Levels of Service 4-6 4-2 Proposed Mixed Flow Projects 4-8 4-3 1990 Existing and Proposed High-Occupancy Vehicle Lanes 4-9 Xi 4­4 1993 Existing and Proposed Urban & Intercity Rail Lines 4-10 4-5 1993 Existing and Proposed Commuter Rail Lines 4-11 5. AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT 5-1. Air Basins and Air Districts in the SCAG Region 5-5 5-2 1987 Baseline Emissions by Pollutant 5-6 5-3 2010 Emissions without Plan by Pollutant 5-8 54 2010 Emissions with Plan by Pollutant 5-9 5-5 South Coast Air Basin — 2010 Volatile Organic Compound Emissions 5-10 54i South Coast Air Basin — 2010 Nitrogen Oxide Emissions 5-10 5-7 Ventura County — 2005 Volatile Organic Compound Emissions 5-11 5-8 Ventura County — 2005 Nitrogen Oxide Emissions 5-11 5-9 Peak 1-hr Ozone Readings for SCAG Region 5-13 6. HOUSING 6-1 Household with any Housing Problem, 1990 - Southern California 6-2 6-2 Median Value per Square Foot of Resale Homes 6-4 6-3 Population and Housing Unit Trends and Projections 6-5 64. SCAG Draft Regional Forecast, 1990 and 2010 6-9 6-5 Population & Housing Unit Trends, 1980-1993 6-11 6-6 Households by Age 6-12 6-7 Household Growth by Age 6-13 6-8 Distribution of Householders by Race/Ethnic Origin — 1990, 2000, and 2010 6-14 6-9 Households Making Excessive Payments for Housing 6-15 6-10 Moderate and Severe Overcrowding by Tenure 6-16 6-11 Where More than Half of all Renters Pay Over a Third of Their Income for Housing 6-17 6-12 Areas Concentrated with Overcrowded Households 6-18 6-13 Level of Home Ownership by Age - 1980 & 1990 6-20 6-14 Percent Owner Occupied 6-21 6-15 Cost Component of a New Single-Family Home 6-23 6-16 Redevelopment Housing Resources Available in SCAG Region 6-29 6-17 Affordable Housing — Costs Differences Between Areas 6-32 6-18 Housing Stock over 30 Years of Age 6-34 6-19 Housing by Age, 1990 6-35 6-20 Median Household Income 6-37 6-21 Ethnicity by Income 6-38 9. OPEN SPACE AND CONSERVATION 9-1 Federal Administration 9-12 9-2 Land Administration 9-13 9-3 Developed Land, Current 9-14 9-4 Developed Land, Build Out 9-15 9-5 Regionally Significant Minerals 9-24 9-6 Plant Communities At Risk 9-25 9-7 Public Lands Current & Potential Preservation 9-27 X# 10. WATER RESOURCES 10-1 MWD Service Area 10-4 10-2 Urban Per Capita Water Use — MWD Service Area 10-15 10-3 Regional Water Demands — MWD Service Area 10-17 10-4 Demand and Supplies in 2010 — Average Year Condition 10-20 10-5 Demand and Supplies in 2010 — Minimum Supplies Condition 10-21 10-6 The Integrated Resource Planning Process 10-42 10-7 Water Agencies in the SCAG Region Outside Metropolitan Water District 10-45 11. WATER QUALITY 11-1 Major Surface Water Features 11-5 11-2 California Regional Water Quality Control Boards in the SCAG Region 11-11 11-3 Partial List of Agencies with Water Quality Planning and Management 11-13 Responsibilities in the SCAG Region 12. ENERGY 12-1 SCAG 1990 Residential Energy Use 12-4 12-2 SCAG 1990 Commercial and Industrial Energy Use 12-4 12-3 California 1990 Electricity Consumption 12-5 12-4 SCAG Electricity Resources 12-6 12-5 California 1990 Natural Gas Consumption 12-6 12-6 California 1990 Petroleum Consumption 12-7 13. HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGEMENT 13-1 Generation of Hazardous Waste in Southern California in 1990 13-6 13-2 Location of Facilities Receiving Hazardous Waste from Region — 1990 13-7 r 14. INTEGRATED SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT 14-1 Elements of Countywide Integrated Waste Management Plans 14-6 14-2 Solid Waste Generated in SCAG Region by County — 1990 14-10 14-3 Solid Waste Generation in the SCAG Region — 1990 14-11 14-4 Solid Waste Diversion in the SCAG Region — 1990 14-12 14-5 Solid Waste Disposal in the SCAG Region — 1990 14-12 14-6 Tons of Solid Waste Diverted and Disposed by Category in the SCAG Region -- 1990 14-13 14-7 Permitted Waste Capacity in SCAG Region by County — 1990 14-15 14-8 Years of Remaining Permitted Landfill Capacity — By County, 1990 14-16 14-9 Proposed Waste-by-Rail Projects in SCAG Region 14-18 xiii INTRODUCTION This plan represents a major departure from all previous planning for Southern California in several respects. First, it is comprehensive. Second, it is the product of a joint, multi-agency effort. In addition to SCAG, other regional agencies including in particular the Bureau of Land Management, the Metropolitan Water District and the California Energy Commission, thirteen subregions' and the local governments within the SCAG region have all contributed to its preparation. Third, it is only the first in what will be a series of plans, representing continuing updates and refinements to this plan as conditions evolve and understanding improves. And finally, it explicitly recognizes that the "horizon date" of 2010 (2015 for the Regional Mobility Element), toward which the plan is focused, is only an interim date. Conditions will continue to evolve beyond that date, and this plan therefore is only the groundwork toward that more distant future. This document is also a first in that it sets a broad set of goals for the region, and identifies strategies for agencies at all levels to use in guiding their decision-making toward implementation of the proposals. Southern California has never, in the past, agreed on such goals, and their adoption by SCAG and its constituent members represents an important step forward in defining a regional identity toward which all can work. It is an identity which has growing acceptance, an acceptance in part due to the shared understandings which have come about as a result of participation in the process of developing the plan. SCAG has recently undergone a significant transformation as an agency. In February of 1992, the General Assembly adopted new bylaws that expanded the Executive Committee from 23 to 70 members, and renamed it the Regional Council. Further, it required that future SCAG planning be comprehensive, and directed such planning be undertaken in a "bottom-up, interactive" mode. This plan responds to that mandate. See pages xiii-xiv for list and map of the Subregions. A list of the constituent members of the subregions is found in Appendix A. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 0 Page xv • Introduction Subregions were identified, either as existing organizations of local governments, or brought together with SCAG assistance to provide input. This input is reflected throughout the plan, and forms the basis of the approach, which recognizes both the commonalities and the diversity of the subregions in meeting the challenges of growth and change in this region. This plan is designed to meet a number of purposes. It is intended to serve the region as a general guide to the growth and changes that can be anticipated during the next 15 to 20 years. It provides a general view of the plans of the various regional agencies that will affect local governments, or that respond to the significant issues facing Southern California. And, it summarizes the plans which describe how the region will meet certain federal and state requirements with respect to Transportation, Growth Management, Air Quality, Housing, Hazardous Waste Management, and Water Quality Management. It is not a proscription for local governments. Rather, it is a comprehensive overview of the region, focusing on its growth and problems, and it suggests a strategy that local governments may elect to use, which should assist them in meeting these challenges. This strategy is based on the recognition that all of these problems and issues are interconnected, and none can be meaningfully dealt with in isolation from the others. Hence, it is comprehensive and treats Southern California as a metropolitan system. It also derives from the concept of "bottom-up interactive" planning. It is a dialogue between the local governments which make up SCAG on the one hand, and the federal and state requirements on the other. This dialogue forms the basis for the proposals and policies contained in the plan. Yet, it is broader than just a response to these mandates: it suggests strongly that none of these mandates will be able to be met unless the region looks at its problems as a whole, and elects to address all of them simultaneously. Concentrating on a few issues would only mean that others, just as critical, will go ignored until they too reach a crisis. With planning and foresight, it is possible to avoid this type of crisis-response planning, which is both far more costly in the long-run and far less effective. The plan is also a living document; it is intended to be continuously under revision and update so that it stays current, and provides a response that is both long-range, strategic and responsive to a constantly evolving situation. With respect to the specific requirements, SCAG has the following mandates: SCAG is designated by the federal government as the Region's Metropolitan Planning Organization and mandated to maintain a continuous, comprehensive, and coordinated transportation planning process resulting in a Regional Transportation Plan and a Regional Transportation Improvement Program pursuant to 23 U.S.C. §134(8)-(h), 49 U.S.C. §1607(f)-(g) et seq., 23 C.F.R. §450, and 49 C.F.R. §613. SCAG is also the designated Regional Transportation Planning Agency, and as such is responsible for both preparation of the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and Regional Transportation Improvement Program (RTIP) under California Government Code Section 65080. SCAG is responsible for developing the demographic projections and integrated land use, housing, employment, and transportation programs, measures, and strategies portions of the South Coast Air Quality Management Plan, pursuant to California Health and Safety Code Section 40460(b)-(c). SCAG is also designated under 42 U.S.C. §7504(a) as a Co-Lead Agency for air quality planning for the Central Coast and Southeast Desert Air Basin District. Page xvi • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan • Introduction SCAG is responsible under the Federal Clean Air Act for determining Conformity of Projects, Plans and Programs to the Air Plan, pursuant to 42 U.S.C. §7506. SCAG is the authorized regional agency for Inter-Governmental Review of programs proposed for federal financial assistance and direct development activities, pursuant to Presidential Executive Order 12,372 (replacing A-95 Review). SCAG reviews, pursuant to Public Resources Code Sections 21083 and 21087, Environmental Impact Reports of projects of regional significance for consistency with regional plans [California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines Sections 15206 and 15125(b)]. Pursuant to 33 U.S.C. §1288(a)(2) (Section 208 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act), SCAG is the authorized Areawide Waste Treatment Management Planning Agency. SCAG is responsible for preparation of the Regional Housing Needs Assessment, pursuant to California Government Code Section 65584(a). SCAG is responsible (with the San Diego Association of Governments and the Santa Barbara County/Cities Area Planning Council) for preparing the Southern California Hazardous Waste Management Plan pursuant to California Health and Safety Code Section 25135.3. The three partner agencies contributed to the preparation of this plan. The Water Resources chapter was largely prepared by the Metropolitan Water District, the largest of the water suppliers in the region, together with the other major suppliers. They are responsible for the provision of adequate supplies of safe water for the residents of the region. The Energy component was prepared by the California Energy Commission, the state agency responsible for long-range energy planning for the entire state. This chapter is a disaggregation of the state plan governing the SCAG region, and was prepared specially for SCAG by the Commission. The Open Space component was prepared by the United States Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management (BLM) as a composite of existing plans from federal, state, and regional agencies responsible for land management. There are two types of components in the plan: those that respond directly to federal or state mandates, and those that are included in the interest of comprehensiveness. These latter are indispensable to the understanding of the former: the mandates can only be addressed if all the issues, especially the economic future of the region, are understood and accounted for. Without such a background, planning for transportation or air quality or housing rests on a very unstable foundation, especially since the Region is undergoing the most dramatic economic restructuring since the end of World War II. It must be clearly noted that the inclusion of any component or issue in this plan in no way changes the mandates, or adds to them. These additions are intended to serve only as guidance and a framework to inform decisions on the mandates, on local plans, and on governance in general as it seeks to improve the quality of life for all the regions residents. Y This Regional Comprehensive Plan document is the summary of a great quantity of analysis of conditions in, and projections for, the region. Most of the RCP chapters are excerpted from more detailed analyses which are found in separate reports from which are available to any who wish to see them. The thirteen subregions SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page xvii • Introduction of the SCAG region have prepared individual input documents, reports and in some cases, subregional plans. These have been used to develop and support the RCP proposals and recommendations, and are referenced throughout the document. They are also available to any person seeking further information about a particular subregion. For copies of either the background documents or the subregional documents, please contact SCAG directly. Finally, it must be stated that while this document contains the issues and concerns that the staff believes to be important. The final format of the document is still subject to continued evolution. The Standing Committee on Planning will make a final recommendation to the Regional Council on the format, in accordance with the following Resolution, adopted January 7, 1993: "The RCP, with the involvement of all the SCAG subregions, shall incorporate as separate elements the mandatory components (Mobility, Growth Management, Housing, Air Quality, Water Quality and Hazardous Waste) with the remaining components, including solid waste, either being incorporated as relevant into the above required elements or incorporated as separate elements as appropriate and justified and approved by the Executive Committee (Regional Council). The RCP, including the appropriate and approved components is scheduled for completion by December 1993." Since this resolution was adopted, the Regional Council has extended the date for plan adoption which is now tentatively scheduled for April 1994. A note on Subregional Input Input has been received from all subregions. It is available in its unedited form to all who would like to review it. In addition, each chapter in this document reflects this input, and where subregions have either proposed ideas or projects that have been included in the plan, or where they have supported staff recommendations, this is noted in a footnote. Occasionally, there may be a divergence between subregions or between a subregion and the SCAG staff. This, too, is noted. Pagexviii• December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan a • Introduction. Subregions of Southern California Arroyo Verdugo Coachella Valley Association of Governments Imperial Valley Association of Governments City of Los Angeles North Los Angeles County Orange County San Bernardino Associated Governments San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities South Bay Cities Association South East Los Angeles County Ventura Council of Governments West Side Cities Western Riverside Council of Governments SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 •_Page xix • Introduction ZOO' M? H 7 U •- U r O N m C U t H U v7 cn cn 3 3 Z O F� May T Cl, W - U /►/r'1 � 6� Q U � O C, C7 +-• C m Q Q H O 2 C Page xx • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan r F STRATEGY • Introduction and Purpose • The Vision • A Decision-Making Framework for Implementation 4 • Caveats A. INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE This document contains Southern California's first ever comprehensive overview of the issues and opportunities facing the entire region. In a major break with past practice, it places locally defined goals on equal terms with mandates imposed by state and federal law. Thus, in addition to responding to mandates in transportation, air quality, housing, growth forecasts, water quality, and hazardous waste management, the plan places a comparable emphasis on issues that local initiative has determined to be of high priority. First and foremost, this includes the economy. The others are human resources, finance, open space, water resources, and energy. This Strategy has been designed to tie all of these issues together. The purpose of this document is to create a framework for regional and local decision-making that will ensure such decision-making is consistent and supportive of regional as well as local goals. These are to be found in the following chapters, which are mostly summaries of more detailed documents. Thus, this document will serve as a guide and advisor to local officials seeking to determine the best for their communities by ensuring that their decisions are consonant with those of other communities as well as with broader regional trends and SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-1 Chapter One • Strategy actions. It is important to emphasize that the plan relies for its implementation on locally made decisions. While providing some guidance in this direction, its main function is to lay out the choices available to local governments and identifies the implications of those choices on both local and regional development. This framework is more fully defined below in Section B, The Vision, which sets out goals and themes for the planning process, leading to a new approach to decision-making. A si=nd major innovation of this plan is the development of a new set of relationships among the regional planning agencies, and their constituent local governments. This relationship has been built on subregional org�mizationst, which are groups of cities together with unincorporated areas which have a common historical or geographical identity. Many of these subregions were newly formed for this purpose, to coordinate the expression of local needs and plans for inclusion in the planning process and to guarantee recognition of the unique needs and differences among each of these subregions. B. THE VISION There are several critically important trends which lie at the heart of the development of the great urban regions of the United States. For many reasons, including its age, location, climate, history, and geography, the Southern California metropolis and its environs constitute what may be described as the leading edge of urbanization in the late 20th century, and will continue to do so for some time to come. Among these trends are those of immigration/migration from throughout the world, accelerating patterns of economic change, social stresses, as well as environmental and resource challenges on an unprecedented scale. Blessed with a climate that has not only attracted millions to the "Southem California life-style" but that also resulted in the "discovery" of smog, the region has been forced to deal earlier and faster than any others with the impacts of virtually unrestrained growth on a an environment of limited resources. Most other metropolitan regions (both in the U.S. and abroad) have either suffered in silence (e.g. Eastern Europe) or had many of their environmental problems solved for them after the impact of economic changes (e.g. Pittsburgh). Southern California is unique in its attempt to do so while maint4ining a growth economy', not to mention the sheer the scale of the region'. Although currently suffering from the economic effects of a massive scaling back of defense production, the overall impact is significantly less, proportionately, than was the closure of the steel mills in Pittsburgh in the 1960s, or the loss of the textile industry in New England in the 1950s. This is due to the variety and strength of the many industries that support the region. Redirecting the economy to meet the needs of current and future residents is the paramount goal of the region. Although heavily dependent on outside resources and events, there is much the region can and should do Dili its ow n to take over management of its own affairs. The Economic component of the Plan provides a ' These subregions listed in the Introduction, pp.xix-xx. See SCAG,Regional Development Guide 1982, and the SCAG Growth Management Plan, 1989. At over 15 million inhabitants, Southern California qualifies as a "megacity", along with cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Mexico City, Tokyo and Shanghai, to name just a few. Page 1-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan - 0 Chapter One • Strategy number of suggestions in this direction, and provides, it is hoped, the basis for a sustained dialogue leading to action to meet the economic challenges to the region. In particular, this document focuses on three broad economic goals for the region, goals, which are used to also direct the goals and actions proposed for each of the other components of this plan. These are the creation of new wealth within the region from primary industries, developing import substitution in an open and free trading environment, and improving the standard of living for all. 1 . GOALS FOR THE REGION Previous plans for Southern California have been built around the assumption of virtually unending economic growth and prosperity. However, the recent downturn, especially its length and severity, has called this assumption into question. Local governments will have to come together to coordinate their actions in a concerted effort, and work directly with the private sector to create the kind of economic growth previously assumed. This document is intended to provide the focus for discussion and action to reinvigorate the economy. But just focusing on the economy is not sufficient to meet the needs of the region. Social disparities and inequities are leading toward social disruption and dislocation, which if not addressed, could well lead toward a repeat and even spread of the civil unrest experienced during the spring of 1992. The goals set forth below are the first attempt to address the social and economic inequities and the geographical isolation of communities throughout the region. The SCAG Regional Council hopes these goals will serve as the basis for further discussions and the development of programs to redress the conditions that led to them. To guide the decision-making process, this document proposes the adoption of regional goals. These will be goals for all of Southern California (see Figure 1-1). They represent the many needs and concerns that must be addressed simultaneously by the region to avoid creating further imbalances between the needs of the community at-large and the implementation of the various aspects of the plan. Local governments will need to build a consensus around these goals so that concerted action will be generated that will build the future envisioned for Southern California. The Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) is a framework for decision-making for local governments, assisting them to work together through their subregional organizations, in order to meet federal and state mandates, consistent with our agreed upon regional goals. Each of the chapters in the document seeks to contribute to the achievement of the goals set out below (see Figure 1-2). Where possible, all three goals are addressed simultaneously, so that the enhancement of one goal is not achieved at the expense of others. Briefly, each of the chapters seeks to find ways to improve the economy in its area of concern while at the same time enhancing the environment and improving the equity of the distribution of benefits. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-3 Chapter One • Strategy Figure 1-1. GOALS OF THE REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE PLAN ;standard of Living Quality of Life Equity • Increase real per capita • Provide adequate and affordable • Provide fair and equitable income for all residents. housing to all on a timely and access to employment and equitable basis. the multitude of other • Increase proportionately resources throughout the the region's share of • Enhance and maintain air, land, region. employment in sectors open space, and water quality expected to grow rapidly throughout the region. • Provide fair and equitable over the next two decades. access to regional • Define a process which safely governance. • Attain sustained economic and efficiently handles hazardous growth in order to reach waste. • Recognize, encourage and and maintain an average support ethnic, racial, and unemployment rate which • Provide adequate transportation cultural diversity. is below the national rate. for all residents while meeting clean air goals. • Invest in the human capital of the region, particularly in health, education, job training, recreational and cultural activities. • Enhance personal safety and security throughout the region. • Maintain a sense of community and recognize the value of neighborhood and distinct localities in the region. 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E c C - N J "y 'C ao -U G C 7 vpi > co "m y LL H ° a� E � N 0 H ° o c o ro E c 67 m 0 C `° aj D E v o n o D O) U r c O ° °> -0 (n N C y C C ; `o y O y y LO d O ep y y U a) R Q o ? "a M ° E °' a ° aci c 0 a7 _� y a_o O L !_' — N m C U C U � f0 •� J CU O O U (V �CV) w C e0 O _ C 7 y�j M O m fC E L C r >, CC m US � a M v � � ; � � � v d v < � Q ro � ci • W -j H C Z w U D j • CL 0 U Q to O 0 � CC } a , G. N Q = W W C7 < H UJ Q Cn LU Q Q Z Q Q V L—CO-) _ _ x O w Z 3 -- - A M1.r V) C O a y A •�. cl O y 4 UJ m o .� a CD U O C U CL Y Q E f° E • y d � � T cm U O U C <p r+ d - w ♦+ LLf U o O LL o cc y y C J LL Y � c o � co � y > Q } E o o O F- CD � o > c J a) Q c > a z CD d > E cvo .J y a E w E E u C7 w Z CCD E > c C m Y J y d f9 Y LL y m E Cam' ; O E «+ y L+ y � m E o c cv z E E c Q n� (U E U T d C d U O O V D U to U (0 cz z cc • Z _O LU w H Z F- Q Q Q Z J V a.U � � V Chapter One • Strategy 2. MEETING THE GOALS Much of the planning in this region (as elsewhere) has been based on maximizing a narrow range of goals and objectives without reference to the broader impact of such actions on other aspects of life and the environment within the region. Transportation has been viewed as an end unto itself, planning for mobility (with some reference to air quality), but with little real evaluation of its broader impacts on such areas as the physical environment, housing, personal income, etc. Similarly, new development has been promoted to meet housing needs and the revenue requirements of local governments, but rarely are the impacts on other issues such as transportation, utility costs, social issues, or health care, fully evaluated. The result of this approach is frequently a duplication of services, and an over-emphasis on single issues to the detriment of others just as important (witness the huge investment in transportation through federal, state and local funding which occurs at the same time that local governments are forced to severely reduce expenditures in education, health, safety, etc.) The RCP declares the region's recognition of the fact that single purpose planning distorts both the goals and the implementation of plans. Given the depth of the crisis presently facing the region, only a broadly based approach that supports all the functions of government and governance can be expected to succeed. Single- purpose governments (transportation commissions, air districts, water districts) will need to fit their plans into this more broadly conceived regional decision-making structure in order to achieve conformity and consistency, and therefore, the ability to implement their plans. To put it another way, to meet the goals of this plan and the mandates on the region, new financial priorities will have to be established for all levels of government. Government bodies will need to be able to use their funds more flexibly to meet these priorities, rather than having their priorities fixed by funding availability. Not only does present practice mean that certain critical issues may go unaddressed for lengthy periods until new funding authority is gained, but the costs of dealing with the issue may be significantly higher when it finally is addressed, due to the impact of the delay itself. Finally, the limitations of categorical planning and spending also mean that reasonable alternatives are not addressed because they cross "turf' boundaries. 3. THEMES There are three major themes that this plan seeks to promote in the vision for Southern California. These themes run throughout the plan as the thread that ties together the various strands of actions recommended in the many separate sections, and together form the core around which this strategy is built. The first theme is community. Community is, at its most fundamental level, the expression of commonthe concern, and acceptance of the responsibility for the shared aspects of life. It is most noticeable and effectively expressed at the local level, at the level of neighborhood, around a school, or church or other geographic/institutional organizing entity. For much of Southern California, the expression of community needs strengthening. Links between the people living together need to further develop so that they can make use of the strengths which come from acting around shared concerns. These shared concerns are frequently the same issues that have been developed as components of this plan—housing, transportation, air quality, or human development. The legal structure of our society may establish the specific boundaries within which these problems are managed, and the region itself is frequently the appropriate analytical framework for evaluating our progress. But it is through actions and organization at the community level that real Page 1-8 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter One • Strategy involvement and sound answers to our problems will need to be found. Few can relate to the entire region of Southern California. Instead we speak of belonging to a neighborhood or section of our city or county which often has no legal status, yet is more meaningful to us than is the legally defined entity in which it exists. There is no contradiction here. Our cities and the region are made up of thousands of these communities, and our political and economic development are expressions of the success or failure of our communities. The plan recognizes this fact, and suggests a number of tools that can be applied through local government to strengthen our communities, and conversely, ways in which communities can view the broader world to improve the functioning of local governments and the region as a whole. The concept of community is developed in the plan in many different ways. It relates to the economic clusters which the region will foster. It relates to communities in need which the region must address. It relates to growth management policies which both seek to protect existing neighborhoods and concentrate the new development where possible around transportation nodes. The second theme is that of local goal-oriented responsibility for planning and implementation. Using the concept of community in its broadest sense, Southern California must develop a new approach to meet the goals set out in this plan and their relationship to the external dictates that are imposed on the region by federal and state requirements. Working through a new set of relationships between public agencies, the private sector and the public at large, this frame-work shows some of the steps that must be taken in order to assume responsibility for our own destiny. Toward this end, the plan proposes three goals: raising the standard of living, enhancing the quality of life, and fostering equity so that all can share in the opportunities offered. These are high ideals, and demand much of us, but ultimately, the responsibility falls on each of us individually to join in the community efforts which then comprise the region. The plan is based on making use of the powers of existing local institutions, cities, counties, special districts, and associations of these units. But over over the past two or more decades, these have shown that they lack C the powers and capacity to fully meet the demands of growth and change in a region of the size of Southern California. Problems have reached a scale that simply defies the powers of municipal or county level institutions, while regional structures are so distant from the individual that they lack the legitimacy needed in the eyes of most to serve as implementation vehicles. This plan proposes a shift in the pattern of institutional relationships. Instead of one which relies on hierarchical, top-down, mandated actions, a new, a more associative, consensually based emphasis on shared responsibilities is outlined. This shift in the locus of decision-making from "above" to within the community has already begun to occur, although the theory and practice are only imperfectly understood and developed. The region has already signalled its desire to pursue this direction, and must now work to develop the institutions, the arrangements among them, and the mechanisms for assuring their responsibility for powers now vested in the "top-down" hierarchical structure. The third theme is the ability of the region to organize itself to handle the complex tasks ahead. The region will need to assemble the tools, skills, and organizations needed to effectively manage our destiny in an era of increasing globalization of the economy, communications, social ties and environmental issues. New relationships, both formal and informal, must be forged to strengthen the public and private sectors, and to create new partnerships between them. These would include the proposed industrial clusters which will require new forms of coordination between business, research, labor and government (Chapter 2, the Economy) and advanced transportation (Chapter 6, Mobility); the new initiatives proposed to manage pollution-generating activities (Chapter 5, Air Quality); the focus on people, their skills and needs, such as the proposal for "sister-community" relationships (Chapter 7, Human Resources and Services), the planning and financial partnerships between government, business and non-profit organizations needed to provide SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-9 Chapter One • Strategy adequate housing (Chapter 8, Housing), the approaches suggested for preservation and management of natural resource areas (Chapter 9, Open Space), and the new implementation approaches (Chapter 15, Plan Implementation). 4. RELATIONSHIPS AMONG RCP COMPONENTS The goals shown in Figure 1-1 provide a way for the region to create relationships and resolve conflicts among the different components of the RCP. Previous planning for the region has been largely single-issue, and current mandates only require plans that address single topics. As yet, no requirement exists for a broad assessment of the region and its future. The SCAG Regional Council wishes to emphasize that from the perspective of local government, these individual functional plans are experienced simultaneously within a given geography. Thus, there are components for air, water and waste, but none for Southeast Los Angeles. The subregional planning process is intended resolve this problem over time. However, since the region's plans continue to be prepared in response to federal and state mandates in functional components, some new process must be created to resolve conflicts and set priorities among them. Southern California is already strongly aware of the relationship between transportation and air quality, which has been the subject of intensive planning and action since the mid-1970s, and even before. Less recognized are other relationships such as those between job location and housing; or the relationship between local control of development and the lack of affordable housing in the region; or the demands of the economy and the growing weaknesses of the educational and vocational systems. In this first effort to create a new kind of planning process, the relationship among RCP components will be established by making sure that each of the functional components addresses a set of six over-arching strategic issues. The Strategic goals are intended to serve the region by guiding it toward consensus on important issues. Each of the individual components of this decision-making framework has been developed and evaluated, both at the local and at the regional level, and measured against these goals to assure compatibility. Evaluation against the goals is the assurance that each component will address the six shared issues listed in Figure 1-3. The focus of this effort will initially be to ensure that the various components of the RCP are brought into concert, that gaps identified are filled, that conflicts in goals and plans are resolved, and that the jurisdictional problems that lead to duplication or performance gaps are remedied. Page 1-10 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan A c m - f0 1 N c U m m � C Y Q E •jc w y cr Q) W a c EL c ° do 5 E o 'er d ccv .0 O) Z E o ° � ea y U — 2 c U Q L o �0 0 cm CD 0 O 3 .0 CD c > ° o ° f° o v v E ° .� > o c ., 3 . 0 0 co O Q) c > CL C 7 y 3 ;°, ` L O. 0 is .� a �? d .X O 0 in P4 2. ° aco E o `° CD o, ` m 0 v y .« ? w t � E .- ;? CL) o yc 30 � c � c V J O y m w .0 Q7 C Vl -0 U C C U y L O c U y fCy y m — C y Y Ql be 0 (A IA C 1n y y c o 0 y a U `p d) W � Vjep EE ' a . °-' ° � °' ayi c > > cc > Q > c W U ` 7 > — �-' ` Y C Q V) C C m y .c y d V1 Cl) E o E ° > E' °am nE' c c c w a� a� C Z c = C ayccE oE � � c e0 :% '«- a ae� ° aD C E 'D ° L 0 . «- C W (n y L N m �`+ >y 'L' O Q Q L C N j w O W 3 = CC �voo a+ � ~' d � a� c t- o A «• �' (L y o. 0uE Ccc m o w00E >- - W e ai c °: C C C : °' y - n u � W c > fp tv y c O U > t° •• 3 y c 0 C C o C —Q E .O C j C p D •U CD y O > O U •� > > N 7 L t0 C ay+ .c :.= U C J a c c c o Y .- .0 -0 y c > '� o ? c 3 C o Q E `° ° c a " c ° c W CD ° v aUi ° ? x ` H o n a) �O Q a) y c 0 y y 'a+ U) C C a m O O y C C E L a 0 .0 w C _ = Q) y y Q a+ 3 y N C U M a) 6!7 3 a•+ m0 � � oaD oyCa� .. cy � 3 Egg CZ o (D c y E :«� o c c d m d a U 0 ' U U W co D o c a `� E - y D c ° o d ° W 0 a �, C co >,C U 'm y ''' O Q O 7 y ; .h Y N C C O j E O c c L O L O > tC0 N a) C O co D U V E U o- O E > O a) U rn y C y E C p y �p U 3 'L' C `O L O L �„ of U •«+ l0 f0 N O C U f0 O •C � y E 00 .. 3 ° `-° Eck; YcY °' c � c—>' ` E 7 co O c °c° c c 0 C"O c�0 � .° � c voi U C y ro 76 cs � y o � 3 > C � a) c °- � C U " co co O d E 7 a) ~' C m w 7 W N a�i y co In i H U a� O a c 0 - a� > U .J D a� n ' t 0 ` Y 'D c c 0 c °� c o c aa) r aci a) . m d > y a) o U UJ `v)— 0 w Z H a� > N cn o O O H O y CL A E" V O p O O C O Z O C •c O) D C Y d L f0 U — U m a) o �c o WE h a) > c a) O C y y 0 o y L E Q) r o °n « o ai E m c -C 0 ? o y o 0 0 > a) oo y c E 0 y 4) 0. (u _ «° -0 o O O W n� o a� E L y D > w o v ° E � c aci cCC V � o f oa c o L E `� co c c E V Cl) :« E 0 o c° �' w o : Q ° o c ° 0 C Q W e y c C 0 E E ° _. y 3 f° o _- E a m Z -0 W w D cc c U o «, 0 c a� c U C 0 m 0 +.. U c ai c E E io E > "a3i N 3 O `° o ` m c a c c v E m fO L > E > L C O L W L E v� .c ac) CD E c w w U' IR ov � c�i ri v ui cD Gi (n 1 1 Chapter One • Strategy 5. POLICY CHOICES FOR THE REGION Considering these themes leads us to pose the several policy issues that the region must resolve in the process of adopting this plan. Each of these policy issues is a central point of the plan, and clearly identifies the dilemmas faced by the region as it attempts to meet multiple goals. Frequently called "trade-offs", these are more correctly defined as complementarities, which must be treated simultaneously, a new and more difficult means of relating to problems when pressures are great and resources limited. The lesson of the RCP must be that planning does not involve "either-or" choices, but rather, must focus on a new approach which creates approaches resulting in "non-zero" sum situations, situations in which all parties benefit through building on the recognition of their mutual interdependence, common needs and shared participation in life in the Region. Thus, for instance, the proposal for enhanced local based transit is designed not only to improve transportation, but to create a new transportation equipment industrial cluster which serves the needs of export, helps meet clean air goals and provides needed jobs both in manufacturing and in operations. These dilemmas, or policy choices, facing the region are highlighted the box on page 1-13. Page 1-12 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan a Chapter One • Strategy POLICY DILEMMAS FACING THE SCAG REGION • Can this region find a solution which simultaneously meets both the renuirements for cleaner air and provides adeauate mobility within the constraints of funding? Even though the region will be expending billions of dollars for the mobility system, there are severe financial and environmental constraints that must be addressed in this plan and by the region. Not only must the plan live within reasonably available funds, which this draft plan does not, the region must also be within its air emissions budgets in each of the air basins. These emissions budgets will be ultimately contained in the federally approved air plans. However, comparing the estimates found in the mobility chapter for automobile emissions with those in the 1989 and 1991 Air Quality Management Plans for the South Coast Air Basin and for Ventura County shows that there is a substantial gap between the emissions reductions in this plan and those required. • How will the region find the land needed for construction to accommodate the millions of new residents expected at affordable prices given the shrinking availability of open land for new development? Environmental considerations place limits on the availability of new land for development, s and practical considerations demonstrate that present development patterns fail to meet the demand. What steps must the region take to ensure that housing can be produced at acceptable prices while still meeting environmental, transportation and other goals? • In restructuring the governance functions, the region must develop mechanisms which at the same time ensure timely responses to demand and economic conditions while not weakening the protections needed for the public health and>safety. What approaches can be taken to streamline the processes of review and permitting of development to ensure that both demands are met reasonably? • How will the region balance resource needs including water, land, air, etc., with the demands of growth and the economy? The 1987-92 draught tested the limits of availability for water, and demonstrated the need to plan ahead. The region must rethink its resource consumption practices, to ensure that the burdens placed by growth and economic changes do not excessively burden available resources, and that we can ensure sustained availability for future generations as well. • What programs and approaches to htnnan development will be needed to meet the changing demands of the economy? Will Southern California be able to continue supplying the human capacities to ensure that the economy meets the goals set for the region, skills that are both of the highest level and widely distributed in the population? • Will Southern California be able to take care of its communities in need? Social and economic needs are widely distributed, but frequently focused in specific communities, and within those communities, to individuals and families whose independence is compromised by a cluster of problems. Returning these people to full participation in the community will require focused efforts, and the region must decide how it will meet this need, which transcends individual local jurisdictions. • How will the re plan for the allocation of population, employment and new development to ensure that the distribution is supportive of the goals of the plan and further, that the growth enhances the capacities of local governments to supply needed services for all residents? SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-13 Chapter One • Strategy C. A DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK FOR IMPLEMENTATION As indicated above, this document is primarily a guide toward decision-making for local governments. But it also establishes a new approach to this decision-making which suggests that old approaches must be revised and new relationships established between the various centers of decision-making in order that local governments, the private sector and the public at large be supportive of these decisions. 1 . OPPORTUNITIES FOR PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP A primary theme of the plan is the development of an ongoing relationship between the public and private sectors based on the recognition of their mutual interdependence. The private sector cannot resolve these economic issues alone, nor can the public. Yet in the past, all too often they have looked to each other to "bail out" the region by unilateral actions designed to favor a particular approach or set of interests. Even the recent economic prosperity based on defense production was in part the result of a carefully developed program of public investments guided toward this region under two California presidents, Nixon and Reagan. The change of administration following President Reagan heralded, even before the end of the Cold War, a shift in the economic favoritism away from California and toward other areas which had been less successful in the past, especially Texas, home to President Bush, and Washington state, home to U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Thomas Foley. Southern California has begun to face this reality, and this plan is the first step in organizing a response. Much remains to be done, many issues have yet to be fully addressed, but the strategy includes: • Conversion of military high-tech production into new products in transportation, communications, environmental management and resource conservation. • Focused development based on a cooperative relationship between local governments and the private sector to facilitate the creation of industry "clusters", or groups firms in related industries which support each other (see Chapter 2). • An increase in the support given to the foundations of economic growth; education, training and job development; and continued improvements in the quality of life. 2. WORKING THROUGH SUBREGIONS The history of Southern California has been one of largely uninhibited freedom to develop and urbanize, with only limited interference from concerns for the environment, neighbors or economic consequences beyond the immediate benefits to the locality gaining the development. The region has now come to the recognition that this state of affairs cannot continue now that urbanization is continuous for nearly 6,000 square-miles, and the problems of pollution, waste, crime, traffic, etc., travel as freely across city and county boundaries as do the winds and the rain. Yet, at the same time, local governments also strongly support the need for local decision-making, keeping the locus of power and responsibility close to the average citizen, where true dialogue can be encouraged, and a shared responsibility fostered in the best traditions of American democracy. Page 1-14 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan ! Chapter One • Strategy To link the concerns of 15 or 20 million residents into effective decision-making processes, Southern California has embarked on a unique experiment in subregional cooperation, sometimes referred to as "bottom-up" planning, wherein the primary source of ideas and implementation authority lie at the local level, while the collective, acting through regional agencies, examines the consequences of local actions to ensure their consistency and support for regional goals and mandates. SCAG has recognized the role of 13 subregions, each with its own unique history, development, economy, and aspirations, and through them has proceeded to put together this document. Each has been called on to formulate a subregional approach to such issues as air quality, transportation, housing, economic growth and others, and to do so within the broad goals of the region, which are set forth in this chapter. This coordinated, decentralized planning and implementation is a significant change. In the past, nearly 185 separate cities and counties competed with little restraint for economic advantage over their neighbors, little caring if the long-term impacts on the region justified the temporary gains. This document sets forth the first steps toward creating a new relationship that balances competitiveness with cooperation. New firms and growth are emphasized, rather than redistributing existing jobs and benefits within the existing urban fabric. The plan sets forth the first steps the region must take to redress this situation. This will be further developed in the Financial component, to be released later as Chapter 10. It is increasingly being recognized that only through local agreement on the goals and actions can plans and programs be implemented effectively. Impositions from outside are usually impractical, forced, and lack the support needed to meet their targets and goals. Numerous examples exist, the best known of which relates to air quality. Others include housing allocations and environmental requirements for habitat protection. While the region has had some successes, for instance in the creation of the growing network of High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes, other initiatives have not been well received. The plan addresses these issues and develops an alternative approach to meeting these worthwhile goals by giving local governments and agencies the primary responsibility for establishing the programs and actions within agreed guidelines. The region is also working to create an alternative approach to replace mandatory adherence to requirements imposed from above. The new approach would rely on local responsibility, acting through self-regulating and self-correcting mechanisms that reward appropriate actions or behavior, and penalize those that tend to harm the region's interests. This Strategy is the first statement of this approach applied to the full range of urban planning and development activities. 3. CONSENSUS BUILDING AND DISPUTE RESOLUTION Among the many results of the past approaches to governance has been the proclivity to resort to legal remedy when neighboring jurisdictions undertook projects that benefitted themselves while exposing neighbors to major impacts from traffic, water and air pollution, etc. Long recognized as a problem, but never directly addressed before, this document, when implemented, will establish a program of alternative dispute resolution. Based on voluntary resort to mediation and on training public officials in consensus building and dispute avoidance, it seeks to create a more cooperative approach to planning and project implementation. It relies on the concept that development benefits should be shared in some measure among those who also suffer the impacts. New approaches to resolving problems resulting from continued development and change in the region are developed and made available to all units of government, local, county, and state, as well as SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-15 • Chapter One • Strategy to the regional and subregional agencies responsible for reviewing and overseeing the broader impacts of local actions. The process by which the RCP is being developed represents a major departure in planning for Southern California in a number of ways. Unlike previous plans, the RCP is not a static document: through amendment and regular updating, it will evolve over time. Second, and, perhaps, more important, the locus of decision-making for the region has changed. No longer will the regional body attempt to impose plans on the region: rather, through a dynamic, "bottom-up" interactive process, plans are to be developed based on local input with regional coordination to enable adherence to standards set in federal and state law, or by the region. Because of this subregional process, active participation in regional planning has increased, as has interaction among local governments. Plan development is not the only arena in which local and subregional decisions are made. Implementation will, in many ways, involve even tougher decisions. Urban form issues, transportation projects, air quality measures, facility siting, uses of open space, growth management, and housing allocation, all raise the specter of potential conflicts. Traditionally, disputes have been dealt with in a number of ways: the issue may be put to a vote and there are winners and losers; the issue may be avoided by not deciding; a decision can be imposed (by a higher level of government) without any buy-in by those impacted; or, failing any other resolution, the parties litigate. There appears to be wide-spread agreement that there must be a better, less-costly and less time- consuming way to resolve differences. During the past decade, many public bodies have turned to mediation or alternative dispute resolution as the "better way". The goal is to arrive at decisions based on mutual agreement among parties. The process assumes parties will be supportive of the decisions reached. Key to this process is consensus building, which does not happen automatically. It often requires the use of a highly skilled third party to create an atmosphere in which alternative approaches may be reviewed and tested, which in turn requires skill to bring the parties together in the correct frame of mind. Alternative dispute resolution services are now being created throughout the United States. Several states have established mediation centers for public policy issues where both state and local agencies can obtain assistance and support in bringing public disputes to resolution through mediation. Cities and non-profit agencies provide services for almost every kind of dispute, including, landlord-tenant, marital, zoning and building code, and dog-barking. Both the federal government` and the state of California' have recognized the value of these processes. These new approaches to resolving conflicts may take many forms. One approach might involve conducting meetings in such a manner as to assure that there is closure on issues and that closure is reached through consensus. Another approach, used in developing regulations, brings all the affected parties to the table. At `See the recently adopted "Administrative Dispute Resolution Act." (5 USC 3 571 at seq.) s For example,state Senator Bergeson's proposed legislation(SB 517)provides for voluntary mediation of land use disputes. The potential litigants have the option of choosing a mediation specialist,a council of governments, or a subregional or county- wide council of governments to mediate the issues. Page 1-16 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Mb w Chapter One • Strategy the federal level this has is called "negotiated rule making"" This is appropriate for issues ranging from the numbers used in modeling to siting of hazardous waste facilities or base closures. Using these techniques, they often can be resolved in such a way that everyone is willing to support the agreement. 4. SELF-REGULATING MECHANISMS VS. REGULATION Finally, and perhaps ultimately among the most important, is the decision to shift wherever possible from the "command and control" to a more self-regulating approach to achieving legally required changes in public behavior. This approach would apply to pollution control and abatement, to traffic management, and potentially a wide range of other activities, where the cumulative impacts of human activities are unacceptable, but the means to reduce them cannot be effectively managed through individual actions. Such self regulating mechanism often come under the heading of "market based solutions" - increasing the cost of an activity to bring the cost more directly in line with the full cost of its impacts, both private and public, and thereby regulating its impacts. While frequently difficult to achieve, and potentially subject to abuses and equity impacts (differential impacts on those least able to afford the added cost), well designed programs with adequate safeguards are believed to offer a far more reasonable approach to meeting requirements than does regulation which relies on often grudging compliance and an enforcement mechanism which is frequently costly, unsure and arbitrary in its implementation. This approach should help to create what are called "positive sum" results, in which all parties can benefit, rather than the more common "zero-sum" approach in which one party's gain comes largely at the expense of others. Through a measure of regional cooperation, problems which have appeared previously beyond the capacity of local governments to resolve could become foundations for cooperative action. Many of the problems facing the region are a result of an inability to reach beyond the "zero-sum" paradigm in finding cooperative approaches. The fear that the non-participant(s) in such an action would gain some specific advantage over those who willingly take difficult actions has largely prevented such actions from occurring. Examples include proposals for a regional parking strategy, competitive land use practices, economic development, housing policies, waste treatment and others. 5. MODES OF PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION. As noted above, past efforts to impose solutions from above have run into increasing resistance at the local level and from the private sector. One of the aims of this Strategy is to chart a course, which, over time, can improve compliance with regional goals by increasing the "buy-in" by local governments. This must be done through ever growing levels of local participation in both decision-making and plan implementation. It implies a simultaneous reduction in the centralized, coercive nature of the current process. It is hoped that this document will ultimately lead to the creation of region-wide self-regulating mechanisms. For some purposes these could be contracts among subregions or among regional agencies and subregions. For other purposes, in the long-run, this might be done by establishing pricing mechanism so as to reward acceptable actions and discourage or penalize actions that impose costs on the region. e This approach is shown in Figure 1-4, which describes a continuum of modes of governance and planning. This continuum ranges from the Current Practice, (based on regulation largely established at the federal and Recognizing the benefits of this approach,congress enacted the"Negotiated Rule making Act of 1990." ( 5 USC i 561 at seq.) SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 a Page 1-17 • Chapter One • Strategy state levels and enforced by regional functional agencies), to Managed Interaction, Contract Interaction and a Simulated Market. Managed Interaction is a decision-making style in which, while regional agencies, such as SCAG, still bear most of the responsibility for setting the directions of planning, more and more policies are set by subregional input into the process. This is the mode toward where the region is currently moving. The SCAG Regional Council believes managed interaction is a way station on the path to what is here called Contract Interaction, in which goals will be achieved through contractual relationships. Some may be contracts within subregions or among them. Regional agencies, both general purpose and functional will be responsible for making trade-offs and will assist in dispute resolution. But there will be flexibility in both the goals optimized at the subregional level and in the methods for reaching them. Figure 1-2 sets out the hope that ultimately as much as possible of our regional decision making will take place in what is here called a Simulated Market. The idea of the Simulated Market is that, at least for some functions, it can capture the goals for particular activities through a pricing system. It should be remembered that these are idealized types, and that within any situation, aspects of more than one may be occurring. Thus at present some subregions may be ready to do cross-functional planning by contract with SCAG while others are not. Similarly, strategies for dealing with air quality may at a given point include regulations as well as markets, while other aspects of achieving improved air quality may be handled through contract or managed interaction. While it may not be possible to achieve uniform progress away from the current momentum and toward contract interaction and reliance on markets, the intent of this document is to begin a process of pushing decision making in those directions. For this decision-making framework, the range of types of interaction shown in Figure 1-2 is intended to show alternative approaches that may be or are currently being used to deal with specific issues. In seeking to create a mechanism for achieving a specific objective tied to the regional goals, a choice needs to be made with regard to the most appropriate mode for decision making and for implementation. The "current momentum" is implied in most current public policy, and relies on the top down regulatory mode. Southern California must recognize that selection of an alternative strategy may well involve some delay while the legal and practical basis for the alternative are designed, tested and approved by the regulatory or legislative bodies who currently have responsibility. The SCAG Regional Council hopes that it can make clear that its goal. is to move away from the "current practice" in decision making. But, until approval to do so can be obtained, and in order to assure the continued flow of resources from other levels of government, the region must continue under its present regulatory obligations, which impose substantial penalties for non-compliance. Thus, the effort to change the style of decision making in the region, like the effort to change the types of goalls provided by federal and state mandates, must be two-tracked. One effort at this point must be to effectively meet the present regulatory requirements (and avoid the imposition of sanctions as much as to meet the intent of the regulation). At the same time, the Regional Council is committed to working toward changing the rules to permit the new, regionally developed approach, which rests on the transfer of primary responsibility to the subregions and local governments. Page 1-18 • December 1993 SCAG 0 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan MIA Lo Y Rs aCi °�' E t cc c d W c �aS • Cf+ > C r0 Z .0 O C M U a y 0) a U) a c° y = ` � o � `D W toa� � a) LC i..=� a°i C c U Q) O >' C U C cc U M U I-- O b C c 3 Ln a� y Ln 5 En n o ` C ZA �_ C Q `n cn CL V c4 ao'v cC Q) 3 c L O ; w h GD,U d to U > U " c C. U C C U 64 U o „ ocz G. p c E LL O to m w �•C �0 C E o a� ca a N y ca >_ O O C 7s C t, z > co O .o U L� 'C O •C � «U+ •C Z � O N +• � �a o � �a �o 2 AcA,, •fix, � a.._ a c to •O ccO C C �ac CL C ^' E .0 a +r c ^r, aCi a•$ o•°- � 4 O w = cn � wAD Chapter One • Strategy The RCP represents the work of many agencies and organizations. In addition to SCAG, cities and counties, county transportation commissions, air quality management districts, water quality districts, water supply districts, state and federal agencies have all contributed plans for inclusion in this overview. SCAG's authorities are specifically delineated in law, and are limited to planning and plan review through the intergovernmental review process. SCAG has no implementation powers: these rest with local government or with the single purpose agencies enumerated above. This decision-making framework seeks implementation through two distinct avenues. First, all regional plans must be consistent in their basic assumptions and projections. This is required in state planning law, and it means that local plans must be consistent with all regional plans. To accomplish this, local plans, in the process of being updated, must incorporate these regional assumptions. Once consistent, it is SCAG's intention to allow self certification of plans and projects by local governments, since SCAG will no longer need to review them for consistency. Second, by bringing state and regional plans from other agencies into consistent assumptions, and by incorporating their plans into the RCP, these agencies will be working together toward the accomplishment of these same goals, and therefore acting to implement the RCP through implementation of their own plans, now modified to achieve the needed consistency. A major by-product of this approach is intended to be a reduction in the number and reviews, and their cost in time and money on projects at all levels. One of the goals of this document is to simplify the process of government to improve the delivery of public services in all sectors, and this should be an important contribution in this direction.6. 6. MONITORING CHANGES A final aspect of this document, one which until now has been too often ignored, is that of monitoring changes in the progress toward achievement of regional goals on a continuing basis. This is needed to ensure that plans and implementing programs once agreed to are in fact yielding the results intended. This cycle of regional planning will hopefully culminate in the first use of a new tool to which all subregions and all local governments will have access to measure this progress or the lack thereof. In making decisions about new growth, or changes in the infrastructure of their jurisdictions, local governments and subregional organizations will be better able to relate changes at a local level with those occurring within their subregion and the region as a whole. They will also be able to communicate to other subregions that they are making changes and receive timely comment on how their decisions impact their neighbors. The idea is to develop an interactive data base that, for the first time, will link all cities with their subregional organizations, and tie the subregions to SCAG. The tool is intended to provide a current, convenient and common base for communicating plans and projects, for examining their impacts outside a given jurisdiction and on other functional areas (e.g. transportation improvements on air quality) and ultimately for the assessment of their impacts on other localities and other functions as time goes on. This monitoring system, more fully described in Chapter 15, creates no new mandates or powers for SCAG or the subregions. Rather, it offers local decision-makers greater ability to use existing tools and authority effectively, thereby adding to their assurance that imposition of additional mandates can be avoided. The proposed decision-making continuum described in this chapter is based on a new vision of local governance, one in which local governments become more willing to assume the responsibility for achieving regional goals because they have developed those goals and the processes developed for implementing them. Page 1-20 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter One • Strategy Simultaneously this vision involves embracing the recognition that to be effective, government at all levels must provide ready and meaningful access for all to the material, social, and political benefits conferred by the locality and also by the region. D. CAVEATS This document represents the current state of thinking on each of the subjects covered, but does not reflect any decision on how to structure the RCP in order to maximize the expression of the relationships between the components. SCAG's Standing Committee on Planning will be reviewing this structure to determine how the document should finally be organized: whether as discrete elements, as broad themes, or as a unified strategy for the region. Further, it must be clearly stated at the outset that this is a draft plan: several important policy decisions remain to be taken before the final document can be prepared. The most important of these concern the distribution pattern of the anticipated population growth and the final shape of the mobility program to be recommended. In particular, there is a continuing discussion between the older, more urbanized areas of the region and the newer, rapidly urbanizing areas over the relative rates of growth for both employment and population, and the resulting stress these patterns might place on facilities and on local government finances. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 1-21 0 0 c _ � 1 1 Q C hsp � sr 2 THE ECONOMY • Regional Economic Goals • Mapping the Region's Economy • Long-Term Economic Forecast for the SCAG Region • Strategies for Economic Prosperity and Equity L A. INTRODUCTION The SCAG region is a formidable economic entity. With an estimated gross regional product of more than $360 billion, the SCAG region's economy is the 12th largest in the world—between those of Spain and India. During the two decades following 1970, the region's population increased by 4.6 million, an amount equivalent to adding a state the size of Minnesota to SCAG's six counties. Between 1972 and 1990 a remarkable 2.8 million jobs were created in the region, an average annual increase of 3.6 percent. And personal income regionwide rose from just over $4,800 per capita in 1970 to $20,600 twenty years later. This is an impressive economic record, certainly among the best, in terms of the sheer magnitude of change, of any region in the world. Few countries with an economy as large as that of Southern California operate without some form of economic game plan. Yet this chapter on The Economy is the first of its kind in any SCAG plan. The rationale for it, at this juncture in Southern California's economic history, should be clear to anyone living in the SCAG region today. The regional economy is mired in the most serious recession since the 1930s and there is widespread concern about the future of its economic base. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-1 Chapter Two • The Economy Once before, in the early 1970s, the SCAG economy faced the need to find new areas of economic growth as deep post-Vietnam defense spending cuts hit the nation and region. Once before, the need to begin economic transition emerged at the same time that a national recession pushed unemployment rates more than 10 percent. During the 1970s and 1980s the regional economy outpaced the nation in job growth although defense jobs never regained 1967 levels and fell sharply as a share of the region's economic base. The region prospered by developing new areas of economic strength and competitiveness. The region's firms and workers saw where new opportunities were emerging and responded successfully. The length and depth of the current recession has caused people to ask whether the region's economy is facing more than just another period of transition and change. There is a lack of confidence about whether the region's firms and workers can, once again, identify and take advantage of new opportunities. The Southern California Association of Governments' Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) examines the future of the region during the next 20 years. Previous regional plans have focused principally on transportation, housing, growth management, and air quality issues, without specifying their impacts on the economy. This plan, by contrast, starts with the premise that a healthy regional economy is a prerequisite for successful implementation of policies in these other areas. Additionally, in the past, components of the regional plans were developed in a fairly traditional public policy process within SCAG and its family of local government constituencies. This chapter on The Economy was developed using a completely different approach—with early and broad involvement of business and community groups. This process began in June 1992 with two days of economic transition strategies workshops in which business, government, labor, academic, and community group leaders collectively analyzed the causes of the severe recession and the economic transitions facing the region and explored regional strategies for economic recovery. During the period since those intensive working sessions, a volunteer consortium of business and community associations coordinated by the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce and the 2000 Regional Partnership has been meeting to refine the strategy. The Economy is a product of these efforts together with those of SCAG. This chapter is an assessment of the SCAG region economy. What are its strengths and weaknesses? Where do the future opportunities lie? What needs to be done to enhance the region's competitiveness in the national and world economy? Chapter 2 is divided into five sections: A. Introduction B. Regional Economic Goals 1. Prosperity: Real Income Growth 2. Equity: Ensuring Economic Gains Are Broadly Shared C. Mapping the Region's Economy 1. The Economic Base 2. The Impact of Recession Page 2-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy 3. Economic Transitions 4. The Issue of Economic Competitiveness D. Long-Term Economic Forecast for the SCAG Region E. Strategies for Economic Prosperity and Equity 1. Introduction: The Need for a Regional Focus 2. Regional Economic Strategies Consortium (RESC) 3. Strategies to Expand and Diversify the Region's Economic Base 4. Strategies to Promote Regional Competitiveness 5. Strategies for Investment in "Communities-In-Need" E 4: SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-3 Chapter Two • The Economy B. REGIONAL ECONOMIC GOALS In view of the region's economic history and its current circumstances, what are the appropriate goals at which policy makers should be aiming? A multitude of economic targets can be envisioned, but most, on closer inspection, will turn out to be intermediate in nature. The fundamental economic goal of regional planning must be to improve the welfare or standard of living of those who work and reside there'. Unfortunately, standard of living is a subjective concept; planning requires objective criteria. The statistical measure that comes closest is real personal income . Aims such as increasing the number of jobs or maintaining the competitiveness of regional industries—which are discussed later in this chapter—are really intermediate objectives to be met in order to grow personal incomes in the region. Hand in hand with income growth must be the broad goal of equity: ensuring that everyone participates in the growth of prosperity. 1 . PROSPERITY: REAL INCOME GROWTH Real personal income (personal income adjusted for inflation) is the broadest single statistical measure of well-being or standard of living. As such, growth of real income is more important as a regional economic target than growth of jobs alone. To provide a meaningful measure of progress in achieving prosperity, we need a unit by which the dollar value of total personal income in the region can be divided. Here there are several choices: standard measures include real personal income per household,per family,per capita, and per worker. For purposes of a regional economic strategy, neither income per family nor income per household seem appropriate. Household formation and family size are both influenced by many variables that are not directly related to the state of the regional economy: culture, religion, and ethnicity to name a few. Real personal income per capita is probably the least biased of measures, but it suffers from the drawback that rapid growth in the population (including that caused by immigration) at certain times may cause distortions. Expressing the total on a per-employee basis would not take account of the effect of changes in unemployment. However, if we were to use the number of members of the labor force (both employed and unemployed) as the denominator, this distortion would be eliminated. Figure 2-1 shows the history of real income on both a per capita basis and a per labor force member basis in the region since 1980. The last major recession (1981-82) shows up clearly in the form of declines in real income, as does the current slump. What is particularly troubling in connection with the current downturn is that it was coupled with a noticeable diminution in the rate of growth of real income on a per capita basis since about 1984. Put another way, per capita real income growth had already been slowing for several years when this recession hit. Income targets for 2010 should be phrased in terms of growth rates of real income between 1990 and 2010, with both a minimum and a moderate goal. For example, expressed in per capita terms, the minimum acceptable growth rate could be zero; i.e., Minimum = no further decline. This would mean that personal income in the region would have to grow each year at least as fast as the rate of inflation plus the rate of 'Subregion input:San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities. 2 Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo Subregion. Page 2-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy population growth. In 1992, for example, personal income would have had to grow by roughly 5 percent to meet this target. The "moderate" income growth target could be to match the performance of the last Figure 2-1 inter-censal period, that is, Moderate = per capita real income growth per annum at its ��Uve Mt►asuns of Real Personal Inooma�CAO Region (1 M-M Constant Dollars) average rate during the 1980s. This would mean, for the region as a whole, an annual compound increase on the order of 0.7 percent. $2L= P-LF� a-0*--k): aao�mo Enhancing the standard of living of the region's inhabitants is an appropriate �`a'a "1A00 economic goal. But it does not address �sa~aoo ta.DOo many of the concerns reflected in the quality of life goal contained in the Strategy chapter P_C40M rS&M-'l 122.= sl.aoo (Chapter 1) of this Plan. These are addressed directly in other chapters of the $20,,, „ RCP under the headings mobility, air IM /2t1 1992 1995 1994 1999 1960 1O7 4a 40 19w 1961 low quality, housing human resources and '"Ao-WW"`MdM1M°PW°"ft1W*P " brDq ' r" sue:WAG d dv—�-M*—bwo d a—W.A-1Jk US Dist of ON- - E services, water quality, etc. However, the strategies recommended in this chapter seek to ensure that cost-effective means are utilized to achieve the region's quality of life goal.' 2. EQUITY: ENSURING ECONOMIC GAINS ARE BROADLY SHARED C It is not enough that the region experience growth in average real income. The second goal of this chapter of the RCP is that the region's gains in economic prosperity are shared broadly by residents throughout the region Both this goal and the previous one are "grass roots" in the sense that they were agreed upon by business, government, labor, academic and community group representatives in SCAG's work over the past two years on the Economic Component. Southern California is probably the most diverse region of its size in the world. The region's population includes residents of very different cultural backgrounds, educational attainment, work experience, skills and income. Our diversity is so great that regional prosperity cannot be achieved unless all major groups participate. Note that a goal of broadly shared prosperity does not imply a strategy of redistributing today's income. Strategies to ensure that future economic gains are broadly distributed are based, by contrast, on expanding opportunity and the commitment of business and government leaders to recognize that individuals and C 'For an extended discussion of the competitive aspects of quality of life,please see sections on 7he Issue of Economic Competitiveness' and 'Public-Private Cooperation to Aid Business Competitiveness'later in this chapter. Subregion input: Los Angeles City,Western Riverside Council of Governments. 'Subregion input:Los Angeles City. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-5 Chapter Two • The Economy communities left behind today must be made full partners in the growth of tomorrow's economy. A regional economic strategy for so-called communities-in-need is discussed in Section D. Finally, with respect to those concerns of quality-of-life goal listed in the Strategy chapter, they will be addressed in other chapters, such as Regional Mobility, Air Quality, Human Resources and Services, Water Quality, etc. However, the strategies recommended in this chapter require that this region exercise a cost- effective approach to achieve our quality of life goal.' N.B. The recommendations contained in this chapter to fulfill the stated goals and objectives do not create new legal mandates for local governments or other regional organizations. 'For further and extended discussion of a competitive quality of life,please see sections on '7he Issue of Economic Competitiveness'and 'Public-Private Cooperation to Aid Business Competitiveness.', below. Subregion input: Los Angeles City, West Riverside Council of Governments. Page 2-6 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy C. MAPPING THE REGION'S ECONOMY Three main factors account for Southern California's economic predicament in the early 1990s: (1) the severe economic recession which began in mid-1990, (2) a series of economic transitions or structural changes—including defense spending cuts—that were already underway when the recession struck, and (3) deterioration in the region's business climate and competitiveness. We return to these factors below, but before we can appreciate their impact we need to examine the nature of the regional economy. How does it work? What are the major sectors? What are its strengths and weaknesses, its opportunities and challenges? How did the region fare in the wake of the defense cuts and recession that occurred 20 years ago? A regional economic strategy must be based on more than responding to today's headlines. What strategies are needed for the next 20 years? Given the opportunities and challenges, what are the likely dimensions of growth in the region between now and 2010—how many new jobs and people are likely? Section 1, below, describes the SCAG region economic base at the beginning of the period covered by the Regional Comprehensive Plan. 1 . THE ECONOMIC BASE The rate of job growth in the SCAG economy is primarily determined by growth in the region's economic base. Basic industries—the industries included in the regions's economic base—make a substantial share of their sales to customers outside of the region.' That is, they export goods and services to customers elsewhere in California, throughout the nation, and throughout the world. Selling outside the boundaries of the region is what brings new income in. L To be sure we are clear on terms, note that the word "industry" is used here in a generic sense, to denote any type of productive activity. That is, "services" provided by a business qualify as industries under this definition. Examples would be the banking industry, health care industry, etc. However, not all services industries are "basic" in the sense of exportable (able to be sold outside the region. Finally, note that exportable does not necessarily mean consumed outside the region. Tourists consume our goods and services within the region, but the tourism industry is nevertheless "basic" because the money tourists spend comes from outside the area. A list of basic and non-basic industries is contained in the Technical Appendix to this r' chapter. Aircraft, apparel, motion pictures, computer services, plastics, and amusements are all key industries in the region's economic base. Other parts of the economic base include the rest of manufacturing, air transportation, parts of the wholesale trade, hotel, and business services industries, as well as part of the services provided by the region's hospitals and universities, which serve people from outside the region. Manufacturing activities have been and will continue to be an important part of the SCAG region economic 4 base. Manufacturing activities create both direct production jobs and jobs in many related industries. Basic industries are defined as those whose output can be exported as well as sold in the region. So called'non-basic'industries(mainly services),by contrast, are sold only in the home market. Constriction and education are examples of the latter. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-7 t Chapter Two • The Economy However, manufacturing jobs have been a steadily declining share of the national economic base as well as that of the region. For example, between 1979 and 1993 the U.S. economy added 20 million jobs while the number of manufacturing jobs fell by more than 3 million. Even through the current national job recovery, manufacturing jobs have declined steadily. Manufacturing is very important to the region's prosperity, but it is not the only base sector with future opportunities. Non-manufacturing activities, like tourism, entertainment, and professional services, have become a significant component of the SCAG region economic base. As shown below, most of the job growth in the region's economic base has and will continue to occur outside of manufacturing. To reiterate, the SCAG region's economic base is the appropriate focus for developing economic strategies. • Exportable goods and services are subject to intense competition. A regional competitiveness strategy means being competitive in basic industries. Growth in jobs and sales in the region depends on how well the region's firms and workers compete—often with locations throughout the world. People involved in basic industries—whether in manufacturing apparel, filming a motion picture, or deciding where to vacation—have a choice. • Growth in the economic base will determine the opportunities for job growth and increases in income in the rest of the economy. Prospects for employment growth in supporting activities like retail trade, medical services, construction, and local education depend on employment expansion in basic industries. Regions with the fastest growing economic bases have the highest rates of overall employment growth. Page 2-8 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Q � Chapter Two 0 The Economy a. The Region's Changing Economic Base The number of jobs in the SCAG region's economic base expanded by almost 50 percent between 1972 and 1992. Most of the new basic jobs were created in the region's service sectors—not in the production of goods. As shown in Table 2-1, the two fastest-growing sectors were professional services and tourism and entertainment, with job gains of more than 100 percent. Employment in basic transportation and wholesale trade activities increased by almost 60 percent. All of these sectors benefitted from increases in foreign as well as domestic purchases. Table 2-1 SCAG Region Economic Base* Thousands of Jobs Percent Change 1972 1992 1972-1992 Professional Services 328.5 798.8 143.2% Diversified Manufacturing 673.9 721.8 7.1% Transportation & Wholesale Trade 329.5 526.5 59.8% Tourism & Entertainment 107.0 248.3 132.1% Defense Related 250.1 236.2 -5.6% Resource Based 78.6 116.8 48.6% High Technology Manufacturing 80.9 111.9 38.3% Total 1,848.3 2,760.3 49.3% *The industries (SIC Codes) contained in each of the 7groups in the table xill be found in the Technical Appendix to this chapter. The three manufacturing groups shown in the table—defense related, high technology, and the large diversified manufacturing sector—had only modest employment growth. However, Figure 2-2 shows that output (in billions of dollars) in the manufacturing sector grew steadily—increasing by 50% percent in real terms. This trend of continued growth of output with much smaller (if any) growth in jobs has been experienced throughout most manufacturing sectors in the national and world economies. It is explained by gains in productivity—output per worker—that result from education, training, and the use of more, and more sophisticated, capital equipment in each job. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-9 Chapter Two • The Economy Figure 2-2 Manufacturing: The Effects of Productivity SCAG Region Output and Employment 160 1,500 150 -------------- ———— 1,400 „^ ————————————— ---_--1.300 O (rightscale)/t--�— ------�1,200 6 0 130 -----r --- ---------1,100 v -- --------o --1,000 m 120 ———— ---—left ac- ------900 � 110 .r --- ----------------Soo 100 700 9tti9e 191y9 9��a1�t°00°a0 e���90 a0 9�,�019�,90 9�e°'♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ —Production --Jobs Let's take a look at recent key developments in the region's economic base. b. The Shrinking Role of Defense The defense-related sector of the region's economic base is no longer large in terms of job levels compared with other sectors.' In fact, as shown in Figure 2-3, defense activities have declined substantially as a share of the region's economic base. Yet continuing defense spending cuts loom large in the minds of most Southern Californians as an impediment to future economic growth. The SCAG region economy is currently experiencing its second major decline in defense related employment since the 1960s. After the Vietnam War, defense-related jobs fell sharply—from 367,800 in 1967 to 250,100 in 1972— and stayed relatively stable until a new defense buildup began in 1979. Between 1972 and 1979, jobs in the SCAG region grew faster than in the nation despite the stagnation in defense employment. Figure 2-4 clearly illustrates this development. As a result, the share of defense jobs in the region's economic base fell each year in the 1970s until the 1979 defense buildup. The most recent defense spending peak in the region was in the mid-1980s. Defense-related jobs topped out in 1986-87 at slightly more than 330,000, and by mid-1993 had declined to just over 200,000. During the 'The defense-related sector includes aircraft,missiles&space,search and navigation equipment,shipbuilding&repair,and federal civilian defense jobs. In these sectors,a significant share of activity is defense related. Some defense spending creates jobs in other industries in which not all production is defense related. The aircraft industry, for example,actually sells more than half its production in commercial markets. In 1991,shipments of commercial transport planes totaled 526.9 billion nationwide compared to$12.2 billion for military aircraft. Page 2-10 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy first years of defense spending cuts the regional economy continued to grow faster than the nation until the onset of severe recession in 1990. Figure 2-3 Defense Sector's Share of Regional Economy (Percent) 16.09E 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0 Share of All Jobs ❑Share of Base Jobs c Figure 2-4 Regional Employment Grew Despite Defense Cuts SCAG Region Defense Jobs and Share of Total U.S.Employment 400 5.8% IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII �.II 350 -1 ,-irrr-h��?rrrh�7TrC�t-1 5-� I IIIIIIIIIIIIIII ' ll'.I $app 77 Trrm7TT7rn i r -t e.ex 3 I I c 2S0 I I I I 1 1 1 1.1 pyr rr��I I 5.5%Cn Cn J-IILLL 1LL•L•L1�11LLL_' 5.4%=i 200 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.I' 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I I I o 5.3%r c 150 1 f' 1 + 1 1 1 1 1 1 H� +�� 1.11 L1'I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 1 52%H-ate+ F-I-a� ++--H I 0100--11 1 1 1 1 1 ttrt-H�fitt f-�H-t-tt1-�H-t S•1%— so- 0 IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII 49% `gyp`q�°�qt►.���►`�a°`q�e`�°`q�`q����qep�qaQ`tea One defense-related industry in Southern California that has been hit hard not only by defense cuts but also by the current global recession is aircraft. The business downturn has brought a sharp decline in commercial SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-11 Chapter Two • The Economy sales to both domestic and foreign customers. For all U.S. suppliers, the number of new firm orders for civilian aircraft dropped from 1,015 in 1989 to 231 in 1992. Def-.nse spending will continue to fall for the foreseeable future. Even at reduced levels, however, the numbers involved are still huge. Federal purchases will continue to exceed $200 billion per year for the next several years, and retention of the region's competitive position in these markets is therefore a critical objective. c. A Growing Role for International Trade Foreign trade has emerged as a major sector in the region's economic base. The volume of merchandise trade through the Los Angeles Customs District has grown from $6.2 billion in 1972 to $121.8 billion in 199.2 (see Table 2-2). Total trade, imports and exports combined, has increased by 16.0% per year for the past 20 years—a true growth industry! Table 2-2 Los Angeles Customs District Total Merchandise Trade ($ Billions) Average Annual Growth Rate 1972 1992 1972-1992 Exports $1.9 $49.4 17.6% Imports $4.3 $72.4 15.2% Total Trade $6.2 $121.8 16.0% The impact of international trade on the region is even larger than these statistics suggest. Trade in services, which is not included in the Customs District data, is growing even faster than trade in goods. For every $3 in goods trade, there is now an additional $1 worth of trade in services such as banking, insurance, and tourism. A precise count of jobs associated with foreign trade is not available, but they are numerous and spread throughout most sectors of the regional economy. The rule of thumb used by the U.S. Department of Commerce is that for every additional $1 billion of U.S. exports, 19,000 jobs are created. International trade creates jobs in three major ways: • Through the manufacture of goods in the region Leading exports from the region (1992) include Transportation equipment ($8.0 billion), electrical equipment ($5.6 billion), office machinery ($4.6 billion), miscellaneous manufactured goods ($2.7 billion), and professional scientific and control instruments ($2.4 billion). Page 2-12 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan s Chapter Two • The Economy • Through goods delivery The $121.8 billion in trade in 1992 supported thousands of jobs in the trucking, wholesale trade, railroad, shipping, and air cargo industries. • Through trade in services Air travel and accommodations for tourist and business travelers is the largest area of trade in services. However, many other areas are taking off. Rapidly-growing markets include software and entertainment products (video, music), professional services, and education and health (foreign visitors using the region's universities and medical centers). In addition, the region is a major center for deal making. Foreign trade requires financial, legal and other professional services. The SCAG region has developed into a major international business and financial center during the past two decades. Fortunately, the recession so far does not appear to have hurt the value of international trade passing through the Los Angeles Customs District. Without foreign trade as a buffer, unemployment in the region would today be even higher than it already is. d. Exports The value of exports rose 9.2 percent in 1991, virtually the same as in 1990, and a further gain of 7.5% was posted in 1992 (see Figure 2-5). Considering the severity of the downturn in economic activity and employment in other sectors of the regional economy, these growth rates, although slower than in the 1988- 90 period, nonetheless can be considered quite good. Figure 2-5 Growth of Exports Through L.A. Customs District so% I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 70% I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I i l l sox T- 50% I l l l l l i l l l i i i l l l l 40% I i l l l l I I I I I I I I I I 30% I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 20% I I I I I I ( I I I I I I I I I 1096 I I I i i i l l I I I i l 0% I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I YEAR SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-13 Chapter Two • The Economy Other things equal, export growth depends more on changes in real economic activity abroad than it does on real growth in the region. The slowdown in export growth through LACD in the 1990-92 period reflects we.zdcer GDP growth in Japan, other Asian economies and Europe in the past few years. e. Imports On the import side, however, weaker demand for foreign (mainly Asian and Latin American) products both here; and elsewhere in the United States stalled import growth through the L.A. Customs District at only 3.3 percent in 1991 (see Figure 2-6). As import prices rose by more than this, the volume of goods handled fell, resulting, undoubtedly, in some loss of employment in the goods handling and transport areas. Surprisingly, the preliminary 1992 data showed import growth through the district up 8.5 percent, fairly close to the growth rates of 1987-89. Figure 2-6 Growth of Imports Through L.A. Customs District so96 4096 3096 2°96 to% 0% -1096 YEAR f. Share of total U.S. trade The pattern of export and import growth through the Los Angeles Customs District in the past few years reflects trends in merchandise trade throughout the country. In fact, as Figure 2-7 shows, the LACD has steadily increased its share of U.S. trade—on both the export and the import side of the ledger—since the early 1970s. Page 2-14 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan AM Chapter Two • The Economy Fgure 2-7 Los Angeles Customs District Share of U.S. Merchandise Trade 14% 12% 1096 t996 6% 4% NO 296 w . YEAR 0 Exports ❑Imports Despite the region's deep recession and slow gross domestic product (GDP) growth for some large trading partners such as Japan, in 1992 the overall volume of trade through the area's ports increased by 8.1 percent—still outpacing the 7.7 percent national increase. In 1993 the Los Angeles Customs District passed New York as the nation's largest center for foreign trade. The SCAG regional economic forecast recognizes the opportunities from foreign trade. All national forecasters expect foreign trade to grow at roughly twice the rate of the domestic economy in the years ahead—even without including added growth in exports from the proposed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). International trade will remain a key component of the region's changing economic base. Strategies to enhance the region's competitiveness as a center for international trade and investment are a significant component of the regional economic strategy outlined in Section D. g. Tourism and Entertainment: Star Performers Tourism and entertainment is one of the most important growth sectors in the region's economic base. As defined in our tables, this sector includes the hotel, motion picture, and amusement industries. Tourism creates employment in other sectors as well, such as restaurants, retail stores, car rental agencies and air travel. From a base of 107,000 jobs in 1972, the sector expanded by more than 130 percent to include almost 250,000 jobs in 1992. This was the region's second highest employment growth rate, after Professional Services. Another sign of the impact of tourism and entertainment in Southern California is that in 1992, for the first time, these industries provided more jobs than the defense-related sector (see Figure 2-8). Moreover, SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-15 Chapter Two • The Economy the region increased its share of the national industry steadily until 1992, when recession and the civil disturbances halted growth temporarily. Figure 2-8 Tourism and Entertainment Sector Overtakes Defense Thousands of Jobs 400 350 \ 300 250 200 150 100 50 —Defense Related —Tourism and Entert. The long-term outlook for tourism and entertainment is positive. Rising incomes nationwide and worldwide will support above-average growth rates in all segments of these industries. Moreover, they provide jobs at a variety of wage levels from high-wage full-time jobs in motion pictures and television to lower-wage full- and part-time jobs in the hotel and amusement sectors. The tourism and entertainment sector will continue to make a significant contribution to the regional economy as long as firms in the region are able to maintain their competitive position in this rapidly changing industry. The short-term picture has been mixed. 0 The recession and riots both depressed the tourism industry in 1992. • On the other hand, film starts reached a record high in 1993 and Southern California's share of U.S. film production is on the rise again. Within SCAG's six counties, where total wage and salary employment is still running 1-2 percent below year-ago levels, employment in the motion picture industry has been 12-15% above year-earlier levels—the only large sector with job growth anywhere near double-digits. For the long term, the sector has been a star performer, as Figure 2-9 illustrates. Moreover, Disney is moving ahead with plans for a major expansion of Disneyland in Anaheim and Universal is growing its amusement holdings. Page 2-16 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy Whether the region's share of U.S. and world employment in these areas can continue to climb is a question for our regional economic strategy. Both the tourism and entertainment industries have raised concerns about the competitiveness of this area as a home base—in particular regarding permitting and regulatory issues. h. Diversified Manufacturing: A Traditional Regional Strength One way that the SCAG region economy overcame past defense cuts was capitalizing on growth opportunities elsewhere in manufacturing. Between 1972 and 1989, jobs in the region's Figure 2-9 Tourism and Entertainment SCAG Region Share of U.S. Jobs (Percent) 9.2% 9.0% 8.8% 8.6% e.4% 8.2% s.o% 7.E96 7.696 7.4% 7.2% 7.0% o� 4�o41 obo' � a` p � diversified manufacturing sector increased by more than 150,000 while similar jobs declined nationwide. As a result, the regional share of the national sector grew from 4.3 percent in 1972 to 5.4 percent in 1989. With more than 700,000 jobs even in the current recession, diversified manufacturing remains a significant component of the region's economic base. The largest industries in the sector in terms of production and jobs are apparel, fabricated metal products, plastics, chemicals, publishing, and furniture. While a small portion r' of this sector serves defense industries, the vast majority of jobs are linked to civilian markets. Apparel has been one of the star performers with a steadily growing local job base even though deep job declines have been experienced nationwide (see Figure 2-10). In 1992 apparel accounted for 110,800 jobs and textiles another 13,500. Together apparel and textile production was almost $10 billion and accounted for more jobs than the aircraft sector. Apparel has prospered in the face of foreign competition because Los Angeles has become an international design center. Since 1989, the region's diversified manufacturing sector has declined in absolute size and lost a share of the national job pool. Part of the decline is associated with defense cuts and part with the region's deep construction slump. However, some diversified manufacturing firms have left the region for other reasons, SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-17 Chapter Two • The Economy and there is deep concern that a deteriorating business climate is threatening the region's competitive position in this key sector. Figure 2-10 Apparel Jobs in the SCAG Region (n Thousands and as a % of U.S. Apparel Jobs) 120 12 110 -------------------- 11 ----------------- 1-- 10 01� /� ai -------------- =---- 9 Z g0 / a J00 1e) — ----- / ------ 8 / C 80 ftig&scale) 7 --- ------ -------- m 70-- /> 8 a 7�------------------- 5 50 p4 Percent Of U.S. -Thousands Of Jobs Regaining a competitive advantage for diversified manufacturing industries is one key focus for the regional economic strategy outlined below. i. Professional Services Are the Region's Biggest Employer Professional service industries have become the largest sector in the region's economic base with almost 800,000 jobs in 1992. Job growth has been very rapid with a gain of more than 140 percent since 1972. Moreover, professional services will provide the largest component of potential future job growth in the region's economic base. The region serves markets throughout California, the nation, and worldwide in industries like software, engineering and management services, and portions of the legal services, business services, and higher- education sectors. Professional services often serve manufacturing industries. For example, Southern California is a major center for automobile design despite the absence of substantial car production in the region. The competition for professional service jobs, usually paying high wages, points out the challenge in developing a competitiveness strategy for the region. While mature manufacturing industries often rank labor and other business costs as the dominant location factor, professional service industries more often value a Page 2-18 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Y au Chapter Two • The Economy highly educated work force and quality of life considerations such as good schools, efficient transportation, a healthy environment, and world class recreation and entertainment opportunities. J. 11iigh Technology: Jobs for the Future National and worldwide demand for the products of technology will make sales of technology-based goods and services a leading growth market in the 1990s and beyond. Traditional measure of high-technology manufacturing included the computer, electronic components, and instruments sectors. Now, however, growth is also becoming significant in other markets such as environmental technology, bio-tech, and advanced transportation technology. Historically, defense-related industries have dominated the region's technology sector while the civilian sector has been larger to the north in Silicon Valley. Public—private partnership efforts now underway, like CALSTART and Project California, represent an attempt by the region and state to seize the initiative and stake out a substantial competitive position in the technology markets of the future. A significant component of the regional economic strategy elaborated in Section E is likewise devoted to this end. 2. THE IMPACT OF RECESSION The recession that struck California and the nation in the middle of 1990 still has not relaxed its grip on the SCAG region, even though signs of a recovery in the U.S. economy have been evident for more than a year. The text and graphs below illustrate the seriousness of this recession vis-a-vis previous business cycles in Southern California, in terms of employment, unemployment, taxable sales, construction, home prices, and local government revenues. • Employment Figure 2-11 on the next page shows year-to-year percentage changes in the number of people employed in the SCAG region. This figure traces the effects of business cycle recessions and recoveries from the early 1970s through the early 1990s. National (and regional) recessions occurred in 1974-75, 1981-82, and from mid- 1990 onward. The bars below the line represent absolute declines (negative changes) in employment. What is striking is the trend in job losses over time, with each recession resulting in a larger percentage decline than its predecessor. In addition to being deeper, the current recession in this area is already more prolonged than the 1974-75 and 1981-82 episodes. Employment fell by roughly 3 percent in both 1991 and 1992 and will register a further drop in 1993. Expressed in terms of the number of jobs lost, non-farm payroll employment in the SCAG region peaked in December 1989. Between that point and the middle of 1993, more than 550,000 wage and salary jobs disappeared in the 6-county area. To put that figure into perspective, for every 100 jobs lost in California during this recession, 75 were from the SCAG region; nearly 65 of those jobs came from Los Angeles I County alone. 1 ' I I SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-19 I Chapter Two • The Economy Figure 2-11 GROWTH OF EMPLOYMENT* IN SCAG REGION PERCENT S 6 2 SEMEN 0 I -2 -6 Source: Employment Development Department. • Non-Agricultural Wage and Salary Employment • Unemployment Figure 2-12 shows how the number of job seekers unable to find work has ballooned since 1989. While it is true that a rise in the number of people looking for work is partly a function of(working-age) population growth, the graph shows that unemployment can also fall even when population is steadily increasing: notice the downward trend in the number of jobless between 1983 and 1988, a period during which the labor force in Southern California grew by 16 percent. Page 2-20 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy Fgure 2-12 YEARLY AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE SCAG REGION* (Thousands) boo am- .500-I o 400 , i 90o aoo spy. rp 'SCAG 09M.Ates based Oe daft pmwded by E"VWr "Dv-ia sa DePw^�" It is also evident from Figure 2-12 that the jump in the number of people out of work during the current recession has already surpassed that of the 1981-82 recession. Worse, unemployment is a so-called "lagging" economic indicator, meaning that it continues to rise even after the trough of the business cycle has been passed. At this writing, we have no solid signs that the latter has occurred; thus we can anticipate yet higher jobless totals for 1993 and probably 1994 as well. r Figure 2-13 TAXABLE SALES IN THE SCAG REGION, 1980-1992• REAL VALUE ADJUSTED BY 1962-1964 AVERAGE CP1 120 { 100 h Z O 00 J m b 40 14P 141 1* 1$ 141 14P 1e 1* 14P 14# 14P 141 14p YEAR C Source:State Board of Equalization. • 1992 figure is estimated based on the first quarter number SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-21 Chapter Two • The Economy • heal taxable sales The revenue derived from taxes on sales is a crucial component of the revenue structure of state, county, and municipal governments in California. Retail trade is also a major source of jobs. In 1992, this sector provided nearly a million jobs, slightly less than 15 percent of the regional total. Figure 2-13 illustrates the impact of the ongoing recession on taxable sales in the six-county SCAG region. The graph shows sales adjusted for the effects of inflation; it thus portrays the volume of activity. Between 1989 and 19928, real taxable sales (i.e., adjusted for inflation) plunged by 13.9 percent and continued to fall. In the last recession (1981-82), by contrast, real taxable sales declined by only 7.9 percent before heading up again. Thus state and local governments have taken a serious, prolonged revenue hit. Figure 2-14 TOTAL • OF • REGION,SCAG :0 In to Source Construction industry Research Board • Permit activity Building permits are a leading indicator of construction activity. Figure 2-14 shows the dollar value of planned construction represented by permits issued throughout the region for all uses—residential, commercial and industrial. (Similar graphs for each of these three uses can be found in Appendix 2.) In 1.990, as business activity fell and unemployment began to rise, vacancy rates in commercial buildings also started to rise and enterprises ceased investing in unneeded space. Housing demand ebbed and the upshot has been a precipitous drop in building permit valuation since 1989. The subsequent downturn in construction activity—which had not ceased as of mid-1993—explains the unprecedented fall in construction employment of late 1991 and 1992. All in all, the recent experience makes the previous (1982) cyclical downturn in permits look like a tiny dip. 1992 figure is estimated by SCAG based on the first quarter 1992 number. Page 2-22 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy • Home prices and their impact on local government revenues. Having risen by 10-20 percent or more in both 1988 and 1989, prices of existing single-family homes suddenly dropped throughout most of the SCAG region in 1990 and 1991 (see Figure 2-15). The exception was the Riverside-San Bernardino MSA, where existing home prices kept climbing, although at a much slower pace. Along with the drop in value of individual transactions, turnover (number of homes sold) slumped, seriously affecting government receipts from property taxes. The commercial and industrial building market was, if anything, a worse drag on local government finances. Combined with the slump in sales tax receipts, the turnaround in property tax revenues put local government (city and county) in its worst fiscal straits in decades. The result? Cost-cutting efforts that invariably involved layoffs, aggravating the unemployment situation. Figure 2-15 MEDIAN SALE PRICE OF EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES (%Change from year-earlier) PERCENT 25 20 I I I i I I I I I 15 I I I I I I I I I 10 5 I I I I I I I I i I I i I I r 0 rm I I I I I I I I I -5 I I I I I I i I I 10 1963 1984 1985 1986 1987 1968 1989 1990 1991 1992 Los Angeles ❑Orange ®Rrv/SB ®Ventura - 3. ECONOMIC TRANSITIONS In addition to the deleterious effects of the 1990-93(?) recession, and undoubtedly more important in the long run, the region was simultaneously confronting profound economic transitions, or structural changes. The principal ones identified in SCAG's work with area businesses are the following: a Reduced defense spending, including the impacts of base closures. • Implementation of air quality regulations. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-23 Chapter Two • The Economy O Impacts on industry. o Impacts on transportation and land use. • Changing demographics of the work force. • Water availability and quality. • A possible North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. • Structural changes in industry (labor requirements), including a major shakeup in the financial sector. All of these forces will affect the operation of the regional economy during the next 10 to 20 years, and each raises issues for private and public sector decision makers. For example, there is little disagreement that defense cuts have had a negative impact on total employment in the region. The issues are the following: Should defense spending reductions be a concern to the entire region, or only to individual workers and firms? Even if the defense cut transition is offset by other positives in the regional economic outlook, what of individual workers and companies? Can they make the transition to new jobs and products? Should their transition be of concern to the rest of the region's residents? How should closed military facilities be used in order to maximize the economic growth and competitiveness of the region? In the environmental area there is concern that the implementation of air quality regulations by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) will lead or even force manufacturing firms to leave the region. Despite an enormous amount of conflicting debate on this question little real evidence has emerged. Thus the question is still unanswered: are environmental regulations a threat to the Southern California economy? Even if, on the whole, regional economic growth can continue while we clean the air, there will clearly be gainers and losers. Some industries, such as furniture, may find meeting the regulations too costly or difficult. On the other hand, new firms will almost certainly evolve to provide the technology, equipment and services to reduce emissions. Many changes in the region's transportation system will also be required as a result of federal and state mandates to reduce pollution. Automobiles will be redesigned, new transportation systems will be built, and the cost of driving alone will go up. Gasoline taxes, vehicle emission fees, elimination of employer-paid parking, toll roads, and congestion pricing are all being seriously examined, if not already mandated, within the state or the region. The most dramatic transition of all is already underway in Southern California's labor force. A wave of demographic change is sweeping the region. Nearly all of the future population and labor force growth will be Hispanic and Asian, and most of the new residents and workers will be recent immigrants or children of recent immigrants. These demographic changes, coupled with the rising skills requirements of new jobs in the region, raise the possibility of a serious jobs/skills mismatch in the years ahead. It is important to note, however, that this Page 2-24 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan f Chapter Two • The Economy potential mismatch is an issue that cuts across all ethnic groups. There is strong evidence that the labor force preparation of students graduating from Americans high schools is deteriorating regardless of ethnic origin or immigrant status. As for skills requirements, research conducted by SCAG for the Ford Foundation on regional work force and economic development issues points to the rapidly-changing nature of middle level jobs. Intermediate level job opportunities are not shrinking, on the whole, but such positions are moving from the factory to the office. Skills requirements are shifting from manual to interpersonal. The state and regional water resource control boards are implementing vigorous policies to protect Southern California's water quality. At the same time, increasing demands for water in the region are running into limits on long-term water supply. Both water quality and supply issues raise the possibility of altering the relative competitiveness of industries in the region. Further, the introduction of market pricing into the water supply-demand equation—various proposals for which are under discussion in Sacramento—would undoubtedly alter traditional ways of doing business and lead to employment shifts in many sectors of industry. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will extend the benefits of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (1988) to Mexico, creating the world's largest free-trade zone: 360 million consumers and a total GDP of more than $6.5 trillion. Trade liberalization always produces industries that gain and industries that lose. What will be the impacts—both positive and negative—of NAFTA or other trade expansion initiatives on the Southern California economy? Finally, industry in this region, as in the United States generally, has undergone profound structural change in the past several years. Developments that have significantly affected both the business climate and the level of employment include the following: 1. The boom in mergers and acquisitions. 2. A virtual revolution in methods of financing business (high priority on restoring "health" to balance sheets, and a myriad of innovations in the securities markets). 3. The "lean and mean" approach to balance sheets affected not only financial management but also personnel management: employment was "downsized" to the maximum extent possible to cut costs and many functions formerly performed by full-time employees were "out-sourced" to save on overhead expense. 4. Computerization and the electronics/telecommunications revolution boosted labor productivity, further reducing the number of workers required to produce a given level of output. 5. The near-collapse of the financial sector in the wake of the savings and loan and junk-bond debacles of the 1980s. To some extent, these shifts were necessitated or accelerated by the severity of the region's recession. In large part, however, they are the result of intensified national and international competition, a factor that must be dealt with in a long-term, strategic context. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-25 Chapter Two • The Economy The economic transitions we have been discussing all raise certain common questions. • Will the change negatively affect the regional economy? • Who are the individual gainers and losers? • Are there "least cost" strategies to seek in responding to these transitions? • Does every transition require a policy response? Aerospace workers laid off as a result of cutbacks in defense spending share their experiences with furniture workers displaced by the cost of air quality regulations and farm workers affected by water constraints or free trade with Mexico. By addressing the commonality of the experience, policy-makers and the public will recognize that many individuals and firms are being simultaneously affected by economic forces beyond their control. The; common dimensions of transitions the region is undergoing must be charted to develop the proper constituency for policy responses. Residents and decision makers are interested in the future of the regional economy as a whole. Thus all transitions need to be examined simultaneously. The impacts of defense cuts on the region's manufacturing base must be looked at in the context of other forces such as air quality regulations and water issues—as well as positive forces such as growth in world trade and technology. 4. THE ISSUE OF ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS Although there are, as discussed earlier, a number of areas of strength in the region's economic base, there can be no doubt that Southern California's competitiveness has suffered in recent years. Whether the measure is job growth or gains in real per capita income, the Southern California economy is currently trailing the nation. The situation in manufacturing is indicative. That the number of manufacturing jobs in the region has declined comes as no surprise. Indeed, for the country as a whole, both employment and the share of manufacturing in GDP have been declining for a number of years. What is disturbing is that manufacturing employment and output in the SCAG region have been falling relative to the rest of the nation. Figure 2-16 shows the ratio of SCAG region employment to total U.S. employment in manufacturing. Note the pronounced downturn since 1987, as well as the fact that in neither of the two previous recessions shown (1974-75 and 1981-82) did Southern California's share decline (i.e., as long as both the U.S. and the region are in recession at the same time, recession per se does not explain loss of share. Part: of the post-1987 drop is the product of cutbacks in federal defense spending and the region's over dependence on defense-related industry. For the most part, however, the fall in the ratio reflects an exodus of manufacturing facilities from the Southland and loss of markets to other competitors in the U.S. and abroad. To be sure, manufacturing is not the only type of activity we need in Southern California. Neither, however, is it the only area in which we have a competitiveness problem. Since 1987, the region's share of national employment has fallen in all major (single-digit SIC) employment classifications but one: government. Page 2-26 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan i A � 1 Chapter Two • The Economy Even if today's business climate were Figure 2-16 satisfactory, the challenge of maintaining regional economic competitiveness grows so""""W"C~EWLC"Mff AS A OF US.M"&WACt'R"G euvtnwv+r• greater each year. Firms in an increasing PERCENT number of industries have a choice of sites e around the world for the location of new and expanded facilities. Firms can choose not just between Southern California and Texas but between California, Japan, Mexico, Malaysia, and European locations. s This is particularly true in high value added industries. s Under these circumstances what does it a mean for Southern California to be �f���'q F6.1b.1%`q�0q,°' ��� N h� N 0�°fti competitive in attracting high paying jobs? The main determinant of industry location in Wag'�'�py Empi of tabor and Emp�oyrr�ent Development Departrtient • � �n wart the long term is whether or not a region has competitive resources. Regional policy makers need to be concerned with four major categories of competitive resources, which are considered to be the foundations of economic growth. • A Competitive Work force. • Competitive Infrastructure. • A Competitive Quality of Life. • Competitive Business Climate. The following is a brief discussion of each of these resources. Each of the other RCP chapters contain detailed strategies for improving these foundations. a. Work force Quality Business location studies consistently show that the quality of an area's work force is the principal determinant of long-term location/expansion decisions. All recent studies of California's business climate also agree that our kindergarten through 12th-grade educational system needs serious attention and reform. Budget cuts are increasingly putting the state's higher educational system at risk. The Human Resources and Services chapter of the RCP deals in considerable detail with strategies for improving the quality of the region's work force. b. Infrastructure Infrastructure is also a key determinant of business location. Can people, goods, and information be moved quickly and at competitive costs? In the 1990s telecommunications networks—which determine how fast and efficiently information can be moved—will be a new area of infrastructure competition. Infrastructure also includes providing adequate supplies of water and energy and handling the waste products of industry and SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-27 Ili loi inii ' ( 1 Chapter Two • The Economy people. The latter are dealt with in the Water Resources, Water Quality, and Waste Management chapters of this plan. Numerous studies in the 1980s documented California's infrastructure backlog. A recent report by the California Council for Environmental and Economic Balance (CCEEB) sums up the current situation: "In California, deferred maintenance and low investment in our infrastructure has caused us to lose our economic edge, has led to increased social tensions, and threatens the beauty and viability of our natural environment. No conscientious homeowner would let a house deteriorate to the current shape of our California home. Our state's infrastructure has been the solid foundation of California's economic miracle. The decline of that infrastructure is the most serious crisis we face, and is an important factor underlying the economic malaise California faces in the 1990s and beyond."' As the CCEEB report states, public investment in the 1950s and 1960s averaged 20 percent of state spending. By the 1980s, public investment had declined to less than 5 percent of the state's spending. c.)uality of life The: second strategic goal of the RCP is to improve the quality of life in the SCAG region.10 Quality of life is a business location determinant as well as a social goal. In fact, education and infrastructure also address social goals while affecting Southern California's competitiveness as a business location. Quality of life includes environmental amenities, adequate resources to combat crime, cultural resources, affordable housing, and efficient transportation systems. Quality-of-life variables are particularly important in attracting and retaining high value added basic industry. Since such companies are welcome virtually anywhere in the world, only areas that compete well on quality of life, as well as business costs and infrastructure, will prove successful. Factors affecting, and objectives for improving, the quality of life in the SCAG region are discussed in detail in the Strategy chapter (Chapter 1) of the RCP. d. Business Climate Deterioration in Southern California's business climate was a major contributor to the region's relative economic decline in the past few years. Adverse factors in the business outlook included perceived anti- business policies at the state and local levels and the severity of the area's recession, which has been both deeper and more prolonged than elsewhere in the state and the country as a whole. Rules and regulations have been a principal focus in many recent analyses of California's business climate. Major complaints from the business community are about the following: °Our Endangered California Home,California Council for Environmental&Economic Balance, 1992. 10 Subregion input:Los Angeles City,West Riverside Council of Governments. Page 2-28 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy . • A workers' compensation system with high premiums and relatively low benefits. • Complicated and lengthy permit processes for most economic development projects (land use, construction, operating permits). • Complex and costly procedures required to meet environmental regulations. Rules and regulations are a factor in business location along with work force, infrastructure, and quality of life considerations. Southern California cannot ignore the implications of permit processes on location decisions any more than the state can ignore the implications of educational funding decisions on this region's economic competitiveness. A fundamental objective of the RCP is to develop effective methods for coordinating and simplifying regulatory processes so that the purpose of the regulation is achieved, but at a lower administrative and implementation cost. Each RCP chapter will examine the cost of meeting the appropriate public policy objectives and suggest ways to reduce these costs. On the positive side, the challenge of restoring competitiveness carries within it the seeds of a solution. The combination of recession and structural change which has so dimmed the outlook in Southern California may eventually turn out to have been the best thing to happen to this region since motion pictures. The reason: economic adversity such as that we are presently experiencing forces people to think in ways they never would have, to move in directions they would never have dreamed of taking. Necessity is the mother of invention. Professor Michael Porter of Harvard, author of the influential book The Competitive Advantage of Nations, puts it this way: The fundamental lesson is that the quiet life is an enemy of competitive advantage. Industries thrive when they are forced to overcome high labor costs or a lack of natural resources, when their customers won't accept inferior or outmoded products, when their local competitors are many and murderous, and when government offers no protection from fair competition and sets tough technical and regulatory standards." Clearly, many of these conditions exist in Southern California today. Porter's findings, which are now mainstream thinking, are the basis for optimism that the present situation can be corrected. Long term planning can assist in this process by maintaining a regional, "big picture" perspective and by stirring things up; i.e., by delineating strategies for the public and private sectors to follow and, if necessary, by prodding the appropriate players into action. "Fonune,March 12, 1990,p. 95. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-29 Chapter Two • The Economy D. SCAG'S LONG-TERM FORECAST The SCAG regional forecast foresees job growth of more than 2.6 million and population gains of almost 6 million between 1990 and 2010. Total jobs in SCAG's six counties are projected to increase from 7.1 million in 1990 to 9.7 million in 2010—a gain of over 37 percent (see Table 2-3). In view of recent declines in employment—especially in construction and defense-related—this is a substantial increase. Yet it is well below the region's historical performance: in the 18 years from 1972 through 1990 employment in the SCAG region jumped by more than 66 percent. Table 2-3 SCAG Region Population and Jobs (Thousands) Current Forecast 1989 GMP Forecast 1990 2010 Percent 2010 Change Population 14,641 20,507 40.1% 18,256 Employment 7,060 9,679 37.1.% 8,954 Projected employment growth will support a population of approximately 20.5 million residents in 2010. The region's population will grow by 5.9 million or 40.1 percent. The current forecast is almost 2.3 million higher in 2010 than the population forecast in the 1989 Growth Management Plan (GMP). Details on the region's population growth and characteristics can be found in the Growth Management chapter of the RCP. Why will there be so many jobs and people in the region, one might ask. Southern California's growth is deliendent on two main factors: 1. The number of additional people and jobs in the nation. 2. The share (percentage) of those jobs and people that chooses to locate in the SCAG region. Rising birth rates and growing immigration levels have led the Census Bureau to dramatically raise their U.S. population projections. Approximately 50 million new residents are now expected by 2010 compared with the previous projection of 33 million. Fifty million new residents in the United States will require the creation of almost 35 million more jobs between 1990 and 2010. When the 1989 GMP was prepared the outlook was for only 27 million new jobs by 20110. Thus, one major reason the new SCAG forecast is higher is that the pool of new jobs and population that the region is competing for is much larger than previously expected. SCAG forecasts the region's share of the nation's added jobs and population by 1) analyzing the region's expected share of new jobs separately for each of 49 basic industries; 2) deriving from these a set of forecasts of'21 local '("non-basic") industries based on analysis of trends in the ratio of non-basic to basic jobs; and 3) incorporating region specific birth rate and labor force assumptions by ethnic group to reflect the region's chmging demographic characteristics. Page 2-30 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy Job growth in the region's economic base is shown in Table 2-4. Southern California is expected to gain further from strong growth in the professional services and tourism and entertainment sectors—each with projected job growth of near 70 percent. Continued brisk expansion of foreign trade will support these sectors as well as the region's transportation and wholesale trade firms. Table 2-4 SCAG Region Economic Base Forecast (Thousands of Jobs) Percent Growth 1992 2010 1992-2010 Professional Services 798.8 1342.0 68.0% Diversified Manufacturing 721.8 876.0 21.4% Transp. & Whlsale Trade 526.5 769.7 46.2% Tourism & Entertainment 248.3 414.6 67.0% Defense Related 236.2 250.3 6.0% F High Tech Manufacturing 111.9 128.0 14.4% Resource Based 116.8 126.7 8.5% Total Base Jobs 2,760.3 3,907.4 41.6% Manufacturing is projected to show a modest rebound from today's depressed job levels, with diversified manufacturing, now its largest component, posting a 21 percent increase in employment. The defense related sector will also grow eventually as a result of gains in jobs producing for the commercial aircraft market. Table 2-5 on the next page shows SCAG's employment forecast organized by major industry group (single- digit SIC codes), a classification that facilitates comparisons with the 1989 GMP forecast. With three exceptions, the new 2010 totals are all higher than in the 1989 GMP. The interesting part of the comparison is that 2010 employment is projected to be lower than in our previous forecast in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Mining and farm jobs are projected to decline in the region both vis-a-vis 1990 and relative to the old forecast. More capital intensive methods of production and housing demand pressures on land use and land values are the major factors behind employment losses in these two sectors. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-31 ' 1 1 Chapter Two • The Economy Table 2-5 ...... .... EMPI:t3 ......... 9 5. rreAta. 1 �� C. ; ntrst rcd 4POSF 'Erce �jv�rcl� 1990-2010 2010 Forecast Growth Current 1990 Actual 1989 Forecast GMT Current (Percent) Agriculture 59 66 51 -13.0 Mining 14 21 12 -15.4 Construction 299 300 370 23.8 Manufacturing 1,230 1,514 1,239 0.8 Transportation and Public Utilities 305 408 422 38.5 Trade (Wholesale and Retail) 1,502 1,928 2,125 41.5 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 432 550 595 37.7 Services 1,775 2,612 3,011 69.6 Government 860 880 1,075 25.0 Self-Employed 537 610 709 31.9 Sub-total 7,012 8,890 9,609 37.0 Imperial County (all jobs) 48 N.A. 70 45.8 ax SCAB Region TvtaI N.A. = Not Available Table 2-5 shows the big picture on manufacturing. Combining all its parts, manufacturing employment overall shows virtual stagnation over the forecast period. In stark contrast, the 1989 GMP projected a total of 1.5 million factory jobs in 2010, almost 275,000 more than the current forecast and an increase of 23 percent from the actual manufacturing employment level in 1990. The difference results from the combination of two forces: slower growth in U.S. manufacturing jobs and the permanent loss of employment from this region due to defense spending cuts, business restructuring, and business relocations. The distribution of jobs among the major categories in 2010 is also considerably different now than in previous forecasts. By 2010, the share of manufacturing in total employment in the region falls from 17.4 percent (in 1990) to slightly less than 13 percent. The share of services in the regional total meanwhile rises frorn slightly more than 25 percent to more than 31 percent. Page 2-32 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan a r Chapter Two • The Economy Combining SCAG's forecasts of population, labor force and jobs indicates that if nothing else changes, the region's labor force during the 20-year Plan period would exceed the number of jobs here by about 8-1/2 percent on average; by the year 2010 this gap would still be on the order of 6-7 percent. In other words, the region's hypothetical unemployment rate in 2010 would still be about one percentage point higher than the national average forecast by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics—quite apart from any additional negative impacts if the region happened to be in recession at that point. To put that into perspective, the SCAG region's jobless rate has typically run well below the corresponding U.S. average in non-recessionary periods (see Figure 2-17). The "something" that must change to bring this relationship back to normal is the adoption of a regional economic strategy to revive and expand basic industry. We turn to this subject in the next section of this chapter. Fgure 2-17 DIFFERENCE* BETWEEN SCAG AND U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE** PERCENT 3.0 2.0 ————————————————————————— 1.0 - --------------------- o.o IA I'll I'll AA YY 14P le 1*14P 14,140 14F 1$ 14P 140 14P 14114P $o1/p:BWMU of a ftosks wW EmpWymwt DMlopm 11 apobvwn SLAG ulN PkNww l raft mR U.S.ue@nploV" d IW Not wanWy adWed SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-33 • I . Chapter Two • The Economy E. STRATEGIES FOR ECONOMIC PROSPERITY AND EQUITY The decline in basic industry's share of total regional employment and output must be reversed. Basic industry has large multiplier effects on the economy and jobs, as well as higher wages and benefits than most other types of economic activity. More specifically, the region must increase its share of employment in those industries and service sectors where wages and salaries will be higher than average and where growth nationwide and internationally is expected to be strong. As noted earlier, however, many of the nation's industrial states and regions will no doubt be setting the same sorts of goals. Southern California must therefore focus its efforts on those industries in which it also has comparative advantage. The four "T"s—trade, transportation, technology, and tourism/entertainment—for example, meet most of the criteria specified above. Manufacturing sectors such as pollution control equipment and biomedical devices also appear promising. More will be said about such industries later. 1 . INTRODUCTION: THE NEED FOR A REGIONAL FOCUS How can the region exploit its comparative advantages? An improving business climate is necessary but not sufficient. An entirely new approach is called for; new forms of industrial organization, a new breed of entrepreneur, and substitution of market solutions for government controls wherever possible. Market and employment share can only be increased by raising the level of investment in the region. An adequate level and proper mix of public and private investment are the keys to strengthening competitiveness, boosting employment and securing long term gains in personal income and living standards. Current regional economic thinking identifies two fundamental factors that influence which regions will attract investment and achieve strong gains in real income: the organization of key industrial clusters and the economic foundations that support them. These concepts—industrial clusters and economic foundations — form the basis for the strategies laid out below to enhance the economic competitiveness of the SCAG region economy. a. What are Clusters and Why are they Important? Joint Venture: Silicon Valley, a two-year old effort to develop a regional economic strategy for basic industry in Northern California's Silicon Valley, answers these questions in the following manner. In the most advanced economies worldwide, one or more industry clusters serve as the driving force of the regional economy. At the core of the cluster are geographic concentrations of interdependent; internationally competitive firms in related industries. These firms can include companies that make or help make a final product, as well as specialized suppliers and service providers. Clusters include large companies and small companies, domestic and foreign firms. Supporting the cluster firms are specialized economic foundations in areas such as work force, technology, new business support, and communications/information infrastructure. Foundations are provided both by the public sector (e.g., universities, airports) and by companies (e.g., venture capital firms, marketing firms). Page 2-34 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy A salient feature of clusters is that they are self-regenerating, their elements mutually synergistic and energizing. Intense competition and close cooperation spur innovation across industries. The specialized, fluid work force and the geographic proximity make information accessible and reduce transactions costs within the region. As they develop, cluster firms create demand for new types of products and services, some of which can be supplied by existing or new local firms. Customers or partners of local companies can be attracted to the cluster and the region. In short, the cluster dynamic gives companies and their regions a competitive leg-up against others. Without healthy clusters, the rest of a region's economy — retail, services, and government — cannot prosper. In addition to selling their products and services locally, cluster firms sell globally and bring outside dollars into the region. These dollars pump up the regional economy as firms buy products from other sectors in the area. Their employees also spend their paychecks at local stores and restaurants, and buy local homes. This "multiplier effect" of high—tech industries is exceptionally strong." b. Why is a Regional Strategy Focus Needed? Successful industrial clusters are almost always found in well-defined regions. Whatever the precise reasons, the evidence clearly suggests that they work best with the "glue" of a region to bind them. In Southern California, major producers and many key suppliers are spread throughout the region in aircraft, apparel, motion pictures, and tourism. We think of these sectors as areas of strength in Southern California's regional economy. In Northern California the electronics and computer clusters define the economic base of Silicon Valley. Regions with expanding economies, whether in Austin, Texas, in Italy, or in Japan, have discovered the value of an active collaboration between the private and public sectors. An active dialogue between private industry - and the public sector is helpful no matter what the challenge is; whether developing infrastructure (ports, airports, highways) to support the growth of foreign trade or strategies to ensure that the K-12 education system is a competitive economic foundation for regional growth and prosperity. The fact is, those regional economies that are succeeding in today's global marketplace are regions where people are talking and acting together. c. What are the Basic Responsibilities of the Private Sector? The private sector needs to develop a collaborative approach to production, including shared technology and basic research. Activity is already underway in Southern California to implement such an approach. But much more needs to be done in the area of organizing industrial clusters. Private industry and labor will also have to cooperate with and supplement the public sector in educating and training labor for technical specialties. Relationships will have to be forged in basic research; i.e., among individual firms and between them and California's excellent universities." [Expand—include flexible manufacturing] 12 Blueprint for a 21st Century Community, Joint Venture: Silicon Valley, June 1993, pp. 25-26. "subregion input:Noah Los Angeles County. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-35 Chapter Two • The Economy 2. REGIONAL ECONOMIC STRATEGIES CONSORTIUM (RESC) [The ideas discussed in this section are intended as an outline, a potential agenda to be filled in detail by the public/private sector participants in these joint ventures.] To :provide the "glue" necessary to bind the other foundations together, leadership will clearly be required. The 2000 Regional Partnership, SCAG and the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce should form a Regional Economic Strategies Consortium (RESC) comprising representatives of existing regional and subregional development bodies such as Partnership 2010 and the Inland Empire Economic Partnership, labor, industry and trade associations, etc.14 Its precise mission, organizational structure, financing, etc. will be defined by the Consortium leaders and partners. In general terms, the Consortium would: 1. Promote (market) the entire region—both domestically and internationally. A portion of existing promotion funds at all identifiable levels--cities, counties, the Los Angeles Convention and Visitors Bureau, major attractions, port authorities, etc.—should be pooled for the purposes of marketing the region. The idea is to get businesses and tourists to the region, then let the various interests compete for the specific location within it. Voters in the six-county region might even be asked to consider a fractional add-on to sales tax for this purpose. Promotion/marketing would be a specialized economic foundation for the region, supporting of its clusters. One example of a novel (and apparently successful) approach to promotion is contained in the "Massachusetts Initiative," a 1991 plan for economic recovery that enlisted government, business, and academia in a joint effort." The privately sponsored "Massachusetts Ambassador" program consists of a diverse group of 150 "ambassadors". Most are CEOs who agree to personally make three calls or host three receptions for targeted business executives over a two-year period. The ambassadors go to these meetings armed with up-to-date information on the target company and on the principal advantages Massachusetts can offer. 2. Support the development of regional industry clusters. RESC task forces would be organized around specific clusters. A key task would be to determine what foundations will be required for each and how their common features (e.g., training) can be combined. 3. Ensure that proposed changes in public policy do not significantly impair the ability of firms in this region to compete and that So Cal gets its fair share of federal and state assistance in areas that affect the area's competitiveness. Some suggested topics for attention are discussed in subsection B, below. 4. Help secure financial assistance to industry, particularly small and medium-size firms. Creating access to relatively low-cost sources of capital would be another critical foundation area. "RESC concept and organization structure supported by: Arroyo Verdugo Subregion,Los Angeles City, North Los Angeles County,San Gabriel Asm;iation of Cities,Southeast Los Angeles County,South Bay Cities,West Riverside Council of Governments. is Robert Sullivan, "Massachusetts Takes the Initiative,"in Hemispheres, January 1993, pp. 25-26. Page 2-36 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan a� Chapter Two • The Economy The economic strategy developed by SCAG in conjunction with area business, community groups, and the SCAG subregions comprises three major components: first, expanding and diversifying our economic base; second, lowering business costs and increasing competitiveness; and third, a long-term investment in Southern California's communities-in-need. 3. STRATEGIES TO EXPAND AND DIVERSIFY THE REGION'S ECONOMIC BASE A state-of--the-art strategy to energize basic industry16 will require collaboration and cooperation through industrial clusters in order to improve competitiveness and stimulate real fixed investment. The first step is to increase the awareness of both the private and the public sector in the region as to what efforts are already under way toward forming clusters. IDENTIFYING INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS: SECTORS WITH STRONG GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT POTENTIAL As in other economically-developed regions across the country, there are a number of potential clusters in the SCAG region, each with its own unique contribution to make to Southern California's economic base. The list below—which is not meant to be exhaustive—includes the sponsoring organizations identified by SCAG that have agreed to prepare the discussions of these clusters for the final version of the RCP. The list is followed by a brief discussion of each of the clusters for which write-ups are presently available. • The apparel industry (including textiles and fashion design): Southern California Edison Co. • Entertainment: Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers • Tourism (including lodging, transportation, and food): Wedin Enterprises Inc. • Environmental technology: City of Pasadena • Aerospace and defense: The Economic Development Corporation (EDQ of Los Angeles County • Foreign trade services: The Greater Los Angeles World Trade Center Association • Advanced transportation systems and technology: Project California; and "Project Southern California" Regional Economic Strategies Consortium (RESQ • Biomedical equipment industry: Partnership 2010 The Apparel Industry Southern California Edison's apparel industry initiative is an example of the type of effort under way to meet the competitive challenges facing key industries in the region. Based on an analysis of regional economic dynamics, Edison identified the apparel industry, with over 100,000 workers and a complex of additional interlinking supplier and support industries, as one of several key industry clusters that not only manifested a significant locational strength, but had the potential to serve as a growing economic force for the regional economy. "Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo,San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,North Los Angeles County,Southeast Los Angeles County,South Bay Cities Association,West Riverside Council of Governments. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-37 Chapter Two • The Economy The industry's importance as a job provider is magnified by the fact that it employs a large and diverse concentration of immigrants and native minorities. Thus it continues to serve its traditional role as a transition industry for workers who aspire to a better life for themselves and their children. Moreover, apparel is one of the few industries in which many successful entrepreneurs and managers are without college degrees. The Southern California apparel industry cluster promises additional growth and business opportunities because the region is the nexus of design, marketing, and export-related elements as well. Despite the significance and potential of the industry in this region, there are indications that it is facing increasingly difficult competitive challenges. Some of these arise from global changes such as the initiation of]VAFTA, some from the structure of the industry locally—such as the lack of a unified industry voice and continued reliance on old technologies and production systems—and some from the apparent failure of local juriisdictions to pay sufficient attention to the needs of the apparel industry. In :March of 1993, Southern California Edison began hosting a series of Apparel Industry Roundtable meetings in the garment district with leaders from the industry representing manufacturers, contractors, trade organizations, financial agents, training agencies, and unions. These initial meetings have been devoted to identifying the major concerns and needs of the various components that make up this complex industry. At one meeting, for example, the director of the highly successful Garment Industry Development Corporation (GIDC) of New York was flown in to describe the union-originated GIDC project, which has gained widespread participation and involvement by industry and government in its efforts to support and expand the New York City women's apparel industry. The roundtable is now investigating the feasibility of borrowing and adapting such GIDC programs as industry-developed training, technology assistance, specialized marketing efforts and export assistance. Fundamental organizational matters—such as the need to unify Southern California's fragmented local industry, address business climate concerns, and gain local and statewide recognition of the apparel industry cluster as a crucial element in any equation for supporting and expanding the regional economy—also need to be addressed. Entertainment The entertainment industry is, in many important respects, already a functioning industrial cluster. The Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) is currently undertaking the groundwork necessary to ensure that it remains where it is and to maximize its effectiveness. The AMPTP's own description of the project follows. The image of the entertainment industry is inextricably linked to Southern California, but there is concern that its economic benefits to the region may not be. Because it combines relatively minimal demands on infrastructure and the environment with large and diverse expenditures and high-wage employment, the industry is aggressively courted by the leadership of many states and countries. While some aspects of the business require convenient accessibility to others in the industry, a significant portion of the "manufacturing" aspect is highly portable. In the early 1980's California had a near-monopoly on all aspects of the business, although some location production was leaving the state. In the intervening years, studio facilities have developed in New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, Texas, Hawaii, Chicago, Florida, Vancouver and Toronto. Competition for the industry has expanded from location production to back-lot filming and post-production services. Page 2-38 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy As a truly "global" industry, the entertainment industry exports its products to the world and imports dollars to the Southern California region. According to the AMPTP, the entertainment industry is the second-largest contributor to the U.S. balance of trade—second only to aerospace. The entertainment industry is poised on the brink of a major technological transition that is closely linked to the computer and telecommunications industries in California. The industry produces software to travel the coming "electronic superhighway," and is a major market for the rapidly developing computer technologies that can change and improve the product. The synergy of these complementary industries is a critical component of California's future. Despite its economic importance and its long history here, data on the industry's real employment and income impacts on the region are lacking. What studies have been performed have had to rely on secondary data and have focused only on location production, missing large portions of the industry. To remedy this, the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers has retained Monitor Company to conduct an in-depth study, which should be completed in early 1994. The report will have several components: 1. A "map" or discussion of the industry segments, their unique characteristics, and how they interact. 2. Data on employment and spending in the Southern California region. 3. Information on how successful California's competitors have been at attracting the industry to their locales. 4. Recommendations on how to retain and nurture the industry in Southern California. Point four in the list above will serve as a basis for action on industrial collaboration and flexibility; i.e., on improving the efficiency and scope of the entertainment cluster. Environmental Technology According to figures cited in the California Environmental Technology Partnership (CETP) draft strategic plan report (July 16, 1993), the U.S. market for environmental goods and services is $120 billion in annual revenues. California's environmental industry accounts for 17 percent of the U.S. and 7.5 percent of the world market—a $20-25 billion market here already. Global growth prospects are strong, but California's high environmental standards make this perhaps the best market of all for sales and employment growth. Currently, both Arroyo Verdugo subregion and South Bay Cities subregion identify themselves as potential areas for future development and concentration of environmental industry in the SCAG region." The comparative advantages of these two subregions include high-skilled and well-educated labor force, strong engineering research firms, adequate production capacity and available industrial development sites. However, certain barriers impede the movement of new environmental technologies to market. In partnership with business, academia, community, other non-profit organizations, government agencies can work to lower these barriers and foster an environmental industry cluster in Southern California. California Environmental "Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo Subregion and South Bay Cities. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-39 Chapter Two • The Economy Business Opportunities (CEBO)" and the city of Pasadena, which is facilitating an environmental technology cluster linking the city's engineering firms with the research facilities of the California Institute of Technology (Czdtech) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), recently made the following recommendations: • Establish a consolidated public/private analytical laboratory in the region capable of implementing all testing protocols for both the E.P.A. and CAL-EPA. Such a site would facilitate industry development of a "real-conditions" model for field demonstrations and testing of new equipment and systems. • Set up resources centers where businesses can go for help in understanding regulations, meeting permit requirements set up by multiple jurisdictions, and obtaining available technical and financial assistance from both the public and the private sector. • Encourage close cooperation between public education and training bodies and private corporations to train and educate workers to satisfy the special needs of this emerging industry. • Coordinate efforts between public agencies and industry to establish standards and to certify and license the new technology. • Encourage regulators to be more flexible in allowing industry to develop alternative solutions to environmental problems. In other words, set targets in terms of "how much (little)" and "by when" but not "how". An environmental technology cluster should be able to provide alternative methods that can then be evaluated on the basis of cost, export potential and other economic criteria. • Develop purchasing policies for local governments stressing gradual increases in the percentages of recycled materials used by cities and counties. Such policies would help to create a market base for the environmental technology industry. • Resolve disputes over environmental issues through mediation instead of law suits. This would lower the costs of environmental protection as well as providing relief to an overburdened court system.19 Advanced Transpgrtatilon Systems and Technology: Project California . Launched in the summer of 1992 under the mentorship of the California Council on Science and Technology, Project California is a joint venture that now numbers some fifty investors, including many of California's California Fnvimnmental Business opportunities, °1992-1993 Highlights in Brief.° Also we the Strategy Chapter, 'Decision Making, Consensus Building,and Dispute Resolution.' Page 2-40 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy biggest companies and agencies.' Its mission is to create high value-added, long-term job opportunities in the advanced transportation industry for residents of the state of California. The initial stage of Project California, which occupied about one year, was to identify and prioritize those advanced transportation technologies that offer maximum potential for California job creation. Secondary criteria were environmental impact and potential contribution to improving the state's transportation infrastructure. Phase one identified six major technology groupings containing over 700 individual technologies in 24 distinct businesses. A detailed market assessment was then conducted for each of the 24 businesses, including detailed descriptions of current market conditions and forecasts of demand prospects over the next 20 years. Simultaneously, the Project team and their consultants evaluated the likelihood that California could serve as home base for a world-class, competitive cluster of firms using the competitive advantage model developed by Professor Michael Porter of Harvard discussed earlier in this chapter. The transportation technologies that survived this rigorous process are the following: • Electric vehicles (CALSTART)21. • Intelligent vehicle highway systems (IVHS). • "Information Transportation" (advanced telecommunications). • Command, control, and communications systems for public transit. • Research and development in the areas of Maglev (magnetic levitation) trains and fuel cells. CALSTART is the most advanced of these initiatives. It is a non-profit consortium of more than 40 public and private entities developing a California-based hi-tech low-pollution form of transportation. In Southern California, CALSTART is the cornerstone of the defense conversion process. The consortium, which includes aerospace companies and electric utilities along with environmental groups, labor unions and research institutions, will apply defense/aerospace engineering and production expertise to a number of r products and services revolving around electric vehicles. A prototype electric passenger car has already been built ("Showcase Electric Vehicle Project") and projects involving an electric bus/mass transit program and an electric vehicle infrastructure system are on the drawing boards. [discuss CALSTART's emphasis on electric vehicle components] Project California is now in the process of developing specific action agendas in each of these areas, accompanied by a human resources action agenda featuring an Advanced Transportation Training Program. Project California estimates that these activities could generate 200,000 direct manufacturing jobs in California by the year 2000. r Project California will spawn a number of industrial clusters. Southern California is in many ways uniquely positioned to house those clusters. A strategy for doing so, which we will call "Project Southern California" is outlined below. 'Among them are: Hughes Aircraft Co.,Bechtel Civil Inc.,Aerojet General,Allied Signal Aerospace,the Automobile Club of Southern California, L So. Calif Edison Co.,So.Calif Gas Co.,PG&E, Pacific Bell, Los Angeles County Transportation Commission,Ford Motor Corp, BankAmerica Corp. and the California Employment Training Panel. Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo,South bay Cities Association. _'Subregion input: Arroyo Verdugo Subregion,South Bay Cities Association. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-41 Chapter Two • The Economy Proieet Southern California: Linking Employment Needs with Transportation Requirements in the SCAG Region A Project Southern California will be designed to carry forward the initiatives of Project California on Advanced Transportation Systems (ATS). The campaign will be to maximize the "capture" of Project California industry clusters for the SCAG region. This makes sense from a number of different standpoints. First, Southern California firms are preeminent in the production of many of the goods and services an ATS sector will require: transportation equipment, guidance systems, metals and plastics, command and control systems, and sophisticated electronics developed for defense. The design and engineering skills to support these products and technologies are also here, as are the production and delivery infrastructure and basic research capabilities. Second, we have one of the largest (if not the largest) and most diversified markets for transportation products and services in the world. If ever there were a region and a set of industrial clusters that went hand in hand, Southern California and advanced transportation systems are it. Third, the region faces mandates from the both the federal and the state level not only to clean up our mobile source emissions, but to do it within a defined time frame using specified types of advanced transportation equiipment; e.g., electric and clean-fuel vehicles. Among the tasks that will need to be tackled by the RESC using the methodology defined by Project California are: • To expand and elaborate CALSTART—From a "2 percent of fleet" environmental requirement to a world-class industry with components production and assembly operations here in So. Cal. • To devise a strategy to secure the lion's share of basic research under Project California. A research center on advanced transportation systems and technology should be located in the region. This venture would be part of the economic foundations agenda, to be undertaken by the RESC in conjunction with, for example, Caltech, JPL, Cal Poly Pomona, UCLA, USC, Caltrans(?), transportation industry institutes, and leading industrial engineering and design firms. • To coordinate employment training with Project California, the State Employment Training Panel, and local employers in the ATS industry for conversion of the labor force base. • To secure for Southern California the telecommunications "Free Zone" (i.e., regulation-free) proposed by Project Calif. Collaborate on this with entertainment cluster. • To develop a market for ATS products and services, with demand based in part on changes in the region's transportation system recommended in the RCP Regional Mobility chapter (Chapter 4). These recommendations, which are discussed in detail in Chapter 4 under the heading "INNOVATIVE PROJECT SERIES" are outlined below. Page 2-42 • December 1993 SCAG 0 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy The project involves addition of a third tier, dubbed SST (for"Smart Shuttle Transit") to the region's existing two-tier transit system, which consists of intra-regional rail (Metrolink) and inter-urban bus service. The new tier would be made up of intra-urban shared taxis,jitneys, shuttle vans, etc. that would be privately owned and demand-driven, designed to provide fast, frequent service to connect with the other two tiers as well as to provide short haul, door-to-door service. The potential mobility benefits of a community-based SST network include significant additional mode shifts for both home-to-work and non-home-to-work travel and technological spillover benefits resulting from an effective enhancement of existing freeway and arterial capacity. For the regional economy, implementing such a system would provide a large and ready market for the products and services of Project Southern California. It would also be likely to result in a huge saving to the taxpayer by reducing the overall transit system's dependence on subsidized fares. Economies of scale made possible by production for the local market would be an important comparative advantage for the region's businesses in competing for markets outside Southern California. Employment generation and entrepreneurial opportunities would be substantial, both in the production and in the subsequent operation of the system—as individual vehicle or fleet owners, drivers, licensed operators of support activities (e.g., inspection and maintenance), parts suppliers, etc. Very preliminary and conservative calculations made by the modelers of the SST suggest that fleet size could reach 150,000 vehicles over the next 10-15 years and provide 150,000-200,000 new jobs. Part of the work of SCAG's Advanced Transportation Task force and its consultants will be to refine these estimates over time. Biomedical equipment industry. The health care' and biomedical equipment industries are other likely candidates for clustering. Both are areas in which Southern California is, in many respects, already on the leading edge. And both are markets poised to benefit substantially from the Clinton Administration's health care reform plans. Orange County's Partnership 2010 has undertaken to assist in the formation of an industry cluster for biomedical equipment production and technology research, as described below. In Orange County, well-defined and established health care and medical device industry clusters are in the process of linking up with a group of biomedical firms. United, they form a powerful biomedical industry cluster in the region which is positioned for accelerated growth, high wage employment, and global market potential. According to Partnership 2010, Orange County is the top-ranking county in the United States for the manufacture of surgical and medical instruments and number two in pharmaceutical preparations. The county is home to a growing biotechnology cluster leveraging technology and research assets available from the University of California, Irvine (UCI) as well as proximity to the established biotechnology cluster in northern San Diego County. a Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo Subregion,North Los Angeles County. SCAG 0 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-43 Chapter Two • The Economy Additionally, many core technologies available in the defense sector of the region have immediate commercial applications in the biomedical industry sector. These include, for example, lasers and photonics, sensors, robotics, microcomponents, and power supplies. 4. STRATEGIES TO PROMOTE REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS To accomplish the above, cooperation between the public sector and the private sector will be needed. What initiatives are and can be undertaken to lower the costs of doing business in the SCAG region, secure resources from higher levels of government, and improve the business climate? • Local buy-in to a regional economic strategy. It is the responsibility of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), in cooperation wit]i regional businesses, to achieve buy-in at the member city level to the need for expanding the region's economic base. City management and, most importantly, local elected officials must become active partners in the regional economic strategy for at least two reasons: 1. They have the land-use authority and the power to dispense development incentives. 2. Only through city-level understanding and cooperation will the region be able to prevent narrow fiscal/jurisdictional interests from obstructing a regional approach to the economy. Industrial clusters and economic foundations are inherently multi jurisdictional: this message must reach below the county and even sub-regional levels.' • Actions at the state level: [progress on California Council on Competitiveness/ADEPT agenda] • Workers' compensation reform (est. minimum $750 million annual saving).' • Business tax cut package worth $400-500 million's • CEQA reform. • Strategic plan and red tape task forces.' • "red teams".-` • Allowing pension funds, including Cal-PERS, to invest in infrastructure projects • The California Economic Development Strategic Planning Act, which creates a 15-member Economic Strategy Panel and requires the Secretary of Trade and Commerce to review economic development strategies for the state "Letter from Tom Flavin,President, Business-Government Partnership Consulting Services, Inc.to Mark Pisano,Executive Director,SCAG dated May, 18, 1993. Subregion input:San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,West Riverside Council of Governments. Subregion input:Los Angeles City,San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities. Los Angeles City. n Subregion input:San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities. Page 2-44 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy • Housing reform The Housing chapter of the RCP (Chapter 6) deals with policy issues surrounding reestablishment of a competitive housing market, including elimination of government-made distortions. • Exploring market-based approaches to transportation and environmental improvement Market-based methods (as opposed to direct regulation, or command and control) should be implemented wherever feasible to achieve environmental and mobility goals at the lowest possible cost. Examples include the following: 1. Encouraging the South Coast Air Quality Management District to use market-based approaches for achieving air quality goals. The RECLAIM program involving stationary sources of NOx and SOx is the first large-scale test of the substitutability of a market for direct controls. 2. Persuading state and federal officials to remove barriers to market-based water transfers; and 3. Exploring the use of congestion pricing, parking charges, and transit deregulation in the region to minimize the need for transportation investments. SCAG is pursuing these applications via the transportation control measures (TCMs) discussed in the Growth Management and Regional Mobility chapters of the RCP. • Streamlining regulations and cutting red tape. The business community recognizes that permit processes usually address legitimate social and environmental goals. Nevertheless, along with market-based approaches, regulatory and permit simplification is needed to reduce the cost of meeting legitimate goals. Regulatory simplification includes reducing the number of agencies that have jurisdiction over the same action. The ideal, often expressed by frustrated entrepreneurs, is one-stop permitting. Even if the one-stop approach proves impracticable in certain instances, the second-best solution—uniformity of requirements among different jurisdictions—should be aggressively pursued at all levels of government. This will require collaborative decision making across geographical and jurisdictional lines. Directly-affected industry groups and the RESC will produce specific recommendations for avoiding duplication and overlapping of permit authority. Existing regulatory agencies affecting the region will be convened to move toward more cost-effective means of permitting. Even where there are few layers of bureaucracy involved in the process, streamlining of permitting translates as minimization of the time required to obtain the required permission. The above-mentioned groups should therefore include time minimization techniques in their recommendations to the regulators. Some examples of local/regional initiatives [expand]: Subregion input:Los Angeles City,San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,Southeast Los Angeles County,Westside Cities,West Riverside Council of Governments. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-45 71 1 1 Chapter Two • The Economy • Local government efforts; e.g., Ventura County Council on Economic Vitality, San Gabriel Valley Commerce and Cities Consortium initiative. • SCAG's own efforts in the RCP: E.I.R. tiering and TCMs. • RAC report recommendations • Subcommittee on Land Use and Conformity of RC Standing Committee on Implementation. (See also Chapter 7 (Implementation) of the RCP. • ]Providing infrastructure needed for growth" on a cost efficient basis — addressed in Mobility, Water, and Energy chapters of the RCP. Intensify existing efforts to educate leaders and the public regarding the economic rationale for increased public infrastructure investment. Progress in infrastructure funding, however, will require solutions to state and local government fiscal problems in the 1990s. [revise and expand] • ;state and local government fiscal reform Many strategies for economic prosperity in Southern California (e.g., education, training, infrastructure, quality of life) are related to state and local government fiscal prospects. In California, local government fiscal prospects are tied directly to state budget decisions. This fiscal interrelationship, together with the limited range of general revenue sources at the local level, makes it highly likely that fundamental fiscal reform at the state and local level will be required in order to meet the capital investment requirements of the region's economy. A specialized foundation dealing with fiscal reform is essential to support the region's basic industry clusters. This is an ideal province for public-private sector cooperation. A model which could be adapted to the needs of this region already exists among the Joint Venture: Silicon Valley foundations: the Silicon Valley Council on Tax and Fiscal Policy. A logical first step would be to establish a dialogue. • ]Designing a regional education and training stratee A highly skilled work force is an indispensable component of Southern California's competitiveness strategy. A regional education and training strategy for economic competitiveness needs to include the following: • Strategies to improve the skills of K-12 graduates. • Strategies to improve the educational and training opportunities of the "forgotten fifty"—those students who graduate from high school but do not complete a four-year college education. "Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo Subregion,Southeast Los Angeles County,South Bay Cities,West Riverside Council of Governments, 'Subregion input:Arroyo Verdugo,Los Angeles City,San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,West Riverside Council of Governments. Page 2-46 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Two • The Economy • Strategies to strengthen California's higher education system and improve its linkages with the business sector." • Strategies to train and match labor force skills with future key industry needs.' With so many educational reform efforts under way in the region, the role of the Consortium should be to lend expertise and provide support to existing groups in their reform efforts, rather than try to re-invent the wheel. • Promoting foreign trade and investment" The RESC supports the concept of free trade between nations. Regional policy with respect to foreign trade and investment should nevertheless seek to ensure that multilateral trade agreements (e.g., NAFTA) provide an adequate "phase in" period for both sides to adjust to the new conditions. Consistency of rules, regulations, and requirements for safety and the environment are examples. Moreover, a trade agreement is itself a form of economic transition or conversion; as such, adequate and timely assistance should be provided for both employers and workers whose income stream and/or benefits are significantly impacted. The Consortium, in concert with the interested parties, will assist in the formation of a specialized economic r foundation to support and promote foreign trade activity by businesses in the region, as well as a regional industry cluster involving linked aspects of international trade support services (e.g., goods movement and handling, telecommunications, repair services, etc.) This effort should include seeking the means and supporting regional efforts to maintain and upgrade infrastructure related to international trade. 5. STRATEGIES FOR INVESTMENT IN "COMMUNITIES-IN-NEED" Communities in need are identified and the dimensions of their problems mapped in the Technical Document accompanying Chapter 7: Human Resources and Services. In this chapter we are concerned with the economic rationale for focusing attention on communities in need as an essential ingredient of the overall regional economic strategy. Why should investment resources be allocated to such communities? There are three basic reasons: 1. The second goal established in Section I of this chapter—ensuring that economic gains are broadly shared—implies an effort of this sort. 2. Government needs to invest in its own self-interest—in order to protect and enlarge its fiscal base. "Subregion input:North Los Angeles County,San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities, n San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,West Riverside Council of Governments. "San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities,West Riverside Council of Governments. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-47 MEL f Chapter Two • The Economy 3. Businesses in the region will likewise be acting in their own best interests in undertaking investment in communities-in-need. Under a regional approach to the economy, improving conditions in such areas will have to be an integral part of the business development strategies. The region's image as a prosperous and dynamic place in which to do business will remain tarnished unless economic recovery can be seen to be benefitting all major segments of the population. Given that there is sufficient economic rationale for an investment strategy benefitting communities in need, two further questions need to be asked: "Where will the money come from?"; and "How can we ensure that the cost of providing these resources is minimized?" A number of public and public-private funding sources already exist in the region but may not be used to their fullest extent. Examples are Enterprise Zones, Empowerment Zones, Community Development Banks, Community Redevelopment Areas, and Community Development Corporations. We need to examine what these programs are really doing for the economy. The aim should not be temporary relief(however desperately that may be needed) but rather to enable such communities to begin moving toward economic self-sufficiency. The goal of self-sufficiency is explored in more detail in the Human Resources chapter of this Plan. Innovative, non-traditional sources of funds include the following: • R.L.A. (describe approach) — but needs to be generalized to region. • A regional Enterprise Trust Fund As recommended in the 2000 Regional Partnership's Housing Task Force Action Plan, an innovative financial funding mechanism--the Enterprise Trust Fund--could be used to accumulate resources for rebuilding our infrastructure and revitalizing our inner cities. The essence of the proposal is that an additional fee (a premium) would be placed on specially packaged mortgages that are sold to investors with the attraction that only the interest above the rate of inflation would be taxable. The pool of premium money—the Enterprise Trust Fund—would then be used to finance capital investments and services needed to improve the capacity of communities-in-need to solve their economic problems. As an example, if Southern California were able to allocate $3 billion from the Fund to projects in this area, an estimated 66,000 jobs would be created and nearly $600 million in federal tax receipts would be generated in the first year. The second year would generate an estimated $530 million in tax revenues, more than offsetting a $230 million loss to the Treasury from "inflation-proofing" the taxable yield on the securities in the preceding year. The program would start with so-called "Negotiated Community Investment Strategies." Local governments would decide—with input from community-based organizations and business, private investors and universities—on a strategy for achieving whatever is necessary for the community's economic revitalization. This might range from job-creating development to education and training needed to upgrade skills. It could include day care, improved security or other forms of investment needed to foster economic development. Page 2-48 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan r Chapter Two • The Economy Next in the process would be the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), which would approve the community strategy. HUD would then certify sales of pools of mortgages with the accompanying tax advantage. Private investors, government agencies and nonprofit organizations would execute the strategy. Trust funds, while administered by a bank or similar supervised entity, would be spent in accordance with the provisions of the specific strategy rather than the traditional requirements of banking regulations. The advantages of the proposed Enterprise Trust Fund include: • By relying on the preferential tax treatment of the securities, it would raise risk capital through the market, not via the taxation and appropriation process. Community investments financed in this manner would generate federal and state tax revenues, contributing to reduction of government budget deficits. • The community would develop its own strategies with the knowledge that the risk capital would be available; that banking regulations or traditional credit risk calculations would not prevent the financing. • The program would be implemented by the private sector. Local government and the community-in-need would determine the need and the private sector would work to fulfill it. There would be no need for project funds to be passed down from the federal to the state to the local government and then to the community. • Community partnership models in other regions. Community partnership efforts to attack the social problems associated with poverty in urban areas include the Atlanta Project in Georgia, an initiative of former President Jimmy Carter and The Carter Center, Inc., and the Austin Project in Texas, which is chaired by Walt W. Rostow. The investment plans put forth by each of these projects aim to reverse the decline of disadvantaged neighborhoods and ensure the economic and social protection of residents. Both projects promote the investment of scarce resources in a limited number of areas to meet specific and stated objectives. The strategies for implementation of the objectives are based on the principles of: • continuity of community action from pre-natal care to entrance into the work force; - • priority for preventive investment; and • partnerships and linkages among all elements of the community Current plans and budget projections include: Austin - The First Phase Plan calls for the creation of a Children's Fund — with support from 4 the federal, state, county and city governments, and foundations and corporations — totalling $12 million in the first year (1993). SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 2-49 Chapter Two 0 The Economy Atlanta - The five-year budget (1992-1997) includes $20 million in cash and $12.8 million in in-kind contributions, with additional funds raised for special needs (for example, $4.8 million has been pledged for documentation, training and evaluation of the project). Page 2-50 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chsp c� r� GROWTH MANAGEMENT • Introduction • Overview of Growth • Growth-Related Issues • Growth Management Policies • The Regional Outlook beyond 2010 A. INTRODUCTION This chapter addresses the complex issues related to growth and land consumption within the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP). The region is faced with the monumental task of dealing with the consequences of rapid growth in an era of dwindling physical, natural, and economic resources. Change and evolution will come at a price, and unless their consequences are foreseen and dealt with, the cost of growth could be too high for this region to absorb. Growth at any cost can result in a lower quality of life for all. Managed growth, on the other hand, could be an energizing force by providing an environment that attracts business and capital investments to the region, open opportunities for jobs, housing, and education, help attain mobility and air quality goals, and maintain quality of life. The purpose of the Growth Management chapter is to suggest guiding principles for growth and development that are supportive of the strategic goals of the RCP. These overall goals are to re-invigorate the region's economy, avoid social and economic inequities and the geographical dislocation of communities, and to maintain the region's quality of life. The Growth Management goals are presented in Table 3-1. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-1 Chapter Three • Growth Management Table 3-1 Growth Management Goals ItCP Goals Standard of Quality of Equity Living Life GME Goals Develop Urban Forma that: • Develop Urban Forms that: • Develop urban forms that: • Minimize public and private o preserve open space and natural o Avoid economic and development costs resources social polarization • Enable individuals to spend less o Are aesthetically plusing and income on housing costs preserve the character of • Accommodate a diversity communities of life styles • Enable firms to be more competitive • Attain mobility and clean air goals B. OVERVIEW OF GROWTH 1 . REGIONAL TRENDS During the next two decades, Southern California will continue to experience population growth and development but, along with growth, the region's features will undergo extensive transformations. In 2010 it is expected that there will be 20.5 million people living here and 9.7 million jobs available for workers. The ethnic makeup of this population will continue to evolve toward higher proportions of people of Hispanic and Asian descent. Whereas, in the past, migration played the dominant role in population increase, births will constitute the major portion of future growth. The younger and older segments of the population will grow rapidly, and workers will have to support a larger share of the total population. Table 3-2 Median Age of the U.S. and the SCAG Region, 1990 and 2010 1990 2010 U.S. 32.9 37.4 SCAG 30.6 32.3 Population growth and diversity are a source of economic and cultural vitality, as well as social challenges. Inter-group tensions, unequal access to services, unequal access to employment and educational opportunities, social and geographical segregation can also accompany rapid growth and diversity. Chapter 7 identifies desirable solutions to existing and potential social problems which come as a consequence of growth dynamics. Page 3-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Three • Growth Management POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING GROWTH SCAG REGION 1970-2010 25 POPULATION EMPLOYMENT 20.5 20 --HOUSING 0000�l V3 15 Z 0 J J 5 ���.......� 7.2 willowl�.. 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 YEAR FIGURE 3-1 r t.. Although the number of people per household will probably remain high, the same amount of dwelling units will have to be constructed as in the past decade, on the average, every year to adequately house the growing population. The ethnic and racial mix of households will reflect the population diversity and underlie shifting demands for housing. Chapter 6 attempts to provide answers to the fundamental question: How to bring the housing costs and decent shelter within the reach of more households as the region develops into the next century?. f The sweeping demographic changes that are already underway will also affect the region's labor force. A large proportion of the new residents and workers will be recent immigrants or children of recent immigrants. The rising skills requirements of new jobs will probably not match the capacities of workers across all ethnic groups. This could depress the average income and the wealth generated, thus lowering the quality of life in the region.' Long-term economic forecasts for the region, and strategies to attain real income growth and ensure that economic gains are broadly shared are fully analyzed in Chapter 2. Strategies for improving the quality of the region's work force are detailed in Chapter 7. 'Several years ago SCAG undertook an analysis of social disparities(with a Ford Foundation grant distributed by the National Association of Regional Councils). The study revealed that polarization of jobs by skill and wage is intensifying, and that traditional blue collar jobs are being replaced by mid-level jobs requiring different verbal,computational and communication skills. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-3 1 1 Chapter Three • Growth Managerpent ANNUAL AVERAGE COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH aoo HISTORICAL 358 357 PROJECTION 321 300 265 179 128 279 286 291 298 90 47 71 85 88 0 z 200 186 137 O ~ 121 88 100 ®NAT.INC ❑NET.MIG FIGURE 3-2 DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY ETHNICITY SCAG REGION 1990 & 2010 1990 2010 4q 7% NH WHITE 36.1% \ * \ BLACK 8.1% � ASIAN &OTHERS 11.5% 8.0% 9.2% 33.1% HISPANIC 44.3% FIGURE 3-3 Page 3-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Three • Growth Management DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR SCAG REGION 1990 & 2010 1990 2010 4.3% 4.4% 22.1 21.4% 17.5% 12.9% .3% 6.2% .9% 1.0% 7% 6.2 7.7% / 7.4% 12.3% 0 11.2% 25.39'0 31.3 k FIGURE 3-4 IM Agriculture &Mining ® Construction ® Manufacturing 0 Transportation ® Trade ® Rnance ® Services ® Government Q Self-employed 2. SUBREGIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF GROWTH The regional forecasts were disaggregated to counties, subregions, cities, and smaller geographies through a bottom-up, inter-active process in which subregional organizations played a crucial role by providing information and technical input. The DRAM/EMPAL model, was used to produce a small-area forecast that allocates growth to different areas based on their relative attractiveness. This distribution contained no adjustments for local zoning or growth constraints. Additionally, staff met with the Planning Director or their representative for each of the cities to arrive at a city-level-forecast that represents not only the best estimate of future growth, but also one which reflects local conditions. The resulting distributions of population, housing, and employment to subregions and cities constitute a forecasts that public entities are currently anticipating without further policy intervention. This base case forecast was used for modeling of travel characteristics and emissions of air pollutants. Two alternative distributions were developed for transportation modeling and the Environmental Impact Report (EIR) analysis. One alterative reflects the job/housing balance distributions of the 1989 Growth SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-5 Chapter Three • Growth Management Management Plan (GMP), with updated regional totals. The second alternative concentrates growth around rail and transit stations. Figures 3-5 and 3-6 show the rate of growth in population, housing and employment for each subregion, between 1990 and 2000, and between 2000 and 2010. They indicate that the fastest growth rates will take place in the outlying areas of the region, namely North Los Angeles County and the Inland Empire. Future development is expected to occur at fairly low-densities as depicted in Figures 3-7 and 3-8. Preliminary modeling results based on the base case socioeconomic distributions, indicate that, in some outlying areas of the region, forecast growth could severely impact the transportation infrastructure, leading to excessive congestion. The forecast distributions will be finalized after discussion of modeling results, analysis of EIR alternatives, and resolution of growth related issues by technical and policy committees. The forecast adopted by the Regional Council will underlie the development of the different components of the R('-P. Page 3-6 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan a � 5Q� Q QQ QQ QQ QQ Q QQ QQ QQ QQ Q QQ ZS 25 r5 a r5 25 25 �S r5 r5 � � �S 25 �S • tV — P O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O so 0 �Qp �QV v N r v e+i erf �D P r a S e•1 �O N wl — en O r N 00 e+1 N fV — — r N O N v1 c a $ $ Z5 Z5 25 �S ZS 25 25 25 25 25 �S Z5 25 25 r - pp p e n �O N v P 00 �O P1 N 11 el Q) N Go co S P ? 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N • w o N OD 3 p c� Z w Q cc _ w LO q) a� (o o a 6 q) O V 0 Z Ln N W 1� a O gLL _ cr)c.) LO H m to i Z O N N m _ m N " C J r O N r r r c r O LM l0 O Of cc 0 O o tv LL _ O 5 � � � E � g � v r o N o m C� 0) >. co U tv > U c E > E QL W Z > c m co V o0 3 U m rn O 0 F5 i tv c cc m V c � c Z m m n o, o c c = v 3 > o cc > o p z • V y O T O O CV o O � O o m N ° o a H o oo E w ® ® ® o co � c 0 a_ o a W rz t z u, z 4 Q ¢ o C3 •- a � n z co c v° Z. W ,o U) a: " Z) O 5 � c o Z �` _m • N CD O m � ^ O V �— N m V � N r L y kv I� ol `° rz� 1� cn v v M E U w o' ¢ cLi v o v c z z° g > O co N v 3 0 E E v) 11J O o 0 v m y v c m cc �= co > • (.) O q) 0 > O m • o O z •• CV) Cb a) V � � A LL C A cz 3 � � A � � E L ^ M LL. cl 1C' � •N / j V O O O C >. v / e P •� N Y E G P j Y ° O i j Q L C P Z J 3 2 O ® ■ ■ p CD 0 V OAF d roo OAF v 1.k OAF led vi 0 An Chapter Three • Growth Management C. GROWTH-RELATED ISSUES As this region continues to expand a number of issues are likely to emerge and/or intensify. Growth and growth distributions, as well as changing demographic and economic characteristics, will impact all aspects of life in the region. This chapter focusses on the implications of growth distributions on urban form, mobility, air quality, and open space. It also addresses the related issues of economic development, socioeconomic equity, fiscalization, and policy implementation. 1 . URBAN FORM, MOBILITY, AND AIR QUALITY Land-use and density patterns influence to a large extent the way people choose to travel, the distances they must cover, and the time they spend to reach their destination. This, in turn, determines the amount of congestion on the roadways, the amount of fuel consumed, and consequent air pollution. The 1991 federal Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) stresses the integration of land- use policies and transportation programs. Land-use measures and growth management strategies to reduce congestion, vehicle trips, and Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), are important requirements to meet the California air quality standards. a. Approaches to Urban Form Analysis 1. Large-Scale/Regional Urban Form The large-scale urban form approach implies the implementation of a land use policy at the regional level. The 1989 GMP job/housing balance policy is an example. The job/housing balance policy proposed in the 1989 GMP was included in the 1989 Regional Mobility Plan (RMP) as a strategy to regain 1984 levels of mobility. It was also included as a Transportation Control Measure (TCM) in the Air Quality Plan (AQMP Measure 17). The aim of this land-use strategy was to relieve the pressures of population and job-growth distributions on the transportation system by achieving more balanced future developments. Job/housing balance accounted for 8 percent reduction in congestion and 33 percent of emission reductions resulting from TCM in the AQMP. t The position that job/housing balance would occur, over time, without regional policy intervention, is partially supported by recent data. The base case 2010 distributions imply job/housing balance ratios that are a marked improvement over the job/housing ratios in the 1989 GMP. Analytical subregions which become more balanced over time, or do not deteriorate, will comprise 60 percent of the total regional housing and employment. On the other hand, some subregions will experience greater imbalance and will comprise 40 percent of the total regional housing and employment. Transportation and emission modeling results show that achieving job/housing balance ratios equivalent to the 1989 GMP in subregions moving to greater imbalance helps achieve a 2.65 percent reduction in VMT traveled during morning rush hours. Compared to the base-case forecast, this scenario also leads to a 19.5 percent reduction in hours of delay, a 9.21 percent increase in speed, and a reduction of Reactive Organic Gases (ROG) of more than 1 ton per day. The implications of this model run will be evaluated in the EIR. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-13 Chapter Three • Growth Management The question facing decision-makers is whether such gains warrant re-examining the issue of job/housing balance at the regional scale. The mobility and air quality benefits of large scale job/housing balance are an important consideration in negotiations of the final distributions of growth. Nevertheless, it should be recognized that phasing and timing of development are as important as achieving the proper job/housing balance to yield the desired environmental benefits.' 2. Medium-Scale/Transit-Oriented Urban Form This approach links anticipated transportation investments to the types of land uses most likely to promote patronage of the transit system. SCAG commissioned a team of consultants, lead by the Urban Innovation Group, to investigate different theoretical urban form alternatives relative to regional mobility and air quality objectives. The team identified public investments in transportation, and proposed three cases of transit oriented urban development. The first case examines the effects on transit ridership of directing and concentrating new development near rail stations. The second case also increases new development in existing activity centers serviced by intra- center shuttles with express bus routes to other centers. The third case implies trend-line distributions of population and employment. To enhance the benefits of concentrated development, a multi-occupant vehicle para-transit system to service local travel, and connect to bus and rail stations for longer distance travel, is assumed. Qualitative analytical results show that, for each of the three cases, modal split for transit in the home-to- work travel market increases compared to trend-line projections. However, transit-oriented development enhanced by a multi-tiered, ubiquitous, transit system (third case) is the only scenario that produces the modal split goal of 19 percent, by 2010, established by the 1989 RMP. Such a system would entail no major change to existing regional urban form but would rely on investing in a demand responsive transit system (Smart Shuttle Transit) capable of servicing a large market. Dispatching of vehicles would be based on advanced telecommunications and computer tracking. This scenario, based on fine tuning multiple use neighborhood development and on advanced technologies, can create job opportunities, and sustained economic development.' The Urban Form transportation modeling run was designed to measure the sensitivity of land-use changes within close proximity to existing and planned rail stations. Forty-five percent of employment growth between 1990 and 2010, and 35 percent of household growth, were directed in a one-half-mile radius around the rail stations. Results showed that concentration of development slightly improves the share of total trips captured by transit regionwide (transit ridership increases by 0.5 percent). Nonetheless, in zones around rail stations, transit ridership increases by 7.7 percent in 2010. Results of this model run should be interpreted in light of the fact the regional model was not initially designed to test the relationship between land use and transit patronage, and does not reflect behavioral changes that come with more compact development, such as 'Reflects subregional input from South Bay, SANBAG, San Gabriel Valley Cities Association, Orange County and VCOG subregions. 'The UIG Urban Form study was revised to reflect subregional comments. See in particular comments from SANBAG and Los Angeles City. Full text of the study presented in appendix. Page 3-14 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Three • Growth Management vehicle ownership reductions and reduced access time to transit stations' 3. Small-Scale/Localized Urban Form The third approach to urban form is based on local actions to affect site specific patterns of development. Such actions include allowing the combination of usually separated land uses within a single development; increasing development density along transit corridors and/or stations; clustering development to preserve open space; achieving better jobs/housing balance at the micro scale, and a better match between the types of jobs and the price of housing. Such actions can be carried out through local jurisdictions' regulatory powers. Design standards improvement actions are another category that could affect Urban Form at the local level. These include the provision of physical features that encourage transit use, cut the need for cold starts, and encourage pedestrian and bicycle travel. Amenities such as bus shelters and bus pullouts to improve transit, physical improvements that support pedestrian traffic, the construction of bike lanes and provision of secure bike racks, and parking arrangements that facilitate ride sharing can help achieve vehicle trips reduction. Changes to existing zoning, general plan amendments, and specific plans that encourage concentrated, mixed use, transit and pedestrian oriented development, are tools which can be used by local jurisdictions to foster land-use policies that, along with adequate Transportation Demand Management (TDM) programs and non- motorized infrastructure, can reduce environmental and economic costs of motorized trips. The effect of such measures on vehicle trips and VMT are difficult to model. According to a study conducted by the Air Resource Board, mixed-use development and increased densities can reduce 4 to 11% of a region's vehicle trips and 20-to-50 percent of site-specific trips. Subre iog�nal Input The general consensus among subregions is that a localized approach to urban form and land use development would be the most beneficial in meeting mobility and air quality goals, and sustained economic development. Subregional plans and comments submitted indicated that existing or proposed policies and implementation strategies of local jurisdictions support the types of actions mentioned above.` This approach does not necessitate redirecting future development regionwide, or massive concentration of new development along transit stations and transit corridors. Linkages and Relationships to Other RCP Components Land-use actions are an essential component of the RME to improve regional mobility, and of the AQME to achieve clean air standards. Local land-use actions that target both work and non-work trips and are aimed at maximizing access to the transportation system, and options to choose among travel modes, are also beneficial for air quality since they help reduce dependence on the auto. The Growth Management position and the land-use component of the Mobility and Air Quality strategies are 3'The different model runs assumptions and results are detailed in the GME. 4Reflects subregional input from IVAG, Los Angeles City, North Los Angeles, West Side Summit, South Bay, SELAC, Son Gabriel Valley, SANBAG,WRCOG, Arroyo Verdugo subregions and comments on the Air Quality Element by Orange County. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-15 Chapter Three • Growth Management based on the premise that local jurisdictions have the primary authority over land use decisions. The development of public-private partnerships is essential to bring about the desirable land use changes which will help achieve the goals of better mobility and air quality. This is consistent with the RCP strategy which advocates a self-regulating approach instead of "command and control", and which recognizes the mutual dependence of the public and private sectors in bringing about desired changes. b. Open Space and Conservation The preservation of open space and conservation of natural resources are vital to the health and safety of individuals. They also contribute to the maintenance of the quality of life, to enrichment of urban form, and to the regional economic balance. T e need to preserve and conserve forests, agricultural preserves, and flood plains, to protect endangered species, particular habitats and wetlands, to accommodate hazard zones, and to provide recreational areas, is discussed in Chapter 9. The control of development in areas susceptible to natural hazards helps prevent catastrophic losses of human lives, property and resources. All too often, natural disasters strike in areas not meant for safe human habitat. Restriction of development or the imposition of strict design criteria in designated areas, can curtail the psychological and fiscal burdens of fighting disasters and coping with their aftermath. In the same vein, zoning practices which safeguard historical, cultural, and archeological sites contribute to the preservation of open space and the enrichment of human existence. However, open space policies, if not properly designed, could lead to land- and development-cost increases, and potentially conflict with efficient attainment of housing and economic development goals. The trade-offs between conservation of open space and the other growth management goals must be carefully weighed. Subreeional Input The; paradox between the need to accommodate growth and the necessity of preserving open space can be eliminated with proactive planning. The Urban Development Guidelines, Support of Agriculture, Permanent Preservation Programs, Development Requirements and Greenbelt Program approved by the Ventura County Association of Governments (VCOG) subregion are examples of local policies and strategies to preserve open space, protect community identity and mitigate impacts of growth.' Disincentives to growth in areas designated for preservation is another policy to promote safety and conserve open space6. Linkages and Relationships with Other RCP Components The: Open Space chapter stresses the importance of balancing the need for additional development and the need to protect the region's natural ecosystems and open space resources. Land-use decisions to accommodate growth should be weighed for their potential impacts on natural resources. Multiple-habitat planning, better cooperation between land owners, local jurisdictions, agencies responsible for land management, and better cooperation among subregions can minimize the negative effects on the environment. This would have the dual effect of reducing the costs of ecosystem management as well as development costs. `Goals and policies of the San Gabriel Valley Subregional Plan and proposed policies of Los Angeles City and the IVAG subregions support this position. 'Proposed by Los Angeles City Subregion. Page 3-16 0 December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Am Chapter Three • Growth Management 2. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND SOCIAL DISPARITY Forces of the global economy, technologic changes, immigration, neighborhood segregation, and growth itself, among other factors, are resulting in disparities in education, job, and housing opportunity. The same forces contribute to geographic polarization by income. Social polarization and disparity tend to reinforce each other. Providing appropriate jobs close to major population concentration and affordable housing close to major employment opportunities can help address the job and housing opportunity disparities. As jobs requiring improved verbal, computational, and communication skills replace traditional blue-collar jobs, education and training, or retraining, will be essential in accomplishing this transition in the labor force. The training challenge is magnified by the trend towards smaller companies which are often not able to arrange for, or provide, the training themselves. Policies in Chapter 2 address these challenges. Chapter 6 deals with the issue of providing diverse types of housing for people of differing ages, for differing incomes and for different family size or make-up. If housing production can not meet the demands indicated in the forecast, then overcrowding in existing older communities is likely to occur. High, or escalating, housing costs could be detrimental to the maintenance of the region's competitive edge. This could result in growth distributions different from the forecast. Preservation, rehabilitation and code enforcement are related housing issues. Achieving "sustainable communities" implies that economic and housing opportunities are available in all parts of the region. Revitalization of lower-income areas—the areas "left behind"—is a critical and growing challenge for the region. These concerns are addressed in Chapter 7. Subregional Input Tools to contain housing and infrastructure costs to maintain economic competitiveness are suggested by the Los Angeles City subregion. They include locating new housing development where infrastructure capacity already exists, particularly through mixed-use development at transit locations; revitalizing dilapidated areas; capitalizing on community assets such as historic resources, strong community organization and multi-cultural cooperation; promoting infill development appropriate to each neighborhood; rehabilitating existing structures; promoting home ownership opportunities; making adaptive reuses of closed plants, surplus school sites and vacant buildings'; establishing priorities for business assistance and tax free financing in f_ areas where job development is needed'; providing opportunities for households of all income levels'; streamlining the permitting process10 Several subregions have suggested ways to meet the challenge of achieving "sustainable communities". Their 'Consistent with goals and policies of the San Gabriel Valley subregional plan, and SELAC comments. IL 'WRCOG recommendation. °Input from Arroyo Verdugo. 10 VAG recommendations include the coordination of permitting process. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-17 Chapter Three • Growth Management policies call for the provision of the proper mix of economic and housing opportunities, and assuring that health, quality education, recreation, welfare, protection, commercial, religious, and non-profit services are available to all communities, including lower income areas." Linkages and Relationships with Other Plan Components To remain economically, competitive, the region must maintain a well trained work force, an adequate infrastructure to move people, goods and information quickly and at competitive cost, a competitive quality of life, and a competitive business climate. 0 The development of locally desirable urban forms can assist in the achievement of economic competitiveness and the attainment of the RCP goals. They are essential for implementation of human resources development policies. There is also an intricate link between proper land use planning and the provision of adequate and affordable housing. Local land-use actions, such as proper zoning, density bonuses, mixed-use, balanced growth and the proper mix of housing opportunities by building type and income level, phasing of growth and infrastructure, streamlining of the permitting process (for land use, construction and operations), can help bring down the cost of housing and development, and help resolve the issues raised in the Housing chapter. This would also help improve the region's quality of life, retain trained and skilled workers in the region, and therefore, help the region to regain it's economic competitive edge. Making employment, entertainment and tourist centers more accessible, through the coordination of land use and transportation facilities, reinforce economic development policies for the region. Whereas it is expected that each jurisdiction and/or subregion will formulate its own approach to land use issues, the decisions of one jurisdiction also affects surrounding ones. Successful implementation of desirable land-use changes will require decision-making through consensus building and dispute resolution as proposed in the RCP's Strategy chapter. Consensus building and resolution of disputes about land-use is also advantageous from an economic development perspective. Developers go where they are welcome. Proper zoning and land-use designations within and across jurisdictions can facilitate the formation of economic clusters, the physical movement of goods, and the generation of jobs in the types of industries which will stimulate the economy and help achieve economic goals for the region. The appropriate zoning designations can facilitate the provision of recreational, educational, and training facilities and ensure their accessibility to all residents. These actions would also enable communities in need to become sustainable, as advocated in the Human Resources and Services chapter. 3.. FISCAL ISSUES AND IMPLEMENTATION In an era of financial difficulties and fiscal constraints, competition among jurisdictions to attract revenue- "This strategy to achieve sustainable communities is advocated in subregional comments and plans of IVAG, Arroyo Verdugo, WRCOG, Los Angeles City, Son Gabriel Valley Cities Association, and SELAC. Page 3-18 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan MOM Chapter Three • Growth Management generating development becomes more intense. This practice tends to exacerbate disparities between communities. Some communities, which are at a competitive disadvantage and financially strapped, find it increasingly difficult to provide their residents with the needed infrastructure and services. The same communities are often impacted, and shouldering more than their fair share of regional growth. The debate toward the resolution of the various issues related to growth distribution and urban form must consider the issue of equitable distribution of development cost among communities, and between the private and public sector. Each community should have an opportunity to participate in economic development, and to generate a sound fiscal base to provide for the needs of its residents. The degree to which this is realized will determine the economic strength and vitality of the region, the establishment of sustainable communities, and the maintenance of the regional quality of life. The Finance chapter discusses ways to make this possible. The implications of these fiscal issues, an implementation strategy to overcome disparities, and the design of an appropriate monitoring program, need to be identified and debated by subregions. The discussion of issues, and final resolutions, rests with local governments. The method for distributing costs for installation of infrastructure or services in a fiscally responsible manner are critical, and require full involvement of local governments and subregions. Subregional Input Suggestions to deal with this issue were provided through the subregional input process. They include the following: encourage efficient patterns of development that reduce public-service delivery costs"; seek assistance from state and regional agencies for planning and implementation of mixed-use development; change legislation to permit transfer of funds from redevelopment set asides or other sources for the provision of housing on a city-to-city basis"; seek fair-share state and/or federal financing for the cost of growth'`; address competition strategies for intra-subregional planning's; link distribution of additional gas tax money to evidence of good faith effort to provide more concentrated density around transit corridors16; support joint contracting, revenue sharing and joint provision of services by local jurisdictions." Charging higher infrastructure costs for developments that require new facilities", and establishing developer fees to provide growth related services and infrastructure appropriate to the level and type of proposed development19, are suggested methods to overcome fiscal constraints. However, the last two measures can potentially conflict "VCOG input to RCP. "Included in SELAC subregional plan recommendations, CVAG comments and WRCOG Growth Management goals and principles. "Suggested by.WRCOG. 1"Input from Arroyo Verdugo Subregion. 16Input from West Side Summit. ' Included in WRCOG goals and policies. 1BInput from South Bay Cities Association Subregions] Strategy. 1 9Included in WRCOG Growth Management goals and objectives. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-19 Chapter Three • Growth Management with the goal of reducing development costs. Linkages and Relationships with Other RCP Components The same land-use actions that help attract and sustain economic development are useful to revitalize disadvantaged communities and provide solutions to issues raised in the Housing, and Human Resources and Services chapters. Suggestions provided by subregions to overcome the problems of fiscalization of land use also help achieve the goal of community self-sufficiency examined in the Human Resources and Services chapter. As discussed in Chapter 2, funding sources such Enterprise Zones, Employment Zones, Community Development Banks, Community Redevelopment Areas, and Community Development Corporations can be tapped to defray development costs incurred by local jurisdictions for the provision of services, equally to all residents. Furthermore, fiscal reform is essential to support the region's infrastructure needs and attract the region's basic industry clusters. The Finance chapter proposes a model for public-private cooperation to deal with fiscal reform at the state and local level. The Housing chapter explores alternative funding sources for the production and subsidy of housing. The use of redevelopment set aside for housing, waiving development requirements and fees for provision of low- income housing, land banking and the development of partnerships with non-profit organizations are tools that can be used by local jurisdictions to overcome fiscal problems, increase the production of housing, and develop sustainable communities. D. GROWTH MANAGEMENT POLICIES The following policies are intended to guide growth in the region and mitigate its negative impacts. They are consistent with subregional input20, and reflect possible answers to the growth related issues discussed above. 1 . POLICIES RELATED TO GROWTH FORECASTS: • The population, housing, and jobs forecasts, which are adopted by SCAG's Regional Council and that reflect local plans and policies, shall be used in all phases of implementation and review. • In areas with large seasonal population fluctuations, such as resort areas, forecast permanent populations. However, appropriate infrastructure systems should be sized to serve high-season population total. • The timing, financing, and location of public facilities, utility systems, and transportation systems shall be used to implement the region's growth policies and to achieve the desired regional form. 'OSee in particular input of WRCOG, IVAG, San Gabriel Valley, SELAC, Arroyo Verdugo, West Side Summit and VCOG subregions. Page 3-20 • December 1993 SCAG 0 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Three • Growth Management 2. POLICIES RELATED TO THE RCP GOAL TO IMPROVE THE REGIONAL STANDARD OF LIVING The Growth Management goals to develop urban forms that enable individuals to spend less income on housing cost, that minimize public- and private-development costs, and that enable firms to be more competitive, strengthen the regional strategic goal to stimulate the regional economy. The following policies would guide achievement of such goals. • SCAG shall encourage local jurisdictions' efforts to achieve a balance between the types of jobs they seek to attract and housing prices. • SCAG shall encourage patterns of urban development and land use which reduce costs on infrastructure construction and make better use of existing facilities. • SCAG shall support subregional policies that recognize agriculture as an industry, support the economic viability of agricultural activities, preserve agricultural land and provide compensation for property owners holding lands in greenbelt areas.2' • SCAG shall encourage subregions to define an economic strategy to maintain the economic vitality of the subregion, including the development and use of marketing programs, and other economic incentives, which support attainment of subregional goals and policies.' • SCAG shall support local jurisdictions efforts to minimize cost of infrastructure and public service delivery, and efforts to seek new sources of funding for development and the provision of services. • SCAG shall support local jurisdictions actions to minimize red tape and expedite the permitting process to maintain economic vitality and competitiveness. 3. POLICIES RELATED TO THE RCP GOAL TO MAINTAIN THE REGIONAL QUALITY OF LIFE. The Growth Management goals to attain mobility and clean air goals and to develop urban forms that enhance quality of life, that accommodate a diversity of life styles, that preserve open space and natural resources, and that are aesthetically pleasing and preserve the character of communities, enhance the regional strategic goal of maintaining the regional quality of life. The following policies would provide direction to reach such goals. • SCAG shall support provisions and incentives created by local jurisdictions to attract housing growth in job rich subregions and job growth in housing rich subregions?' IL 'Input from VCOG and IVAG. nlnput by WRCOG. aRwAsed per WRCOG suggestion. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-21 . f f 1 Chapter Three • Growth Management • SCAG shall encourage existing or proposed local jurisdictions programs aimed at designing land uses which encourage the use of transit and thus reduce the need for roadway expansion, reduce the number of auto trips and vehicle miles traveled, and create opportunities for residents to walk and bike. • SCAG shall encourage local jurisdictions plans that maximize the use of existing urbanized areas accessible to transit through infill and redevelopment. • SCAG shall support local plans to increase density of future development located at strategic points along the regional commuter rail, transit systems and activity centers. • SCAG shall support local jurisdictions strategies to establish mixed-use clusters and other transit oriented developments around transit stations and along transit corridors. • SCAG shall encourage developments in and around activity centers', transportation node corridors, under-utilized infrastructure systems and areas needing recycling and redevelopment. • SCAG shall support and encourage settlement patterns which contain a range of urban densities. • SCAG shall encourage planned development in locations least likely to cause adverse environmental impact. • National Forests shall remain permanently preserved and used as open space. SCAG shall support policies and actions that preserve open space areas identified in local', state, and federal plans. • Vital resources as wetlands, groundwater recharge areas, woodlands, production lands, and land containing unique and endangered plants and animals should be protected. • SCAG shall encourage the implementation of measures aimed at the preservation and protection of recorded and unrecorded cultural resources and archaeological sites. • SCAG shall discourage development, or encourage the use of special design requirements, in areas with steep slopes, high fire, flood, and seismic hazards. • SCAG shall encourage mitigation measures that reduce noise in certain locations, measures aimed at preservation of biological and ecological resources, measures that would reduce exposure to seismic hazards, minimize earthquake damage and to develop emergency response and recovery plans. 4„ POLICIES RELATED TO THE RCP GOAL TO PROVIDE SOCIAL, POLITICAL, AND CULTURAL EQUITY. The Growth Management goal to develop urban forms that avoid economic and social polarization promotes the regional strategic goal of minimizing social and geographical disparities and of reaching equity among all NActivity centers are defined in the RME. 'See IVAG, VCOG, Los Angeles City and San Gabriel Cities Association for specific open space policies. Paige 3-22 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan ..w-, Chapter Three • Growth Management segments of society. The following policies would guide the accomplishment of this goal: • SCAG shall encourage efforts of local jurisdictions in the implementation of programs that increase the supply and quality of housing and provide affordable housing as evaluated in the Regional Housing Needs Assessment. • SCAG shall encourage the efforts of local jurisdictions, employers and service agencies to provide adequate training and retraining of workers, and prepare the labor force to meet the future challenges of the regional economy. • SCAG shall encourage employment development in job-poor localities through support of labor force retraining programs and other economic development measures. • SCAG shall support local jurisdictions and other service providers in their efforts to develop sustainable communities and provide, equally to all members of society, accessible and effective services such as: public education, housing, health care, child care, social services, recreational facilities, law enforcement, and fire protection. E. THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK BEYOND 2010 Probing some of the future possibilities provides the opportunity to more clearly see the challenges ahead. 1 . CHANGE DYNAMICS a. Regional Demographics and Economy: r Stretching the forecast horizon, and assuming that the same dynamics influencing regional growth till 2010 will operate for another ten years, population is expected to reach 22.1 million in 2015 and 23.7 million in 2020. The rate of population growth will continue to decline, and births will constitute an ever increasing proportion of the growth. The proportion of 65 years old and over will also increase, but the population will remain younger than the national average. The number of housing units needed to properly house the increasing population will grow to 7.8 million in 2015 and 8.5 million in 2020. The number of jobs will reach 10.4 million in 2015 and 10.9 million in 2020. The dynamics of demographic change are very fluid and these shifts can occur in relatively brief time periods. The growth forecasts for 2010 show non-Hispanic White (NHW), and Hispanic populations at 36 percent and 44 percent, respectively, of total regional population. By 2020 it is highly probable that the Hispanic population will reach 47 percent and that the Asian population will reach 12 percent. If the Black population continues to stay at 8 percent, NHW could be 33 percent of the total population. It may be, of course, that ethnic divisions will have become more blurred and lose significance as time passes. On the jobs side the following dynamics are possible; continued increase in smaller companies, quite footloose as to location; decreasing share of manufacturing jobs as a percent of total jobs, and possibly in real numbers; 1°The regional and subregional forecasts are preliminary.They have not been thoroughly reviewed through the subregional input process and are subject to revisions.In the review process they will be subjected the same bottom-up interactive procedure followed for development of the 2000 and 2010 forecasts. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-23 r. Ir. Chapter Three • Growth Management POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND HOUSING GROWTH SCAG REGION 2015 AND 2020 25 -POPULATION EMPLOYMENT 23'7 20 22.1 --HOUSING 15 z 0 10.9 10 10.4 7T 8.5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 YEAR FIGURE 3-9 I jobs requiring different skills from those needed in the past; emergence of new transportation systems that may result in new business and industry centers. Page 3-24 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Mass Chapter Three • Growth Management Preliminary Draft Subregional and County distributions of population and employment in 2015 are shown in Tables 3-5 and 3-6. Table 3-5 Preliminary Draft Subregional Forecasts, 2015 SUBREGION POPULATION HOUSING EMPLOYMENT NORTH LA 1,167,000 375,000 292,000 LA CITY 4,752,000 1,711,000 2,214,000 ARROYO VERDUGO 673,000 264,000 466,000 SAN GABRIEL VALLEY 1,804,000 558,000 811,000 WEST SIDE SUMMIT 272,000 136,000 266,000 SOUTH BAY CITIES 946,000 350,000 621,000 SELAC:S.E. LA 2,233,000 695,000 1,142,000 ORANGE COUNTY 3,182,000 1,130,000 2,006,000 WRCOG:W.RIV. 2,297,000 824,000 660,000 COACHELLA 557,000 242,000 177,000 RIV. REMAINDER 71,000 29,000 13,000 VCOG• 960,000 366,000 463,000 VCOG:SANTA CLARITA 209,000 76,000 65,000 SAN BERNARDINO 2,660,000 959,000 953,000 IMPERIAL 254,000 73,000 77,000 SCAG TOTAL 22,000,000 7,787,000 10,226,000 •VCOG includes Ventura County and three cities in LA County. SCAG Growth Management Element, 1993 Source:SCAG Draft Base Forecast, 1993 c SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-25 Chapter Three • Growth Management Table 3-6 Preliminary Draft County Forecasts, 2015 CCOUNTY POPULATION HOUSING EMPLOYMENT LOS ANGELES 12,096,000 3,958,000 5,908,000 ORANGE 3,182,000 1,130,000 2,006,000 RIVERSIDE 2,925,000 1,095,000 850,000 SAN BERNARDINO 2,660,000 959,000 953,000 VENTURA 921,000 352,000 431,000 IMPERIAL 254,000 73.000 77,E CSCAG TOTAL 22,000,000 7,787,000 10,226,000 SCAG Draft Growth Management Element, 1 Soun:e:SCAG Draft Base Forecast, 1993 b. Advanced Technology From a growth management and urbanization perspective a few vital technologic possibilities include the following: • Alternative Fuels: Particularly renewable energy sources including especially those which are non- polluting and easily available. This would expand available large scale urbanization alternatives, create major new economic development opportunities, and significantly change international trade. • Communication Systems: The communication revolution has already infiltrated the worlds of work, entertainment, education, and shopping. The future promises an expansion of these emerging trends. Advanced communications systems and equipment will likely be the vehicles of the future, reducing reliance on the auto. • Transportation Systems: Supersonic jets, which would cut flight time for long-distance flights by one- half, maglev rail, or vertical take-off and landing aircraft, which would make sites 100-to-200 miles away accessible to major present centers; new-style automobiles, such as "lean-machines," which would operate in narrower lanes, and would expand the capacity of existing roads; computerized electric cars, which would permit operations with minimal space between vehicles, would increase the capacity of roadways, and would mitigate highway congestion; slower-speed people-movers, from variations of electric carts and mopeds to moving sidewalks, which would be especially useful as distributors and collectors in conjunction with transit systems; jitneys that competitively move people in a new form of transit would reduce reliance on the privately owned auto. c. Regional Infrastructures Changing life-styles and values and political institutional organization will impact infrastructure needs. Much of the existing infrastructure is currently obsolete due to deferred maintenance or due simply to aging and the rapid pace of recent changes. Between now and 2010 a proportion of the housing built in the late 1940s, the Page 3-26 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Three • Growth Management 1950s, or 1960s will need replacing or major renovation. The currently obsolete infrastructure will need replacement and repair. Office buildings of the 1980s could become obsolete beyond 2010, as are those built 40 years ago. Shopping centers, already threatened by the new merchandising techniques of discount stores, outlet centers and electronic purchasing, will have to be revamped. Parking structures, including the huge basement caverns, could become antiquated. Schools, hospitals, churches, amusement parks, sports stadia will have to be restructured to fit new life styles and environments or become archaic, as have the old amusement parks along the beach. The communication revolution will no doubt impact the various transformations. 2. ALTERNATIVE POSSIBLE GROWTH PATTERNS Whether growth will continue beyond 2010 as forecast between now and 2010, or significantly slow, stop, (or even reverse itself) are alternative assumptions. Another assumption both in the no-growth and the continued-growth paths is whether to expect widely dispersed growth and urbanization of additional desert and/or agricultural lands, or whether to count on very compacted growth with, at the extreme, all growth handled by densification and infill. The next assumption is similar to the densification-compaction issue but deals with compaction at a different scale: the issue of "spread" vs. "centered" growth. Whether urbanizing new undeveloped lands or re- urbanizing by infill or densification, will the focus be on creating higher density mixed use centers and corridors, or on the more evenly spread out lower density arrangements with clearly separated land uses?. 3. GROWTH MANAGEMENT PRIORITIES Given the above discussion of dynamics and possible alternatives, what growth management policies seem most critical in relation to the "beyond 2010" time frame? a. Small ScalefLocalized Planning Local actions such as mixed-land-use, localized job/housing balance, increasing development density along transit corridors and/or stations and preserving open space, and design standards which affect site-specific patterns of development, will continue to be growth management priorities past 2010. This is important since it is generally acknowledged that localized changes in urban form are incremental, and that their cumulative impact on mobility and air quality are long-range, not likely to be felt until after 2010. Examples of successful implementation of land use policies are numerousZ/. Along with results of the ARB study showing a potential reduction of up to 11 percent of regional vehicle trips, they all point to the beneficial long-term effects of coordinated land use and transportation policies. The primary gains of 27Calthorpe Associates,"Transit Oriented Development Design Guidelines',1992 for the City of San Diego. Holtzclaw/NRDC, 'Explaining Urban Density and Transit Impacts on Auto Use', 1990. Local Government Commission,'Land Use Strategies for Liveable Places', 1992. Transit/Residential Access Center, "Incentives for Trip Reduction Through Location of Housing Near Rail Transit Stations", 1991. Air Resources Board, "CCAA Guidance for the Development of Indirect Source Control Programs", 1990. r SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 3-27 Chapter Three • Growth Management reducing single-occupant vehicle trips, and resulting air polluting emissions, are augmented by the secondary advantages of planning more livable communities and reducing the cost of congestion. Reduced stress, increased worker productivity and enhanced quality of life are added benefits. As noted earlier, the different parts of the region are moving toward better job/housing balance. This tendency is likely to persist for an extended period of time. The positive impacts of this trend, together with local policy interventions to foster land uses supportive of mobility and air quality goals, will be essential for the maintenance and consolidation of mobility and air quality achievements. Progress in advanced technologies and localized land-use actions are primary maintenance strategies of air quality long-term programs. b. RenewaVReplacement Certainly a priority concern, given the rates of change anticipated, should be to guide investment into areas which are deteriorating. The key will be to bring about on-going renewal, arrest and reverse decline, and at the same time avoid levels of change that threaten established communities or overload viable infrastructure. One should not assume that such programs will always entail major densification. Renewal: may include changed reuse of existing structures. Renewal plans will need to encourage job-housing balance, at least at the subregional scale or at medium size city or "cluster of cities" scale. In addition to job-housing balance, it will be desirable to continue to - encourage mixed use centers with moderate densities (see Chapter 4 of the Growth Management Element) to reduce congestion and pollution. Issues of community cohesion and "ownership" or "control" will be a critical part of renewal. An important issue: in renewal is maintenance, or even restoration, of special ecosystems. Additional issues concern the importance of maintaining links to a community's history, achieving levels of urban design and public art which can enrich the quality of urban life, moving towards a sustainable and healthful built environment, minimizing waste and toxic materials, and conserving resources. c. Further Urbanization There will be an ongoing need for further urbanization of presently non-urban land, unless the policy were to force: all growth out of the region's current boundaries, which would be unconstitutional and probably impossible. Most of the prescriptions for renewal/replacement apply for further urbanization as well: achieving job- housing balance and broader scale income integration; encouraging sustainability, good urban design, and centering. For development in new areas there may be no existing community to involve as in renewal development. Rather there will need to be a phasing in of such involvement as an area progressively develops. Linkages to adjoining regions in Mexico, Arizona, and Central and Northern California are likely to also become increasingly important. Long range cost and responsibility for infrastructure should be part of the analysis. The above constitute some of the priority growth management concerns derived from looking beyond 2010. There are undoubtedly others. What is most important is to recognize that changes ahead will probably be at least as dramatic as those behind us and time will not stop at the planning horizon! Page? 3-28 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Y C hsp � c� r� REGIONAL MOBILITY • Introduction • RCP and RME Goals • Objectives (Performance Targets) And Conformity • Regional Mobility Strategy • Regional Transportation Financing Summary A. INTRODUCTION This chapter of the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) is a summary of SCAG's 1993 Draft Regional Mobility Element (RME)'. The RME provides a flexible framework for the discussion and resolution of transportation planning issues expected to confront the SCAG region through the year 2010. The RME serves as both the federal and state required regional transportation plan for the SCAG region. When formally adopted, the RME will replace the 1989 Regional Mobility Plan (RMP) as the guide for developing the federal and state Regional Transportation Improvement Program (RTIP). The economic vitality of Southern California and the individual jobs of millions of workers are dependent on a successful metropolitan transportation system that moves people and goods. This transportation system must be affordable, and must provide for equitable access throughout the region for all people, regardless of income; and for all businesses, both small and large. Furthermore, the metropolitan transportation system must conveniently link neighborhoods to nations, subregions to regions, and everything in between. It needs ' A copy of the complete 1993 Draft Regional Mobility Element may be obtained by contacting SCAG. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 4-1 Chapter Four • Regional Mobility to serve economic, social, and recreational needs of the region. During the next 20 years, if the transportation system is to successfully move people and goods, the region must develop innovative strategies that build on and maximize huge public investments already spent or committed to highways, rail, bus, airports, seaports, and communications technologies. This system must efficiently combine highways, transit, ports, airports, and the proposed high speed rail along the Coastal and the California High Speed Corridors Several key factors differentiate the RME from past transportation plans. Foremost, is concern for the economy, and for this reason, the RME treats transportation as a powerful job creating and cost cutting tool. Another major change impacting the RME is SCAG's decision-making structure, which now involves more elected representatives from a more diverse geographic base. The 20 plus member Executive Committee has expanded to a 70-member Regional Council. In addition, as part of the new "bottom-up" decision-making process, 13 subregional associations are formally participating in the development of the regional plan and its subregional parts.' Also involved are county transportation commissions, Caltrans, transit operators, air districts, California Air Resources Board, public interest organizations, and citizens at large. The passage of the federal 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) has brought about a significant number of new RME requirements and added responsibilities for SCAG. Finally, the federal Clean Air Act (CAA), California Clean Air Act (CCAA), and Lewis-Presley Air Quality Management Act present additional requirements that the RME must consider, including specific performance targets and plan conformity. B. RCP AND RME GOALS The RME must address specific mandated state and federal issues. But in terms of outreach, public comment, and review by SCAG committees, the goal selection process is the same for both the RME and the RCP. For this reason, the locally developed goals for both documents are almost identical in content. Actual language is slightly different as is to be expected. Table 4-1 briefly lists the RME goals and how they compare with the RCP goals. Table 4-2 represents the efforts of the public, professional planners, subregions, government agencies, and SCAG's committees to refine and detail exactly what the RME goals mean to the SCAG region. TABLE 4-1 RCP AND RME GOALS RCP RME • Sustain Mobility Overall Goal Consistent With 5 Sub goals) • Raise Standard of Living o Foster Economic Vitality • Healthy and Environmentally Sound Quality of Life o Enhance the Environment o Reduce Energy Consumption o Promote Transportation-Friendly Development Patterns • Equity o Promote Fair and Equitable Access 2 SCR1 created and funded the California High Speed Rail Commission. Additional funding for high speed rail is budgeted pursuant to Propositions 108 and 116. 3 The subregional input is shown extensively in the complete Regional Mobility Element Page 4-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan a Chapter Four • Regional Mobility TABLE 42 RME GOALS AND SUBGOALS SUSTAIN MOBILITY • Sustain or better the 1990 levels of service for the movement of people and goods. • Ensure that transportation investment provides for the greatest possible mobility benefit. • Serve the transportation needs of everyone including the elderly, handicapped, disadvantaged and transit-dependent. • Develop regional transportation solutions that complement subregional transportation systems and serve the needs of cities and communities. .. . RME S[3>3GOALS Foster Economic Vitality Enhance the Reduce Energy Promote Promote Fair and Equitable Environment Consumption Transportation- Access Friendly Develo ment • Promote transportation • Support • Support • Encourage land- • Improve access to the strategies that support and transportation transportation stra- use development regional rail and bus encourage economic vitality strategies that tegies and patterns that transit and high within the region, and muun-uze impacts investment that complement occupancy vehicle assist in developing the on the environment. decrease the transportation systems for subregions, Southern California region's investments. cities, and neighborhoods economic base. dependence on as well as households of traditional fossil different incomes, race, fuels. and ethnicity. • Promote transportation • Support • Support the • Foster land-use • Improve access to strategies that reduce public transportation development of decisions that effective goods movement and pnvate costs, and policies and actions alternative fuels encourage for households and een rance the region's to meet reasonable technologies for alternatives to the businesses in different competitive position. state and federal air region's vehicles. auto. parts of the region. quality goals and objectives. • Support transportation • Support new • Encourage non- • Promote • Improve access to existing activities that encourage technologies that motorized trips. telecommuting in- and new communications t� production of goods and improve air quality, frastnreture and technology for L services for local mobility, and the work policies. transportation systems, consumption as well as for economy. transportation vehicles, export to other regions. households, and work places in different parts of there ion. • Ensure that the region • Promote 3rd tier • Promote policies and receives the maximum transit, smart procedures that ensure amount of federal, state, shuttles including fair and mutually and private transportation shared taxis, suppportive decisions for funding and the jitneys, dial-a- allocatm public and employment these funds ride, etc. to act as private funds for bring with them, feeder services to transportation in different rail transit and to parts of the region. link transit centers and activity areas. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 4-3 Chapter Four • Regional Mobility C. OBJECTIVES (PERFORMANCE TARGETS) AND CONFORMITY Federal and state statutes contain mandated performance targets that are used to measure the effectiveness of the RME and air quality plans for air basins in the SCAG region (See Table 4-3 for the performance targets). In addition to objectives required by law, as a matter of policy, the RME proposes a performance target range of a 10 to 14 percent transit mode split for Home to Work trips for the year 2010. Finally, both the RME and the RTIP, which is based on the RME, must meet a federal conformity test. Under this federal requirement, SCAG must evaluate all transportation projects proposed in the RTIP and make a finding that the projects are consistent and in conformance with the State Implementation Plan (SIP) for the applicable air basin. Projects or activities that do not conform may be subject to the withholding of federal funding or permits.` Conformity procedures that reflect the needs of each air basin are being developed pursuant to new federal rules released in November, 1993. A conformity determination on this draft plan must be made prior to the adoption by the Regional Council. TABLE 4-3 ]FEDERAL AND STATE LEGALLY REQUIRED OBJECTIVES (PERFORMANCE TARGETS): MOBILITY AND AIR QUALITY CFederal Requirements • Contribute to an increase in peak-period Average Vehicle Ridership(AVR)by large employers with 100 or more employees. — 42 U.S.C. §7511a(d)(1)(B) • Offset with Transportation Control Measures(TCMs)the growth of emissions due to an increase in vehicle trips and Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). -- U.S.C. §7511a(d)(1) • Meet emission budget requirements for mobile sources as determined by final State Implementation Plan/Federal Implementation Plan. CState Requirements • Achieve an average vehicle occupancyy of 1.5 persons per vehicle Buringg commuter peak period hours by 1999 in severe and extreme non-attainment areas. — Ca1.Health and Safety Code 40920 a 2 • Achieve a substantial decrease in the growth of passenger vehicle trips and VMT in serious, severe,and extreme non- attainment areas. — Cal. Health and Safety Code 40919(a)(3) • California Air Resources Board recommends that air districts '...design plans that reduce VMT and tripe growth rates to the maximum degree feasible,and which at a minimum,decrease growth of VMT and trips to the rate of population or household rowth.' • Allow no net increase in mobile source emissions after 1997 in severe and extreme non-attainment areas.—Cal. Health and Safety Code 40920 a • Meet emission budget requirements for mobile sources as determined by final State Implementation Plan/Federal Implementation Plan. ` 42 U.S.C. §7506(c).,43 U.S.C. §176(3)(c). ' CARB California Clean Air Act Transportation Guidance,Transportation Standards,May 1991,Page 3. Page 4-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Four • Regional Mobility D. REGIONAL MOBILITY STRATEGY - There are no magic bullets or easy strategies that the region may employ to achieve the RME goals for mobility or the equally important environmental and economic improvements called for in the RME's subgoals (See Figure 4-1, 1990 E&F Levels of Service). There are, however, very serious federal and state mandates that require the region to meet these goals or face severe sanctions. And, despite impressive rail system improvements and other transportation investments that will cost additional billions of dollars to implement, the region, according to SCAG's computer modeling projections, may not meet its mandated mobility and air quality requirements for 2010. The RME has modeled five scenarios for 2010 based on a mix of transportation strategies or approaches. (See Table 4-5, Mix Of Strategies and Table 4-6, RME Alternatives Compared for Performance). Unfortunately, none of the modeled scenarios meets all the federal and state mobility/air quality requirements for 2010. The Regional Council, with input from the public must review scenarios and strategy mixes and then select a transportation scenario for the region. The selection of a scenario and strategy mix will need to satisfy multiple requirements contained in federal and state transportation laws and federal and state environmental laws. Two primary forces will be the financial constraints (See financial section) and "emission budget" requirements found in these laws (See Table 4-4, Summary of Budget Emissions). The mobility element must be within an "emissions budget" for the respective air basin plans. These budgets have not been set yet and are only finalized when the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approves an air plan for each applicable air basin. Table 4-4 also presents data for the South Coast and Ventura County from the workshops on the impending Federal Implementation Plans (FIP) for these two air basins and the alternatives this plan is considering. None of the alternatives, by themselves, achieve the level of emissions envisioned in the federal plans. Nor do they achieve the same level of emissions called for in the 89/91 plan for the South Coast Basin. W The following is a discussion of two of the alternative scenarios which appear to present the best approach to meeting the requirements the region has: The Constrained Project and an " Innovative Project Series." The latter presents additive programs that would allow the region to increase transit ridership and to provide additional incentives to reduce vehicle miles traveled and/or reduce emissions from on-road vehicles. The issue is how the region wants to adjust its transportation behavior and investments as it balances the constraints of money, environmental objectives and mobility choices. The final plan must be within financial and emission budget limits. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 4-5 '0'J ONIOkltlR2�98M15 � • •oo aoisd3iue r- - - - - - - W - l I _o i I — CO CO > I I z O v Zt Q W z z w R - W CO o z �s I o < R a I W i s J z $ / w LU 1 c" Ovl J S — z w Y r �m z LL 0 >. i LLB , R?; LL. Q I � cl Q rZ � JI W Z Lu =1 w R CD > > > 0 0 Cl) I W > > � � � I J W LL. U I - a T' I Chapter Four • Regional Mobility TABLE 4-4 COMPARISON OF 2010 EMISSIONS GOALS TO RME ALTERNATIVES' EMISSIONS Preliminary FIP data for on-road vehicles (estimated emissions VOC NOx CO budget for attainment). South Coast Air Basin 41" 96"' 387' Ventura County 11" 9" N/A Current Local Plans 96 216 1559 Constrained Project 94 213 1526 Innovative Series Depends on mix of strategies * Estimated from the 1991 Air Quality Management Plan ** Based on EPA data for passenger vehicles; does not provide full credit for ARB end of tailpipe controls. Note: For illustration-actual emission budgets will change depending on the final emission reduction strategy TABLE 4-5 MIX OF STRATEGIES Computer modeled scenarios for meeting the transportation goals and requirement of 2010 are made up of the following "mix of strategies": • Facilities mixed-flow freewav and highways, High-Occupancy-Vehicle freewav and arterial lanes and transit). • Transportation System Management (ramp metering, signal improvement). • Transportation Demand Management (employer based trip reduction, telecommunications, promotion of walking and cvclin ). • Urban Form (integrated design of land use and transportation projects; growth management, job/housing balance policy). • Technology (Mobility: "smart streets" with equipment to adjust intersection signals based on the volume of traffic. Air uality: low and zero emission vehicles). • Market Incentives/Pricin (parking fees toll roads, congestion pricing). 1 . CONSTRAINED PROJECT For the purposes of the RME, the Constrained Project consists of projects and programs that are either being implemented today, or have been budgeted' and will be built or underway before 2010 (See Figures 4-2 to 4-5). Local commitment to long term or "reasonably available" funding is a major new test now imposed on mobility planning under federal ISTEA regulations (See Table 4-7 Reasonably Available Funding Criteria), The Constrained Project also includes the following: • An expanded parking cash out program that is expected to have a positive impact on mobility and air quality. 6 Funded pursuant to 1993-1991 RTIP updated July 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 4-7 trr '00 ONIOtlVNtl38 NVS00 3O1Stl3Altl i � I � � N O N Q �, 0 (} Ci cr W = = * LL a w w s I 0 '00 O9310 N V S uJ / z � o - I � m O z ` w Z A V J 1taj) " $ z \ 1 i R I Ta - C!) $ " e w � U oI - - a W •. rn wl p Q - m o CA - w I V J o = g = W I _ e � —� c L� _ s ° LJJ CC CC Z 0 cn I ° LL o y c 3: iy N ._ 0 0 C - X X O y Im LL 0) W J o ° ° 12 ° m ] a d p � LL m C0 a�" a1 w X "X p z N Q? 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LUJ � Q ' f Z J fn ii 2 .N rn v t0 c m m = tn Q �..� Z 3 ` C N V N o ^ QOj co CL cc 0 d + 'Q n' U ti W 4 T = o Z m p [O N n N mW CY)Q J + a. O C1 U N N V � t0 = ^ O N � u v W - H Z °6 O C x C N N .^- N cr CL lU M n C7 U 0 m U 0) C m C7 Ci = Q Co CA CC.) N c Qo ti, d �j (D ¢R s oc Ln g cor Ui L) s o e c !b .► Lfp a�n u to 4L Ct __pp__ Q, "L!U cl u en z: UJ CL a Chapter Four • Regional Mobility • Improved local feeder system consisting of shared taxis, jitneys, and shuttles to support line haul rail by making rail transit more accessible. • County Congestion Management Programs (CMP) as required by law.' In this Draft RME, the Constrained Project comes close but does not meet the requirement of reasonably available funding — an issue that must be resolved prior to final RME adoption in the first quarter of 1994. Of equal concern, based on SGAG's computer modeling, the alternative's proposed system improvements provide at best a 1.46 Average Vehicle Ridership (AVR), which does not meet the state required 1.5 AVR for all peak period trips by the year 1999. Failure to meet mobility and air quality mandates could subject the RME to possible EPA sanctions or lawsuits that could freeze federal funding for the region. TABLE 4-7 REASONABLY AVAILABLE FUNDING CRITERIA • Has the proposed implementing agency (local, regional, state or federal government or private organization)taken a formal action by the time of Plan adoption to authorize the funding source? • Is there a historical trend that resources of this type are usually approved by the public or their representatives? • Have private sector organizations(such as the Chamber of Commerce,trade organizations, businesses,private task forces, etc.) shown support(e.g. policy, action, education) for the proposed funding mechanism? • Has the state or federal government taken action required as a prerequisite or condition for enabling the resource by the time of Plan adoption? To be considered"reasonably available," each of the criteria must be answered YES or NOT APPLICABLE. Criteria will be interpreted broadly. The specific funding source,along with the analysis, will be brought forward through the SCAG committee process for discussion and approval.' L 2. INNOVATIVE PROJECT SERIES To better meet air quality and mobility requirements and avoid federal sanctions, the RME also proposes an alternative to the Constrained Project, featuring a mix of strategies or innovative steps. This alternative is referred to as the "Innovative Project Series." More than a stand-alone alternative project, the Innovative Project Series focuses on advanced technology and pricing options that may be implemented in either a limited or aggressive fashion. The public and regional decision-makers will be able to weigh and adopt all, parts, or various strategy mixes, that make up the Innovative Project Series. The Innovative Project Series builds on the Constrained Project by prudently expanding projects and programs using reasonably available funds plus innovative public and private funding sources. (Under ISTEA, projected revenue sources, beyond those already identified in the Constrained Project may be used to fund the Innovative Project Series, provided specific strategies are identified to ensure availability of projected revenues). The Innovative Project Series, in its basic configuration generates a 1.49 AVR and of all the alternatives comes the closest to meeting the state required 1.5 AVR for all peak period trips. Using advanced technology or market pricing or some combination of both strategies, the Innovative Project Series ' Cal. Gov't Code§65081(b)and§65089.2(a)(b). ' Funding criteria approved August 1993 by SCAG Transportation and Communications Committee. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 4-13 Chapter Four • Regional Mobility presents decision-makers with perhaps the only opportunity to meet mobility and air quality requirements for 2010. The "basic" core of the Innovative Project Series calls for: • Additional Metrolink service including improved headways and reverse commute runs. • Additional express bus service, particularly in Orange County. • Signal system improvements resulting in bus priority on key arterials in Los Angeles County. • Additional HOV lanes on the 118 and 23 freeways in Ventura County and the 101 Freeway in Los Angeles County. • Trip reductions from increases in telecommuting and from expansion of walking and non-motorized trips. • Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS)/Advanced Transportation Management System (ATMS) technologies are planned to increase freeway capacity by 10 percent and arterial capacity by 5 percent. • Limited pricing strategy, based on increased parking charges produces a 1.5 AVR for all peak period commute trips. The basic core also significantly expands shared taxis, shuttles and jitneys to serve all major activity centers. This builds on the feeder service to line haul transit centers already called out in the Constrained Project. This expansion of the " third tier" of transit is proposed because the constrained project is focusing mostly on tiers one and two of transit systems. Tier one is the longer distance line haul service like Metrolink, some express bus services and other longer distance rail services. The second tier is the support bus and paratransit service that provides service to connect to the tier one service or medium distance services and can connect communities. The third tier is localized, short trip service that is more community oriented. This can also provide service to the local rail station. The average trip length on the current transit system is about four miles. The average trip length in the region is currently eight miles (See Table 4-8, Three-tier Transit System Expansion, for a full discussion on use of shared taxis,jitneys, and advanced technology smart shuttles). TABLE 4-8 THIRD-TIER TRANSIT SYSTEM EXPANSION CThird-tier Transit System Expansion 41 The"Third-tier Transit"'concept was analyzed by the Urban Innovations Group(UIG) in connection with a SCAG funded analysis entitled "Regional Urban Form Study". The study suggests that land use strategies that call for concentrating growth at transit stations will by themselves not meet regional air and mobility goals. According to UIG, concentrating growth at.rail stations will increase the modal split for transit in the home-to-work market above the trendline projections,but may result in localized congestion that offsets advances in mobility and air quality. SCAG's own computer modelingg under the Urban Form Alternative substantially corroborates the aG observations. The UIG study then premises and models a multi-tiered, flexible response transportation system that maximizes and supports current and planned rail transit projects this model generates a modal split that falls in the 15-25% range. 41 The Innovative Project Series, features a range of third-tier transit services starting with shared taxis, shuttles, itneys and progressing to advanced technology "zero emission smart shuttles" that can be computer routed for short spe�y trips. This would augment local services already being provided. a, Concept takes advantage of fact that most trips average eight miles. Small vehicles are well suited to the short trip market and the hard to serve medium trip market. 0 It is envisioned that the smart shuttle would be primarily privately operated under public policy management and oversight. 9 Regional Urban Form Study,Urban Innovations Group,August 9, 1993 Page 4-14 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Four • Regional Mobility Third-tier Transit System Expansion • Concept builds on and accrues the advantages of urban form strategies which reduce motorized trips by placing goods, services and other activities all within a short walking trip of home and work. • Concept has numerous potential benefits including modal shifts in the non-home-to-work travel market; reduced public expenditures because third tier transit is all or partially privately financed; and sustainable employment and economic development opportunities. Long-term jobs will be created in regional manufacturing of shuttles as well as in entry and mid level work opportunities in driving, operations and maintenance. Overall, Third-tier transit could become part of a sustainable re onal manufacturin base roducin hi h tech products for both local consum lion and global export. Innovative Project Series - Aggressive Use of Advanced Technology: According to Urban Innovations Group (UIG) modeling analysis, adding computerized or smart shuttles to the strategy mix for the Innovative Project Series would maximize the third-tier of the system already specified in the base core of this alternative. Such a responsive, extensive transit service would provide a home-to-work modal split in the 15 percent to 25 percent range. Aggressive implementation of all three tiers of the Transit system would allow the region to meet state and federal mobility and air quality mandates. This probably cannot be achieved with the present financial resources available to the region and/or current investments being made on transportation. The operating assistance to maintain and operate the existing and planned system is rapidly using up the region's financial flexibility. The SCAG advanced Transportation Technology Task Force is developing specific recommendations in the utilization of this concept and will make recommendations to the Regional Council for plan adoption. Innovative Project Series - Aggressive use of Market Incentives/Pricing Mechanisms: Year 2010 VMT reductions of almost 12 percent over baseline have been modeled by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) for the Southern California region using an aggressive package of market incentives.10 A similarly modeled package of innovative market incentives for the San Francisco Bay area also produced 12 percent reductions - in VMT for the same time period". SCAG sensitivity runs, which considered pricing assumptions for auto operations, transit, and parking that were similar, though distinctly different to those used in the EDF and San Francisco, studies reported significant improvements in mode splits. However, the SCAG model runs for market incentives' most dramatic finding was that when proceeds from market incentives are re-invested in transportation service enhancements such as reduced headways, the mobility indicators are more than doubled. Or to put it another way, the same transportation improvements can be obtained with considerably less costly pricing mechanisms if income is reinvested in service improvements. (See Table 4-9, Market Incentives/Pricing Mechanisms). Aggressive implementation of a market incentive program would allow the region to meet state and federal mobility and air quality mandates. 10 Transportation Efficiency: Tackling Southern California's Air Pollution and Congestion, Michael Cameron, March 1991, , Environmental Defense Fund,Regional Institute of Southern California. Harvey,Greig,Pricing and Travel Behavior,June 15, 1993. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 4-15 Chapter Four • Regional Mobility Long-term Market Incentives/Pricing Mechanisms strategies currently being examined under the Innovative Project Series include accelerated parking cash out, peak-hour congestion pricing, emissions charges for gross polluters, and emissions fees based on emissions per mile. The Market Incentives Task Force will make specific recommendations on the use of market incentives to the Regional Council for inclusion in the adopted plan. TABLE 4-9 MARKET INCENTIVES/PRICING MECHANISMS ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE'FUND/RISC STUDY SCAG SENSITIVITY RUN,PACKAGE BAY AREA PRICING MARCH 1991 5, 1993 DISCUSSION DOCUMENT STUDY JUNE 15 1993 Strate v Pricing Level Pricing Level Pricing Level Regional Congestion $3.00/day/vehicle $0.10 per mile Piicin Regional Employee $2.25/day/vehicle $3.00 per day minimum or current levels $3.00 per day Parking Charge if higher minimum & 10 minute Bus Service higher where already (transit = $'h) higher free transit Reggional Non-Employee $0.30/day Arterial HOV Lanes $ 0.01 per minute Pi irking Charge $0.60 per hour ($3.00 per day maximum VMT/Smog-Based $110/year $0.05 per mile average$125 per Registration Fee vehicle Gasoline Tax Increase p$1.00 r gallon $2.00 r gallon Net Impacts 12 % t in VMT Vehicle 1 ri (T)Reduced 014.8%41987 4 in • 9.5% 1 for VMT Non-Home-to-Work •15.9% 1 in VTrips 2010 •11.6% 1 in VMT •12.096 1 in VTri s Cote: Modeling methodologies,assumptions,and 2010 population projections vary greatly from one study to another. 3. LISTING OF ALL MODELED ALTERNATIVES 1989 RMP Adopted Plan (No Project for The EIR): Though it would not meet current funding requirements, this alternative until revised or replaced continues as the adopted plan for mobility for the SCAG region and the adopted TCM in the 1991 air plan for the SCAB. This alternative reflects the impacts of new (higher) socioeconomic data forecasts, with the assumption of a distribution representing jobs/housing balance. Some of the projects and programs can be funded (constrained) and some cannot (unconstrained). Page 4-16 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Four • Regional Mobility Baseline #I: This scenario represents the "No-Build" Project, as it includes only those transportation improvements currently under construction or fully environmentally cleared, but includes no mixed-flow highway improvements per an agreement with SCAG and the California Air Resources Board (ARB) in the board's conditional approval of the 1991 Air Quality Plan for the SCAB. Projects and programs currently programmed for implementation by the year 2010 by the County Transportation Commissions and Caltrans, as of July, 1993, are included in this scenario. The alternative is based on existing funding, which is within the criteria for reasonably available funding. Current Local Plans: Projects and programs currently programmed for implementation by the year 2010 by the County Transportation Commission and Caltrans, as of July 1993, are included in this scenario. The alternative is based on existing funding, which is within the criteria for reasonably available funding. Constrained Project (The RME Project for the EIR): This scenario is similar to Current Local Plans, in terms of the physical improvements included, but includes minor policy changes aimed at encouraging alternative modes of transportation, such as Katz parking cash-out program and the federal energy act. It includes only those programs that are likely to be fundable based on reasonably available funding. Innovative Project Series: This scenario builds upon the Current Local Plans and the Constrained Project by adding a prudent number of improvements, based on reasonably available funds plus innovative funding sources, and emphasis on pricing strategies and technology to achieve the 1.5 AVR objective for all peak period trips. Also included are optional advanced technology and market incentives/pricing mechanisms which may be added to the basic core of this alternative. Urban Form Alternative: This scenario looks at the impact of a revised land use distribution with the transportation improvements included in the Current Local Plans alternative. The urban form distribution included in this model run concentrated higher density development around rail stations. 4. REGIONAL AVIATION SYSTEM PROGRAM r The SCAG region contains the largest system of airports in the world. There are 56 public-use civilian airports and 10 other military air installations, two of which have been marked for closure by the Department of Defense and one that will be realigned and downsized. One other military airbase is under study for military/civilian joint-use. In 1991, the region's commercial airport system served 61.8 million annual passengers and 1.5 million tons of air cargo. Most of this demand was served by five urban-area commercial airports. These airports include Los Angeles International, Ontario International, John Wayne, Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena, and Long Beach. Other commercial service airports serving the region include Oxnard, William J. Fox, Palmdale, Palm Springs and Imperial County. While the SCAG region is first in aviation activity compared to any other region in the world, it has been beset by an expected shortfall in commercial airport capacity after the year 2000. This shortfall was expected because existing commercial airports were limited below physical capacity due to policy constraints resulting from environmental impacts. A strategy was followed to increase capacity by identifying new airport sites, or s modal substitutes such as high-speed rail. These efforts were successful in identifying potential new airport sites, but unsuccessful in finding sites that were technically feasible and acceptable to local communities. In light of the announced military airbases closures, airport capacity shortfall may be significantly mitigated. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 4-17 Chapter Four • Regional Mobility The currently emerging strategy is for the military airbases and a site in the Long Beach Harbor to compete for market share. An evaluation of the potential market share of each airbase is currently being conducted by SCAG. Commercial airport ground access is another major concern. As airports reach their physical capacity, access infrastructure will become increasingly congested. While additional facilities may be needed, these must be balEmced with inter-modal and multi-modal access strategies. Ground transportation modeling and analysis will be conducted for all five urban-area commercial airports to achieve the latter. The general aviation system is under increasing budgetary pressures as local governments experience the effects of recession. This is occurring during a period when the roles of general aviation airports are changing from recreational uses to more support for business, government uses and emergency response. A study of these trends is underway. Another major concern is the strategic role of the aviation system in contributing to the economic recovery of the region and future economic development, particularly in relation to international trade. New international relationships, new technology, and new aviation capabilities need to be assessed to determine the best direction for the region. 5. GOODS MOVEMENT PROGRAM Goods movement in the SCAG region is critically linked to the local economy and has significant impact on mobility, the environment, quality of life, and land use. Foreign trade makes up a major part of regional goods movement and has emerged as a major sector in the region's economic base. The volume of merchandise traded through the Los Angeles Customs District has grown from $6.2 billion in 1972 to $121.8 billion in 1992. Total trade, imports and exports combined, on the region's rail and highway systems has increased by 16 percent per year. In terms of employment, the U.S. Department of Commerce computes that for every additional $1 billion of U.S. exports, 19,000 jobs are created through: • Increased demand for manufactured goods. • ]increased goods delivery which supports thousands of jobs in the trucking, wholesale trade, railroad, shipping and air cargo industries • ]increased service support for business travelers which means more jobs in the hotel, travel, and restaurant industries. Few, improvements to the region can have as great and beneficial impact as enhancement of goods movement. Clearly such improvements help the region sustain mobility which is the principal goal of the RME. Equally importantly, betterment of the goods movement system helps raise the standard of living for a significant portion of the region's work force. Creating more jobs and increasing regional commerce hinges on efforts to make goods movement more competitive and yet still meet new federal and state air quality requirements that have been mandated for the region. This is one of the thorniest and most serious dilemmas facing the region today. However, as Page 4-18 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Four • Regional Mobility discussed more extensively in the economic chapter of the RCP; from an historical perspective, nations and regions have actually become more competitive by successfully learning to resolve conflicting interests. (See Chapter Two, The Economy, in the Draft RCP.) Major goods movement facilities in the SCAG region include the ports of Hueneme, Long Beach, and Los Angeles; airport operations at Burbank, John Wayne, Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Ontario; and a system of railroads, freeways, highways, and arterial truck routes. Issues confronting the efficient movement of goods are the following: • System Improvements: Development, operation and maintenance of the region's significant existing and proposed freight movement facilities is essential to revitalizing the Southern California economy. Key improvements are the following: • Completion of the Alameda Corridor is essential to the region's fight to stay competitive in the world market. Three quarters of a million jobs and the loss of port business to seaports in Ensenada; Mexico, and Tacoma, Washington are tied to the successful funding and approval of the Alameda Project. • Extension of improved highway access to the Port of Hueneme in Ventura County is also critical to the efficient and cost effective movement of goods within the SCAG region as well as in out of the SCAG region to other international markets. • Study of freight rail corridor consolidation east towards Barstow in San Bernardino County to evaluate the long term efficient movement of goods. • Completion of the new Calexico East Port of Entry and final resolution of connection issues has taken on a new sense of urgency with the approval by Congress of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). • Energy: The common thread that runs through all aspects of goods movement from air quality issues to cost of operations is "energy". A fix of one energy-related problem frequently adds or creates problems elsewhere. For example, the search for cleaner emissions can drive up operating costs to cover use of more expensive clean fuels. • Safety: Freight accidents and incidents on the region's roadways drive up cost of goods and reduce mobility for all other users of highway/freeway systems. • Mode: System inefficiencies and mode conflicts drive up costs and reduce the region's competitiveness. The Alameda Corridor improvements are designed to increase the region's businesses competitiveness by removing bottlenecks in the ship to truck/train network. • Truck & Rail: Truck and rail move goods to and from the SCAG region and are responsible almost exclusively for delivery to wholesale, retail, and industrial sites. Trade-offs between the two that will be required to meet the regions' goals and mandates for mobility, air quality, and standard of living must consider the totality of the truck and rail systems. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 4-19 Chapter Four • Regional Mobility • Urban Form: Land-use designs and infrastructure development do not adequately accommodate the needs of goods movement. Off-Peak-hour truck use of highways and streets can improve mobility overall, reduce the cost of doing business, and increase competitiveness. However, off peak hour deliveries may require early morning or late evening shipping to retail outlets which are frequently surrounded by residential neighborhoods. To be accepted by the public, deliveries during non-traditional hours must be made to on site shipping docks that are designed to shelter and insulate surrounding residences from noise and light. 6. TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURES Transportation Control Measures (TCMs) are strategies designed to reduce the amount of motor-vehicle based emissions by changing the way people make trips, by alleviating traffic congestion, and by facilitating infrastructure changes to promote alternatives to single-occupant vehicles. Strategies and requirements for TCMs used to meet air quality requirements differ for each of the region's six non-attainment areas. However, maximum use of reasonably available TCMs in conjunction with all other strategies (stationary and area) is mandated by law.12 (See Table 4-10 for federal and state TCM requirements.) TABLE 4-10 FEDERAL AND STATE TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURES REQUIREMENTS FEDERAL STATE 108(f) list of TCMs Implement TCMs considered reasonably available TCMs must be: AQMP to provide for TCMs Enforceable Quantifiable Replicable Accountable Contribute to an increase in large employer Average Vehicle Ranked by cost-effectiveness Ridership Offset growth in emissions due to increases in VMT or Monitoring procedures for compliance and effectiveness Vehicle Trips 1.5 peak hour Average Vehicle Occupancy by 1999 Substantially reduce the rate of increase in VMT Publicly acceptable '= Federal Clean Air.Act,Lewis-Presley Act, California Clean Air Act, ISTEA Page 4-20 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Four • Regional Mobility As part of the air quality plan development process, SCAG is responsible for providing socio-economic data for three air basins: • The Ventura County portion of the South Central Coast Air Basin. • Portions of the Southeast Desert Air Basin including Mojave Desert AQMD area, Coachella Valley and Antelope Valley. • The South Coast Air Basin (SCAB). In the South Coast Air Basin, SCAG in cooperation with local governments is also responsible by statute for developing and providing TCMs to the SCAQMD for inclusion in the Air Quality Management Plan. Additionally, SCAG's role is to ensure conformity with the applicable SIP, to monitor and to ensure that the RME and RTIP gives priority to TCMs. Several SCAG Task Forces made up principally of local government representatives have assisted in providing policy level input into the TCM development process. These committees include the following: Advanced Transportation Technology Task Force; Market Incentives Task Force; Aviation Technical Advisory Committee; Regional Railroad Air Quality Emission Reduction Program; and the joint SCAG/SCAQMD TCM Policy Committee. While specific recommendations for the South Coast TCMs are still outstanding, initial indications are E that the basin's TCM efforts will consist of a comprehensive mobile source emission reduction strategy based on the following: • Mobility Improvements: Closer coordination and integration of air quality and congestion relief measures through the CMP and deficiency plan process are being examined. The impacts of transportation facility improvement are also being addressed. • Technology: Providing innovative technological means to reduce vehicular emissions is likely to be an important cornerstone of the strategy. • Market Incentives/Pricing: Such strategies could be used either to enhance or substitute for TCMs. Market incentives have the potential to also fund needed transportation improvements. • Non-vehicular Mobile Source Emission Reductions: Railroad, airport ground access and goods movement emissions are being re-examined for implementation at the federal, state and regional level. One of the major issues being debated currently in the SCAB is the structure or mechanism that will be used to implement TCMs. There appears to be three thrusts to this issue: (1) reliance on regional rules (2) pricing, and (3) market/service responsive approaches. Non-Auto TCMs: In addition to efforts to achieve emission reductions from vehicles, the South Coast Air Basin has also included strategies to reduce emissions from planes and trains. The roles and specific ` responsibilities of various agencies involved in implementing these TCMs are still being debated. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 4-21 Chapter Four • Regional Mobility Regional Railroad Emissions Control Measure: The Railroad Emissions Control Measure from the 1989/91 South Coast Air Plan is being refined for the 1994 Ozone SIP Submittal. This measure is focuses on railroad operations in the South Coast Air Basin, including freight, commuter, and intercity passenger trains. It could have implications on the surrounding air basin as well. The intent is to reduce oxides of nitrogen from diesel-electric locomotives. Key concerns include: ensuring that adverse modal diversion from trains to trucks does not occur; the development of a comprehensive financing plan; and the provision of a backstop measure. The decision process for establishing control methods needed to achieve a substantially greater reduction in 2010 emissions is as follows. A Regional Railroad Air Quality Emission Reduction Program has been established, with a Policy Board and five Standing Committees: the Locomotive Propulsion Systems, Finance, Legal, Consolidation, and Freight Movements Committees. In addition, an Emissions Reduction Target Subcommittee will finalize the emissions reduction target for 2010 (currently set at 90%). The previous Railroad Emissions Measure called for Railroad Electrification. The current form of the measure is technology-neutral, and calls for one or a combination of the following strategies to be used to lower locomotive emissions: clean diesel, SCR, cleaner fuels such as LNG used by gas engines or dual- fuel engines, electrification, and/or new locomotive power plants such as fuel cells. A series of studies and demonstration projects will be completed by the beginning of 1996, permitting comparisons between alternative control methods, including feasibility and time to commercialization, life-cycle costs, and funding/financial plans required for implementation. The Policy Board will refine the Railroad Emissions Reduction Measure as appropriate, by June 1996. Aviation Transportation Control Measure: The respective roles and responsibilities of the various agencies involved in implementing aviation Transportation Control Measures (TCM's) are still being debated. Currently, SCAG is developing ground access plans for all the air carrier airports, the SCAQMD is developing an indirect source rule that will be applied to these airports, and EPA is developing an airport control strategy pursuant to the Federal Implementation Plan (FIP). The exact division of responsibilities between these agencies in implementing aviation TCM's will be determined in the future. E. REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION FINANCING SUMMARY Table 4-11 illustrates a regional cost-revenue summary for the facilities in the Constrained Project for the year 2010 of the RME. The revenues fall short of covering costs by 5 billion dollars. At this time the shortfall is a major issue. Most of the shortage is for transit capital and operations. The revenues are based on estimates of federal, state, and local funds that are judged to be reasonably available for various categories of projects. The revenues and costs were developed through discussions from the county transportation commissions and Caltrans. ,SCAG and transportation agency staffs are continuing to review costs and review estimates in order to bring forward proposals for resolving the shortfall issue. A balanced budget is necessary to meet state and federal requirements. Page 4-22 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Four • Regional Mobility TABLE 4-11 1993 REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT COST-REVENUE SUMMARY (a) 1991 - 2010 "PROGRAM COST % REVENUE NET Highway Operating $6.4 11.8 $6.3 ($0.1) Transit Operating 22.9 42.7 21.0 (1.9) Regional Streets and 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.7 Roads Highway Capital 10.6 19.6 9.0 (1.6) Transit Capital 12.7 23.7 9.7 (3.0) Transportation Demand 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 Management (b) Non-motorized 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 Transportation (b) TOTAL - ALL 53.7 100.0 48.5 (5.2) PROGRAMS (a) All dollars are in billions (b) Preliminary estimates ISSUES IN NEED OF FURTHER STUDY The RME raises strategy issues that need to be addressed by regional and subregional decision-makers. 1. MOBILITY AND AIR QUALITY • How can transportation and air quality requirements for mobility and air quality be met under federal and state law to prevent funding sanctions? 2. FUNDING SHORTFALL FOR THE RME • Given current estimates of a five billion dollar shortfall, how will the region pay for facilities and programs that are needed to meet federal and state mobility and air quality requirements? Can more funds that meet the reasonably funded criteria be identified? As an alternative to budget increases, can facilities and programs be prioritized for funding? Can project costs be reduced? SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 4-23 Chapter Four • Regional Mobility AMENDMENTS Recognizing the need for amendments, SCAG will commit to at least one major amendment, if needed, every two years between plan adoption dates. This includes preparation of the conformity statement. Plan amendments that do not require preparation of a conformity statement may be prepared more frequently. The RTP will be certified periodically as required by state and federal law. Page 4-24 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan AIR QUALITY • Introduction and Overview • Air Quality Goal • Air Districts and Air Basins in the SCAG Region • Baseline Emissions and Air Quality • Future Emissions and Air Quality • Air Quality Improvements Achieved !" Air Quality Standards and Attainment Status • Air Quality Plans • Current Strategy for Air Quality Implementation • Major Air Quality and Strategic Issues and Related Actions A. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW The Air Quality chapter is derived from adopted air quality plans of the four air districts in the three air basins within the SCAG region, from other sources available from the air districts, and from California Air Resources Board (ARB) data. The emphasis is on the 1991 air quality plans, but perspective is provided on pre-1991 plans and 1992 air plans prepared to meet the new federal requirements. The need for the region's forthcoming 1994 federal and state air quality attainment plans and the emerging Federal Implementation Plan (FIP) for the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) and Ventura County part of the South Central Coast Air Basin (SCCAB) will be based on SCAG's new regional growth forecasts. The current air plans were based on a regional population forecast of 18.3 million, whereas the new air plans will SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 5-1 Chapter Five •Air Quality need to reflect a 20.5 million forecast for the year 2010. SCAG's regional growth forecasts for 2015 will also benefit the SCAB by providing a foundation for meeting the maintenance requirements of the federal Clean Air Act. SCAG and the region's air districts have either entered into or are in the process of developing memorandums of understanding on the use of the regional growth forecasts in the districts' air quality plans. The ozone State Implementation Plans (SIPS) required under federal law are to be completed and submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by November 15, 1994. The air quality management or attainment plans required under state law are required to be submitted to the California Air Resources Board (APB) by December 31, 1994. A draft of the FIPs for South Coast and Ventura is due February 15, 1994, with the final plans a year later. The chapter neither replaces nor modifies the air plans. It does, however, identify federal and state actions on these plans through October 1993, as well as changes to attainment designations, legislation, and federal or state policies that have occurred since the plans were adopted. It also provides quantitative and qualitative information and perspective on past, current, and future air quality and on air quality planning and management in the region. The regions' air quality problem is described, changes in the future are noted, and similarities and differences between the regions' air plans are characterized. The chapter describes the policy direction of the adopted air plans in terms of goals and implementation strategies. In addition, the chapter identifies seven current air quality and strategic issues that need to be addressed in future air plan revisions. These issues are organized by the following four central themes: • How does the region make air quality planning and decision making more efficient? • How does the region balance improving air quality with the need to meet the challenge of increased population and employment growth and a changing economic base? • How can public/private sector partnerships be fostered to meet the challenges of improving air quality, enhancing mobility, conserving energy, and providing for a dynamic healthy economy? • How can the problem of interbasin and intrabasin pollutant transport be dealt with more efficiently and fairly, thus reducing exposure to pollution for all groups? The chapter supports two of the goal categories of the Regional Comprehensive Plan. It facilitates an improved standard of living by encouraging sustained economic growth, through the balancing of air quality and the economy; and through the creation of new industries and products required to achieve cleaner air; and provides for a better quality of life by enhancing/maintaining air quality, and by fostering the provision of adequate transportation for all residents while meeting clean air goals; and promotes equity by reducing exposure to pollution for all groups. The chapter is closely related to the Regional Mobility chapter and many of the issues originally raised in the Air Quality chapter of the Regional Comprehensive Plan Discussion Document are now dealt with in the Regional Transportation Control Measure Programs section of the Regional Mobility chapter. The transportation sector is a major contributor to deteriorating air quality in the region. It also provides an opportunity for the application of new technologies and emerging market mechanisms to help in mitigating this problem. Page 5-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Five •Air Quality The Air Quality chapter supports strategies that are compatible with those contained in The Economy chapter, like streamlined regulations, new transportation systems and emerging technologies. Expanding and diversifying the region's economic base is promoted through the development of industrial clusters, an electric vehicle industry, new transportation systems and technology industries, and facilitating the location of "clean industries". Economic transitions and competitiveness are facilitated by actions in the chapter which encourage the streamlining of air district regulations and requirements. Finally, the chapter stresses public- private cooperation to aid business competitiveness, by fostering and supporting public-private joint ventures and partnerships, such as Calstart, Project California, Regional Economic Strategies Consortium and Project Southern California. The chapter is based on a more detailed technical background document' which provides more information on the subjects addressed herein. It includes the complete presentation on the thirty issues which provided the basis for selecting the seven issues presented at the end of this chapter. B. AIR QUALITY GOAL The goal of air quality planning in the SCAG region is: Clean Air in All Parts of the SCAG Region This goal is the foundational premise on which the region's air quality plans have and will continue to be based. It is also similarly stated or implied in many of the subregional plans. C. AIR DISTRICTS AND AIR BASINS IN THE SCAG REGION The four air districts in the SCAG region are the following: • South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD). C Ventura County Air Pollution Control District (VCAPCD). • Mojave Desert Air Quality Management District (MDAQMD)—formerly the San Bernardino County Air Pollution Control District (SBCAPCD). • Imperial County Air Pollution Control District (ICAPCD). c ' Preliminary Draft-Regional Air Quality Management Technical Background Document,SCAG,July 1, 1993. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 •Page 5-3 Chapter Five •Air Quality The California ARB divides the state into air basins based on similar meteorological and geographic conditions, and, to the extent feasible, political boundary lines. The three air basins in the SCAG region are the following: • South Coast Air Basin (SCAB), wholly within the jurisdiction of the SCAQMD. • South Central Coast Air Basin (SCCAB), partially the responsibility of the VCAPCD. • Southeast Desert Air Basin (SEDAB), of which the SCAQMD, the MDAQMD and the ICAPCD each administer a portion in the SCAG region. The locations and relationships of the four air districts and the three air basins in the SCAG region are shown in Figure 5-1. D. BASELINE EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY Air pollutant concentrations result from meteorological conditions and from the amount of emissions produced or transported into an area. With the exception of certain areas with large industrial sources, the amount of emissions is generally proportional to the size of the population in the area. Daily emissions in 1987 which were used for baseline planning in the three air basins, are shown in Figure 5-2. Only limited data exists on emissions from the Los Angeles County portion of SEDAB because no plan was prepared. Total emissions for 1987 are further detailed in Table 5-1, which identifies stationary (industries, utilities, etc.) and area (consumer products, etc.) source emissions in comparison with mobile (on-road and off-road vehicles) source emissions. The South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) produces far more emissions from automobile and population-dependent usages than the other basins combined. In the SCAG region, the SCAB produces 81 percent of the reactive organic compound (ROC) and 80 percent of the nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions that combine to form ozone. It also releases 85 percent of the carbon monoxide (CO) emissions. Mobile sources contribute 45 percent of ROC emissions is in Ventura County, 50 percent in SCAB, and 59 percent in the San Bernardino part of SEDAB. Based on inventories in the district plans, the SCAB produces only 47 percent of the region's fine particulate matter (PMio) emissions that result from many activities, including agricultural and. construction operations which release large amounts of dust into the air. However, these percentages are misleading since the SCAB emission totals exclude emissions from natural sources. The impact of natural sources is evident in Imperial County, where only three out of 994 tons per day of particulate emissions in the inventory are from automobiles, but 865 tons per day are attributed to natural sources. Page 5-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Five •Air Quality Figure 5-1 AIR BASINS AND AIR DISTRICTS IN THE SCAG REGION Southeast Desert Air Basin South Central South Coast Coast Air Basin Air Basin Ventura j County Los Angeles County / an mardino County Coun ty �Bound Orange Riverside County Air Basin Boundary County �/ Ventura County A South Coast AQMD Imperial County ® Mojave Desert AQMD ® Imperial County APCD SOURCE: California Air Resourm Board,1992 Air Quality Data Summary E. FUTURE EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY All district plans project substantial reductions in emissions by 2010. Mobile source controls adopted by the ARB are a key factor in each plan and will, in some cases, result in lower emissions for certain pollutants without new control measures and in spite of large population growth. The SCAQMD projects that ROC emissions in the SCAB will decline by 22 percent in 2010 over those in 1987 without AQMP measures and by 61 percent with new measures. Percentage reductions for other districts are much lower and in some cases there is a substantial increase in emissions. Ventura County shows a 31 percent increase in ROC emissions without controls. Projected emissions for each district in 2010 are shown in Figures 5-3 and 5-4. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 •Page 5-5 Chapter Five •Air Quality 1 Figure 5.2 1987 BASELINE EMISSIONS BY POLLUTANT 5000 4500 Pollutant . ROC 1500 NOx ® CO - 10001 ® PM10 � I 500 , 0 , S.Central-Ventura SE Desert-Im rial S.Coast SE Desert-S, Bern./Mojave rE Desert-Coachella Vly Air Basin-Area Count Source: 1991 District Air Duality Attainment Plans Page 5-6 - December 1993 SCAG - Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Five •Air Quality TABLE 5-1 1987 BASELINE EMISSIONS BY POLLUTANT (IN TONS/DAY) Air Basin and Reactive Organic Nitrogen Oxides Carbon Monoxide Particulate Subarea(Jurisdiction) Compounds(ROC) (NOx) (CO) Matter (PMto) 60.0 C COAST AIR 8ASJN--Orange and non-4esert areas&L.os Angeles,Sart.6ernardino.and Riverside counties'(SCAtlhtl Total Emissions 1375 1208 4988 1076 Stationary/Area Source Emissions 687 290 99 1006 Mobile Source Emissions 688 918 4889 70 SOUTIICENTAL C(?AS7 AlR!BAS1AiM llert#irrs:Gount}r(YCAPC13� Total Emissions 91 81 290 62 Stationary/Area Source Emissions 50 27 32 57 Mobile Source Emissions 41 54 258 5 _ _ ..._. :SOUTHEAST TDESERT:AIR.BASIN W.San Bernardino Desert(MDAQM©)'. Total Emissions 50 134 Stationary/Area Source Emissions 20 62 Mobile Source Emissions 30 71 t pertal Co.(ICAPCD) Total Emissions 31 32 127 944 Stationary/Area Source Emissions 15 8 35 941 Mobile Source Emissions 16 24 92 3 ?Coachella Va€!ey-Riversde Qo (SCAQM©) Total Emissions 157 62 452 261 r Stationary/Area Source Emissions 109 5 23 257 Mobile Source Emissions 48 57 429 4 The forthcoming (draft in February 1994 and final in February 1995) Federal Implementation Plans for the SCAB and Ventura County will be based emissions projections for 2010 and 2005 respectively. The projections which EPA is currently using are based on a SCAG region total of 18.3 million in 2010, not on the new population forecast of 20.5 million, and corresponding employment growth forecasts. These projections are depicted on Figures 5-5, 5-6, 5-7, and 5-8 for volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen C oxides (NOx). Atmospheric ozone is formed when VOCs react with NOx in the presence of sunlight. Throughout the Air Quality chapter the term reactive organic compound (ROC) is used. It is similar to EPA's VOC, except that VOC excludes ethane and perchloroethylene. The Regional Mobility chapter reflects increases in emissions from mobile sources which are reflective of the new population and economic growth forecasts. These emissions projections for 2010 from the "Baseline 1" alternative (automobiles and light duty trucks) are as follows: ROG (109 tons/day), CO (1,779 tons/day) and NOx (225 tons/day). The corresponding daily vehicle miles traveled for all trips is 430 million. The ` consequences of these new mobile source emission projections, especially in the SCAB, are illustrative of the challenge faced by policy makers in designing strategies in the 1994 air quality plans. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 •Page 5-7 Chapter Five -Air Quality Figure 5-3 2010 EMISSIONS WITHOUT PLAN BY POLLUTANT 2150 2500 Mutant . ROC 1750 NOx 1500 ® CO ® PM10 1250 _o 1000 a 750 500 250 0 S.Central-Ventura SE Desert-Im erial S.Coast SE Desert-S. Bern./Mojave N Desert-Coachella My Air Basin-Area Count SOURCE: Dst6d 1991 Air Quality Attainment Plans Page 5-8 - December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan r Chapter Five -Air Quality Figure 5-4 2010 EMISSIONS WITH PLAN BY POLLUTANT 1500 I Pollutant 1250-11 . ROC i NOz 1000 ® CO ® PM10 7501 v j CCS 1 O d_ 500 250 0 ' S.Central-Ventura SE Desert-Imperial S.Coast SE Desert-S,Bern./Mojave SE Desert-Coachella Vly Air Basin-Area Count. SOURCE: District 1991 Air Quality Attainment Plans SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 5-9 Chapter Five -Air Quality 1 FIGURE 5-5 SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN 2010 VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND EMISSIONS TOTAL — 1391 TONS/DAY: ATTAINMENT TARGET — 187 TONS/DAY CONSUMER PRODUCTS (9%) ARCH.COATINGS (4%) TING/SOLVENT USE (22%) PETROLEUM INDUSTRY (7%) OTHER STATIONARY (11%) OFF-ROAD VEHICLES (4%) AUTOMOBILES (22%) UTILITY/MOBILE EQUIP (7%) OCOPA NES/TRAINS/SHIPS (2%) ® STATIONARY/AREA SOURCES OTHER ON-ROAD MOBILE (12%) ! ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES ® NON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES SOURCE: Background Data for Federal Implementation Plan for South Coast Air Basin FIGURE 5-6 SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN 2010 NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS TOTAL = 1102 TONS/DAY: ATTAINMENT TARGET — 399 TONS/DAY HD DIESEL VEHICLES (8%) OTHER ON-ROAD MOBILE (12%) AUTOMOBILES (22%) MOBILE EQUIPMENT (14%) OTHER STATIONARY (10%) UTILITY EQUIPMENT (10%) PLANES/TRAINS/SHIPS (79'e FUEL COMBUSTION (18%) OFF-ROAD VEHICLES (1%) ® STATIONARY AND AREA SOURCES ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES ® NON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES SOURCE: Background Data for Federal Implementation Plan for South Coast Air Basin Page 5-10 ° December 1993 SCAG ° Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan s Chapter Five •Air Quality FIGURE 5-7 VENTURA COUNTY 2005 VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUND EMISSIONS TOTAL — 103 TONS/DAY: ATTAINMENT TARGET — 57 TONS/DAY CONSUMER PRODUCTS (7%) OTHER SOLVENT USE (5%) OTHER SURF.COATING (10%) PETROLEUM INDUSTRY (10%) ARCH.COATINGS (7%) DEGREASING (5%) PESTICIDES (14%) NON-ROAD MOBILE (8%) OTHER STATIONARY (5%) TRUCKS&BUSES (9%) ® STATIONARY/AREA SOURCES ® ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES CARS&MOTORCYCLES (20%) ® NON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES SOURCE: Background Data for Federal Implementation Plan for Ventura County FIGURE 5-8 VENTURA COUNTY 2005 NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS TOTAL = 92 TONS/DAY: ATTAINMENT TARGET = 46 TONS/DAY OTHER STATIONARY (11%) OIL/GAS PRODUCTION (8%) CARS&MOTORCYCLES (20%) ELECTRIC UTILITIES (14%) LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS (6%) OTHER NON-ROAD MOBIL (16°.6) HEAVY DUTY TRUCKS (11%) BOATS (3%) _ SHIPS (12%) ® STATIONARY AND AREA SOURCES ON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES ® NON-ROAD MOBILE SOURCES SOURCE: Background Data for Federal Implementation Plan for Ventura County SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 •Page 5-11 Chapter Five •Air Quality F. AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS ACHIEVED As a result of state and regional emission control programs, peak ozone concentrations, as shown in Figure 5-9, in the SCAG region declined or stayed constant between 1980 and 1990, except in the San Bernardino desert. There, both peak readings and days above the state ozone standard increased slightly during the period as population increased in the eastern portion of the SCAB and in the San Bernardino desert. G. AIR QUALITY STANDARDS AND ATTAINMENT STATUS Air quality planning in the region is directed at meeting ambient air standards set by the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the ARB. Each plan is designed to meet ambient air quality standards by the deadlines specified in the federal Clean Air Act (CAA) and emission reduction targets of the California Clean Air Act (CCAA). These acts base the extent of required emissions reductions and the length of time to attain standards on the severity of a district's pollution. Federal and state ambient air standards are set at levels to protect the health of the most sensitive population groups, particularly the elderly, children and people with respiratory diseases. State standards are more restrictive than federal standards. There are federal and state standards for six pollutants and state standards for four others. Four pollutants, Ozone (03), Carbon Monoxide (CO), Nitrollen Dioxide (NO,) and Particulate Matter Mlo), exceed federal and state standards in one or more districts in the region. The standards for these four pollutants are shown on Table 5-2. TABLE 5.2 AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS CALIFORNIA FEDERAL Air Pollutant Standard Primary Secondary Ozone >0.09 ppm, 1-hr avg >0.12 ppm, 1-hr avg. 0.12 ppm, 1-hr avg. Carbon Monoxide a9.1 ppm, 8-hr. avg. a9.5 ppm, 8-hr. avg. a9.5 ppm, 8-hr. avg. >20 ppm. 1-hr. avg. >35 ppm, 1-hr. avg. >35 ppm, 1-hr, avg. Nitrogen Dioxide >0.25 ppm, 1-hr. avg. >0.053 ppm, annual avg. >0.053 ppm, annual avg. Suspended Particulate >30 ug/m annual geometric mean >150 ug/m , 24-hr avg. >150 ug/m , 24-hr avg.; >50 Mather (PM 10) >50 ug/m', 24-hr. avg. >50 ug/m'annual arithmetic mean ug/m' annual arithmetic mean Note: ppm=parts per million by volume ughrr'=micrograms per cubic meter >=greater than - t =greater than or equal to Source: South Coast Air Quality Management District 1992. Page 5-12 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Five •Air Quality Figure 5-9 PEAK 1 -hr OZONE READINGS for SCAG REGION 0.5 Air Basin•RegioNCo. 0.45 S.Coast S.Centra!•Ventura 0.4-1 SEDAB•Mojave 0.35- SEDAB-Imperial 0.3- - - - SEDAB-CoachellaVly LU SEDAB-LA County 0.25 ........... 0.2 1st Stage \%. 0.15 - 0.1 ------ Federal Standard State Standard 0.05 0- 1981 1983 1985 1987 I 1989, 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 SOURCE: California Air Resources Board Annual Reports SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 •Page 5-13 Chapter Five •Air Quality The attainment status of state and federal air pollution standards and the timeframes for achieving each standard in each planning area are shown on Table 5-3. The federal Clean Air Act (CAA) divides the nation into five categories for ozone attainment planning purposes, with increasingly longer deadlines for bringing the most severely polluted areas into compliance with the federal standard. The South Coast Air Basin is the only area in the nation in the "extreme" category for ozone. In California, the state's Clean Air Act (CCAA) creates four categories of non-attainment based on ozone concentrations. Although the CCAA is more stringent and requires 5 percent annual reductions in ozone precursor emissions, the act does not set attainment deadlines and contains no penalties for failing to meet its requirements. By contrast, the CAA sets attainment deadlines based on the severity of a basin's air pollution and contains sanctions for failure to comply with various requirements of the Act, as spelled out in guidelines issued by EPA. Both Acts specify the type of controls that are mandatory and those that are optional for regions to meet air quality standards. To meet federal requirements, transportation control measures (TCMs) must be quantifiable, enforceable, replicable, accountable, and have backstop or contingency measures in place. TABLE 5-3 FEDERAL AND CALIFORNIA AIR QUALITY ATTAINMENT STATUS BY POLLUTANT AIR BASIN AND COUNTY OZONE CARBON MONOXIDE PM10 S02 I NO2 SULFATES LEAD N2S VISIBILITY Fed. State Fed. I State Fed./state Fed./State I Fed./State State Fed4tate State State #11. A5 A&�:BAStN :...:• ::::::: . T _...... ...::::..: .::::.:;;.::.:..;..• ...:..:. .::...:......::::.. Orange,Los Angeles San Extreme Bernardino,Riverside 2010, Severe Serious NA Serious/NA A NA NA A Unc (SCAQMD) Unc. $:OUI#1.CEfJFRAL AM-ASg1 ........... Ventura(VCAPCD) She Severe A A ANNA A A A A Unc. Unc. SOtftHF.ASFDESERT AIAASfh1;: ... W.Sai Bernardino Desert Severe (MDAQMD) 2007' ,AU Moderate A A NANA A A A A Unc. Unc. Imperial(ICAPCD) Transi- Moderate Unc./A A Moderate/NA A A A A Unc. Unc. tional Coachella Valle/ Severe Under Unc./A A ModerateMA A A A A Unc. Unc. (SCACIMD) 2007' Review Antelope Valley Severe Under (SCAOMD) 2007' Review Unc.lA A aMA A A A A Unc. Unc. E.RnMe Desert Unc./A Under (SCACMl7 Unc./A A AMA A A A A Unc. Unc. D)j Review E.San Bernardino Desert (MDACIMD) Unc./A Moderate Unc./A A AMA A A A A Unc. Unc. 1 Y&v by which federal ozone standard must be met. 2 Area in northwest San Benrardino County designated as norr•attainment hydrogen suffide area 3 Moderate for the Searles Valley area,Attainment for the balance of the basin area. A =Attainment NA =Non Attainment Unc=Unclassified In addition to fixed ozone attainment deadlines of 2005 and 2007 for severe areas and 2010 for extreme areas, the CAA requires TCMs that offset increased emissions from growth in both vehicle trips and miles traveled, and trip reduction programs for employers of 100 or more that increase average vehicle ridership (AVR) by at least 25 percent over existing AVR. The federal Act requires 3 percent annual reductions from 1990 emissions; the CCAA sets 5 percent annual reductions from 1987 emissions as its target. In addition the Page 5-14 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Five •Air Quality CCAA requires the following: reduced population exposure to criteria pollutants; earliest practicable achievement of standards; increase in average commuter ridership of 1.5 persons per vehicle during commute hours by 1999 in severe and extreme non-attainment areas; substantial decrease in growth in passenger vehicle trips and VMT in serious, severe and extreme non-attainments areas; no net increase in mobile source emissions after 1997 in severe and extreme non-attainment areas; cost effectiveness of control measures must be documented; and, public acceptability may be considered as a factor for TCMs. Both federal and state acts require monitoring procedures for compliance and effectiveness. H. AIR QUALITY PLANS The current status of SCAG, air district, ARB and EPA approval and the applicable SIPS for federal air quality conformity purposes are shown in Table 5-4. The table points to the obvious plethora of plans required at both the federal and state levels, within the region's air basins. It addresses only those versions of plans which are currently applicable or have some standing at local, state and federal levels. Under current state law, air quality management or attainment plans must be amended or adopted every three years, with the next plans due by December 31, 1994. The federal CAA requires that specific pollutant attainment plans be adopted and become part of the State Implementation Plan (SIP) on a schedule set forth in the 1990 amendments to the Act. The next federal ozone attainment plan submittals for severe and extreme non-attainment areas are due by November 15, 1994. If EPA partially approves or disapproves a SIP, federal sanctions can be applied within 18 months of their action. EPA can increase new source offset requirements or cause Federal Highway funds to be withheld. Both conditions apply if the SIP deficiencies are not corrected within six months. For example, in the SCAB the sanctions clock is currently running as a result of deficiencies in the carbon monoxide plan submittal. SIPS can be enforced by citizen suits in federal court. If SIP deficiencies are not corrected within 24 months, EPA must write a Federal Implementation Plan (FIP). EPA is currently under court order to prepare FIPs for the South Coast Air Basin and the Ventura County part of the South Central Coast Air Basin. Drafts of the FIPs are scheduled for release by EPA in February 1994 with final plans to be adopted in February 1995. The current FIP process in these two air basins overlaps the adoption process for federal ozone attainment SIPS. EPA has indicated that it will replace control strategies in the draft FIPs with legally enforceable strategies in the adopted SIPS. This is consonant with and EPA FIP goal of minimizing federal intrusion into state and local affairs. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 •Page 5-15 i Chapter Five •Air Quality TABLE 5-4 STATUS OF AIR QUALITY PLANS IN SCAG REGION SCAG District ARB EPA Air Basin/Plan/District [ Adoption Adoption Approval Approval Current :S.0 UTH.COAST AIR BASIN 1979 Air Quality Mgmt. Plan (SCAQMD) 10/25/792 01/26/79 05/10179 01/12/83 AppFcable SIP foIr conformity purposes 1989 Air Quality Mgmt. Plan (SCAQMD) 03/17/892 03/17/89 08/15/89 Under review by EPA as SIP submittal with 1991 AQMP dates Approved by ARB with conditions- 1991 Air Quality Mgmt. Plan (SCAQMD) 06/06/912 07/12/91 10/16/92 -ARB decided not to send to EPA 08/01/91 08/02/91 for SIP amendment as requested by SCAQMD 1992 Federal Attainment Plan for Carbon Under review by EPA as a SIP Monoxide (SCAQMD) 11/051922 11/06/92 12/31/92 submittal--Additional information requested in February 1993 1992 Federal Attainment Plan for Nitrogen 06/06/912 04/03/92 05/15/92 Under review by EPA as a SIP Dioxide (SCAQMD) I I I submittal 1992 Federal Attainment Plan for Particulate 06/06/912 07/12/91 11/15/91 Under review by EPA as a SIP Matter—Mo (SCAQMD) submittal SOUTH:CENTRAL'COAST AIR BASIN 1982 Air Quality Mgmt. Plan or Ventura 03123182 12131/82 07/30/84 Apphcable SIP for conformity County (VCAPCD) purposes 1987 Air Quality Mgmt, Plan (VCAPCD)for 07/26/88 05/12/89 No action by EPA Ventura County 1991 Air Quality Mgmt. Plan Approved With Conditions by for'Ventura County (VCAPCD) 10/08/91 08/13192 ARB only for state purpose .SO!UTHEAST!'.DESERT AIR"BASIN 1979 State Implementation Plan (ARB) Not 11129/79 7/1/81 Applicable SIP for conform... Applicable 02121/79 purposes(conditlonal approval 1991 Air Quality Attainment Plan for Desert Approved by ARB with Portion of San Bernardino County 08/26191 2/18193 conditions for State (SBCAPCD) purposes 1991 Air Quality Attainment Plan for Imperial 04/06/92 2/18/93 Approved by ARB with conditions County (ICAPCD) for State purposes 1990 State Implementation Plan for PM10 in 04/30190 Under review by EPA as a SIP the Coachella Valley (SCAQMD) 12/07/90 11115191 submittal 1991 State Implementation Plan for PMio for the Searles Valley Planning Area 11/25/91 Under review by ARB (SBCAPCD, Kern Co. APCD, Great Basin Unified APCD) 1993 State Implementation Plan for PMio for ' 09/28193 Under review by ARB Imperial County (ICAPCD) 1 SCAG designated as co-lead under federal law,but took no action on Plan. 2 SLAG adopted-TCMs,Land use and energy measures. 3 Ef'A conditionally approved or fully approved all of the 1979 plan,except for the portions of the ozone and Co.plan that pertain to an Inspection and Maintenance program. 4 SC:AG and Air District are reviewing roles in discussions with ARB. Page 5-16 - December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Five •Air Quality I. CURRENT STRATEGY FOR AIR QUALITY IMPLEMENTATION The current strategies for implementing the region's air quality plans are shown in Table 5-5. Ten strategies are detailed which flow from the four air district's 1991 air quality management or attainment plans. They relate either to technological or behavioral changes, although some require a combination of new technological development and behavioral changes that hopefully will induce individuals, businesses and industries to do things differently. Attainment strategies differ, depending on the severity of the district's ozone pollution, the type of control program already in place, and whether the program is also tied to achievement of other subregionally defined objectives. For example, the SCAQMD has an identified strategy for addressing the problem of global warming and tropospheric ozone depletion. This area of concern has not as yet been raised as a strategic concern by other air districts. TABLE 5-5 IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES IN EXISTING AIR QUALITY PLANS SOUTH POLICY COAST VENTURA MOJAVE IMPERIAL ,.STRATEGY 1: STATIONARY SOURCES Reduce emissions from.point and:area sources. 1.1 Fuel Combustion ■ ■ ■ ■ 1.2 Waste Burning ■ ■ ❑ 1.3 Agricultural Practices ■ ■ ■ ■ 1.4 Surface Coating and Solvent Use ■ ■ ■ ■ 1.5 Petroleum and Gas Production and Dispensing ■ ■ ❑ ■ 1.6 Commercial and Industrial Processes ■ ■ O/❑ 1.7 Construction Practices ■ 1.8 Other Sources p/■ ■ p ❑ :STRATEGY 2: ON-ROAD MOBILE Reduce. mfssions from on road mobile sources{e.g.automobiles,trucks and buses). 2.1 Buses ■ ■ 2.2 Trucks ■ ■ 2.3 Design of Vehicles ■ ■ 2.4 Inspection and Maintenance ■ O ❑ 2.5 Operational Procedures ■ ■ 2.6 Aftemative Fuels ■ ■ p 2.7 Automobile Buy-Back ■ STRATEGY 3: OFF-ROAD,MOBIL£ Reduce emissions from;oft-road mobile sources(e.g.ships,planes,trains erdothermisc:sources). 3.1 Marine Vessels ■ ■ 3.2 Aircraft ■ 3.3 Rail ■ ■ 3.4 Construction/Farm Equipment ■ ■ 3.5 Off-Road Motorcycles ■ ■ 3.6 Leaf Blowers ■ ■ SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 5-17 Chapter Five •Air Quality TABLE 5.5 IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES IN EXISTING AIR QUALITY PLANS SOUTH POLICY COAST VENTURA MOJAVE IMPERIAL STRATEGY 4: TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT Reduce vehicle emissions through efficient management of the existing transportation system. 4.1 Traffic Flow(Signal Synchronization and Incident Response) ■ ■ ❑ 4.2 Limiting Types of Vehicles During Peak Traffic Hours ■ ■ p STRATEGY S FACILITIESISYSTEM DEVELOPMENT Create a multi-modal transportation system which results in emissions reductions and facilitates the completion of missing transportation Ilnks. 5.1 High Occupancy Vehicle Facilities ■ ■ ❑ 5.2 Enhanced Transit and Rail Services ■ ■ STRATEGY 6: TRANSPORTATION DEMAND MANAGEMENT= Reduce emissions by reducing Ithe demand for single occupant vehicle trips. 6.1 Alternative Travel Modes ■ ■ ■ D 6.2 Altematve Work Hours/Weeks ■ ■ ■ 6.3 Telecommunications ■ ■ ■ p 6.4 Monetary Incentives and Disincentives O/■ o 6.5 Employer Trip Reduction ■ K p/■ STRATEGY 7, GROWTH MANAGEMENT Reduce emissions:by guiding the iocat on,and timing of development to create a land use patter which can be efficiently served by diverstfied:transportation system and which minimizes vehicle:mifes travelled and.reduces vehicle trips. 7.1 Matching Household Types With Job Opportunities ■ ■ 0 7.2 Phasing of Development ■ ■ 7.3 Location of Development ■ ■ O STRATEGY 8: LAND USE DESIGN ::Radice emissions by encouraging land uses and design practices which facilitate changes in tripmaking behavior and which will lead to a redaction In vehicle trips and vehicle miles traveled. 8.1 Review/Monitoring/Permitting/Analysis ■ o ■ 8.2 Development Standards/Design Criteria ■ ■ 0 STRATEGY 9: GLOBAL WARMINGIOZONE DEPLETION Rechice emissions which deplete tropospheric ozone or contribute to global warming 9.1 Refrigerants ■ 9.2 Waste Disposal ■ 9.3 Industrial/Commercial Processes ■ STRATEGY 10: TOXICS Reduce toxic and hazardous emissions - 10.1 Land Use ■ 10.2 Accidental Releases ■ 10.3 Industrial/Commercial Processes ■ Legend: * = Modifications to Existing Program. 1 = For Ventura County APCD a number of enhancements to 0 = Program(s), No Implementation Commitment(s). rule 210 are proposed as further study measures. ■ = Program(s),With Implementation Commitment(s). 0 = Contingency Measure(s). o = Future Study Measure(s). Page 5-18 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Five •Air Quality Since 1989, the California ARB has adopted new standards that significantly lower emissions from new vehicles, including requirements for a fixed percentage of all new light-duty vehicles sold in California after 1998 to be low- or zero-emission vehicles. In addition, ARB has set standards for "clean" gasoline in future years and for reformulated gasoline to be sold in winter months in carbon monoxide nonattainment areas. All four air districts have adopted some or all of these stationary and area source measures scheduled for implementation in their 1991 plans. An employer rideshare program was adopted by Ventura County in 1989 and one was recently adopted on a trial basis for the Mojave Desert part of the Southeast Desert Air Basin. The SCAQMD has undertaken an intensive effort to develop a market-incentives program to replace AQMP measures and existing rules covering sources that emit more than four tons a year of reactive organic compounds, nitrogen oxides or sulfur oxides. Under this program, known as Regional Clean Air Incentives Market or RECLAIM, sources will be able to reduce emissions by an annual reduction target equivalent in the aggregate to all stationary source measures for these sources in the 1991 AQMP through installing control equipment, shutting down equipment, or buying surplus reduction credits from other sources in the program that have installed or shut down equipment. In July 1992, the SCAQMD Board amended the 1991 AQMP to place 20 stationary source measures in a "contingency" category and to substitute RECLAIM as an AQMP measure. The SCAQMD Board adopted the RECLAIM rules for NOx and SOx sources in October 1993. Market-based TCMs are currently under study and in use. SCAG's Regional Council in early 1993 established a Market Incentives Task Force to develop recommendations concerning possible market based solutions to regional transportation and air quality problems for the RCP. SCAB also established an Advanced Transportation Technologies Task Force. The task force has structured an extensive program to get answers on the future of advanced transportation technologies to help meet the region's mobility, air quality and economic needs. The task force's work is closely coordinated with CALSTART, a consortium developing an electric vehicle industry in the southland, and with Project California, a statewide group of business, industry and government leaders working on stimulating an advanced transportation technologies program in the state. SCAB's 1992 Carbon Monoxide Plan, based on the 1991 AQMP, reconfigured TCMs and included them only as contingency measures that would be available to supplement the other measures in the plan, which included oxygenated fuels, improved certification requirements for new vehicles, motor vehicle buyback program, and low emission new fleet vehicles. The plan found that these other measures would result in attainment of the federal CO standards. TCMs were included as contingency measures that local governments could adopt through ordinances or other enforceable mechanisms. A provision was included for backstop actions by the SCAQMD in the event that these TCMs were needed for CO attainment, but actions by local governments were not sufficient. The CO plan will be reevaluated and revised to reflect new growth and VMT forecasts as part of the work on the 1994 air quality plan. TCMs are still required by both the state and federal Clean Air Acts as part of ozone control strategies in severe and extreme non-attainment areas. The 1991 South Coast AQMP established a Transportation Control Measures Advisory Working Group to address implementation issues and revise the TCMs for the 1994 update of the AQMP. In mid 1993 the working group and subgroups were replaced with a TCM Policy Committee and TCM.Technical Advisory Group. The policy committee will provide input to SCAG's Transportation and ` Communication Committee and the District's On-Road Transportation Committee. The Ventura and Mojave districts are utilizing existing committee structures to evaluate the extent to which TCMs will be included in the forthcoming 1994 plans. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 -Page 5-19 1 1 Chapter Five •Air Quality J. MAJOR AIR QUALITY AND STRATEGIC ISSUES AND RELATED ACTIONS A number of issues regarding air quality and related strategic issues in the region remain unresolved or have emerged as a result of changing conditions or new regulations imposed since the last plan update in each dislxict. Thirty major issues were derived from reviewing current plans; experience reported by each district in implementing the plans; experience by Caltrans, local governments, county transportation commissions, private-sector organizations and others in implementing plan provisions, and consideration of other regionwide concerns identified by SCAG as impacted by air quality planning and implementation. This chapter addresses the seven key issues which flow from four central themes. A number of other air quality issues were discussed in the Regional Comprehensive Plan Discussion Document which pertain to transportation and land use control measures. These and related issues are dealt with in the Regional Mobility chapter. 1. CENTRAL THEME NO. 1 -- PLANNING AND REGULATORY SIMPLIFICATION How does the region make air quality planning and decision making more efficient? a. State and Federal Plan Submittals and Standards Issue: How can the timing of multiple mandated federal and state air quality plan submittals be better coordinated in order to meet existing targets, and what actions can be taken to resolve conflicting federal and state ambient air quality standards? Actlions: • The region's air districts and SCAG should work with ARB and EPA to develop a coordinated game plan for resolving the federal/state plan submission problems and standard differences and in identifying socioeconomic considerations2. Local jurisdictions (cities, counties, county transportation commissions) participation should be sought in the negotiations to resolve conflicting federal and state submittal requirements and ambient air quality standards. First priority should be given to working out a solution within the context of existing state and federal law. If this is not possible, consideration should be given to modifying federal or state law. • The Federal Implementation Plans and State Implementation Plans required air quality management and attainment plans should be closely coordinated. A special summit of federal, state, regional and local policy makers should be convened to assure that plan submittals and standards are agreed to by all parties. 2 Revised to reflect subregional input from SANBAG, North Los Angeles County, CVAG and Westside Cities. Page 5-20 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Five •Air Quality • SCAG should work with other regional agencies having air quality implementation responsibilities to 1) seek legislation which makes funding available in proportion to the mandated requirements placed on local governments to reduce target pollutant emissions; and 2) achieve a coordinated approach to air quality mandates to local government, with the provisions of that approach to be incorporated into the 1994 Air Quality Management Plan updates'. This coordinated approach must identify funding and priority actions to meet the requirements of the Federal Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act and Clean Air Act. In addition to federal Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) and Surface Transportation Program (STP) funds, Caltrans state funds and local transportation funds should be coordinated to provide funding for control strategies. • SCAG should work with regulatory agencies to integrate requirements and establish clear roles and responsibilities for regulatory agencies, and thereby improve local government's ability to first understand its obligations and then to act on them'. b. Streamlining Air District Regulations and Requirements Issue: How can local air districts streamline their rules and regulations, and minimize unnecessary bureaucratic requirements'? Actions: • Air districts should devise means for easing the burden of regulatory compliance on business, industry and local government. Programs like SCAQMD's "business retention" and "small business assistance" programs should be continually monitored and streamlined. The other air districts should consider these types of programs as appropriate. • Air districts should work together to develop more coordinated approaches, including parallel rules and regulations. This can help to minimize the adverse impacts on businesses, industries and local governments. It can also work toward leveling the playing field throughout the SCAG region. • The North Los Angeles County subregion intends to continue to pursue investigation of whether and how to change the existing air quality jurisdictional arrangement for North Los Angeles County'. C ' Action recommended by South Bay subregion. ' Action recommended by South Bay subregion. " Based on recommendation of the SANBAG subregion and supported by recommendations of the Realtor's Committee on the Air Quality Management Plan. ` Action recommended by North Los Angeles County Subregion. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 •Page 5-21 Chapter Five •Air Quality C. Regulation and Alternatives Issue: What mix of regulation, market incentives and market/service delivery options should be advocated to implement TCMs in the South Coast Air Basin? Actions: • Determine specific programs and associated actions (e.g., indirect source rules, enhanced use of telecommunications, provision of community-based shuttle services, provision of demand management based programs, or VMT/emission fees) so that options can be assessed. • Identify specific implementation conditions for each of the three options (e.g., funding, implementation processes, potential impacts). • Balance strict legal enforceability requirements with other implementation factors. • Continue to assess the relative advantages and disadvantages of regulatory, market incentive and market/service delivery approaches. 2. CENTRAL THEME NO. 2 -- REGIONAL AIR QUALITY/ECONOMIC BALANCE How does the region balance improving air quality with the need to meet the challenge of increased population and employment growth and a changing economic base? a_ Balancing Air Quality and the Economy Issue: To what extent and by what means can the impacts of air quality standards be achieved without adversely affecting local and regional economic conditions'? Actions: • The region's air districts should pursue a hybrid approach to balancing air quality and the economy. This approach should-seek an effective balance between command and control and market strategies. • In the process of seeking to balance air quality and the economy, air districts are encouraged to take the following initial steps: Revised to reflect subregional input from SANBAG. North Los Angeles County and Westside Cities. Page 5-22 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan V Chapter Five •Air Quality • Maintain current regulations and implement new control measures in order to comply with current mandates, while continuing to devise methods of easing the burden of compliance by making assistance available to businesses and streamlining procedures, sharing such methods among districts. • Continue to explore the positive and negative impacts of air quality programs on the economy, documenting and sharing the results of that effort among districts in the region. • Devise a detailed action plan, based on existing reports, which implements workable approaches in the current air quality plan and provides the basis for effective plan amendments. • Continue to develop and refine proposed market incentive techniques, such as parking management, price incentives, vehicle registration fees to benefit air quality, and implementation prototypes for congestion and emission fees$. • Continue to promote and support the creation of new industries and products required to achieve cleaner air. Examples of this ongoing effort by SCAQMD's Technology Advancement Office include: "Living Machine" biofilter unit; low pollution hot water heater; near-zero emission fuel cell battery hybrid transit bus; and, methanol and natural gas heavy duty construction vehicles. r G Continue efforts emanating from the Economic chapter of the RCP, in consultation with business and industry groups like: development of industrial clusters in the SCAG region, like the apparel, entertainment and the arts, tourism, environmental protection technology, foreign trade and advanced transportation technologies industries; facilitate the creation of an electric vehicle industry (CALSTART) and new advanced transportation systems and technology industries (Project California); and development of public-private joint ventures, like a Regional Economic Strategies Consortium and "Project Southern California:" linking employment needs with transportation requirements in the SCAG Region". r • Support actions to facilitate the locating of "clean industries" in the region, like the efforts of SCAQMD to identify existing clean industries, better understand the economic benefits of clean industries, and the development of incentives to facilitate the location of clean industries in the region. • SCAG and the air districts should involve private sector interests in all phases of the decision making process. Without business and industry involvement, no form of regulation or economic development will provide the benefits intendedlo • Cal EPA, ARB and EPA should continue to have early involvement in the air quality plan development process to enable them to better understand and respond to economic considerations" ° Revised to reflect recommendation of SCAG's Energy and Environment Committee. ° Revised to reflect recommendations of SCAG's Energy and Environment Committee. 10 Action recommended by Realtor's Committee on the Air Quality Management Plan. " Acton recommended by the City of Los Angeles subregion. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 •Page 5-23 Chapter Five •Air Quality • SCAG and the regions air districts should continue to maintain Memoranda of Understanding detailing cooperative planning relationships and requiring that regional growth forecasts be used in the development of all air district plans12. • The region should consider the implementation of certain transportation control measures at the regional level to minimize unequal economic impacts on business between local jurisdictions and impacts on local governments13 • Air districts in their regulatory development process should consider strategies that would not restrict economic growth and local control14 • SCAG and air districts should document and disseminate case studies where actions taken for air quality purposes are also beneficial for economic development's b_ Air Quality, Land Use, Transportation and Economic Relationships IssUe: How can air quality considerations be more consistently taken into account in land use, transportation and economic decisions? Actions: • Plans at all levels of government (regional, air basin, county, subregional and local) should consider air quality, land use, transportation and economic relationships. This suggests that land use, transportation, and air quality policies are, at the very least, not in conflict. However, creating consistent policies is rarely the same thing as providing synergistic, mutually supportive direction in a policy document. • SCAG and the air districts should develop guidance to local governments on designing land use, transportation and economic development patterns to consider air quality16 12 Supportive of actions by Westside Cities subregion. "Action recommended by the City of Los Angeles subregion. " Based on actions recommended by the San Gabriel Valley subregion. 18 Action recommended by SANBAG subregion. '•Action recommended by SANBAG subregion. Page 5-24 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Five •Air Quality 3. CENTRAL THEME NO. 3 -- PUBLIC-PRIVATE SECTOR PARTNERSHIPS How can publiclprivate sector partnerships meet the challenges of improving air quality, enhancing mobility, conserving energy, and providing for a dynamic healthy economy? a. Public/Private Partnerships Issue: How can SCAG and the region's air districts encourage existing and stimulate additional public/private partnership involvement in implementing air plans, improving air quality, and increasing the public's knowledge of air quality problems and potential solutions? Actions: • SCAG and the region's air districts should continue to facilitate the development of public/private partnerships to help implement air quality plans, thereby improving air quality. Facilitation can include assistance in funding, technical assistance in partnership formation, or general encouragement of these types of efforts. Each air district is encouraged to develop its own unique approaches to working with the diverse special interests in their area. The following options only illustrate the types of approaches that have been developed in the different parts of the region: • Public/Private Sector Task Force (Example -- Southeast Los Angeles County Air Quality Consortium Public/Private Sector Task Force). • Private Sector Technical Information Centers (Example -- Southern California Edison's Customer r• Technology Application Center in Irwindale). 4 • Non-Profit Consortia (Example -- CALSTART, a public-private partnership of utility, industry, government, labor and environmental organizations, with a mission of helping to establish an advanced transportation industry in California by producing an electric vehicle). • SCAG Advisory Groups (Example -- Regional Advisory Council, a public/private body which addresses issues of regional concern and provides guidance to SCAG on these matters). o Environmental Consortia (Example -- Think Earth environmental consortium, developing an integrated environmental curriculum for primary grades, with the assistance of VCAPCD). • Statewide Consortia (Example -- Project California, an effort of business, industry, university and government leaders, under the auspicious of the California Council on Science and Technology, to promote advanced transportation technological solutions to air quality, energy, transportation, growth and economic problems of the state). SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 •Page 5-25 Chapter Five Air Quality All • Joint Ventures (Example -- CSCAPE, an effort by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Regional Partnership to help clean Southern California's air and protect its economy). • Special Commissions on Major Air Quality Concerns (Example -- Air Quality and the Economy Commission, set up by SCAQMD to look at the impact of air quality regulations on the economy). • Chamber of Commerce Committees (Example -- Los Angeles Chamber Special Committee on Air Quality, set up to provide guidance on air quality issues like inspection and maintenance and the Federal Implementation Plan). • Advisory Committees (Example -- Environmental Advisory Committee, set up by SCAQMD to bring environmental groups and interests together to provide guidance to decision making). • Inter-disciplinary Groups (Example -- Sequoia Group, involving a small number of top management representatives from businesses, universities, environmental and government organizations that crafted a broad policy approach to addressing air quality, economic and transportation issues). • Private sector participants should become more involved in the Regional Advisory Council (RAC) to help assure business, industry and environmental concerns are reflected in the air quality planning and regulatory process. 4. CENTRAL THEME NO. 4 -- REDUCING EXPOSURE TO POLLUTION Now can the problem of interbasin and intrabasin pollutant transport be dealt with more efficiently and fairly, thus reducing exposure to pollution for all groups? a. Coordination to Deall With Interbasin and Intrabasin Pollutant Transport Issue: How can the complex problems of interbasin and intrabasin pollutant transport be better understood and dealt with by all affected parties"? Actions: • Local air districts should request monitoring and modeling assistance from ARB to better define the source and amount of transported pollution and the meteorological conditions which affect transport in order to refine control strategies in both source and receptor areas. • Local air districts, SCAG and ARB should establish technical, and if necessary, policy body coordination mechanisms to facilitate defining the source and amount of transported pollutants, and to arrive at mutually responsive control strategies. " Revised to reflect subregional input from SANBAG,CVAG,IVAG,North Los Angeles County,and similar recommendations by the County of San Bernardino and the Mojave Desert Air Quality Management District. Page 5-26 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Five •Air Quality • Air districts wherein significant intrabasin pollutant transport controversies exist, should work - cooperatively with SCAG, subregions and local governments to develop a clearer understanding of emissions transport and control strategies. • EPA and ARB should work cooperatively to assess the pollutant transport impact on Imperial County from Mexico and help ICAPCD and Mexican air pollution officials develop effective control strategies. b. On-Road Mobile Source Emissions Budgets Issue: How should air quality attainment plans (which need to be approved by EPA) best provide for on-road mobile source emissions budgets which the Regional Transportation Plan must not exceed as a part of the allowable emissions within a basin in order for a positive conformity determination to be made? Actions: • Since it is not known what the allowable emissions will be and the only approved (or partially approved) State Implementation Plans were prepared over ten years ago, SCAG and the air districts, in consultation with local governments and county transportation commissions, need to cooperatively develop allowable on-road mobile source emissions budgets for air basins. • Planning efforts by SCAG and the air districts on the 1994 air plans need to address the dilemma of how to proceed with transportation control measures, market based control strategies and the impact of technological controls, in the context of developing agreed upon allowable on-road mobile source emissions budgets. In the South Coast Air Basin the implications of backstop rules need to be addressed K within this context. a � SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 •Page 5-27 C h E p 2 s 7 9 HOUSING • Introduction • Regional Housing Goals • Needs, Strategies and Recommendations A. INTRODUCTION Southern Californians live in a variety of communities. Each community has a separate history, development pattern and vision of future growth. They also offer a distinct set and mix of housing opportunities that evolve and change in response to broad economic and demographic changes. Economic conditions provoke changes in migration, immigration, householder growth, income level, and ownership rate. Demographic changes affect population growth, age-related housing demands, average household size, household composition, and rates at which adults will enter the market. A changing ethnic and racial mix of households underlies these shifting demands. Balancing the demands of growth and change on the existing built and natural environments presents complex public policy choices and trade-offs for local governments including those governments working cooperatively on mutual problems such as housing Southern Californians. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-1 Chapter Six • Housing 1 . THE INTENSIFYING CRISIS IN HOUSING Many Southern Californians are facing dismal housing choices 'because people are paying a higher proportion of income for shelter. The incidence of families and individuals paying more than one-third of income for shelter increased from one-in-four in 1980 to one-in-three in 1990. To keep housing costs down, many large renter households and immigrants break prevailing American occupancy standards and cram into units. Where in the past this was limited to run-down urban core areas, it has now spread to smaller cities and inland areas. The problem is the stock of affordable housing has not kept up with population growth and the needs of the work: force. Year after year, the affordable housing deficit grows, the economic competitiveness of the region suffers, and environmental problems increase as the search for lower-cost homes sends commuters deeper into sensitive geographic territory on the urban edge of the region. The onset of a deep and lingering recession in 1990 has resulted in a cascade of values and an increase in misery. Prices are still too high and the dimensions of the crisis have broadened to include households with above moderate incomes as well as the poor„ A look back is helpful to track the crisis and plot a course of future action. Households with Any Housing Problem, 1990 Southern California Large related renter and elderly renter households have the highest incidence of housing problems such as occuping units with physical defects,living m overcrowded housing or paying more than 30% of income for housing. Almost half of all households have serious housing problems. Large Related Renters Elderly Renters-E] Small Related Renters With a Housing Problem No Housing Problem All Other Renters _ Non-Elderly Owners Elderly Owners 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 sour«:1990 Ca and OW 1DO&Set an lbom*n&) Fgure 6-1 Page, 6-2 0 December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan a Chapter Six • Housing a. Before the Recession, a review of the 1990 census: • About 2.3 million households—one of every two households in Southern California—had a housing- related problem such as living in an overcrowded unit, occupying a substandard unit, or paying more than 30 percent of income for housing (see Figure 6-1). • At 54 percent, the home-ownership level was only slightly above the level of households with housing problems. Southland ownership achievement was also 10 percentage points below the national average (64 percent). • Home prices and rents soared above increases in consumer income, while the magnitude of the problem of homelessness reached a level not seen since the 1930s. • Housing costs in Southern California were far above state and national levels and were in excess of housing costs in neighboring states competing for economic growth such as Arizona and Nevada. • Sharp differences in housing costs between metropolitan areas and central cities and suburbs led to the continued concentration and isolation of poor households in inner cities. t • While the region is home to 6 percent of the nation's population, it houses 20 percent of all foreign-born residents living in the U.S. Many do not accept the prevailing American standards for overcrowding and cram into units to save money because shelter expenses are at such a high price. • While lesser cost inland areas had 15 percent of all housing in the region in 1980, they accounted for 54 percent of all housing growth, continuing a pattern of urban development with serious environmental consequences. In 1990, these areas had 19 percent of all housing in the region. b. During the Recession, 1990 to 1993 • Population growth has grown much faster than housing production. Between 1990 and 1992, almost 1 million people were added to the region, while less than 200,000 units were built. In 1993, less than 40,000 new building permits will be issued, while another 250,000 people will be added, primarily through births and immigration from abroad. • More than 500,000 jobs have been lost, primarily high-paying jobs in defense-related industries and construction. Unemployment is at record-high levels and the economic forecast sees a significant proportion of new jobs in low-wage occupations. • Almost all communities in the Southland experienced a decline in home values (see Figure 6-2) and rents and an increase in vacancies. But still, home costs are among the highest in the nation. • While land cost as a component of total housing costs in 1992 was about 20-to-25 percent in the nation, _ it was about 35 percent in affluent areas and about 20 percent in distressed areas of the Southland. High land costs are a distinguishing feature of high housing costs in Southern California. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-3 Chapter Six • Housing MED AN VALUE PER SQUARE FOOT OF RESALE HOMES Between July 1990 and July 1993, all counties suffered a drop in median price per square foot of resale homes as the demand four homes fell across the region due to the recession. The hardest hit areas were Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Nearly 94% of all identifiable communities in Southern California experienced a loss in value, with expensive areas seeing the biggest decline. OC -12.4% LA -16.9% SB -2.4% RIV -12.9% VEN -17.4% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% Percent Sartre:Datayukk Infamatiau Syate 10$93 Figure 6-2 By 2010, the population in the region is expected to be 20.5 million or 6 million more than it was in 1990 (see Figure 6-3). While 18 percent of the region's population live in the inland empire, it will account for nearly 40 percent of the growth. Increasingly, in the years ahead, population and jobs will migrate to inland areas, drawn by housing, space and cost considerations. = About:2 million more units than exist today will be needed during the next 20 years. The housing demand resulting from this growth, plus the underlying socioeconomic and cultural shifts, will be substantial. If housing construction lags behind demand, the region may face an increase in illegal or "shadow-market units", a drop in vacancy rates to much lower levels, an increase in household size as adults delay entry into the market, an increase in overcrowding, and a bidding up of lower-cost units into higher-cost categories. Page 6-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional.Comprehensive Plan T i Chapter Six • Housing Population and Housing Unit Trends and Projections Constraints on housing construction plus changing socioeconomic and cultural demographics may not result in an increase in household formation levels. This may result in a lower volume of future housing needed as more households double up young adults slow their entry into the market and the average persons per household level stays fiigh. 25 Millions 20.5 Million 20 14.6 Million 15 10 7.2 N Ilion 5.3 Million 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Population ---- Housing Units SCAG Region Source:U.S.Census and SCAG Modified Forecast Fgure 6-3 2. A CONSENSUS FOR ADEQUATE AND AFFORDABLE HOUSING A fundamental question is how to brine housing costs and decent shelter within the reach of more households as the region develops into the next century. State Housing Element Law' mandates that "... each local - government has the responsibility to consider economic, environmental, and fiscal factors, and community goals set forth in the general plan and to cooperate with other local governments and the state in addressing regional housing needs." A consensus is needed on future subregional goals and strategies that are locally specific and realistic so that the housing situation of all Southern Californians can be materially improved at the same time that additional growth occurs. A fair and balanced share of growth is the starting point for achieving a consensus on where, how much and for whom to build housing. Existing housing cost, affordability, quality, and diversity needs 1Cal.Gov't Code 165582(e). SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-5 Chapter Six • Housing must also be addressed in the context of improving the availability of housing in proximity to jobs, and reducing environmental impacts. Everyone's quality of life is influenced by the high cost and lack of affordable housing. A major concern is how to transform the built environment into more balanced communities that offer a mix of housing opportunities for both the rich and the poor, elderly and non-elderly and for people of different cultural, racial, and ethnic backgrounds. B. REGIONAL HOUSING GOALS The Housing chapter goal' is focused on providing a planning framework for cities, counties, and subregions so that they can fashion housing strategies that are responsive to regional market needs related to growth and change during the next two decades. It is intended to be flexible„ broad in scope, and a tool in relating housing concerns to a host of other issues identified in the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP). The goals of the Housing chapter are consistent with the goals of the RCP—a rising standard of living, a healthy and environmentally sound quality of life, and achievement of equity. The goals of this chapter are the following: • Decent and affordable housing choices for all people. • Adequate supply and availability of housing. • Housing stock maintenance and preservation. • Promote a mix of housing opportunities regionwide. These goals are a product of subregional input, and comment as well as feedback on housing issues presented during; one or more study sessions on "Housing Southern Californians," which is the working title of the Draft Regional Housing Element dated April, 1993. These study sessions were presented through the Regional Housing Needs Assessment Subcommittee of the Community Economic and Human Development (CEHD) Policy Committee of the SCAG Regional Council. Starting in May 20, 1993, seven sessions have been convened.' 2See subregional input from Arroyo Verdugo, City of Los Angeles,San Gabriel Valley,SELAC,South Bay Cities,WRCOG, Westside Cities, and VCOG. 31n addition, the following background materials for subregions,local governments and the public were prepared for this chapter. The include the following: • Preliminary RHNA, Dated June, 1992 • RHNA Appeals Procedures,dated September, 1992 • Census of Housing Profiles and Maps for Southern California and Six County Area • Housina Market Trends and_Future Needs by Dowell Myers PhD,dated January, 1993 la guide to the RHNA and the implications of the SCAG Modified Forecast dated November, 1992). • Regional Housing Needs Assessment(RHNA) Sub Committee study sessions on RCP related housing issues (8 sessions since April, 1993) • DRAFT Regional Housing Element, dated April, 1993 Page 6-6 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Six • Housing The Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) is the major tool for coordinating local housing development strategies in Southern California. A regional framework is needed to help achieve subregional consensus on what constitutes a local housing strategy that is responsive to market area needs and state mandates. RHNA policies are the backbone of the future strategy to achieve housing related goals and integrate housing issues with other chapters of the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP). Subregional input was focused on improving the RHNA distribution of need and process for complying with State Housing Law. They contributed the following policy objectives: • Transfers of needs and resources.` s • Sub-allocations.' • Mediation and dispute resolution. • Sub-area housing strategies. • Limit state role.' • Proposals to reform Housing Element Law. • Consensus housing, population and employment forecasts C. NEEDS AND STRATEGIES The SCAG region is faced with a declining housing market, as indicated in the section on the intensifying housing crisis. Section B sets forth goals to be accomplished in the SCAG region. This section identifies strategies that correspond with the aforementioned goals. The following strategies serve as actions to pursue in reaching regional and subregional solutions. Note: The identified strategies are not all inclusive and does not preclude other actions and/or programs that assist in reaching the stated goals. Also included are guiding principles that are used in carrying out the strategies. The guiding principles underlie the basis for a workable regional solution. They are the foundation for a regional housing strategy and a blueprint for addressing the strategic issues facing local governments in Southern California and are as follows: • Advisory on Homeless Issues,by Tierra Concepts, Dated April, 1993 • The Homeless in Southern California: A examination of 1990 Census data,dated April 1992. • RCP Discussion Document, Housing Chapter, dated July, 1993 • Overcrowding in Southern California, work in progress,excerpts issued in August, 1993 • Subregional Housing Market Profiles(14 in all)published in September, 1993 • Redevelopment and Affordable Housing Resources,dated October, 1993 • Regional Housing Affordability Needs,An Analysis of Comprehensive Housing Affordability Data prepared by HUD,dated October, 1993 • Finalized DRAFT Consensus Housing, Population and Employment forecasts,dated November, 1993. 4South Bay Cities subregion recommended that cities also receive credit for illegal units toward their fair share goal 5SELAC subregion recommended that facilitating transfer of housing funds and credits between jurisdictions in meeting affordable housing targets be part of a subregional housing approach regarding overcrowding and impaction of lower income households 6Many subregions expressed the need for allocations at the subregional level. 'Many subregions recommended the state should have a limited role in Housing element review. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-7 Chapter Six • Housing • Financing and Incentives—Substantial funding incentives, and financing should be sufficiently high to encourage and enable a local commitment to meet fair share needs for residents and newcomers. • Fair Share—All communities, counties, and subregions share in the responsibility to make equitable and substantial commitments to providing adequate and affordable housing. • Balanced Growth—Flexible growth shares are needed to support employment and residential growth. New local housing opportunities should match the wages, salaries, or budgets of new employees and other residents; provide a mix of affordable building-type options that support social diversity goals, and be responsive to job-based housing needs emerging in neighboring areas as well as in the locality. • Comprehensive Planning—The pattern of housing location should support regional goals in all planning areas, provide for a more compact and balanced urban form and preserve the natural environment. • Local Control—Local governments should participate in the housing allocation process and retain the authority for site and development approval. • Subregional Role—Regional allocations should reflect an interactive process allowing for a maximum of local input, through subregional associations of local governments in the development of balanced growth and fair share housing; need assignments or transfers. • Consensus and Commitment—The result of the process should be clear to the public and development community so that housing costs can be held down, affordability improved, and a wide mix of housing choices provided to meet existing and future needs. 1 . (goal: Decent and affordable housing choices for all. Strategy 1: Housing choices in line with incomes of work force. Job growth and an increase: in per capita income will be critical factors in restoring consumer confidence and spurring housing demand, construction lending, and economic recovery (see The Economy chapter)°. Special attention needs to be given to education and training to ensure the work force can access better paying jobs and afford better housing. .A balance of affordable housing opportunities given the expected wages and salaries of tomorrow's jobs will challenge every area of Southern California (see Figure 6-4). Significant housing cost and availability differentials among subregions encourage workers to move out of local markets and commute in from other areas along with a desire to isolate themselves from urban social problems. Continued unbalanced growth will contribute to mobility, congestion, and air quality problems, incre-wed fuel consumption and energy use. Many employers are leaving and many employees refuse transfers to the region due, in part, to high housing costs and stressful commutes. The challenge of the next two 8Subregional input: VCOG 9see The Economy, Chapter 2,for a discussion of strategies to increase per capita income. Pager 6-8 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan / 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 , 1 :: ��y p�Vt r}fit\i����\�\\\ F �\�\`(•\ \\\\\ . •\4 � 1 \ ?avcT `+:T�••j�:a \w\.♦� ��.`\.�4.�... v v v ma vic'a a{M:J:;;!4:;.}:;!:� .<Z.;>.;:� ..v\wiT:.v.:y\..,.i: .�.t•a\\\\\\.\\'(,\eta\,t� \ ,,,��.....TTTTT��.�. h ` 1 • 11 11 1 .11 11 / ii I F - �: 1 1 ' f 1 /1 / • / .1 11 1 1 '1 1 1 1 1 1 r - y fi 1 I i Y B F l Chapter Six • Housing Strategy 2: Meeting future age-related housing demand. In the 198Os, the region experienced increases in population, which averaged 300,000 people per year while the number of new residential permits issued for housing averaged 97,000 units per year. These permits resulted in an average of 87,000 new units added during this period. Please note that permit levels exceeded housing units because not all permits are used and there are adjustments to the housing stock such as replacement units, second homes, vacancies, conversions, and illegal units. To meet the forecasted demands for housing by 2010, the region has to generate 120,000 permits in order to produce the over 100,000 units needed on average. Average household size also affects construction activity and need. When average household size in the region is small more housing is needed than when it is large. For instance, 1 million added population housed with three; people per household would occupy 333,000 housing units. However, at 2.5 people per household about 400,000 units or 20 percent more are needed. Households consist of families and individuals occupying units. Projections of household formation (headship) rates by age, ethnicity, and tenure and the resulting estimate of household size are derived from SCAG population projections. The key linkages between population and households are age-related housing demands and underlying shifts in the ethnic and racial make-up of the population. Adults may delay entry into the market for several reasons including housing availability, cost, and affordability. Matching housing opportunities with the budget and household size needs of tomorrow's population will be a major challenge in the years ahead. Affordability refers to the spectrum of housing supply that is in line and in balance with the range of income levels of owners and renters expected to reside in the market area. Construction need by income group and tenure is provided in the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA). The 1988 RHNA identified 900,000 lower- income households paying more than 30 percent of income for housing while the 1990 Census identified 1.2 million. Both the 1988 RHNA and the 1990 Census identified almost 40% of all households as lower income, putting future housing opportunities for this group at 800,00 units between 1990-2010 or an average of 40,000 per year. Constraints on housing construction may not permit the levels of development projected on the basis of need. A number of factors may interfere with construction activity such as the lack of job growth, vacant land supply, capital availability, consumer affordability and political sentiment toward growth restrictions in built- up areas. Time constraints are also important since 100,000 units are needed a year between 1990 and 2010, yet, less than 40,000 permits have been issued in the last few years. Permits are a leading indicator of future construction activity. If construction activity falls below projected levels, as has been the case in the first few years of the 199Os, and if population growth remains as projected, a number of adjustments in the housing market will occur. These adjustments include,: vacancies below optimum levels, depressed replacement rates as less recycling occurs, more overcrowding and reduced household formation rates than what is currently expected (see Figure 6-5). Lack of housing availability will have the most impact on "baby boomers" born from 1945 to 1964. These households will have a major influence on growing housing requirements as they move into middle age where Page 6-10 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Six • Housing POPULATION & HOUSING UNIT TRENDS, 1980-1993 (Annual Change, in Thousands) The region is starting the 199N with a much higher housing deficit than it did in the last decade. This brings into question whether a late decade boom of sufficient magnitude can be generated to fully meet housing demands related to steady population growth. 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 SO- 0- 81,82 83,84 85-86 87-88 89-90 91-92 80-81 82-83 84-85 86-87 88.89 90-91 92-93 POpnlation HOW&Mg Unite SCAG REGION SOURCE: DOF 8-16-93 Figure 6-5 incomes are highest and move up demand greatest. Parents of"baby boomers" will pass into retirement years. They have different housing demands and represent another growing segment of households (see Figures 6-6, 6-7, and 6-8). The increased life span of the elderly will also open up a whole new market for a spectrum of housing services to meet the dependency needs of those 75 years and up. However, the rate of increase in young households age 15-34 will slow down and lessen rental housing demand. The rapidly growing number of children will also have a significant impact as the general population matures. This increase is due to baby boomers reaching parenthood and due to rapid immigration of young adults of parent age. They are a significant share of the average household size in the region. Overall, total households will increase 40 percent over the forecast period (to 2010). Of the three age groups mentioned above, baby boomers and the elderly will grow the most, during the next two decades. But younger households in the 15-24 age group will be a significant force in the market place beginning in the 2000-2010 period. This younger group will be much more ethnically diverse than in the past. The rise in younger households will occur at the same time that a large segment of the "baby boomers" will 4 reach their pre-retirement years (age 55-64) when households "cash out" of their single family homes and SCAG 0 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-11 Chapter Six • Housing Households By Age Bab boomers born from 1945 to 1964 will advance into the 35-54 ages by the Year 2000. These middle ages are where incomes and move up housings demand are greatest. The ratio of children to adults will also increase as they raise families. Parents of baby boomers will enter retirement ages in large numbers and they carry different housing demands. ([n Thousands) 1600 1400 1200 1000 ;•.;::; ::. .. 800 :><>'.. >::; : g: .0" :.. ?: 600 '`.'. � 400 :•.'..: �;` ::::;;; IW- 200 0 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 1 ED 1990 ® 2000 Source:SCAO Modified For*=and 1990 Cw= 3-25-93 F;gure 6-6 begin, to consider new housing and location options. Reconnmen&dons • Regional housing allocations should reflect an interactive process allowing a maximum of local input Through subregional organizations so that housing assignments are credible and realistic. • ]Neighborhood or-community based housing advisory councils can help local governments adopt plans policies and ordinances that accommodate enough housing, settle infrastructure issues and environmental concerns during the local housing element update process and before builders submit development proposals. Page 6-12 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Six • Housing Household Growth By Age Will baby boomers and their older parents be able to sell their existing homes to younger house- holds at prices they need to trade up and improve their housing situation? Will younger house- holds be able to afford tomorrow's housing or will they continue to face low ownership achievement, live in crowded units and pay excessive amounts for shelter? 60 (In Percent) 50 50 49 40 `>`> 46 30 35ti `<< 20 10 <` OE 0 w:> 3 -3 -10 <? >< -11 -20 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ 1990-2000 0 2000-2010 Source:SLAG Modified Forecast and 1990 Cmmn 3.25-3 Fgure 6-7 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-13 Chapter Six • Housing - Distribution of Householders by Race/Ethnic Origin 1990, 2000 and 2010 The ethnic shift underlying future growth and�population aging shows a drop in older non-hispanic white. households and a substantial increase in younger minority households with different housing demands. 100 22.7% 29.2% 33.8% so \V\4 ::O0 ":`r^ ;j�`}i:Y}�\V\\`V\. vV. :Ynti•}`vim ♦-.- ?y iY � :hvv p ♦ v 40 ��yy�c •� ��! ♦� v V\:V :!f!:::::::`:::.. ,` � `:`\\� :•`•:: }iii:.. •......:.:.:.. \.� ti.v: %.. ........... ........... '<t?:Y�LY`vv v:\ti•v'YY:::itiiiYv':: ''•\ �;;M v ,+\ v♦N.S:.i• ii:Y(.Yti'..:n}}}v- 4\�. i}}.A �• \::::^�}:ti:\X�.v��+\}ti}t•..'•. �VV+ :}v\•j:i:Y?:ii:.?�:,V{::iii Va\A\v\v.� \\. ;\ :\\ v\ti v•,`::\v:\\;.;\';;4i r}v .. .�,,, ,v:\ Vaaxv;tiv+M+ i2\Yvvii.`v i:.:.:i...:i::?ti•:� .................. \...:\..,,....\ •:;-�\-:x..a: :\\.\Y+N}vii}}}i:v:: 0 L ................. :.................... 1990 2000 2010 ❑ Hispanic ® NH Asian&Other NH Blade NH White Soume:SCAG Modified Fotecm Figure 6-8 Page 6-14 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Six • Housing HOUSEHOLDS MAKING EXCESSIVE PAYMENTS FOR HOUSING The proportion of renters with a payment burden is much higher than it is for owners. Owners Renters •:• :};va;.}}}a}}? ?;\??}}.... 1MM .2 ?v\?L 5 .:ti:., VEN- TV ti +J' w:., av:n �• `:\\:.::.rav\t 2 iti}.t.t... -}}4;n?;:.?:vi:•-::is i:::na;^ti:tii?'-.'.;.::. i•�.t..: 23 OR- SB- .39 LA- ............:?: }} Rey♦ ................................... , .: ??? ii ;: ?!}: }i?i}M W :-i iJiJi:?:v•i•ii�:j:'::i 39 :LA SCAG vitiiiiiTii?:i:$\ii;Ji:t:i'v'wp: ii\�i•:'L�\i?v ivsaA.va-aa 'a }` SCAG Il� .................. •21 .4tt :37 ............................... ............................ OR........................ , ::.}:.:.:.:.::. a a-..;.:.:. tar.: MT YEN 36 0 5 10 15 20 25 3,0-3'5'40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Percent of Owners Percent of Renters Note: Excessive payment is defined as households paying 35% or more of income toward housing. Source: 1990 Census, Stf 3 Figure 6-9 Strategy 3: Address the need for affordable housing. Rising housing costs are contributing to excessive payments among renters (see Figure 6-9), a marked increase in overcrowding (see Figure 6-10), lower home ownership achievement among minority and young households, and a rise in homeless people. Cost-reduction strategies and the timely and effective use of existing resources such as redevelopment housing funds and other state and federal resources are needed. According to the 1990 Census, the most widespread problem in Southern California was housing affordability and the hardest hit segments of the population were large related renters and elderly renters. Eight-five percent of all households making excessive payments for-shelter were non-elderly households (primarily renters). The incidence of housing affordability problems among lower and higher income households increased from one-in-four households in 1980 to almost one-in-three households in 1990. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-15 i 1 Chapter Six • Housing Overcrowding was primarily a response to high housing costs, changing household composition, high housing quality standards and the influx of immigrants. Among overcrowded households the majority were severely crowded. Severely crowded units (more than 1.5 persons per room) rose from 202,210 in 1980 to 485,653 in 1990, a 140 percent increase. The fastest growing incidence of severe crowding is in suburban area counties outside of major metro areas and inner cities." Moderate and Severe Overcrowding- By Tenure (SCAG Region) One in five renters live in crowded units in the region with even higher rates in in Imperial and Los Angeles Counties. There has been a marked increase in crowding since 1980, e4ecially severe crowding among renters. Change im MOD. SEV. Owners : :» 15 41 IMP 37 130 LA ;, 49 138 SCAG Region 76 183 SB 98 165 RN 47 102 �N 84 199 OR Renters 55 72 IMP 46 128 LA 61 141 SCAG Region 92 211 OR 53 104 VEN 135 241 RN 171 308 S13 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Percent of Households with A Crowding Problem Source: 19W Census El Moderate 1.01-1.50 . Severe 1.51+ Figure 6-10 Urban core and edge areas of the region had high concentrations of renters that were cost burdened and households that were overcrowded (see Figures 6-11 and 12). The rise in excessive payments for housing and severe crowding were accompanied by an enormous increase in housing prices in Southern California during the 1980s. Both values and rents increased far above state and national medians and much faster than 11SELAC subregion suggest that a cooperative program to address this issue to include considerations such as local ordinance development and code enforcement for public health and safety,and adequately funded programs to increase housing supply, and influence immigration policy to reduce pressure on the available housing supply. Page 6-16 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan a =@ U) � LU ?cc coo W � O WO cc Q z cc a O m C ¢ E LL. DLO D m Opp as xa N •: / W - �y z � <: LL Q . Z LL = W o O z W W LL =° Z Q H Z O z Z ..i =i F:Q G m wQ cc W D cc 0 O ■ 8 N a � w m : � r _ : 3 q Wc.......••..•,. o uiLD f � w � a W O # . 'A • • W •• • M • Q •� • f- •: w•NN•N• i • i : • • • f • • N0• ••••••••NNNNN• 1, j � MNN•••N � � Chapter Six • Housing consumer incomes. Between 1980 and 1990, values soared 141 percent and rents increased 128 percent. In contrast, the median household income rose 100 percent before discounting for inflation. The number of very-low-income households is rising absolutely, while lower-cost units have been declining due to the demolition of older units; increasing values and rents taking existing units out of the affordable category; conversions of some rentals to condos; boarding up of some units in blighted areas, the expiration of low-income-use restrictions on government assisted housing, and a drop in subsidized unit production. There is a clear need for affordable housing. Based on the 1990 Census the SCAG region had some 4.9 million households. Of the 4.9 million households, 1.9 million were very-low-and low-income households and almost 1.2 million spend more than 30 percent of income for shelter. This is an increase of 30 percent since 1980. In addition, among all households, the proportion of owners and renters paying less than 209 of income for housing dropped markedly between 1980 and 1990 while those paying above 35 percent of income increased significantly. Recommendations • Restore and increase a large-scale federal role in providing housing subsidies and community development funds to house the poor and low wage workers because local, state and private efforts are by themselves insufficient. • Communities may also consider creating public/private and non-profit partnerships for affordable housing and construction jobs. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-19 0 Chapter Six • Housing - Strategy 4: Home ownership for young and minority households. Home ownership rates stayed about the same between 1980 and 1990 for the population as a whole. About 54 percent of all households owned their home. But trends showed substantial declines in ownership by younger adults, while gains were registered by the elderly (see Figure 6-13). There were also substantial variations of ownership achievement by geographic area, and (see Figure 6-14) racial or ethnic background. Non-Hispanic Whites and Asians saw their ownership levels nudge upwards to 62 percent and 54 percent; whereas, Hispanics and non-Hispanic Blacks saw their ownership levels dip slightly to 39 percent and 38 percent. Level of Home Ownership By Age 1980 & 1990 Ownership for younger age groups decreased, while ownership in the older age groups increased Pement 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 O 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ ® 1980 ® 1990 Note:Renters are the oomplement of owners SCAG Region ;source:1990 Census Figure 6-13 For some, housing conditions improved. Households (over 55 years of age) saw their ownership levels increase. This was not a result of entering into home ownership for the first time. Instead, as the population matured, older residents carried dwelling equity with them from an earlier era (post-World War II through the mid-1960s) when home ownership was more accessible to the young (25-44 years of age) than it was in Figure 6-14the 1980s. About one-fourth of all homeowners in the region were 65 years of age or older in Page 6-20 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan LO W J LLJ LO > � 0 a ■ a y � = a Ww.www.••... � v W cc i W IL r � 1y • • • wN • S • • • • • f N.N..N.......N.w.N...•.NN.Nww�ww�. • • • ••N••••NNN••••• • Chapter Six • Housing 1990, while they make up about 18 percent of all households. Almost 75 percent of all senior households (65 years or older) own their own homes. Also, attention needs to be paid to the needs of young and minority households wishing to access home ownership. Between 1980 and 1990, the percentage gap in home ownership between the young (25-34 years) and tie old (65 years) plus widened. Building the equity stake of younger, primarily minority households in Southern California is critical if they are not to track well below their predecessors in the future. Elderly renters are very vulnerable to housing problems related to cost burden since they typically live on a fixed income. Without the equity cushion of home ownership, senior citizens that rent and have housing problems may ;grow substantially at the same time home ownership for the young stays relatively low. Keeping a balance of home ownership, opportunities that fit the entry level needs of young members of the work force as well as the trade up needs of older members will be important factors in attracting jobs to Southern California. Business location decisions are influenced by the amount of affordable home ownership opportunities available to the work force. Recommendations • Banks should set affirmative lending goals and quantify targets for addressing Community Reinvestment act requirements for meeting credit needs of mortgage deficient communities. • E3ncourage the development and support of programs that make first-time home ownership available. • Support federal and state financing programs that enable lower income households to qualify for home purchase financing and downpayment assistance. 2. Coal: Adequate supply and availability of housing. Strategy 1: Reducing major components of new housing cost. Rising housing production costs and economic uncertainty are preventing the development of an adequate supply of affordable housing choices for many Southern Californians. These rising costs are partially due to political and regulatory barriers and the structure of local government funding (property and sales tax systems). They have a material effect on land cost and availability (see Figure 6-15). Housing production _ costs are also affected by cost of construction materials, labor, and capital financing." A broad-based effort needs to be taken to reduce: costs in every major component if a competitively priced housing market in Southern California, relative to the rest of the nation, is to emerge in the decades ahead. Only Hawaii has higher housing costs than California. About half of all the homes valued above $200,000 in the nation are found in California. Despite the recession-related deflation in home values and moderation of rents,, the Southern California housing market is still one of the least affordable in the nation. In 1974 Southern California median home costs were at the same level as the rest of the United States. Since then, the median home prices in Southern California compared with the rest of the United States have 12Venture County Planning Department letter on RCP Discussion Document, Housing chapter. Page 6-22 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Six • Housing Cost Components of a New Single-Family Home Recent technological advances in home building have significantly increased efficiency and reduced the proportionate costs of labor and materials. In 1949,labor and materials comprised 69 percent of the cost of a new single-family home. By 1992,the total had dropped to 53 However, the drop was offset by a sharp increase m the cost of a developed lot In Southern California as finished lot accounts as much as 35 percent of the total cost in more affluent areas and is more him the national average in distressed areas. Labor&Mataiale Labor&Materials :.},.. ? ......:........................... ............... {�.\\.�::<.v} ;\;"{':;;;\"tiff;..:..{Y \�\V\•\4\\•:.:\}.v.\:.. /• is:- \-.:.:.`... to\ •\w .................. ................... ..... \: ................... .................... .................... ............ ....................................... ..:................. ::'\�:.�:\:iii iv�'��'; .. \: {t•:ti4Jj'ry'i{j;ti i'::iiiiiiivv \•\{:;{i':. ij•:1Z\ttiiA\;}..;}}::}{vw::}::::.,-: -}`\\C`.��:i w:.ii-.:\vt.:iT4�} � 4>t.=v:\' "w'.:`;,.' 11% ..................... FWahed Lot 2296 Fband8 Overhead&Profit Finished Lot Overhead&Profit S 1949 - Sales price $9,500 1992 - Sales price $121,100 Sourm:Healing Backpm-&n,Natiooal Association of Haase&olden, 1993 Figure 6-15 doubled. At the same time, regional real per capita income growth declined in the 1980s compared to the 1970s. The upswing in housing prices occurred at the same time that bank underwriting and appraisal standards = began to ride domestic and foreign real estate speculation; the "due on sale" regulations changed in California; high interest rates raised financing costs; and secondary wage earner incomes were taken into account in mortgage qualification. Underlying the rise in values and rents was an increase in land costs spurred by an enormous demand for buildable lots due to population and economic growth. Builders bid up the price of developable land in an attempt to gain inventory, while local governments placed limitations on supply due to quality of life and environmental concerns. During cyclical boom periods (1975-81 and 1982-89) land assembly lagged behind demand and costs went up and were likely passed on to home buyers and renters. The passage of Proposition 13 in the late 1970s attempted to off-set some of the impact of rising housing values on property tax assessments. The primary beneficiaries were elderly home owners. But the limits on SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-23 in Chapter Six • Housing property tax assessments put a great fiscal strain on local governments and tilted the competition for available land in favor of sales-tax-generating uses rather than service-consuming uses such as housing in built-up areas. In outtlying areas, Proposition 13 encouraged urban fringe areas to court population growth by adopting pro- development polices and offering entry-level homes to commuters. This encouraged the development of a property tax base for the locality, extended a life-style choice to the home buyer and offered the prospect that some: day jobs will follow. But it also encouraged sprawl and attendant problems related to environmental protection, service provision, infrastructure, and congestion. Buyers of new homes everywhere have been hit especially hard by Proposition 13. The fiscal impacts resulted in the adoption of impact fees. While taxes were cut on existing homes, newcomers in new tracts were assessed at their full construction cost and new fees were added for streets, schools, parks and other facilities that property taxes previously funded. Some estimates put these fees at between $10,000 to $30,000 per unit or more on costlier homes.." But these fees do not provide the home owner with any services that existing residents do not already receive. Plus, if home values do not go up, which is likely during the next few years, they will not benefit from a lower tax bill than subsequent newcomers to the neighborhood. What this means is that fewer newcomers and the young can afford new houses. Prices for parcels and fees drive up housing costs in Southern California. In affluent areas land costs make up 3:5-to-40 percent of every new house or apartment. That is more than labor, materials or financing. Land would constitute an even bigger share of housing cost except that builders increase home size and amenities to offset the high cost of land.. Recently, because of the recession, home size has dropped as builders aim at the entry level segment of the housing market. Available land for low-and middle-income housing is scarce because of sensitive geography and the politics that prevent building at higher densities. Fees add between 5-to-10 percent to home price and apartment costs according to some analysts. Regulations, according to State HCD, add up to 80 percent of a new home price.'` The perception is that the majority of voters are in favor of zoning and environmental regulation. They also like fees, which shift costs for public improvements from current to future residents. Without state or federal money, local governments have to rely on fees to pay for public improvements and services. But fees drive up the cost of housing. Without state" or federal mandates,16 local government will heed voters since they resent growth and are apprehensive about the impact of low to middle income housing, especially, its impact on local property values. The structure of local government finance and voter preferences combine to make housing cost reduction difficult. Although economic growth and recovery are predicated, in part, on more affordable and competitively priced housing. Without it, higher labor costs, limited affordable housing supplly and longer commutes will make the region less attractive to both employers and employees. Households will also find housing taking up even more of their incomes than it does today. t3State Housing and Community Development Department(HCD) "State HCD and the Claremont Institute. 16Cal Gov't Code 565580(b) /°Federal regulations related to entitlement programs for Community Development Block Grants and HOME Funds. Page 6-24 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Six • Housing The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) also appears to emphasize a project-oriented review system rather than one that accounts for regional environmental costs and impacts. Recent revisions to CEQA allow site specific Environmental Impact Reports (EIR) to be limited in scope if the project is consistent with the general plan or a community plan (see Master Environmental Impact Report).17 Proposition 13 also spurred the creation of half the states redevelopment agencies and project areas. Among cities of more than 50,000 population, more than 90 percent had redevelopment agencies. Creating a redevelopment agency is one way a locality can keep property tax revenue resulting from new development. As a percent of the tax base, almost 10 percent is devoted to redevelopment in Southern California. Section 33000 of the Health and Safety Code authorizes the use of tax increment financing, eminent domain, and other powers to achieve economic revitalization goals in defined project areas. The legislature created the redevelopment law in 1951 and put in place one of California's most successful and controversial programs. Annually, redevelopment agencies take in more than $1 billion of which 20 percent must be set aside for construction and rehabilitation of housing for low- and moderate-income households. The structure of local government finance needs to be reexamined in light of the side effects it has on the housing market and the ability of the region to establish a competitively priced housing market. Recommendations • There must be reliability and stability in local government financing in order to create a political environment supportive of affordable housing at the local level. • The state structure of financing government should be reexamined because of the side effects of using impact fees to off set reduced tax revenue.18 • The state should establish a new infrastructure financing entity. • Communities should try to the extent possible to reduce the major components of housing cost such as considering an alternative affordable housing development process that could include waived/reduced development fees, modified development standards (parking) and/or fast track approval process. • Builders should build more lower priced housing and anticipate the need for rezoning, outside agency review and environmental impact reports since these add significantly to processing time. • Construction unions should use new technology to reduce costs and permit some off site construction. • When appropriate, local governments should take advantage of the tiering features of the Master Environmental Assessment of the RCP for local project and plan EIRs as well as the local general plan (see Chapter 15 Plan Implementation). 17 Master Environmental Impact Report provides further discussion on strategies to reduce regulatory costs. 18RHNA and Planning Directors Committee Meetings. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-25 Chapter Six • Housing Strategy 2: Financing and the need for funding a. Affordable Housing Finance The need for new units at all income levels will exceed the number of new units for which financing and subsiidies will be available. Additional funding is needed to ensure the production of new subsidized units and housing subsidies as well as the continued flow of capital to market rate ownership housing that allows an adequate supply of low cost, low downpayment mortgage financing. In addition, there exists a need to educate the building and private financial community on opportunities in the affordable housing submarket. For instance, in order to address affordable housing needs in the future an enormous commitment of capital resources and subsidies is needed in the region. If 25 percent of the annual average construction need of 100,000 units was devoted to developing affordable housing, one years capital requirement would be more than 3 billion (25,000 units at an average development cost of 1.25,000 a unit). The subsidy needed at an average of$50,000 a unit would be more than $1 billion. However, the stark reality is that the financing and the fiends needed to provide new housing opportunities are not available despite demand. New resources and additional funding are needed to meet the housing production and subsidy requirements of households earning less than $40,000 per year in most markets. This cost is so high that multiple-financing programs and resources are needed (see Table 6-1). Typically, a combination of several public sources (two-fifths), private financing (one-fifth) and tax credits from syndication (two-fifths) are needed to support construction in built-up areas because of high costs. The level of private financing will drop while trying to assist the low-income households to the very-low-income households, since rents supporting the financing drops. The gap is filled by more public subsidy. The key element in financing a development with affordability restrictions for households earning less than $40,000, is the federal tax credit program. Federal tax credits give investors significant dollar-for-dollar reductions when they invest in qualified low- income housing projects. Investment bankers and special equity funds sell the credits mostly to corporate investors to raise cash for projects. In general, the complexity and risk involved in holding together several resources during the development process results in costs as high as in market developments, projects taking up to four years or more to build, a high project fall-out rate, abandonment of this market segment; to non-profit and high administration costs. New resources and a simplified housing assistance delivery system is needed to meet the housing production and subsidy requirements of affordable housing for modest income households. But how can the multiple- financing programs and funding sources be combined and coordinated to reduce the complexity and cost of leveraging? Should communities in a subregion or commute shed be allowed to have the flexibility to evaluate their needs in common and pool or transfer resources under a reformed State Housing Law? If so, under what conditions1 7 A number of subregions have already approved this approach in concept. A "reinvented HUD" also needs to play a more direct role in providing fiscal relief to local governments and communities in need. 19 South Bay Cities subregion have developed a preliminary model for a transfer program. Page? 6-26 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan 4a U O •v .�'. of Ey v s p o U > ° � E V W E o m w ' O e E m E u E S ° >°o Up as u E �1 E E E o �' E <a,Q ° l� a v ° a o IE ra c S Ceg .uma c E 2 b o x g E C7 a aG u x E E r '- C S V m L' E o E 3 E A 3 u s o �, ,S E a a u Em 8 b � o3 g � o202 a gu � .� s a • • • • F • • • • • • • • pG • • • [� • • • E u m > o f c m S ° c u• E ° a _ •� U x W c 8 °e c Z ZA E U x 0 ° < a W♦♦ � _ M 1� = C y� m Gd : m �r w a m e �. m _ .� E s.. O V t 9 O F o s C $ a 5 o rs � m ova G�iw 3 :E0 as r� U u ° OeJD eap E 'e h 3 a+ a u E $ . 8 V o V ° .E p W 8 as h o EE u �• A 8th co • 94 • • • • • F • • • • • • pG U � C � � E bo ,w r ° m e3o � O C o L JE P.M U , " x e E W o Q4 • • • • F • • • • • • • • • • F • • Fa„ Chapter Six • Housing Factors Influencing the Cost of Housing Development" • Specific affordable projects: o Higher proportion of larger units resulting in increased construction costs. o Twice as many financing sources as market rate projects. o Longer period between site control and construction start than typical. 0 Prevailing wage requirements for affordable projects adds up to 30 percent to cost. o Cost of project syndication using Low-Income Tax Credits adds up to 5 percent in project costs 0 Higher professional costs such as architects, engineering, and consulting fees related to additional time in predevelopment, particularly in distressed areas. • Geographic: o Urban areas have higher costs than suburbanizing areas; affluent areas are more costly than distressed areas. Urban projects use more expensive parking solutions to maximize density (structured parking). Cost per unit for land ranges from about$2,000 per unit in outlying areas to $25,000440,000 in suburban and urban areas. c) Fees/permits makes-up about 5 percent of development costs. b. LDcal Redevelopment :Housing Resources At the local government level redevelopment serves as the single most important resource for addressing low to middle income housing needs and problems. In 1990-91 alone, redevelopment agencies in the SCAG region created 14,231 jobs, built 4,579 units of housing, and rehabilitated or constructed more than 15 million square feet of commercial, industrial and commercial buildings. But housing revenues exceed expenditures and large amounts have accumulated in agency accounts. About one-half billion dollars exist in redevelopment agency accounts, with one-quarter billion dollars estimated to be immediately available. Yet this amount at an average subsidy of$50,000 a unit, would only support about 4,500 units; when annually, the region needs on average 40,000 new affordable housing opportunities (1990 to 2010). However, the early and full utilization of these available funds can play a crucial role in creating local construction jobs and new housing opportunities for lower-income households earning roughly up to $40,000 20 California Affordable Housing Cost Task Force Study. Dated January 1993. Page! 6-28 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan s Chapter Six • Housing a year in most markets and moderate income households earning more. These housing funds serve as the primary local resource for addressing affordable housing needs in the state and region (see Figure 6-16,Y1 REDEVELOPMENT HOUSING RESOURCES AVAILABLE IN SCAG REGION State HCD estimates that $222 million out of$489 million in the low and moderate account is available for housing assistance programs as of July 1, 1992. $250.0 $222.1 $200.0 $198.2 $208.9 $156.4 $150.0 $128.4 $100.0 $50.0 $0.0 FY-1988 FY-1989 FY-1990 FY-1991 FY-1992 Low and Moderate Income Housing Accounts j Somme.seise HCD and mmpikd by SGd Figure 6-16 c. Need for New Resources Redevelopment housing resources are by themselves insufficient to meet affordable housing need. New sources of funds from non-traditional sources and new innovative programs should be utilized for addressing housing issues. Such a non-traditional source is the Enterprise Trust Fund, which the 2000 Regional Partnership Housing Task Force Action Plan recommends. The fund could be used to accumulate resources for rebuilding infrastructure and revitalizing our inner cities. It proposes that and additional fee be placed on special packaged mortgages that are sold to investors with the attraction that only the interest above the rate of inflation would be taxable. This pool of money would be used to finance capital investments and services needed to improve the capacity of communities-in-need. 21 See Redevelopment and Affordable Housing Resources,October, 1993. 22 see the Economic Component, Chapter 2 for a complete discussion. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-29 Chapter Six • Housing Recommendations • Reduce the gap between market wages paid to workers of most housing development firms and administratively set wages paid to workers on all types of federally supported projects by establishing ;separate residential prevailing wages for affordable housing projects. Present prevailing wage requirements raise construction costs 20-to-30 percent. • The state should seek additional capital resources for local government and set up an organizational structure to bring order to the multiple financing programs that are needed to make newly built housing affordable. • :Local redevelopment housing funds should be fully utilized in a timely, efficient and effective manner since they are the primary affordable housing resource in California. The 2000 Regional Partnership Housing Task Force Report recommends a series of proposals to ensure sufficient capital for housing through changes in state and federal regulations. These proposals include the following: • ]Permanently extend tax incentives for low-income housing. (Recently passed by Congress) • Urge banking regulators to revise excess regulatory limits and underwriting criteria, which interfere with the development of competitively prices housing. (New stringent lending criteria has reduced the number of mortgage lenders and make construction financing more expensive, especially for multi-family developers). • Develop state incentives for pension funds to invest directly in competitively priced multi- and single- family housing. • Establish state and federal incentives to encourage employer-assisted housing programs. • :support federal legislation to increase the cap on tax-exempt mortgage bonds. (The $150 million state crap that has been in effect is inadequate). • Create a state sponsored source of credit enhancement for bond-financed projects. • Create an Enterprise Trust Fund." Policies or incentives to encourage investment by private industry and individuals in securities issued by the secondary mortgage market(see Enterprise Fund Proposal, Economic Element, Chapter 2). Page? 6-30 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Six • Housing Strategy 3: Density as a lower-cost housing option.` The suburbanization of entry-level single-family development on the edge of the region posed significant environmental, open space, endangered species habitat and agricultural use tradeoffs. Many low cost units were lost during the decade in older urban areas where new multi-family development was concentrated. Vacancy levels were high for home ownership housing and increased markedly for newly built rental housing due to absorption problems related to its affordability. The social environment of many urban neighborhoods was a serious problem and extended beyond housing issues. A balance and mix of housing densities, and building types besides the single-family home on its own lot, is emerging in response to high housing costs in the region'. But it is not enough to satisfy demand. Even though the single-family home in outlying areas was the most popular housing type constructed, there were also trends toward constructing higher density housing and lower density mobile homes, both were a response to high housing costs and site availability. Higher density housing spreads fixed development costs over more units on smaller sites and mobile homes allow new construction cost efficiencies on cheaper land. For example, density increases can reduce per-unit development costs by spreading a projects fixed costs over more units. However, when density bonuses or higher-density projects are proposed, there are often other issues such as traffic impacts and neighborhood compatibility that discourage the increase and raise the concern of neighbors. Because of differences in community receptivity about densities, developers themselves avoid proposing them. NIMBYism (Not-In-My-Backyard) is a particularly vexing problem in achieving affordable housing goals. This occurs when residents perceive lower cost housing as a threat to their own property values. Reducing land costs in affluent and distressed areas coupled with across the board reductions in all the major factors that contribute to housing production costs, especially parking requirements and fees related to affordable housing, can put housing within the reach of a larger group of potential owners or renters (see Figure 6-17). Higher construction costs in affluent areas result from substantially higher land costs and small site, higher density problems that increase costs associated with structured parking and higher-density construction. Higher-density is assumed to be 20-to-30 units per acre or more. This is the density at which parking can no longer be accommodated in woodframe garages or surface lots, but must be accommodated in a concrete structure. Increased parking costs escalate at higher densities primarily due to lower overall efficiency of the building. More space is devoted to corridors, stairways, hallways and entrance ramps. Mobile homes have the highest incidence of ownership of any building type (85 percent). Yet only 4 percent of all households in the region live in this type of lower density housing, mostly retired senior citizens. 24VCOG recommended to increase housing production cities and counties should consider increasing housing densities in selected areas. 25 Subregional input Arroyo Verdugo, Son Gabriel Valley and WRCOG. 261n Affordable and Hiah Density Housina:Myths and Facts,dated September, 1993,the Californian Planning Roundtable discusses this and other concerns related to higher density housing. They assert, for instance, that property values are not adversely affected by lower cost and higher density housing. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-31 Chapter Six • Housing Per Unit Affordable Housing $110,000 Cost Differences Between Areas $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 ® Affluent $70,000 Distressed $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 I $20,000 $10,000 Land Construction Professional Garda Apts in S.M.and 0wQ9 Apts In Lennox provided by WSM Figure 6-17 During the 1980s, the percentage increase in mobile homes rose significantly in Southern California, especially in desert and non-metro areas. Next to single-family-attached housing, it was the second fastest growing building type constructed in the region. Mobile homes were concentrated in Riverside, north Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties. Single-family attached housing, which brings the tax advantage of home ownership to apartment dwellers, = was rarely seen before 1970 but has grown steadily in importance. In urban areas of Los Angeles and Orange counties, many apartments were lost through conversion to condominium use. Owner-occupancy in this building type increased from 44 percent in 1980 to 57 percent in 1990, while occupied units in this building type increase 75 percent. This is the fastest growing type of housing in the region. About 7 percent of all households in the region live in single-family attached housing. Another higher-density-type, multi-family housing also increased significantly in the 1980s. Apartment construction of buildings of five units or more increased a hefty 17 percent and was spurred by changes in the tax law in 1986. Almost 75 percent of these units were occupied by households in living south Los Angeles county. Almost 1.3 million households live in this type of housing in Southern California. Only occupancy in single-family detached housing on its own lot exceeds this figure. About 2.6 of the 4.9 million households in the Southland live in a home with its own yard—an "American Dream" living situation. Page 6-32 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Six • Housing A new housing accommodation category emerged in 1990. The "Other" category was created by the Census Bureau to describe homes that occupants did not define as a housing unit. About 51,000 homes fell into this category, with two-thirds located in south Los Angeles County. This housing may have been illegal or non- traditional. It was an important housing resource due to its low-cost or use as lodging. Using a full range of density options can help accommodate a growing and changing population and avoid the proliferation of illegal lower cost housing. Recommendation • Each jurisdiction should preserve single family areas and provide sites and zoning for multifamily areas that allow affordable housing development that avoid costly structured parking and high density construction solutions. 3. Goal: Housing stock maintenance and preservation. Strategy 1: Preserve affordability of older housing after refurbishment. The 1990 Census counted 5.3 million housing units in the Southem California, an increase of 20 percent during the 1980s. This increase was higher than the United States increase of 16 percent. But almost 2 million units in the region (40 percent) have been built before 1960. These units are concentrated in older cities in south Los Angeles County (see Figure 6-18). The proportion of older housing is higher for rental units than owner occupied units, especially in the greater Los Angeles area where one-third of these older units are located. The decade-to-decade increase in older units was 72 percent. Almost 900,000 units turned 30 years old during the 1980s. Not all of these units are in a state of decline with age, and many have increased in value through housing improvements, such as renovations and additions and high levels of property management. However, it is also true that older housing can be expensive to maintain, may lack modem equipment or amenities and may be located in less desirable neighborhoods (see Figure 6-19). SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-33 Q w Ll o � Y a = a .a � c Cl) cc J 1A r- o ■ W a 4 LL CC 0 a :.N.............................. co b W R •R, Z • • Chapter Six • Housing Housing by Age, 1990 The likelihood of a housing unit being removed increases with age. About 40% or 2 million units are 30 years and older. Most of the older housing is located in South Los Angeles County, while newly built units are concentrated in sububanizing areas. 1400 1200 1,203 '8 1000 1,031 1,028 1,036 ■ Imperial Co. 800 ❑ Los Angeles Co. ® Orange Co. 600 502 528 ® Riverside Co. ® S. Bernardino Co. 400 Ventura Co. 200 0 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s and earlier and 1990s soerce:two Cemm Figure 6-19 Remodeling, recycling, refurbishment or demolition occurs within the older housing stock'. It also is more prone to conversion and shift in tenure from owner to renter. Older single-family rental units are the most prone to removal. The likelihood of a unit being removed from inventory increases with its age. This is what makes housing preservation so important since it extends the life of relatively affordable and less-expensive housing. It also postpones replacement with a more expensive newly built and, likely, higher-density unit. In many areas, older low-cost unit removals exceed the production of new subsidized housing intended for the same lower income population. Older units are the mainstay of the affordable housing inventory and urban reinvestment and preservation are needed to safeguard it as a future resource. 27 SELAC subregion recommended that a subregional program be designed and implemented for the recycling of aging housing stock and related infrastructure improvements to discourage the flight to other areas. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-35 Chapter Six • Housing Recommendation • Municipalities should adopt goals to preserve and enhance the quality of the older housing stock in the region since market incentives by themselves are insufficient to support costs of refurbishment. 4. Goal: Promote a mix of housing opportunities regionwide. Strategy 1: Social equality and equal housing opportunity. During the 1980s, the built environment provided less of a mix of housing opportunities. Geographically, Southland society separated into areas where residents and newcomers were well-housed and ill-housed. Housing equality lessened as the isolation and concentration of poorer households in several areas of the region and in older housing continued. The sharp differences in housing costs between subregions and metropolitan market areas contributed to this pattern. Lower-income households were concentrated in south Los Angeles County, central Orange County, the area between the Pomona and Sim Bernardino freeways going east toward the cities of Riverside and San Bernardino (10-60 Corridor), Oxnard-Ventura area, desert areas„ and Imperial County (see Figure 6-20). The areas concentrated with low-income households, a majority of which are Black or Hispanic (see Figure 6- 21), contained much older housing than elsewhere, had fewer residents that owned homes, experienced significant increases in housing values and rent, experienced high levels of crowding, and residents paid more than one-third of their income for shelter. These locations were also concentrated along transportation corridors and in central metropolitan areas where many jobs and transportation centers were located. But these areas were also characterized by greater concentrations of blight as compared to suburban locations. Low-income people in these areas mostly rent, while in desert and rural areas they often own their own homes. From a public policy standpoint, what requirements and incentives are there for local government, voting public and all residents to make tough choices that would enable new affordable housing for owners and renters more broadly available and where it is needed to relieve pressure on environmentally sensitive areas most everyone would like to see undeveloped or unchanged? How does the region grapple with the problems _ of ill-housed families and individuals. One major vehicle for addressing these issues is the RHNA program which, is mandated by the state. The other is the ballot box. In addition to the total requirements for new construction and addressing local existing needs of ill housed families and individuals, State law requires that a RHNA contain a planning adjustment to reduce the concentrations of lower income households in jurisdictions where they are disproportionately represented relative to their representation in the whole regional market. Factors that must be considered include existing and anticipated job-based demand for housing by the work force and the current proportion of lower income households. Page 6-36 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan • >.. IN" All 1 � r xi f i .,,2 3 77,- .o. Chapter Six • Housing Ethnicity by Income SCAG Region 70- Legend White E1 Black 60 Hispanic Am. Indian C� Asian 50 4 X, 1530- 20 i\\ 1. v,v{ O O to 50% 51 to 80% 61 to 95% Above 95°x6 Median Family Income Figure 6-21 Without an adjustment policy, households earning less than $40,000 (lower-income) in most subregions would be locked into present locations by the planning process. The chief objective is to bring communities closer to the regional average for the percentage of households that have lower incomes. Communities with too many lower-income households would be brought down, while communities with below average lower-income = numbers would be brought up. The policy decision of SCAG members is that each community should close one-quarter of±he gap ("25 percent" of the way) between their current percentage and their regional average. This small adjustment allows for the continuation of local differences, and ensures that planning policy will nudge communities toward greater equality over time. Planning policy may come in conflict with the ballot boa wishes of local residents. Some critics contend that high :housing costs are unduly influenced by local regulations—mainly zoning regulations that require low densities—because there is a perception that the property value of homes would decline if lower cost units are nearby (state HCD studies show it may not), fears that lower-income neighbors bring social problems, and that the higher-density often required by affordable housing brings traffic, congestion and other quality-of-life difficulties. Underlying these perceptions are the fiscal realities that housing is a tax consuming and not a tax generating activity for the local governments in built-up areas. Page? 6-38 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Six • Housing The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) also appears to emphasize a project-oriented review system rather than one that accounts for regional environmental costs and impacts. For instance, if densities or zoning are reduced below levels that permit construction of a balanced share of subregional growth, there is no mechanism to ask what the environmental costs will be to the region if housing must instead be built elsewhere. Housing policy and affordable housing siting issues may also be difficult to resolve in areas where a smaller group in the general population is the majority group in the voting population. A generation gap exists between younger renters, mostly minority households, and older homeowners, mostly non-Hispanic Whites. These groups have substantially different age-related housing demands and cultural backgrounds. This may make the acceptance of new affordable rental and first-time homeowner opportunities in areas with higher home ownership rates controversial, especially if an Article 34 referendum is needed to publicly finance the development. For example, In 1992, the two-tiered nature of California society became increasingly evident in the political arena as well as in terms of residential housing patterns. A Field Institute study on political demography found that homeowners were more likely to be registered to vote than renters. Currently, 71 percent of residents who own their own home are registered, while 56 percent of the state's renters are registered. Whereas 41 percent of all adults are Hispanic, Black, Asian or some other minority,just 19 percent of all voters were from these voting groups in the June 1992 California Primary. 'Me median voting age is 50 years old and rising. Non-citizen immigrants are not eligible to vote. A mix of housing opportunities by building type and income level is needed to assure social equity and equal housing opportunity. The lack of a socioeconomic mix of households throughout the region also affects the quality of life for everyone and balance of housing supply available to'the work force. All levels of government and the private-sector should be involved in developing goals, actions and policies that address these issues. Recommendations • Every community should ensure a mix of housing opportunities and building types in order to achieve equal housing opportunity, balanced development and social diversity goals. • All residents need to view their housing needs as connected to the needs of other households in the = market place. The political resentment against growth is a serious constraint on developing housing solutions for accommodating a changing population's housing needs. 28 Recommended by Arroyo Verdugo, San Gabriel Valley, and WRCOG SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 6-39 1 1 3 Ihsp � 7 � HUMAN RESOURCES AND SERVICES • Introduction • Goals • The Changing Region • The Human Services System • Otherlssues • Investment Strategies for Communities in Need A. INTRODUCTION During the 1980s the population in the SCAG region grew by 3 million people for a total of approximately 14.6 million residents: The number of foreign-born residents increased by 1.8 million between 1980 and 1990. Two-out-of-three newcomers were of Hispanic origin. Residents of Asian heritage nearly doubled during the decade, becoming the fastest growing segment of the population, while non-Hispanic Whites declined to less than 50 percent of the total. According to SCAG's projections, the region's population will increase to 20.5 million by the year 2010, which means that an additional 6 million people will have to be accommodated. Changes in the demographics experienced during the past decade are expected to continue, with the non-Hispanic White - population becoming 36 percent of the population in 2010. The African-American population is expected to SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 7-1 Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services remain stable at about 8 percent, but the percentages of Hispanic and Asian/Other populations are expected to continue to increase significantly.' California's diversity poses many challenges. The fastest growing segments of the population, which are young and of color, will be responsible for the services that an aging, predominantly White middle-class will require. In the political arena the body of voters does not yet represent Hispanics and Asians proportionate to their numbers in the population, and these groups are beginning to demand political power commensurate with their numbers. As the diversity of the population increases, intergroup relations become more important. Public, private and non-profit organizations must understand and flexibly respond to different communities and to the varying needs of their residents. To develop inter-group harmony, existing organizations must wort; to build dialogue at the community level and create forums where local issues may be addressed. These organizations must break down existing barriers to link these communities and build a greater sense of cooperation and cohesion among them. By involving all segments of the community, organizations can marshall all available resources into one concerted effort to improve people's lives. B. GOALS The Human Resources and Services chapter of the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) deals with issues related most directly to the well-being of the region's residents. Whereas all the chapters in the RCP are related to issues that affect the quality of life in the region—its economy, mobility, the affordability of homes, protection of open space, availability and quality of water supplies, quality of the air, and hazardous waste management—this chapter focuses on people as individuals, on the opportunities to develop their full potential physically and mentally and on the services required to meet people's needs and help them achieve their personal goals and allow them to participate fully as active citizens. Comistent with the goals of the RCP—a rising standard of living, a healthy and environmentally sound quality of life, and achieving equity—the goals of this chapter are the following: • Provide basic human services to families and individuals to foster human dignity of every individual. - • Promote opportunities for all individuals to find self-sufficiency, dignity and meaning in their work. • Promote safe, vital communities in which cultural, educational and recreational opportunities are available and accessible to all residents. • Address the needs of the poor and the disadvantaged and engage them in working constructively to break the poverty cycle. ' Population descriptions correspond to terms in the U.S.Census. Page 7-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services • Transform economically depressed communities into dynamic, successful, and healthy entities with a skilled workforce. The recommendations in this chapter to fulfill these objectives do not create new legal mandates for local governments or other regional governmental organizations. C. THE CHANGING REGION According to the U.S. Census, more than one-fourth of the residents in the SCAG region are foreign-born, and 30 percent of those immigrants—a total of 1.8 million—entered the United States between 1980 and 1990. The proportion of foreign-born residents increased from 19 percent to 27 percent of the population between 1980 and 1990. SCAG projections for future growth indicate that the proportional share of the Hispanic and Asian populations will increase, while the proportion of Non-Hispanic Whites will continue to decline. While the number of elderly in the region is projected to continue to increase, the regional median age is expected to increase only slightly—from 30.6 in 1990 to 32.3 in 2010. Because approximately 75 percent of the population growth will be due to children born since 1-990 and because immigrants are typically young, the median age will remain lower than the state and national average. (The Growth Management chapter of the RCP includes a comprehensive discussion of the population trends in the SCAG region.) SCAG's projections show the number of jobs in the region will rise from 7 million in 1990 to 9.8 million in 2010, an increase of 39 percent. Employment increased by more than 66 percent in the 18 years from 1972 through 1990. Therefore, the projected 20 year increase in employment does not compare favorably to the region's past performance. The region's 9.3 percent average unemployment rate for 1992 is much higher than the 1990 average of 5.5 percent, and the unemployment rate is likely to remain high. The combined SCAG regional forecasts of population, labor force, and jobs indicate that the labor force over the next twenty years would exceed the number of jobs by more than 8 percent. The chapter on The Economy assesses the region's economy—its history and strategies for economic prosperity and equity. However, it is necessary to also address the need for services for the future workforce, indeed for all residents—services for children and youth, training and development, and services _ for specific populations. Although the cities and the counties in the SCAG region have been important providers of human services throughout the years, there are increasing concerns about gaps in the network of human service providers. Reductions in government funding have created increased pressure on limited resources in the community, both public and private. Not only is there less public money available to support existing programs, but organizations, which must look to the private sector for support face increasing competition for available funds. The region must find new structures to provide these needed services. For example, the integration of social and health services at neighborhoods, preferably at or near school sites, would help the human service 4 delivery system be more effective, efficient, and accessible. The poorer the people, the greater the need for SCAG 0 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 7-3 Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services nearby resources in their communities. Schools are also trusted institutions where children and their families can easily access services. Additionally, coordination between schools or other local institutions and public and private agencies providing social and health services can offset geographic inequities in service distribution. Coordinating the delivery of services at the local level will simplify the layers of bureaucracy through which resources are delivered. Schools, however, must be provided the resources to deliver any health and social services. Teachers need to concentrate on educating students and not be burdened with additional responsibilities. FINDING SOLUTIONS Desirable solutions to the region's social problems should be developed by the community through community-based associations, which should be encouraged. These associations can serve as vehicles for nurturing the development of capable leaders and ensuring that the design and delivery of services take place at the local level. Community-based organizations typically evolve when neighborhood residents decide to work together to solve.a common problem. ]However, organizations cannot be sustained when they have a limited agenda. Community-based organizations need to diversify their agendas to achieve lasting improvements in their communities. By organizing around the issues important to residents, associations can help create more stable communities that offer a sense of identity and belonging, opportunity and hope. That cohesion will result in public safety and reduced crime and will overall improve the quality of life of all residents. Neighborhood associations need to be structured to allow members to interact with public officials in reviewing project proposals and monitoring local and citywide issues. Citizen participation in public decision-making not only promotes citizenship training, but conflicting interests and emerging needs can be identified and resolved more quickly. A major challenge faced by community groups is limited resources—money available from local donations and fundraising events is rarely enough to support them. One possible approach might be to establish "sister- community" relationships between "communities with capacity" and "communities in need." When communities come together, not only do they develop a greater understanding of each other and confront common problems, they also allow communities in need to have better understanding and interaction with the system. By working together, residents can acquire professional, entrepreneurial, and political skills. Interaction between neighborhood associations and between the associations and traditional institutions can further foster the mutual understanding and respect necessary to deal with the region's social problems and support the goals of this plan. D. 'THE HUMAN SERVICES SYSTEM Millions of dollars are being; channeled through thousands of agencies and organizations throughout the SCAG region to provide human services to residents. Yet, the needs of many people are not being met because they have limited information and knowledge of the available services, and many of these services Page 7-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services are inaccessible to those who need them most. Because of funding and other restrictions, service providers typically concentrate on the services they provide rather than focusing on their clients needs. The integration of human services, which is essential to fill the gaps, does not mean program consolidation into a single structure. Rather, it means linking resources and services more effectively, so that a continuum of services is available to help individuals gain economic self sufficiency and personal well-being. The demographic and economic changes occurring in the region have placed a heavy burden on the human services delivery system. Studies by various groups, such as The 2000 Partnership, United Way of Greater Los Angeles, and the NARC/Ford Foundation Project, have suggested the establishment of a consortium of human service providers at the county level.' The consortium would increase the efficiency and responsiveness of the delivery system by establishing an information network among agencies and other providers, helping match services to facilities, and coordinating the delivery of services at the local level. Recommendations from SCAG subregional organizations include the establishment of a Human Relations Commission in each of the SCAG subregions and regularly scheduled conferences sponsored by SCAG and the subregions to enable these commissions to share ideas' The subregions could also provide a forum, creating consortiums between service providers and local communities. This approach would help disseminate information regarding currently successful programs throughout the region — such as drug and alcohol programs, youth programs, training/development programs, as well as programs to improve public safety and reduce crime. This chapter examines three specific program areas: • Services for children and youth, particularly those des_igned to prevent delinquency, gangs, teenage pregnancy, and other related problems. • Services that improve employment opportunities, particularly for the young and the disadvantaged and for unskilled persons and groups lacking English proficiency. • Services for displaced individuals—including the homeless, the medically indigent, and the elderly. RECOMMENDATIONS: • Develop a method to track and evaluate the delivery of services. • Identify duplication and gaps in services and coordinate and integrate service providers to reduce the duplication and eliminate the gaps. • Design and deliver services based on the needs of clients, not on the service agencies' historical preferences. An example is the Los Angeles 2000 Committee's 1988 report,L4 2000,A City for the future. 9 Subregional input: South Bay Cities Association, Coachella Valley Association of Governments, Southeast Los Angeles County. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 7-5 Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services • Develop an information database to link those in need of services with those who can provide the services. • Provide linkages between business and the educational community for the development of support programs and resources to impart on students the skills, knowledge, and attitudes necessary to be successfully employed.. 1 . SERVICES FOR CHILDREN AND YOUTH Early education and intervention in identifying and helping children at risk as early as possible in their formative years is a sound investment. Children in families confronting multiple problems need early support so that they remain in school and develop the basic skills they need to succeed in the job market. Studies show children who enjoy the benefit of early education programs become better students. Better students become more productive employees able to pay higher taxes and thus continue to fund the necessary services for future generations. Coordination between schools and the public and private agencies providing social and health services can improve access to these services for families and their children by bringing services at or near school sites. Coordinating services so they are linked to schools can also help offset any geographic inequities in service distribution. In assessing the human services system, experts in the field of education and human services have concluded .that the current system fails, children for many reasons, particularly the following: • Services are crisis oriented and are designed to react to problems rather than to preventing them. • The problems of children and families are divided into rigid, distinct categories that fail to reflect interrelated causes and effects. • Separate and often conflicting eligibility standards and regulations govern the allocation of funds—as a result, providers tend to focus on one solution per specific problem. • Specialized agencies are unable to provide comprehensive solutions to complex problems. • Because service providers must compete for scarce resources and protect their turf, there is a lack of communication and cooperation among the vast number of public and private sector agencies. SERN'ICES FOR CHILDREN AND YOUTH - GOALS • Plan and promote the coordination of services for all children and their families in the region to ensure their development and well being. • Develop multipurpose neighborhood facilities to provide health, educational, recreational and social services to residents—including outreach and referrals. Page 7-6 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services • Provide bilingual information, translation and interpretation as needed to serve all residents, while assisting all residents to become proficient in English. RECOMMENDATIONS • Change eligibility standards and regulations governing the expenditure of funds to allow children and their families to receive a full range of services. • Public and private sector human services providers should share models and other information about programs so that they will effectively do the following: • Provide programs and services at early childhood and pre-school levels.` • Provide after-school and summer enrichment programs for children including arts and crafts, painting, drama, music, gymnastics, sports, reading, science, computer training, and leadership skills. Educational services for youth should include remedial education and college counseling. • Provide services to youth at-risk with positive alternatives to gang activities, drug or alcohol abuse, truancy, or other anti-social behavior through counseling, social services and remedial tutoring. • Provide counseling and referral services for runaway youth, including information about drugs, alcohol, sexually transmitted and other communicable diseases, comprehensive substance abuse programs, and vocational services. • Provide programs for families with special stress problems, such as child abuse and potentially abusive adults including outreach, evaluation, intervention, and a crisis hotline. 2. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT The economic future and quality of life of Southern California are considered in peril due to the loss of high- paying industrial and manufacturing jobs, which have traditionally provided the best economic opportunities for newcomers. Southern California has developed a dual economy: one in which workers who have a high school diploma and some college education earn high wages in entertainment, aerospace, high-tech, finance and business services;and another in which mostly non-White and immigrant workers who lack education and skills earn low wages in apparel, textile, and service jobs. As a result of economic competition, there are increasing ethnic and racial tensions. Yet, there are strengths inherent in diversity that must be tapped, and that offer hope and opportunity for building a healthier future. Although rapid immigration generates some adverse effects on the state's infrastructure, the influx of highly- `Subregional input: Coachella Valley Association of Governments. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 7-7 Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services motivated, trainable individuals provides California with enormous advantages in the world economy. These workers are not limited by traditional ways of looking at problems and, when given proper training, they can come up with innovative ways to improve production. Immigrant entrepreneurs with firms in such emerging fields as computers, biotechnology, environmental engineering, software, and telecommunications contribute to California's continuing dominance on virtually every list of the nation's fastest-growing businesses. There will, however, be few employment opportunities for those unable to read, write and speak English fluently and perform basic mathematical computations. Success in today's economy depends on basic skill competency. Workers must have basic skills, otherwise the SCAG region will be faced with both increasing underemployment and unemployment among the least skilled and a shortage of skilled workers. Coalitions of major forces in the region, such as LEARN (Los Angeles Educational Alliance for Restructuring Now), are advocating changes in the education system to improve the skill level of residents. These groups advocate structural changes, including teacher autonomy, school-based management and shared decision making, parental involvement, raised expectations for academic performance, clear goals, accountability for all stakeholders, and development of meaningful assessment tools. Reform will require cooperation among concerned parents, political leaders concerned about the future of the region, and business leaders concerned about the skills of future employees. Businesses can take their own specialized training into the schools through employee development programs. Employment-bound students need to be aware of the skills they will need to enter the workforce and the types of career opportunities these skills will bring. If students understand the benefits of acquiring the essential skills, they will be motivated to remain in school and excel academically. Following are various programs connecting students to the workplace: • Mentorships provide role models by having business professionals spend time with students in the school or in the workplace. The objective is to expose students to resources they might not otherwise find on their own, and to encourage and reinforce new behaviors, attitudes, and ,ambitions. • Specialized Curriculum make available to students employment development programs being used in lbe business community, such as seminars, workshops, conferences, and training videos, to enhance school curriculum and serve as a resource for instruction. • Worksite Visitations provide teachers and students with special opportunities to see how classroom skills and training are used in the work place. • On Campus Volunteers businesses should permit and encourage employees to participate in classroom situations working with teachers as a resource. • Scholarships establish funds through corporate giving to provide scholarships and financial assistance that increase opportunities for vocational and technical training and continuing education. BenelSts to businesses participating in partnerships with schools include development of a skilled and productive workforce and better prepared future employees; development of a workforce in fields where shortages exist; and improved public/community relations. Page 7-8 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan i Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services The chapter on the Economy points out that professional service industries, which usually pay high wages, value a highly educated workforce — along with quality of life considerations — as dominant factors in business location decisions. Through successful business-academic relationships, students can acquire the skills essential to attract and support future job opportunities in the SCAG region. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT - GOALS • Motivate employment-bound high school students by making them aware of the link between academic achievement and success in future employment. • Foster a common understanding among students, teachers, and the private sector of the skills, knowledge, training, and attitudes necessary to succeed in the work place. RECOMMENDATIONS • Use a standard definition of the skills required by industry to integrate training conducted in different schools. - • Organize a network of schools to provide training for forecasted high-demand occupations. • Partnerships between the private and public sectors and non-profit institutions must aim to assure trainees employment. • Programs should be developed to give members of disadvantaged groups the basic skills required to start their own businesses. • Training facilities should be accessible to lower-income communities. • Academic programs should be supplemented by on-campus employment-related services, such as advice for job interviews and motivational seminars to eliminate internal barriers to advancement (low self-esteem, poor image, lack of self-confidence.) 3. SERVICES FOR SPECIFIC POPULATIONS Assessments of the needs of all segments of the region's population are necessary to develop and implement services. Data must be gathered through various methodologies, including demographic data, assessments for particular target groups, household surveys, special group surveys, and public hearings to identify the needs of particular communities. Increases in the numbers of elderly, homeless, people with disabilities and other special populations have implications on the types of human services required to meet their needs. • What special groups are there, and where are their members concentrated? SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 7-9 i Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services • What growth is expected in these groups? • What are their special needs, and what can be done to meet these needs? The region must not only meet the needs of the elderly people who are at risk today, it must also shape services to respond to an elderly population that will continue to increase in size. Elderly people with lower fixed( incomes are at the same time more service dependent. Policies and programs developed must aim at keeping older people involved in all aspects of the community. The homeless population increasingly includes young people and families with children. The alcoholics, the deinstitutionalized, and the substance abusers have been joined by young runaways, the recently unemployed, and families often comprised of single women with children. SERVICES FOR SPECIFIC POPULATIONS - GOALS • Increase the opportunity for greater independence among all the region's populations, including the elderly, the homeless„ and those with disabilities. • Provide the necessary level of support and choice in community-based care so that the disadvantaged are able to maintain themselves in independent living and to maximize their quality of life. • The short-term intervention to address homelessness must deal with the problem of survival for those without shelter and support services. However, the ultimate goal is to find permanent shelter and employment for the homeless and return them to the mainstream of society. RECOMMENDATIONS: • Provide local jurisdictions with community-based service facility data to assist the service organizations to place their health, social, and welfare programs in structures accessible to those with disabilities, the elderly, and the homeless. • Promote the "service-hub" concept, small-scale, community- based facilities in close geographical = proximity to function as an integrated unit. The basic elements of a support network could be added to existing infrastructures, such as shopping malls and community centers. • Provide comprehensive nutritional, recreational and geriatric health services for seniors, as well as information and referral services. • Provide transportation to service centers to participants with ambulatory limitations. Page 7-10 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan ow Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services E. OTHER ISSUES 1 . ALCOHOL AND DRUGS In September 1988, California enacted legislation that encourages counties to develop a Master Plan to address alcohol and drug problems. The purpose of the process is to increase coordination and collaboration among the health, education, social services and criminal justice systems. Alcohol and drug-related problems involve issues of prevention and treatment—the need for alcohol prevention, treatment, and recovery services, and the need to develop public policy to address alcohol and drug problems. Prevention issues address the total environment in which alcohol and drug problems occur. Treatment issues are concerned with the design of services and allocation of funds to different service categories. There are many public and private programs throughout the region that address alcohol- and drug-related problems. The services provided by these programs reflect different but often complementary and interrelated strategies, including research and evaluation to understand the nature and scope of the problems; public policy strategies and enforcement and intervention activities to establish social controls over supply, demand, and consumption; prevention efforts to influence behaviors leading to drug use and high-risk alcohol consumption; and recovery and treatment strategies to assist individuals, families, and communities to overcome existing problems. Service providers compete for scarce resources and must structure their activities to conform to the dictates of the various and sometimes conflicting legislative, administrative, and contractual requirements, rather than to community needs. Not only do these requirements often discourage interagency cooperation, coordination and sharing of resources, and interdisciplinary approaches to the problems, they also limit the flexibility of service providers to respond to changing community needs. Alcohol and drug problems are pervasive elements of a broader spectrum of individual and community problems, and solutions must include a wide range of health and human service endeavors. RECOMMENDATIONS: • State and federal funding available to meet the demands for services should be fairly distributed - throughout the region. • There should be adequate services for special target populations that are underserved by traditional programs, such as minority groups, women, the disabled, youth and the elderly. • Programs for criminal offenders need to include services to help this population recover from alcoholism and drug addiction, while they are incarcerated and after they are released. • The agencies involved should develop cost-efficient programs for people with dual diagnoses of mental illness and alcoholism or drug addiction. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 7-11 111:i:iIDIOM Chanter Seven • Human Resources and Services • :Local governments must address public policy issues related to the placement and operation of alcoholic beverage outlets throughout the region (the proliferation of these outlets) and the manner in which alcoholic beverages are marketed (the content of alcoholic beverage advertising). • Retailers of alcoholic beverages must ensure that their products are marketed in a responsible manner. • Strategies are needed to identify and suppress crack houses and drug sales activities. • :Media campaigns need to emphasize the relationship between drug and alcohol use and a wide variety of community and social problems (such as child abuse,.crime, domestic violence, rising health care costs, and overcrowding in jails.) • ,rbe public should be informed about the dangers of drinking and drug use during pregnancy. • ]Provide youth with accurate information about the health risks of using alcohol, tobacco, and illegal drugs and with training in effective techniques for resisting peer pressure to use those substances. 2. AIDS AND OTHER CATASTROPHIC ILLNESSES Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is an impairment of the body's immune system caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), a retrovirus which directly attacks portions of the immune system. Affected individuals become vulnerable to illnesses, including infections, rare cancers, and neurological manifestations. Individuals infected with HIV may not test positive for HIV antibodies for several months, and the virus can be undetected yet transmissible through sexual contact, blood transfusions, or the sharing of needles used to inject illicit drugs. RECOMMENDATIONS: • Foster planning, networking, and coordination among local agencies and organizations directing ,AIDS awareness activities and providing AIDS related services. • Involve all segments of the community in developing linguistically-and culturally-sensitive materials rind programs for communicable diseases (such as hepatitis and tuberculosis), AIDS, and other catastrophic illnesses. • ]Provide information regarding social services programs, community services and resources including referrals for medical, legal, counseling, and emotional support services, home delivered meals, adult day care, and transportation. Page 7-12 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services 3. SAFETY In the aftermath of the April 1992 disturbances, Los Angeles and various surrounding communities have often been portrayed as places where crime is out of control, and safety has become a major concern throughout most of the SCAG region. The problem of adolescent crime has particularly attracted the attention of the public, as the evening news give daily accounts of gang-related violence. In 1977, California passed the Determinate Sentence Law emphasizing punishment, instead of rehabilitation, as the purpose of prison. This law required mandatory prison sentences for many offenders formerly eligible for probation, and it increased the rate at which probation and parole violators were returned to prison. As a result, there has been an alarming increase in the California corrections population, at a tremendous cost. As policy makers address the increasing concerns with violence, they must focus on the need to invest in early prevention and intervention. According to the Children's Defense Fund, every $1 spent on early prevention and intervention saves $4.75 in costs of remedial education, welfare and crime. The cost to the California taxpayer for one year in prison per inmate exceeds $25,000; and this figure does not include the amounts spent on prison bonds.' Crime also impacts negatively on other aspects of urban life: health care costs, children in poverty, even air quality and mobility as people move away from urban areas perceived as too dangerous. Therefore, the question to consider is how much the region is willing to invest now to avoid paying more later. Young people who become involved in criminal activities are more likely to grow up to become chronic criminal offenders. According to the RAND Corporation, California ranks among the most punitive states in the treatment of high-risk youth. RAND notes that, with 11 percent of the U.S. population, California accounts for more than 20 percent of the juveniles incarcerated in the entire nation' Prevention strategies must be broad and encompass a wide range of programs — from improving prenatal health care and early childhood education, to teaching parents techniques for dealing with problem behavior of their children, to youth employment opportunities. Programs which deal with high-risk youth should include family intervention. Research has indicated that young offenders are especially likely to have early involvement in high-risk behaviors (such as delinquency, substance abuse, and sex) and academic problems in school and to come from families with histories of dysfunctional behavior and lacking adequate parental - supervision and discipline. Although prevention efforts are praised by both the private and public sectors, funding for these programs has been unreliable and budgetary problems threaten to dismantle some existing projects. With violent crime rising while the resources available for law enforcement are limited, policy makers must pay closer attention to efforts to guide young people toward productive alternatives to gang and criminal behavior. Recreational, cultural, educational, and vocational programs must be considered as important as enforcement in dealing b See the Human Resources and Services Technical Document for crime date. `Urban America:Policy Choices for Los Angeks and the Nation,Rand, 1992,Santa Monica,Ca. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 7-13 Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services with juvenile problems. The most effective programs will be those that involve the various segments of the community in the design and delivery stages, including local service providers, the business and non-profit sectors, schools, parents, and youth. COMMENDATIONS • Preventive efforts should begin with improved early childhood care. • Programs should do the following: • Help families learn techniques in problem solving and teach parents how to deal with problem behavior of their children. • Actively engage children in community services at an early age. • Aim to prevent high-risk behavior, focusing on teaching children resistance skills and the motivation to use those skills. • Build positive links between youth, their community, and the educational system. • Organize youth groups to deal with the issues and problems facing them. • Prepare youth to participate successfully in the labor market. • Develop recreational and open space facilities so that more opportunities can be created for young people. • Funding for cooperative regional and subregional programs to prevent and reduce crime should receive high priority." F. INVESTMENT STRATEGIES FOR COMMUNITIES IN NEED Through community-wide efforts in cities throughout the nation, partnerships are being created among government agencies, nonprofit service organizations, the business community, and volunteers from universities and religious institutions for the purpose of"rebuilding communities." The Atlanta Project in Georgia and the Austin Project in Texas are examples of efforts to address the problems that afflict economically depressed families—school-age pregnancy and dropout rates, low-weight births, devellopmentally delayed children,juvenile delinquency, crime and violence, homelessness, drug abuse, and unemployment. Subregional input: Southeast Los Angeles County. Page 7-14 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services Local governments in Southern California are also attempting to address the economic and social challenges which have resulted from income and demographic changes. Using a set of strategic indicators (unemployment, poverty, lack of high school diploma, and lack of English proficiency), a SCAG study has identified communities in the region that are particularly in need to help the public, private, and non-profit sectors develop programs to meet the needs of residents in those communities! How can we transfer economically depressed communities into dynamic, successful and healthy entities with a skilled workforce? Three major goals are proposed to guide our future action: • Provide opportunities for individuals and families to achieve economic self sufficiency. • Equip children and youth with skills that will enable them to achieve their potential and contribute fully to the community. • Strengthen the links in the networks of organizations providing human services — public, private, and non-profit. GOAL I - Provide opportunities for individuals and families to achieve economic self-sufficiency. The projected increase of approximately 6 million residents in the SCAG region between now and the year 2010 means local governments face the challenge of providing services for more than 20 million people. As a region, we are faced with a number of serious issues. How do we protect our environment and accommodate the expected growth? How do we keep our economy healthy and meet air quality goals? How do we provide adequate and affordable housing to present and future residents and protect and enhance our open space? How do we ensure that individuals successfully meet economic and social challenges? RECOMMENDATIONS • Coordinate resources to provide more subsidized child care in disadvantaged communities. • Develop and promote programs that allow children from disadvantaged communities to have access to the educational, recreational, cultural, and economic opportunities of the region. _ • Expand programs that enable the disadvantaged populations to compete successfully in the labor market. • Establish one-stop service centers in disadvantaged communities for job information, training, and support services. e The Human Resources and Services Technical Background Document includes data by county on"communities in need." SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 7-15 1 Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services • Increase affordable housing options for low and moderate income persons in disadvantaged communities, including licensed affordable group homes and assisted living residences for the elderly. GOAL II - Equip children and youth with skills that will enable them to achieve their potential and contribute fully to the community. The Growth Management chapter of the RCP estimates 75 percent of the population growth during the next two decades will be due to children born since 1990. Many of these youths will not achieve their potential due to dropping out of school, teen pregnancy, and delinquent behavior. Prevention investments will allow at-risk youth to have alternative options to becoming the next generation of homeless, criminal offenders, and adults requiring public assistance. RECOMMENDATIONS • Promote mentoring programs and positive role modeling for children and youth at-risk. • Support involvement of young people in disadvantaged communities through leadership programs in each community. • Expand educational, cultural, and recreational programs in disadvantaged communities. • Through cooperative arrangements between the public, private, and non-profit sectors, provide youth in disadvantaged communities with practical work experience in vocational, technical, and professional skills for existing and new occupations. GOAL III - Strengthen the links in the networks of organizations providing human services — public, private, and non-profit. A fragmented human services system has not been able to provide easy access to the broad array of services and support mechanisms needed by the region's children to treat and, more importantly, to prevent their = problems. Most services are designed to address problems that have already occurred rather than to offer the necessary supports to prevent difficulties from developing. With limited resources available to support human services programs, there must be increased coordination and collaboration between local institutions and public and private agencies serving families and children to use available dollars to better advantage. RECOMMENDATIONS • Establish a regular system for reporting on the region's state of human service needs, programs, plans, and activities. Page 7-16 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Jowl. AN Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services • Establish a cooperative human services strategic planning process involving private and non-profit service providers, community representatives, business groups, and government officials. • Develop methods for assessing residents' satisfaction with the quality of services and effective feedback mechanism to ensure that concerns with services quality are promptly and properly addressed. • Establish permanent regional and local forums for public and private groups to meet and discuss current and emerging human services issues, problems, and solutions. • Establish specific, focused performance measures for human service programs in disadvantaged communities and conduct regular evaluations of their cost effectiveness. The National Civic League identified various communities throughout the nation which have been successful at developing techniques to improve the quality of life of their residents. All of these communities have recognized the interdependence among residents and the various sectors and have identified common goals to meet individual and community needs and aspirations. The League developed a theoretical framework for communities to deal with the complex challenges they face. A Civic Index provides a method to identify strengths and weaknesses and to structure collaborative approaches to solving shared problems. This Index includes the following components: citizen participation; community leadership; government performance; volunteerism and philanthropy; intergroup relations; civic education; community information sharing; capacity for cooperation and consensus building; community vision and pride; and inter-community cooperation. In its approach to improving community life, the League recognizes that all communities must develop new strategies and tools to get all members of the community to agree on a plan and then work together to achieve it. As the League points out, successful communities realize that no group succeeds unless the diverse needs of the entire community are met.' G. CONCLUSION Three of the major problems facing Southern California are a declining quality of the workforce due to _ weaknesses in the educational system, an exodus of companies from the region, and growing unrest and despair among minorities in economically depressed communities. And despair leads to crime and other destructive behavior. The choice is not whether to invest in the region's people, but how. The most effective solutions will be community-based. Solutions are going to spring from the experience, creativity and resources of the community—not edicts from public agencies. The local level is closer to the problems, closer to the people, and closer to the solutions. The way to address the problems facing the region's The Civic Index,The National Civic League, Inc., 1993. The National Civic League also offers a variety of programs designed to improve the quality of life and meet the specific health needs of communities. The World Health Organization defines a Healthy Community as one that includes a clean,safe, high- quality physical environment and a sustainable ecosystem; provision of basic needs; an optimum level of appropriate, high- quality, accessible public health and sick-care services;and a diverse,vital and innovative economy. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 7-17 Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services communities is to build effective partnerships among government, academia, labor, community groups, and the private sector. Neighborhoods throughout the region are increasingly experiencing rampant use of drugs, gangs, crime, and other social ills. By organizing around the issues important to residents, neighborhoods can create more stable communities that offer hope, opportunity, and needed services. Citizen participation gives residents a stake in the community, and this involvement is vital to a successful program. Through this process, citizens can become involved in planning their future and the future of their community, rather than being merely powerless recipients of programs from some detached bureaucratic source. The l;oal of community development is to empower communities to seize control of their future. Successful community development groups enable residents to set their own priorities and shape the process of community renewal. Locally-originated change generates positive consequences that go beyond visible improvements, including the development of indigenous leadership, the stimulation of increased outside investment, and the forging; of productive alliances among residents, local government and the business and philanthropic communities. Governments at all levels face a future constrained by tight budgets and widespread public skepticism whether social programs can work. To ensure that programs do not become too costly, the community has to work with the public and private sectors to maximize scarce resources. Business leaders often attack the state's regulations and worker's compensation system, which are in need of reform, for our economic woes. However, an economic strategy that denies the need for environmental or basic social protection is not appropriate for the region. Companies that insist on massive rollbacks of their tax or regulatory obligations to remain in California are unlikely to form long-term commitments to the state. Excessively rolling back environmental or other social programs is bad for business, as companies and individuals choose not to locate in certain areas due to concerns about environmental or social conditions. Maintaining quality of life .standards is essential for the region's business climate. All communities must have the capacity to provide for themselves and become self sustaining. Some communities need assistance to develop their institutional infrastructure and an expanded economic base to achieve these goals. The Economy chapter addresses the implications to the region of lack of action and recommends strategies for regional economic prosperity, including specific strategies for long-term investment in communities in need. There: must be a greater degree of interagency cooperation in the development and implementation of services = for diverse populations at community and regional level and partnerships between public and private agencies so that scarce resources can be more effectively targeted to address all issues of concern in the region. Education, affordable housing and skills development and job training for economic opportunity address the root causes of poverty and violence in the region. It is necessary to look beyond the symptoms and identify the causes of problems in order to solve them. H. ISSUES FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION • How do we develop adequate funding sources to address the gaps in services provided by public, private, and nonprofit agencies? Page? 7-18 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Q Chapter Seven • Human Resources and Services • As there are clear restrictions on the amount of money available for human services programs, how can existing funds be used more effectively, efficiently, and fairly? • How can effective program coordination mechanisms be developed throughout the region to integrate the efforts of all components of the services delivery system? • What other issues, such as health, do we need to address regionally? • How can we create a forum within subregions to address human resources and services issues? How do we develop relationships between subregions on a regional level? • How can SCAG's database and other resources be used to help those involved in Human Resources and Services in the region? What should be SCAG's function and role? _ r f F i SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 7-19 Ch �Jp � C� C� FINANCE • Introduction • Goals • Strategies (The presentation below is a summary of issues to be covered in the proposed chapter on finance. Due to the time it took to develop the direction for this component, it is not included here, but will be released later. The outline is given below.) A. INTRODUCTION The SCAG region is a formidable fiscal entity. In FY 1990-91, local governments in the State raised more revenues than the State itself, and Southern California accounted for about --- of that total. The finance component of the RCP will, for the first time, describe in a comprehensive manner the status of the region's public finances, including city, county, school and college district, special district, transportation agency and private contributions to infrastructure. It will also summarize the changes in public finance in the region during the past 10 years, and examine the changes in trends with respect to a series of measures of the fiscal health of the region. B. REGIONAL FINANCIAL GOALS SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 8-1 f Chapter Ten • Finance The finance component will identify a set of financial goals for the region which will flow from and support the overall goals of the RCP. Governments in the region provide essential services for their residents. The ability to maintain adequate service levels and to plan for the future depends on the ability of these governments to raise the necessary revenues in a predictable and responsible manner. The current economic recession and the budgetary problems of the State have severely challenged the ability of all governments in the region. These governments have struggled to raise additional revenues through user charges, fees and exactions on development„ and strategies to promote land uses which provide the greatest promise of generating additional sales tax revenues. This "fiscal ization" of land use directly challenges the effort of the RCP to plan physical growth in a rational manner while taking into account federal and state requirements to improve the environment, particularly air quality. C. STRATEGIES Like, other components of the RCP, the Finance component will outline a series of strategies which will allow the region to meet its public finance goals. These may include informational strategies, which recommend the creation and/or distribution of information about the region's anticipated financial condition, and operational policies which provide a basis for prudent and responsible fiscal decision-making. In turn, the operational policies may include recommendations for incremental changes in existing financial policies and patterns to address current problems; for fundamental changes in the Current regional finance systems; and for major reforms which over an extended period of time might lead to new patterns of revenue raising and/or expenditure. Page 8-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Ch � � C� C� s_ OPEN SPACE AND CONSERVATION • Introduction • Open Space Attributes • Goals and Intent • Methodology, Mapping and Approach • Background • Issues, Goals and Strategies A. INTRODUCTION The population of the SCAG region is expected to increase from its 1993 base of 15 million to 20.5 million in 2010, 22.1 million in 2015 and 23.7 million in 2020. The development needs associated with the additional growth, particularly for housing, economic activities, and facilities, will consume a significant portion of the remaining vacant land in the region. Some of the lands planned for urban development are currently devoted to agriculture, mining, outdoor recreation, and other open space uses. Some are critical linkages between habitats and are essential for the continued viability of some ecosystems in the region. The Open Space and Conservation chapter is intended to educate the public on the contribution of open space resources to the quality of life of the region's residents, and to help local governments in this planning in such a way as to provide for both the region's need for-housing,jobs and open space resources. The chapter identifies opportunities and constraints for future development and provides a framework for conflict resolution when development needs are incongruent with resource protection, production, outdoor recreation, and other open space needs. This chapter includes the following: • An inventory of regionally significant open space resources and an assessment of their continued viability in view of the potential impacts of future growth and development. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 9-1 Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation • A framework for addressing potential issues between development and open space needs. • Strategies for better coordination of open space and land-use planning. • An assessment of potential institutional and funding options for the planning, acquisition and management of open space resources. B. OPEN SPACE ATTRIBUTES This chapter focuses on four major types of open space—areas set aside for outdoor recreation, public safety, resource production, and resource protection. The cumulative result of the four types may provide a system of greenbelt around and within communities or subregions. The goals and strategies contained in this chapter are focused on the four types of open space defined below. 1. Outdoor Recreation: These include areas of outstanding scenic, historic, and cultural value; areas suited for outdoor recreation activities, including lake shores, beaches, rivers, and streams; and areas serving as links between major recreation and preservation areas, including utility easements, trails, and scenic highway corridors. The region is surrounded by the national forests, the Mojave and Sonora deserts to the north and the Pacific Ocean to the south. Land areas in this category currently fall under the jurisdictional control of many public and private agencies. This chapter emphasizes the need for coordinated allocation of resources for maximum effectiveness. 2. Public Health and Safety: These are areas requiring special management or regulation because of hazardous or special conditions such as earthquake fault zones, areas with unstable soil, flood plains, watersheds, areas presenting high fire risks, areas required for the protection of water quality and water reservoirs, areas under air spaces used by civilian and military aircraft, and areas required for the protection and enhancement of air quality. The chapter identifies these areas, and emphasizes the need for regional policies for the protection of people and property consistent with existing state law. The long-term cost of extending infrastructure facilities to these areas and the cost of providing adequate safety to lives and properties should guide the decision to allow development in these areas. 3. Resource Production: These are areas designated for the production of crops, fisheries, timber, and mineral resources; and sites and corridors for the production and transmission of energy and utilities. Land resources in this category are most vulnerable to urban development. The cost of water, encroachment of urban development, and current tax laws, (Williamson Act), are some of the factors _ influencing the conversion of resource production lands, including agricultural lands, to urban development. The chapter contains strategies for long-term management of resource production lands. 4. Resource Protection: These are areas set aside for the protection and management of natural habitats for species identified as rare, threatened, or endangered (or-could become so). Such areas offer valuable research and educational opportunities for improved management expertise and human understanding. Much of Southern California's biological diversity has been lost during the past several decades. ]Future development necessitated by the predicted growth in the region will place demands on the remaining resources. As currently implemented, the state and federal Endangered Species Acts regarding the listing of rare, threatened or endangered species, create uncertainty and contention for developers, environmentalists and governments. This chapter provides the framework Page 9-2 • December 1993 SCAG Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan sir+` Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation to balance the development needs of the region with the needs to protect and preserve designated species and their habitats. The cumulative result of the four types of open space described above may result in a regional greenbelt system if planning efforts are coordinated. Greenbelts are areas set aside to define and separate the different subregions or communities in Southern California, and to provide psychological relief. The region's national parks and forests act as a regional greenbelt, but such definition is absent at the subregional and local levels. Many communities in the region currently implement greenbelt policies but no regional policies exist for the coordination and integration of these areas to form a coherent open space link. The chapter identifies opportunities for such coordination. C. GOALS In order to support the overall goals, particularly the goals of enhancing the quality of life for the region's residents and providing fair and equitable access, the following open space goals are described: • Provide adequate land resources to meet the outdoor recreation needs of the present and future residents in the region and to promote tourism in the region. • Provide easy accessibility to open space lands for outdoor recreation. • Promote self-sustaining regional recreation resources and facilities. • Maintain open space for adequate protection to lives and properties against natural and man-made hazards: o Minimize developments in hillsides, canyons, areas susceptible to flooding, wildfire and other known hazards, and areas with limited access for emergency equipments. o Minimize public expenditure for infrastructure and facilities to support urban type uses in areas where public health and safety could not be guaranteed. • Maintain adequate viable resource production lands, particularly lands devoted to commercial agriculture and mining operations. • Develop well-managed viable ecosystems or known habitats of rare, threatened and endangered species, including wetlands. The goals emphasize the contribution of open space resources to the economy of the region, the quality of its environment, and the safety and security of its residents. The relationship of the Open Space and Conservation chapter to the other chapters of the RCP are discussed below: SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 9-3 C Oft Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation 1 . RELATIONSHIP TO THE GROWTH MANAGEMENT, HOUSING, AND THE ECONOMY The potential impacts of housing and economic development activities necessitated by future growth on the region's ecosystems, including its open space resources emphasize the need for the Open Space and Conservation chapter. Decisions regarding the location of housing and other economic activities, and the siting of needed facilities should be made with the understanding of their potential impacts on open space resources. The current practice of planning for individual species has proved expensive and time consuming for land owners and developers, and is often cited as one of the reasons for the higher cost for housing and other economic activities in the region. The chapter recommends multiple habitat planning; better cooperation between land owners and local agencies responsible for land-use development decisions; better coordination among the agencies with land management responsibilities and between the subregions; and, equitable funding sources for resource preservation and management with the goal of minimizing the negative effects of ecosystem management on economic development activities in the region. The outdoor recreation needs of the region will increase in direct relation to the region's predicted growth. With a larger proportion of dne workforce in the professional category, the need for outdoor recreation uses will increase. The chapter underscores coordination of all land use planning and development activities. 2. RELATIONSHIP TO THE AIR, WATER, INTEGRATED WASTE, ENERGY, AND WATER QUALITY These chapters have indirect impacts on the distribution of future growth and land-use/development activities in the region. They influence the region's urban form. In so doing, these chapters indirectly affect the extent to which future development will encroach on the region's ecosystem. The siting of water, waste water, and solid waste disposal facilities may have impacts on open space resources. These facilities should be developed in such a way as to minimize their negative impacts on open space uses, and allow for their subsequent conversion to some type of open space uses. When feasible, energy transmission corridors should be designed as links between habitats. This chapter promotes multiple-use of resources when economically feasible and practical. 3. RELATIONSHIP TO MOBILITY Pursuant to Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA), the siting and routing of transportation facilities should avoid open space resources, including parklands, and wetlands. The potential impacts of transportation facilities on open space resources have to be examined in the environmental documentation for the transportation project, and appropriate mitigation measures have to be implemented to reduce impacts to levels on non-significance. Transportation facilities also influence the spatial arrangement of land uses the location as well as the intensity of land development. Extension of new corridors into rural areas for example, can accelerate the rate of development in those areas. The policies in the Regional Mobility chapter have significant ramifications on the future of open space resources in the region; the chapter influences most land-use decisions, and therefore, the extent to which future development will impact open space resources. Potential encroachment of urban development and viable open space lands could be minimized by focusing transportation investment on areas where such potential negative impacts are minimal. This chapter will complement efforts underway between federal agencies, including Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and the Corps of Engineers, and Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to streamline 404 permit requirements for transportation projects. This Chapter includes mapped information on regionally significant open space areas in the region and this would form the basis for evaluating the potential Page 9-4 • December 1993 SCAG Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation impacts of proposed transportation facilities on plant and animal life. Identification of potential encroachment of facilities included in the Regional Mobility Element at the system level will allow adequate time to redefine the scope, alignment or geometry of the facility. An MOU is being developed to expedite subsequent permitting requirements for transportation projects consistent with the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) developed by MPOs. In SCAG's case, the RTP is the Mobility Element. C. STRATEGIES FOR DEVELOPMENT The Open Space and Conservation chapter focuses on regionally significant open space resources, including noted habitats of rare, threatened and endangered species. The open space attributes dealt with are consistent with those required for local general plans. This is to facilitate ease of use for subsequent planning and environmental analysis. The major categories covered are: outdoor recreation; public safety, resource production, and resource production. The degree to which future growth will encroach on these resources is determined by overlaying the planned spatial pattern of the region on areas currently perceived as open or vacant. Open space resources and habitats at risk are thus identified, and strategies to deal with potential future conflicts between development and open space needs are presented. The chapter focuses on market- based strategies rather than regulatory command and control requirements, which over the years have not proved to be as effective. The chapter presents the most current information available from various sources, including federal, state, and local resources and land management agencies. Some of the information on vegetation was obtained from the "GAP" analysis program developed by University of California, Santa Barbara. Some of the pertinent information was converted to geographic information system, compatible with Arch Info format. Areas with information gaps can be addressed in future iterations of the plan. The strategies can be grouped into three major categories: • Systemic approach: focuses on the interrelationships between open space resources and peoples' quality of life. Understanding the potential effects of an action requires looking beyond local impacts, with an eye toward the relationship of a local resource to the larger regional needs. Local jurisdictions should plan their open space uses to complement those of adjacent jurisdictions. To achieve this objective and the goals identified above, the region should consider innovative institutional and organizational arrangements deemed more effective than the current parochial, regulatory approach. This chapter emphasizes the need to coordinate the planning and management responsibilities of the many agencies and entities involved with open space issues, and land-use planning and development in the region. Better information, planning and cooperation among jurisdictions will put resource information in the best light and framework for decision-making. The approach recommends ecosystem scale planning involving all areas and jurisdictions with common concerns as well as land owners, conservation agencies and interest groups. Resulting plans should be comprehensive and should include trade-offs between conservation and development, acquisition measures and protocols for project processing and mitigation. This approach will, in the long-term, streamline project review process and reduce costs associated with such reviews including environmental mitigation costs. It also provides all interests with greater.predictability for land-uses, and improved methodology to assess the cumulative impacts of proposed projects. • Market-based approach: This approach focuses on methodology to assess the true value of open space resources and the cost of land development. This information will help guide decisions to convert a vacant land to other uses. Criteria will be developed to determine the viability of the SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 9-5 Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation ecosystems in the region and the suitability of a site for urban development. Information presented to make this decision should include the following: o Known economic benefits (of the land resource, undeveloped and developed). o _Implied economic benefits (of the resource and the proposed project). o Public cost to provide facilities and services to the site if developed, and to provide special relief if in hazard-prone areas. o Planning, environmental mitigation, and legal costs. o Other miscellaneous costs. This approach emphasizes the need to assess the sum-total of all costs associated with a project and it to the net economic and implied',benefits of the project upon completion, to determine the reasonableness of the proposed project. The cost-benefit analysis approach will allow for informed and cost effective land use decisions. The approach notes the following: o Certain resource production lands are best left undeveloped; agricultural, mineral, recreation, tourism enhancing, and other productive and economic lands may be more economically valuable left in open space. o The public cost to provide services and/or relief to hazard prone areas and the potential threat to lives and properties in these areas may make development in these areas unacceptable public risk. Stich areas may be best left undeveloped. o Certain sensitive habitats and linkages should be left undeveloped to avoid major mitigation costs, special studies, long environmental processes, recovery planning for listed species, and litigation. o The social and psychological benefits of open space resources are often ignored when making land use decisions. Factoring these benefits into land use discussions will lead to better-informed decisions. O Investments in infrastructure will be focused in such a way as to limit encroachment of urban development on open space resources. o Multiple use of open space resources and other land uses is beneficial in limiting the rite of land consumption. o Proactive planning for open space resources will reduce development costs and unnecessary delays to project development. • Public Funding/Private Incentives: To achieve the goals identified in the chapter, funding for the acquisition and management of open space resources has to be identified. Developers, land owners and new residents have traditionally borne a greater burden of the cost to acquire open space resources. For effective implementation, the public sector may have to accept a larger role. The chapter identifies feasible funding strategies and other incentives that could be employed to achieve the region's desired objectives. Some of the funding sources available for open space planning, acquisition and management are listed below: Pape 9-6 • December 1993 SCAG Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation o Federal sources—Land and Water Conservation Fund (LWCF), Wetlands Reserve Program, Conservation Reserve Program, Farmers Home Administration Conservation Easements, grants, land exchanges. (Of the $900 million authorized for LWCF each year, only about $200 million is actually spent, most going for federal acquisitions. Many agencies from throughout the country compete for these funds, but the cumulative total of all the unspent authorized fund could sustain the land acquisition needs of the nation for several years. LWCF may not be a stable source of funds for planning, management, and monitoring.) o State sources—The California Wildlife, Coastal, and Park Land Conservation Act of 1988; California Wildlife Protection Act of 1990; Environmental License Plate Fund Grants; California Environmental Enhancement and Mitigation Program. o Local Sources, including mitigation fees, open space districts and assessments. Other potential sources: • Federal—Real Estate Transfer Tax. Step up current small scale exchanges within federal units to include massive desert-coastal land exchange program. This would see lower value current open space federal lands traded for higher value current open space private lands and bring a federal resource management presence into the coastal area. o State—Documentary, real estate taxes, lottery proceeds, bond initiatives, oil and gas revenues. • Regional/Local—assessment district(s), transfer of development rights, donations, purchase by conservancies, user fees (utilities, highways, landfills,'recreation sites), real estate transfer, facility-use fees, acquisition of tax-delinquent parcels, exchanges, access to LWCF (This federal program supports federal, state, and local governments in acquisitions for recreation and habitat protection. Most LCWF allocations have been to federal agencies.) r • Government-offered incentives for landowners keeping land in open space. Some of the programs currently exist, but may have to be revised and refined to be more effective. For example, Williamson Act provides some protection for open space and agriculture lands, but as currently implemented, the act does not ensure long-term protection of those resources. Other programs and laws that could be refocussed include the following: • Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) • Water pricing/allocation policy. C • Private party participation in open space programs, either for tax advantage or profit. • Laws and guidelines for Conservancies, Land Trusts, etc. • Short_-term and long term tax reduction/writedown policy. • Land banking policy. E. BACKGROUND The population of the Southern California region is expected to increase by more than 5 million between 1994 to 2010. The predicted growth is greater than the current population of Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, and Ventura counties combined. If current development trend is assumed, the physical size of the developed portion of the region will be 33 percent larger than its current size. Urban-type land uses and facilities SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 0 Page 9-7 Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation needed for the additional growth will consume a large proportion of the remaining privately held lands in the region. Some of these lands are currently devoted to uses like mining and agriculture, both of which contribute significantly to the region's gross domestic product and local tax base, and some are used for outdoor recreation. (Mining and agriculture generated $2.5 billion [1991] and $2.8 billion [1992] respectively.) Some are critical linkages essential for the survival of certain species or ecosystems in the region. The region added approximately 3 million people during the past decade necessitating the construction of 870,000 housing units (87,000 per year). These new residential units and the supporting economic and employment activities were developed in areas previously "perceived" as open space resources. The trend to convert vacant lands to urban development is expected to continue through 2010 and beyond. Indiscriminate conversion of lands to urban development may lead to the destruction of some of the critical ecosystems and sensitive habitats in the region. Both the federal and state governments will likely impose more stringent resource protection and conservation requirements on the region, if development activities threaten the viability of any species or their habitats. Developers and land owners determine the rate of develiopment. This chapter is intended to be a framework to guide the location of future growth and the developments required to accommodate that growth in such a way as to lessen the detrimental impacts of the growth on the region and its land resources. California's flora and fauna are unique in the world. The state contains 25 percent of all the plant species of North America; 30 percent: (1,758) of the plant species are endemic (i.e., are found no where else). Southern California in turn contains 50 percent of California's habitat types, has 50 percent of the 108 California listed threatened and endangered species, and 320 species of plants and animals that are candidates for listing. The combination of uniqueness and threat makes California one of the 18 ecological "hot spots" of the world, the only one that is in the United States. The prevailing requirements for resource conservation and protection imposed on the region by both the federal and state governments have often been cited as one of the reasons for the higher cost of housing and business in the region. Both levels of governments maintain listings of rare, threatened, and endangered species, and require implementing agencies, including local governments to develop policies for their protection. The federal listing for the region currently includes 46 species of plants and animals, including the California Gnatcatcher„ Desert Tortoise, and Stephen's Kangaroo Rat. Until recently, affected jurisdictions and land management agencies developed plans for the protection of individual species on either the federal or state registers. During the past decade for example, plans were developed for the Desert Tortoise, Big-horn Sheep, Kangaroo Rat, and, recently, the Gnatcatcher and the Coastal Wren. In recent years, attention has shifted from planning for individual species to multi-habitats and ecosystems. Planning for individual species has not proved as effective in protecting the listed species, and the implementation of the resources protection policies is perceived by land owners and developers as one of the reasons for the - high cost of housing and doing business in the region. These groups equate resources protection policies to project delays and expensive mitigation measures—higher costs for housing and doing business. For better and effective approach to resource management, the state recently initiated a statewide strategy to conserve biodiversity. The State Resources Agency initiated the creation of the State Biodiversity Executive Council in 1991. SCAG represents the Southern California region on this Council. The Biodiversity Executive Council is expected to develop a framework for ecosystem planning, a shift from the current focus on individual species. Current efforts on Natural Communities Conservation Plans (NCCP) and the multi- habitat planning underway in some parts of the region are an outgrowth of the Biodiversity Initiative. NCCPs may ultimately be developed for all the ecosystems present in all three SCAG's bioregions: (the South West, covering the land area between the mountain ridge and the Pacific Ocean; the Mojave Desert, covering the northern desert portion of the region; and the Sonora Desert, covering the southern desert. The Open Space and Conservation chapter focuses attention on the following: an effective transition from species-focused to Page 9-8 • December 1993 SCAG Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation ecosystem-focused policy strategies; better coordination among various agencies with land management responsibility; a balance between development needs and the needs to protect valuable resources and ecosystems; better coordination with prevailing land use law; and, a more stable and equitable funding system for resource management. This is consistent with the focus of NCCPs. California Government Code § 65302 et seq. requires a local jurisdiction's general plan include policies for the preservation and protection of open space and agricultural lands, and the conservation of essential natural resources. Each city in the SCAG region is required to maintain a current general plan with seven mandatory elements, including land use, housing, transportation, open space and conservation. The law accords the open space and conservation elements equal status with the other five elements (see the California Court of Appeal in Sierra Club v. Kern County (1981) 126 Cal.App.3d 698, where the judge voided a precedence clause that gave a land-use element priority over an open space element on the grounds it violated Government Code Section 65300.5 requiring elements of a general plan carry equal status and be internally consistent). The Open Space and Conservation chapter provides the framework for coordinating multiple- habitat plans such as NCCPs with local general plans. In 1977, SCAG published a regional Conservation and Open Space Plan. This plan addressed the issues facing the region in terms of conservation of natural resources and preservation of open space areas and sensitive ecological areas. The lack of coordination among the various agencies with land management responsibilities in the region limited the effectiveness of the plan. These agencies have to respond to variable and often conflicting mandates. Although the plan has not been revised since its adoption, open space issues continue to be addressed in local general plans and in the-plans prepared by Federal Department of the Interior and Agriculture, the State Department of Resources, and many private companies with large land holdings in the region. Examples of plans and initiatives currently underway or recently completed in the SCAG region include the following: Western Riverside County — Nearly the entire western portion of the County is under conservation planning, initially for the Stephen's Kangaroo Rat. The study has been expanded to the Gnatcatcher and is evolving into a multiple species program. $30,000,000 has been raised for habitat acquisition through development impact fees of$2,000 per acre. This planning effort is to a large extent consistent with the goals of NCCP. Policies in the Riverside County plan are consistent with some of the strategies included in this chapter. The Wester Riverside Council Of Governments (WRCOG) and the County of Riverside are involved in this effort. Orange County—The County and private landowners have together enrolled about 80,000 acres of coastal sage scrub and other habitats into the NCCP program. This voluntary approach is perceived more effective and equitable by all interests. The Orange County effort is consistent with some of the strategies in this chapter. State of California—The State Department of Fish and Game, in partnership the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, have been coordinating the development of NCCPs and multi-habitat plans across the state. These agencies work in partnership with local jurisdictions and major land owners in these efforts. U.S. Bureau of Land Management—The U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is developing coordinated ecosystem management plans involving many jurisdictions and resource values on about 15 million acres in the California desert with the Desert Tortoise as focal point. ' SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 9-9 Chapter Nine 0 Open Space and Conservation Most of the efforts underway are focussed exclusively on biodiversity. To be more effective and comprehensive, they should be expanded to consider the other open space attributes and explore the feasibility of multiple uses of some of the areas set aside for resource protection. This chapter is not intended to replace these efforts but to provide a framework for their coordination for maximum effectiveness. 1 . JURISDICTIONAL CONTROL OF LAND IN THE REGION Most of the land in Southern California (approximately 65 percent) is administered by agencies of the federal government, including the BLM, the U.S. Forest Service, the Department of Defense, and the Park Service (see Figure 9-1). Catellis and the railroad industry owns approximately 11 percent, leaving less than 25 percent in private ownership (see Figure 9-2). Most of the privately held lands in the coastal part of the region is already developed (see Figure 9-3). Growth projections indicate that nearly all of the remaining privately held lands in the coastal valleys will be developed (see Figure 9-4). Significant development pressures can also be expected in the outlying areas on lands currently "perceived" as open space. The additional growth will further strain the capacity of existing state and national parks and public campgrounds, which are already showing signs of overuse. In recent years many of the public campgrounds have not been able to accommodate the demand of potential users particularly during holidays. Simultaneous with urb-mization pressures on private lands is increasing protection and preservation pressures on public lands—particularly the 15 million acres of desert and mountains that the BLM and the U.S. Forest Service manage. Political and environmental initiatives for more wilderness, parkland and habitat protection are foreclosing many traditional public land uses that will have to be accommodated somewhere else. F. OPEN SPACE ISSUES, GOALS, AND STRATEGIES This chapter focusses on four major types of open space resources for outdoor recreation, for public safety, for production of agriculture and minerals, and for protection of ecosystem and biodiversity. The four categories are consistent with those required of local general plans. In each of the areas there are a set of strategies presented to address the goals defined above. The strategies are put in the context of several issues that have been identified for the four resource types. 1 . OUTDOOR RECREATION, TRAILS AND CULTURAL RESOURCES People need areas for outdoor recreation. Many people in the SCAG region do not have enough places and variety of opportunities or access to such places due to distance and poor public transportation. As the population grows, the deficit will increase. Not having such places and opportunities lowers the quality of life and invites societal ills. Presently, the deficit is greatest in the urban-core areas. To the extent that urban centers become more dense, the greater the demand will be for outdoor recreation areas that are easily accessible. The diversity of opportunity offered by landform and ocean, proximity of vast public lands, and fa\ :gable climate bless the SCAG region with fairly good resources and opportunities considering the size of the population. One of the biggest current shortages is in city neighborhood facilities. A recent public opinion survey done for the State Department of Parks and Recreation indicates the following: Paige 9-10 • December 1993 SCAG Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation • Eighty-eight percent of Californians consider having adequate places and facilities for recreation as important to enhancing their quality of life. • Eighty percent of Californians spend time in natural or undeveloped areas. • Seventy percent of Californians expressed the need for more outdoor recreation areas and facilities in and near cities. • Ninety-four percent of Californians felt it is important to protect important natural areas. • Seventy-five percent of Californians recognized the contribution of open space resources to the economy and the potential growth in employment opportunities in tourist industry. • Sixty-six percent of Californians felt having easy accesibility to recreation resouces and facilities enhances property values and neighborhood quality of life. Issues: 1. The urban SCAG region is quantitatively and qualitatively deficient in regional recreation and trail opportunities. The demand is unique for the number of people and wide array of ethnicities and other social characteristics. The gap between demand and provided opportunities will increase with increased population and become more difficult to close with future open space losses and environmental/political foreclosure of certain types of uses on public lands. continued shortfall may result in the depreciation of residents' quality of life. 2. An inadequate supply of opportunities, especially in the urban core, does the following: • More pressure on biodiversity areas from displaced, unmanaged uses. • More pressure upon outlying jurisdictions (where there is more open space) to provide more. • Inadequate investment in public transportation to the existing open space areas, thereby exacerbating reliance on private transportation. • The distance of the available resources limits accessibility of the poor. 3. No state or regional vision or standard exists to guide and assess the adequacy of recreation and trail programs of jurisdictions, individually and collectively, for both residents and tourists. 4. Existing sites are often filled to capacity creating management problems. 6. Special attention should continue to be focussed on historical and cultural sites (prehistoric and historic Native-American occupation and burial). 7. Current redevelopment efforts do not include outdoor recreation needs in the urban core as a priority development type. Redevelopment practices should be reevaluated to address outdoor recreation. This will become even more important as the region looks beyond the 2010 planning horizon. 8. Recreation trails programs of individual jurisdictions and utility companies and other holders of rights-of-way are not coordinated to provide regional trail opportunities. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 9-11 o� u 00 ! Ir w 1 I I��iijljl I I ( I ' II �I'�,Iijl11 l I 1 II ;� j;: •;t. 1 I !' ll III. I Ilt I ':: " • I I I - 1! '..�Illlil!I111 II .I !Iliilii�ill I ' III. ' • , III a ' l I'll I illilli i IiII li.•i••i•.i I = 1 1 1 1 II 11�11���•• � I I I it j I I 'It�lllil►Illllllltll�llll�� —� ( I • 'h �� � I IIII I�litljl�lilli�• _—� ( IIII Illlll�jiiill ;'•i'•) I _ _till • I ' I I r ( I 1111 • I I I:I�Illllili'�i' I. 1 —: ;'�I�I• ( ' t�•:•: l i l 4 I I I , III I I _;;,' ( . ..::•:•:IIII I � I I ' t I I ;•I�Illlll�;i, •.;II � :'I:;II' I I o ' Illij .�...••� V Adam I I .1 - II I I I I � lilllll' •. _ f.t I •. ,I o \\ \\\���l; ep .�• ,III I I ,•. �\, �,;, Illllli�jll II,I• I 11 •.t . �� , I Q • �Ilt I !III!'' ;:,,;;;I•I'tll;, .1'111. ���` � i \ - •— E v� \` H �4j O• C O N V t > C V V C\ O O N Cl- �, •— v .ac c rn CH — o � -- •C ® m O) V N Wl IV QL to _ u ^o � � w � a C j - _ C ' v .o o � ci d -j N 1i Z rw /V� 1 � A b�D w Ste C `YO � ..a cb � Q > o C O o > o v •- 2 c 0 v v - > e} o o w v a • y 44� Of / 11 W/I jam/ //'�:•�i.�: 1 1 Ork Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation - Goal[: Provide adequate land resources to meet the outdoor recreation needs of present and future residents, and to promote tourism in the region. o Easy accessibility to open space lands for outdoor recreation. o Self-sustaining regional recreation resources and facilities. Strategies: 1. SCAG through the subregions initiate a regionwide vision-setting process that would guide and coordinate individual Southern California jurisdictions and the private sector in their public recreation programs. A tie to ecosystem planning is necessary for both conflict identification and resolution and multiple use opportunities. 2. To provide more opportunities closer to urban cores, multiple use of spaces should be allowed as feasible and practical and redevelopment activities should focus some investment on recreation uses 3. Recreation facilities, both passive and active should be considered an important resource in youth development initiatives (see Chapter 7). Government and broader societal expenditure priorities should reflect this opportunity. 4. Transportation systems should be directed to regional recreation centers and major trailheads. 5. Jurisdictions covering areas that include trails and trail segments determined to be regional significant should amend their local plans to recognize and support regional trail networks. Joint use of utility, transportation and other rights-of-way, greenbelts and biodiversity areas should be considered and encouraged. The Mobility chapter of the plan should develop a trail program that links the recreational and open space resources in the region. 6. Southern California jurisdictions should work as partners to address regional outdoor recreation needs of the region and to acquire the necessary funding for the implementation of their plans and programs. 7. SCAG should establish a regional recreation council of local, subregional, state and federal jurisdictions for continuity in dialogue, pooling of expertise and information, and mutual aid in modeling, management and monitoring of sites, establishing continuity of contact with public needs and attitudes and other follow-through from strategy No. 1 above. This could be done under specific, separate agreements or affiliation of key state and federal jurisdictions with SCAG. 8. Applicable SCAG-region jurisdictions, including the Region's University systems, cooperatively work toward the following: • develop candidate cultural areas for protection and public education; 0 identify (with Native-Americans), areas important for local materials collection and other uses and held sacred. These areas should be considered on their own and in conjunction with other open space planning for retention as permanent open space. 9. SCAG initiate research to create stronger support for economic investment in recreation opportunities for tourism and to achieve social needs. Such information would be used to develop cost -benefit analyses in weighing how much open space land to dedicate to outdoor recreation Page 9-16 • December 1993 SCAG Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation 10. SCAG and the subregions research the complexity of funding opportunities (Section C above) for recreation planning, acquisition, management, and monitoring as well as incentives to private landowners for participation where possible to minimize the acquisition burden). Large amounts of capital will be needed in aggregate on a sustained basis to cover planning, implementation, and monitoring. The funding should be largely publicly provided. The strategy should include State and federal jurisdictions, especially for regional needs. Implement what can be done through local authorities and initiatives and work with state and federal jurisdictions and elected officials for the remainder. (This strategy is similar to that for Resource Protection). 11. The Regional Advisory Council should take the lead in encouraging all jurisdictions to promote privatization and volunteerism and other support for as many site needs as possible through interest groups, rehabilitation programs, schools, and businesses for one-time needs and long term "adoption" to help create a more understanding and caring public for public spaces. 2. SAFETY AND HAZARD AREAS (See the State of the Region Report prepared for the RCP EIR for full discussion of Safety and Hazard Areas) Southern California has many natural hazards to cope with. • All low-elevation native vegetation is extremely flammable and even dependent upon fire for its ecological life cycles. • The Los Angeles Basin has the highest potential for a large amount of rainfall in a short period of time as anywhere in the country. Foothills and steep, rock slopes bring enormous amounts of water into the floodplain. • Coastal Southern California is geologically very young with significant seismic activity and unstable soils. Most jurisdictions in the region have extensive inventory on hazards and hazard prone areas. Prevailing state laws seem to provide guidance on developing in hazard-prone areas. The reality is the following: • Extensive development exists in hazard areas; sometimes catastrophes occur. • The periods between big catastrophes are usually long enough that the memory fades; and more development gets permitted in hazard areas, thereby increasing the potential for more catastrophes. • In spite of the human and fiscal tragedies that occur in hazard prone areas, permits to rebuild in these areas are often granted, without adequate assessment of the adequacy of the applicable development and building standards. Without adequate development and building standards, the potential remains for future catastrophic occurrences. • The region has variable degrees of hazards, fire, flood, landslide, seismic, airport, etc., each requiring different types of planning. SCA G • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 9-17 Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation Issue: 1. Areas with man-made and environmental safety implications have been developed, continue to be developed, or are encroached upon. Over the years, lives and properties have been lost, and billions -of dollars-have been expended building and rebuilding. As more hazardous areas are built and encroached upon, the tragedy frequency increases. Goal: Adequate protection to lives and properties against natural and man-made hazards: O Minimize developments in hillsides, canyons, areas susceptible to flooding, wildfire and other known hazards, and areas with limited access for emergency equipment. o Minimize public expenditure for infrastructure and facilities to support urban type uses in areas where public health and safety could not be guaranteed. Strategies: 1. SCAG and subregions develop a regional hazards inventory and risk rating system to be used in various urban, ecosystem, and recreation planning efforts. 2. SCAG collaborate with the U.S. Forest Service, California Division of Forestry and Fire Protection, and University of California at Berkeley for the development of fire models for natural, rural and urban-interface areas to aid in the development of land use planning, ecosystem management and urban development design criteria. 3. The true social and economic costs of building in hazard areas should be reflected in local land use planning and decisions; policies of local, state, and federal jurisdictions; and insurance company rate bases. 4. Landowners should be required to bear the cost of providing fund infrastructure and other services required in high risk hazard areas, including initial construction, maintenance, reconstruction, and rehabilitation costs. 5. SCAG through subregions develop criteria to guide local jurisdictions in acquisitions of private lands or the development rights to private lands if, in the long-run, the acquisition of an area is determined to be less expensive than converting the area to a more intense use. The criteria should help indicate when the public cost to support development in hazard-prone areas becomes unacceptable. 3. RESOURCE PRODUCTION a. Agriculture Farming was once the mainstay of the region's economy and still is quite important in Imperial, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura counties. Agricultural production in 1992 was $2.8 billion in the SCAG region and 'helps to keep the region's (and the state's and nation's) economy diverse and buffered from economic downturns in other sectors. Given the nature and amount of Prime, Statewide, and Unique soils and the area's climate, the SCAG region is one of the great agricultural areas of the world. Land left in farming is less demanding of infrastructure and services. The economy of the SCAG region is less healthy today with the loss of agriculture and increase in service costs than it once was. Retention of agriculture in different Page 9-18 • December 1993 SCAG Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation regional centers is important to the country as more agricultural centers buffer the adverse effects of a seasonal regional agricultural catastrophes. As valuable and important as they are for agriculture, these lands can sell for more money for urban develop than for agricultural use, especially along the agricultural-urban interface. Aggravating the conversion trend are extensions and availability of infrastructure, lack of regional perspective of the true value of agriculture, weak or non-supporting regulations, the price and availability of water (50 percent of Southern California water goes into yards and gardens), and conflicts between urban and agricultural uses. As the population increases, demand for conversion will increase. Retention of an agricultural industry is fairly strong in Ventura, Imperial and parts of Riverside Counties because it enjoys strong support in inventory, planning, regulation,jurisdictional leadership and, perhaps most importantly, public caring. Issue: 1. Agricultural land has been and continues to be converted to urban development. 2. The agriculture-urban interface creates use compatibility problems. 3. The price of water makes agricultural uses prohibitive in some areas. b. Minerals The SCAG region contains significant mineral deposits. Many of its minerals are considered nationally strategic. Production in 1991 in the SCAG region was $1 billion, 40 percent of the production of the entire state. Current and future environmental, urbanization and political initiatives apply and will continue to apply pressure on areas with significant mineral. The most significant current pressures are from urbanization in coastal sand and gravel areas and various preservation initiatives on federal public lands (see figure 9-5). The region is extremely rich in aggregates, but approximately 90 percent have been lost to existing development or are in river flood plains where environmental problems preclude their extraction. Orange and Los Angeles are import Counties and most of the aggregates from all active coastal area quarries will be depleted in the next half dozen years. New materials will have to be unit trained from distant sites on the desert side of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains or from sources even more distant. When transported by truck, the cost of materials doubles for every 20 miles they are hauled. Except for alluvial deposits near the high coastal mountains the rest of the desert is poor or very limited in sand and gravel. Issues: 1. Construction industry aggregates are becoming lost to urbanization in coastal Southern California 2. Mining—urban use interface creates visual, aesthetics and noise problems. 3. Mineral resources issues do not get adequate attention under current land use planning practices. The existing state laws for the protection of essential mineral resources may need to be strengthened. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 9-19 Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation - Goal: Maintain adequate viable resource production lands, particularly devoted to commercial agriculture and mining operations. Strategies: 1. SCAG and subregions develop relevant inventory and information on the location of minerals and soils suitable for agriculture, nature and value of agricultural and mineral production and their contribution to the region's economy. The information should be made available to local decision makers as guide to making land-use decisions. 2. SCAG lead the development of a strategic plan to address the aggregates industry. San Diego County should be invited to participate as there may be commonality in implications. 3. Jurisdictions include mineral resources into ecosystem planning. 4. Local governments should perform economic evaluations of their agricultural and mineral resources and support industries in their general planning in comparison with the values and costs of other land uses. Assessments should include contributions to local, state and national economies, and short- term/long-term implications of conversion of land use. 5. Local governments, state agencies, land owners and interest groups involved in agriculture, and water companies redesign water pricing/allocation policy so that water does not become an economic burden to farmers. 6. Develop incentives, education, and policies for private and public areas to encourage water conservation, thereby reducing water demand. (See Water Resources Chapter 6). 7. Local jurisdictions develop tax policy for areas that are to remain in open space for agriculture and minerals that is commensurate with the permanent uses. 4. RESOURCE PROTECTION California's flora and fauna are unique in the world. The state contains 25 percent of all the plant species of North America; 30 percent (1,758) of the plant species are endemic (i.e., are found no where else). Southern California in turn contains 50 percent of California's habitat types, has 50 percent of the 108 California listed threatened and endangered species, and 320 species of plants and animals that are candidates for listing. The _ combination of uniqueness and threat makes California one of the 18 ecological "hot spots" of the world, the only one that is in the United States. The threats to habitats are direct loss, degradation from on-site and off- site actions, fragmentation (including loss of linkages), and fire suppression. Contributing causes are population increases,fragmented decision-making, conflicting mandates, and lack of public understanding and concern. While basic concern is about species, planning and management attention for species protection is shifting across the country to the ecosystem (i.e., habitat) level. This approach is perceived to be more effective: it better handles the known and still poorly understood dynamics of all species in relationship with each other and their physical environment; it reduces or eliminates the need for piecemeal planning and streamlines project permitting process; and, it is more conducive to bringing all land use considerations and jurisdictions into the planning and management picture. Examples of ecosystem planning in California include: Page 9-20 • December 1993 SCAG Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation Coordinated Resource Management Planning, multi-species planning, and Natural Communities Conservation Planning. A determination has been made of ecosystems at risk of dysfunction using the combined knowledge of Southern California biologists to plot currently sensitive habitat/linkage areas and through the use of the California Gap Analysis being conducted by the University of California at Santa Barbara. The latter computer overlays plant community mapping with land ownership to evaluate the protective status of habitats and potential future loss and fragmentation. The potential for additional species to be listed increases in direct relation to the number of communities at risk. "Gap Analysis" has some limitations: it is coarse-scale and non-specific in the location of species, does not recognize management problems, cannot "see" micro- habitats, and cannot be used for project-scale planning. However, it is futuristic and very revealing at a regional scale given the trend of wholesale conversions of natural areas to development. Plant communities "at risk" are those with very high amounts of private land or very low amounts of dedicated protection land (and endemic) and are subject to habitat loss and fragmentation to the point that more species of plants and animals could become listed. Within the three ecoregions that comprise the SCAG area, the following Gap findings are provided: Southwest Ecoregion (i.e. coast to mountain ridge) • Eighteen mapped communities are at risk (out of 55 mappable). • Thirty-two communities are so small or fragmented to a point where they could not be mapped. Most of them are at risk. • Twenty-nine of 55 mapped communities are common to at least 10 percent coverage in both SCAG and San Diego County (see Figure 9-6 and Table 9-1 for additional information). Sonora (i.e., southern or low desert) and Moiave (i.e., northern or high desert) are incompletely mapped at this time. Determinations to date indicate that between 10-to-20 communities in the area are at-risk. The amount of development in the Southwest Ecoregion places more of its plant communities at risk than those in the desert ecoregion. Chapter 3 of the RCP contains more information on the distribution of the plant communities in each ecoregion. Issues: 1. Southern California ecosystems, mostly those on the lower elevations and gentle slopes of urbanizing areas, are shrinking, becoming fragmented, and not being managed to the point that many are in danger of serious dysfunction and hundreds of plant and animal species have become candidates for listing under endangered species acts (ESA). The potential for more species to be listed will continue to increase as more lands get converted to urban development. 2. Adverse habitat loss caused by one jurisdiction impacts all lands and jurisdictions within the same habitat. 3. Few jurisdictions are organized to be able to contribute the necessary staff and time to working in a regional context to solve problems. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 9-21 Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation 4. Local jurisdictions" use of prevailing general planning, regulatory and implementation tools lack regional perspective and weight to protecting open space areas and resources. 5. Existing funding mechanisms are inadequate to provide the necessary funding for local governments -to plan, manage and monitor natural areas. Funding requirements have to date unfairly fallen to the rural jurisdictions and landowners. 6. Less than 1 percent of biodiversity (nationwide) has been sampled for new chemical compounds for possible medical and other products. Some plants and animals may be destroyed before their scientific and medicinal values are determined. 7. State and federal endangered species acts impose species protection requirements on local governments without considering the staff and funding limitation of these agencies. Protection of species and and their habitats could better be handled at the state and federal levels. As currently implemented, ESA places undue burdens on local governments and private developers. Goal: Develop well-managed viable ecosystems or known habitats of rare, threatened, and endangered species, including wetlands. Strategies 1. SCAG region through sub-regions, San Diego County, local, state, and federal jurisdictions develop ecosystem for ecosystems at-risk (mapped and micro from Gap and other identified sensitive habitats) and eventually all ecosystems, working in partnership under the lead of SANDAG and SCAG subregional councils. Continue to work together to manage and monitor areas. Ecosystem plans should address needs for protection, development, research, education, and multiple use needs and opportunities. 2. SCAG form regional biodiversity councils (of local, subregional, state and federal jurisdictions under local government leadership) for continuity in dialogue, pooling of expertise and information, and mutual aid in modeling, management and monitoring of biodiversity areas. This could be done under specific, separate agreements or affiliation of key state and federal jurisdictions with SCAG. 3. SCAG and subregions should explore strategies for management of open spaces once acquired. Options include the establishment of resource management agencies, special open space districts, conservancies, and private companies. _ 4. Public agencies and private land owners should marshall their resources and proactively plan for the long-term open space needs of the community, subregion, or the region. Ecosystem planning would fulfill the bulb of NEPA, CEQA and permitting requirements such as Clean Water Act and ESA requirements, thus expediting the review process of projects proposed in the region. The plans would also provide land use predictability for all interests. The tiering of EIRs' could result in substantial cost and time saving for communities and private developers. 5. Plans utilize applicable market and cost/benefit analytical tools as well as scientific data to determine the amount and configuration of permanent ecological open spaces, and the true cost and benefits of a development proposal. Page 9-22 • December 1993 SCAG Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Nine • Open Space and Conservation 6. In the Southwest Ecoregion, until ecosystem plans are written and for the purposes of RCP allocations, direct growth into large acreage communities. In this region there are about 10 communities, some at risk and some not, each containing over 150,000 acres and a total of about 1,175,000 private land acres. With the exception of Orange County these are fairly evenly spread among the SCAG counties (see Figure 9-7). Not all acres are appropriate for development. The Southwest Ecoregion Committee (Strategy No. 2) should coordinate the development of guidelines and criteria to determine the viability of ecosystems, the areas appropriate for development and areas best left undeveloped. 7. SCAG research the complexity of funding opportunities ( Section C above) for habitat planning, acquisition, management, and monitoring as well as incentives to private landowners for participation where possible to minimize the acquisition burden). State and federal jurisdictions in the SCAG area should be involved. Large amounts of capital will be needed in aggregate on a sustained basis to cover planning, implementation, and monitoring. The funding should be largely publicly provided with an emphasis on assessment districts and state and federal funding to be assured of the necessary amount and sustainability. Implement what can be done through local authorities and initiatives and work with state and federal jurisdictions and elected officials for the remainder. 5. GREENBELTS Greenbelts are an important open space attribute and represent the sum total of all the all the other open space elements together into a defined pattern that, along with attention to scenic and cultural values, gives visual definition and character to the urban-open space landscape elements. As visual elements, greenbelts provide psychological relief to the otherwise dreary urban "hardscape" that so characterizes Southern California. Landscape Architect, Garrett Eckbo observed that open space is an indispensable element in urban design: "Architecture, trees and open spaces are the basic complimentary elements of urban design. City planning which does not make possible good architecture, good tree culture, and adequate open space, is failing to reach its potentials. The city which is not beautiful is not functional and hence a waste of all time, energy, labor, and material which went into its construction." Action toward achieving all the other goals with the strategies previously outlined, and along with attention to designs, scenic and cultural values noted above will result in the greenbelt system that will characterize the SCAG region and its communities. SCAG should coordinate research to quantify the social and economic values and benefits of greenbelts—mental well-being, crime reduction, property values, community stability, _ and land-use efficiency. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 9-23 v� 1 v. .v, ao Iwo 40 CL ,. r .y r I '��••\.�c ,'f,,I, ? •illll��l�llllllr be r co .. O ' `►: II�� �! 11 Q 1 h - - Il�ld• c �++ v r v ` �, G r 1 � O •� V tv r. •.11y1� , •° ,° ep tv r._ o c o y Q — H O Co 4-1 C O O Co Q) O .ry ��• Od O O V v �7 •py m r r ._ Q) cp 4w r V V O I . 1 v � cn � 4D ° ° � �o z z � ►.+.-- � v a fir+' ® • �c AVWft a L&F z 00 - w o N :r h O � v • ,Afff s 0 y;�%/ p t i ...P-M., CP CL dc y N N 'bR C N N Q , N 1�1 C tR ye - v N 4 Q N V� a & o ` 0 � z •= �+ yz aye � rtt oo yt �o tR Nye w a a .2 o � � w � a � � r + y � e C ype r a NN �. ado r r � � erfn .N. r L C 0O0 N N O� N N N Q N O O !V Oee ye tie o %R N tR a Wt ye ye a o !p� IR en eV '" h by ° vw N = ^ •J S�• LO W V O 00 O O t0 p u 'o U 'o V Q� + V d U + >. $ ye � 1R � Wt v0% tR v !R N ye : o lR g y. 'Q U %O � b MD V N N h T" N m r ip ao 0% ah • vJ z 2 U U U U U r.i o v C N CV � ao ye S ye a ye r ye ° tie p tie � a, � kl6�y ... •n N en • �o a r r � v� �o �L oL � V �•+ CO bj dt jy gn go 1- 44 a C Off. a N .r. C V — N O J V iL O V d d U 9 V Q1 x V = oN � � o � s 0000 � o • C6 C6 gg a, u u � •Q E � E e M •� d ; d � ye tR ra %R �1 p . . . ; . = = = 2000UUV v C^ � .•. N PI ♦ h �O • "•:}_:?_�':;:�:i::�i�':�:�ii}:-:����"-:�?:-:�:�?::?S{iii'• � •:4:' _i'.:.. -:'::::•:::•:% Vii:.;�-.� . ,,..�� �.;. oo V/.Oi '/A ,y ZVI PRO f �. I 4 r WATER RESOURCES A. INTRODUCTION Water has played a central role in the development and growth of the SCAG region. Major efforts have been initiated to supply a growing population with adequate amounts of water. Early in the century, it became apparent that local supplies of water would not be sufficient to satisfy the region's thirst. Since then major construction of a water supply infrastructure has, and continues to bring in water from areas where water is more plentiful, such as the Owens Valley, the Bay Delta area in Northern California, and the Colorado River. Despite these outside sources, recent droughts have continued to make the issue of water critical in the region. New water supply, management, and conservation techniques are being explored to create a more reliable long-term supply of water. These techniques include water recycling, the more effective use of groundwater basins, desalination, improved irrigation techniques, and better storage facilities. As part of the development of the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP), SCAG signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU)--with the Metropolitan Water District (MWD), the largest wholesale water agency in the region, to develop a Water Resources Component. This MOU represented an historic joint effort to better coordinate the planning for water resources in the region with the more traditional planning carried out by SCAG, such as transportation and growth management. MWD has developed a water resources component that projects water supply and demand to the year 2010 and identifies the critical water supply and demand issues as well as the process for ensuring adequate water supplies in the future. This chapter (Sections B through F) contains the majority of MWD's plan. A more extensive version of the plan, which includes SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-1 Chapter Ten • Water Resources detailed information on the factors that drive water demand in the region and the available water sources, can be obtained by contacting either SCAG or MWD and requesting a copy. MWD, however, does not serve all of the SCAG region. For those areas outside of the MWD region, SCAG surveyed numerous water agencies to ensure that the entire region was represented in the RCP. The survey included projections of water supply and demand in these agencies as well as the issues they face in securing adequate supplies for their growing communities. The results of the survey are summarized in Section G through of this chapter. B. THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT SERVICE AREA 1 . SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF REGIONAL WATER Delivery of adequate water supplies to the semi-desert and desert environments of Southern California has been a central issue for more than 200 years. During that time, increasingly sophisticated water delivery systems have been developed, together with the wholesale, retail, and regulatory agencies necessary to ensure reliable supplies of quality water to accommodate the demands of a growing region. While water agencies have no direct responsibility for land use planning, it is clear that the urban development and economy of Southern California would be dramatically different without adequate and reliable supplies of water for irrigation, domestic, and industrial use. Local surface water, groundwater, and reclaimed water sources currently provide only about 40 percent of the six-.county SCAG regional water supply. Local water sources are fully developed and are expected to remain relatively stable in the future, with the exception of reclaimed water use. The remaining 60 percent of the regional water supply is currently imported from outside of the region. The continued availability of water from outside of the region is uncertain at current levels. The enlargement of the East Branch of the California Aqueduct will facilitate increased delivery from the State Water Project (SWP) systems. However, dependable yield from the SWP is expected to decrease slightly over time as water use in areas of origin in northern California increases and is expected to be further reduced due to increasing allocations of water for environmental needs in the Delta. The amount of water that California imports from the Colorado River under California's apportionment is expected to decline substantially in the near future with increasing demand for water in Ari2zna and Nevada. Is the current water supply adequate to accommodate future demand? Recent population projections indicate that the region may grow by approximately five million residents by the year 2010. Substantial increases in urban water demand and loss of dependable supplies may result in a projected shortfall of about 0.56 million acre feet (MAF)- within MWD's service area in 2010 with existing water supplies and under average hydrologic conditions. Clearly, substantial changes in levels of consumption and supplies of water will be required to meet expected water demands to sustain the region's growth and economic health. Page 10-2 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan • Chapter Ten • Water Resources 2. THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT AND THE WATER RESOURCE ELEMENT OF SCAG'S REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE PLAN Water facilities are part of the region's infrastructure system in the same way that electrical power, natural gas, waste treatment, and other utilities are considered infrastructure. Therefore, development of an appropriate and adequate water supply infrastructure follows and is dependent on the anticipated level of growth for the region. The inexorable interrelationship between land use and water supply planning points to the conclusion that the two areas should be coordinated to the fullest extent feasible. In response to federal and state mandates and the need for better regional planning, SCAG is developing a RCP which will have 14 integrated components (Growth Management, Regional Mobility, Housing, Air Quality, Economic Development, Energy, Hazardous Waste Management, Integrated Solid Waste Management, Open Space and Resources, Water Resources, Water Quality, Finance, Human Resources and Services, and a Strategic Element). The Water Resources chapter will focus on current and future water supply and conservation to meet the needs of the SCAG region. At the request of SCAG, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) will prepare the RCP's Water Resources Chapter for its service area. The MWD service area is 5,139 square miles of California's coastal plain and extends from the city of Oxnard to the international boundary with Mexico. MWD's service area within the SCAG region, as shown in Figure 10-1, includes portions of Ventura, Los Angeles, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties and nearly all of Orange County. Although Imperial County is part of the SCAG region, it is not served by MWD. The coastal portion of San Diego County is served by MWD through the San Diego County Water Authority (SDCWA) but it is not a part of the SCAG region. Table 10-1 shows the MWD service area accounting for approximately 10 percent of the total SCAG land area and 85 percent of the total 1990 SCAG population. The Water Resources chapter for the MWD service area is based primarily on the updated 1990 Regional Urban Water Management Plan, which includes a description of MWD's management policies and the delivery system. The 1990 Regional Urban Water Management Plan was prepared in response to the Urban Water Management Planning Act which requires every urban water supplier providing water for municipal purposes to more than 3,000 customers or supplying more than 3,000 acre-feet per year (AFY) of water to prepare and adopt a plan every five years. The first plan was prepared in 1985 and revised in 1990. Addressing the need to coordinate water supply and land use planning, AB 455 of the 1992 Legislative Session, which is now law, encourages local agencies that are approving development projects to coordinate and consult with water supply agencies to ensure that proper water supply planning occurs. As a wholesale water agency, MWD is responsible for providing a high quality, reliable imported water supply to supplement local water supplies and, in conjunction with its member agencies, to implement regional water supply and demand management strategies to accommodate the region's existing and future needs. MWD relies on regional planning agencies to provide accurate regional growth estimates, which serve as the basis for water supply planning. SCAG and the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG), as regional planning agencies develop population, housing and employment forecasts to the year 2010. Based on SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-3 Chapter Ten • Water Resources � I _ i I i I I a 0 3 m w m a B I C Y r {f I h L -u � u � wA 3 L M° L Paige 10-4 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources Table 10-1 AREA AND POPULATION OF THE MWD SERVICE AREA WITHIN THE SCAG REGION 1990 MWD Percent County Total County Service Area MWD Land Use (Sq.M'i) Imperial 4,175 0 0 Los Angeles 4,080 1,394 34.2 Orange 786 695 88.4 Riverside 7,249 1,043 14.4 San Bernardino 20,154 242 1.2 Ventura 1,865 349 18.7 Total 38,309 3,722 9.7 Population (1,000s) Imperial 109 0 0 Los Angeles 8,877 8,208 92.6 Orange 2,411 2,411 100.0 Riverside 1,170 862 73.7 San Bernardino 1,418 560 39.5 Ventura 669 476 71.2 _ Total 14,655 12,516 85.4 Source: MWD, 1993; U.S. Census i SCAG a Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-5 Chapter Ten • Water Resources these regionally adopted forecasts, MWD is able to project future water needs and develop appropriate and adequate infrastructure. As presented in Table 10-2, the population of the MWD service area within the SCAG region is projected to increase from 12.5 million in 1990 to 16.2 million by the year 2010. This represents an increase of 3.7 million people or 29.7 percent during the 20 year period. The fastest growth area will be Riverside County where population is projected to more than double during the period. Table 10-2 POPULATION PROJECTIONS MWD SERVICE AREA 1990 AND 2010 Percent County 1990 2010 Growth Growth Los Angeles 8,207,800 9,896,100 1,688,300 20.6 Orange 2,410,700 - 3,067,300 656,600 27.2 Riverside 862,200 1,796,800 934,600 108.4 San Bernardino 559,600 - 864,700 305,100 54.5 Ventura 476,100 607,200 131,100 27.5 Within SCAG Region 12,516,400 16,232,100 3,715,700 29.7 San Diego 2,361,400 3,293,000* 931,000 39.5 NiWD Service Area 14,8779800 199525,100 49647,300 31.2 Source: SCAG Draft RCP, 1993, SANDAG Draft Series 8 Forecasts, 1993 * SANDAG has just released higher population projections under its "Economic prosperity' alternative. Under the Metropolitan Water District Act, "districts may be organized...for the purpose of developing, storing, and distributing water for domestic purposes and may be formed of the territory included within the boundaries of any two or more municipalities, which need not be contiguous... MWD has the power of eminent domain, authority to occupy public streets and other public lands, the authority to borrow and create indebtedness, and to levy and collect taxes, as well as acquisition, distribution, and sale of water. As Table 10-3 shows, MWD's member agencies include 12 Municipal Water Districts, 14 member cities, and the San Diego County Water Authority. Member agencies of MWD either provide retail water service directly to consumers or in turn wholesale imported water to retail water purveyors. Approximately 300 retail water purveyors serve the 250 cities and communities within MWD's service area. Page 10-6 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources 3. OBJECTIVES OF THE WATER RESOURCES ELEMENT The objectives of the Water Resources chapter for the MWD service area are as follows: • Clarify the relationship of the Water Resources Element for the MWD service area and the SCAG RCP • Provide an assessment of regional water demands based on SCAG's growth forecasts for the MWD service area • Provide an assessment of current water supplies to the MWD service area • Provide a system of programs that will meet the requirements of a reliable urban water supply for the MWD service area and appropriate watershed mitigation measures for the SCAG Master Environmental Assessment (MEA) • Identify issues for resolution in the next RCP update. Table 10-3 MEMBER AGENCIES OF METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Member Cities Municipal Water District 1. Anaheim 15. Calleguas Municipal Water District 2. Beverly Hills 16. Central Basin Municipal Water District 3. Burbank 17. Chino Basin Municipal Water District 4. Compton 18. Coastal Municipal Water District 5. Fullerton 19. Eastern Municipal Water District 6. Glendale 20. Foothill Municipal Water District 7. Long Beach 21. Las Virgenes Municipal Water District 8. Los Angeles 22. Municipal Water District of Orange County - 9. Pasadena 23. Three Valleys Municipal Water District 10. San Fernando 24. Upper San Gabriel Valley Municipal Water District 11. San Marino 25. West Basin Municipal Water District 12. Santa Ana 26. Western Municipal Water District of Riverside 13. Santa Monica 14. Torrance County Water Authority 27. San Diego County Water Authority Source: The Regional Urban Water Management Plan, MWD, 1990 SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-7 Chapter Ten • Water Resources ' 4. EXISTING REGIONAL WATER DEMAND AND SUPPLY a. Regional Water Demands In general, as the region's population increases, so does the overall demand for water. In addition to population changes, socio-economic characteristics, geographic growth, climate and water conservation practices influence regional water demand. The factors that increase per capita water use are, increased household income, increased labor force, increased commercial development, and growth in the inland region. The factors that decrease per capita use are, increased household size, increased proportion of multifamily housing, changes in the industrial mix, and urban water conservation. Local climate and weather are also determinants of water useage because of the following factors: • Geographic variations in normal seasonal conditions. • Geographic variations in per capita demand. • Seasonal Population. • Prolonged drought conditions. Southern California is characterized as having a Mediterranean, or dry summer, subtropical climate. MWD's service area can be divided into three broad climate zones: The Coastal Zone, the Inland Valley Zone, and the Desert Zone. Average residential per capita use ranges from 97 gallons per person per day (GPCD) in the Coastal Zone to 162 GPCD in the Desert Zone. Total water use in the MWD service area for fiscal year 1990 was approximately 4.0 million acre-feet (MAF), with 3.6 MAF used for municipal and industrial (M & 1) purposes and 0.4 MAF used for agricultural purposes. The major components of the M & I water use and the corresponding percentage of use to total M & I use are the following: • Single-family residential 45% • Multi-family residential 21% • Commercial and Institutional 17% • Industrial 6`10 • Meter Error and System Losses 5% • Fire Fighting, Line Cleaning, Other 3% - • Public 100% b. Regional Water Supplies Water demands in the MWD service area are met by both local and imported sources. About one-third of the water supply is from local sources, which is comprised of about 90 percent groundwater and 10 percent surface and reclaimed water. Two-thirds of the water supply for MWD's service area is imported via the Los Angeles Aqueduct serving the City of Los Angeles, MWD's Colorado River Aqueduct, and through the MWD's entitlement to State Water Project (SWP) water. In MWD's service area for fiscal year 1990, local supplies provided 1.3 MAF, MWD's imported supplies provided 2.5 MAF, and the Los Angeles Aqueduct provided 0.2 MAF for a total water supply of 4.0 MAF. Rage 10-8 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan s Chapter Ten • Water Resources C. PROJECTED WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND 1 . PROJECTED WATER DEMAND a. Projection Methodology MWD uses an econometric model to project water demand. The model was developed in the early 1960s by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources and recently updated to incorporate water use patterns of Southern California residents and businesses. Separate projections for the four major water use sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, and public/unaccounted) are estimated by MWD. To make long-term water demand projections, economic, demographic, and climate factors are taken into account. Regarding residential water demand forecasting, the model takes into consideration the following variables: population, housing mix, household occupancy (persons per household), housing values, weather conditions, and the implementation of conservation measures. SCAG's and SANDAG's projected population, housing, and employment data are basic demographic input for the model. The model assimilates the effects of water conservation measures currently practiced in the MWD service area since 1980. These measures include savings from the 1981 and 1992 California Plumbing Codes, public education programs, and the effects of changes in retail prices from 1980-1990. For projections of future water needs, the model also incorporates future water conservation practices and projected increases in water rates. Projected commercial and industrial water demands are a function of employment in the numerous types of commercial, institutional, and manufacturing establishments as well as water/wastewater prices and conservation practices. SCAG's and SANDAG's employment projections were used in the model. A key assumption of the model is the incorporation of varied weather conditions. MWD is able to project water demands during years of above-average or below-average rainfall and temperature. The analysis has established that the above-normal water demand, occurring on average every one-in-20 years, was approximately seven percent greater than normal (average) water demand. b. Conservation and Best Management Practices During the past several years, a group of urban water agencies, the environmental community, and other public interest groups have worked as the State Water Conservation Coalition to reach a consensus on a process of standardized water conservation practices known as "Best Management Practices" (BMP). Under the BMP process, participating water agencies commit to use "good faith efforts" to implement proven water conservation measures, develop new measures, and implement them as they become feasible. MWD has committed to implementation of 16 BMPs during the next 10 years. SCAG a Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-9 Chapter Ten • Water Resources These 16 MWD Best Management Practices are the following: 1. Interior and exterior water audits and incentive programs for single-family residential, multi-family residential, and governmental/institutional customers. 2. Plumbing new and retrofit: A. Enforcement of requirement for ultra-low flush toilets in all new construction beginning January 1, 1992; B. Support of State and Federal legislation prohibiting sale of toilets using more than 1.6 gallons per flush; and C. Plumbing retrofit. 3. Distribution system water audits, leak detection and repair. 4. Metering with commodity rates for all new connections and retrofit of existing connections. 5. Large landscape water audits and incentives. 6. Landscape waiter conservation requirements for new and existing commercial, industrial, institutional, governmental, and multifamily developments. 7. Public information. 8. School education. 9. Commercial and industrial water conservation. 10. New commercial and industrial water use review. 11. Conservation pricing. 12. Landscape water conservation for new and existing single-family houses. 13. Water waste prohibition. 14. Water conservation coordinator. 15. Financial incentives. 16. Ultra-low-flush toilet replacement. Page 10-10 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources As a result of established ongoing regional conservation programs and anticipated savings from the implementation of BMPs in the MWD service area of the SCAG region, water savings of 636,900 AFY are projected by the year 2010. To facilitate the implementation of BMPs, MWD has established its Conservation Credits Program. Under this program, MWD provides a financial incentive to its member agencies for the implementation of conservation programs that have a demonstrated ability to save water. MWD's incentive payment is based on the lesser of$154 per acre foot of water saved during the life of the program or one-half the cost of the proposed program. c. Consumers Response to Water Rates Changes It should be noted that MWD is a wholesale water agency. As such, it has no retail customers and, therefore, no retail water rates. MWD has no authority, nor does it have the ability to establish retail water rates in its service area. Any discussions of retail rates, such as increasing block, seasonal prices, and other conservation incentive structures is included in plans prepared by local agencies. In fact, Water Code Section 10610.2(b) states that "The conservation and efficient use of urban water supplies are of statewide concern; however, the planning for that use and the implementation of those plans can best be accomplished at the local level." The following sections describe the average retail prices in Southern California and present the theoretical relationships between prices and water use. A survey of retail prices of water services in Southern California was conducted as part of a MWD water demand study. Table 10-4 summarizes retail "average prices" of water obtained from 45 agencies in the six counties in MWD's water service area. The 1980 weighted average price was 72 cents per 1,000 gallons, while the 1990 average price has risen to $1.55 per 1000 gallons, an apparent increase of 115 percent over 10 years. However, after converting the 1980 value to 1990 dollars (thus removing the effect of general price inflation), the real increase in water price was 40 percent for the decade or 4 percent per year. The understanding of consumer behavior in responding to changes in water rates is critical to the efficient management of urban water demand. Retail water agencies in Southern California can implement price incentives only if they can predict the effects of price changes upon the current and future use of water by their customers. However, the current understanding does not allow predictions of the effectiveness of alternative rate designs in reducing water use to a level of accuracy and predictability that is required in water supply planning. Economists predict the consumer response to price based on the theory which states that the quantity demanded is a function of price paid for the last unit of water used. This responsiveness to price is often termed the price elasticity of water demand. According to historical data, MWD statistically estimated, by regression analysis, price elasticity for its service area. When water price increases are implemented together with non-price conservation measures, the interrelationship of price and the other measures must be considered. Based on historic data and other studies regarding price and conservation, it was estimated that 50 percent of the price effect (elasticity) is exerted in BMP, or conservation compliance. These conservation measures include water-efficient plumbing, home and governmental audits, landscaping measures for existing construction, distribution system leak detection and repair, commercial and industrial conservation, SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-11 Chapter Ten • Water Resources Table 10-4 1990 RETAIL WATER PRICES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Range of Weighted Number of Average Prices County Average Sampled $/1,000 gal. $/1,000 gal. County Agencies $/AF $/AF Los Angeles 17 1.11 - 2.63 1.62 362 - 857 528 Orange 12 0.84 - 2.42 1.37 -274 - 789 446 Riverside 4 0.91 - 2.05 1.04 -297 - 668 339 San Bernardino 2 0.92 - 1.35 1.14 300 - 440 371 San Diego 6 1.52 - 2.72 1.70 496 - 887 554 Ventura 4 1.42 - 1.79 1.56 463 - 584 509 TOTAL 45 0.84 -2.72 1.55 274 - 887 505 Soarce: MWD 1990, Regional Urban Water Management Plan for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. Note: The 45 agencies surveyed serve approximately nine million people(or 61 percent of the population in MWD's service area). Page 10-12 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources ultra low-flush toilet retrofits, conservation pricing, public education and information, metering, and water waste prohibition. The remaining 50 percent of the price effect was estimated to represent savings from behavioral changes and commercial and industrial conservation not explicitly specified in the BMPs. A more technical discussion on price elasticity can be found in MWD report "Municipal and Industrial Water Use In the Metropolitan Water District Service Area: Interim Report No. 4" prepared in June 1991. Projected real increases (without inflation) in retail prices as shown in Table 10-5 have been used for water demand projections. Table 10-5 PROJECTED INCREASES IN RETAIL PRICES 1990-2010 County Percent Change Los Angeles 26 Orange 33 Riverside 24 r San Bernardino 19 San Diego 49 Ventura 44 Source: MWD, 1991 Municipal&Industrial Water Use in the MWD Service Area Interim Report NoA d. Projected Water Demand Projected urban water demands are based on SCAG and SANDAG population, household, and employment projections developed under the Growth Management Element of the RCP, and take into account full implementation of BMPs and projected increases in retail water rates. As shown in Table 10-6, the implementation of best management practices will result in water conservation savings of about 770,000 AF by the year 2010. Urban water demand within MWD service area is projected to increase from 3.60 MAF to 4.24 MAF by 2010 under average weather condition (1990 urban water demand was higher than normal due to the hotter and drier climate). Figure 10-2 shows the resulting urban per capita water use decreasing from 217 gallons per capita per day (gpcd) in 1990 to 194 gpcd by 2010, more than a 10 percent decrease in per capita water use. SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-13 Chapter Ten • Water Resources Table 10-6 URBAN WATER DEMANDS IN MWD SERVICE AREA 1990 AND 2010 (AF) 2010 1990 Without Conservation With County Actual BMP's Savings BMP's Los Angeles 1,799,115 2,284,400 353,500 1,930,900 Grange 647,840 830,100 124,300 705,800 Riverside 236,855 590,300 91,900 498,400 San Bernardino 184,236 309,700 44,300 265,400 Ventura 115,091 155,000 23,100 131,900 With SCAG Region 2,983,137 4,169,500 637,100 3,532,400 San Diego 595,852 833,500 129,100 704,400 MWD Service Area 3,578,989 5,003,000 766,200 4,236,800 Source: MWD 1993 Page 10-14 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chaster Ten • Water Resources Figure 14-2 URBAN PER CAPITA WATER USE r MWD SERVICE AREA 250 HISTORIC PROJECTED (With normal weather) 225 Conse ation ( MPs) 0 200 F � a L IL N C O 0 175 C 150 1960 -1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Years Based on SCAG Draft RCP 1993; SANDAG Draft Series 8 Forecast Source: MWD, 1993 SCAG a Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-15 Chapter Ten • Water Resources Table 10-7 shows that projected agricultural water demands in Metropolitan's service area are decreasing from 428,000 AF in 1990 to 299,000 AF by 2010. The largest reduction is projected in Riverside County. A significant portion of the agriculture in MWD's service area in Riverside County is in the path of immediate urbanization. Table 10-8 and Figure 110-3 show the projected regional water demands for MWD's service area. Based on SCAG and SANDAL draft growth management plans, population within MWD's service area will increase from 14.9 million in 1990 to 19.5 million by the year 2010 (Table 10-8). Population is expected to grow approximately 30 percent from 1990 to 2010. With the implementation of water conservation best management practices and decreasing agricultural water demands, regional water demand is expected increase from 3.9 million acre-feet (MAF) to 4.5 MAF by 2010 under average weather condition. (Actual 1990 water demand was 4.0 MAF due to the hotter and drier climate). Hence, water demand is expected to increase approximately 15 percent from 1990 to 2010. Table 10-7 AGRICULTURAL WATER DEMAND MWD SERVICE AREA 1990 AND 2010 (AF) County 1990 2010 Change Los Angeles 3,900 3,500 -400 Orange 35,200 21,400 -13,800 Riverside 208,400 114,500 -93,900 San Bernardino 33,500 35,000 1,500 Ventura 25,600 16,200 -9,400 Within SCAG 306,600 190,600 -116,000 Region - San Diego 121,200 108,000 -13,200 MWD Service Area 427,800 298,600 -129,200 Source: MWD, 1990 Agricultural Water Use in Metropolitan's Service Area, Report No. 1018 Page 10-16 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chaprer Ten • Water Resources Figure 10-3 REGIONAL WATER DEMANDS MWD SERVICE AREA 7 Historic - Projected (normal weather) 6 vot,on 5 on5er as as Q 4 C 0 3 2 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Fiscal Year Ending Based on SCAG Draft RCP 1993; SANDAG Draft Series 8 Forecast Source: MWD, 1993 SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-17 Chapter Ten • Water Resources Table 10-8 ACTUAL AND PROJECTED WATER DEMAND IN THE MWD SERVICE AREA 1990 AND 2010 (MAF) County 1990 2010 Los Angeles 1.80 1.93 Orange 0.68 0.73 Riverside 0.44 0.62 San Bernardino 0.22 0.30 Ventura 0.14 0.15 Within SCAG 3.29 3.73 Region San Diego 0.72 0.81 MWD Service Area 4.01 4.54 Source: MWD, 1993 2. PROJECTED WATER SUPPLY As shown in Table 10-9, existing supplies in an average year are expected to total 4.00 MAF in the year 2010. Of the existing supplies, 1.05 MAF will come from local production, 0.40 MAF from reclaimed water, 0.37 M)►F from the Los Angeles Aqueducts, 0.62 MAF from the Colorado River, and 1.56 MAF from the State Water Project. MWD is pursuing additional supplies of 1.02 MAFY through the implementation of a number of programs such as obtaining additional water from the Colorado River and State Water Project, water reclamation, groundwater recovery, water management and transfers. These programs, described in Section D, could increase total average year supplies to 5.02 MAF. Also shown in Table_10-1) is the minimum supplies condition. The minimum supplies condition is equivalent to the 1991 experience when both Los Angeles Aqueduct and State Water Project supplies had dwindled after four previous critically dry years statewide(1987-1990). Based on historic weather data, it is estimated that the 1991 supply condition occurs about once in 50 years. Under this extreme drought condition, existing supplies for MWD service area could decrease to 2.40 MAF and water management and supply augmentation programs could increase total supplies to 4.35 MAR Paige 10-18 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources Table 10-9 EXISTING AND POTENTIAL WATER SUPPLY FOR THE MWD SERVICE AREA 2010 (MAF) Average Minimum Year Supply Year Supply Existing Supplies Local Production 1.05 1.05 Reclaimed Water 0.40 0.40 Los Angeles Aqueducts 0.37 0.12 Colorado River 0.62 0.62 State Water Project 1.56 0.21 Total 4.00 2.40 Potential Increase in Supplies Additional Colorado River 0.45 0.45 Additional State Water Project & 0.20 1.13 Transfer* Reclaimed Water 0.27 0.27 Groundwater Recovery 0.10 0.10 r Total 1.02 1.95 TOTAL SUPPLIES 5.02 4.35 Source: MWD, 1993 * Includes SWP water stored in surface reservoirs and groundwater basins in wet and normal years. a. Projected Water Supply and Demand Balance The projected water demand and supply balances for MWD service area are shown in Table 10-10 and Figures 10-4 and 10=5. As shown in Table 10-9, consumptive water demand for MWD's service area, under average weather conditions, is projected at 4.54 MAF in the year 2010. If no additional supplies are developed, MWD's service area could potentially experience a shortage up to 480,000 AFY under average weather conditions. Assuming shortages within MWD's service area are shared based on water needs, shortages within SCAG's region could potentially be 395,000 AFY. With supply augmentation and management programs being pursued an additional 1.02 MAF of water supplies is expected as shown in Table 10-9 and Figure 10-3. SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-19 0 • Chapter Ten • Water Resources Figure 104 DEMAND AND SUPPLIES IN 2010 AVERAGE YEAR CONDITION 6 5.79 BMP's 5.23 5 5.02 5.02 Existing Conservation Additional SWP, Replenishment CRA Supplies Demand & Desalination 4.54 4.27 Potential Reclamation 4 4.00 as as W6 y SWP Entitlement L V C3 Consumptive .0 Regional � 2.44 Demands Colorado 2 River 1.82 , aC/StIA NO 1.42 - _ 1.05 w. 0 Source: SCAG Draft RCP 1993; SANDAG Series 8; MWD 1993 Page 10-20 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan r Chapter Ten • Water Resources Figure 10-5 DEMAND AND SUPPLIES IN 2010 MINIMUM SUPPLIES CONDITION 6 5.61 BMP'S 5.05 5 4.84 Existing Conservation Rationing 4.35 4.35 4 Additional SWP Supplies, Water Transfers y Surface and Groundwater REGIONAL Storage Supplies DEMANDS 3.12 a 3 Additional c 2.67 CRA Supplies O Future Reclamation X 2.40 SWP Entitlement 2 2.19 Colorado River -'= 1.57 1.77 1.05 Based on SCAG Draft RCP 1993; SANDAG Draft Series 8 Forecast Source: NIWD, 1993 SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-21 Chapter Ten • Water Resources The projected yield from existing and potential supplies is estimated to total 5.02 MAF, which will meet consumptive demands of 4.54 MAF and have water stored in surface reservoirs and groundwater basins for use in drier years. The supply augmentations and water management programs (such as development of reclaimed water, development of storage strategies including conjunctive use of imported surface and local groundwater supplies, and water conservation) are consistent with mitigation measures for water supplies proposed in SCAG's 1989 Growth Management Plan Environmental Impact Report. In the year 2010, regional consumptive demand with BMP implementation is expected to increase from 4.54 MAF to 4.85 MAF under drought condition due to the hotter and drier weather. At the same time, water supplies are expected to decrease. Under a record drought such as 1991, existing water supplies could dwindle to 2.40 MAF as shown in Table 10-9. Recognizing that it is too expensive to plan for no shortages under extreme drought conditions, MWD's reliability goal for its service area allows for a 10 percent reduction in water demand beyond BMPs at a frequency of one in 50 years. Hence, the water supply augmentation and water management programs being pursued are expected to yield 4.35 MAF to meet 90 percent of the region's consumptive demands (see Figure 10-5). Table 10-10 WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE MWD SERVICE AREA 2010_ (MAF) Average Year Minimum Year Supply Supply Projected Demands with BMPs 4.54 4.84 Existing Supplies 4.00 2.40 Potential Shortage with Existing Supplies 0.54 2.44 Potential Additional Supplies 1.02 1.95 Available for Storage 0.48 — - Potential Need for Demand Reduction — 0.49 Source: MWD, 1993 Page 10-22 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources D. PROGRAMS TO MEET FUTURE DEMANDS 1 . COLORADO RIVER PROGRAMS MWD is continuing its efforts to obtain additional Colorado River supplies. Both short- and long-range supplies are being pursued on intermittent and dependable bases, as appropriate. A number of programs being considered by MWD are described in this section., Long term studies by the Bureau of Reclamation indicate that surplus Colorado River water could be made available to MWD in the future in certain years. As the amount of Colorado River water available to MWD continues to be determined on an annual basis, surplus water cannot be relied upon as a dependable supply. a. All American Canal and Coachella Canal Lining Title II of Public Law 100-675 authorized the Secretary of the Interior to line 65 miles of the All American Canal and the Coachella Canal. The lining of the canals could potentially conserve nearly 100,000 AFY of water. The projects are to be constructed with 100 percent non-federal funding provided by MWD, Coachella Valley Water District, Imperial Irrigation District and/or Palo Verde Irrigation District. It is estimated that approximately 68,000 AFY would be conserved by the lining of the All American Canal, and 30,000 AFY by the lining of the Coachella Canal. The water conserved would be made available to one or more of these four agencies in accordance with the priorities to use of water contained in their water delivery contracts with the United States. b. Interstate Underground Storage of Unused Colorado River Water The states of Arizona, California, and Nevada are discussing the feasibility of increasing the interstate underground storage of unused Colorado River water. Under this concept, Colorado River water would be stored in a groundwater basin in central Arizona when unused water is available and made available when needed. c. Phase II Water Conservation Program with Imperial Irrigation District Under a Phase II water conservation program with the Imperial Irrigation District (I1D), MWD would provide funding for constructing a regulatory reservoir and a spill-interceptor canal, lining canals with concrete, and further managing irrigation water on farms. Such a program could conserve 150,000 AFY. In return, the water conserved by this program would be made available to MWD. d. Modified Irrigation Practices and Land Fallowing Proposal of Imperial Irrigation District The implementation of a modified irrigation practice and land fallowing program with Imperial Irrigation District could provide 100,000 AFY of Colorado River water available to MWD for a two-year period. Under this proposal, farmers growing alfalfa in the Imperial Valley would enter into contracts, agreeing not to irrigate their crops for a 75-day period during the summer, thus saving an estimated 1.4 AF per SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-23 Chapter Ten • Water Resources acre, in return for compensation. Farmers could also enter into contracts, agreeing to fallow irrigated fields in return for compensation. 2. STATE WATER PROJECT PROGRAMS In April, 1992, the Governor delivered a water policy statement outlining a comprehensive program to meet the: water needs of urban, agricultural, and environmental interests in the State. In his policy statement, the Governor acknowledged the current problems in the Delta and the need for timely completion of environmental documentation for selection of a comprehensive Delta solution, and recognized the need to implement several currently planned SWP facilities. The SWP facilities specified were South Delta improvements, Kern Walter Bank (KWB), and Los Banos Grandes Reservoir (LBG). Implementation of a Delta water transfer solution and completion of the specific SWP facilities referred to by the Governor would significantly increase SWP water supplies. These facilities would allow diversion and storage of additional water from the Delta for delivery to MWD and the other SWP contractors. It is expected that the first facilities to be completed would be the initial phase of the KWB's Kern Fan Element (K]FE) and South Delta improvements, followed by completion of and a later phase of the KFE. Following completion of these facilities is the anticipated implementation of a Delta water transfer solution and completion of LBG. These facilities are anticipated to be complete by the year 2010. Existing SWP facilities are estimated to provide an average-year supply to MWD of about 1.56 MAFY. This estimate is based on an 1 WD SWP demand of 1.8 MAF and standards proposed by the SWRCB in their Draft Water Rights Decision 1630, which is an approximation of constraints required for protection under the Endangered Species Act for winter-run salmon and Delta smelt. The additional SWP facilities described above are estimated to increase SWP supplies to MWD by an average of approximately 0.20 MAFY. Minimum-year supplies with existing SWP facilities are estimated to be 0.21 MAFY. The minimum-year increase in SWP supplies resulting from additional facilities is projected to be approximately 1.13 MAFY. Operation of the SWP under more restrictive standards and constraints than assumed in these studies result in reductions from the supplies indicated here, both with existing and additional SWP facilities. 3. WATER TRANSFER AND EXCHANGE PROGRAMS California's agricultural .activities consume approximately 27 MAFY or 83 percent of California's 32.5 MAFY of developed wager supplies. Voluntary water transfers and exchanges can make a portion of this agricultural water supply available to support the State's urban economies. Consistent with the Governor's April 1992 Water Policy Statement, voluntary water transfers and exchanges are a critical element for improving the water supply reliability within MWD's service area and accomplishing the reliability goal set by MWD's Board of Directors. MWD is vigorously pursuing a full- range of voluntary water transfer and exchange programs with state, federal, public and private water districts and individuals. The enactment of the Federal Central Valley Project Improvement Act on October 30, 1992 represents a major breakthrough in California water policy and has significantly enhanced MWD's ability to transfer water from Central Valley Project (CVP) contractors. By removing restrictions which prevented the transfer of Page 10-24 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources CVP water supplies outside of its service areas and providing CVP water users the ability to directly transfer water, this act has substantially increased the amount of water available for water transfer and exchange programs. Other provisions of the Central Valley Project Improvement Act provide for restoration and enhancement of fish, wildlife and related habitats in the Central Valley and Trinity Basins, assist in Bay-Delta protection efforts, and balance demands for CVP water among urban, agriculture and environmental demands. MWD is currently developing the following transfer and exchange projects. a. Arvin-Edison/Metropolitan Water Storage and Exchange Program. This program involves storing up to 800,000 acre-feet (AF) of MWD's SWP supply in the groundwater basin underlying the Arvin-Edison Water Storage District (Arvin-Edison) which is located in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Valley. During shortage years, a portion of Arvin-Edison's federal CVP water would be delivered to MWD. In exchange, Arvin-Edison would serve its customers by pumping groundwater previously stored by MWD. As originally formulated, the program could increase MWD's dry-year supplies by approximately 93,000 AF per year (AFY). MWD's and Arvin-Edison's Board of Directors have approved an interim agreement for the storage of potential near-term surplus water. Actions taken under the endangered species act to protect winter-run salmon and Delta smelt as well as the allocation of CVP water for environmental purposes, has reduced the reliability of the CVP water to be delivered to MWD. As a result, MWD and Arvin-Edison are assessing alternative formulations of this program. b. SemitropiciMetropolitan Water Storage and Exchange Program. This program would involve groundwater storage and recovery operations. Under the program, MWD would store water in the groundwater basin underlying the Semitropic Water Storage District (Semitropic) when MWD's water supplies'are in excess of its demand. During shortage years, Semitropic would pump MWD's stored water supplies from the groundwater basin into the California Aqueduct through facilities owned and operated by Semitropic. A minimum pumpback of 40,000-60,000 AFY would be guaranteed. In addition, Semitropic has a contract for 158,000 AFY of Kern County Water Agency's SWP entitlement. Semitropic could exchange a portion of this entitlement water for MWD's stored water supplies, thereby substantially increasing the annual yield of the program. An initial agreement to store water in 1993 has been executed and approximately 45,000 AF of MWD's 1992 SWP carryover water was stored. Negotiations on a long-term agreement continue to progress. In July 1993 MWD and Semitropic initiated preparation of environmental documentation necessary to comply with the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). c. Dudley Ridge/Metropolitan Water Transfer Program. MWD executed an agreement for an option to transfer in 1993 a portion of Dudley Ridge Water District's (Dudley Ridge) 57,700 AF SWP entitlement. Under the terms of the agreement, MWD agreed to purchase all SWP water made available by Dudley Ridge in 1993 if SWP deliveries for that year were less than 50 percent. In February 1993, DWR announced that SWP deliveries would exceed 50 percent. Therefore, MWD did not receive any water from Dudley Ridge in 1993 and does not have any obligation to purchase its SWP water. The long-term transfer program is currently being negotiated. SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-25 Chapter Ten • Water Resources 4. LOCAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES a. Water Reclamation Use of reclaimed water has grown nearly 160 percent in just six years. Presently, the largest use of reclaimed water in Southern California is for groundwater recharge. Reclaimed water can be injected into seawater intrusion barriers or percolated in spreading basins for eventual reuse in potable systems. In October of 1990, MAD began work on a Water Reclamation Databank, a survey of the status of existing and proposed water reclamation projects in its service area. The Databank includes information on more than 40 new wastewater reuse projects which are in various stages of feasibility study, design, or construction. Under optimal conditions (i.e., successful completion of all proposed projects), existing and new wastewater treatment projects in the MWD service area could provide up to 675,000 AFY by 2010. The projections for expansion of wastewater reuse are subject to several constraints that will be discussed in Section E. b. 'Groundwater Management Programs Conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater basins has been a local management practice since the 1950s. Conjunctive use refers to both storage of surface water in available groundwater basin storage space and: increased pumping from basins in order to create storage space. A groundwater basin is recharged with storm waters and imported surface water during the winter months or wet years when supplies exceed demands. When surface water is in shortage during dry periods, stored water is extracted from the basins to meet peak water demands. Currently, the Seasonal Storage Program is MWD's basic conjunctive use program. The current Seasonal Storage Program was instituted in fiscal year 1989-90 to consolidate several programs designed to encourage conjunctive use. Seasonal storage service is generally available between October 1 and April 30, whenever and so long as MWD determines that water and system capacity are available, and at other times of the year at MWD's discretion. Under this program, member agencies are encouraged to take delivery of imported MVID supplies through a discounted water rate. Member agencies can store this water for use in the summer months to offset peak water demands on imported supplies, or water can be stored for use in later years. Since 1989, member agencies have purchased more than 600,000 AF of water under the Seasonal Storage Program. The economic incentive offered by MWD allows local agencies to invest in new water production, - storage, and treatment facilities. Some examples of investments and innovative water management as a result of the program can be found in: storage arrangements in the Raymond groundwater basin, new wells constructed in the San Fernando Basin by the City of Los Angeles, a low-interest loan program offered by Orange County Water District for construction of new wells in Orange County, and amendments to Central and West Coast Basin judgements to increase carryover storage from 10 to 20 percent of extraction rights in a given year. Expansion of the conjunctive use program continues to be a high priority for increasing water supplies in drought years and reducing peak period demands on importation facilities. MWD, in cooperation with several member agencies„ is evaluating the expansion of existing conjunctive use projects in the Chino, San Gabriel, and San Jacinto groundwater basins. The success of these projects depends on the availability, in some years, of imported water above consumptive needs. This surplus water would be recharged and stored Page 10-26 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan s Chapter Ten • Water Resources in local groundwater basins, to be withdrawn in years of shortfall. Conjunctive use also includes exchanging entitlement to stored groundwater for imported water, thus leaving the groundwater in storage for later use. In the Chino Basin, MWD has a cyclic storage program which can deliver up to 100,000 AFY of imported water for groundwater replenishment and storage for subsequent use during shortfalls. Chino Basin has also been used for groundwater/import water exchanges amounting to 43,000 AFY. During the 1987-1992 drought period 111,000 AF was withdrawn and sold for local use from these cyclic and exchange accounts. Currently, MWD is negotiating provisions for a new 50,000 AFY conjunctive use demonstration project which would store imported water in the Chino Basin through spreading, exchange, and injection operations. This project would allow MWD to store imported water during periods of availability and subsequently pump up to 30,000 AFY into its distribution system to improve regional water service reliability during droughts and peak demand periods. MWD currently has two contracts with the Main San Gabriel Basin Watermaster for cyclic storage of up to 167,000 AFY of imported water for subsequent transfer to two member agencies, the Upper San Gabriel Valley Municipal Water District and Three Valleys Municipal Water District. Over the 1987-92 drought about 129,000 AF of water was withdrawn and sold for local use from this cyclic storage program. Additionally, MWD is negotiating development of a large conjunctive use project which would be compatible with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Superfund cleanup program for the basin. The conjunctive use program would consist of a well field and groundwater treatment plant in the Baldwin Park area to pump and recover groundwater that is presently contaminated. The program could provide up to 150,000 AF of storage and up to 30,000 AFY of supply during drought periods. Up to 25 percent of the cost to design, plan, and construct the conjunctive use facility will be funded by the Department of the Interior under Section 1614 of the Reclamation Projects Authorization and Adjustment Act of 1992 (H.R. 429). Under a pilot demonstration project with Eastern Municipal Water District of Riverside County (Eastern), MWD stored about 2,000 AFY of imported water by spreading its SWP water for the first time in 1990 in the San Jacinto Basin. Eastern recently purchased that water to supplement its drought supply and is planning to store additional imported water in the basin. Additionally, a local pumpers association has been formed to maximize the use of the local San Jacinto and Hemet Basins. c. Groundwater Recovery E Groundwater quality data from the period of 1974 to 1989, shows that almost half of the local groundwater wells exceeded at least one primary or secondary drinking water standard. Major regional groundwater problems include the following: • Nitrate concentrations. • Total dissolved solids (TDS). y • Volatile organic compounds (VOC). I SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-27 ' P L Chapter Ten • Water Resources I In general, groundwater contamination is increasing as the long lasting residual impacts of industrial, dairy, agricultural, and municipal activities spread. Thus, at the same time that groundwater basins are being more intensively used to meet increasing water demands, this critical resource will be increasingly stressed due to historical and current waste disposal practices and resulting contamination. Because of this growing concern, MWD and other water utilities have undertaken a large scale program to improve regional water supply reliability through reclamation of groundwater degraded by minerals and other contaminants. Under its Groundwater Recovery Program, MWD will provide financial assistance to local agencies of up to $250 per acre-foot to recover contaminated groundwater for potable use. Approximately 40 projects at a cost to MWD of about$30 million per year are expected to be operational by the year 2005. The Groundwater Recovery Program is expected to recover 200,000 AFY. However, approximately 100,000 AF of this ultimate annual production will be untapped local yield or new supplies. The remainder will require replenishment from imported supplies and reclaimed water sources to avoid basin overdraft. The region will benefit from the projects requiring replenishment through a conjunctive use concept. In order to participate, each project must have sufficient storage reserves to sustain production during a three-year drought without receiving replenishment service from MWD. d. Surface Water Management = Final design and land acquisition for the Domenigoni Valley Reservoir project are currently underway. The Reservoir will be located in western Riverside County south of Hemet. The project, in combination with comprehensive groundwater management, will do the following: • Maximize groundwater storage by regulating the flow of imported water used for conjunctive use programs. • Provide emergency water reserves for use following facility damage resulting from major seismic events or other natural disasters. • Provide supplies to reduce water shortages during droughts. • Meet seasonal operating requirements, including seasonal peak demands. • Preserve the operating reliability of MWD's distribution system. The project, together with groundwater storage, is intended to provide two years of drought or carryover storage for meeting demands above normal projections. e. Desalination MWD has participated in several studies to evaluate the feasibility of seawater desalination and is pursuing the development of seawater desalination technologies. As a result of these studies, the San Diego County Water Authority (SDCWA) is completing a detailed study of the potential for constructing a reverse osmosis desalination facility as part of the South Bay Power Plant Repowerings Project. The plant could provide up to 92 AF per day. Page 10-28 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources Desalination is one of the only options available for providing adequate water supplies to coastal islands, such as Santa Catalina. In conjunction with the Santa Catalina Island Company, the city of Avalon has developed a desalination plant which converts 30 percent of the sea water entering the plant into fresh water. The 132,000 gallons of desalinated waster per day translates into almost one-third of the island's annual water consumption. Currently, the desalination plant is not in operation as a result of sufficient water supply on the island.- MWD is currently planning to build, operate and test a seawater desalination plant to provide a means for conducting research and development of advanced desalination processes. The demonstration plant would employ multi-effect distillation technologies to process 5 MGD (5,600 AFY) of seawater using heat from an existing adjacent coastal power plant. The results from the demonstration project could be used to assess the viability of a full scale desalination plant with a capacity of 50 to 100 MGD (56,000 to 112,000 AFY). A full scale desalination project can only feasibly be built in conjunction with renovation of coastal power plants scheduled around the year 2000. In addition, MWD along with the City of Long Beach, Central Basin MWD, West Basin MWD, and Southern California Edison (SCE) are currently completing feasibility studies on a 5 MGD seawater desalination plant at the SCE Alamitos generation station. 5. MANAGEMENT RESPONSE DURING DROUGHT OR OTHER EMERGENCIES Effective management of water supply deficiencies is one of the most important responsibilities of regional water agencies. Possible deficiencies in supply can be caused by; droughts, failures of major water transmission facilities during earthquakes, an acute contamination of supplies due to chemical spills, or other adverse conditions. Management response programs were initially developed during the drought of 1976- 1977 and have been expanded and refined over the past six years. Management techniques include provisions for increasing supply and for reducing demand. During the drought of 1976-1977, MWD was able to divert Colorado River water to the full capacity of its pumping facilities. As a result, it was able to release 320,000 AF of SWP water for use elsewhere in the State. In order to cope with the water supply shortfall beginning in 1991 and ending in June 1992, MWD adopted an Incremental Interruption and Conservation Plan (IICP). The IICP was designed to encourage member agencies to utilize water held in local groundwater and surface water storage reserves and promote consumer water conservation to reduce demands on imported sources during droughts. Each member agency was assigned a monthly target quantity of water and an annual discretionary pool based on the total amount of water which the agency purchased from MWD in 1989-90. The monthly target was established using "firm service" (that is, excluding agricultural and seawater barrier uses). Proportional reductions were then applied to each category ("firm" and "nonfirm"), with the proportions determined by which stage of the IICP was in effect. Changes to the target quantity was based on population growth, changes in local water supplies, conservation implementation, and reclamation. Excess use beyond the target quantity resulted in a surcharge for the excess quantity at double the base rate. During the operation of the IICP, almost all member agencies met their assigned targets. The overall success of the IICP is being reviewed by MWD. SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-29 Chapter Ten • Water Resources CV E. POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES In order to meet the future water demands of this region, the Water Resources Element identifies and addresses a number of key issues that are related to future development of water supplies. 1 . GROWTH MANAGEMENT a. Issue What is the relationship between growth management and water supply? Background• Growth related decisions have historically been addressed by local governments. Accommodating this growth and meeting all reasonable needs has been the expressed purpose of most water agencies. The three primary means of meeting water needs has been through: • Planning based on future water requirement projections. • Identifying various existing and adequate sources of supply. • Providing facilities for transmission, treatment, storage, and distribution. In the 1980s, water demand increased significantly in proportion to tremendous population growth. Coinciding with this growth, huge capital costs and a lengthy regulatory process of facility expansion made large scale projects increasingly difficult to accomplish. In addition, supply sources became less reliable, due to water quality and environmental concerns, especially during the drought period of 1987-91. Consequently, both general purpose government and water utilities have been confronted with the issue of supplying adequate amounts of wager and how it relates to growth management concerns. Public water agencies and other special districts do not have statutory or constitutional power to regulate land use. Water districts can only restrict service for utility related purposes, and must make certain that such restrictions will not burden existing users.- But, due to the decisions of recent court cases, general purpose governments can use service restrictions to implement land use decisions under the police power granted by Article M of the State Constitution. Tlue city of Santa Barbara is an example of a local government using their police power to maintain levels of water demand in the form of growth management controls to stem growth pressure from the sprawling edges of Los Angeles, and Ventura counties. Although there were plans to meet growing local needs by tapping new water sources, the residents of Santa Barbara resisted plans to connect the city to the SWP for years. The rationale for not connecting with the SWP, was that by agreeing to provide water, they would be promoting uncontrolled urban growth. Despite efforts to limit the availability of water supplies, growth continued in the city of Santa Barbara. In 1991, after long drought years, and strict use regulation, the residents voted to construct a desalination plant and connect to the SWP. Page 10-30 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources Water supply and urban growth are linked issues and are best addressed by greater coordination and communication between water agencies, land use agencies and general purpose governments. Consequently, MWD relies on SCAG and SANDAG for growth projections for its service area to determine future water demands and facility needs. To further integrate the regional planning effort, MWD is preparing this Water Resources Element and assisting SCAG to develop mitigation measures for water supply development for the RCP master environmental assessment and environmental impact report. The goal of the MWD water management program has been to maximize efficient use of existing supplies and to assure adequate supplies to meet future water demand." Due to the rapid growth of Southern California, meeting the growing demand for water has been an ongoing challenge. In addition, a number of concerns have been raised about how to efficiently prioritize and integrate infrastructure investment to support California's pending population growth and to provide a strong economic base. As a result, MWD's Board of Directors has adopted the following policy principles related to growth management. 1. Water supply is not a reason in and of itself to limit or control growth in California. There are sufficient water resources to accommodate continued population and economic growth through better management, including conservation, voluntary transfers and additional storage and conveyance facilities. Water supply for urban, agricultural and environmental uses will be adequate and reliable. 2. Growth management and the allocation and direction of development should be the responsibility of general purpose government. Utilities, including water purveyors, should provide adequate facilities to serve the projected growth at the state, regional and local levels. 3. For planning and infrastructure purposes, water supply should be treated as a utility not required to be a general purpose government plan element. However, water purveyors at the state, regional and local levels should be members of any proposed infrastructure planning structure to ensure optimum coordination and infrastructure resources investment. 4. Financing mechanisms should be developed for general purpose and special district governments to develop adequate facilities to serve the projected growth. 5. Infrastructure financing programs should provide for new growth to pay a "fair-share" relative to the total infrastructure program. 6. At the local level, water districts that participate in the coordinated development of a comprehensive plan, and demonstrate infrastructure needs to accommodate the local growth management plan, should be eligible for funding from any infrastructure pool or bank that is established to fund local infrastructure. SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-31 Chapter Ten • Wafer Resources 7. Market mechanisms to improve the efficiency in use of natural resources and public facilities such as water transfers should be encouraged. b. Planning Strategy: The MWD service area has a long history of economic and population growth. MWD is committed to continuing to accommodate population growth and to remain consistent with regional growth management plans, without becoming a major growth inducing force. One important aspect of meeting that challenge is close coordination with SCAG and SANDAG. MWD intends to continue to use growth projections developed by these agencies as the basis for its planning activities and to work with them to identify appropriate water supply mitigation measures for inclusion in regional growth management plans. MWD and its member agencies are undergoing an Integrated Resources Planning (IRP) process. The IR.P process will identify an appropriate resource mix that is regionally affordable and provides a reliable water supply to both areas of new growth and established communities - consistent with the growth management population projections. MWD will also be preparing a Long Range Finance Plan, which is linked to the IRP, that will identify a rate structure that assures that growth (new system demand) pays its fair share of the costs associated with providing expanded service and reliability. 2. WATER TRANSFER POLICIES a. Issue: What role will water transfers (also known as water marketing) take in the future to respond to the water needs of urban, agricultural and environmental users - statewide and in Southern California? Background• Although the concept of water transfers was developed over 10 years ago, the recent water shortages brought about by a drought period has made California increasingly interested in water transfers as an expedient means of alleviating these shortages. In April 1992, Governor Pete Wilson announced a Statewide Water Policy, which encouraged legislation proposing voluntary, environmentally safe transfers. The policy defines a transfer as the acquisition of short-or long-term supplies, agreements with water districts and individuals, and initiatives which involve management and market transactions for the purchase of water, water rights or land to increase supply. The debate has been extensive among politicians, economists, urban water users, environmentalists, and farmers who are all looking for ways to resolve the widening gap between available waiter supplies and increasing demand. Currently there are institutional and physical limits to water transfers. Several proposals are being debated in the legislature that could affect the price and availability of water transfers. One of the most significant legislative actions regarding water transfer is the recent passage of the Federal Central Valley Project Improvement Act. The availability of water to users or districts outside the Central Valley Project is at the crux of determining an approach to large-scale water transfers. Most major water transfer activities within Paige 10-32 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources the state will involve participation and cooperation of the State Water Project and/or the Central Valley Project as facilitators and wheelers of the transferred water to the receiving agency. Due to the recent severe drought period (1989 - 1992), the prevailing attitude has changed from how to establish these markets, to what type of water transfer system should be developed. Some of the key issues with the development of this system include: • Determining whether or not further facilities in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta would be necessary to support water transfers. • Mitigating environmental needs and concerns which may be caused by direct transfers. • Developing a means to address potential loss of income to third-party concerns. This would include; agricultural suppliers, farm workers, non-agricultural business, and fallout social and economic effects on rural communities dependent on agriculture. • Defining the level of involvement the state and local government should have in the transfer system. • Determining what power an irrigation or-urban water district should have over a transfer ` initiated by a member. These issues continue to be addressed in debates, local meetings, and state sessions. Perhaps the most useful policy tool is the, "Interim Guidelines for Implementation of the Water Transfer Provisions of the Central Valley Project Improvement Act" (Title XXKIV of Public Law 102-575). The most recent revision (dated February 19, 1993) of the stated objective is to: "...address all water transfers equitably, to provide for a more efficient and effective use of the water supply developed by the Central Valley Project, and to provide greater flexibility to water users in transferring water developed by the project." As the discussion deepens, there are many other issues of concern to this topic. For the most part, the current status is summarized in a statement made by Secretary of the Interior, Bruce Babbitt, "The issue is devising and creating a reasonable reallocation system. It won't be easy. In December, 1991 MWD's Board of Directors adopted a "Water Transfer Policy Statement" (Policy), (Metropolitan Administrative ` Code Section 4203) to guide MWD water transfer activities. In summary, the Policy states that the combined factors of continued population and economic growth and reductions in traditional water supply sources will require MWD to pursue additional supplemental water supplies to ensure the continued health of the Southern California economy. The Policy recognizes that water transfers from agricultural to urban uses will be a critical and necessary element of a comprehensive management plan that includes water conservation, reclamation and reuse, and infrastructure improvements. The Policy provides that MWD will vigorously pursue a wide range of voluntary transfer activities including fallowing of agricultural lands and transfers initiated by water rights holders. The Policy provides that such transfers will be designed to protect and where feasible, SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-33 Chapter Ten • Water Resources enhance environmental and groundwater resources. Finally, the Policy provides that efforts continue to develop for water transfers which seek to avoid unreasonable operational and financial impacts in the agricultural community. Planning Strategy: Water transfers will be an integral aspect of water supply in the future, as new water sources become more difficult and expensive to develop. It is therefore imperative that the most equitable system of transfers be developed so that agricultural uses do not literally get "bought-out" by the urban uses and that MWD maintain its commitment to developing transfers with willing partners. 3„ WATER SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS Issue Statement: What strategies can water agencies take for future development of water supplies and facilities in view of increasingly stringent environmental regulations? Background: Continual development of water supplies and facilities to transport, treat and store water is necessary to support the growing population and economic base of Southern California. On the other hand, increasingly striingent environmental regulations have, and will continue to have, impacts on development of the needed supplies and facilities. :strategies that will integrate environmental values and meet environmental regulations are essential for developing appropriate water supplies and maintaining the quality of life of the region. MWD recognizes that environmental responsibility is an essential component of developing and operating a reliable water supply for Southern California. Together with public support, responsiveness to environmental issues is an essential element of any project or program undertaken in the State. MWD also recognizes the need to be proactive in its approach to environmental needs and requirements, taking a leadership role, where possible, in the acceptable resolution of environmental issues affecting water in California. Significant environmental challenges remain to be resolved in the Delta and in the service area. _ An example of such a proactive approach is the Central Valley Project Improvement Act. It establishes an explicit, competing right of the natural environment. Together with the needs of urban and agricultural users, environmental needs_for available water supply will combine to challenge the ingenuity and creativity of MWD, its member agencies and all water users (urban, agricultural, and environmental) in the state and region in the fulfillment of their commitment to stewardship. Another example of a proactive stance on environmental issues is MWD's strategy in the development of the Domenigoni Valley Reservoir project to the south of the city of Hemet. MWD signed an agreement with wildlife agencies to establish a "Multi-species Habitat Conservation Plan for Southwestern Riverside County" to protect sensitive species of plants and wildlife near the site of the reservoir. The signatories of the agreement include the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, California Department of Fish and Game, Riverside Page 10-34 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan ` Chapter Ten • Water Resources County Habitat Conservation Agency, and Riverside County Regional Parks and Open Space District. With this conservation plan, there will be a total of nearly 20,000 contiguous acres of publicly owned open space extending from the Domenigoni Valley reservoir through the Shipley Reserve to MWD's Lake Skinner. As a result, the project had little to no dissent from environmentalists, state and federal regulatory agencies, local governments and nearby tribal councils. In addition, MWD has also established biodiversity management at two areas in Riverside County to mitigate impacts of the Domenigoni Valley reservoir and anticipated facility developments in western Riverside County. MWD, in partnership with the California Department of Fish and Game, Riverside County and the Nature Conservancy established the 9,000 acre, "Santa Rosa Plateau Mitigation Bank" preserve. The other area is a 5,000 acre "Lake Mathews Multi-species Habitat Conservation Plan". MWD is currently pursuing similar plans in southern Orange County and San Bernardino County. Metropolitan's member agencies have also adopted environmental values and considerations in their water supply development strategies. Some examples are the West Basin Recycling Project in the South Bay area of Los Angeles County and Eastern Municipal Water District's wetlands enhancement program using reclaimed water in Riverside County. Both projects have received statewide and national recognition for their environmental benefits. Planning Strategy: MWD integrates environmental values in its decision making procedure for water resources and facilities development. Environmental needs for available water supply and the protection of endangered species and their habitats offer a significant challenge to MWD and its member agencies to develop effective physical, institutional, and management solutions that lead to "win-win-win" outcomes for the environment, agricultural, and urban users. MWD intends to apply the same level of creativity and innovation to the development of effective environmental strategies that it has demonstrated in the development and implementation of large scale regional infrastructure projects. Federal and state environmental laws place the burden of proof on MWD to show that its proposed projects do not have significant adverse impacts on the environment. MWD has demonstrated and will continue to demonstrate its commitment to full compliance with environmental standards and to the implementation of measures needed to mitigate impacts. 4. DESALINATION a. Issue: How could desalination contribute to future water supply? Background: Desalination has intrigued engineers, politicians, and the public for years because of the tremendous possibility it offers as a means to increase water supply. Unfortunately, the large energy requirements of the current technology make the process too costly to implement, relative to imported supplies and more SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-35 Chapter Ten • Water Resources conventional local water supply development. Throughout the world however, desalination is an important source of usable water and accounts for more than three billion gallons per day from 3,500 plants.- Extensive research has developed ways to extract high percentages of inorganic and organic constituents from brackish groundwater and sea water. Of the various desalinatiion methods, the membrane processes (reverse osmosis and electrodialysis) offer the best potential to increase supply, especially by desalting brackish ground water. However, existence of high concentration of nitrate in local groundwater has promoted an increased effort to achieve new and more efficient membranes. The reverse osmosis method can also desalt domestic waste water which can then be injected into the local groundwater basin, and industrial discharge can be treated to reduce waste water and reused to supplement process water supplies. At the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, sea water is used in a reverse osmosis plant to provide water for on site power production. Local efforts in Southern California to desalt brackish groundwater and ocean water are being implemented and studied by MWD. Please refer to Section V, for a more detailed description of various efforts by MWD to utilize desalination programs and projects. In addition, research continues to study the disposal of brackish agricultural drainage. Although the drainage water contains toxic elements, it can be reclaimed through reverse osmosis. In spite of the great potential desalination has to offer to the existing water supply, there are a number of issues which need to be addressed in order for its full success. These issues include the following: (i) Regulatory and Institutional. The two primary issues related to the regulation of desalinated water quality include the level of salinity and related chemical constituents in the product water and the disposal of brine. Both the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency and the California Department of Health Services require that all brackish ground water or seawater desalination projects producing water for municipal water supply purposes meet all drinking water regulations. In addition, no brine discharge is allowed in any inland waterway. Seawater brine disposal is an issue being dealt with by Regional Water Quality Control Boards. This issue focuses on the dilution of the brine discharge and the potential impacts on the ocean biota. (ii) Technical Constraints. Current desalination processes are generally divided into four categories by water and process type: Brackish-Thermal, Brackish-Non-thermal, Seawater-Thermal, and _ Seawater-Non-thermal. The measure of source water is based on total dissolved solids (TDS) content and ranges from 500 mg/l for brackish to 50,000 mg/l for seawater. Among the various types of desalination processes, energy consumption accounts for a significant portion of operation and maintenance costs. Intake and pre-treatment is a function of the source water and desalination process. Most-thermal processes require less pre-treatment than non-thermal processes. The methods for brine disposal are critical to limiting impacts on local ground and surface water. For brine disposal, existing outfall facilities must be used because of the time, cost, and permit difficulties of constructing new ones. Interfacing with existing electric power plants along the California coastal zone is an opportunity for locating desalination plants. By operating jointly, cost savings may be realized by both plants. Other constraints include: corrosiveness of treated water in the system and the retrofitting of existing distribution systems to incorporate desalination facilities. Page 10-36 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources (iii) Economics. The costs associated with desalination are related to the source water quality, the desired product water quality, the treatment process, the installed capacity and the method of brine disposal. The total cost for desalination of brackish water ranges from 5350-1,000/acre-ft. Seawater ranges in cost from 51,300-2,400/acre-ft. These costs do not reflect the cost of pumping water back into the distribution system. In addition to operating costs, the capital investment to build desalination facilities adds to the unit cost of producing water. (iv) Environmental Issues. Among the various impacts to the environment associated with desalination plants are: construction disturbances, emissions, and interference; energy consumption and possible new power facilities, which may produce air emissions; biological resources effected by water source and brine disposal. Planning Strategy The potential for use of desalted water may increase as the available water supply continues to decrease. Several key factors that relate to the issue of increasing use of desalination include: reducing cost of operation by coordinating facilities with coastal electric power plants, integrating and refitting the existing distribution system, and pursuing a comprehensive and regional approach to this issue. MWD is currently supporting brackish groundwater desalination through its Groundwater Recovery Program (See Section V). MWD is also actively supporting and participating in research efforts for ocean desalination technology. 5. CONSERVATION OF STORM RUNOFF a.Issue• How can conservation of storm runoff enhance the region's water supply? Background: Through a system of natural basins, gravel pits, control channels, dams, and pumping facilities, much of the water that is typically headed for the sea can be retained for the replenishment of groundwater. Because of the specific geography and geology of the Los Angeles Basin, surrounding mountains release large amount of water during heavy rain periods. Prior to the creation of a network of flood control works in the early 1900s this region was prone to catastrophic floods.- The development of-the dams and flood control facilities led to a major program of artificially recharging the groundwater aquifers by spreading storm runoff and reclaimed wastewater at spreading basins and gravel pits. Spreading facilities are located throughout the region along main water paths and tributaries. The diversion and overflow of water into these spreading grounds resulting from storms is the objective of the artificial recharge program. Once water accumulates in the spreading areas it can percolate into the underground aquifers. This process contributes to the groundwater supply throughout the region. The three major river systems in SCAG's region and the MWD service area are the San Gabriel River, SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-37 Chapter Ten • Water Resources the Santa Ana River, and the Los Angeles River. The three rivers have different conservation rates and effims as described below. 1. The San Gabriel Watershed is operating at approximately an 80 percent conservation rate (conservation of storm runoff. This high rate of conservation is due to excellent geology for spreading and percolation of runoff water. Extensive facilities include a series of dams in the San Gabriel Canyon, San Gabriel River spreading and recharge facilities, and the Montebello Forebay facilities. This system recharges between 200,000 to 250,000 acre-feet per year of water. During very wet years, such as 1992-93, nearly 400,000 acre-feet reached the spreading basin system.- The system is operated by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works. 2. Orange County has a high rate of conserving runoff water in the Santa Ana River due to an extensive system of collecting basins, off-river diverting channels, debris management (to scrape basins), and pervious riverbed for recharge. The Santa Ana Watershed has nearly a 95 percent conservation rate for runoff water and is operated by the Orange County Water District. The network of Santa Ana 'Lakes' or basins lead to a final basin which is equipped with a pump back system to recycle remaining runoff into the network. 3. The Los Angeles River Watershed is operating at approximately a 10 percent conservation rate. This lower rate of conservation is due to a lack of spreading facilities. All of the recharge facilities are located in the San Fernando Valley and are operated by LADWP. The remaining length of the Los Angeles River south of the San Fernando Valley is lined and therefore does not permit percolation. Total normal runoff into the ocean is about 236,000 acre-feet per year. 4. Surface water conservation is practiced along the Santa Clara River in Ventura County and the Santa Margarita - San Luis Rey watershed in the Riverside and San Diego Counties. The United Water Conservation District, through its Vern Freeman Diversion Project, can direct up to 133,000 AF in wet years for groundwater recharge. The Santa Margarita - San Luis Rey Watershed Planning Agency is a joint power composed of water and wastewater agencies that manage the streams and groundwater basins in the watershed. _ In addition, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, in cooperation with the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works has initiated the Los Angeles County Drainage Area Water Conservation and Supply Reconnaissance Study to identify potential alternatives to capture stormwater runoff, and increase the water supply through modifications to the existing Los Angeles County Drainage Area System. The prehminary study will determine whether economic, hydrological, engineering, environmental, and current-use considerations are sufficiently favorable to recommend proceeding to a feasibility phase investigation. In the future, continued and increased conservation efforts depend on several factors. Major debris management, or scrape programs, are needed to keep percolation at existing recharge basins at optimum levels. It is also important to protect recharge areas from potential contaminants in urban runoff. Large Page 10-38 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan - Chapter Ten • Water Resources scale approaches to conservation have been proposed by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works to address the lost runoff from the Los Angeles River watershed. The creation of a fresh water harbor at the mouth of the river, in Long Beach Port, has been proposed as means of capturing 60,000 to 200,000 acre-feet per year.- Planning Strategy: It is imperative to maintain existing recharge basins in the San Gabriel and Santa Ana river systems at optimum percolation rates with debris management programs and prevent potential contamination of groundwater from urban runoff into recharge areas. Due to a majority of the water from the Los Angeles River being lost to the ocean, different alternatives have been developed for capturing more of the Los Angeles River's runoff. Specific projects which would afford an increase in storm runoff capture are to develop a portion of the Long Beach Harbor (beyond the mouth of the Los Angeles River) into a freshwater detention basin to hold the water and to develop a tunnel to channel the water to a nearby groundwater recharge facility. Furthermore, maximizing use of existing dams and reservoirs capacities could increase groundwater recharge. 6. POTENTIAL FOR INCREASES IN THE USE OF RECLAIMED WATER a.Issue• What is the potential of increasing the use of reclaimed water? Description: Reclaimed water has been used as a nonpotable water supply source in California since the early 1960s. As discussed in Section III, about 250,000 AFY of reclaimed water is currently used within MWD's service area and 675,000 AFY is expected to be developed by the year 2010. Over half of the existing and projected reclaimed water is used for recharging groundwater basins. The second largest current use is golf course and greenbelt irrigation, with the remainder used for industrial purposes. Although reclaimed water use has increased significantly since the mid-1970s, there are still factors which stand in the way of greater use. The issues of constraint to reclaimed water use were examined in a plan prepared by the joint effort of the State Water Conservation Coalition's Reclamation/Reuse Task Force and the Bay Delta Reclamation Sub-work Group. Their plan, "Water Recycling 2000: California's Plan for the Future," was prepared in September 1991. As part of the plan, a survey was conducted to identify the key factors which limit their ability to construct reclamation facilities. The major factors included: riJ Funding. The survey indicated that funding is a significant barrier to developing reuse. The lack of an extensive infrastructure to deliver reclaimed water from the source to customers tends to increase the price of using reclaimed water above the fresh-water alternative. This disparity should lessen as the cost of finding new fresh water sources increases. Furthermore, the current availability of funds to construct reclamation facilities is scarce, and will need to be increased. SCAG 0 Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-39 L Chapter Ten • Water Resources - r1i) Regulatory. Some constraints come from policies, procedures, and other activities of regulatory agencies. Implementing a new reclamation project often involves approval from a number of regulatory agencies including the State Water Resources Control Board, Regional Water Quality Control Board, State Department of Health Services, and County Health Departments. Timely and consistent reviews are essential to maximize reclaimed water use. riii) Institutional. There is a need for interagency coordination to accomplish the development and implementation of reclaimed water facilities. The most common example on interagency coordination is where the wastewater management agency which produces the reclaimed water is not the water purveyor within the reuse area. Coordination and cooperation between both agencies is vital to the success of projects. In developing communities that desire to increase use of reclaimed water, communication and coordination among land use planning agencies, water reclamation agencies and water purveyors are key to maximize water reuse. Reclamation projects may also involve two or more cities or counties as either users or producers - again coordination is essential for efficient project development. fly) Public acceptance. It would be difficult for any local government or special district to site, finance, construct and operate a water reclamation project without public acceptance. Public acceptance is not a straightforward issue in that a variety of interest groups and community groups sometimes have conflicting interests. One group may support the use of reclaimed water, but object to the siting of the project in its community ("not in my backyard"). Health concerns of the public must also be addressed to increase public acceptance, particularly for potable reuse. Planning Strategy: Reclaimed water is a reliable water resource which can be used to augment existing supplies. "Water Recycling 2000" suggested that statewide water resources planning agencies and other state and federal agencies adopt policies that identify reclaimed water as a resource. Furthermore, the plan gives seventy recommendations to promote increased use of reclaimed water. Among them are: Political Support. A need by policy makers at all levels of government to strongly commit to and support reclaimed water development. For example, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has initiated a three-year study of regional wastewater reuse opportunities in Southern California demonstrating that reclaimed water development is not just a local or regional issue. Benefit Cost Analysis. A better understanding of who benefits and who pays for reclamation should be initiated from both a local and statewide perspective. Funding Issues. Funding is considered the number one barrier to the use of reclaimed water; therefore, new funding sources (such as bonds, grants and loans), a new rate structure which encourages reclaimed water use, and provision of power to reclamation projects should be initiated. Federal cost-sharing would greatly encourage local reclaimed water development. An example of such cost-sharing is included under the Central Valley Improvement Act (H.R. 429 Title XVI (P.L. 102-575) where federal funds would be available for 25 percent of the construction costs of the West Basin Recycling Project, the City of Los Angeles' East Valley Project, and the San Diego Clean Water Program. Page 10-40 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources Regulatory Issues. Involvement, approval and support of state and local health departments, Regional Water Quality Control Boards and other related agencies will be crucial for the implementation of reclaimed water projects. Furthermore, establishment of a formal process to expedite reclamation projects will be helpful. Public Acceptance. Public involvement in all stages of project development through citizen advisory committees, public workshops, education programs, and other environmental review processes would tremendously improve public acceptance. Education of the public on the safety of using reclaimed water will be necessary for increased use and acceptance of reclaimed water as a plausible potable resource. F. CURRENT PLANNING PROCESS The basic goal of MWD and its member agencies is to provide reliable water supplies to meet the water needs of its service area at the lowest possible cost. To achieve this goal, it is important to evaluate a diverse mix of resources that will balance costs, reliability, risks, environmental considerations, and other factors. MWD's service area has a wide range of resources and demand management strategies including: Colorado E River Aqueduct supplies, State Water Project supplies, reclamation and reuse, groundwater conjunctive use and recovery, water conservation, desalination, development of surface storage facilities, etc., as described in previous chapters. Virtually all of these strategies and resources appear worthwhile when considered in isolation. However, implementation of all of these strategies would result in duplicated efforts, unnecessary costs, and unacceptable water rate increases. As a result, MWD and its member agencies are currently implementing an Integrated Resources Planning (IRP) process. 1 . INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS Integrated resource planning is a procedure to develop efficient and reliable resource supply plans to meet customer demands. Specifically, it calls for the appropriate mix of supply sources and demand management strategies to meet a stated reliability objective. IRP encompasses evaluation of water demands, least-cost analysis of supplies, an objective decision making process, evaluation of risk, and environmental, institutional, operational and financial concerns. Although MWD has been following the logic of IRP in its water supply planning for many years, increasing E financial constraints and environmental concerns requires a more rigorous evaluation of water resource development. The IRP process is shown graphically in Figure 10-6. At the center of this planning process is the adoption of a quantified level of service (reliability) objective by the MWD Board of Directors. This reliability objective provides a specific and measurable performance goal SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-41 Chapter Ten • Water Resources Figure 10-6 7111E INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS Level of Service CRA California Local CIP Strategies Aqueduct Resources Strategies Strategies Strategies IRP Assessment of Alternative Resources Mixes Financial and Water Rate Implications (Long Range Finance Plan) Is the Resource Mix Practical -- Affordable, Regionally NO Balanced and the Best Revise Objective Regional Reliability Plan? YES Level of Service Page 10-42 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources for MWD service. This objective provides a signal when additional water resources are required, and whenadditional expenditures would constitute an over-investment in reliability and unnecessary increase in water rates. To achieve the specified reliability objective, the region can utilize a wide range of resource strategies — actions that could increase imported supplies, local water resources, or demand management efforts. These strategies fall into the four general categories — Colorado River Aqueduct supplies, California Aqueduct (State Water Project) deliveries, local water resources (including groundwater, local surface water, water conservation, water reclamation, and desalination), and capital improvement programs. The next step in the IRP process is to compile and evaluate alternate resource mixes representing various levels of development of complementary resources. The evaluation process takes into consideration the variability and uncertainties associated with projected yield of each water resource and projected water demands. Evaluation criteria for alternate resource mixes include: ability to meet reliability goal, regional costs of development, potential risks, equity for MWD customers, environmental and institutional considerations, impact on local economy, and public acceptance. The final step in the planning process is a careful examination of the financial implications of the resource alternative, and the determination of the rate increases required for its implementation. If MWD's Board of Directors determines that the preferred plan would not lead to unreasonable rate increases, then the resource alternative will be implemented with detailed planning steps, environmental documentation, and funding appropriations. If the resultant resource mix is deemed too expensive, then the reliability objective must be revised with appropriate modifications in the resource mix to reduce costs. 2. PLANNING SCHEDULE MWD and its member agencies formally started the IRP process in June 1993. By October 1993, the work group had developed several alternate resources mixes for analysis and evaluation. The schedule calls for the determination of a "preferred mix" that meets the existing reliability objective and ranks highest with existing evaluation criteria by February 1994. The "planned mix" that reflects additional considerations and/or revised reliability objective is expected by July 1994. The product of the IRP process will be a resource mix that will meet the desired reliability goal at least cost to the region with considerations to the environment, risks, and other criteria. This resource mix will become the guideline to demand-management strategies, water supply augmentation plans, and development of capital facilities. Since July 1992 and prior to the formal initiation of the IRP process, Metropolitan and member agencies had been engaged in a Southern California Water Resources Strategic Assessment. The mission of the Strategic Assessment is to assess opportunities to optimize local water resources development. In 1993, the effort was expanded to the IRP process incorporating findings from the earlier study. In addition, concurrent to the IRP process, Metropolitan and its member agencies are reviewing Metropolitan's capital facility requirements through the Distribution System Overview Study. The IRP resource mix and associated costs, and costs for facility development, will also become the basis for MWD's Financial Structure Study and Long-Range Financial Plan. SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-43 AW Chapter Ten • Water Resources G. WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTSIDE OF THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT While the MWD serves a significant portion of the SCAG region, many of the communities within SCAG are served by water districts outside of the MWD service area. The water agencies outside of MWD, range from relatively small water suppliers, such as Littlerock Creek Irrigation District, which serves a small area of Northern Los Angeles County, to very large, primarily agricultural water suppliers, such as the Imperial Iff ligation District, which provides water for the vast agricultural acreage in Imperial County. Many of these agencies face important supply and demand issues and will continue to face these issues as the region grows. To reflect these agencies" concerns in the water resources chapter, SCAG conducted a water supply and demand survey of 14 such agencies. The survey collected information on projected water supply and demand in ;several sectors to the year 2020. In addition, SCAG solicited input from these agencies regarding their major concerns related to future water supply and demand. The results of this survey are summarized in this chapter. SCAG received input from the following water agencies whose approximate boundaries are marked on Figure 10--7: Antelope Valley-East Kern Water Agency, Bard Iffigation District, Casitas Municipal Water District, Coachella Valley Water District, Crestline-Lake Arrowhead Water Agency, Desert Water Agency, Imperial Irriigation District, Littlerock Creek Irrigation District, Mojave Water Agency, Palmdale Water District, Palo Verde Irrigation District, San Bernardino Municipal Water District and the San Gorgonio Pass Water Agency. These agencies span a wide range in both size and in the type of community served. For example, of the primarily agricultural agencies, the Bard Irrigation District supplies approximately 7,600 acres of crops, while Imperial Irrigation provides water for 500,000 acres. Among the other agencies surveyed, Crestline-Lake Affowhead has a relatively limited population and only one source of supply. San Bernardino Municipal Water District, on the other hand, encompasses 17 other agencies, relies on several water sources, and supplies one of the fastest growing urban regions in Southern California. It is important to note that the completeness of the information received ranged considerably from agency to agency. Some agencies, particularly larger ones, have conducted more comprehensive planning efforts regarding projected supply and demand, while others have less information. Thus, it is difficult to draw conclusions from summaries of the data, particularly from the data in the more distant future years. However, the information does provide a general indication of supply and demand issues for many of the agencies. For future updates to the RCP, collecting projections of water supply and demand using growth projections consistent with the RCP's growth forecasts will be essential. Page 10-44 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Q Chapter Ten • Water Resources z i cz - �o cc / I 0 Q o ' O i i i U i M �' i m O . -2 Z. m ECG a:U o ' I ; d I "2 i „ : co C: •------------ CD 0 mU i;, �G O c 3 i CD O I I � i � ■� I I I CO d CC I n j I Lt. I ` � i Q -- -� I - -- - Cn I MR.•o -- -_� I :3 c =2 • a 3 � � E .s z � 8 QQ� > r SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-45 Chapter Ten • Water Resources - 1 . WATER DEMAND IN THE NON-MWD AREA Several factors contribute to the demand for water outside of the MWD service area, including population growth, extent of urbanization, agricultural acreage, and the cost of water. The non-MWD area will undergo significant populations increases in future years. Along with these population increases will be similar increases in households and businesses, all of which will be demanding more water. The SCAG survey sent to the various water agencies requested historic information for 1990 and projections for the years 1995, 2000, 2010, and 2020 on service area population, urban water use irrigated acreage, and agricultural use (see Tables 10-11 through 10-15). The survey data show important changes in the type and amount of water that will be demanded over the planning period. The most significant difference between the MWD and non-MWD service areas is the agricultural demand for waster. While only 10 percent of all water use in the MWD area was for agricultural purposes in 1990, the agencies surveyed outside of the MWD service area reported that approximately 80 percent of the water was usixi for agriculture in the same year. A considerable portion of this agricultural water is used in the Imperial Valley and supplied by the Imperial Irrigation District. Supplying over 500,000 irrigated acres, the Imperial Irrigation District used almost 3 million acre-feet of water in 1990. Other significant agricultural suppliers include the Palo Verde Irrigation District, the Coachella Valley Water District, the Mojave Water District, and the Bard Irrigation Districts. Urban water demand is currently greatest in Coachella Valley Water District, which serves the growing Coachella Valley area, and the San Bernardino Municipal Water Agency, which also serves a rapidly growing areas. Although the completeness of the future projections is hampered by incomplete survey results, some general conclusions can be drawn. First, agricultural demand is not projected to increase over the planning period. For example, the Imperial Irrigation District projects no change in agricultural demand over this period. The Coachella Valley Water District projects a decrease in demand from 257,722 acre-feet in 1990 to 199,200 acre-feet in 2010. The San Bernardino Municipal Water Agency and the Mojave Water Agency also predict a decrease over this period. Urban water use, however, is projected to increase significantly within many of the agencies over this period. _ Those agencies predicting significant increases in urban water demand include the Coachella Valley Water District, which projects an increase from 187,478 acre-feet in 1990 to 328,000 acre-feet in 2010. Other significant increases are projected in the San Bernardino Municipal Water Agency, the Mojave Water Agency, the Crestline-Lake Arrowhead Water Agency, and the Casitas Municipal Water District among others. These increases in demand reflect projected increases in population in many of the desert communities, such as the Coachella Valley. Overall, these increases in urban demand appear to overshadow an,Y potential decreases in agricultural demand resulting in total increases in water demand over the planning period. Again, due to incomplete survey results, exact predictions of the total shift in demand cannot be made. Page 10-46 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources 2. WATER SUPPLY IN THE NON-MWD AREA With the exception of the Los Angeles Aqueducts, the sources of water outside of the MWD service area are the same as those inside the service area. They include the State Water Project, the Colorado River, local surface and groundwater, and reclaimed wastewater. The survey requested information from each agency on the 1990 and projected supply of water from each of these sources (see Tables 10-11 through 10-15). In addition, information on the 1990 and projected future overdraft was requested. Overdraft refers to groundwater extracted beyond the "safe yield" from a particular aquifer. As indicated in the survey, five of the agencies rely on a single source of water. Three of the agricultural agencies, Bard, Palo Verde and the Imperial Irrigation District derive their supply exclusively from the Colorado River. The Crestline-Lake Arrowhead Water Agency, on the other hand is entirely dependent upon the State Water Project water, while the San Gorgonio Pass Water Agency only used groundwater in 1990. Most other agencies surveyed use multiple sources of supply. The survey also shows how the reliance on a particular source or sources is anticipated to change over time. The San Gorgonio Pass Water Agency, for example, plans to supplement its existing groundwater supply with SWP and wastewater reclamation, which should give the agency greater flexibility to meet projected demand. The agencies surveyed indicate that the proportion of water from any given source is anticipated to change over time. An increase in the use of SWP water is generally projected to account for increased demand, while the amount from other sources remains fairly constant or declines slightly. As stated previously, larger agencies have more comprehensive projections. Many agencies project an increase in the amount of reclaimed water. In 1990, only three agencies noted reclaimed water as a source of supply. By 2010, five agencies projected production of reclaimed water, and the quantities produced increased significantly. Through the time period 1990-2020, five of the agencies acknowledge an overdraft situation exists or will exist from groundwater basins which are the principal source of supply. These same agencies are taking positive steps to develop or increase alternative sources of supply. Measures include connection with SWP and aggressive development of wastewater treatment for reclaimed water. 3. ISSUES AFFECTING WATER SUPPLY IN THE NON-MWD AREA Local agencies and subregions have identified several current and future constraints to providing an adequate water supply. Several of these are similar to those identified in the MAID section of this component, while others are unique to the specific water provider. The major issues include: a. The Reliability'of Imported Sources Concern over the reliability of imported sources of water is perhaps the major concern of non-MWD agencies. All but three of the agencies currently rely on imported water for the majority of their supply. E In addition to direct water supply, many of these agencies also rely on imported water for groundwater recharge. Thus, future reliability of these sources is an important issue. SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-47 g I $ Ilk 101E k 9i r- f L %M 44 44 M M : = Ict cc u a ba O O O p •� O QQ QQ QQ 8 E N .s e+ � V O A � QQ cr h n f1 f 7 W r I N 3 f N N N N f yy iK L' S Ji Y a q� Sri 31, Y p� .} • 4 •� N � S z . Sm Page 10-48 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan . CL �+3 Gl z < %M n f f V b r N N M z < e N f 8 fey b Y C4 0 3 z < ri C - z < 0 z < z < z < WN a > t vi e E _ o o $ 0 0 0 o o 8 d z < z z < u oG _ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 � z < � a S o � y Is = u cis � •V1 N 3 Z < N f N z < C Q � r ua3 z < Y 9 "t Z < N r H 3 _ � N � N r • Q �• V Wi 8 h f 7 7 . z < z < E ` • Y pp r7 y � � • A S •7 ypp < Y •F MG ,• . .'.� �� E ; � s � � Y •2 � - 3 .� ; .� � a � Yi � Z 3 a3 tS5 u3 a 6 SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 9 Page 10-49 a s ° N Wi F 3 Z < n + N ^ N N N C Al !V o _ 8 is N .o Z < i r r g s s It A on s_ a c� O Q O O O a o 0 E U : is C. is cc O • A 3 z < r z < Q s is > - oZ3 z < Y s 3 ^^g g s en 4 g M A C A S > n e� eP+� N 25 n 25 E •s tS > ,g h ^ > � > a � y E u ; � • sue �3 � � 33 � < 3 � � . 3 � � a ,• .. i � e 0 • s i i Page 10-50 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan NOW" W1 a W1 15 •� 8 G }QS 8 �O �y C 3a z < � O• « z < .� « h O� g ° ° 0 o e Q o O a z < g eg z < z < � a ° ° 25 o 0 0 0 a� � �„ c A O u 3 � •5 "t r o $� o 0 0 0 8 0 o u cd c� a3 z < h fft r 8 r� 3 3 as � � ^ � � •� 3 �� �o a o O r 7 a43 u ub u3 � b d db3 JZ < � � LE SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-51 Z3 z < h z < z < a z < z < g Q h Q 8 D3P X < X < X < r • %0 n CS on fn h N O o o Q o Q o 0 0 0 g U d 3 Z < = • g z < E r � N �2, 25 25 SStt r: fft z < cc z 3 V ° O O O O O O � z < y 3 Z < N f A � 3 C W s 3 C C E- - � 08 �S < a L s 4y3 _ 3 E - a Y a3 cZ4 ua v3 9 ;36 Page 10-52 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Ten • Water Resources Much of the concern related to future imported water supply concerns SWP deliveries. The primary concern related to the SWP is the restrictions on supplies due to environmental concerns associated with the Bay-Delta region in Northern California. This issue is discussed in more detail in MWD's water resources component. Another important potential impediment to SWP deliveries to non-MWD agencies is a potential for an increase in SWP demand by the City of Los Angeles. Restrictions on supplies from the Los Angeles Aqueducts are projected to result in an increase in demand for additional sources of water in Los Angeles, including an increase in demand for SWP water. This may affect the total availability of SWP water to other agencies in the region. Finally, concerns were expressed regarding the ability of current facilities to deliver the full water potential of the SWP and An issue of reliability was also raised over the Colorado River supply by one agency. The concern was raised over the Bureau of Reclamation's attempt to revise water right agreements along the Colorado River. If water rights are amended, the possibility of reduced or fluctuating supplies from this source exist. Again, this issue is discussed in more detail in MWD's water section. b. Groundwater Quality Groundwater is a critical component of the water supply to the region, indeed some areas of the region are completely dependent upon groundwater for all their potable water. Groundwater is a vital source of supply F to many areas in the SCAG region outside of MWD, and is used for both urban and agricultural consumption. The major concerns regarding groundwater quality include contamination, overdraft and increasing salinity and mineral levels. Perhaps the major concern of groundwater in the SCAG region is the actual and potential contamination by nitrates, and various other fertilizers, and by solvents and other industrial by-products from activities on the surface above these basins. When groundwater is contaminated, the water cannot be used for potable water without remediation. In addition many of the groundwater basins are used conjunctively, i.e. the basins are used as storage for excess water from the SWP as well as storm runoff. When these basins are contaminated, any water stored by conjunctive use is also impacted. During an extended drought, this "extra" water becomes crucial to the water supply situation for the entire region. Casitas Municipal Water District, Coachella Valley Water District, Desert Water Agency, and Mojave Water Agency specifically all reported overdraft conditions existing or likely to exist over the next thirty years. Casitas has problems with the loss of wells in the Channel Islands District due to migration of seawater = through the aquifer created by pressure imbalance due to overpumping. Other agencies cite concerns over greater pumping costs due to lowered water tables and increased amounts of totally dissolved solids within the pumped groundwater. c. Drinking Water Quality Standards Another issue cited by several water providers is the increasing costs of meeting treatment requirements under Federal and State drinking water laws. In particular, many agencies cited EPA's Surface Water Treatment _ Rule as being an important factor in potentially increasing the costs of water. This rule requires that drinking water systems reliant on surface water to install "basic" water filtration technology that addresses the most prominent biological contaminants found in drinking water supplies, namely fecal coliform, giardia, and SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 • Page 10-53 i Chapter Ten • Water Resources cryptosporidium. The rule specifies performance criteria for filtration and disinfection. For systems required to use filtration, a 99.9 percent removal and/or inactivation must be achieved. Complying with these regulations are costly, particularly for small water providers. Many smaller agencies, lacking the funding resources for major capital improvements, have responded to these mandates with an increase in the application of disinfectants. However, EPA limits on disinfectant by-products may make such treatment strategies unallowable. Additional federal funding for upgrading treatment systems may assist in meeting the demands of smaller providers, however it is unlikely to cover all costs of needed upgrades. Page 10-54 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan i Chapter Ten • Water Resources I ENDNOTES 1. Preliminary population projections shown in SCAG's Regional Comprehensive Plan indicate a regional total of 20.5 million persons by the year 2010. 2. An acre foot (AF) is the amount of water which would cover an area of one acre (roughly the size of a football field) to a depth of one foot. An acre foot is equivalent to about 326,169 gallons. Large volume water usage is typically expressed in hundreds of cubic feet (CCF), acre feet (AF), or millions of acre feet (MAF). 3. California Metropolitan Water District Act, Chapter 429, Statutes of 1927, Section 3. 4. Planning and Management Consultants, Ltd., Interim Report No. 4, June 1991. 5. State Water Contractors, Current and Projected Water Needs in the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California Service Area ,WRINT SWC Exhibit 3B, Bay-Delta Hearing, June 1992. Demand factor based on Center For the Continuing Study of the California Economy projections using 1980 dollars. 6. Dziegielseski, Ben; Opitz, Eva; and Rodrigo, Dan, Seasonal Components of Urban Water Use in Southern California, Planning and Management Consultants, Ltd., Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, March, 1990. Weighted averages were computed using data from 28 Southern California cities using the 1987 volume of seasonal use as the weighing factor. F 7. State Water Contractors, Interim Hearing, WRINT SWC Exhibit 10 June 1992 Update. 8. Southern California Gas Company, 1993. 9. Thomas Anne, Es., 1991, "No Water, No Growth: What's the Connection?, California Water Reporter, November 1991, pp. 23-27. 10. Program goal statement as part of 'The Regional Urban Water Management Plan for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California', November 1990, p. 73. 11. "Legislation Policy Principles', delivered to the MWD Board of Directors by General Manager. Metropolitan Water District: March 9, 1993, p.2. 12. "Changes in the Central Valley Project", Western Water, Water Education Foundation, Sacramento, CA: May/June 1992, p.4. 13. "California Water: Looking to the Future," Department of Water Resources State of California. Bulletin 160-87, Sacramento: November 1987, pp. 55-56. SCAG • Regional Comprehensive Plan Draft December 1993 0 Page 10-55 Chapter Ten • Water Resources 14. The Los Angeles County Department of Public Works (LAC/DPW) has documented the history of implementation of the flood control system. See: "Conserving Water in Los Angeles County" and "The San Gabriel River and Montebello Forebay Water Conservation System." 15. Values from LAC/DPW documents discussion with DPW staff. 16. A description and proposal of this project and various alternatives was presented in 1991 to the County Board of Supervisors. Page 10-56 • December 1993 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan r WATER QUALITY • Introduction • Purpose of the Water Quality Chapter • Current Water Quality Goals and Objectives Under Existing Federal and State Law • Water Resources in the SCAG Region • Water Quality in the SCAG Region • Current Framework for Water Quality Planning and Management • Regional Issues for Improved Water Quality Planning and Management • Recommendations and Policy Options • Integration of Water Quality and Other Regional Issues A. INTRODUCTION t While providing an adequate supply of water has long been one of the primary challenges facing the region, maintaining the quality of the water in the region has become an increasingly important issue. Water serves many functions in the region. It is used by households for drinking and other purposes; it is relied upon by farmers to irrigate crops; it is critical to commercial and industrial operations. It also provides important recreational benefits, for activities such as swimming, fishing, surfing and sailing. Aesthetically, Southern California's rivers, streams, lakes, and oceans are an integral part of the natural landscape that has long drawn people to the region. Maintaining clean water is an important goal for the future success of Southern California. Yet, the historical growth and urbanization in the SCAG region has often adversely affected water resources. More people have 4 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 11-1 L Chapter Eleven • Water Quality meant more sewage, and increased amounts of wastewater discharged into our water bodies. Urbanization has altered many of the natural filtration systems that maintain the quality of the water and has increased the amount of runoff pollution. Past industrial practices have left major underground aquifers unusable; aquifers that are relied upon by millions of residents for their drinking water. Recent years, however, have resulted in many changes leading to improved water quality. With the assistance of federal funding, wastewater treatment has drastically improved during the past 15 years. New hazardous waste management practices have significantly reduced the likelihood that current industrial practices will contaminate groundwater supplies. Also, there is a growing awareness and scientific understanding of the relationship among water quality, the surrounding habitat, and land use. While the successes are noteworthy;, new challenges still remain in the region. These issues include addressing and financing the control of non-point source pollution, such as stormwater runoff, paying for the cleanup of contaminated groundwater basins; and balancing the costs of water pollution control with other regional objectives. This chapter examines these and other issues. Under Section 208 of the Clean Water Act, SCAG is the designated agency responsible for developing a Waste Treatment Management Plan for the region. The 208 plan is designed to provide a comprehensive planning framework for both point and nonpoint source water pollution. Specific planning requirements include, but are not limited to, identifying needed treatment works to meet anticipated needs over a 20 year period, the identification of contruction priorities for the region, procedures and methods to control nonpoint source pollution from agriculture, mining and other sources. SCAG prepared the Areawide Waste Treatment Management Plan in 1979 and made amendments to the plan in 1981. This chapter, while not a comprehensive update to the 208 plan, addresses similar issues, including a regional framework for the expansion of wastewater treatment capacity. B. PURPOSE OF THE WATER QUALITY CHAPTER The water quality chapter is not intended to be a prescriptive plan for addressing water quality issues in the region. Many public agencies in the region have responsibility for planning for and maintaining the quality of the region's water. Instead, the chapter is intended to provide a regional perspective on current water quality issues and the plans and programs for addressing these issues, and to better clarify the relationship between water quality and other regional concerns. Accordingly, the chapter is intended to accomplish the following: • Identify the current water quality goals and objectives for the region as established under existing law. • Provide an inventory of current water quality problem areas in the region. • Identify and describe the various plans and programs affecting water quality in Southern California. • Raise some regional issues associated with maintaining and improving water quality in the region including issues in which water quality goals and policies interact with other regional goals and policies. • Provide a framework. for ensuring that growth in wastewater treatment capacity is consistent with regional growth projections. Page 11-2 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Eleven • Water Quality • Provide recommendations and policy options for improving the region's water quality and the current system for managing water quality. C. CURRENT WATER QUALITY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES UNDER EXISTING FEDERAL AND STATE LAW Both the federal Water Pollution Control Act (commonly referred to as the "Clean Water Act") and the state law on water quality (the Porter-Cologne Water Quality Act) establish goals and objectives for water quality. These two laws provide much of the legal basis for clean water programs in the region and, therefore, the goals and objectives established in these laws guide most of the region's clean water programs. 1 . GOALS The Clean Water Act was initially passed in 1972 and has been amended several time thereafter. The law creates several regulatory requirements and programs and provides grants to state and local governments to finance clean water projects. The primary goal of the Clean Water Act is the following: • To restore and maintain the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the nation's water.' The central state law governing water quality is the Porter-Cologne Water Quality Act. The Act was passed in 1970 and established the State Water Resources Control Board and the various Regional Water Quality Control Boards, the primary state agencies responsible for maintaining water quality. The goal of the State and Regional Boards under the Porter-Cologne Act can be summarized as follows: • To achieve and maintain water quality objectives that are necessary to protect all beneficial uses of all waters. 2. OBJECTIVES The specific objectives for water quality in the region under current law are identified in the various Regional Water Quality Control Board Basin Plans. These plans, which are described in more detail below, provide specific objectives for various water bodies. These objectives are the limits or levels of water quality constituents or characteristics established for the protection of beneficial uses. Beneficial uses include the various current or potential uses of a waterbody, including, but not limited to domestic use, agricultural and industrial supply, power generation, recreation, aesthetic navigation, and preservation and enhancement of fish, wildlife, or other quality resources. Each waterbody may have a different set of beneficial uses and, therefore, different water quality objectives. A summary of the water quality objectives for waterbodies in the SCAG region as contained in the Regional Basin Plans is included in the background document for the Water Quality chapter. 'See Federal Water Pollution Control Act, i S 101(a). SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 11-3 Chapter Eleven • Water Quality D. WATER RESOURCES IN THE SCAG REGION Despite the perception that the Southern California region has little of its own water, the area includes a wide array of rivers, lakes, streams, groundwater basins and, of course, oceans. The major surface water features of the region are identified) in the map in Figure 11-1. The water resources in the region include the following. 1 . SURFACE WA7rER Surface water refers to the system of lakes, rivers, streams, and creeks in the region. These systems can be divided into hydrologic basins, or integrated systems that drain a specific area. Many of the surface water systems in the region have been developed into a series of dams, flood control channels, and spreading grounds. Hence, only a portion of the natural runoff actually flows through these river systems to the ocean. In several rivers, discharges from wastewater treatment plants may provide the majority of water flow during the dry season. The Santa Clara River Basin includes the Ventura and Santa Clara rivers. The Ventura River has Matillja Lake. and Lake Casitas on its tributaries. The main channel of the Santa Clara River has no lakes or reservoirs, although two of the Santa Clara's tributaries, Castaic and Piru have been dammed. Lake Hughes, Munz Lake, and Elizabeth Lake have been created by the San Andreas Fault. Elizabeth Lake drains into Castaic Lake. Another tributary of the Santa Clara, Piru Creek, flows into both Pyramid Lake and Lake Piru. Sespe Creek also drains a considerable area. The.Los Angeles River and the San Gabriel River are considered to be one hydrologic basin. The headwaters of the San Gabriel River and tributaries of the Los Angeles River rise in the San Gabriel Mountains. Prior to extensive urbanization during this century, these two rivers descended to a low-lying area of extensive wetlands before flowing into the ocean. Open bodies of water within the basin are nearly all dammed reservoirs. The Cogswell Reservoir, Morris Reservoir along with the San Gabriel Reservoir in San Gabriel Canyon control and retain much of the run-off from the San Gabriel River before it exits the canyon and the Santa Fe Dam and Whittier Narrows provide flood control further down the river. The ,Rio Hondo connects the San Gabriel River from the Whittier Narrows Dam. Reservoirs, such as Chatsworth, Los Angeles, Pacoima, Stone Canyon, Franklin, Hollywood, and Puddingstone, are important both for storage and for recreation, but are not extensive in area. Separate from the Los Angeles and San Gabriel drainage systems, Malibu Creek drains a significant portion of the Santa Monica Mountains. The ,Santa Ana River drainage can be divided into an upper basin and a lower basin. The drainage of upper reaches of the Santa Ana is retained by Big Bear Valley Dan. The Santa Ana and Mill Creek, have carved very steep canyons and exit the mountains into the Bunker Hill basin. Cajon Creek and Lytle Creek also charge this basin. Silverwood Lake is a terminus of the California Aquedud. This water is channeled through an eight-mile tunnel to provide a source of hydroelectric power to Devil's Canyon power plant, and then is piped to Lake Perris. Page 11-4 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Eleven • Water Quality Lis Ila I )L r w . 1 11 • ed J = ev � o ■ � fJ � I y SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 11-5 0 Chapter Eleven • Water Quality The middle reaches of the Santa Ana River are perennial only because of waste treatment plant effluent. All the drainage of the Eastern San Gabriel Mountains - San Antonio Creek, Day's Creek, Etiwanda Creek, Deer Creek and Cucamonga Creek - are modified as storm drains and channeled to the El Prado Dam. Lake Matthews and Lake Perris provide storage for Colorado River water and State Water Project water, respectively. Lake Elsinore and Railroad Canyon Reservoir are other surface bodies of water within this basin. Lower Basin drainage is dominated by the flood control dam at El Prado. The Santa Ana Canyon, which separates the Chino Hills from the Santa Ana Mountains is the major drainage of heavily urbanized Orange County. The lower Santa Ana has been channelized and modified so that in most years flows do not reach the sea, but are used to recharge groundwater. Small portions of wetlands still remain in Orange County, Bolsa Chica, and the Upper Newport Bay area. The Mojave River rises in the San Bernardino Mountains and flows north and then eastward to the Mojave Sink. The Mojave River is very important to the growing High Desert communities as it is the only reliable source of ground water. Lake Arrowhead is a reservoir on one of the Mojave River tributaries. Whitewater River drains the eastern flanks of the San Gorgonio and collects drainage from the San Jacinto mountains. The Canyons of the Anza-Borrego State Park contain seeps and springs. The Whitewater River becomes the main drainage of the Coachella Valley to the Salton Sea, a large saline body of water. The Salton Sea was created by severe flooding that poured Colorado River waters into the below sea-level depression for almost two years (1905-07). The Salton Sea also receives drainage from the New River, which crosses the border from Mexico. Finally, on the eastern border of the SCAG region runs the Colorado River., which supplies a significant amount of agricultural and drinking water to the region. 2. GROUNDWATER The SCAG region contains many large groundwater basins. Prior to the development of the Los Angeles Aqueduct, groundwater served as the primary source of potable water. Even with the development of imported water supplies, groundwater continues to provide a significant portion of the region's water. Major groundwater basins in the region include the Central, Raymond, San Fernando, Central, West Coast and San Gabriel in Los Angeles County; the Upper Santa Ana Valley Basin system including Bunker Hill, and Chino Basins in San Bernardino and Riverside counties; the Coastal Plain Basin in Orange County; the Coachella Valley Basin in Riverside County; and the Oxnard Plain Basin in Ventura County. 3. OCEANS AND ESTUARIES Perhaps Southern California's most important natural attribute is the Pacific Ocean. The coastline of the SCAG region contains many unique bays, harbors, and estuaries. Starting from the north, these include the estuary at the mouth of the Santa Clara River where wastewater flows maintain a wetland/estuary environment.- Further south, lies the Santa Monica Bay, the largest indentation on the Southern California coastline. The Bay extends north from Point Dume above Malibu to the Palos Verdes Peninsula in the South. Within the Santa Monica Bay is Marina Del Rey, a large man-made recreational marina. The marina lies adjacent to Ballona Creek, at channelized waterway that receives a significant amount of the urban runoff Page 11-6 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Eleven 0 Water Quality draining directly into the Santa Monica Bay. Further south in the Bay is King Harbor in Redondo Beach, another recreational marina. On the southern side of the Palos Verdes Peninsula lies the Los Angeles and Long Beach harbors, two of the busiest commercial harbors in the world. The Los Angeles River, which carries the majority of Los Angeles County's urban runoff, as well as wastewater flows from inland treatment plants, flows into the ocean at this point. Further south is Newport Bay, which is an enclosed estuary with extensive development in and around the Bay. 4. WETLANDS Wetlands are unique areas in which the water table is essentially at the same level as the land. Wetlands include marshes, swamps, bogs, and playa lakes. In recent years, the environmental importance of wetlands have become better known. Wetlands provide habitat for a large number of plants and species and also serve as natural filters, cleansing water of many pollutants. In addition, wetlands function as natural flood control systems, absorbing much of the overflow water from rivers and streams. The SCAG region, particularly the coastal plains, were once home to vast acreage of wetlands. Today, estimates indicate that in some areas, more than 90 percent of the wetlands have been lost. However, wetland areas still exist around Ballona Creek in Los Angeles, in coastal areas of undeveloped portions of Orange County and in other areas in the region. 5. IMPORTED WATER Imported water is used throughout the region for drinking, agricultural, and industrial purposes. It also provides water for groundwater recharge and for recreational uses. Imported water in Southern California comes from three sources: the State Water Project, which carries water from the Sacramento Bay Delta area, the Colorado River Aqueduct, and the Los Angeles Aqueduct, which imports water from the Owens Valley and Mono Basin. In addition, new federal legislation will allow the region greater access to water from another source, the Central Valley Project. A detailed discussion of these imported sources is provided in the Water Resources chapter. E. WATER QUALITY IN THE SCAG REGION How is the quality of the water in the SCAG region? The most direct source for answering this question is the State Water Quality Assessment (SWQA) Report. The SWQA Report is a compilation of Regional Quality Assessment Reports that are adopted first by each regional water quality control board. The report is prepared every 2 years and is used to satisfy various federal reporting requirements under the Clean Water Act. The report is generated from a Water Quality Assessment Database which is maintained at the Regional Board and is updated as new information is available. This report provides a general assessment of the quality of waterbodies in the State. The SWQA classifies each waterbody into one of three categories: • Good-Quality Water, SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 11-7 Chapter Eleven • Water Quality 0 Intermediate-Quality Water, and • Impaired-Quality Water. A fourth classification of Unknown-Quality Water is used when observations are not available. Each waterbody is also identified by its type, including estuaries, groundwater, lakes and reservoirs, oceans and open bays, rivers and streams, saline lakes, and wetlands. All these waterbody types exist in the SCAG region and a significant number of them have been identified as having Impaired-Water-Quality. The summary tables for the SWQA for waterbodies in the SCAG region are included as an appendix to the Background Document. Major waterbodies identified as impaired include the following: ` 1 . RIVERS AND STREAMS Major rivers in the region include the Santa Clara River, Los Angeles River, San Gabriel River, Santa Ana River, Mojave River, Whitewater River, New River, and the Colorado River. Some of these rivers are intermittent (i.e., they are dry for parts of the year) and many parts of them have been channelized for flood prevention purposes, particularly around urban areas. The Colorado River, which borders the Southeastern portion of the region, is a major source of drinking and irrigation supply water for Southern California. Much of the water that flows through some of these rivers (particularly those in the urbanized areas) is 7 effluent from wastewater treatment plants. Over the course of a river or stream, various inputs from either ipoint (e.g., wastewater or industrial facilities) or from non-point (agricultural or stormwater runoff) can change the quality of the water in the river. Thus, most of the rivers contain reaches with water quality characteristics ranging from good through intermediate to impaired. Of particular concern in the region is the New River, which suffers from significant contamination from poorly treated wastewater and industrial discharges from Mexico. 2. LAKES The region's largest inland. waterbody, the Salton Sea, has significant water quality problems. The Sea is essentially a man-made waterbody, supported by inflows from agricultural return flows. The Sea lacks an outlet and the water level its maintained through evaporation. This evaporation leaves behind salts and, thus, the salinity in the sea is constantly increasing, which impacts both fish and riparian habitat. In addition, toxic contamination is a concern in the Sea, due in large part to discharges from Mexican facilities into the New River. In addition, recently implemented conservation practices may reduce the amount of fresh water that flows, to, and sustains the Salton Sea. 3. OPEN OCEANS AND BAYS Santa Monica Bay, which extends from Malibu to the Palos Verdes Peninsula, has impaired water quality as the resul* '-f several sources. Past wastewater disposal practices included the dumping of large amounts of PCBs, D :'s, and heavy metals into the Bay, which have led to persistent contamination problems in sediments, biota, and seafood. The Bay continues to receive the majority of the region's effluent from wastewater treatment plants. In addition, stormwater pollution, which drains directly into the Bay, may be the major current source of pollution. Page 11-8 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan . C Chapter Eleven • Water Quality 4. GROUNDWATER Several of the major groundwater basins, relied upon by millions of residents and businesses for potable water, suffer from contamination from past industrial and agricultural practices and from problems due to overdraft. Contamination from common industrial organic solvents, including trichloreythlene (TCE), perchloroethylene (PCE), and from nitrates has been found in many of the major groundwater basins underlying Los Angeles County. Widespread contamination has been discovered in both the San Fernando Valley and San Gabriel Valley basins. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has declared both basins "Superfund" sites under the Comprehensive Environmental Response and Liability Act (CERCLA). Remediation work directed by EPA to extract and treat the contaminated water has begun in the San Fernando Valley. Remediation work has yet to begin in the San Gabriel Valley, although the San Gabriel Basin Water Quality Authority has developed a plan to provide a comprehensive, locally based, solution to the contamination problem. Other impaired groundwater basins include the Ventura City-Oxnard Plain Basin, which suffers from saltwater intrusion due to continued pumping; the Chino and Middle Santa Ana basins, which have been affected by agricultural and dairy practices; and the Mojave Basin, which has wide variations in the water table from excessive pumping and contamination from past waste disposal practices. 5. BAYS AND HARBORS The state's water quality assessment identifies several bays and harbors in the region with impaired water quality. These include Alamitos Bay, King Harbor, Long Beach Harbor, Los Angeles Harbor, Marina Del Rey, and Port Hueneme. A common problem with these bays and harbors includes heavy metal contamination of sediments. Impacts to biota is often significant in these bays and harbors, and has led to health advisories due to elevated levels of contamination in shellfish tissues. 6. ESTUARIES Estuaries include the area's tidal prisms and tidal wetlands. Those identified as impaired include Ballona Wetlands, Colorado Lagoon, Dominguez Channel Tidal Prism, Los Angeles River Tidal Prism, Malibu Lagoon, Mugu Lagoon, San Gabriel River Tidal Prism, Santa Clara River Estuary, and the Ventura River Estuary. These estuaries suffer from similar problems as the bays and harbors-elevated heavy metal levels—and also have potential problems with eutrophication. In addition, significant alteration of wetlands from development has created habitat and species problems in areas such as the Ballona Wetlands. F. CURRENT FRAMEWORK FOR WATER QUALITY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT Who is responsible for planning and managing water quality in Southern California? The answer to this question is not as simple as it might appear. Numerous federal, state, and local governmental entities in one way or another are vested with responsibilities that affect water quality. In addition, private businesses and organizations also have significant legal requirements to ensure that their activities do not adversely affect water quality. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 11-9 Chapter Eleven • Water Quality One of the purposes of this water quality chapter is to identify the agencies with planning and management responsibilities for water quality in the region. The Background Document to this chapter provides a more detailed identification of the various responsible agencies as well as descriptions of their functions and responsibilities. The primary regional planning documents for water quality in the SCAG region are the basin plans prepared by the State Regional Water Quality Control Boards (RWQCBs). Four such plans, which also include specific regulatory controls, cover most of the water resources in the SCAG region. The purpose and structure of these basin plans is described below. While these plans are important parts of the water planning and management process, they do not cover many of the planned activities in the region for improving water quality. Thus, this chapter identifies the additional major organizations, primarily public sector, that have water quality planning and management responsibilities within the SCAG region. The list of organizations contained in this document is not intended to be exhaustive. However, it provides an overview of the intricate and sometimes diffuse nature of water quality planning and management in the SCAG region. 1 . REGIONAL WATER QUALITY CONTROL BOARD BASIN PLANS The primary planning documents for improving water quality in the SCAG region are prepared by the State Regional Water Quality Control Boards. There are nine RWQCBs throughout the State of California. Six of these! boards overlap with the SCAG boundaries (see Figure 11-2). Of these six, almost all of the SCAG region is covered by four boards: the Los Angeles Region (No. 4), the Santa Ana Region (No. 8), the Lahontan Region (No. 6), and the Colorado River Basin Region (No. 7). In addition to the regional boards, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) is responsible for establishing statewide policy on water quality issues. Both the SWRCB and the regional boards are part of the California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal-EPA). The regional boards have primary responsibility for implementing the state Porter-Cologne Water Quality Act, the major water quality legislation in California, and the CWA. Responsibilities under both of these acts include developing "basin;plans" for the regions, which provide objectives for improving or maintaining water quality, and issuing water quality permits to dischargers. The ]Porter-Cologne Act directs each regional board to "... formulate and adopt water quality control plans for all areas within the region."' There are three fundamental components in these plans: 1. ;Establishment of Beneficial Uses. In the basin plan, each regional board must identify the "beneficial uses" of each water body. Beneficial uses are the various ways in which a water body may be used and include such activities as municipal and domestic water supply, agricultural supply, groundwater recharge, industrial supply, hydropower generation, wildlife and aquatic habitat, and recreational uses. 2. Establishment of Water Oualily Objectives. Water quality objectives are the limits or levels of water constituents or characteristics established to protect beneficial uses. These objectives can either be 2Water Code 91 13000-13999.16. Page 11-10 0 December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Eleven • Water Quality ark •nail 1 O I I � I I I I 1 MMo i � h+y I i ccL_�--------------------- --- � -'t4 o i � cc 4,21 \y U SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 11-11 • Chapter Eleven • Water Quality expressed in narrative or numerical form. In addition, the objectives can apply to all water bodies or types of water bodies in the region or to a specific water body. When combined with beneficial uses, water quality objectives establish the specific standards that must be met for a water body. 3. Implementation Plan. The implementation plan describes the programs, projects, and other actions necessary to achieve the objectives established in the basin plan. The primary mechanism for implementing the point source portions of the basin plan is through issuing and enforcing waste discharge and National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permits to entities discharging waste water to either the land or to a water body. In addition, the boards implement non-point source loan programs, issue NPDES permits for stormwater, and oversee groundwater remediation projects. Implementation measures for nonpoint source discharges are carried out in accordance with the state's "Nonpoint Source Management Plan" as adopted by the State Water Resources Control Board in 1988. Basin plans are in effect for all four of the regional boards that cover most of the SCAG region. The Porter- Cologne Act requires regional boards to review and, if necessary, update these plans every three years (known as the "triennial review"). Several of the plans in the SCAG region are in the process of being updated. The current status of the regional basin plans in covering the SCAG region are as follows: 1. ]Los Angeles Region. The Los Angeles Region develops basin plans for two areas: the Santa Clara ][fiver Basin and the Los Angeles River Basin. The plans for both of these basins were developed and adopted by the regional board in 1975. The L.A. Regional Board made some revisions to the plan in :1978, 1990, and 1991. A triennial review of the plan is currently underway that will result in more comprehensive changes to the 1975 plan. The updated plan is expected to be adopted in early 1994. 2. Santa Ana Region. The Santa Ana Region first adopted its plan in 1975 and then conducted a complete update of the plan in 1.983. The Santa Ana Regional Board is in the process of updating the plan again and is expected to adopt a revised regional plan between late 1993 and early 1994. 3. Colorado River Regio L The Colorado River Regional Board adopted its most recent basin plan in 1991 and is working on an update to the plan to be released by the end of 1993. 4. Lahontan Region. The Lahontan Region adopted its basin plan in 1975 and has amended the plan several times since then. The Lahontan Board is currently undertaking a revision to the basin plan. 2. OTHER PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES Numerous other governmental agencies have planning and management responsibilities in the SCAG region. They include federal, state, regional, and local agencies that implement programs relating either directly or indirectly to maintaining water quality. These agencies and their responsibilities are identified in Figure 11-3. The specific responsibilities and activities are described in more detail in the background document for this chapter. Page 11-12 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Eleven • Water Quality Figure 11-3 Partial List of Agencies with Water 'Quality Planning and Management Responsibilities in the SCAG 'Region A. Federal Agencies 1 Envtrtinmental Protection Agency 2. :Army Corp of Engineers 3. Department of the Interior a bureau f�Wamation .__. __ ... ..........:...... .tt 1 >si and.MIdlife Service .. .. . . . . ........................ ................................... ... .Nat ort .Service d Suteau nd;lVianagement _..: _:................ ............................................................................ .. _.. I ... v cal Survey f. U S. F rest`Service 4. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 5. U.S. Coast Guard 6.. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service B State:;Agencies ;...............;:.; .........:...::.... . . .:. . 1 Califoraia Envuoamentalotectitin Agene�r 'a. State Water Resources Control Board b, RegiOnai„1>yater duality Control Boards c. Department of Toxic Substances Control d Department of Pesticide Regulation e. Integrated Waste Management Board SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 11-13 Chapter Eleven • Water Quality Figure 11-3 (continued) [ Partial List of Agencies with Water Quality Planning and Management Responsibilities in the .SCAG Region {continued}' B State enGes Cont'd ( .. ... . >' ahforaia Resources Agency : :: a... 'Department of Water Resources b, Department of Fish and Game C. California Coastal Commission d. State Coastal Conservancy e. Colorado<River Board:of California 3. Department of Health 6>enlices, Office of Drinking Water C. Regional and Local Agencies 1, City`and 1--'ounty General lltIrposeGflvernments Comprehensive Regional Pl arming Olga izat?.or. 3. Single Purpose Agencies :a. Wastewater "Treeatme.nt Agencie Water,Supply Agencies O Metropolitan Water Dtsthct Wholesale mater Suppl�rs Outside or-W Setvtce Area f,3j' Retail water Agcies Control Districts d Irrigation Districts $. :Resource Conservation Dls�trtcts Water Replenishment Districts Water Masters �} San. abriel Basin Water:Quality Authoritw .7 Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority. (3) Santa 1Vl0nc�Bay Restoretton Protect (�#} SouthernaiiforQia Coastaf Water Research Project Pager 11-14 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Eleven • Water Quality G. REGIONAL ISSUES FOR IMPROVED WATER QUALITY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT Numerous important issues face the region as it strives to maintain and improve its water quality. This chapter of the RCP identifies and discusses several of these issues. They include: 1 . Implications of Continued Growth in the South Coast Region The SCAG region has experienced population and urban growth throughout the past quarter-century unparalleled anywhere in the United States. Projections indicate that growth is likely to continue throughout the next 15 to 20 years. This growth presents several water quality problems. It creates an increased demand for wastewater treatment services as additional development and additional residents generate more wastewater. Continued growth, particularly as it includes increased urbanization, will also affect the amount and quality of storm-water runoff, a major source of water pollution in the region. In addition, the growing population will require more drinking water, and potentially exacerbate the water quality problems associated with increasing water supplies. Since the issuance of the 208 plan in 1979, the region has lacked a comprehensive framework for planning for future wastewater treatment plant development and expansion. Current "conformity" procedures exist, under the mandates of the federal Clean Air Act, to ensure that individual development or expansion projects are not in conflict with regional air quality objectives. The process of ensuring conformity with the region's air quality and water quality objectives will be facilitated by updating the information in the 208 plan regarding population projections for the region's wastewater facility service areas. Such an update, conducted in cooperation with local wastewater treatment agencies, is to be included as part of the RCP process. 2. FUTURE NON-POINT SOURCE MANAGEMENT Nonpoint source pollution, and in particular stormwater runoff, is increasingly becoming the most significant water pollution source in the region, particularly for coastal waters. Agriculture is also a large generator of nonpoint source pollution. The federal, state, and local programs and resources dedicated toward water quality, however, have traditionally had a primary focus on point sources (i.e., discharges from wastewater treatment facilities and industries). While this attention to point-source pollution has resulted in considerable positive improvements in water quality, emphasis on nonpoint sources will be crucial to making additional and needed progress. Such an emphasis on nonpoint sources, however, will require significant resources. A comprehensive analysis of the potential costs associated with nonpoint source pollution control is needed, along with an identification of potential sources for this funding. Such an analysis will facilitate future discussions in the region regarding policy options for addressing nonpoint source pollution. In addition, because of the relative importance of nonpoint source pollution, the region will need to evaluate the resources it currently expends on water pollution control to consider, (1) whether the total amount is disproportionately spent on point sources, and (2) whether changes in where the money is spent need to be considered to maximize public benefits. In addition, planning for the control and quality improvement of nonpoint source pollution needs to be more fully integrated into the local planning process. Additional attention in local general plan development focusing on the nonpoint source pollution issue is critical in effective control of this significant source of pollution. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 11-15 Chapter Eleven • Water Quality 3. WATERSHEDS AS A PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK A growing consensus exists among the water pollution community that more effective planning and management of water quality could be achieved through a process of "comprehensive watershed management." A watershed is the system of creeks, streams, and rivers that flow into a common water body and includes the associated riparian habitat. Watersheds are distinct ecosystems, such that changes to one part of the system can have effects on other parts. For example, changes in the riparian vegetation to a stream that eventually flows into a lake can increase the pollutant loading to that stream and impair the water quality of the lake. The traditional planning and management of water quality has focused primarily on individual water bodies. In addition, coordination among the water pollution agencies, various land use agencies, water supply agencies, and other public entities that affect a watershed has been sporadic. In watershed management, both public and private agencies that rely upon or manage components of a water body, work in a cooperative fashion to determine the best strategy for improving water quality in the watershed. These "stakeholders" jointly determine the problems in the watershed, search for consensus on the actions to be taken, and then implement those actions in an integrated fashion. Such cooperative effort will lead to more cost-effective solutions to ensuring that the "beneficial uses" of the region's waterbodies are maintained. The Santa Monica Bay Restoration Project (SMBRP) represents an example of watershed management on a broad scale. The SMBRP is part of the federal National Estuary Program and is required to develop a comprehensive plan for improving water quality in the bay. This plan is being developed through the coordinated efforts of federal, state, and local government agencies, industry representatives, and community and environmental groups. Similar types of coordinated actions are developing to address the water quality problems of the Salton Sea, and the Santa Ana River watershed. These watershed management projects serve as examples to be used for other watersheds in the region. 4. (FINANCING GROUNDWATER CLEANUPS The region faces a significant environmental and economic problem from contaminated groundwater. The contamination threatens important sources of drinking water for the growing region. In addition, the liability associated with cleaning up contaminated groundwater poses financial threats to local industries and to local governments. A coordinated, local-based approach to addressing the groundwater issue in areas such as the San Gabriel Valley is crucial to the future of the region. Such an approach would leverage the available federal and state resources to address the problems, while apportioning the local financial burden in an equitable fashion. 5. REDUCING REGULATORY OVERLAP The watershed management approaches, as described above, will require agencies at all level of governments to work together in a cooperative fashion. This chapter identifies some of the many agencies that affect water quality in the region. As the region faces the difficult problems posed by nonpoint source pollution, the ability for these agencies to work together effectively, while avoiding unnecessary duplication, will be crucial. Page 11-16 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Eleven • Water Quality H. RECOMMENDATIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS To improve the planning and management of water quality in the SCAG region, this chapter offers several recommendations. These recommendations include actions or activities that can be undertaken by regional entities, such as SCAG, as well as policies and programs that can be explored by other agencies, particularly at the state and federal level. These recommendations include the following: 1. Water quality regulatory implementation should be streamlined and overlaps with other regulatory programs should be identified and eliminated to reduce economic impacts on local businesses. Discussion: This Water Quality chapter is a first step at a comprehensive identification of the various water-related agencies in the SCAG region. The continuation of this effort along with other state and regional streamlining projects is critical to improving water quality in the region in the most cost- efficient manner. Such efforts include streamlining permitting process, including the integration of water permitting into ongoing "one-stop" permitting efforts and reducing overlaps in the overlapping responsibilities of water quality and other agencies in such areas as solid waste facility permitting and inspections. 2. "Watershed management" programs and strategies should be encouraged, recognizing the primary role of local governments in such efforts. Discussion: Watershed management can be encouraged in several ways. Changes to current federal and state law for water quality should be amended to incorporate watershed management as an integral part of state and federal water quality programs. These watershed management efforts should facilitate local decision-making in establishing the water quality objectives for a water body and the strategies for achieving those objectives, including the appropriate public expenditures on point source control and nonpoint source control, strategies for wetlands enhancement, and funding approaches. In addition, ' federal and state funding of water quality projects should be targeted at recommendations stemming from water quality planning efforts and should be flexible to finance a variety of water quality projects. 3. SCAG shall play a coordinating role in watershed management efforts at the subregional level by 1) providing consistent regional data; 2) serving as a liaison between local watershed efforts at state and federal agencies; and 3) ensuring that watershed planning is consistent with other planning objectives (e.g., transportation, air quality, water supply). Discussion: Watershed management initiatives will be most effective when local governments are integrated into the decision-making process. The regional comprehensive planning process offers the opportunity for incorporating an existing local based decision making system into watershed management. Existing subregions in SCAG are primarily established along jurisdictional boundaries. As appropriate watershed management boundaries are identified within the region, the appropriate linkage with subregional entities should be made so that watershed management can be part of the subregional planning process. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 0 Page 11-17 Chapter Eleven • Water Quality 4. Opportunities for pollutant trading and other market-incentive water quality programs as an alternative to strict command-and-control regulation should be encouraged. Discussion: Appropriate waterbodies in the region for pollutant trading programs should first be identified. A pollutant trading system for water quality could operate similar to the RECLAIM program being considered for air quality. Under such a system, an overall pollutant loading limit for all dischargers into a water body would be established. Each facility discharging into the waterbody would be allocated, based on historical discharges, a specific number of credits. These credits allow the facility to discharge a specified amount of pollutants. The facility can either discharge less than the credits allow and sell the credits or can buy credits from another facility and discharge more than their original allocation. A trading system encourages facilities in which it is less expensive to reduce their pollution to do so while at the same time reducing the costs to facilities that face higher costs. The Los Angeles and Santa Ana Rivers may be potential candidates. Additional analysis and evaluation should be conducted to determine whether a pilot project for pollutant trading can be initiated on one of these, or another appropriate, waterbody. 5. SCAG shall support regional efforts to identify and cooperatively plan for wetlands to facilitate both the sustaining of the amount and quality of wetlands in the region as well expedite the process for obtaining wetlands permits. Discussion. The urban growth in the region has resulted in the loss of vast amounts of wetlands. Wetlands play an important role in maintaining water quality by providing natural filtration systems. In addition, wetlands are important habitats for many types of species. However, current efforts at wetlands protection through the federal permitting process is a piece-meal approach, which can result in .tong, sometimes unnecessary, delays in project approval. More regional, cooperative planning for ;maintaining and/or improving the region's wetlands is needed. Such an approach would encourage a regional identification of all wetlands resources and their relative value and provide a framework for making future decisions in the region regarding wetlands. 6. Cleaning up contamination in the region's major groundwater aquifers is critical to the long-term economic and environmental health of the region. The financing of such clean-ups should leverage state and federal resources and minimize significant impacts on the local economy. Discussion: The contamination of major aquifers in the SCAG region threatens our long-term water supply. Because of the unique nature of this contamination (i.e., hundreds of contributing sources, numerous water purveyors, and the large population relying on the water source), different approaches than the application of stringent federal joint-and-several liability are necessary. Current state and federal proposals for the San Gabriel Basin are important steps in addressing this problem while maintaining the economic viability of the region. 7. Water reclamation shall be encouraged throughout the region where feasible and appropriate to reduce reliance on imported water and to reduce wastewater discharges. Current administrative impediments to increased use of wastewater should be addressed. Discussion. Water reclamation is a priority in both the Water Quality and Water Resources chapters of the RCP. The Water Resources chapter projects that a growing percentage of total water supply will Pager 11-1 S • Deceml5er, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan 0 Chapter Eleven • Water Quality come from reclaimed water. To achieve this or higher percentages, current impediments to water reclamation must be overcome in the region. These impediments include financial obstacles, insufficient infrastructure, health concerns, and public perception. A regional cooperative effort among water supply agencies, local governments, public works officials, state and federal agencies, and others should be initiated to identify and address these impediments. 8. Wastewater treatment agency facility planning and facility development should be consistent with population projections contained in the RCP. Discussion. Ensuring that wastewater capacity planning and development is consistent with SCAG's population projections serves two important goals. First, it ensures that adequate treatment capacity exists to manage the region's waste thereby serving an important clean water objective. One of the primary purposes of the Clean Water Act Section 208 planning process is to ensure that adequate and environmentally beneficial treatment capacity will be available to meet the demands of a growing Southern California population. Without such capacity, improperly treated wastewater will contribute to poor water quality in the region. Second, consistency between wastewater capacity expansion and population projections helps ensure that increases in capacity do not unnecessarily out pace projections of future population and development. Capacity expansions may serve as an inducement to development and growth in a manner that is contrary to the region's air quality goals. EPA recognized this is the federal Clean Air Act. Section 316 of the Act gives EPA the authority to withhold grants for sewage treatment works construction if such construction does not conform with the region's air quality plan. In addition, Section 176 of the Act prohibits any federal agency from providing financial assistance, licensing, permitting or approving any activity that does not conform with a region's air plan. This section of the act also prohibits a metropolitan planning agency, such as SCAG, from granting approval of a project, program, or plan that does not conform to the air plan. Pursuant to modifications made to this section in the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, EPA is currently in the process of promulgating regulations on the procedures for determining conformity. In conjunction with the 1991 air quality plan for the South Coast Air Basin, SCAG developed conformity procedures for wastewater treatment facilities. These procedures require wastewater facility plans and projects to meet two criteria before a finding of conformity can be made. First, they must be sized and service-phased according to the population projections for the service area adopted or approved by SCAG. Second, the wastewater treatment agency must have a monitoring and reporting system for projects within its service area. This system must include an on-going process and procedures for reviewing and commenting on all general development projects, for monitoring development approvals, for sharing information with other regional and local agencies, and for reporting information to SCAG. The finding of conformity, as described in the conformity procedures, is to be made in the time the Regional Water Quality Control Board either issues or renews the NPDES permit for the facility. Since the development of SCAG's conformity procedures, two changes have occurred. First, questions have been raised regarding whether the issuance of an NPDES permit by the Regional Water Quality Control Board constitutes a federal action and, therefore, whether a finding of conformity is required at the time such a permit is issued. Second, as indicated above, EPA is developing regulations for conformity to implement Section 176 of the Clean Air Act. Proposed regulations were issued on March SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 11-19 Chapter Eleven • Water Quality 15, 1993 and final regulations are anticipated in early 1994. The proposed regulations exempted NPDES permits from the conformity review, although it is unclear whether this exemption will remain in the final regulations. Following the promulgation of these final regulations, SCAG will be required to revise its existing conformity guidelines. It should be noted that specific conformity guidelines adopted as part of a State Implementation Plan, such as those developed by SCAG, can be more restrictive than the federal rules. In light of the uncertainties surrounding the federal conformity requirements, as well as the need to have a region-wide process for ensuring appropriate wastewater capacity growth, SCAG is proposing the following actions as a supplement to the existing conformity procedures. Consistent with the philosophy underlying the RCP, this process emphasizes cooperative efforts between local agencies (i.e., wastewater treatment facilities) and SCAG. Under this process, SCAG will allocate its growth projections by each wastewater treatment service area in the region and work cooperatively with wastewater treatment agencies to ensure that facility plans are consistent with such growth projections. Such an effort is designed to minimize the need for conformity review for specific projects. Actions The following actions are proposed: 1. Upon issuance of the final RCP, SCAG will allocate the growth projections contained in the growth management component of the RCP by the service area of each wastewater treatment agency in the SCAG region. 2. SCAG, in conjunction with wastewater treatment agencies in the region, will review existing facility plans to ensure that the population, housing, and employment projections underlying these plans are consistent with the SCAG-adopted projections. 3. In instances in which wastewater treatment facility plans are not consistent with SCAG-adopted growth projections, SCAG will work with such agencies to either: 1) modify facility plans to conform with the growth projections, or 2) revaluate the growth projections for the wastewater treatment agency service area, or 3) both. 4. Facility plans found to be consistent with the SCAG-adopted population projections will be incorporated into the water quality component of the regional comprehensive plan. 5. Conformity determinations for specific facilities will be conducted consistent with the 1991 conformity guidelines. However, SCAG will reevaluate these guidelines in light of the final regulations to be adopted by EPA regarding conformity, and the changes to the State Implementation Plan that must follow. The 1991 guidelines will, in cooperation with wastewater treatment agencies, be revised accordingly. 6. Eligible projects under state and federal water quality infrastructure funding programs should include a range of projects, including non-point source and water reclamation projects. Page 11-20 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Eleven • Water Quality Discussion: Current state and federal funding (as well as future funding under a reauthorized Clean Water Act) must recognize the unique water quality problems of different regions and provide flexibility in financing different types of water quality projects. I. INTEGRATION OF WATER QUALITY AND OTHER REGIONAL ISSUES Water quality is related to several of the other issues in the RCP. The most direct relationship is with water supply. Poor water quality in the region—in particular, poor groundwater quality — is and will continue to have significant implications for the supply of water for drinking and commercial purposes in the region. In addition, water quality in other regions of the state is interconnected with the supply of imported water into this region. Other interrelationships between water quality and other chapters of the plan include: • Economic Development and Water Quality. Maintaining water quality is important to the economic viability of the region. However, there are increasing regulatory and liability costs associated with maintaining water quality and these costs can have adverse effects on operating expenses of regional businesses. Businesses are also subject to regulatory costs to meet NPDES permit requirements or pretreatment standards. In some areas, these costs may be increasing due to the poor quality of the imported water supply. This chapter emphasizes the need to streamline water quality regulation and to explore market-based regulatory alternatives when possible. Liability costs are primarily associated with the clean-up of contaminated groundwater in the San Gabriel Valley, San Fernando Valley, and other areas. This chapter recognizes the need to address these groundwater concerns while not driving companies out of business. • Growth Management and Water Quality. The projected population growth in this plan will have significant implications for maintaining water quality, by increasing the demand for wastewater treatment and by increasing the urbanized surface area and, therefore, the amount of urban runoff. • Air Quality and Water Quality. The impact of poor air quality on water quality is an important, but poorly understood, issue. Some research indicates that air contaminants can substantially contribute to poor water quality in the region through a process known as "aerial fallout." Thus, efforts at improving air quality as described in the air quality chapter, may also have benefits for water quality. • Solid and Hazardous Waste and Water Quality. Primary objectives for solid and hazardous waste management are to reduce and recycle wastes and to provide environmentally safe disposal options. These objectives contribute directly to improved water quality by protecting groundwater and surface water from contamination. An additional important relationship is the need for adequate flood control in the region and the impact of flood control projects on nonpoint source runoff. Traditionally, flood control projects have increased the amount of urban runoff by directly channeling stormwater through a system of storm drains, concrete channels, and channelized rivers to the ocean. Thus, the need to maintain adequate flood control is often in ; conflict with efforts to reduce urban runoff. More information is needed on the costs and safety implications of alternative flood control systems in the region. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 11-21 _ a r Chmp � sT T2 ENERGY • Introduction • Energy Use: Current • Energy Demand: Future • Energy Use Implications • Efficiency Options Assessment • Efficiency Opportunity Evaluation • Efficiency Opportunity Agenda: Implementation A. INTRODUCTION California has an abundance of natural resources, ranging from a pristine coastline to the Sierra Nevada E crest. With a wide-ranging climate of sun and wind, coupled with significant fossil fuel reserves, California boasts among the most diverse energy systems in the world--one which utilizes wind, geothermal, hydro- electric, solar, and nuclear energy, as well as conventional fossil fuels, to-pewer homes, businesses, and industry. This abundance of natural resources provides an opportunity for utilities to select the most economic and efficient means of providing energy service needs. California remains vulnerable, however, to supply disruptions of the petroleum-based liquid fuels that provide the energy used in the vast majority of the state's transportation systems. The counties and cities comprising the SCAG region are a reflection of the diversity characterizing California. While the region itself generates electricity from geothermal (Imperial County), wind (San Gorgonio Pass) and solar (San Bernardino County), the electricity generation facilities in the region remain primarily fossil- fuel fired. This, along with massive transportation requirements, creates significant concerns regarding the amount of air pollutants and carbon dioxide generated every day by the combustion of fossil fuels in the region. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-1 0 Chapter Twelve • E=nergy Moreover, the generation and use of energy is not without cost. California's "energy bill" totals billions of dollars annually. Largely unquantified costs of associated public health and environmental quality impacts to air and water increase these costs significantly. The absence of a diversity of fuel choices in the transportation sector presents additional security and economic risk. While energy supplies are adequate, the population growth, economic growth, and mobility requirements underlying the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) will add significantly to both energy use and associated environmental and public health impacts. In addition to higher direct costs, major infrastructure and pollution control investments will be required. 1 . PREPARATION The Energy Chapter has been prepared by the staff of the California Energy Commission (CEC) and a consulting team lead by Sedway Cooke Associates, at the request of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). The chapter has not been approved by the CEC and will not be formally adopted; rather, it is intended as a guide to potential efficiency opportunity choices which can be made by local and regional officials. It is one chapter of SCAG's RCP to be implemented as desired by individual member governments. This chapter is being released for public review and comment. A public workshop will take place in December 1993. The CEC Conservation Programs Committee will conduct this workshop. Z. PURPOSE AND SCOPE 711te Energy Chapter is intended to provide regional and local decision-makers with an understanding of the pervasive role that energy plays in the modern economy. Given recent changes in federal and state law, the Energy Chapter illustrates that higher degrees of integration may be needed in regional planning than have previously existed in separate, single-purpose arenas. The chapter also shows that local decision-makers can influence energy usage and its consequences in their jurisdictions. State, regional, and local decision-makers will be faced with policy choices regarding how to accommodate expected growth in a manner that maximizes efficient use of resources and minimizes life-cycle cost and environmental and health impacts. Many of these choices will be interrelated in obscure, poorly analyzed ways. While it is clear that energy use and air quality interrelationships merit careful attention, other important sector relationships have yet to be well understood. Land-use patterns determine mobility needs. Housing style, building patterns, and transportation infrastructure affect both mobility and energy service demands. Population growth itself will create significant requirements for water pumping and solid waste disposal. Emphasizing these integrated resource demand and impact questions is a major purpose of this chapter. In many instances it may be possible to achieve multiple goals in a supportive manner. For example, energy- efficient mobility options can be engineered through conscious urban form choices. In other instances, the goals of transformation, energy efficiency, and air quality may conflict. This chapter does not attempt to resolve conflicts between energy use and the achievement of other regional goals. Instead, its purpose is to illuminate key questions: Where do the policy linkages exist? Can interrelationships between land-use patterns, mobility, housing needs, energy, and environmental quality be Page 12-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan rIN Chapter Twelve • Energy established? Where symbiosis exists, what policies are available at what level of public and private investment? The chapter does not tell people what they must do with respect to energy use; nothing in this chapter creates new legal mandates for local governments or other regional governmental organizations. Rather, it identifies options to achieve energy goals, explains the interrelationships between energy and other policy choices, and provides methods to determine the energy impacts of policy decisions. It identifies a menu of approaches that can improve efficiency of natural resource use at regional and local levels. For any individual jurisdiction the choices may vary, but the menu can provide a guide to further review and choice at whatever level is appropriate. Developing an illustrative efficiency opportunity agenda is thus a final purpose of the chapter. r The scope of the Energy Chapter was narrowed, because of time and resource constraints, to focus on efficiency of energy use. This represents the type of activity over which local governments have the most control. Energy use was initially categorized into four major areas: • Buildings and Appliances • Land Use • Movement of Vehicles, People, and Information • Infrastructure (water, waste water, and solid waste) Land-use and movement were consolidated in the evaluation stage. Major categories of energy users not considered in the Energy Chapter include agriculture, and air- and water-based transportation systems. In subsequent planning cycles, the scope of the Energy Chapter could be broadened. The Energy Chapter of the RCP is supplemented by a Regional Energy Background Document. The background document is divided into four parts: Part I is an executive summary; Part H outlines current and future energy use and impacts; Part III identifies and evaluates efficiency opportunities; and Part IV presents implementation options. B. ENERGY USE: CURRENT 1 . ENERGY SERVICE CHOICES Although California residents purchase billions of units of energy each year, this quantity is not consumed directly as food, clothing, or shelter is consumed. Instead, energy is purchased because it can provide an essential or desired service—light, warmth, transport, or power. These basic "energy service" needs are what drive demand for energy. Examples of energy demand categorized by various service choices appear in Figures 12-1 and 12-2. These charts show that 13 percent of SCAG's residential energy use is for space conditioning; keeping warm or cool. In the commercial and industrial sectors, lighting, boilers (heat), and motors (power) require a substantial percentage of energy. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-3 e ® I Chapter Twelve • Energy FIGURE 12-1: SCAG 1990 RESIDENTIAL ENERGY USE Electricity Natural Gas saner ace eater u 7 F�a(n erahon rsm wt was ier afar eater 22 "` er uxs % n T 2. ENERGY DEMAND: SCAG ENERGY USE The CEC quantifies the demand for electricity and natural gas by utility planning areas. The combination of Southern California Edison Co., The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, and Burbank, Glendale, and Pasadena planning areas encompass the SCAG region (except for Imperial County). The transportation sector analysis is prepared for the Los Angeles Basin, which includes the six counties in the SCAG region. Although half of California's residents live in the SCAG region, energy use is less than half of the state's total energy consumption. This is partially due to the mild climate, utilities' implementation of energy savings programs, and the large amount of natural gas used for outside the SCAG region. Residential customers use 13 percent of the state's energy, commercial buildings use 10 percent, industrial processes use 28 percent, and the transportation sector uses 49 percent. Government is a large regional energy consumer. FIGURE 12-2: SCAG 1990 COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ENERGY USE Electricity Natural Gas Does otors 9 `: L•'ifivi i4li{{vr r%�n::�2.2:tix`� eat :J..:{;.:'»> stet eat •'v\\iii. �:?:{ti......... qup lRefrIgemdon Page 12-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Twelve • Energy a. Electricity Residential, commercial, and industrial sectors are the main electric users (see Figure 12-3). The transportation sector is anticipated to use an increasing amount of electricity as electric cars come on line during the next two decades to help alleviate air quality problems. FIGURE 12-3 CALIFORNIA 1990 ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION 360 - 300 ....................................... _...-...._........-•••-.................................. SCAG 250 ........................................ _.......................-................................. NON-SCAG 200 ---.-....... m 150 100 ....... 50 •--•--------- - 0 4ij RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRY COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE & WATER PUMPING Electricity is generated using a diverse set of resources. A considerable amount of electricity is generated outside the SCAG region and then transmitted into the region for use by final consumers. In 1990, electricity in the SCAG region was generated by the following resources: 29 percent natural gas; 15 percent coal; 4% oil; 14 percent nuclear; 4 percent hydro; 7 percent other renewable resources such as geothermal, wind, and solar; and 27 percent other imports from out of state. The SCAG region has many potential resource options available to meet electric power needs during the next 20 years. Increased concerns for air quality and other environmental issues will require changes in existing electricity generation facilities and may affect the character, timing, and quantity of future resource additions. As Figure 12-4 shows, renewable resources have been gaining popularity. Since many of these renewables are used by small power producers rather than large electric utilities, growth-depends greatly on favorable market conditions and the regulatory climate. h SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-5 r L Chapter Twelve • Energy FIGURE 12-4 SCAG ELECTRICITY RESOURCES 140 120 ............................_....._.........I.......,..., __...._ _. ......... ............. Hydra 100 ........ ........ ........ r c erod ........ a RanefCbk 20 F►�OGrt 0 19x7 1984 19M 19M 1987 19M 1999 1990 1991 b. Natural Gas Natural gas is used in all sectors including the utility sector (see Figure 12-5). In recent years, utilities have increased their gas use because gas prices have been relatively low, hydroelectric power was limited in drought years, and air quality issues were pressing. Currently, a minimum amount of natural gas is used in the transportation sector. This fuel will, however, have an increasing impact as incentives are provided to encourage use of cleaner fuels in transit buses and fleet vehicles. FIGURE 12-5 CALIFORNIA 1990 NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION 700 - 500 .................-----------------------------------.. ....._........_.............................._... Scog 500 ........... ........................ ............-....................................... Non—scrag 400 ........... ........................ ................................. m ~ ........... 300 �--...----- ---•.................... .. ... ........... 100 ------------ ........ 0 RESDENTIAL NOUSTRIAL OF• COMMERCIAL UTUTY Small power producers selling electricity to public utilities Page 12-6 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan f Q Chapter Twelve • Energy c. Petroleum The transportation sector uses by far the most petroleum (see Figure 12-6). On the other hand, electric utilities have used very little petroleum during the past decade. Utilities often find inexpensive imports more cost-effective than running their own fossil-fuel-powered plants. The industrial sector still uses a substantial amount of petroleum, although less than in previous years. Several types of industries have the capability to switch from natural gas to petroleum products as prices fluctuate. In future years, air quality standards in the SCAG region are expected to increasingly deter petroleum use by both the industrial and electric utility sectors. FIGURE 12-6 CALIFORNIA 1990 PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION 3000 - Scog 2500 ..................................................................._........ ................................ Ncn—scag 2000 ............__..... ........--------------*......................_...... ................................ M1500 ............................................................................. ....................... M 1000 ............................................................................. ------....---............--..... 500 ....................................................... ................................ 0 RESCENTIAL INDUSTRIAL UTLrrY COMMERCIAL TRANSPORTATION C. ENERGY DEMAND: FUTURE 4 1 . STATEWIDE CONTEXT California is the fastest growing state in the nation. During the past 15 yearns, the state's population increased 33 percent. And compared to 1990 levels, California can expect 11 million new residents and 4.6 million new households by 2010. Real per capita income may increase by 27 percent and California's economy could expand in real terms by up to 3 percent per year. As a result, energy use will increase. By 2010 California will use an additional 105,500 GWh' of electricity to meet the needs of the state's added population. Peak demand will grow by more than 40 percent while annual electricity use will increase by more than 43 percent. 'One gigawatt hour is one million kilowatt hours, or enough electricity for the annual needs of about 125 typical California homes. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-7 Chapter Twelve • Energy What drives California's growing demand for energy? California's future long-term population and economic growth are the underlying causes of the state's growing need for energy. The key link in forecasting future energy use is between job creation and population growth, which are the basic functions of economic activity. A growing economy creates new jobs; new jobs attract people and people use energy. From 1990 to 2010, the Energy Commission forecasts that California's economy will grow by 2.9 percent per year. Southern California's economy will grow slightly faster than that of northern California. During this same period, about 3.3 million new jobs will be created in southern California. 2. ENERGY USE IN THE SCAG REGION: 2010 a. Electricity By 2010, peak demand for electricity by consumers, businesses, and industries in the SCAG region is forecasted to grow by more than 11,000 MW. This represents a 44 percent increase over current peak demand. In the same period, the population in the SCAG region is expected to increase over 40 percent and total personal income will expand by more than 90 percent. As stated previously, the SCAG region's strong economic and population growth is expected to continue despite the effects of the 1990s recession. Between 1990 and 2010, population and personal incomes are expected to grow at annual rates of 1.8 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. The average annual growth rate in electricity use from 1990 to 2010 is anticipated to be 2 percent. Since summer demand for air conditioning drives peak in the SCAG region, peak demand will grow faster than base-load because economic and population development is occurring in the warmer portions of Califomia. Riverside and San Bernardino counties in particular are expected to almost double in population during the next 20 years. Table 12-1 shows forecasts for overall electric consumption. This region represents 47 percent of California's electricity use. The residential and industrial sectors grow more slowly than the commercial sector, so over time the commercial sector's share of electricity use becomes larger. Due to increased floor space and energy use per square foot, the commercial sector is the dominant sector with 58 percent growth from 1990 to 2000. The residential sector is a distant second with 26 percent of the growth. After 2000, the commercial sector will continue to grow faster than other sectors, but at a slower rate than in the immediate future. Electricity use per household remains fairly flat from 1990 through 2005, but the makeup of that energy use changes. End uses affected by buildings and appliance standards such as space heat, air conditioning, and refrigerators/freezers consume less energy. These effects on the overall household electricity use are offset by a trend toward larger homes, larger refrigerators, more homes located in warmer climates (as illustrated by the growth in Riverside County), increased saturations of such items as clothes dryers and water beds, and significant growth in the miscellaneous appliance stock, which includes home computers. These offsets become more apparent after 2005 when residential electric use increases at a slightly faster rate. In the commercial sector, most end-uses appear flat or declining over time. However, the office equipment end:-use grows due to growing dependence upon computers, facsimile machines, printers, and other peripheral equipment, especially in office buildings. Cooling is the single largest growth area for peak demand, especially in the commercial sector. More buildings are being cooled, more buildings are being built in ww-mer climates, and the growth in office and miscellaneous equipment is impacting the cooling requirements in buildings through waste heat from equipment usage. Page 12-8 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Twelve • Energy Table 12-1: Summary of ER-92 Electricity Demand Forecasts Energy Consumption (GWh) 1990 2000 2010 SCE 81,486 101,516 122,640 LADWP 22,997 27,250 31,005 BGP* 2,950 3,228 3,534 EV Adjust" 2 335 3921 TOTAL 107,435 132,329 161,100 Peak Demand WIN) 1990 2000 2010 f SCE 17,788 21,642 26,431 LADWP 5,311 6,435 7,241 BGP* 813 821 880 EV Adjust" 0 33 282 TOTAL 23,912 28,931 34,834 r Source: 1992 Electricity Report, Appendix C, pp. C-30-31.and California Energy Demand, Vol 1, November 1993 Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena Municipal Utilities ** EV Adjustment is CEC,s ER94 Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast minus CEC's ER 92 Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast b. Natural Gas Natural gas is the second largest energy source in California. The SCAG region represents 44 percent of California's gas use. Natural gas demand is expected to increase slowly during the next 20 years. Table 12- 2 shows gas use in the Southern California Gas Planning Region. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-9 L 0 Chapter Twelve • Energy Table 12-2:Summary of Southern California Gas Planning Area Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts Immcfdj Sector 1990 2005 2010 RE;sidential 735 750 770 Commercial 272 383 407 Industry 432 576 600 Subtotal 1,439 1,709 1,777 Transportation 0 107 210 TE:OR 501 861 860 Cogeneration 243 254 256 Utilities 468 811 952 Subtotal 711 1,065 1,208 Total Usage 2,651 3,742 4,055 Source: 1991 Fuels Report, Natural Gas Outlook, December 1991. Transportation Source: 1993 Fuels Report, Natural Gas Outlook, November, 1993. Natural gas is now the principal fuel for stationary users such as residential, business, industrial, and TEOR2 consumers in the SCAG region. Natural gas use is expected to increase at a slower rate than economic and demographic activity because of the efficiency of use by new customers and the efficiency of new equipment. Natural gas demand by stationary end users is expected to grow by less than 1 percent per year. Power plant electric generation has shifted toward the use of natural gas and away from petroleum. The environmental advantages of natural gas compared to petroleum make it the fuel of choice for both utilities and independent energy producers. Given that the natural gas supply is adequate and the price outlook is attractive, no significant change is expected in the preference for natural gas for electricity generation. Natural gas use for electricity generation is expected to grow more than 2 percent per year in the SCAG region. c. Petroleum Petroleum product fuel use is projected to continue to increase as shown in Table 12-3. 2Thermally enhanced oil recovery is the process of injecting steam into oil-holding geologic zones in order to increase the abiliity to extract oil by lowering its viscosity. Page 12-10 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Twelve • Energy Table 12-3: Summary of Total Petroleum Product Demand (thousand gallons per day) 1992 2000 2010 Gasoline Autos 10,686 9,882 9,854 Light/Medium Trucks 4,087 4,294 4,672 Heavy Trucks 333 193 36 Motorcycles 37 43 50 Total 15,143 14,412 14,612 Light Distillates Autos 129 22 4 Light/Medium Trucks 35 6 1 Heavy Trucks 2,074 2,315 2,632 Urban Bus 72 72 72 Aviation 4,482 4,784 5,241 Commercial 10 11 11 Industry 8 8 9 Powerplants 54 94 478 Total 6,864 7,312 8,447 Heavy Distillates Ships 3,018 3,300 3,300 Industry 0 0 0 Powerplants 0 0 0 Total 3,018 3,300 3,300 Total Petroleum Consumption 25,025 25,024 26,359 all types and uses Note: Commercial and industrial consumption from CEC spreadsheet model. Power plant projections from SCAQMD 1991 AQMP, Appendix IV-D. Shipping projections assume 10 percent growth from base year values(PIIRA DATA). Transportation is by far the largest component of petroleum product demand. The projections show gasoline use continuing to increase, but at a somewhat reduced annual rate. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) is a primary determinant of gasoline demand. Gasoline demand can be determined by dividing miles traveled by fuel economy (miles per gallon). The average fuel economy of gasoline vehicles dramatically increased in the 1980s, as the efficiency of new cars increased and these cars replaced cars in the existing fleet. Future growth in average fuel economy is projected to be less, in conjunction with little growth in fuel prices. The forecast assumes the average efficiency of new cars will increase only 13 percent and the efficiency of new light-duty trucks will increase 8 percent. The average fuel economy of California vehicles will also increase to the extent new vehicles replace vehicles of lower fuel economy. ISCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-11 Chapter Twelve • Energy D. ENERGY USE IMPLICATIONS Infrastructure requirements and environmental impacts resulting from energy use are related directly to the level of energy consumption for the three principal energy forms—electricity, natural gas, and petroleum products. Potential impacts are examined for these major energy sources in the following sections. 1 . ELECTRICITY Meeting the electricity needs of rapid population growth, industry and a new and changing economy will pose challenges. In the past, California has confronted the challenges of tight energy supplies and rising energy costs resulting from the OPEC oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian oil crisis in 1979. From those experiences the state has learned a great deal and today it is well prepared to ensure that electricity supplies will remain adequate through 20103 a. Infrastructure Requirements The utilities within the SCAG region will have varying needs for new resources through 2010. These needs stern in part from growth in electricity use due to population growth and an expanding economy. The retirement of many older fossil fuel-fired power plants will also add to the region's resource needs. In meeting the resource needs for the utilities operating within the region, a mix of both demand-side and supply-side options will be used. Demand-side options include increased energy efficiency, conservation measures, and load management. Supply-side options include refurbishment of existing power plants, new generation construction, and electricity purchases from utility and non-utility sources. Under both the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and CEC policies, plans for future resource additions seek to minimize the social and private costs of meeting future needs. The ability of the electricity system to support SCAG's growing economy will depend on how it addresses the environmental challenges of achieving air quality goals. As a result of increasing concern over air quality, new regulations will affect the operation and expansion of the electricity sector. To a large extent, the cost of complying with air quality regulations will influence electricity technology development, resource choices, and the fuel mix of our generating resource base. Based on the Energy Commission's recently adopted 1992 Electricity Report (ER 92), by 2011 the baseline resource plans for SCAG-region utilities (includes Southern California Edison, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena and Imperial Irrigation District) forecast a total need for 41,400 MW of electricity resources. The forecasts include 7,600 MW of uncommitted Demand Side Management (DSM) programs and 5,700 MW of other pending and uncommitted generation additions by 2011. Table 12-4 summarizes the projected levels of electricity DSM that the CEC believes ought to be added as part of the least-cost integrated resource planning strategy for the southern California region. These DSM resources are beyond those included within the baseline demand forecast, and represent the CEC's identification of additional cost-effective DSM program savings that are preferred to any new generation resource addition. 3 19'92 Electricity Report, California Energy Commission, P104-92-001,January 1993. Page 12-12 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Twelve • Energy Table 12-4: Summary of Demand-Side Resource Additions Energy Savings (GWh) Capacity Savings (MW) 1996 2003 2011 1996 2003 2011 Southern California Edson Energy 1,73 9,08 16,88 342 1,97 4,034 Efficiency 9 1 7 5 Dispatchable 0 0 0 978 1,16 1,399 Loads 7 Losses 141 736 1,368 107 254 440 Saved TOTAL 1,88 9,81 18,25 1,427 3,39 5,873 0 7 5 6 Los Angeles DWP Energy 531 1,89 3,521 165 641 1,215 Efficiency 8 ' Dispatchable 0 0 0 133 133 133 Loads Losses 72 256 476 40 104 182 Saved TOTAL 603 2,15 3,997 339 878 1,530 4 Source: 1992 Electricity Report, Table 5-1, p. 5-13. Table 12-5 identifies generation facility additions/repowerings found cost-effective in the base case. The base case electricity plans include existing, committed, and some future uncommitted resource additions`. While the current electricity procurement process cannot ensure that these specific facilities will be added, these additions would reduce utility and social costs. Some portion of the 10,000 MW of new generating capacity needed may be provided through advanced construction technologies and some portion may be outside the region. This includes the repowering of existing oil and gas-fired units with cleaner burning combined cycle units up to about 3,000 MW. Up to about 630 MW of geothermal and wind resources are projected to be cost-effective resource additions by 2011. L Additional transmission lines and facilities will also be required to ensure delivery of energy. Planned transmission projects include Los Angeles Department of Water and Power's committed 500 kV Mead- Adelanto line ($275 million) and Imperial Irrigation District's proposed 500 kV Southern Arizona Transmission Project ($150 million). Both projects, if constructed, will offer 2,200 MW of additional transfer capability from the southwest to California. r Committed resources generally have all necessary approvals or have a high probability of success. Uncommitted resources have been determined under the CEC's ER 92 process to be cost-effective resource additions. These resources'costs set a ceiling for non-utility suppliers'contracts that may replace or defer the specific resources in the base case. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-13 Chapter Twelve • Energy Table 12-5: Summary of Cost-Effective Electrical System Generation Additions Capacity Added Year Addition (MW) 1997 Geothermal IDR (Set-Aside) 50 1997 Geothermal IDR (Non-Set-Aside) 50 1997 Wind IDR (Set-Aside) 25 1997 Wind IDR (Non-Set-Aside) 25 1998 San Bernardino 1 & 2 Repower IDR 400 (274 MW Biddable) 1999 Geothermal IDR (Set-Aside) 100 1999 Geothermal IDR (Non-Set-Aside) 100 2020 Huntington Beach 3 Repower 600 2002 Coolwater 1 & 2 Repower 239 2006 Alamitos Unit 1 Repower 582 2008 Alamitos Unit 2 Repower 582 2009 Huntington Beach 4 Repower 600 2011 1 Geothermal Unit 230 b. Environmental Impacts Since the great majority of environmental impacts from power plants are air emissions from the combustion of natural gas, impacts are described in the natural gas discussion below. 2. NATURAL GAS As described earlier, current natural gas demand forecasts envision regional natural gas demand rising from about 2,500 mmcfd to 3,600 mmcfd, or about 40 percent increase during this period. Table 12-6 provides greater sectoral specificity for this regional forecast. a. Inirrastructure Requirements The great majority of natural gas supplies meeting demand in California are from out of state, primarily the southwest US and Canada. Only about 10 percent of the state's end-use natural gas demand is served with instate natural gas. Evaluation of the natural gas supply/demand balance and the need for new resource Page 12-14 0 December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Twelve • Energy additions, either gas supplies or the pipeline capacity required to deliver these supplies, is performed as part of the CCC's biennial Fuels Report proceedings. The CEC currently sees ample natural gas resources and increased capacity, resulting from additional pipeline construction in the past five years, to deliver natural gas supplies into California. Few additions to natural gas delivery infrastructure will be required; the additions will mainly augment storage capacity to allow seasonal peak requirements to be met, such as on cold winter days.' b. Environmental Impacts The retail users of natural gas (residential, commercial, and industrial) have two categories of emissions: (1) those resulting from fuel combustion, and (2) those resulting from the production processes employed in business and household activities. NOx and SOx largely stem from fuel combustion, while ROGs generally stem from both the use of organic chemicals and vehicle emmissions. Current emission models project fuel combustion emissions for retail users directly from the combustion of natural gas, with the addition of emission control requirements established by various air quality rules. Power plant users of natural gas have emissions projected, assuming NOx controls as required by SCAQMD's Rule 1135 and similar rules from other districts regulating SCE's powerplants. The non-combustion projections are driven by the level of r economic activity of the sector, again modified by any District regulations. Table 12-6 provides a summary of the emissions stemming from natural gas usage in southern California. 3. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Petroleum impact assessment is the most complex of the three primary energy forms, because there are both direct and indirect environmental consequences of its use, and because the infrastructure analyses required to translate regional changes in consumption into regional changes in infrastructure are highly involved. In addition, unlike electricity or natural gas, petroleum product demand spans a considerable range of distinctly different products, from gasoline to bunker fuel for ships. a. Infrastructure Requirements The infrastructure associated with petroleum fuels is much more complex than that connected to the i traditional stationary usage of electricity or natural gas. Since petroleum products are liquids, they are commonly moved in bulk shipments, not through pipelines. California's major use of imported crude oil from Alaska and foreign sources, and its relative geographic isolation from the Gulf Coast production and refining regions, have reduced the degree to which pipelines are an important mechanism in California for moving either crude or refined products compared to other regions of the nation. In the future, the CEC sees California becoming more dependent upon foreign sources of crude since Alaska production is already beginning to decline with the exhaustion of existing North Slope fields. c 61991 Fuels Report California Energy Commission, P300-91-018, December 1991.Principal Authors:Jairam Gopal and Constance Leni. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-15 Chapter Twelve • Energy Table 12-6: Summary of Natural Gas Emissions Projections (average tons/day) Sector/Year NOx sox ROG Residential 1987 32 0.2 0.7 2000 24.9 0.2 0.7 2010 26 0.2 0.8 Cornmercial 1987 23.2 1.3 1.5 2000 21.9 1.6 1.7 2010 23.2 1.7 1.9 Industrial 1987 41.6 0.4 9.9 2000 38.1 0.5 11.6 2010 42.4 0.5 12.4 NG Vehicles 1987 0 0 0 2000 4.6 0.3 5.2 2010 6.1 0.6 5.2 TEOR 1987 19.9 0 1.7 2000 16.3 0 3.8 2010 16.2 0 3.8 Powerplants 1987 40 0.3 1.28 2000 13.41 0.48 2.76 2010 14.62 0.51 3.59 Total Activity 1987 156.7 2.2 15.08 2000 119.21 3.08 25.76 2010 128.52 3.51 27.69 Source: :EC Staff emissions projection models. Page 12-16 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Twelve • Energy The infrastructure consists of several distinct stages involved in both the production and usage of petroleum products: (1) production and transportation for refining, (2) refining, (3) distribution after refining, and (4) infrastructure required for vehicle usage. Chapter 4 of the Energy Background Document reviews the first three stages, but emphasizes that the majority of infrastructure needs for petroleum fuels will be related to transportation network improvements. These are discussed in detail in the Background Document, and summarized in Table 12-7. Table 12-7: Summary of Transportation Infrastructure Element 1990 2000 2010 Highways Lane Miles 7,007 7,700 8,445 HOV Miles 105 1,000 1,739 Transit Vehicles 2,294 2,500 2,835 Route Miles 16,492 17,000 18,062 Source: All information concerning baseline transportation infrastructure additions are developed from internal SCAG working documents prepared for the Mobility Element. 5w b. Environmental Impacts Most of the environmental consequences of petroleum usage come from combustion of refined petroleum products in cars and trucks. Emissions from the refinery process and the distribution of petroleum fuels across the region provide small, but still significant, components of overall petroleum emissions. In the effort to control emissions in the region, SCAQMD considers each of these source categories to be worth regulating in the path toward achievement of ambient standards. f Table 12-8 presents emissions from the combustion of petroleum fuels. Transportation-related emmissions resulting from combustion of liquid fuel have been prepared using the most recent ARB methods. Emissions from petroleum product use occur both in the actual combustion as well as in the handling and transfer of these liquid products. Emissions from fuel combustion are prepared using the same model described above in the stationary use of natural gas, but the driving factor is petroleum fuel use. L SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-17 Chapter Twelve • Energy Table 12-8: Summary of Petroleum Combustion Emissions avers a tons per day) NOx ROG 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Gasoline Automobiles 319 172 104 430 237 121 Light/Medium Trucks 143 117 105 142 87 51 Heavy Trucks 15 6 3 6 2 1 Motorcycles 2 2 3 7 7 9 Subtotal 479 297 215 585 333 182 Light Distillates Automobiles 6 1 1 1 0 0 Light/Medium Trucks 1 0 0 1 0 0 Heavy Trucks 207 191 226 30 32 40 Transit Buses 10 10 11 2 2 2 Aviation 16 19 21 18 17 18 Commerce 39 41 42 1 2 2 Industry 18 20 21 1 1 1 Powerplants 6 1 6 0 0 1 Subtotal 303 284 328 55 54 63 Heavy Distillates Ships 34 37 37 1 1 1 Industry 0 0 0 0 0 0 Powerplants 0 0 0 0 0 0 Subtotal 34 37 37 1 1 1 Total Emissions 816 618 580 641 388 246 Note: Ship and aviation emissions from SCAQMD, 1991 AQMP, Tech Report V-C. Commercial and industrial emissions from CEC spreadsheet model. Page 12-18 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan e� Chapter Twelve 0 Energy E. EFFICIENCY OPTIONS ASSESSMENT 1 . INTRODUCTION While energy supplies can be obtained in adequate quantities to meet needs projected in the previous sections, options exist to reduce the costs, environmental impacts, and security risks projected use will entail. This section outlines a range of resource efficiency options under four broad categories of local/regional decision- making. From this large set, a screening process is used to select a set of efficiency opportunities for detailed evaluation described in subsequent sections. k. 2. COMPREHENSIVE EFFICIENCY OPTIONS Energy efficiency options span a variety of technical and policy measures. Rather than being exhaustive, this chapter illustrates an evaluation of the integrated consequences stemming from introduction of a comprehensive set of potential measures. The concept shows that measures generally considered to be derived from energy policy have consequences in a far broader set of forums. Again, recognition of the interconnections among segregated policy processes is a central goal of the chapter. As noted previously, the energy efficiency options were considered under four broad categories, described below. While these categories are not mutually exclusive, they historically have been examined in different forums by different policy-makers, frequently in different agencies with focused or single-purpose missions. a. Building and Appliances A large number of technical measures exist to improve the energy efficiency and the environmental consequences of using energy for buildings and appliances that serve human needs. California has been a pioneer in developing energy efficiency regulations, utility retrofit programs, and public assistance programs to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and appliances within the state. As a result, the state now consumes about 15 percent less electric energy per unit of economic activity than it did in 1975, when this effort began. Additional efficiencies are expected and are embodied within the long term baseline demand forecasts. ( b. Land-Use Land-use efficiency opportunities relate primarily to the development of land to support residential, commercial, and industrial growth. These opportunities occur in a wide range of scales, from development of new cities to individual development projects. Measures classified here may have considerable consequences for building energy demand, community infrastructure, and transportation. For example, higher-density attached housing generally is more energy efficient than detached single-family homes because of common sidewalls, which reduce the consumption of electricity and natural gas used for space E conditioning. Also, by placing residents closer together, transit options become more feasible and transit use increases as routes can be closer to greater numbers of people. Guiding development to take advantage of existing transmission and distribution facilities and infill opportunities, balancing housing with job-creating commercial developments, and incorporating other site design options have a variety of energy-demand and infrastructure consequences. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-19 t. i Chapter Twelve • Energy c. Movement of People, Material, and Information Transportation options address four broad groups of measures: (1) increased efficiencies in the energy and infrastructure required to continue use of personal automobiles, (2) mode shifts to transit as a substitute for the personal car, (3) other transportation demand management options to reduce travel altogether, and (4) system management measures to improve capacity use. d. Infrastructure Infrastructure, as analyzed in this category, includes water supply, waste-water disposal, and solid waste disposal. Efficiency options included in this category consist of water conservation, improved efficiency in pumping, and waste recycling programs that reduce the amount of waste in the disposal system. 3. COMPREHENSIVE EFFICIENCY OPTIONS a. Screening Options Among the large numbers of potential energy efficiency options that could be assessed, a manageable number of lcey options were identified through a two-stage screening process. In Stage One of this process, a long list of options was constructed within each of the four categories, constrained only by judgments that potential energy, environmental, or infrastructure impacts could be significant when implemented. In Stage Two, a moire intensive, semi-quantitative screening process was used that examined each option for nine criteria: • Ability to quantify impacts • Energy reduction potential • Rate of energy reduction • Cost effectiveness • Environmental impacts • Technical feasibility • Enforceability • Energy security impacts • Equity impacts The purpose of these criteria is to identify measures with larger impacts, or ones with greater net benefits, from multiple-decision perspectives. Throughout the process, the goals included ensuring that energy service needs were met as economically and efficiently as possible; thus absolute "conservation, i.e. doing without", was not an intention. The ability to be enacted by regional or local government, or at least supported in state or federal forums, was examined later in the process. During Stage One, the list was narrowed to 55 intermediate options. These 55 options were then subjected to an evaluation using the nine criteria listed above. The results are shown in Table 12-9. Page 12-20 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan s Chapter Twelve • Energy Table 12-9: Interne late Options Score Relative Rank ption Buildings and App lances: Standards and Regulations • Title 24 Enforcement 93 5 • Supplemental Building Standards 103 1 • Existing Building Energy Efficiency Ordinance 97 4 • Solar Access Ordinance 83 11 • Local Appliance Standard 93 5 Incentive Programs • Collaborative Process Participation 85 10 • Expedite Permits 83 11 Design Assistance • Design Assistance for Government Buildings 89 8 • Design Assistance for Private Buildings 93 5 • Neighborhood Energy System 89 8 Public Information and Labeling • Promote Efficient Behavior 103 1 • Home Energy Rating System 99 3 • SCAG Design Competition 1 83 11 Land Use: Regional Scale • Network of Compact Large Cities 87 8 • Network of Compact Small Cities 87 8 • Subregional Jobs/Housing Balance 75 10 • Regional Urban Expansion Limit Lines 71 11 • Regional-scale Telecommuting & Teleconferencing 87 8 City Scale • Compact and Contiguous Development Pattern 83 9 • Large Mixed-Use Centers 95 5 • City-wide Jobs/Housing Balance 93 6 Sub-City Scale • Mixed Residences & Work sites 103 1 • Dispersed Shops & Services 101 2 f • Concentrated Shops & Services 103 1 • Housing and Jobs Near Transit 93 6 • Services Near Transit 97 4 • Compact Housing 93 6 • Energy Efficient Street Design 83 9 Project Scale • Energy Efficient Landscaping and Site Design 91 7 t • Mixed Residences, Shops & Services, & Work sites 103 1 • Reduce Auto Parking & Improve Pedestrian, Bike, and Transit 99 3 Access SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 Page 12-21 Chapter Twelve • Energy Option Score Relative Rank ovement o eoo Te, Material. anil Information: Improvements in Vehicles or Fuels • Vehicle Technology 104 3 • Fuel Alternatives 101 4 Reducing VMT • Rideshare Programs 107 2 • Transit (Bus/Rail) 93 6 • Park & Ride/Shuttle Systems 90 7 • Telecommuting 96 5 • High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) Bus Lanes 87 8 • Parking/Congestion Pricing 90 7 • Bicycle/Pedestrian Improvements 112 1 Infrastructure: Water • Reduce Consumption of Water 109 1 • Use More Efficient Technology 89 8 • Reduce Length of Lines 87 9 Waste Water • Reduce Consumption of Water 101 5 • Use More Efficient Technology 89 8 • Reduce Length of Lines 87 9 Solid Waste • Increased Composting 103 3 • Zoning for Recycling 89 8 • Improve Efficiency of the Recycling Process 105 2 • Variable Rates for Garbage Collection • Improve Efficiency of Garbage and Collection Processing 103 4 • Waste to Energy 97 6 • Consumer Source Reduction 79 10 • More Durable Consumer Products 91 7 • Reuse of Commercial and Industrial Material 97 6 • Reuse of Household Items 97 6 b. Selecting Efficiency Opportunities In Stage Three of the screening process, the four highest-ranked options in Buildings and Appliances and in Infrastructure, as shown in Table 12-9, were selected for further analysis. All of the options in Movement of People, Material, and Information were selected for further analysis, although several were combined and refined. Many of the measures in Land Use were combined and incorporated with increased transit—this was done because of the close interconnection between land use and transportation, and because of the methodological difficulties and lack of data to measure the energy impacts, on a regional scale, of subtle local differences; in land use. The options under Land Use and the Movement of People, Material, and Information were then combined into one category, Land-use and Mobility, to reflect this close interrelationship. The Page 12-22 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan boom Chapter Twelve • Energy outcome of Stage 3 was the selection of 17 options for detailed analysis these are summarized in the following sections. 0 Buildings and Appliances: 1. Supplemental Building Standards—Develop a regional building standard that supplements Title 24 and responds to the unique conditions of southern California. These standards address such issues as HVAC ducts, solar pool heating, building and roof color, day-lighting, and building commissioning (verifying that the HVAC and lighting systems in new buildings are operating properly). 2. Public Awareness Campaigns—Promote energy efficient behavior through public awareness campaigns. The types of behavior that would be promoted include using efficient lighting and refrigerators, maintaining residential HVAC systems, behavioral changes such as turning off lights when not needed, using solar water heating, and using energy efficient office equipment. 3. Home Energy Rating System—Implement a home energy rating system and an associated energy efficiency mortgage program. The rating system would involve a short inspection of the house, a computer-generated rating based on the inspection, and a set of recommendations for improving efficiency. 4. Existing Building (Retrofit) Ordinance—Address existing building stock through energy conservation ordinances that apply at the time a building is sold or leased. These ordinances could address such issues as ceiling insulation, pipe and duct insulation, water heater jackets, and low-flow devices. • Land Use and Mobility: S. Vehicle Efficiency Standards—Adopt state standards, through the DRIVE+ process,' that call for increased vehicle efficiencies. These standards, which deal with fleet fuel efficiency, are already included in federal and state statutes. 6. Fuel Quality—Implement requirements for using alternative fuels such as oxygenated gasoline, flexible fuel vehicles, alternate fuel vehicles, and electric vehicles. These standards have been promulgated by the California Air Resources Board. L 7. Increased Vehicle Occupancy—Implement ride sharing, park and ride, and high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) and bus lanes. The intent is to increase the average vehicle occupancy from the current level of about 1.2 persons per vehicle. 8. Tel ecommut ing—Pro mote telecommuting programs that reduce the number of trips per day per employee, with potential net reductions in congestion and air emissions. These programs include measures to encourage people to work at local telecommuting centers or at home. °DRIVE+ stands for Demand-based Reductions in Vehicle Emissions Plus Improvements in Fuel Economy;the program uses sales taxes as incentives or disincentives. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-23 Chapter Twelve • E=nergy L Pedestrian and Bicycle Emphasis—Provide pedestrian and bicycle facilities within a pattern of compact, mixed-use, transit-oriented development. The intent is to replace automobile trips that are five miles or less. E. Transit and Land-Use Emphasis—Provide increased transit facilities within a pattern of compact, mixed- use, transit-oriented development. The transit modes include bus, light rail, commuter rail, and scheduled shuttle service. The more compact land-use patterns will also produce savings in embodied energy and energy used for operations of the buildings. 11. Congestion Pricing--Charge more for automobile travel that takes place at times of high congestion as a wary of distributing travel over time and encouraging transit use. This is typically implemented through toll facilities on major commuter corridors, either during peak commute periods or 24 hours per day. 12. Parking Pricing—Charge more for parking in congested destinations as a way to reflect the true cost of providing parking. 13. Enew-Efficient Landscaping and Site Design—Encourage water-conserving landscaping, site buildings to take advantage of prevailing winds, and use landscaping for shading. This measure also will produce water savings. • Infrastructure: 14. Reduction of Water Consumption—Reduce water consumption to decrease the energy needed for water and waste-water pumping and treatment. In addition to reducing water and energy demand, this measure also reduces the amount of waste water that must be collected and treated. 15. Increased Composting—Increase composting as a means to reduce energy needed to transport and process solid waste. This approach is very efficient because backyard composting requires virtually no energy. This measure also reduces the need for landfill. 16. Improved Efficiency of the Recycling Process—Increase the efficiency of the processes used to collect and process recycled material. The improvements that could be made include co-collection of trash and recyclables, using energy-efficient vehicles, and using efficient routes. 17. Variable Rates for Garbage Collection—Implement a variable rate system that would encourage reductions in waste generation and encourage composting. The intent is to have a relatively low rate for a level of basic service with an escalating rate for additional garbage cans or bags. Page 12-24 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Q Chapter Twelve • Energy F. EFFICIENCY OPPORTUNITY EVALUATION 1 . EVALUATION METHODOLOGY The 17 opportunities identified through the screening process were evaluated for energy, air quality, and infrastructure impacts. To accomplish this, a significant effort was invested to develop quantitative descriptions of the efficiency opportunities. Additionally, estimates of penetration of measures were required along with quantification of consequent impacts upon specific economic sectors used in the baseline forecast. A series of forecasting and impact projection models developed at the CEC or adapted from the work of others were used to complete the latter task. The quantitative description of options is found in the Energy Background Document. In fact, one primary objective in the energy analysis was to develop and describe analytic steps and modeling tools necessary for a thorough evaluation of efficiency options from an integrated perspective. 2. EVALUATION RESULTS Results of the evaluation are presented for 2010 in Table 12-10. The opportunities identify a range of outcomes from energy consumption and environmental impact air emission perspectives. Results also change over time. The Energy Background Document provides detailed results for 2000 and 2005. These results show that some measures have greater near-term impacts, and would appear to be me~e effective if rapid change was desirable. Overall agenda implementation could result in a savings in 20!0 of 24,000 GWh of electricity and 1,300 million therms of natural gas. A total of 530,000 billion BTUs could be saved with resulting NO= and ROG reduction totaling 40,000 and 31,000 tons per year, respectively. r It is important to read the notes immediately following Table 12-10 to interpret the table accurately. Also, it is important to note that the results are illustrative—somewhat different results could be produced with changes in the many assumptions that went into the analysis; these are described in the Energy Background Document. Measure #5, Vehicle Efficiency Standards, showed the highest energy savings in 2000 and the second highest savings in 2010. Although the region could not implement unilaterally, this high result is not surprising, f considering the measure directly affects one of the major users of energy, the private automobile. This measure also showed the highest benefits in emissions improvements for NOx, SOx, and ROG. Measure #2, Public Awareness Campaigns, achieved the second highest energy savings in 2000 and first in 2010. The reasons for its high showing are that it is actually a collection of a number of concepts under a common strategy, the measure potentially affects some percentage of all new and existing buildings, and the measure assumes some significant changes in human behavior. L. Measures #11 and #12, Congestion Pricing and Parking Pricing, were in third place in 2000 until Fuel Quality began to have a more significant impact and captured third place in 2010. The two pricing strategies were combined because the available methodologies and data did not enable the analysis to distinguish between the two. These combined measures also scored quite high in reducing emissions. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-25 Chapter Twelve • E=nergy Measure #6, Fuel Quality, was in fourth place in 2000 and third place in 2010. The major reason for its improvement by 2010 probably was the continued increase in electric cars, which operate quite efficiently compared to the internal) combustion engine. This measure produced the second highest savings in emissions. Measure 1110, Transit and Land-Use Emphasis, was in fifth place in all three years. This is a result of both a shift from automobiles to transit and an energy savings due to increased densities. This measure probably will have an increasing relative impact after 2010 because land-use patterns take some time to have produce an energy benefit. Measure P, Increased `Vehicle Occupancy, was in sixth place in energy savings in all three years. This measure also rated quite high in reducing emissions. Page 12-26 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Twelve • Energy fh h N N In G) V (0 CO O � C 'Q f- In M O O 2 '0 O O r- c0 CO N O O O Ln CO N In C7 CV O M (-� CO N N V O O O V N N (n 0 M O M r M i CO L V N 0 0 F- () C CD (-. N h to N O O O N O (D 00 M CO N (0 (n CO (0 X CD 0? M N N (� M CD (0 0 C O N O V CO n N h N V M M N M CO O CD N V D7 r r M N N (- h (A D M (n V N (n to N V (0 O n h V (0 M M O (n (0 to O O (0 M M V I� X O M M n N M n CD D) M M CO M 00 M M CO O C CO N (n M O M V M CO (n I- M M N Z M r N a) 0i CO N (n V N �- V N N .- V M O N V O CO N CO N O O O O O 7 O CO M (0 7 M (n M (n (� (n In (n (n (n M (n CD V V M (, (/l V N N 1, (- M (- (n M M V) V D C N (n CO V_ (0 (0 CO M (n CO N V CO M n _� M (n to (n ;7 M M C) t0 O V CO m N V (n O O O O O O O O C C (0 (0 (0 h h h M O M CO CO C\j 0 •� 60 O O CO O 0 C A n N n T Z _ O M O (n N N (n O N CO N ai o o (o v Cl) Cl) c E d y o o o 0 0 0 0 00 _c c c of r� n ri Cri v v r� f6 W o o O ao N N 11 a .r M M -O CL 0 c I LO E CO a Ln CO CD W �/I N M N C N 5 7 O C Z .- N (O _M rp,p V N (O (0 M t0 N O O T CO O O n H C ` 3 V P O N _O M M (0 (n (n M M m •; O V (- V CD (.- M I� O n n V U Vr M 1� ►� _ • 1� O N N wM W V M N M V/ L 2) h + CD m C C h M -� L fn N m LU 7 E ` , E m m c g Lg E y qq A °' m I > > C E w 6 g' m 7i E (J O °' EmQ9w �n wvid � � E `° W N °- (°vmmym � mo, m cli d � nm g,g' (v °' m � m ao y �, � `a °iN � ° � ' ba M M A o m x m g (� m �i Y o m E¢¢ A � (nmaU = Q W O > c) (L � OF- (L00 -j Lam cc t 0 > (7 � h0 N M V (n (0 h CO M O M V (n (D 1, 0 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-27 MEOW Chapter Twelve • Energy Notts to aoocmpay Table 12.10: 1. The energy savings as enpne►xd in the cnhara&are for Ox year indicated in the title Inc of the table and assume that the inrirmematim of the vsrias measures begin&in 1995. 2. CNG(ocormsasd natural gas)and rnothu"arc expressed in milli=of equivalent ga0=of gasoline. 3. Electricity is oon erred to BTUs wing a relationship of 3415 RTU per kWh. 4. Natural gas 6 co n-rted to BTUs wipS a telati=hip of 0.1 million BTU per therm. 3. Gasoline is ocaw ed to BTUs using a relationship of 125,000 BTU per gallon of gssoime. 6. Diesel is convened to BTUs wing a relationship of 5.8 million BTU per barrel of Diced fuel. 7. CNG mod methanol ac convened to BTUs in the same mama as gasoline because they am expreaaod in equivalent gall=of gasoline. 8. The analysis of Measures 5 through 12 is intereonnocmd: • Measure 6 asaur es that Most-5 is in place. • Measures 7 through 12 assume that Measures 5 and 6 hove been'irWknwntod; the numbers in the ooitams for Mecums 7 through 12 teyresont the savigs oAer 5 and 6 tae in plan. • Measures I I and 12 am the aiditi=I savings if pricing mocivtums arc impkvocrited along with Measures 7 through 10. 9. The NOx,SOx,and ROG w calculated wing the following emissions factors: NO, SO, ROG units Electricity 0.5 AM negligible tmsK'Wh Natural Gus t=/millim therms Residential 2.774 .109 .036 conmerctal 6.570 .292 .438 Gasoline t=/miWas,gallon WOO 18.068 1.217 72.184 3005 15.097 1.222 16.727 3DIOi 12.125 1.206 11.269 Diesel tms/millim ga0= 3000 82.493 3S57 13.954 '_005 78.212 3294 13.503 2010 73.930 3.051 13.051 cNG t=/milli-gallons 20M 16.746 1.144 20.667 2005 13.537 1 D97 15.210 2010 10328 1.049 9.793 Methanol ms/millim Babes MW II-W ,D7 14319 M05 10.197 Au 11.655 3DI0 8.853 .900 8.49D Page 12-28 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Twelve • Energy The highest-ranking measures should not be considered the winners to the detriment of other lower-ranking measures. The SCAG region is very large and diverse—what works in one area may not be appropriate in another. Also, the cost and ease of implementation may vary widely among the various measures and should be a major factor in selecting a package of strategies for the region, a subregion, or local government. Several measures also produce benefits that are not reflected in Table 12-10. Measure #13, Landscaping and Site Design, and Measure #14, Reduction of Water Consumption, both result in less water being used (see Table 12-11). Table 12-11: Projected Reduction of Water Consumption (acre-feet) 2000 2005 2010 Measure 13 52,348 97,815 145,451 Measure 14 713,003 769,399 826,828 Measure #15, Increased Composting, reduces the need for additional landfill. Measure #17, Variable Rates for Garbage Collection, may result in a reduction of packing and other materials over the long term. Measures #15, #16, and #17 together are assumed to divert significant amounts of solid waste as part of the AB 939 implementation (see Table 12-12). Table 12-12: Projected Diversion of Solid Waste (tons) 2000 2005 2010 L Measure 15 2,793,054 6,982,634 1,396,527 Measure 16 3,013,975 7,534,938 1,506,988 Measure 17 3,238,942 8,097,355 1,619,471 c The purpose of this chapter is not to advocate one measure over another. All 17 measures are worthy of at least an initial look to see if they are appropriate in a given circumstance. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-29 Chapter Twelve • E=nergy The results provided in 'Table 12-10 illustrate the impacts of each measure, should it be fully implemented as described throughout the SCAG region. These impacts cannot be fully achieved since the interactions among measures have not been eliminated. Of course, the total impacts of all these illustrative measures could only be accomplished through concerted efforts by many jurisdictions—local, regional, state, and federal—working toward a common end. A combined energy and air emissions analysis reveals that several transportation measures achieve the largest air quality benefits. Higher fuel economy or shifts toward alternate fuels do not, however, contribute to the reduction or even mitigation of transportation congestion. Unfortunately, this suggests that the most effective air quality measures may be low on the scale of mobility planning. Major shifts toward alternate energy forms for transportation also raise a series of fuel supply and distribution issues that require additional examination. Close coordination between these perspectives is needed to achieve a balanced solution to the region's problems. What is most revealing are the powerful impacts of appealing successfully to energy consumers through public awareness campaigns. How to accomplish this is unclear, but the large benefits of doing so, and the love costs of the effort, make this measure one that should be explored by every jurisdiction The RCP process illustrates how difficult it is to analytically assess measures cutting across many jurisdictions, let alone achieve the impacts required through collective action. While many jurisdictions cannot individually pursue some of these measures, the presumption of regional implementation used for analytical purposes illustrates how important collective action can be compared to individual action. Greater benefits can frequently be achieved, and probably at lower costs, to a group of jurisdictions working together on a common measure rather than through individual actions. Individual jurisdictions, however, can implement some of these measures in the area of their responsibility and achieve some portion of these impacts should they desire to do so. Implementation of individual measures in the agenda is discussed in detail in the Background Document and summarized in Section G of this chapter. G. EFFICIENCY OPPORTUNITY AGENDA: IMPLEMENTATION The implementation strategies for the 17 measures vary considerably because the measures themselves are so diverse. Some depend upon changing public behavior, while others can be mandated by local governments. At a minimum, SCAG can play a major role in providing for an exchange of information among its members and developing joint programs with energy utilities, other public agencies, and private businesses. 1 . INDIVIDUAL MEASURES The: following is a brief summary of implementation strategies: • 14easure ill—Supplernental Building Standards. This measure would be implemented by cities and counties through the adoption and enforcement of the supplemental standards in the form of a local ordinance. General plan policies supporting the supplemental standards would be useful to provide a policy backup to the ordinances. The preparation of the supplemental building standards would best be done at a regional scale to provide consistency among all local governments that desired to participate. The development process should Page 12-30 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Twelve • Energy allow for extensive involvement of the building industry and local government officials so that the standards are both practical and useful. Other entities, such as SCAG and energy utilities, could provide major assistance by developing model codes. This measure could accompanied by the following: a technical assistance program; energy and water use evaluation requirements for large-scale developments; incentives for extra-efficient projects; and a monitoring and evaluation element to track the effectiveness of the supplemental standards. • Measure #2—Public Awareness Campaigns. As the Energy Commission's July 1993 Energy Efficiency Report makes clear, the single greatest impediment to a more energy-efficient, energy-reducing society from our high-rises to our highways, from our daily activities to our dreams for the future is the public reluctance to make energy-wise decisions. Carefully coordinated Public awareness campaigns could be implemented by energy utilities, local governments, regional agencies, and state agencies. Basic information is most efficiently developed at a state or regional level, with campaigns conducted at a more local level. Programs to educate and inform the public can be introduced and distributed through a number of channels, including schools, community centers and gathering places, cable television stations, newspapers, and direct mailings. • Measure 0-11ome Energy Rating System. The California Home Energy Efficiency Rating System (CHEERS), Inc. has been formed to promote the use of a uniform, statewide home energy rating system. CHEERS is a public-private partnership that includes lenders, real estate agents, HVAC and insulation contractors, utilities, public interest groups, and government. Energy utilities have been successful in implementing this type of program, and this approach could be continued. State and regional agencies, such as SCAG and the CEC, as well as local governments could assist energy utilities by providing opportunities to help make people aware of the program and its benefits. • Measure N4—Existing Building (Retrofit) Ordinance. Implementation of existing building retrofit ordinances occurs primarily at the local level, and usually at the time a building is sold or leased. This measure would be implemented primarily by cities and counties with the adoption of an energy retrofit ordinance. Local control is important because a retrofit ordinance must reflect the fabric of a community and not lead to the destruction of historic and other significant buildings. Since retrofit ordinances would be adopted mostly by local governments, regional agencies could provide an important role as sources of information. Regional agencies could undertake a survey of local retrofit ordinances and could develop model ordinances for consideration by cities and counties. Supplementing such ordinances could be education and incentive programs; a mandatory audit ordinance; and special provisions for buildings in redevelopment areas. t • Measure #5—Vehicle Efficiency Standards. This measure is implemented at the federal and state level in accordance with legislative mandates from laws such as the federal Clean Air Act and the California Clean Air Act. No action need be taken by SLAG, other regional agencies, or local governments at this time. • Measure #6—Fuel Quality. Implementing the development of alternative fuels; including electric, natural gas, and others; to reduce reliance on imported gasoline will be undertaken primarily at state and federal levels, in coordination with the oil and gas industries. Low-emission vehicle standards have already been adopted by the state. Local governments can assist primarily by purchasing these vehicles as an example to their residents, as well as through hosting demonstrations and test-rides of these vehicles. Regional agencies and energy utilities can do the same, plus undertake public awareness campaigns to encourage use of low emission-vehicles. SCAG 0 Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-31 Chapter Twelve • Energy . • Measure !/7—Increased Vehicle Occupancy. All levels of government can contribute to the implementation of this measure. Local governments can require or encourage carpool and vanpool programs; trip reduction ordinances, which must be adopted by local governments, identify programs to encourage ridesharing in carpools and vanpools. While many of the needed programs are in place, a local jurisdiction can enhance effectiveness by helping fund information and promotion campaigns, and construct preferential parking, among other items. Regional and state transportation agencies can provide for HOV lanes between communities. All levels of government can conduct public awareness campaigns to encourage increased vehicle occupancy. • Measure H8—Telecommuting. Local governments can encourage telecommuting by adopting such programs for their employees, allowing or encouraging local telecommuting centers through their general plan and land-use regulations, and allowing or encouraging people to work at home through their home occupations ordinances. The viability of telecommuting, however, is largely beyond the control of local jurisdictions; although telecommuting centers can be programmed into future developments or retro-fitted into existing areas through zoning requirements, but may be difficult to monitor over time. State and regional agencies can help implement telecommuting through information campaigns and by providing opportunities for employees to telecommute themselves. More specific implementation ideas include the provision of credit to employers subject to a trip reduction ordinance for telecommuting employees and the organization of forums and workshops for local employers to explain the benefits of telecommuting. • Measure 119—Pedestrian and Bicycle Emphasis. This would be implemented primarily by cities and counties through their general plans, specific plans, design guidelines, and land-use ordinances. The local governments could require an integrated system of pedestrian and bicycle paths, bike storage facilities, and shower facilities. More compact land use patterns, especially involving mixed uses, would also assist in this measure. Although local governments assume primary power to implement this measure, regional agencies, especially those responsible for transportation and air quality, could encourage local governments to adopt programs which support bicycle ridership and pedestrianism. Regional agencies also could coordinate the efforts of cities and counties to assure a regional system. To assist in the implementation of the measure, the following strategies could be considered: appointment of a bicycle/pedestrian coordinator or advocate; amendment of subdivision ordinances to require pathways and/or a system of paths; development and distribution of maps which clearly illustrate bicycle and pedestrian systems; and, establishment of education programs. • :Measure N10—Transit and Land-Use Emphasis. This measure deals with the potential for energy savings from increased transit facilities within a pattern of compact, mixed use, transit-oriented development. This measure should be implemented by a range of public agencies. The transit system must start with a regional framework of linkages between major communities, residential centers, and employment centers. To be most effective, this must be accompanied by local government programs that encourage growth around transit stops and stations, provide easy access to the stops and stations, provide for convenience services at transit stations, and provide for local feeder bus service. Related implementation strategies include: coordination with transit agencies to pursue joint development projects, including housing, adjacent to transit stations; provision of zoning incentives, including density bonuses; and adoption of specific plans around rail stations and transit centers. • Measure #11—Congestion Pricing. This measure can best be implemented on a regional basis. Tolls will produce side effects that must be understood by SCAG and other regional agencies in advance of their imposition. The tolls can be imposed by the state or by operators of private road or bridges. Little Page 12-32 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan AM Chapter Twelve • Energy opportunity exists for direct implementation of congestion pricing by local governments. At most, local agencies can work with regional agencies to facilitate their efforts. • Measure #12—Parking Pricing. This measure could be implemented on a regional or local level. The advantage of regional implementation is that the impacts upon business could be spread more evenly throughout the region. A local government could implement a parking pricing program to relieve congestion in certain areas or to encourage use of transit. The easiest method for local jurisdictions to implement parking pricing is to manipulate peak-hour rates at publicly-controlled parking facilities. Parking rates at private facilities are set based on competition: one indirect method of raising rates is to limit or otherwise control the number of private parking facilities in an employment area through zoning or design requirements. Finally, a city may choose to (a) lower parking requirements and set maximums for employers, allowing the r value of the displaced parking to be used to subsidize transit, vanpools, or other modes, (b) seek a cooperative agreement with parking operators where rates are set artificially high and the excess profits used for transit, or (c) institute a tax on private parking facilities that can be used to subsidize alternative modes. • Measure #13—Energy-Efficient Landscaping and Site Design. This measure would encourage water- conserving landscaping, site buildings to take advantage of prevailing winds, and use landscaping for shading. Homeowners planting a new yard, businesses creating facility amenities and cities with their street trees spend money on landscaping; the issue is to get them to use those funds to conserve energy. To that end, regional and local agencies and governments should develop guidelines or manuals for water- and energy-conserving landscaping in their communities. Additional implementation strategies related to this measure include: a strong enforcement system; installation of efficient landscapes at government facilities; community-based awards program for energy-efficient landscaping and site design; and, regular workshops and information sessions to educate the public about this measure. • Measure 1114—Reduction of Water Consumption. This measure aims at reducing water consumption to decrease the energy needed for water and waste-water pumping and treatment. It can be implemented by public awareness campaigns at all levels of government and by energy utilities. Basic information can be prepared at a state or regional level, energy utilities can disseminate information, and local governments can make information available. Local governments could work in collaboration with schools and other community-based centers to disseminate information as a way to implement this measure. • Measure #15—Increased Composting. The basic structure to reduce solid waste is in place with the passage of AB 939. All levels of government can undertake public awareness campaigns on the ease and 4 benefits of composting. As with other types of public awareness programs, the most efficient approach is to have material prepared at a state or regional level and then have local agencies customize it as necessary and disseminate it to local residents. Local agencies and governments can utilize a wide-range of channels to educate residents about composting. This outreach could include pamphlets, "How To" manuals, and live or televised demonstrations. Local entities can ensure that composing bins are available to local residents. Local governments should examine their general plan, zoning ordinance, and design guidelines to ensure that composting is not inadvertently discouraged. • Measure #16—Improved Efficiency of Recycling Process. This measure would be directly implemented by those entities, public or private, responsible for the collection of recycled materials. Regional agencies, such as SCAG, could assist in determining appropriate regional-level sites for collection and distribution centers, and processing facilities. Additionally, regional agencies could disseminate information to the public SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-33 • Chapter Twelve • Energy about recycling and ways to participate in the recycling process. Local governments would, at a minimum, need to be active partners in encouraging transfer stations and educating their residents about the program benefits. • Measure 1117—Variable Rates for Garbage Collection. This measure would be implemented by those entities that are responsible for setting garbage collection rates. Other entities could add support through providing information illustrating the benefits of variable rates. Most, if not all, local governments have control over garbage rates; therefore, they have the ability to adopt variable rates for their jurisdictions. Cities and counties should have policies in their general plans that call for variable rates in order to achieve land use and environmental goals. The variable rates would be adopted through whatever process is currently used to set rates. 2;. FINANCING Implementing energy projects is a challenge because they often require capital investments in order to realize energy and cost savings. Projects may be cost-effective, but unless a funding mechanism is available, they may not be implemented. In many cases, the financial resources and implementation strategies exist to improve energy efficiency and conservation in southern California. Since most of the 17 measures described will be effective only with public and business cooperation, and in many cases require little financial outlay by local governments, the guiding watchwords for the most productive funding options are "Education," "Partnership," and "Community Initiative." A number of funding mechanisms for these 17 energy measures are available through federal, state, and local sources. These different financing options have been summarized in "Energy Improvements Financing Alternatives Study" (KPMG Peat Marwick, December 1992), "San Diego Regional Energy Plan Financing Options" (Scripps Consulting Group, May 1993), and "Financing Strategies for Integrated Waste Management Programs" (Local Government Commission/League of California Cities/California State Association of Counties, May 1992). For the purposes of this discussion, these various options can be grouped into seven general categories: • Internal financing, directly from the local government's General Fund or special fund for capital projects General obligation and special revenue bonds 5{c • Municipal lease-purchase programs, including: • Single-issue, private-placement lease-purchase agreements, • Certificates of Participation, • Master leases designed to finance multiple projects, and • Line-of-credit. leases aimed at financing separate phases of projects; Page 12-34 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Twelve • Energy • Pooled financing and utility partnerships, in which a number of entities are combined under one joint financial authority for economies of scale; • Energy service companies; • California Energy Commission loan and technical assistance programs; and • Federal loans and grants. Some of the funding options for energy measures are direct and obvious: loans, rebates, and technical assistance from organizations in the energy business— whether from the federal EPA and the state's Energy Commission or the local utility company and appliance manufacturers. Other resources for local projects might come from funding for economic development and training- employment programs or from large partnerships between government, businesses, and community groups. Partnerships can also be formed that address separate but interconnected social issues that might be addressed simultaneously with the goal of saving energy. Local programs can be created and funded which blend resources from other "non-energy"avenues, such as economic development funds, business support, employment and educational grants, and community support. Sources of funding and illustrations of program partnerships are included in the analysis of funding for specific measures. 3. CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS Energy efficiencies can best be achieved when viewed in conjunction with other public policies. Implementation of energy measures should be integrated with implementation programs for transportation, air quality, land use, and other subject areas that are designed to make communities healthier and more pleasant places to live. The traditional planning practices within the energy, air quality, transportation, and land-use communities have been, and continue to be, very different. For example, the energy planning community uses a planning paradigm that requires consumer demand for energy be satisfied. The energy planning process is designed to t identify consumer demand and determine the least cost pattern of resource additions to match this demand. Energy planners use Demand-Side Management (DSM) programs to modify consumer demand for energy while meeting energy service requirements. The air quality planning process is driven by the need to identify feasible control measures to demonstrate attainment of mandated ambient standards without being constrained by quantification of costs and benefits. Transportation has traditionally been facility-oriented, using demand models to determine where congestion could best be minimized through infrastructure additions. Land-use planners attempt to reconcile many economic, social, and environmental objectives; they believe that transportation and land-use planning should be examined simultaneously to produce an integrated approach to urban form, land uses, densities, and facilities. These different planning paradigms, and emerging changes mandated in law, need to be better reconciled in the future to allow effective evaluation of all efficiency options. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 12-35 C hmp2sT i HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGEMENT • Introduction • Purpose • Goals • Major Findings ti • Background on the Tanner Planning Process • Hazardous Waste Generation in Southern California-1990 • Hazardous Waste Management in Southern California-1990 • Projection of Future Hazardous Waste Generation in Southern California • Future Hazardous Waste Management Capacity • Regional Hazardous Waste Policies • Integration of Hazardous Waste Management with Other Regional Issues c A. INTRODUCTION Hazardous wastes are generated by a wide range of businesses in Southern California, from printers and auto shops to large oil refineries and electronics manufacturers. Historically, many of these wastes were disposed along with ordinary garbage, and sent either to municipal landfills or into the sewer and through the local wastewater treatment plant. In the 1970s, the dangers of these practices became quite evident. Contamination of the water supply attributed to hazardous waste disposal around Love Canal, New York grabbed significant media attention and prompted both public concern and legislative action. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 13-1 Chapter Thirteen • h1azardous Waste Management The detrimental effects of improper hazardous waste management has become painfully well-known in Southern California. Major groundwater aquifers, relied upon by thousands of residents for drinking water, are now threatened with contamination from "volatile organic chemicals," which resulted from past waste management practices. PCBs and heavy metals disposed of through the publicly owned sewer system have resulted in contaminated fish and habitat in the region's oceans. In addition, local businesses and governments have expended considerable resources in attempting to remediate these problems. Significant efforts have been initiated in the past 20 years at the federal, state, regional, and local level to ensure that such mismanagement does not occur in the future. The major thrust of this effort, in addition to cleaning up contamination from past practices, was to create a stringent regulatory system that would govern how hazardous wastes are to be managed and, most importantly, disposed of. This system of federal, state, and local laws requires generators of hazardous waste to keep careful track of the waste they generate and to send their wastes to specified types of waste management facilities where the wastes can be either recycled, treated (to reduce its hazardous characteristics) or disposed of in an environmentally safe manner. The type of recycling, treatment, or disposal required by law varies according to the type of waste. One of the most critical factors in making this management system effective is to ensure enough capacity exists among the regional waste management facilities to provide the appropriate recycling, treatment, or disposal of the region's wastes. Without this capacity, hazardous wastes will be disposed of improperly, or will. have to be transported long distances to receive proper treatment or disposal. The transportation of hazardous wastes long distances poses significant health and safety risks. This chapter assesses the amount of current and future hazardous waste capacity in the region and is intended to help local governments plan for the development of new capacity, if needed. In addition, this chapter also assesses whether an equitable distribution of waste management facilities exists among Southern California counties and, if not, how such a distribution can occur. The region's Hazardous Waste Plan, of which this chapter is a summary, was prepared under the direction of the Southern California Hazardous Waste Management Authority (SCHWMA). SCHWMA is a joint powers authority whose board comprised elected officials from the six county SCAG region as well as Santa Barbara and San Diego counties. Thus, this plan covers Santa Barbara and San Diego counties in addition to the SCAG region. SCHWM.A completed its final Regional Hazardous Waste Management Plan (the "1989 Plan") in July 1989. This chapter and accompanying documentation constitutes an update to the 1989 Plan. It uses data on 1990 patterns of waste generation and management in the region and projects waste generation and management capacity requirements to 2010. B. PURPOSE This chapter is designed to assist the region's counties and cities, the regional councils of government, and the state, in their individual efforts to plan for current and future hazardous waste management requirements. It is also intended to provide the informational basis for further cooperation and dialogue among the citizens, businesses, and governments of the region and state in addressing what are collective concerns and needs for ensuring both economic viability, and safe hazardous waste management in Southern California. Page 13-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan i Chapter Thirteen • Hazardous Waste Management C. GOALS The hazardous waste chapter has two primary goals. They are the following: • To promote the following waste management hierarchy for hazardous wastes: 1. Waste Reduction. 2. Recycling and Reuse. 3. Safe Disposal. • To ensure adequate, appropriate, and environmentally safe waste management capacity in the region. While the first goal, encouraging waste reduction, is perhaps the most important hazardous waste management priority in the region, the analysis and policies in this chapter focus primarily on the second goal, ensuring adequate, appropriate, and environmentally safe waste management capacity in the region. This is because regional cooperation and decision-making are most critical in the area of facility siting and it is where E regional planning is most important. Thus, while SCAG and SCHWMA recognize the importance of hazardous waste minimization, and such policies are included in the regional hazardous waste plan, it is the capacity issue that is at the center of this chapter. These goals are closely linked to the overall goals of the RCP. Waste reduction, recycling, and safe disposal are consistent with the regional goal of providing a healthy and environmentally sound quality of life. In addition, adequate waste management capacity in the region ensures that businesses that produce hazardous r wastes have access to available waste management facilities, and is thus integral to economic growth in the region. D. MAJOR FINDINGS The analysis of current and future waste generation and waste management capacity in Southern California which serves as the basis for this plan resulted in several significant findings. These findings reveal a dynamic hazardous waste management system in the region with dramatic changes in certain types of waste r generation and in the waste management industry. These findings can be summarized as follows: • The amount of hazardous waste sent to be managed off-site increased by 20 percent between 1986 and 1990. • Excluding contaminated soils (which increased significantly in 1990 due primarily to a single large oil spill), total waste generation increased by only 2 percent between 1986 and 1990. • In addition to contaminated soils, the major waste category showing the largest increase was waste oil, which increased nearly 60 percent. This large increase is likely due to regulatory restrictions on waste oil and increasing public awareness of proper waste oil disposal methods, rather than to new, increased generation of waste oil. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 13-3 • Chapter Thirteen • ,Hazardous Waste Management • Some categories of'wastes showed marked decreases during this period, including metal-containing liquids (69 percent decrease), non-metallic inorganic liquids (down 55 percent), dye and paint sludges and resins (down 54, percent), non-metallic inorganic sludges (down 38 percent), PCBs and dioxins (down 25 percent), and non-halogenated solvents (down 19 percent). • Many waste management facilities in the region appear to be closing, due perhaps to increasing regulatory requirements, liability concerns, and the general economic downturn. • The region continues to lack sufficient capacity to safely manage the total amount of waste generated and must rely on management facilities out of the region and out of the state. • The region is projected to require a substantial number of new facilities for waste oil recovery. In addition, to manage the waste generated within the region, one large incinerator is needed. Finally, existing residual repository capacity will likely be exhausted by 2010 and, therefore, additional residual capacity is necessary. • A number of new facilities (and expansions at existing facilities) are proposed for the region, which would significantly reduce the region's capacity shortfall, as well as, perhaps, the fair share obligation of individual counties. However, until such facilities are actually approved and operating, they cannot be relied upon for planning purposes. • Several issues that are difficult to predict may affect the need to increase hazardous waste management capacity in the region. These include new restrictions on the land disposal of hazardous wastes, increased waste shipments from Mexico due to the North American Free Trade Agreement, and restrictions on the interstate transportation of hazardous waste. These findings reveal a consolidation in the waste management industry as smaller waste management facilities leave the business and larger, regional facilities, provide the bulk of the waste management capacity. It also underscores the need for regional cooperation in fostering the development of needed facilities and providing for an equitable distribution of new facilities. These issues are addressed in the policies and action plan of the Regional Hazardous Waste Management Plan. E. BACKGROUND ON THE TANNER PLANNING PROCESS In 11986, California enacted legislation providing the opportunity for each county, as well as four regions within the state, to prepare a comprehensive analysis of its hazardous waste management issues, problems, and needs. Assembly Bill 2948 (Tanner), recognized the need to minimize uncertainty and fear about what to do with hazardous wastes produced as byproducts of the production of goods and services upon which the region's quality of life has come to depend. Safe management is critical to protect public health, the environment, and also future economic growth. This legislation built upon the efforts and experience in Southern California since the beginning of the 1980s to work cooperatively in addressing regional hazardous waste management siting concerns. The need for the development of county and regional plans, to a large degree, was triggered by state and federal laws that mandated the phase-out of land disposal (i.e., disposal in landfills) of untreated hazardous Page 13-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Thirteen • Hazardous Waste Management wastes by the 1990s. Therefore, to rationally direct the development of new hazardous waste transfer stations, recycling and treatment facilities, or residual repositories as they become necessary for the region's hazardous wastes, each plan provides comprehensive siting criteria for modern hazardous waste management facilities, as well as policies and objectives to direct further planning for future hazardous waste management needs. F. HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATION IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA-1990 More than 20,000 separate businesses shipped more than 1 million tons of hazardous waste to be managed off-site in 1990. These shipments went to one of 1,400 facilities in and outside of the region. These facilities include transfer stations, recyclers, treatment facilities, and disposal sites. Waste oil was the single largest type of waste generated in the region, accounting for nearly 400,000 tons or about 44 percent of the total amount of waste generated (see Figure 13-1). Other "miscellaneous wastes" such as asbestos-containing wastes accounted for the second largest percentage (22 percent). Oily sludges and solvents were the next biggest categories (8 and 6 percent respectively). The 1990 data suggest an overall 20 percent increase in waste generation from 1986. However, much of this increase is due to contaminated soils attributable primarily to a large oil spill. Excluding the oil spill, a non- recurring waste in that it is not the result of an on-going economic activity, the growth is minimal, about 2 percent. Thus, the expected recurring waste stream changed only slightly in total tons during the four years. However, this small change overall masks significant changes in individual wastes streams. Waste oil increased by almost 60 percent alone. So striking a change may in large measure reflect an increase in the use of manifests for waste oil management, instead of actual growth in waste oil generation. As smaller generators are brought into the regulatory system and made aware of requirements for recycling and proper tracking of this waste stream, such an increase would be expected. Thus, much of the growth between 1986 and 1990 may represent growth in the use of registered waste haulers and recycling facilities for this waste. Setting these two waste streams (contaminated soil and waste oil) aside, the data suggest a decline in generation of wastes shipped off-site by some 20 percent. G. HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGEMENT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA-1990 The region's generators of hazardous waste shipped their wastes to more than 1,400 different waste management facilities in 1990. Some 138 of these facilities were located within the eight counties in Southern California, while the balance were located elsewhere in the state or in other states. Thirty-eight percent of waste generated in the region was managed in the region, 42 percent was managed in California but outside the region, and 38 percent was managed out of state (see Figure 13-2). It is important to note that much of the hazardous wastes generated in the region are shipped directly from a generator to a management facility for final disposition. (Management facilities are commonly referred to as "treatment, storage, disposal and recycling facilities" or TSDRs). Many wastes are sent first to transfer stations. Other wastes are "created" by TSDRs because they collect wastes (primarily waste oils and solvents) from small generators in a "milk-run" and become the generator of record under the state manifest SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 13-5 I � Chapter Thirteen •Hazardous Waste Management Figure 13-1 Generation of Hazardous Waste in Southern California in 1990 (for recurring wastes sent offsite) Non-Halogenated organic sludges & Solids Other 4% 18/0 _......... _ _=: Waste Oil ------...-_._.................................................... ----. ................................................................ ... ................................................................:........................ .. .. ..................................................................................... ...... _..._...... ............................................................... ......................... ._.._...._.. ..................................................................................... ......... Non-H I n - a o e at ----- ::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::..............::::::::::: :::.. e - : :.. g :.....,,,,»:: ::.: :......:::::::::::::::::::: :::::::::::::.::::::::::::::::::::::::: .. ...................::::::: ::::: ::::::::::::::::::::: :: :::::::::. :_. :::::::::::::::::::.:::::::::::: ::::: ::::::::::::......::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::.:::::. Solvents �- ;; : ; : :: 6 ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ......................................... .................................. .... . ................................................................ ................................................................................................................................. ................................................................................................................................ ........:......:...........::::.:.......: ... .:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::....::: ::::: :::::: ::: ::: _._...................................... .... ................................................. .... ..................... . ..........................................._..........._._._................._................ . __ ................................................. ::::::::::::::::::::::....................::::::::::.:::_........................_.._._...._... _ .-.................................. :-::::::::: -:::::::::: :: ::::...:...:.............. — .. .................. :.............:....................................................................... ............................--.-....................-................... .. .._ _�. _..................................................... _ ........................................................................... _ _ ....._....................................................... .._._ ............................... : _.- ::: ......: ..........:..................:.:................... ..........._.........:_..............:......................... ..� _ __ _. _. ..................................................................... __._. ......................,..............,.-...... __. .......................................m ��.� T._ ...................- ............. _.._..___.._ ....................---.................. ____--_ __ _ ��_- - _ _ _ ..................................... �. _ _ _ - __.. ................ _........._.... __... _.. _._.. : -.. _..__.__�. _ __.....___._.._ _.._.._.. ..__.�..._..... __----- Miscellaneous Waste '= - 22% -- Oily Sludges 8% December, 1993 • Page 13-6 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Thirteen • Hazardous Waste Management Figure 13-2 Location of Facilities Receiving Hazardous Waste from Region--1990 - = - - Out of State 0 .:: 0 0 __ - - - / h - -_- - - ort ern = _ - :............ ::::::::::::. Californi C3 _ - _ ; Within Region* c 38% * Includes San Diego and Santa Barbara Counties in addition to the SCAG Region SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 13-7 Chapter Thirteen • lyazardous Waste Management system. The waste generated in the region was managed in a variety of ways. Forty percent of the waste was recycled, 40 percent was managed in a landfill, while 3 percent was sent to a surface impoundment and 3 percent was treated in tanks. Other treatment methods, including incineration, neutralization, and injection wells were also used, but less frequently. H„ PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATION IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA The projections of future hazardous waste generation in this plan are based on employment projections as an indication of industrial activity and, hence, waste generation. Industry-specific projections, such as those based on individual Standard Industrial Codes, are not used because the information was not available on a sufficient proportion of the generators. Thus, for each county, the following formula is used to project hazardous waste generation in 2010. 1990 Generation X Projected Employment in 2010/ Actual Employment in 1990 This projection provides the most conservative (i.e., "worst case") scenario in that it assumes that the many efforts industries are making to reduce their hazardous waste generation will be unsuccessful (i.e., it assumes that the rate of hazardous waste generation per unit of industrial or commercial activity remains constant during the 20-year period). Two additional estimates or scenarios of future waste generation were generated by factoring in the potential success of waste reduction efforts by industry. Thus, the analysis evaluated various alternative scenarios of the effectiveness of current efforts by industries to reduce their generation of hazardous wastes. I. FUTURE HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGEMENT CAPACITY In comparing projected waste generation to current waste management capacity, the region appears to have adequate capacity for most types of recycling and treatment methods. However, shortfalls in capacity currently exist and will continue to exist in the area of oil recovery and incineration, regardless of whether businesses are able to reduce waste generation by 10 percent or 25 percent. For example, under the 10 percent waste reduction scenario, this analysis estimates that the region will have a capacity shortfall of 70,970 tons for wastes that are required by law to be incinerated. These wastes will have to be transported outside the region or outside the state for proper treatment. In addition, the region is projected to have a shortfall in residuals repository capacity by the year 2010, although the region's currently operating residual repository may expand capacity by then, and several current proposals exist for new residual repositories. This analysis also shows the distribution of capacity among the counties in Southern California and the current disparity in disposal capacity that exists. In several important waste disposal areas, some counties are providing the bulk of the hazardous waste capacity for the region. For example, Imperial County supplies most of the capacity for waste stabilization in the region. These differences in waste capacity among counties may, in fact, make environmental and economic sense for the region. It represents an increase in large regional facilities, which reduces the total number of facilities needed in the region and limits the Page 13-8 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Thirteen • Hazardous Waste Management environmental impacts of these facilities. However, such disparities raise questions regarding whether certain counties are providing their "fair share" of the region's waste management capacity. Several hazardous waste management facilities have been proposed for development in Southern California. These facilities, if approved, would provide considerable additional capacity for the region, particularly in the area of residuals repositories. However, the facility siting process is a long and arduous one, with no guarantee of success. While the proposed facilities may assist the region in meeting its capacity needs, additional regional cooperation and attention toward siting environmentally safe facilities may be necessary. J. REGIONAL HAZARDOUS WASTE POLICIES Several important regional policies arise from an analysis of waste generation in the region. The most critical are regional policies in the areas of waste reduction, fair share, and siting new facilities. 1 . FAIR SHARE The idea of fair share has been central to regional hazardous waste management planning since the inception of the Southern California Hazardous Waste Management Authority. Essentially, the fair share concepts asserts that every county in the region should accept responsibility for the management of hazardous wastes in the region in an amount proportional to the hazardous wastes generated within the city or county. The concept does not necessarily mean that each county must have facilities within its borders to manage all of the wastes it generates. The private market will likely direct facility development in certain areas. Furthermore, each jurisdiction may not generate enough of a specific type of waste to need an entire waste management facility for that waste. However, the fair share concept does require that counties that are "net exporters" of hazardous waste at least reach agreements with importing counties regarding intra-county waste disposal. For each waste treatment category in which there exists a shortage of capacity in the region, this plan uses a formula to determine each counties "fair share" responsibility for providing this needed capacity. Thus, this plan includes fair share "allocations" in the area of oil recovery, incineration, and residuals repositories, the three treatment categories in which regional shortages are projected. These allocations are summarized in Table 13-1. 2. SITING NEW FACILITIES Hazardous waste management, unlike municipal waste, is primarily a private-sector market. Waste produced by industry is collected, transported, stored, treated, and disposed of by private-sector entities. Thus, governmental action to promote or direct the siting of new facilities must recognize the market-driven nature of the hazardous waste management business. Despite the private nature of the hazardous waste business, regional governmental cooperation in siting new facilities is important. Such cooperation can help ensure that facility siting decisions are made in the most equitable, environmental, and economically responsible manner. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 13-9 Chapter Thirteen • Hazardous Waste Management I Table 13-1 COUNTY FAIR SHARE OBLIGATIONS TO MEET 2010 DEMAND FOR WASTE CAPACITY I Fair Share Obligation' (Tons per Year) Facility Implications' ge ion3 Oil Recovery 195,716 5.6 Incineration 63,873 1.0 Residual Repositories 389,229 1.0 Imperial Oil Recovery 1,957 0.1 Incineration 107 0.0 Residuals Repositories 750 0.0 Los Angeles Oil Recovery 0 0.0 Incineration 37,000 0.6 Residuals Repositories 222,362 1.5 Orate Oil Recovery 19,180 0.5 Incineration 6,242 0.1 Residuals Repositories 39,176 0.3 Riverside Oil Recovery 8,612 0.2 Incineration 5,869 0.1 Residuals Repositories 10,102 0.1 'The fair share obligation is equal to the county's share of the total waste capacity shortfall for the region in each treatment category. 2Facility implications given for"large"facilities(oil recovery--35,000 tons annual capacity;incineration--65,000 tons annual capacity; residuals repositories--150,000 tons annual capacity). 'Includes San Diego and Santa Barbara Counties in addition to the SCAG region. Page 13-10 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Thirteen • Hazardous Waste Management Table 13-1 (cont'd) COUNTY FAIR SHARE OBLIGATIONS TO MEET 2010 DEMAND FOR WASTE CAPACITY (CONT'D) Fair Share Obligation ('Pons per Year) Facility Implications San Bernardino Oil Recovery 84,158 2.4 Incineration 4,577 0.1 Residuals Repositories 61,065 0.4 San Die o I Oil Recovery 72,415 2.1 Incineration 5,868 0.1 Residuals Repositories 45,541 0.3 Santa Barbara Oil Recovery 3,914 0.1 Incineration 2,152 0.0 - Residuals Repositories 3,943 0.0 ' Ventura Oil Recovery 5,480 0.2 Incineration 2,152 0.0 Residuals Repositories 6,260 0.0 f I c SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 13-11 Chapter Thirteen • Hazardous Waste Management First, regional cooperation can help ensure that counties coordinate their approaches to siting criteria to avoid one county's policies from being significantly more restrictive than another county's policies, thereby leading to inequitable siting decisions. Second, through regional cooperation, general areas for facility development that meet regional needs can be identified. 3. WASTE REDUC#`TION Waste reduction goals and programs are included in each of the county plans. SCHWMA, as a regional agency, can play a positive role in implementing these plans. Regional activities will include: • Supporting strategies that give priority to waste reduction; • Assisting in information sharing, intergovernmental coordination, and public advocacy; • Developing a standard definition and reporting format for waste reduction in the region; • Monitoring county waste reduction efforts; and • Facilitating intergovernmental cooperation in waste reduction among local government, department of toxic substances control, special purpose agencies, and military institutions. K. INTEGRATION OF HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGEMENT WITH OTHER REGIONAL ISSUES The safe management of hazardous wastes in the region is linked with several other issues covered in the RCP. These links include: • Water Supply and Quality and Hazardous Waste Mana eg merit. The most direct link between this chapter and other sections of the RCP is in the area of water resources and water quality. Providing a safe system of hazardous waste management in the region reduces the likelihood of future groundwater and surface contamination through improper and/or illegal disposal of hazardous wastes. Such protection is critical to ensuring adequate long-term supplies of water to the region as local groundwater and surface water is projected to provide a significant portion of the potable water from the region. • Queen Space and :Hazardous Waste Management. The development of needed new facilities in the region will have :implications for open space planning in the region. In particular, the siting of new regional hazardous waste management facilities in the desert portions of the region will affect plans for open space preservation in those areas. • Economic Growth and Hazardous Waste Management. Providing adequate hazardous waste management facilities in the region can reduce waste management and waste transportation costs for area businesses, thereby reducing operating costs. • Transportation and Hazardous Waste Management. Hazardous waste management is related to transportation is several ways. First, the lack of waste management capacity for some waste categories results in the transportation of hazardous wastes long distances, thereby increasing the risks Page 13-12 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan 0 Chapter Thirteen • Hazardous Waste Mana ement . 9 associated with such transportation as well as the potential liability of waste generators. The development of needed capacity as described in this chapter will reduce such transportation. Second, the transportation sector is itself a major generator of hazardous wastes. In particular, the generation of used oil, including used motor oils, is directly attributable to transportation. Increases in transportation in the region will increase the generation of used oils which already suffers from a lack of adequate recycling capacity. • Air Quality and Hazardous Waste Management. There are air quality implications associated with many waste management technologies. In particular, the need for incineration capacity in the region raises air quality issues because of the emissions associated with this technology. E _ SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 13-13 Ch p � c� r� INTEGRATED SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT • Introduction • Purpose of the Integrated Solid Waste Component • Existing Goals and Ojectives for Solid Waste Management Under State Law • The AB 939 Planning Process • Subregional Solid Waste Planning • Waste Generation, Disposal, and Capacity in the SCAG Region • Regional Solid Waste Issues • Integration of Solid Waste With Other Regional Issues r A. INTRODUCTION The average Southern Californian generates more than eight pounds of garbage each day.' This is equivalent to more than 22 million tons per year for the entire region. What to do with this enormous amount of waste—where to dispose of it and how to reduce the amount we produce—is an issue of great importance to Southern Californians and to local governments. e While some of the waste generated in the SCAG region is recycled or reused, most of it is sent to one of several landfills. The continuing reliance on landfills to dispose of the region's waste presents several problems. Many landfills in the region are running out of capacity while environmental concerns and 'California Integrated Waste Management Board, CIWMB Interim Database Project based on 1990 date. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 14-1 Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management community opposition make building new landfills or expanding existing landfills increasingly difficult. The "Not-In-My-Backyard" (NIMBY) syndrome, so often referred to in the media, has effectively blocked or stalled the region's expansion of landfills. At the same time, dwindling landfill capacity has forced both the region and the state to make concerted efforts at reducing the amount of waste being produced while increasing the amount that is recycled or reused. While the lack of landfills creates a short-term crisis and has sparked both media and political attention, the creation of new landfill or other disposal capacity will not necessarily reduce the need to reduce, reuse, and recycle the region's wastes. A growing awareness exists among environmental organizations and the public at-large that the region's history of using and disposing of its natural resources has other environmental implications. Waste sent to landfills represents raw materials that can no longer be used. Waste generated and not recycled or reused increases the region's continuing reliance on the use of virgin materials, such as timber and metals, and continues the environmental effects of producing or extracting these virgin materials. In 1989, the California Legislature passed Assembly Bill 939, a far-reaching attempt to address the solid waste issue. AB 939 requires local governments to reduce the amount of solid waste generated in their jurisdictions and disposed of in a landfill or other means by 25 percent by 1995 and by 50 percent by the year 2000. Thus, the pressure is on local governments—which have historically had primary responsibility for waste collection and management—to swiftly implement effective programs and policies to divert waste away from landfills. At the same time, such programs can cost significant public resources and affect the region's competitive position. While much of this responsibility has been vested with local governments, it will require concerted effort among all levels of government and the private sector to meet these goals in an economically efficient fashion. This chapter addresses some of the issues associated with meeting these and other solid waste management goals in Southern California. B., PURPOSE OF THE INTEGRATED SOLID WASTE COMPONENT AB 939 requires local governments to prepare comprehensive integrated waste management plans that demonstrate how the 25 and 50 percent reductions will be met. There is no similar requirement to prepare regional plans and this chapter does not attempt to reconstruct the AB 939 plans on a regional level. Instead, this chapter has more modest goals intended to initiate a regional dialogue on solid waste issues. To that end, this chapter's purpose is to: • Describe the integrated solid waste management planning process in Southern California. 0 Describe issues associated with current and future waste generation and solid waste landfill capacity in the region. • Identify potential regional strategies and actions for improving the region's solid waste management system. • Integrate the issue of solid waste with other regional issues. This chapter does not provide a comprehensive analysis or plan for managing the region's solid waste. Such an effort was beyond the scope and resources available. The chapter does, however, identify areas where Page 14-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management - additional regional analysis and cooperation may be beneficial and provides a first step toward these efforts. Additionally, the recommendations in this chapter do not create new legal mandates for local governments or other regional governmental agencies. C. EXISTING GOALS AND OBJECTIVES FOR SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT UNDER EXISTING STATE LAW The existing solid waste goals for the SCAG region are articulated in the state law (Cal. Pub. Res. Code, § 40000 et seq.) that governs solid waste management. These goals form the basis for solid waste planning at the city and county level and can be summarized as follows: • Promote the following waste management practices in order of priority: 1. Waste Prevention. 2. Recycling and Composting. 3. Safe Disposal or Transformation.' • Minimize unnecessary duplication of effort in solid waste programs carried out by local governments.' The regional objectives for solid waste are also identified in the state solid waste law and include the following: r • Divert at least 25 percent of all waste from landfills by the year 1995 and divert at least 50 percent by the year 2000.` • Ensure that there is adequate, environmentally safe disposal capacity for the remaining wastes. These goals and objectives provide the basis for developing policies and programs at the local level and for undertaking regional cooperative efforts to more efficiently and effectively reduce, recycle, and manage solid waste. It should be noted that some local jurisdictions, such as the City of Los Angeles, have adopted more ambitious goals for waste diversion then those articulated in the state law. 2C81. Pub. Res. Code, §40051(a). 3Cal. Pub. Res. Code, §40001(b). `Cal. Pub. Res. Code, §41780. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 14-3 Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management D. THE AB 939 PLANNING PROCESS One. of the fundamental objectives of SCAG's RCP is to describe in one document the various planning obligations imposed on local governments. In the area of solid waste, the planning requirements under AB 939 constitute a significant and comprehensive effort to plan for future solid waste needs. This section provides a brief overview of the AB 939 planning process. AB 939 dramatically changed the approach to solid waste management in California, as well as the process for solid waste planning at the local level. It is this law, and subsequent amendments, that establishes the frarnework for solid waste planning and solid waste management in the State. Perhaps the most important aspect of AB 939 is a shift in state and local policy from solid waste disposal to "integrated waste management." The integrated waste management approach creates new priorities for addressing the waste issue and shifts the emphasis away from land disposal. Thus, the law's intent is to create programs and policies at the local level that promote the reduction in waste generation first, the beneficial reuse of waste through recycling and composting second, and lastly the disposal of waste in either landfills or waste-to-energy facilities. To make these theoretical priorities a reality, the law sets ambitious legal goals for local governments to meet in reducing the amount of solid waste sent to disposal facilities (e.g., landfills, waste-to-energy facilities). By 1995, each city and every unincorporated county area must divert 25 percent of all solid waste away from disposal facilities. By the year 2000, 50 percent must be diverted. AB 939 also established a significant solid waste planning process at the city and county level. To demonstrate how the diversion targets will be met, each county and city is required to develop detailed plans outlining the jurisdiction's current or planned policies and programs for promoting source reduction, recycling, composting and other activities and how these activities will result in 25 and 50 percent reductions in solid waste disposal. 1 . PLANNING ELEMENTS UNDER AB 939 Prior to initiation of the planning process, each county must first form a Local Task Force (LTF). The composition of this task force is determined by the board of supervisors and a majority of the cities within the county and will usually contain members from the solid waste industry, environmental groups, the public, and government agencies. The purpose of the LTF is to identify countywide and regional concerns, determine the neeads for new facilities, develop goals and policies, and provide for regional coordination. In addition the LTF has responsibility for reviewing the various plan elements developed by each of the cities in the county. AB 939 requires cities and counties to prepare four major planning documents or elements.' Eventually, all of the elements prepared by each of the cities within a county, and the elements prepared by the county, are combined into one document, referred to as a Countywide Integrated Waste Management Plan (see Figure 14- 'The procedures for preparing the various elements of an Integrated Waste Management Plan are included in Division 30,Part 2 of the California Public Resources Code and in Title 14, Chapter 9 of the California Code of Regulations. Page 14-4 • Decem,ber 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management 1). These elements include the following: • A Source Reduction and Recycling Element (SRRE), which is prepared by each city for its jurisdiction and by the county for unincorporated areas. The SRRE is essentially the jurisdiction's plan for meeting the diversion goals. Thus, the plan requires a detailed inventory of current waste generation and diversion and then an identification of the specific policies and procedures for increasing the current diversion rate to 25 percent by 1995 and by 50 percent by the year 2000. The city and county SRREs were to be prepared by July 1, 1992. Almost all of the jurisdictions in the SCAG region have prepared a draft SRRE. Each SRRE must include the following: a Waste Characterization Study; a Source Reduction Component; a Recycling Component; a Composting Component; a Special Waste Component; an Education and Public Information Component; a Funding Component; and a Facility Capacity Component. • A Household Hazardous Waste Element (HHWE), which is prepared by each city for its jurisdiction and by the county for unincorporated areas. Counties and cities must also prepare a separate element addressing household hazardous waste. In the original AB 939 legislation, household hazardous waste was included as one component in the SRRE. Subsequent legislation required local governments to develop a separate element for household hazardous waste, although the law requires the element to be submitted at the same time as the SRRE. Household hazardous wastes include a host of commonly used consumer products, including many paints, aerosols, home pesticides, batteries, and used motor oil. In the past, these products have been found to contribute significantly to the contamination of water and soils in and around landfills. In the household hazardous waste element, each jurisdiction must identify the types and quantities of these wastes that are source reduced, collected, recycled, treated, and disposed of through existing programs. The state has established categories for household hazardous waste types that must be used in identifying these wastes. Each jurisdiction must also identify various program alternatives for reducing the amount of household hazardous wastes being disposed of. The regulations require that local governments evaluate such options as providing collection services for household hazardous wastes, establishing monitoring programs at disposal sites to reduce the amount of household hazardous wastes being F disposed, implementing recycling programs, and initiating public information campaigns. Each element must include an identification of the selected program alternatives for addressing household hazardous waste, as well as information on program implementation and program monitoring and evaluation. • A Siting Element, which is prepared by the county. The siting element must provide a description of the areas in the County to be used for the development of adequate disposal or transformation capacity. The development of additional capacity must be shown to be consistent with the city source t reduction and recycling elements within the county as well as the county source reduction and recycling element. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 0 Page 14-5 i Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management Figure 14-1 Elements of Countywide Integrated Waste Management Plans Countywide Integrated Waste Management Plans Cities Pm afire Counties Prepare • Source Reduction and Recycling • Source Reduction and Recycling Elements Elements (for unincorporated areas) • Household Hazardous Waste Elements • Household Hazardous Waste Elements • Non-Disposal Facility (for unincorporated areas) Elements • Non-Disposal Facility Elements (for unincorporated areas) • Siting Elements (for all of county) Page 14-6 • Decembea; 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management The countywide siting element must contain estimates of total waste that will need to be disposed over a 15 year period as well as the remaining disposal capacity throughout the county. If these estimates reveal that current capacity will be exhausted within 15 years, the law requires cities and counties to identify areas for the location of new facilities or expansions of existing facilities. Any such areas identified must be consistent with applicable county or city general plans. If counties are unable to identify areas for new disposal capacity that are consistent with the general plan requirements of the cities and counties, then the siting element must contain a specific strategy for how excess capacity will be dealt with. • A Non-disposal Facility Element, which is prepared by the city and the county. In 1992, the state legislature amended the solid waste laws and required local governments to develop an additional element called a "non-disposal facility" element. The intent of the non-disposal facility element is to provide a separate and distinct plan for the development of the various facilities necessary to meet the recycling goals specified in each jurisdiction's source reduction and recycling element. Thus, non- disposal facilities include material recovery facilities and other waste recycling and reuse facilities. Each county is required to compile each of the elements developed by the county and the cities in the county into a Countywide Integrated Waste Management Plan (CIWMP). The CIWMP contains the following: all city source reduction and recycling elements; the county source reduction and recycling element; the city household hazardous waste elements; the county household hazardous waste element; the countywide siting element; the city non-disposal facility element; and the county non-disposal facility element. The CIWMP provides the comprehensive plan for each county to meet the goals under the state law. E. SUBREGIONAL SOLID WASTE PLANNING r In addition to city and county solid waste planning required under AB 939, various subregions within the SCAG region have also developed solid waste plans. The Coachella Valley Association of Governments, for example, was the lead agency in preparing the AB 939 plans for its member agencies. By combining efforts, resources were conserved in the subregion and overlaps in policies and programs were reduced. For the RCP, two subregions specifically addressed solid waste issues in their subregional plans. Many other subregions contributed comments on solid waste aspects in the RCP. The subregions addressing solid waste issues in their subregional plans include the Western Riverside Council of Governments and the San Gabriel 1 Valley Association of Cities.' These subregional plans are summarized below and are included in an appendix to the RCP. Western Riverside Council of Governments. As part of its draft subregional plan, the Western Riverside Council of Governments (WRCOG) prepared a separate Solid Waste Subregional Element.' This element establishes a Western Riverside County cooperative plan of action for integrated solid waste management. It is intended to provide information and alternatives to members of Western Riverside Council of Governments r 'in addition, the South Bay Cities Association will include a section on integrated solid waste in its final input to the RCP. 7See Western Riverside Council of Governments, Western Riverside County Subrepional Comprehensive Plan, Draft Discussion Document. September 10, 1993. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 14-7 L �rrrwrrrrr.—� Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management regarding a joint effort to implement state-mandated diversion goals. The overall goals of the element are to do the following: • Provide for an integrated system that will meet the projected population growth needs for solid waste reduction, collection, recycling, processing, and disposal. The element establishes 19 additional goals and objectives for meeting the overall goal and implementation actions for meeting these goals and objectives. These goals and objectives establish a comprehensive program for WRCOG to assist its member agencies in meeting their own solid waste program goals and objectives under AB 939. San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities. As part of its subregional plan, the San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities prepared a Solid Waste Management Report! This report assesses the current status of waste diversion, waste capacity, and waste management costs in the San Gabriel Valley. The report also evaluates future waste diversion and capacity in the Valley. The potential for landfill expansion and waste-by-rail is evaluated in a series of potential "disposal capacity scenarios." These scenarios are based of different assumptions as to the future capacity of regional landfills. The report also evaluates future waste management costs in the subregion. F. WASTE GENERATION, DISPOSAL, AND CAPACITY IN THE SCAG REGION This section examines information on the amount of waste generated in the region, the amount recycled and reused, and the amount of waste disposed of in landfills. In addition, current information on the available capacity of landfills in the: region is presented. Several sources of data exist on waste generation, diversion, and capacity. For the purposes of this chapter, information from the waste generation studies conducted by cities and counties for their Source Reduction and Recycling Element on 1990 waste generation was used. This information was submitted to the California Integrated Waste Management Board and included in a CIWMB Interim Database Project. It should be recognized that changes may have occurred to these waste generation numbers since 1990. In particular, as jurisdictions have begun implementation of their SRREs, diversion rates can be expected to increase. Nonetheless these numbers are the best available, consistent regional information and provide a valuable assessment of the composition of the waste stream and the areas in which diversion appears to be working most effectively and where it is proving most difficult. 1 . WASTE GENERATION IN THE SCAG REGION A total of 22 million tons of solid waste was generated in the SCAG region in 1990. This is equivalent to over eight pounds of waste per day per Southern Californian. The SCAG region was responsible for approximately half of all the waste in California. Figure 14-2 shows the total amount of waste disposal in the "Appendix A of the San Gabriel Valley Subregional Plan,prepared for the San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities by Earth Technology Corporation, August 25, 1993. Page 14-8 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management region broken down by each of the six counties. Los Angeles County accounted for more than half of all the waste generated in the region (12.4 million tons) followed by Orange County (4.4 million tons), Riverside County (2 million tons), San Bernardino County (1.6 million tons), Ventura County (1.1 million tons) and Imperial County (475,935 tons). Figure 14-3 shows the types of waste generated in California. Paper-- including cardboard, mixed paper, newspaper, and other types--constitutes the largest portion of the waste stream (33 percent). Other types of organic wastes, including food wastes, tires, wood wastes, and crop residuals makes up 25 percent of the waste stream. Other major waste types include yard wastes (14 percent), plastics (6 percent), metals (5 percent), and glass (5 percent). An additional category, "other wastes" which includes among other items inert solids, constituted 12 percent. These percentages are roughly similar to the composition of the waste stream for the entire state. 2. WASTE DISPOSAL AND DIVERSION IN THE SCAG REGION As reported in city and county SRREs, a total of 2,844,452 tons of waste was diverted away from landfills or other disposal facilities and recycled, composted, or reused in some other fashion in 1990. This is approximately 12 percent of the total waste generated. This figure does not include the diversion of certain waste types, including manure, crop residues, and white goods (e.g., air conditioners, refrigerators). By far the largest percentage of the waste currently being diverted is paper (see Figures 14-4, 14-5, and 14- 6). Sixty percent of the diverted waste is paper, followed by other organic wastes (18 percent), yard wastes (8.5 percent), and glass (7.5 percent). Other categories of waste each constitute less than five percent of the diverted waste. Again, it should be noted that as jurisdictions have begun to implement integrated waste management programs under state law, the amount of diversion in the region should be expected to increase. As it becomes available, more recent data on the region's progress in waste diversion, and the types of waste that are being diverted, will be collected and disseminated through the RCP process. 3. LANDFILL CAPACITY IN THE SCAG REGION A crucial issue facing parts of the SCAG region is whether adequate capacity exists to manage the region's solid waste. It was the widespread perception that California was running out of landfill space that led to the passage of AB 939. In addition, many jurisdictions have been unable to site new landfills or expand existing ones due to fierce community opposition and protracted permitting processes. This diminishing capacity is exacerbated by a growing population that produces more waste than in the past. Estimating the remaining capacity of landfills is very difficult due to several factors, including the follwoing: • Accurately assessing the import and export of wastes across county boundaries. • Assessing changes in future waste generation and diversion. • Potential expansions to existing landfill capacity. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 14-9 Chapter Fourteen •Integrated Solid Waste Management Figure 14-2 Solid Waste Generated in SCAG Region By County-1990 (In Tons) Los Angeles 12,373,015 ^....^._:.....w_�.r�_ .,.�._...„^.: i�iiiiiiiiiiiii !!!Sw •• ... e ::::: .......................:.......... . ...... . Im erial 475,935 - - _ _ - .. Ventura Ventu 1,095,159 -- - - -= Riverside 2 029 795 _ > Orange 4,439,467 San Bernardino 1,613,475 Total Generation = 221 026,848 Source: California Integrated Waste Management Board Page 14-10 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management Figure 14-3 Solid Waste Generation in the SCAG Region- 1990 Paper 33% Plastic 6% Special Wastes 1% -Glass 4 to _.._.............:....... _....__..__............. --- -: . . . __ . . . ........__....... .......... .. .. .................. .. . . . . ................. =Metals o ............_..._....._......_....... .. .:: .......................... . L Yard Waste ;::: Other 14 =�= _=-::. Waste ...................................... - = 0 ................................... ................................. ............................. ..................... .. :.................. - .µ•Vi•=•E�~�' �_�.�'� ^c=cw^ »aiic»»-»:•i•.:..r. »»»ec»EF-E ii_Er,`.=;FiiSEE Other Organic 25% Total Generation - 22,026,848 Tons Source: California Integrated Waste Management Board. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 14-11 Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Sold Waste Management Figure 14-4 Solid Waste Diversion in the SCAG Region-1990 Paper 60% Special Wastes ................ __._�•• _._:._.. _• .. Other Plastic 2% - Waste 0.5% ............................. Glass 7.5% other Organic 18% Metals 4"' Yard Waste 8.5 % Total Diversion - 2,844,452 Tons Note: These figures do not include the diversion of the following types of waste: Inert solids,scrap metal, agricultural wastes,white goods. Source: California Integrated Waste Management Board. Figure 14-5 Solid Waste Disposal in the SCAG Region-1990 Paper 29% Special Wastes 1% Plastic 7% - -........_ Other Waste _._.W ....-.._..__. 13.5% Glass 3.5% --- .. _....__...::::::•msµ:: ::-::--: :_: 'µ :: _ ...................... ........._._..._......._._......._.__ ..._ ms ................... N!, Metals 5.5% ::::-::::::::::�::::::::::::::::::::::�:::::::::::::::::::•:�::::: ,.;�_.;.,..�......._.._... ..._...._........._....... .................................................................. .:.emu::�::.:��.�.�:m�:::•�-:_.�•;:�:::�::. i'- •.�: . :.._........_....._.. = =�€ ........................................................ .................................... ._ ._ ,.._ u .._µ •::_ :::: Other Organic . != . Yard Waste 14.5% -- 26% •::::-::::::::::::::::u::... Total Disposal - 19,182,396Tons Source: California Integrated Waste Management Board. December, 1993 • Page 14-12 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Q Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management Figure 14-6 Tons of Solid Waste Diverted and Disposed by Category in the SCAG Region-1990 Special Wastes Other Waste ........................................................ ..............._ ................................................................................... ... .. ......................_....._.. ................................................... ............. . _._...._ ......................................................................... _._._ ........ .................._.__.... Other Organic ....._._... _ __ _. _......._.. _ _ ........ . .......... .................................................................................. Yard Waste Legend Disposed Diverted Metals Glass - Plastic .....:_W ::- Paper _° = - - -_ -- _ 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Millions of tons SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 14-13 L Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management • Locally imposed restrictions that may modify the actual capacity of a landfill. This chapter does not include a new evaluation of landfill capacity in the region. Counties were required under Section 18777 of the California Code of Regulations, pursuant to AB 939, to submit data on landfill capacity to CIWMB. CIWMB summarized these data in an April 1992 report. Information on capacity presented here is taken from that report. The methodology used by each jurisdiction varied according to local conditions. As counties begin preparing siting elements, additional assessments of capacity, as well as county, subregional, and regional plans for ensuring adequate future capacity, will be prepared. Landfill capacity can be described in one of two ways. It can be expressed in terms of the total amount of waste authorized to be disposed of in landfills as indicated by landfill permits. Or it can be expressed in terms of the number of years remaining before this available permitted capacity is used up. As reported by the county local task forces, the SCAG region had a total of 339.2 million tons or 579.9 million cubic yards of permitted landfill capacity in 1990. Figure 14-7 shows how this landfill capacity is allocated among the counties in the region. Orange County has the most available capacity (122.5 million tons), followed by Los Angeles County (100 million tons), Riverside County (74.8 million tons), San Bernardino County (23.4 million tons), Ventura County (14 million tons) and Imperial County (4.5 million tons). The most straightforward approach to estimating the number of years of remaining landfill capacity is to divide the total available capacity in a region or county by the total amount of waste disposed of each year in the region or county. For several reasons, however, this approach may not accurately reflect actual remaining landfill capacity. Waste disposal can not be expected to remain constant over time due to growth or the initiation of new source reduction and recycling programs. Therefore, current waste disposal information can not always be used to project future waste disposal needs. In addition, a jurisdiction's permitted capacity may riot be an entirely accurate reflection of the amount of landfill space that can be used in the future. For example, some jurisdiction's have locally imposed restrictions on landfills that do not allow a landfill to reach ;its permitted capacity. For the data presented here, each county's local task force used its own methodology to estimate the number of years of remaining capacity. Therefore, the estimates reflect the local conditions in each county. Los Angeles County reports the most serious shortfall in landfill capacity. The County estimates that remaining capacity will be exhausted in five years or less (see Figure 14-8). San Bernardino and Ventura counties both estimate more than five but less than 15 years of remaining capacity. Orange County, Riverside County, and Imperial County all have more than 15 years capacity. Again, these estimates are essentially snapshots of 1990 capacity conducted individually by each county. Such capacity estimates are changing rapidly with closures and approved expansions of facilities and intercounty agreements to share landfill capacity. Page 14-14 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan dft Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management Figure 14-7 Permitted Waste Capacity in SCAG Region by County-1990 (In Tons) 120,000,000 :W€€::122 SOO,Ooo:: 100,000,000 ,00,aoo,000 €€ R' 80,000,000 - co 4AM000 _ _ _ O 60,000,000 : _ .= »µ•. -:.. :::::::::'::::::.::::::::::::�::::::::::::::::::::.��••'�5.:c.W�•'=r=_iii_ .. ................................_._... .y•: .... .. .. ....................._...:-- ::::::....:..............................::::::::.....iiiii:i iiiiiii ....»..»»».^:• .................................................................................._.._........_.. 40,000,000 - .... ...................................._............ 3100 000 20,000,000 .:: .. :»::::......... ... .._........._. ......... . _»............................_._..... ...............,{,...... -- iiiiiiPiiiiFiiiii'rii22'iiiiiii ":• :::::::::::::::EEE:i:iEEEEEEE:i. :»:ii:i:ciii:iiiiiiiiieceiiiiiiii - ............. _•'µ».... 0 Los Angeles Orange San Bernardino Riverside Ventura Imperial Source: California Integrated Waste Management Board SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December, 1993 • Page 14-15 Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management Figure 14-8 Years of Remaihing Permitted Landfill Capacity-By County 1990 an ernardn ::. en :_; : ......:::::::::::::::::::::::::::... .: Riverside County - < 5 years Orange County 9-15 Years Q Impanel! County .:........... :....: ....:..::.. > 15 Years Source:California Integrated'Waste Management Board Page 14-16 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management 4. PLANNED DEVELOPMENT OF NEW LANDFILL CAPACITY In response to the potential shortfall in future landfill capacity in parts of the region, several proposals for new landfills or expanded landfills are being offered. The most regionally significant of the proposals are those that propose to site very large landfills in remote desert areas and use rail lines to transport waste from urban areas to the desert sites. The proposals, known as "waste-by-rail" facilities, were identified as a feasible waste disposal alternative in a 1988 report prepared by SCAG at the request of the San GabrielValley Association of Cities.' Since then, several proposals have been offered to site and build landfills in various desert sites and to develop the necessary material recovery facilities, transfer stations, and rail lines to serve these landfills. The proposed waste-by-rail initiatives currently include the Eagle Mountain project in Riverside County, the Rail-Cycle project in San Bernardino County, the InteRail and Chamber Development projects in Imperial County, the Campo project on the Campo Indian Reservation within San Diego County, and the East Carbon Project in East Carbon, Utah. Figure 14-9 shows the proposed location and rail right-of-way for each of these projects. r a. Eagle Mountain Project The Eagle Mountain Project is being developed by the Mine Reclamation Corporation. The proposal calls for a Class III landfill to be developed in an unused iron ore open pit mine at Eagle Mountain in northeastern Riverside County. At peak operations, the landfill would receive up to 20,000 tons per day (tpd): 18,000 tpd by rail and 2,000 tpd by truck. In October of 1992, the Riverside County Board of Supervisors approved the environmental documentation for the project and granted a conditional use permit. However, a coalition of environmental groups, local citizens and others filed suit over the adequacy of the Environmental Impact Report. In addition, state and federal approval will be required before actual construction can begin. b. Rail Cycle Project The Rail Cycle project is a joint venture between Waste Management, Inc., a large waste services firm, and the Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railway Company. The proposal calls for a landfill ` with 200,000,000 ton capacity over 100 years to be built in Amboy, California in Eastern San Bernardino County. Material recovery facilities would be built in the cities of Commerce, El Segundo and in San Gabriel Valley. A draft EIR was issued for the landfill project in November 1992. The City of Commerce has approved construction of a materials recovery and rail loading facility, however construction on the facility will not begin until the landfill is approved. g 'Southern California Association of Governments. The Feasibility of Hauling Solid Waste by Railroad from the San Gabriel Valley to Remote Disposal Sites. April 1988. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 14-17 Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management Figure 149 Proposed Waste-By-Rail Projects in SCAG Region Nevada California Utah .�.,woo"..1 EAST,,----"6 CARBON i •1 Arizona 1 RAIL-CYCLE WASTE-MANAGEMENT 1 �-•.` EAGLE-MOUNTAIN CHAMBERS N CAMPO_' INTERAIL Page 14-18 • December, 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management C. California InteRail Project The California InteRail Project is one of two proposed projects in Imperial County. The project calls for a regional landfill to be built in Glamis, near Brawley in Central Imperial County. The landfill, which would be located on existing mining lands, would have maximum capacity to handle 20,000 tons daily. The project, which is a joint venture involving the Gold Fields Mining Co., Western Waste Industries, and SP Environmental Systems, Inc., plans to utilize both new and existing material transfer and loading facilities. d. Other Projects Additional proposed waste-by-rail projects include the Chambers Development Project, which includes a regional landfill located near Niland in Imperial County, the Campo Solid Waste Management Project, which includes a proposal for a landfill on the Campo Indian Reservation located within San Diego County, and the East Carbon Project, a fully permitted landfill near the town of East Carbon in Utah. The East Carbon site, which is approximately 800 miles from Los Angeles, has already accepted a trial waste shipment from the Los Angeles County Sanitation District. These proposed projects raise several important regional questions: • How many waste-by-rail facilities can the region support? • What will the impact of waste-by-rail be on local efforts at waste prevention and recycling? • How will waste-by-rail affect waste management costs in the region? • What will the impact be on the regional transportation system? • What are the air quality implications of waste-by-rail? • How will waste-by-rail facilities interact with emerging waste management technologies (e.g., gasification)? • What are the implications of interstate restrictions on waste imports and exports? One of the recommendations in this chapter is to begin the regional dialogue necessary to answer these and other questions. G. REGIONAL SOLID WASTE ISSUES For the SCAG region to meet the ambitious goals for solid waste diversion required under AB 939 and to provide safe, economical, and equitable disposal facilities, several policy issues may need to be addressed. This section raises several of the key issues in meeting the region's solid waste goals. From this section, it becomes clear that coordinated action among local, state, federal, and private sector participants will be necessary to meet the significant challenges posed by solid waste. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 14-19 Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management 1 . DEVELOPING RECYCLING INDUSTRIES AND SELF-SUSTAINING MARKETS FOR RECYCLED MATERIALS Recycling is and will continue to be a key factor in diverting solid waste away from land disposal. The crucial issue the region must address before high rates of recycling can be achieved is whether it can foster viable, self-sustaining markets for a broad range of materials. Creating recycling markets is a chicken and egg problem. A need exists to create an increased demand for products made from recycled materials to support the development of recycling industries. At the same time, fullly capitalized recycling industries need to be developed to accept recycled materials as feedstocks and to produce recycled products. Both the supply and demand issues need to be addressed simultaneously. Governments at the local, state, and federal level can play a positive role in creating these markets. In fact, recycling-based manufacturing represents a new, environmentally responsible industry in which the Southern California region has the opportunity to be a nationwide leader. A key element of any viable markets is, of course, having customers willing to purchase products or services at a price that will sustain the operation of a business. For recycled products, in many areas and for many types of materials, there is currently insufficient demand to sustain recycling businesses. This is changing, of course, as more consumers are actively seeking recycled products and are willing to pay slightly higher prices for such products, and as recycling technologies advance, thereby lowering the costs of production and product prices. Nonetheless, the lack of demand may threaten the creation of a robust recycling industry in Southern California. Direct governmental action to create markets for specific products certainly is not without real problems. Governments are often not in the best positions to determine which products should be promoted or the most effective way of increasing consumer demand. Nonetheless, there are actions that can be undertaken by federal, state, regional, and local governments that will foster the markets necessary for the region to meet the diversion requirements under the law and can help promote industries that will provide for real economic development. Such actions include adopting procurement policies that favor recycled products and therefore increase demand; creating economic incentives for new recycling businesses; promoting the infrastructure necessary for a regional recycling industry. Recommended Strategies • Regional information on the location and capacity of recycling facilities and data on material diversion in various subregions should be collected and disseminated to foster market development. • Federal, state, and local procurement policies that favor recycled products should be encouraged. Information on such programs should be collected and distributed to local governments in the region. 2. Encouraging a Reduction in Overlap in Waste Prevention Public Awareness Campaigns Through concerted public and private outreach efforts, considerable progress has been made in educating households and businesses about recycling. However, while recycling has been incorporated in the daily Page 14-20 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management routine of many Southern Californian's, waste prevention (often refered to as ' �urce reduction") still lags behind. Thus, significant efforts will be necessary to educate the public about, me necessity and the means of reducing the amount of waste they generate. In many ways, waste prevention outreach, as opposed to recycling outreach, lends itself to broader—either state or regional--campaigns. To be most effective, recycling education must often be tied to the specific recycling programs in a local community. Waste prevention, on the other hand, embodies more universal concepts that are essentially the same from locality to locality. The AB 939 planning process fosters the development of numerous waste prevention campaigns in each locality, both by placing waste prevention on the top of the waste management hierarchy and by requiring localities to develop specific public outreach components in their plans. While these local efforts are important, considerable public resources may be saved by supplementing local efforts with state or regionwide campaigns. The state Legislature recognized the need for broader public outreach efforts in this area and in 1992 passed a law requiring the California Integrated Waste Management Board to develop a comprehensive outreach program.10 This public campaign and additional state and regional public information efforts will be critical in changing fundamental waste generation habits among Southern Californians. In addition, such campaigns will provide for the most effective use of public resources by reducing unnecessary duplication of efforts. Recommended Strategies: • Encourage the continued development of a statewide waste prevention public awareness campaign that reduces unnecessary overlap and expenditures at the local level. 3. ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF INCREASED WASTE MANAGEMENT COSTS The decreasing amount of landfill capacity combined with additional waste recycling requirements is increasing, and will continue to increase, the solid waste disposal costs to businesses in Southern California. Increased operating costs, particularly if they differ from those costs in other regions in the United States or from other countries will give the region a competitive disadvantage in attracting and retaining businesses. Given the current state of the regional economy, any differential cost in doing business in the region should be examined closely. The solid waste analysis prepared by the San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities as part of their subregional plan examined potential solid waste disposal cost increases in their subregion. Current Los Angeles County Sanitation District (LACSD) tipping fees (i.e., cost of disposal in a landfill) range from approximately $16 to $24 per ton. LACSD estimates that waste-by-rail tipping fees will likely range from $50 to $55 per ton. 1OThe law (AB 2494, amending Section 42600 of the Public Resources Code) requires the Board to establish a statewide public information and education program that, at a minimum: encourages business and industry to reduce excess packaging; encourages consumers to reduce waste generation and increase recycling;encourage local government procurement of recycled products,encourage business,industrial,and residential consumers to purchase recycled products;provide information to cities,counties,and regional agencies on these outreach efforts and develop cooperative strategies to reduce costs,and develop and disseminate model outreach materials to local governments. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 14-21 1 Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management Additionally, tipping fees at current landfills may rise approximately 25 percent in an effort to "levelize" tipping fees with the waste-by-rail alternative. Thus, the potential cost impacts on the San Gabriel Valley will vary depending on the use of waste-by-rail. For local businesses, this increase will be felt most significantly by businesses in which waste prevention and recycling is most difficult. In addition to the costs of tipping fees, the additional costs (both public and private) of the full range of integrated waste management activities need to be evaluated in the region. This includes the costs of various types of recycling programs, transportation systems, transfer facility operations, and land disposal costs. Such an analysis would provide a more accurate reflection of the true costs of waste management in the region, now and in the future. Recommended Strategies • undertake regional study of current and potential future solid waste management costs in the region and options for reducing the impact of increased costs on area businesses. 4. PROMOTING NEW TECHNOLOGIES The: development of new waste technologies will be essential to the success of the region in meeting its waste management goals. Promoting these new technologies will offer dual benefits to the region. First, it will assist the region in meeting its goals for solid waste reduction and recycling. Second, these technologies may represent new industries, providing products and services that can be exported to other areas. Such technologies include new and more efficient product packaging, advanced materials recovery facilities and equipment, more efficient recycling technologies. In addition, new waste management technologies are developing that may offer environmentally safer disposal options. These include gasification technologies, regional composting facilities, and other techniques that can transform wastes into useful products, such as fuels or electricity, without the emission of significant air pollutants. Recommended Strategies:. • A regional solid waste technology task force should be established to evaluate opportunities for the application of new waste management technologies in the region. • Sponsor a regional conference to bring together representatives from the financial community, environmental technology businesses, and the public sector to facilitate the financing of new environmental technologies and the development of an environmental technology industry in the region. 5. FACILITATING REGIONAL DIALOGUE ON INTERCOUNTY WASTE DISPOSAL PROJECTS The: major intercounty waste disposal projects being considered in the SCAG region are designed to provide waste disposal capacity for several of the SCAG region counties. The inter-county disposal of waste on this scale will be new to the Southern California region. Traditionally, planning for waste disposal facility capacity has been conducted on a county level. The waste-by-rail proposals, however, raise several regional Page 14-22 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management questions. How many of the proposed facilities are needed to provide the region with adequate disposal capacity? What will be the impact of these facilities on the region's efforts to reduce and recycle wastes? What are the transportation and air quality implications of rail-haul? Recommended Strategies • Consistent planning information should be collected and disseminated on a regional scale on a regular basis to promote informed, regional decision-making during the consideration of regional landfills. Such information should include the following: • Information on regional landfill capacity and various factors that affect regional capacity, including Subtitle D landfill requirements, intercounty agreements, etc. • Information on the regional impact of rail-haul proposals on transportation systems and air quality. • Information on the relationship between regional landfill development and the development of recycling markets. H. INTEGRATION OF SOLID WASTE WITH OTHER REGIONAL ISSUES Because the generation of solid waste is tied to the full range of human activities (i.e., production, consumption, etc.) it intersects with several of the other issues facing this region and covered in SCAG's — regional comprehensive plan. Briefly, these intersections include the following: • Economic Development and Solid Waste As discussed above, the potential closing of several landfills and the development of regional, waste-by-rail landfills could increase waste disposal costs, negatively impacting area businesses. A more thorough assessment of the current full cost of waste management systems in the region is needed before such a conclusion can be drawn. On the positive side, the diversion requirements under AB 939 offer the opportunity for California and the SCAG region to become leaders in the manufacture of recycled products. Currently, financing and other impediments limit the ability of recycling industries to develop to their full extent. The development of recycling-based industries as part of the broader effort to develop regional environmental businesses is encouraged through the economic chapter of this document. • Air Quality. Transportation. and Solid Waste Waste-by-rail and other changes in the disposal infrastructure of the SCAG region, will modify waste disposal transportation patterns as well as change the amount of emissions from these transportation sources. Current policies aimed at electrifying rail transportation will play a large role in determining the ultimate impact of these changes. • Housing and Solid Waste. Housing patterns and development will have an impact of the amount and type of wastes produced in the region in the future and, thus, affect efforts at waste prevention. Per SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 14-23 Ems Chapter Fourteen • Integrated Solid Waste Management capita waste generation is traditionally higher in single-family housing than multi-unit housing. In addition, a higher percentage of waste generation in single-family housing is yard wastes. • Growth and Solid Waste. Growth has the most obvious impact on waste generation. As the region grows, waste generation can be expected to increase and increasing pressure will be put on existing landfill space. • Energy and Solid Waste. Solid waste disposal systems and infrastructure rely on energy sources (electricity, natural gas, and petroleum) to function. The energy chapter of this document evaluates more fully the energy consumption from solid waste disposal and the impacts of such energy consumption. Page 14-24 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan err+' `�✓ PLAN IMPLEMENTATION • Introduction • SCAG's Approach to Plan Implementation • Impacts on Local Government Decisions • Implementation Tools For Effectuating the RCP • Streamlining Implementation Procedures Using Regional Goals and Policies • RCP Updating Process • Consistency Standards and Procedures for Project, Plan and Program Review • Procedures for Expediting Review of Regionally Significant Gene:..; Development Projects A. INTRODUCTION This chapter outlines the collaborative effort and actions needed to implement the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP). It is directed toward the achievement of the primary goals contained in the RCP for the region: (1) a rising standard of living, (2) a healthful and environmentally sound quality of life, and (3) equity. The c overall plan implementation strategy invites the active participation of cities, counties, and subregional agencies, in addition to regional, state, and federal agencies as well as various private-sector interest groups. It is proposed that local governments be allowed the freedom to choose implementation measures that best suit local conditions from among an array of appropriate alternative proposals, whenever possible. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 15-1 ' 1 i Chapter Fifteen • Plan Implementation As an agency responsible for the coordination of regional decision-making and fostering better communication on regional issues, SCAG will work to promote the attainment of the regional goals and policies of the RCP to enhance the quality of life by encouraging the use of regional resources in ways that optimize the achievement of those goals and policies in the most cost-effective manner. B. SCAG's APPROACH TO PLAN IMPLEMENTATION SCAG will endeavor to exercise its existing authority in a manner that is sensitive to local needs and objectives, while also meeting state and federal requirements. No additional authority is being conferred upon SCAG to implement regional plans that did not exist prior to the formulation and adoption of this Plan. What has changed is that various regional plans prepared by SCAG and other agencies have been brought into a consolidated package for easier reference. For example, with or without a RCP, SCAG is required to analyze local projects of regional significance for consistency with all relevant, regional, or areawide plans regardless of which agencies prepared those plans.' The Regional Council will establish policy for how the implementation programs and procedures are administered. In all aspects of plan implementation, SCAG will support local jurisdictions and other service providers in their efforts to provide, equally to all members of society, accessible and effective services such as: public education, housing, health care, child care, social services, recreational facilities, law enforcement, and fire protection. Furthermore:, SCAG will support efforts of local jurisdictions and community leaders to equitable represent minority groups among elected and appointed officials. The entire populace should experience equal access to the decision-making processes and mechanisms bearing on plan implementation anywhere within the region. The tools that SCAG has to implement the goals of the RCP include Intergovernmental Program, Plan, and Project Review; Transportation Improvement Programming; the Regional Housing Needs Assessment; the Legislative Program; Alternative Dispute Resolution Processes; Memoranda of Understanding; Partnerships With Private Sector and Non-Profit Organizations; and Monitoring. These tools, and how they are to be used to implement the RCP, will be described later in this chapter, However, preceding that discussion are some examples of how the RCP might enhance the decision-making process by local governing bodies and other agencies. C. IMPACTS ON LOCAL GOVERNMENT DECISIONS The most frequent interaction between the RCP and local government actions are apt to be in the following program areas: • General Plan updates and revisions. • Housing element updates. • Review of regionally significant general development projects. • Programming transportation improvements. • Applications for state or federal funds for infrastructure improvements. ' CEQA Guidelines 9415206, 15125(b);also Exec. Order No. 12,372 (1982) Page 15-2 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan tab Chapter Fifteen • Plan Implementation • Design of water supply and wastewater treatment facilities. • Formulation of local measures to address state or federal air quality requirements. 0 Contracts or Memoranda of Understanding related to regional planning • Development of partnerships, particularly with the private sector • Resolution of planning and development disputes with other local jurisdictions. • Monitoring and reporting progress on the implementation of programs related to the RCP. In each of these program areas, it is likely that some contact will have been made with SCAG and/or a subregional agency to determine the relationship of the proposal to the RCP before it is placed on a local government agenda for a final decision. D. IMPLEMENTATION TOOLS FOR EFFECTUATING THE RCP The implementation tools described in this chapter do not create new legal mandates for local governments or other regional governmental organizations. 1 . Intergovernmental Review SCAG's long-established intergovernmental review procedures are routinely administered by professional staff. No changes in these responsibilities are envisioned in the immediate future. Intergovernmental Review staff will continue to assist cities, counties, and other agencies in the review of regionally significant plans, programs, and projects they submit. The intergovernmental review procedures are based on various state and federal requirements. These requirements are intended to assist local government to ensure that local plans, programs, and projects contribute to the attainment of regional goals and policies and thereby strengthen the effectiveness of multi- jurisdictional decision-making. While much of the RCP will have a predominantly advisory status in the referral program, some parts are more than just advisory. For instance, the Regional Mobility chapter — which is the action portion of the Regional Transportation Plan under state and federal law'— will influence the expenditure of transportation funds. Other types of legislation, such as the California Environmental Quality Act', serve to encourage the use of the regional plans to better inform the decision-makers on the probable areawide impacts of individual plans, programs, and projects. a. California Environmental Quality Act Referrals Draft environmental impact reports for projects of regional or areawide significance are referred to regional agencies, such as SCAG, for review and comment with respect to regional planning issues.` The California Environmental Quality Act requires that the documentation for all projects or plans subject to environmental review must address consistency of the subject proposals with regional plans. SCAG is obligated to respond to lead agencies and project sponsors with comments and recommendations for plan and project revision or Cal. Gov't Code §65080; 23 U.S.C. §134(g), 49 U.S.C. §1607(g) 3 Cal. Pub. Res. Code §21000 at seq. CEQA Guidelines §§15206, 15125(b) SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 15-3 Chapter Fifteen • Plan Implementation mitigation to achieve consistency with regional plans. SCAG's objective in reviewing projects and plans is to work with the cities and counties to help them implement the requirements that are imposed by federal, state, and regional mandates. b. Clearinghouse Function SCAG is the authorized regional agency for intergovernmental review of programs proposed for federal financial assistance and direct federal development activities.' When Southland cities and counties seek federal assistance for a project that will have measurable impact on the region's social, economic, or natural environment, the proposal must undergo project review by SCAG. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the proposals for consistency with grant requirements and regional planning goals based on the growth projected for the region and other factors. This process requires that SCAG — as an officially designated areawide clearinghouse-- circulate information about proposed projects to local governments and agencies within the region. All comments that are received, together with SCAG's own comments, are passed along to the applicant, who then submits them to the funding agency with the application. c. Conformity Review As the Metropolitan Planning Organization for this regionb, SCAG is required to determine conformity of certain types of plans, programs and projects with the applicable State Implementation Plan.' The conformity criteria and procedures differ according to which of the region's three air basins is involved. [Note: At present, these conformity procedures are being revised pursuant to newly issued federal rules. This work will culminate in the adoption of revised conformity criteria and procedures by SCAG's Regional Council at a later date. This section will be updated in the Proposed Plan.] d. General Procedures for Project, Plan, and Program Review When SCAG is analyzing a local general plan or a project of regional significance that has been submitted for review, special attention is given to the planning assumptions that underlie the plan or project. All planning assumptions related to estimates or projections of population, housing, employment, travel, and congestion should be consistent with the RCP. The process for determining whether proposed growth is consistent with the RCP is outlined in Section G of this chapter. The objective is to encourage lead agencies to give adequate consideration to the goals, principles, and policies of the RCP regarding growth management and to interpret and apply the RCP to their individual proposals on it consistent basis. 2. Regional Transportation Programming SCAG prepares the Regional Transportation Improvement Program (RTIP) in accordance with both federal and state laws in order do implement the goals of the regional transportation plan. It is a seven-year program b Exec. Order No. 12,372 (1982) 23 U.S.C. 5134(b)(1) '42 U.S.C. 57506(c) Page 15-4 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fifteen • Plan Implementation of regional transportation improvements for highways and transit that coordinates county and regional expenditures of federal, state, and local funds.$ SCAG must make a finding of conformity of the RTIP with the State Implementation Plan for Air Quality before submittal to federal agencies for approval. The RTIP serves as a project facilitator, a regional investment plan, and a mechanism for regional policy integration and implementation. 3. Regional Housing Needs Assessment Pursuant to state law, SCAG prepares the Regional Housing Needs Assessment for use by local government.9 This tool provides a basis for achieving regional and subregional consensus on what constitutes an equitable five-year local housing strategy to meet market area needs as well as state mandates. 4. Legislative Program The Regional Council may take policy positions on legislative and government affairs issues at the local, state and national levels, as appropriate, in order to carry out the policies and programs of the RCP. Upon request, SCAG will provide technical assistance to elected officials and their staffs by responding to requests for information, clarifying the intent of legislation in relation to the RCP, and explaining plan implementation problems and alternative solutions. Also, when appropriate, designated representatives will provide written legislative position papers and formal public testimony in the furtherance of the legislative program arising from the Plan. The authority for this legislative program is derived from SCAG's status as a Joint Powers Agency.10 5. Alternative Dispute Resolution Alternative dispute resolution processes and procedures will be developed to allow for the resolution of conflicts over RCP implementation issues outside the court system. These dispute resolution processes, as described in the Strategy chapter, will seek consensual decision-making for all types of issues, thereby minimizing the potential for indecision and delay in plan implementation. 6. Memoranda of Understanding It is expected that subregional agencies will continue to work closely with SCAG in the ensuing plan implementation and monitoring activities associated with this Plan. Most subregions or their representative parts have entered into Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) with SCAG proscribing the roles of SCAG and the subregion in the regional planning program and the scope of work for the subregion's contribution to the RCP. Similar arrangements have been, and will continue to be, made with other regional agencies. For example, SCAG and the region's air districts maintain MOUs detailing cooperative planning relationships and requiring that regional growth forecasts be used in the development of all air district plans. This planning tool has ®Cal. Gov't Code §65080; 23 U.S.C. §134(h), 49 U.S.C. §1607(8) °Cal. Gov't Code 165584(a) 1O Cal. Gov't Code §6502 at seq. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 15-5 Chapter Fifteen • Plan Implementation potential for more widespread application as the region progresses toward a more inclusive style of decision- making. 7.. Partnerships With Private Sector and Non-Profit Organizations In order for plan implementation efforts to be truly successful in meeting the objectives of the RCP, it is necessary to engage private sector and non-profit organizations in partnership arrangements with local and state government. This theme is often repeated throughout the RCP. The Air Quality chapter states that SCAG and the air districts should involve private sector interests in all phases of the decision-making process. The Housing chapter details the needed actions by builders, non-profits, construction unions, banks, community, and neighborhood organizations. The Transportation chapter points to the need to involve the private sector and non-profit agencies in providing innovative technological means to reduce vehicular emissions. These are but a few of the illustrations that could be cited. In reality, without the forging of new partnerships and new working arrangements of this sort, no amount of plan implementation effort is likely to achieve the desired results. 8., Monitoring Program a. Purpose The development of a Regional Monitoring Program is a vital element in the attainment strategy for the RCP. This program will communicate the RCP's effectiveness in guiding and influencing development within the framework of regional goals and policies. It will serve as a hearing aid for listening and learning what is happening at the local level. It will also fulfill state and federal monitoring mandates, and track the capacity of the region's resources in relation to growth trends. The mitigation measures in the RCP's Environmental Impact Report (EIR) will be monitored and policy-makers will be alerted to the need for corrective actions. Of particular importance is that this program will enable SCAG to maintain the Master Environmental Assessment for the RCP as a viable document for tiering purposes (the tiering concept is described in Section E of this chapter). Fundamental to the Monitoring Program is the development of a comprehensive database and monitoring indicators to measure and report on local and regional changes over time. Subregional entities will be directly involved in monitoring change through data reporting, reviewing local plan implementation, and participating in the review and updating of regional policies. The regional monitoring program has three aspects —policy, planning, and administrative. The policy dimension is to assess the effectiveness of RCP policies on both the subregional and regional levels, and to measure the realization of RCP objectives in the areas of growth, mobility, air quality, housing affordability, and economic development. The planning dimension would be structured to analyze the interrelationships arriong the RCP Elements, and track development trends. Finally, the administrative aspect of the program should further improve the Intergovernmental Review process by providing better information on regionally significant plans and projects. Essentially, the Monitoring Progra�.. will track the mitigation measures included in the RCP EIR and provide the means for sustaining the tiering capability of the RCP EIR. This approach should allow local jurisdictions to garner substantial cost reductions for the environmental assessment of local projects. b. Uniform Coordinated Effort One objective of the Regional Monitoring Program will be to minimize the duplication of reporting pursuant Page 15-6 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fifteen • Plan Implementation to state and federal report mandates." A regular reporting schedule will be established as one means of eliminating redundancy and reducing the time and effort of local jurisdictions and other agencies in producing reports. For the Regional Monitoring Program, the following existing mandated reports will assist in addressing the effectiveness of the RCP policies and elements. Under the federal Clear Air Act, as amended in 1990, SCAG is required to make a conformity determination on the "timely implementation" of the Transportation Control Measures for the applicable State Implementation Plans for all air basins in the region as part of SCAG's Regional Transportation Plan and Regional Transportation Improvement Program.12 The federal Clean Air Act also requires that reports on Vehicle Miles Travelled be prepared to assess the effectiveness of SCAG's regional air quality and transportation plans. Accordingly, SCAG will prepare a Vehicle Miles Travelled Forecast and Annual Report that will contain an annual forecast update of Vehicle Miles Travelled in the non- attainment areas of the region. The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 mandates the development and maintenance of several transportation management systems for the region." Several of these systems are identified as shared responsibilities for the state and the Metropolitan Planning Organization. Therefore, SCAG may have some responsibility for preparing reports related to these systems. Additionally, SCAG is responsible for monitoring compliance of Congestion Management Plans with the California congestion management program.'' c. Updating the RCP Database Central to the monitoring function is the RCP Database, which will receive information using specially selected indicators. These indicators will be designed to measure changes in the quality of life in Southern California as the RCP is implemented. The database will define the extent and scope of the monitoring effort as it will be the central receiving mechanism within SCAG for information obtained from the r Intergovernmental Review process, Master Environmental Assessment Database, the RCP EIR, and related ` functions. The Regional Monitoring Program will also gather information from the subregional agencies and other sources, and then provide the participating agencies with access to the monitoring database. d. Implementing the Monitoring Program The implementation of the Regional Monitoring Program will be phased in during a period of years. The initial effort will involve the development of a standardized body of information to guide the subregional effort and ensure the Compatibility of data collected through the subregional effort. A Regional Monitoring Working Group will be established with membership from every subregion to reach a consensus on data collection as well as to establish a computer network to ultimately provide direct input and access to the Regional Database. An example of a subregional monitoring program is the proposal of the Western Riverside Council of 11 Input from the Westside Cities, October 18, 1993, pp. 5 and 6. 12 42 U.S.C. 57506(c) 13 23 U.S.C. S 101 at seq. 1`Cal. Gov't Code 565089.2 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 15-7 Chapter Fifteen • Plan Implementation Governments (WRCOG) to establish a pilot program for the western cities of Riverside County." This program attempts to facilitate local jurisdictional compliance with the mobile emission requirements of the 1991 AQMP. The program proposes the following three components: (1) It would provide a methodology for integrating regional land use, transportation, and air quality requirements into a comprehensive subregional plan of action to meet proposed Vehicle Trip and Vehicle Miles Travelled reduction targets; (2) it would establish a method to measure progress toward attainment of those Vehicle TripiVehicle Miles Travelled reduction targets; and, (3) it would apply the methodologies and approaches developed to a defined geographical territory within the WRCOG area. E. STREAMLINING IMPLEMENTATION PROCEDURES USING REGIONAL GOALS AND POLICIES SCAG is committed to streamlining implementation procedures of the RCP and other plans and programs where it can play a constructive role. The Plan itself provides useful guidance in this regard. It is particularly fitting that "red-tape-cutting" tools be used to assist the so-called communities-in-need identified in Chapter 7.16 These are the areas scattered throughout the region that are experiencing high levels of unemployment, poverty, low educational achievement, etc. It is in such areas where various administrative procedures often appear to be most inappropriate and to conflict with the goal of achieving greater equity among communities. The following section outlines six streamlining programs that merit further consideration. 1 . On-going Procedures for Simplifying the EIR and the Development Permitting and Approval Processes a. Using the Master Environmental Assessment as the Basis for Tiered Environmental Impact Reports The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and various provisions of the CEQA Guidelines authorize the use of the RCP EIR for documenting regional impacts of successive discretionary projects (such as local general plan updates or general development projects) in order to simplify environmental review." This is known as "tiering". Through tiering, the environmental review for a subsequent project can be limited to the additional significant effects and site specific impacts that were not examined in the RCP EIR. Normally, most of the regional-level environmental impacts of a project will have already been addressed in the RCP EIR, if the project is consistent with the RCP. If that is not the case, or if there are local or site specific impacts that were not addressed in the RCP EIR, only those unique effects would have to be addressed in a supplemental EIR. 15 Subregional input from the Western Riverside Council of Governments 16 Subregional input 77 CEQA Guidelines 915152 Page 15-8 • Decefnber 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fifteen • Plan Implementation The CEQA Guidelines require that any EIR or negative declaration using the tiering principle must refer to the prior EIR, state where copies may be examined, and state that tiering is being used. Tiering may not be employed when the project is inconsistent with the RCP, the local general plan or zoning. Also, the EIR for the RCP may not be an adequate foundation for tiering an Environmental Impact Statement prepared pursuant to the requirements of NEPA. Overall, use of this tiering procedure could result in significant cost savings to local governments because it has the potential to reduce redundancy, simplify the process, and save time and effort in preparing EIRs. b. Encouraging Innovative Approaches to Regulation SCAG will continue to work with public and private sector groups that are developing and encouraging innovative approaches to regulation which result in the simplification of complex and time-consuming procedures. This could involve the preparation of model codes and guidelines. c. Data Support for Planning and Project Approval SCAG will continue to provide data support, on a cost-recovery basis, to public and private sector agencies for planning and project review and approval purposes. 2. Other Streamlining Programs Under Consideration [Note: SCAG has a task force that is considering other programs that have been suggested for streamlining the project review and permit approval process. These suggestions will undergo further review before being recommended for action. This section will be updated in the Proposed Plan.] L a. Raising Thresholds for Ministerial Projects SCAG supports the adoption of ordinances and other local land use regulation measures that reduce the bureaucratic system that may stifle new development. One way to accomplish this is to adopt a streamlining ordinance that raises the threshold levels for ministerial projects. Currently, in many jurisdictions discretionary project review involves examination by committees, the planning commission, and the city council. This is often a time consuming process taking many months, if not several years. The purpose of a streamlining ordinance is to clearly identify project requirements, which would reduce development review to a pre-plan check process by staff to ensure code compliance. In addition, if a proposed project falls under ministerial review, it would be exempt from the California Environmental Quality Act requirements. However, if a project is determined to be of statewide, regional, or areawide significance, then the project would be required to undergo environmental assessment. To assist local jurisdictions, SCAG will attempt to develop threshold levels or a process to develop them. It is important to recognize that the development of a streamlining ordinance by a local jurisdiction cannot be done in isolation. The underlying foundation for raising threshold levels is a solid base of long-range planning and consistency with the plans and policies contained in the RCP. This base, coupled with a team approach among city departments that is conducive to frequent and open communication, will help to achieve successful results. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 15-9 Chapter Fifteen 0 Plan Implementation b. Confronting Adverse Cost-Benefit Effects of New Programs In addition to the usual contents of a program EIR, studies of the impacts of any new significant programs involving rules or regulations may need to include an analysis of the influence on the economy of the region and on job creation. Economic considerations are already included to some degree in many rule-making programs. However, they are not always given enough emphasis, considering the condition of the region's economy. SCAG encourages local jurisdictions to pay particular attention to the costs and benefits of project related recommendations. Although in-depth cost-benefit analyses are not always possible for every project recommendation, careful examination of both short and long-term benefits and costs are important for every jurisdiction. In order to facilitate successful analyses, SCAG encourages the formation of cost-benefit checklists specifically tailored to local jurisdictions. By using such a checklist during project review, a rough estimate of local and regional economic impacts can be examined. The systematic inclusion of economic issues and cost-benefit effects in future studies of proposed programs, projects, rules, and regulations can be used to determine whether such proposals are truly worthwhile. Proposals of this type that would adversely affect the local or regional economy should be revised or discarded. c. Point Persons For Promoting_Economic Vitality SCAG could be directed to designate "poi..persons" who would assist in coordinating contacts between local officials and federal, state, regional, and subregional authorities in order to expedite action on permits for development of beneficial local projects and/or the promotion of cluster industries. In certain instances, this assistance might involve intergovernmental mediation on behalf of major projects that would promote the goals of the RCP. 3. Certification Process For Local General Plans a. Expedited Review of Regionally Significant Projects As previously indicated, SCAG has the responsibility, under provisions of the California Environmental Quality Act, for reviewing localities' general development projects and plans of regional significance to determine consistency with regional goals and objectives. A process to expedite this review was first established by the Air Quality Management Plan for the South Coast Air Basin in 1991. It was further detailed in guidance adopted by SCAG's governing body in 1992.18 The procedure provides that, if localities within the South Coast Air Basin adopt air quality elements and revise their general plans to be consistent with regional plans, these jurisdictions can then be certified to review their own local projects against their general plans rather than waiting for review at the regional level. In this Plan, the concept has been broadened to encourage the harmonization of entire local plans with the RCP throughout the region. SCAG will continue to certify participating cities and counties to review their local projects in relation to their own general plans rather than waiting for review with the RCP at the regional level. The review and approval process for projects can be accelerated in this way and the results should be equally beneficial from the regional standpoint. Property owners and developers should also benefit from this expedited project approval process. A more complete discussion of these procedures is provided in Section H of this chapter. " Criteria for Reviewing and Certifying Local General Plan Provisions and/or Action Plans Which Implement the Air Quality Management Plan, August 6, 1992. Page 15-10 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan Chapter Fifteen • Plan Implementation b. Future Study of Delegating Additional Implementation Responsibilities to Subregions Although the certification procedure has undergone expansion in this plan, further streamlining and simplification may be possible. If widespread acceptance of the concept is realized, the harmonization of local plans with regional plans could become one of the primary mechanisms for implementation of the RCP. Eventually, it is proposed that, as memoranda of understanding are developed with subregional agencies and with local government, and as consistency is developed between subregional plans and the RCP, additional aspects of the Intergovernmental Review function could be decentralized to the subregions. Subregional agencies could subsequently be involved in the "certification" of local general plans provided that the individual agency had a Memorandum of Understanding with SCAG for that purpose and could be held accountable for fulfilling its agreements. Subregions would then become directly involved in the making of consistency determinations for projects of regional significance. It has been suggested that the "certification" concept be extended to encompass a four-tier structure. • Cities and counties adopt general plans that are consistent with the RCP and subregional plans. • Subregional agencies certify consistent local general plans. • SCAG certifies subregional plans that are consistent with the RCP. • Region uses unified RCP approach in resolving any conflicts between higher-level (federal and state government) mandates and local goals and policies. Thereafter, SCAG, subregions, and local government would endeavor to jointly expedite conforming projects without further review by other governmental agencies. However, due to the many complex variables involved, the design and full implementation of this program could take an extended period of time to accomplish. F. RCP UPDATING PROCESS r L As stated in the Strategy chapter, the RCP is not a static document. It will evolve over time through regular updating and amendment. The updating process is expected to be flexible and dynamic — changing over time in response to demand. This will provide opportunity to evaluate progress in implementing the strategies and programs of the Plan and to refine various Regional Council policies. The impetus for plan revision may come from various sources. SCAG's on-going relationship with subregional agencies will produce additional reports containing analyses and recommendations for plan amendments. Also, it is expected that, as each of these participants becomes more involved in the plan implementation process, new insights will gained and this too may result in reexamination of some aspects of the Plan. For instance, an analysis of development trends may raise concern regarding the region's progress in achieving economic and other primary goals established in the Plan. Some of the goals or plan implementation procedures will undoubtedly require modification from time-to-time. The Monitoring Program should be particularly valuable in alerting decision-makers to circumstances necessitating plan review and revision. For any amendment to the Plan, public participation and intergovernmental coordination will occur at every stage of the process. There will be a public outreach program that has sufficient depth and breadth to meet all state and federal public participation rules and requirements. Also, all of the relevant provisions of the California Environmental Quality Act will integrated with the process at each step of the way. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 15-11 1 1 Chapter Fifteen • Plan Implementation [Note: The Mobility chapter, which constitutes the action portion of the Regional Transportation Plan, is subject to a complex multiplicity of state and federal rules. For that reason, a different set of procedures and schedules may govern with respect to amendments to that chapter.] G. CONSISTENCY STANDARDS AND PROCEDURES FOR PROJECT, PLAN, AND PROGRAM REVIEW When SCAG is reviewing a local general plan, a project or program of regional significance, special attention will be given to the planning assumptions that underlie the plan or project. All planning assumptions related to estimates or projections of population, housing, employment, travel, and congestion should be derived from the RCP. The steps for reviewing regionally significant projects, plans or programs (hereafter called 'projects') for consistency with the goals, principles, and policies of the RCP are as follows: • Determine whether the regionally significant project is in a jurisdiction and a subregion that are implementing the RCP (as shown by SCAG's Monitoring Program and by the Draft EIR for the project). O Lead agencies should approve growth proposals only in areas where the RCP is being implemented. It is doubtful that projects can be considered to be consistent with the RCP in areas where the RCP is not being implemented. • Determine whether the project is consistent with the assumptions, policies and programs of the RCP. 0 Determine whether the growth associated with the project is consistent with the amount of growth forecasted in the appropriate subregion and local area and with the growth management policies and assumptions of the RCP. o This step is designed to reveal whether the projected growth is consistent with the growth assumed in the RCP and also consistent with the trips and Vehicle Miles Travelled projected for that .area. • If a project is found to be consistent with these checks, then it will be determined to have consistent demographic impacts. However, if one or more of the factors (population, housing, or employment) has surpassed its forecasted level, then more detailed analysis will be triggered to determine the significance of the difference. • Determine whether sufficient mitigation measures have been proposed to offset project-related impacts to a level that is consistent with the growth forecasts. If the project is found to have a negative impact on the attainment of regional goals, policies or objectives, then SCAG staff will recommend either revision of the project or development of sufficient mitigation to offset the negative impact. The cumulative impacts obtained from the monitoring system could also influence this determination. 0 SCAG staff will consult with the appropriate SCAG policy committee(s) regarding those major projects that raise significant policy issues. The objective of this step is to ensure that SCAG staff is Page 15-12 • December 1993 SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan 0 Chapter Fifteen 0 Plan Implementation correctly interpreting and applying the goals, objectives, and policies of the RCP. H. PROCEDURES FOR EXPEDITING REVIEW OF REGIONALLY SIGNIFICANT GENERAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS The RCP provides encouragement for local jurisdictions to blend their general plans with SCAG's regional plans. It is desirable that local plans be aligned with the RCP so they incorporate regional goals and standards in addition to their responses to local issues. Local general plans should establish procedures for the determination of consistency of plan from an intergovernmental point of view. The goals, standards, and procedures of local general plans pertaining to regional issues should be made to be at least as effective as I those in regional plans. As an incentive to encourage local government to join SCAG in this effort, a procedure has been developed to certify consistent general plans and to provide for local review of general development projects of regional significance for consistency with the RCP. The criteria for localities wanting to perform consistency review of their own general development projects is as follows: (1) review of the local general plan to confirm consistency with the RCP; (2) affirmation of internal general plan consistency; (3) commitment by the jurisdiction to implement its general plan consistent with regional goals and objectives; (4) provision of schedules, staff responsibilities and adequate project review procedures for plan implementation; and (5) participation in monitoring and reporting on expeditious implementation of air quality measures identified for implementation by local government. SCAG will review local general plan amendments and updates, and provide guidance on how best to adapt regional goals, standards, and procedures to local conditions. If modification of a general plan is required, SCAG will offer to provide assistance in formulating the modification. When agreement has been reached, SCAG will formally authorize the jurisdiction to conduct its own local conformity and consistency reviews. Authorization requires these steps: A city or county uses a worksheet provided by SCAG to provide documentation that the criteria have been met. The completed worksheet is approved by the jurisdiction's governing body, or by the mayor or chief administrative officer, and returned to SCAG. SCAG staff reviews the worksheet, the documentation, and any other relevant material, and makes a recommendation as to whether the jurisdiction's general plan has been harmonized with regional plans, and whether the jurisdiction is prepared to perform local conformity and consistency reviews. If policy issues are involved, SCAG's plan implementation policy committee will be consulted. If the request is approved, the jurisdiction is then notified of this action. At that point, the jurisdiction can begin to exercise it's authority to review its own general development projects for consistency with regional plans, reporting its actions annually to SCAG. SCAG's role then shifts from reviewing individual projects to reviewing updates of general plans, and to monitoring plan implementation to assure that projects, as approved and built, cumulatively achieve the desired results for air quality and other regional goals and objectives. SCAG will also look for assurance that conformity with the respective Air Quality Management Plan, and consistency with the RCP, is maintained. Periodic reviews will be made of localities' progress in implementing the provisions of the RCP and the respective Air Quality Management Plan, including a review of the locality's actions in approving general development projects. As long as the jurisdiction remains eligible to conduct its own conformity and consistency reviews, SCAG will not review individual projects. But, as would be expected, SCAG will continue to review individual projects of regional significance in jurisdictions whose general plans are not consistent with regional goals and standards. SCAG • Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan December 1993 • Page 15-13 APPENDICES r APPENDIX A MEMBERSHIP OF SUBREGIONS 1. Arroyo Verdugo County of Los Angeles, Burbank, Glendale, La Canada Flintridge, Pasadena, South Pasadena 2. City of Los Angeles County of Los Angeles, City of Los Angeles 3. Coachella Valley Association of Governments (CVAG) County of Riverside, Blythe, Cathedral City, Coachella, Desert Hot Springs, Indio, Indian Wells, La Quinta, Palm Desert, Palm Springs, Rancho Mirage 4. Imperial Valley Association of Governments (IVAG) County of Imperial, Brawley, Calexico, Calipatria, El Centro, Holtville, Imperial, Westmorland 5. North Los Angeles County County of Los Angeles, Lancaster, Palmdale, Santa Clarita 6. Orange County County of Orange, Anaheim, Brea, Buena Park, Costa Mesa, Cypress, Dana Point, Fountain Valley, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills,Laguna Niguel, La Habra, Lake Forest, La Palma, Los Alamitos, Mission Viejo, Newport Beach, Orange, Placentia, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Santa Ana, Seal Beach, Stanton, Tustin, Villa Park, Westminster, Yorba Linda 7. San Bernardino Associated Governments (SANBAG) County of San Bernardino, Adelanto, Apple Valley, Barstow, Big Bear Lake, Chino, Chino Hills, Colton, Fontana, Grand Terrace, Hesperia, Highland, Loma Linda, Montclair, Needles, Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga, Redlands, Rialto, San Bernardino, Twentynine Palms, Upland, Victorville, Yucca Valley, Yucaipa A-1 • MEMBERSHIP OF SUBREGIONS (continued) 8. San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities County of Los Angeles, Alhambra,Arcadia,Azusa,Baldwin Park,Bradbury,Claremont, Covina, Diamond Bar, Duarte, El Monte, Glendora, Industry, Irwindale, La Puente, Laverne, Monrovia, Monterey Park, Pasadena, Pomona, Rosemead, San Dimas, San Gabriel, San Marino, Sierra Madre, South El Monte, Temple City, Walnut, West Covina 9. South Bay Cities Association City of Los Angeles, County of Los Angeles, Carson, El Segundo, Gardena, Hawthorne, Hermosa Beach, Inglewood, Lawndale,Lomita, Manhattan Beach, Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, Redondo Beach, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates, Torrance 10. Southeast Los Angeles County (SELAC) County of Los Angeles, Artesia, Bell, Bellflower, Bell Gardens, Cerritos, Commerce, Compton, Cudahy, Downey, Hawaiian Gardens, Huntington Park, Lakewood, La Habra Heights, La Mirada, Long Beach, Lynwood, Maywood, Montebello, Norwalk, Paramount, Pico Rivera, Santa Fe Springs, Signal Hill, South Gate, Vernon, Whittier I11. Ventura Council of Governments County of Ventura, Agoura Hills, Camarillo, Fillmore, Moorpark, Ojai, Oxnard, Port Hueneme, San Buena Ventura, Santa Clarita, Santa Paula, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Westlake Village, I 12. Western Riverside Council of Governments (WRCOG) County of Riverside,Banning,Beaumont,Calimesa, Canyon Lake, Corona,Hemet,Lake Elsinore, Moreno Valley, Murrieta, Norco, Perris, Riverside, San Jacinto, Temecula 13. Westside Cities County of Los Angeles, Beverly Hills, Culver City, Santa Monica, West Hollywood NOT CURRENTLY WITHIN SUBREGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS: Avalon, Calabasas, Hidden Hills, Malibu, San Fernando A-2 u .o U V U U U U 3 •- a ¢ a ¢ a a ¢ ¢ $ a a a a ¢ a s ¢ U > a a as oa as Aa as Aa m as as w N U a � LT. w U a Vi GO AC1 L1� CO C1 f� Z U z w _ o a� WTQ U U U U U U U U u .a 7 C!� U U U U MiM 'n U U U U U U U Q e� C G ,7 o O O Q cA O 0 rA M fz, cu a, p4 a, O O Iti \ cc a> O ea 3 En cn U U &n :a ¢ aiuA A-3 0 APPENDIX B ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 208 EPA WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT PROGRAM A-95 FEDERAL REQUIREMENTS FOR REVIEW OF PROPOSED GRANT APPLICATIONS [(REPEALED; NOW EXEC. ORDER NO. 12,372)(1982)] AB1246 BILL ESTABLISHING COUNTY TRANSPORTATION COMMISSIONS AND SCAG CON- , VENED MEETING PROCESS ABAG ASSOCIATION OF BAY AREA GOVERNMENTS APCD AIR POLLUTION CONTROL DISTRICT AQMD AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AQMP AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN ARB AIR RESOURCES BOARD (STATE) ATAC AVIATION TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE AVO AVERAGE VEHICLE OCCUPANCY AVR AVERAGE VEHICLE RIDERSHIP BIA BUILDING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION BLM BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT (FEDERAL) CAA CLEAN AIR ACT (FEDERAL) t CALCOG CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF COUNCILS OF GOVERNMENT CALTRANS CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION CBD CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT CCAA CALIFORNIA CLEAN AIR ACT (SHER BILL) STATS. 1988, CH. 1568 CEHD COMMUNITY, ECONOMIC AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE (SCAG) CEQA CALIFORNIA ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ACT CMA CONGESTION MANAGEMENT AGENCY B-1 I CMAQ CONGESTION MITIGATION AIR QUALITY FUNDS (ISTEA) CMP CONGESTION MANAGEMENT PROGRAM CO CARBON MONOXIDE COG COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS CSAC CALIFORNIA STATE ASSOCIATION OF COUNTIES CTC CALIFORNIA TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION CTS COMMUTER TRANSPORTATION SERVICES (COMMUTER COMPUTER) CVAG COACHELLA VALLEY ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS DOF DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE (STATE) DOT DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (FEDERAL) EEC ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT COMMITTEE (SCAG) EIR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT (STATE) i EIS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT (FEDERAL) EPA ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY i FAA FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION i FHWA FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION i FIP FEDERAL IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (AIR QUALITY) i FRA FEDERAL RAILROAD ADMINISTRATION i FTA FEDERAL TRANSIT ADMINISTRATION HCD DEPARTMENT HOUSING AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT (STATE) HHS DEPARTMENT HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (FEDERAL) HOV HIGH-OCCUPANCY VEHICLE HUD (DEPARTMENT OF) HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT (FEDERAL) IGR INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVIEW ISTEA INTERMODAL SURFACE TRANSPORTATION EFFICIENCY ACT B-2 IVAG IMPERIAL VALLEY ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS LACAPO LOS ANGELES COUNTY ASSOCIATION OF PLANNING OFFICIALS LACC LOCAL ASSISTANCE COMPLIANCE COMMITTEE (SCAG) LAFCO LOCAL AGENCY FORMATION COMMISSION LAMTA LOS ANGELES METROPOLITAN TRANSIT AUTHORITY LEWIS- STATE STATUTE CREATING SOUTH COAST AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT PRESLEY DISTRICT (SCAQMD) AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS (SCAG) AIR QUALITY RESPONSIBILITIES MOU MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING MPO METROPOLITAN PLANNING ORGANIZATION MTC METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION (BAY AREA) g MWD METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT (SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA) NAAQS NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS NARC NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REGIONAL COUNCILS NEPA NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT NHS NATIONAL HIGHWAY SYSTEM NLC NATIONAL LEAGUE OF CITIES NOP NOTICE OF PREPARATION NO= NITROGEN OXIDES O, OZONE OCTA ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY OMB OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET (FEDERAL) OPR OFFICE OF PLANNING AND RESEARCH (STATE) OWP OVERALL WORK PROGRAM PM-10 PARTICULATE MATTER PUC PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION (STATE) B-3 L wrrrrrr. RAC REGIONAL ADVISORY COUNCIL RCP REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE PLAN RCTC RIVERSIDE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION RFP REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL OR REASONABLE FURTHER PROGRESS (AIR QUALITY) RHNA REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT RISC REGIONAL INSTITUTE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RME REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT (SEE RTP) (SCAG) ROG REACTIVE ORGANIC GASES 1 RTA RIVERSIDE TRANSIT AGENCY 1 RTIP REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM 1 RTP REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 1 RTPA REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AGENCY RWQCB REGIONAL WATER QUALITY CONTROL BOARD SANBAG SAN BERNARDINO ASSOCIATED GOVERNMENTS 1 SANDAG SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS 1 SCAB SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN 1 SCAG SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS i SCAQMD SOUTH COAST AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT DISTRICT SCHWMA SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAZARDOUS WASTE MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY SCRRA SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REGIONAL RAIL AUTHORITY 1 SCRTD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RAPID TRANSIT DISTRICT 1 SEDAB SOUTHEAST DESERT AIR BASIN 1 SELAC SOUTHEAST LOS ANGELES COUNTY SIP STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (AIR QUALITY) B-4 SRTP SHORT RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN STIP STATE TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM STP SURFACE TRANSPORTATION PROGRAM (ISTEA) SWRCB STATE WATER RESOURCES CONTROL BOARD TCC TRANSPORTATION AND COMMUNICATIONS COMMITTEE (SCAG) TCM TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURE TDA TRANSPORTATION DEVELOPMENT ACT TIP TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM VAPCD VENTURA AIR POLLUTION CONTROL DISTRICT VCTC VENTURA COUNTY TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION E VMT VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED WRCOG WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS C B-5 1 1 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The following groups and consultants are recognized for their participation, cooperation, and support, which facilitated the overall development of the various chapters in the Regional Comprehensive Plan: Bureau of Land Management California Energy Commission Dick Crowe, Bureau of Land Management Economic Development Corporation (EDC) of Los Angeles County EPICS International Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler Suzanne Healy, Consultant Frank E. Hotchkiss, Consultant Inland Empire Economic Partnership JHA Environmental Consultants, Inc. Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce Metropolitan Water District Partnership 2010 The Planning Center Regional Growth Management Working Group Regional Housing Needs Assessment Subcommittee Regional Mobility Working Group Sedway Cooke Associates Southern California Edison Southern California Hazardous Waste Management Authority Urban Innovations Group 2000 Regional Partnership (Formerly Regional Institute for Southern California, or RISC) SCAG Regional Council SCAG Subregional Organizations STAFF ACKNOWLEDGMENTS SCAG Management Mark Pisano Executive Director Lou Moret Chief Operating Officer James Gosnell Director, Planning and Policy Arnold Sherwood Director, Forecasting Analysis and Monitoring Gil Smith Director, Government and Public Affairs Helene Smookler Director, Legal Services 1 Regional Comprehensive Plan Staff David Stein Principal Planner, Regional Comprehensive Plan Terry Bills Principal Planner, Data Base/GIS Joe Carreras Principal Planner, Housing Ralph Cipriani Formerly Principal Planner, Regional Mobility Policy Plan Bruce DeVine Principal Planner, Economic Analysis Vivian Doche Principal Planner, Strategic Growth Management Planning Hong Kim Principal Planner, Modeling Pat Michell Principal Planner, Regional Mobility Policy Plan Richard Spicer Principal Planner, Regional Mobility/Air Quality Planning Erika Vandenbrande Principal Planner, Demand Management Planning Grieg Asher Formerly Senior Planner, Regional Mobility Policy Plan Glenn Blossom Senior Planner, Regional Plan Implementation Bill Boyd Senior Planner, Air Quality Planning Bill Martinez Formerly Senior Planner, Regional Mobility Policy Plan Felix Oduyemi Senior Planner, Open Space and Conservation Chris Warshaw Senior Planner, Energy, Hazardous Waste, Solid Waste, Water Quality, Water Resources Sylvia Patsaouras Assistant Planner, Human Resources and Services Regional Comprehensive Plan Supporting Staff Fernando del Rio Principal Planner, Public Communications Al Fuentes Principal Planner, Membership Services Paul Hatanaka Principal Planner, Environmental Analysis Nelson Hernandez Principal Planner, Strategic Growth Management Planning Tim Merwin Principal Planner, Aviation Planning Debra Varnado Principal Planner, Congestion Management Planning Betty Werthman Principal Planner, Regional Mobility Policy Plan Bijan Yarjani Principal Planner, Transit Planning Michael Ainsworth Senior Planner, Riverside Office Mike Armstrong Senior Planner, Aviation Planning Srini Bhat Senior Planner, Riverside Office Murray Goldman Senior Planner, Modeling Regional Comprehensive Plan Supporting Staff (Cont.) Alan Havens Senior Planner, Transit Planning Robert Huddy Senior Planner, Demand Management Plan Dale Iwai Senior Planner, Modeling Jim Jacob Senior Planner, Data Base/GIS Michael Kahn Senior Planner, Modeling Richard Mader Senior Planner, Data Base/GIS Clint Rosemond Senior Planner, Public Communications Mahmoud Shams-Ahmadi Senior Planner, Regional Mobility Policy Plan Frank Wen Senior Planner, Economic Analysis Teresa Wang Senior Planner, Modeling Steve Zweiback Senior Planner, Congestion Management Planning Mary Jane Abare Associate Planner, Data Base/GIS Opoku Acheampong Associate Planner, Strategic Growth Management Planning Susie Berzsenyi Associate Planner, Operations Margaret Ide Associate Planner, Environmental Analysis Craig Johnson Associate Planner, Membership Services Myungjin Jun Associate Planner, Data Base/GIS Javier Minjares Associate Planner, Data Base/GIS Jaleh Mirashemi Associate Planner, Aviation Planning Barry Samsten Associate Planner, Transit Planning Arnold San Miguel Associate Planner, Riverside Office Denise Smith Associate Planner, Government Affairs Shelly Snyder Associate Planner, Public Communications Jack Tsao Associate Planner, Modeling Joel Bryant Assistant Planner, Regional Mobility Policy Plan Bob Chacon Assistant Planner, Demand Management Planning °- Seong Choi Assistant Planner, Demographic Analysis Don Dumandan Assistant Planner, Operations Dilara EI-Assaad Assistant Planner, Demand Management Planning Shi Cheng Fu Assistant Planner, Data Base/GIS Welma Fu Assistant Planner, Operations Uriel Gallegos Assistant Planner, Data Base/GIS Norene Hastings Assistant Planner, Aviation Planning Tabi Hiwot Assistant Planner, Demand Management Planning Alex Jalinous Assistant Planner, Riverside Office Summer Lieu Assistant Planner, Modeling Gustavo Perez Assistant Planner, Environmental Analysis Nilon Seals Assistant Planner, Housing Bernice Villanueva Assistant Planner, Regional Mobility Policy Plan Terry Yergan Assistant Planner, Data Base/GIS Ying Zhou Assistant Planner, Data Base/GIS Kay Murakami Aide, Data Base/GIS Dan Akins Intern David Butman Intern Erica Canari Intern Doug Lewis Intern Mike Martinez Intern, Assistant RCP Document Coordinator Todd Beeler Temporary, Subregional Coordinator Other Staff Nona Edelen Principal Planner, Government Affairs Ralph Levy Principal Planner, Administrative Services Ricardo Olivarez Principal Planner, Financial Management and Accounting Eric Roth Principal Planner, Intergovernmental Review Victor Ryden Principal Planner, Operations Loretta Anaya Senior Planner, Administrative Services Rosemary Ayala Senior Planner, Intergovernmental Review Betty Araos Senior Planner, Financial Management and Accounting Manuel Gurrola Senior Planner, Intergovernmental Review Charles Keynejad Senior Planner, Intergovernmental Review Mwara Mwembu Senior Planner, Administrative Services Joan Chen Associate Planner, Financial Management and Accounting Linda Collins Associate Planner, Financial Management and Accounting Barbara Dove Associate Planner, Intergovernmental Review Laura Ibarra Associate Planner, Intergovernmental Review Shahab Rabbani Associate Planner, Environmental Analysis Anne Louis Rice Associate Planner, Government Affairs Ed Rodriguez Associate Planner, Environmental Analysis Maria Souza Roundtree Associate Planner, Intergovernmental Review Maria Vasquez Associate Planner, Intergovernmental Review Kurt Walker Associate Planner, Operations Luis Barreda Assistant Planner, Financial Management and Accounting Maureen Farley Assistant Planner, Intergovernmental Review Irma Chism Secretary, Forecasting Analysis & Monitoring Nancy Cobb Secretary, Planning and Policy Marie Franklin Secretary, Forecasting Analysis & Monitoring Dee Johnson Secretary, Government and Public Affairs Department Laverne Jones Secretary, Planning and Policy Carole Kohn Secretary, Chief Operating Officer Betty Mann Secretary, Forecasting Analysis & Monitoring Judy Ownes Secretary, Executive Director Sheila Stewart Secretary, Government and Public Affairs Department Elaine Anderson Aide, Operations Pat Cadena Reproduction Clerk, Operations Catherine Rachal Reproduction Clerk, Operations Corine Milner Receptionist Interns/Temporary Staff Anne Bresnock Maria Casillas Max Gallegos Jeremy March Erich Russek-Robbin John Strickland 'I fo i i j i I I i DRAFT REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT THE LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN FOR THE SCA G REGION December 1993 StCft Croft released for public review prior to cormoerCnon for=bon by SLAG Regiond Count. som Affmar MISSION STATEMENT TO ENHANCE THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF ALL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIANS 7� BY WORKING IN r ` 7TNERSHIp WITH ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT, THE BUSINESS SECTOR, AND THE COMMUNITY AT-LARGE TO MEET REGIONAL CHALLENGES AND TO RESOLVE REGIONAL DIFFERENCES. r The re ration o this n rt was financed-'!� P Pa f po financed in parr through groats from the United States Department of Trvnsporradon — Federal Highway Adminisuagion and the United States Department of Transportation — Federal Transit Administration under provisions of the Inte modal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991. ' Additional finandal assistance was provided by the state of California. _ JOUTIIERn CNLIFORMA NIIOCIRTIOn OF GOVERnMEnTJ' 818 West Seventh Street,12th Floor • Los Angeles,California 90017-3435 (213)236-1800 • FAX(213)236-1825 November 22, 1993 Dear Member of the Southern California Community: I would like to present the Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP) and the Draft Regional Mobility Element (RME). These are the latest products of SCAG's continuing efforts to provide a long range plan and decision-making framework for the region. They are intended to help meet the challenges of the region's continuing growth and economic changes. These documents have been prepared by the Staff at SCAG with substantial assistance and input from subregional organizations, County Transportation Commissions, State and federal agencies, other regional organizations, and numerous other public and private parties. They have not been endorsed or approved by any policy body. The SCAG Regional Council will hold extensive public discussion on this Draft Plan prior to its taking any action on the plan during March and April of 1994. The Draft Regional Mobility Element is the latest update of the Regional Transportation Plan required by federal and state law. It responds to the requirements of the Intermodal Surface Transportation r Efficiency Act (ISTEA) and the state and federal Clean Air Acts. It is the basis for more than $24 billion in federal, state and local investments in transportation that will be made over the next seven years. Without the RME, funding would be stopped until the plan is complete and meets all requirements. I encourage you to review these plans carefully. SCAG will be hosting workshops for the public in each of the thirteen subregions during the month of January. Notices will be published in local newspapers, and individual notices will be mailed on request. You are encouraged to attend these, and are also welcome to send in your written comments. The Draft Environmental Impact Report will be released on December 10th, and will be reviewed together with these plans. There are also documents which provide technical support to the individual chapters of the RCP, and which are available upon request. Your comments will be important to SCAG in preparing the final plan documents for adoption, and your contributions will help ensure the kind of participation and support which the plan will need as we face these challenges together. Sincerely, MARK PISANO, Executive Director Enclosure: Draft Regional Mobility Element The Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan is being sent under separate cover. Gaddi Vasquez Orange County-President, Stella Mendoza City of Brawley-First Vice President, Ed Edelman Los Angeles County-Second Vice President, John Longville City of Rialto-Past President • Richard Alarcon City of Los Angeles, Richard Alatorre City of Los Angeles, Robert Bartlett City of Monrovia, George Bass City of Bell, Ronald Bates City of Los Alamitos, George Battey,Jr.City of Burbank, Hal Bernson City of Los Angeles, Walter Bowman City of Cypress, Marvin Braude City of Los Angeles, Susan Brooks City of Rancho Palos Verdes, Art Brown City of Buena Park, Yvonne Brathwaite-Burke Los Ange unty, Jim Busby,Jr.City of Victorville, Bob Buster Riverside County, Laura Chick City of Los Angeles, John City of Newport Beach, Cynthia Crothers City of Moreno Valley, Inver ity of Loma Linda, Richard Dixon City of Lake Forest, Douglas Drummond City of Long Beach, Jerry Ead an Bernardino County, John Ferraro City of Los Angeles, John ura County, Terry Frizzel City of Riverside, Ruth Galanter City of Los Angeles, Sandra Genis City of os Mesa, Jarkie Goldberg City of Los Angeles, Candace Haggard City of San Clemente, Garland Hardeman City of Inglewood, Robert Hargrave City of Lomita, Mike Hernandez City of Los Angeles, Nate Holden City of Los Angeles, Robert Jamison City of Artesia, Jeff Kellogg City of Long Beach, Jim Kelly City of South El Monte, Richard Kelly City of Palm Desert, Bob Kuhn City of Glendora, Abbe Land City of West Hollywood, Darlene McBane City of Agoura Hills, John Melton City of Santa Paula, Barbara Messina City of Alhambra, Judy Mikels City of Simi Valley, David Myers City of Palmdale, Kathryn Neck City of Pasadena, Bev Perry City of Brea, Gwenn Norton-Perry City of Chino Hills, Ronald Parks City of Temecula, Iry Pickkr Ciry of Anaheim, Michael Plisky City of Oxnard, Beatrice Proo City of Pico Rivera, Larry Rhinehart City of Montclair, Dick Riordan City of Los Angeles, Mark Ridley-Thomas City of Los Angeles, AI blest' Off South Gate, Sam Sharp Imperial County, Rudy Svorinich City of Los Angeles, Bob Stone City of Bellflower, Thomas Sykes, Walnut, Jeff Thomas City of Tustin, a r Tull -Pa of Highland, Joel Wachs City of Los Angeles, Rita Walters City of Los Angeles, Evelyn Wells City of Lynwood, aright City of Claremont, Zev Yaroslaysky ity o Los Angeles • 3--C k( OFFHCERS9 COY 21 °L DES AI REGIONAL COUNCIL SCAG Officers President Gaddi Vasquez Supervisor, Orange County First Vice President Stella Mendoza Councilmember, City of Brawley Second Vice President Ed Edelman Supervisor, Los Angeles County General Counsel Colin Leonnard SCAG Management Mark Pisano Executive Director (213) 236-1808 Lou Moret Chief Operating Officer (213) 236-1818 Gil Smith Director, Government and Public Affairs (213) 236-1811 Jim Gosnell Director, Planning and Policy (213) 236-1889 Arnie Sherwood Director, Forecasting Analysis & Monitoring (213) 236-1900 Helene Smookler Director, Legal Services (213) 236-1816 SCAG • Regional Mobilily Element • December, 1993 Page i SCAG Officers, Committees and Management DR4FI DOCUMEA7 REGIONAL COUNCIL MEMBER STANDING COMMITTEES s Administration Bob Bartlett, Monrovia - Chair Susan Brooks, Rancho Palos Verdes Jim Busby, Victorville Doug Drummond, Long Beach Garland Hardeman, Inglewood Dick Kelly, Palm Desert John Longville, Rialto - Vice Chair Judy Mikels, Simi Valley David Myers, Palmdale Bev Perry, Brea Mike Plisky, Oxnard Bea Proo, Pico Rivera Sam Sharp, Imperial County Tom Sykes, Walnut Planning George Bass, Bell Ron Bates, Los Alamitos John Cox, Newport Beach Cynthia Crothers, Moreno Valley Elmer Digneo, Loma Linda Richard Dixon, Lake Forest John Flynn, Ventura County Bob Getts, Chair, Regional Advisory Council Bob Hargrave, Lomita Mike Hernandez,Los Angeles Bob Jamison, Artesia Abbe Land, West Hollywood - Chair Darlene McBane, Agoura Hills Stella Mendoza, Brawley Katie Nack, Pasadena Ron Parks, Temecula - Vice Chair Jeff Thomas, Tustin Laurie Tully-Payne, Highland Rita Walters, Los Angeles Evelyn Wells, Lynwood Judy Wright, Claremont Zev Yaroslaysky, Los Angeles SCAG • Regional Mobility Element a December, 1993 Page ii SCAG Officers, Committees and Management DR4FT DOCUMEA7 Implementation George Battey, Burbank Hal Bernson, Los Angeles - Chair Walt Bowman, Cypress Art Brown, Buena Park Jerry Eaves, San Bernardino County - Vice Chair John Flynn, Ventura County Terry Frizzel, Riverside Candace Haggard, San Clemente Jim Kelly, South El Monte Bob Kuhn, Glendora John Longville, Rialto John Melton, Santa Paula Stella Mendoza, Brawley Barbara Messina, Alhambra Gwenn Norton-Perry, Chino Hills Larry Rhinehart, Montclair Albert Robles, South Gate Bob Stone, Bellflower REGIONAL COUNCIL MEMBER POLICY COMMITTEES Transportation and Communications Committee Jerry Allen, WRCOG Subregion Bob Bartlett, Monrovia George Bass, Bell Ron Bates, Los Alamitos Bob Buster, Riverside County Transportation Commission Louis Byrd, SELAC Subregion John Cox, Newport Beach - Chair Hal Croyts, South Bay Cities Association Subregion Elmer Digneo, Loma Linda - Vice Chair Terry Dipple, SGVAC Subregion ` Doug Drummond, Long Beach Jerry Eaves, San Bernardino County John Flynn, Ventura County Eileen Givens, Arroyo Verdugo Subregion Nancy Grasmehr, Ventura County Transportation Comm. Candace Haggard, San Clemente Garland Hardeman, Inglewood Mike Hernandez, Los Angeles Bob Jamison, Artesia Dick Kelly, Palm Desert Jim Kelly, South El Monte James Ledford, North County Subregion John Longville, Rialto SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page iii SCAG Officers, Committees and Management DRAFT DOCUMEAT Stella Mendoza, Brawley Gwenn Norton-Perry, SANBAG Subregion Ron Parks, Temecula Bea Proo, Pico Rivera Larry Rhinehart, SANBAG Transportation Commission Albert Robles, South Gate Joy Schlendorf, CVAG Subregion Charles V. Smith, Orange County Transportation Authority Tony Tirado, NAG Transportation Commission James Van Loben Sels, Director, CA DOT, CALTRANS Judy Wright, Claremont Ex Officio Non-Voting Member Appointments Molly Bogh, City of Palmdale (PDC) Bill Compton, So. Calif. Edison Company (RAC) Judith Johnston-Weston, Burbank Media TMO (RAC) Hugo Morris, Joint Council of Teamsters #42 (RAC) Energy and Environment Committee Art Brown, Buena Park Bill Cole, IVAG Subregion Lillian Eaton, SANBAG Subregion Joan Feehan, Arroyo Verdugo Subregion Bob Hargrave, Lomita - Vice Chair Bob Kuhn, Glendora Patricia "Corky" Larson, CVAG Subregion Darlene McBane, Agoura Hills John Melton, Santa Paula Judy Mikels, Simi Valley - Chair Shirley Morton, WRCOG Subregion Katie Nack, Pasadena Larry Rhinehart, Montclair Frank Roberts, North County Subregion Sam Sharp, Imperial County Nell Soto, SGVAC Subregion Tom Sykes, Walnut Laurie Tully-Payne, Highland David York, South Bay Cities Association Subregion Ex Officio Non-Voting Member Appointments Gary Morris, CA Regional Water Quality Control Board Diana Palmer, So. Calif. Water Conference (RAC) Glen D. Peterson, MWD (Alt - Norma Arias-Hicks, MWD) Ben Pruett, So. Calif. Gas Company (RAC) Jaime Regalado, Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs (RAC) Nancy Settle, County of Ventura (PDC) SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page iv SCAG Officers, Committees and Management DRAFT DOCUMEAT Charles R. White, California Department of Water Resources (Alternate - Mark Stuart or Vern Knoop) Community, Economic and Human Development George Battey, Jr., Burbank Hal Bernson, Los Angeles Walt Bowman, Cypress Susan Brooks, Rancho Palos Verdes - Vice Chair Jim Busby, Victorville Cynthia Crothers, Moreno Valley Joe Dawidziak, South Bay Cities Association Subregion Richard Dixon, Lake Forest George Fasching, SGVAC Subregion John Flynn, Ventura County Terry Frizzel, Riverside Mark Gran, IVAG Subregion Tom Hunt, CVAG Subregion Harry Knapp, Arroyo Verdugo Subregion Abbe Land, West Hollywood Barbara Messina, Alhambra - Chair Sal Munoz, WRCOG Subregion David Myers, Palmdale Gwenn Norton-Perry, Chino Hills George Pederson, North County Subregion Bev Perry, Brea Mike Plisky, Oxnard Sam Sharp, Imperial County Bob Stone, Bellflower Jeff Thomas, Tustin Marc Titel, SELAC Subregion Alfonso Urias, VCOG Subregion Rita Walters, Los Angeles Evelyn Wells, Lynwood Mal Wessel, SANBAG Subregion Zev Yaroslaysky, Los Angeles Ex Officio Non-Voting Member Appointments Liz Allen, Sierra Club of California (RAC) Jim Browder, The Ethnic Coalition of SC (RAC) Magdalena Duran, National Council of La Raza (RAC) Julie Hemphill, County of San Bernardino (PDC) SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page v 7A3 LE OF .01\\7EN1°0 SCAG OFFICERS, COMMITTEES, AND MANAGEN TENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i CHAPTER ONE: Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-1 CHAPTER TWO: Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-1 CHAPTER THREE: Regional Transportation Demand Management Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-1 CHAPTER FOUR: Regional Transit (Bus and Rail) Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-1 CHAPTER FIVE: Regional Streets and Highways Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-1 CHAPTER SIX: Regional Non-Motorized Transportation Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-1 CHAPTER SEVEN: Regional Goods Movement Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-1 CHAPTER EIGHT: Regional Aviation System Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-1 CHAPTER NINE: Long-Range Corridors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-1 CHAPTER TEN: Financial Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-1 CHAPTER ELEVEN: Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I1-1 CHAPTER TWELVE: Regional Action Program Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-1 CHAPTER THIRTEEN: Socioeconomic Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-1 CHAPTER FOURTEEN: Urban Form and Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-1 SCAG• Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 0 Table of Contents DR,4FI DOCUMENT GLOSSARY OF TERMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . APPENDIX A ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . APPENDIX B LIST OF CHAPTER AUTHORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . APPENDIX C SUBREGIONAL INPUT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . APPENDIX D AMENDMENTS PROCESS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . APPENDIX E ISTEA PLANNING FACTORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . APPENDIX F STATUS OF TSM ACTIONS RECOMMENDED IN THE 1989 RMP . . . . . APPENDIX G SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR RME MODELING ALTERNATIVES FOR 1990 AND 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . APPENDIX H SOCIOECONOMIC FORECAST AND MODELING PAMAMETERS . . . . . . APPENDIX I PROJECT INCLUSION CRITERIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . APPENDIX J SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 0i ..1:.�� . CHAPTER ONE Figure 1-1: SCAG Planning Subregions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-3 CHAPTER TWO Figure 2-1: 1990 E & F Levels of Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-6 Figure 2-2: Proposed Mixed Flow Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-10 Figure 2-3: 1990 Existing and Proposed High-Occupancy Vehicle Lanes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-11 Figure 2-4: 1993 Existing and Proposed Urban & Intercity Rail Lines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-12 Figure 2-5: 1993 Existing and Proposed Commuter Rail Lines . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-13 CHAPTER THREE Figure 3-1(A): Existing Transportation Management Associations (TMAs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-2 Figure 3-1(B): 1993 Existing Transportation Management Associations (TMAs) and Telecommuting Work Centers . . . . . . . . 3-3 Figure 3-2: 1990 Activity Areas for Transportation Demand Management (TDM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-5 Figure 3-3: 2010 Activity Areas for Transportation Demand Management . . . . . 3-6 CHAPTER FOUR Figure 4-1: Revenue Hours . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-2 Figure 4-2: Revenue Miles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-2 Figure 4-3: Los Angeles County Major Municipal Transit Providers . . . . . . . . 4-4 _ Figure 4-4: Significant Regional Transit Providers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-5 Figure 4-5: 1993 Intercounty Bus Routes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-6 Figure 4-6: 1993 Existing and Proposed Commuter Rail Lines . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-7 Figure 4-7: 1993 Existing and Proposed Urban and Intercity Rail Lines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-8 Figure 4-8: 1990 Activity Centers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-17 Figure 4-9: 1990 Activity Centers with Three Mile Radius . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-18 CHAPTER FIVE i Figure 5-1: SCAG Regional Highway System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-6 Figure 5-2: Proposed Mixed Flow Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-17 Figure 5-3: 1990 Existing and Proposed High-Occupancy Vehicle Lanes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-18 Figure 5-4: 1990 Existing and Proposed Ramp Meters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-23 Figure 5-5: 1990 Park-N-Ride Lots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-24 Figure 5-6: 1989 System of Regional Significance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-30 Figure 5-7: 1990 National Highway System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-33 CHAPTER SIX Figure 6-1: 1993 Class One Bicycle Routes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-2 SCAG 0 Regional Mobilin• Element • December, 1993 Lisi o,`Figures DRAFT DOCUMEA7 CHAPTER SEVEN Figure 7-1: 1990 Goods Movement in the Western SCAG Region . . . . . . . . . 7-4 Figure 7-2: 1990 Goods Movement in the Eastern SCAG Region . . . . . . . . . . 7-5 Figure 7-3: 1990 Existing Rail Port Access for Los Angeles/Long Beach . . . . . 7-6 Figure 7-4: 1990 Existing and Demonstration Truck Port Access for Los Angeles/Long Beach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-7 Figure 7-5: 1990 Access for Port Hueneme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-8 Figure 7-6: Markets Served by Different Modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-12 Figure 7-7: Major Issues and Impacts Associated with Goods Transportation . . . 7-14 CHAPTER EIGHT Figure 8-1: 1993 Regional Airport System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8-2 CHAPTER NINE Figure 9-1: Post 2010 Long Range Corridors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9-2 CHAPTER ELEVEN Figure 11-1: 1990 SCAG Region Air Basins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-2 Figure 11-2: 1990 SCAG Region Air Districts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-3 CHAPTER THIRTEEN Figure 13-1: Race/Ethnic Origin 1980 & 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-2 Figure 13-2: Population, Vehicle, & Drivers in the SCAG Region . . . . . . . . . . 13-3 Figure 13-3: Daily Trip Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13-3 SCAG • Regional Mobilin- Element • December, 1993 CHAPTER ONE Table 1-1: Subregions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1-2 CHAPTER TWO Table 2-1: RCP and RME Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-2 Table 2-2: RME Goals and Subgoals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-3 Table 2-3: Federal and State Legally Required Objectives (Performance Targets): Mobility and Air Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-4 Table 2-4: Comparison of 2010 Emission Goals to RME Alternatives' Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-7 Table 2-5: Mix of Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-7 Table 2-6: RME Alternatives Compared for Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-8 Table 2-7: Reasonably Available Funding Criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-9 Table 2-8: Third-Tier Transit System Expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-15 Table 2-9: Market Incentives/Pricing Mechanisms 2-17 Table 2-10: Federal and State Transportation Control Measures Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-23 Table 2-11: 1993 Regional Mobility Element Cost-Revenue Summary 1991-2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2-26 CHAPTER THREE Table 3-1: Implementation of TDM Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-2 Table 3-2: CMP Implementation of TDM Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-10 Table 3-3: Market Incentive Principles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-12 Table 3-4: Subregionally Recommended Implementation Programs . . . . . . . . 3-13 CHAPTER FIVE Table 5-1: Status of the Toll Road Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-4 Table 5-2: Summary of Performance Indicators for 1990 Regional System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-8 Table 5-3: Subregionally Recommended Implementation Program . . . . . . . . . 5-11 Table 5-4: SCAG Region Subarea Input . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-15 Table 5-5: Total Mixed-Flow & HOV Lane Miles Added by County 1990-2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-16 Table 5-6: Proposed Capacity Expansions by Improvement Type 1990-2010 . . . 5-19 Table 5-7: Summary of CMP CIP Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-21 Table 5-8: Intelligent Vehicle Highway System (IVHS) Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-34 Table 5-9: Los Angeles County Potential Smart Street Corridors . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-36 Table 5-10: Orange County Potential Smart Street Corridors . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5-37 CHAPTER SIX Table 6-1: Subregionally Recommended Implementation Program . . . . . . . . . 6-6 SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Lis of Tables DRAFT DOCUMEA7 CHAPTER SEVEN Table 7-1: A Selected Listing of Government Agencies and Their Influence on Goods Movement in the SCAG Region . . . . . . . 7-10 Table 7-2: Markets Served by Different Modes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-11 Table 7-3: Subregionally Recommended Implementation Program . . . . . . . . . 7-16 CHAPTER TEN Table 10-1: 1993 Regional Mobility Element Cost-Revenue Summary 1991 - 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-15 Table 10-2A: 1993 Regional Mobility Element Cost-Revenue Summary Imperial County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-16 Table 10-2B: 1993 Regional Mobility Element Cost-Revenue Summary Los Angeles County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-17 Table 10-2C: 1993 Regional Mobility Element Cost-Revenue Summary Orange County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-18 Table 10-21): 1993 Regional Mobility Element Cost-Revenue Summary Riverside County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-19 Table 10-2E: 1993 Regional Mobility Element Cost-Revenue Summary San Bernardino 10-20 Table 10-2F: 1993 Regional Mobility Element Cost-Revenue Summary Ventura County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-21 CHAPTER ELEVEN Table 11-1: Status of Non-Attainment Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-1 Table 11-2: TCM Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-5 Table 11-3: Federal Reasonably Available TCMs Section 108(f) . . . . . . . . . . . 11-6 Table 11-4: Subregional TCM Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-10 Table 11-5: Existing Principles for Programming of STP and CMAQ Funds Related to TCMs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I1-17 CHAPTER TWELVE Table 12-3: TDM: Short/Long-Range Program (7/20 Year Program) . . . . . . . . 12-1 Table 124A: Short-Range Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-4 Table 124B: Long-Range Bus and Rail Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-6 Table 12-5A: Total Mixed-Flow and HOV Lane Miles Added by County 1990-2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-7 Table 12-5B: Proposed Capacity Expansions by Improvement Type 1990-2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-7 Table 12-5C: Summary of CMP CIP Projects 12-9 Table 12-51): Los Angeles County Potential Smart Street Corridors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-11 Table 12-5E: Orange County Potential Smart Street Corridors . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-12 Table 12-6: Recommended Action Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-13 Table 12-7A: Short-Range Goods Movement Action Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-16 Table 12-7B: Long-Range Goods Movement Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-17 Table 12-8A: Short-Range Aviation Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-18 Table 12-8B: Long-Range Aviation Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-19 Table 12-9A: Short-Range . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-19 SCAG • Regional Mobilitn, Element • December, 1993 List of Tables DRAFT DOCUMENT Table 12-9B: Long-Range . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12-19 Table 12-13A: Recommended Short Term Socio-Economic Actions . . . . . . . . . . . 12-20 Table 12-13B: Recommended Long Term Socio-Economic Actions . . . . . . . . . . . 12-20 SCAG • Regional Mobility• Element • December, 1993 (CF 11k:R ONE: 1WRODUC i ION The Draft Regional Mobility Element (RME) is summarized in chapter four of the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP)'; and it is a stand-alone document that serves as both the federal and state Transportation Plan for the SCAG region. The Draft RME, when formally adopted, will replace the 1989 Regional Mobility Plan (RMP) as the guide for mobility planning for the Southern California region. The RME establishes the goals, objectives (performance targets), policies, and actions to address the region's mobility issues. The planning period is from 1990 to 2010. The RME analysis is based on current demographics, statistics, and computer projections. A modeled alternative for 2015 will be analyzed in the Draft EIR. As part of SCAG's "bottom-up" outreach efforts, special emphasis is placed on securing information on issues of concern to subregions, cities, and counties (For subregional organizations and membership, see Table 1-1, Subregions, and Figure 1-1, SCAG Planning Subregions). The RME is integrally tied to transportation budgeting and actual project implementation via its role in the Regional Transportation Improvement Program (RTIP)process. Projects proposed for the RTIP must formally be deemed to be consistent with the goals, objectives, and other assumptions premised in the Draft RME. In addition to guiding regional transportation decision-makers, the RME will provide a framework for input and comment by the SCAG region on statewide long-range planning, development, operation, and maintenance issues that will be considered in the California Transportation Plan. The RME has been developed through a cooperative planning effort involving county transportation commissions, Caltrans, cities, counties, subregional associations, California Air Resources Board, air districts, public interest groups, and other organizations representing the public. The RME has evolved from the July, 1993 Preliminary Draft Discussion Document, and has had the benefit of on going public review--including workshops,policy and technical committees meetings,written comments, and documents presented by subregional associations. The RME considers computer modeled scenarios for the year 2010. The scenarios are made up of a mix of six strategies: facility development, system management, demand management, urban form, technology, and pricing. • A copy of the complete Draft Regional Comprehensive Plan may be obtained by contacting SLAG. SCAG • Regional Mobiliy Element • December, 1993 Page 1-1 0 Chapter One • Introduction DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 1-1 SUBREGIONS Imperial Valley Association of Governments (IVAG) Imperial County, Brawley, Calexico Cali atria. El Centro Holtville imperial, Westmoreland, Coachella Valley Association of Governments (CVAG) County of Riverside, Blvthe, Cathedral City, Coachella, Desert Hot Springs, Indioo, Indian Wells, La Quinta, Palm s Desert Palm Springs, Rancho Mirage Western Riverside Council of Governments (WRCOG) Riverside County, Banning Beaumont, Calimesa, Canyon Lake, Corona, Hemet, Lake Elsinore, Moreno Valley, Murrieta Norco Perris Riverside San Jacinto Temecula San Bernardino Association of Governments (SANBAG) San Bernardino County, Adelanto, Apple Valley, Barstow, Big Bear Lake, Chino, Chino Hills, Colton, Fontana, Grand Terrace, Hesperia, Highland, Loma Linda, Montclair, Needles,Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga,Redlands, Rialto, San Bernardino,Twentv Nine Palms Upland, Vietorville Yucca Valley, Yucaipa Orange County Orange County, Anaheim, Brea, Buena Park, Costa Mesa, Cypress,Dana Point, Fountain Valley, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Laguna Beach,Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, La Habra, Lake Forest, La Palma, Los Alamitos, Mission Viejo, Newport Beach,Orange., Placentia, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano,Santa Ana, Seal Beach Stanton Tustin Villa Park Westminster Yorba Linda Southeast Los Angeles County (SELAC) Los Angeles County, Artesia, Bell, Bellflower, Bell Gardens, Cerritos, Commerce, Compton, Cudahy,Downey, Hawaiian Gardens, Hungtington Park, Lakewood, La Habra Heights, La Mirada, Long Beach, Lynwood, Maywood, Montebello Norwalk Paramount Pico Rivera Santa Fe Springs, Signal Hill South Gate Vernon Whittier San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities Los Angeles County, Alhambra, Arcadia, Azusa,Baldwin Park, Bradbury, Claremont, Covina, Diamond Bar, Duarte, El Monte, Glendora, Industry, Irwindale, La Puente, Laverne, Monrovia, Monterey Park, Pasadena,Pomona, Rosemead San Dimas San Gabriel San Marino Sierra Madre South El Monte Temple City, Walnut West Covina South Bay Cities Association City of Los Angeles, Carson, El Segundo, Gardena, Hawthorne,Hermosa Beach, In:'.ewood, Lawndale, Lomita, Manhattan Beach, Palos Verdes Estates, Rancho Palo Verdes, Redondo Beach, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates, Torrance Westside Cities Los Angeles County, Beverly Hills Culver City, Santa Monica West Hollywood City of Los Angeles Los Angeles County, City of Los Angeles Ventura Council of Governments Ventura County, Agoura Hills, Camarillo, Fillmore, Moorpark, Ojai, Oxnard, Port Hueneme,San Buena Ventura, Santa Clarita Santa Paula Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks Westlake Village Arroyo Verdugo Burbank Glendale La Canada Flinrrid a Pasadena South Pasadena North Los Angeles County Countv of Los Angeles, Lancaster Palmdale Santa Clarita, SCAG • Regional Mobility Element 0 December, 1993 Page 1-2 � I jai it N j � II ill j - I� I) LLr i � I o . I U � I o � c Q U Z O U t aNi E LU U c i Z U) i J coo m � Z U— i C � -j N Z Z Q � ; w c°n w < c) 2 ID i JWW i C'3mCC Q Cn 0) U 1 0 Chapter One 0 Introduction DRAFT DOCUMENT Major issues confronting the RME include: • A projected $5 billion shortfall over the 2010 planning period. • Extensive concern that even if funding questions are resolved, federally mandated air quality standards will not be reached without aggressive use of advanced technologies and new market incentives. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 1-4 i Charter Two • Executive Summan: Goals, Obiectires, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMF%7 TABLE 2-2 RME GOALS AND SUBGOALS SUSTAIN MOBILITY • Sustain or better the 1990 levels of service for the movement of people and goods. • Ensure that transportation investment provides for the greatest possible mobility benefit. • Serve the transportation needs of everyone including the elderly, handicapped, disadvantaged and transit-dependent. • Dc clop regional transportation solutions that complement subregional transportation systems and serve the needs of cities and communities. RME St3BCrOAi 5 Foster Economic Vitality Enhance the Reduce Energy Promote Promote Fair and Equitable Environment Consumption Transportation- Access Development • Promote transportation • Support • Support • Encourage land- • Improve access to the strategies that support and transportation transportation stra- use development regional rail and bus encourage economic vitality strategies that tegies and patterns that transit and high within the region, and minimize impacts investment that complement occupancy vehicle assist in developing the on the environment. decrease the transportation systems for subregions, Southern California region's investments. cities, and neighborhoods economic base. dependence on as well as households of traditional fossil different incomes, race, fuels. and ethnicity • Promote transportation • Support • Support the • Foster land-use • Improve access to strategies that reduce public transportation development of decisions that effective goods movement and private costs, and policies and actions alternative fuels encourage for households and enhance the region's to meet state and technologies for alternatives to the businesses in different competitive position. federal air quality region's vehicles. auto. pans of the region. goals and objectives. • Support transportation • Support new • Encourage non- • Promote • Improve access to existing activities that encourage technologies that motorized trips. telecommuting in- and new communications production of goods and improve air quality, frastructure and technology for services for local mobility, and the work policies. transportation systems, consumption as weil as for economy. transportation vehicles, export to other regions. households, and work places in different parts of there ion. • Ensure that the region • Promote 3rd tier • Promote policies and receives the maximum transit, smart procedures that ensure amount of federal, state, shuttles including fair and mutually and private transportation shared taxis, supportive decisions for employment these funds funding and the jitneys, dial-a- allocating public and ride, etc. to act as private funds for hnng with them. feeder services to transportation in different rail transit and to parts of the region. link transit centers and activity arras. OBJECTIVES (PERFORMANCE TARGETS) AND CONFORMITY Federal and state statutes contain mandated performance targets that are used to measure the effectiveness of the RME and air quality plans for air basins in the SCAG region (See Table 2-3 for the performance targets). SCAG • Regional Mobility• Element • December 1993 Page 2-3 Chapter Two • Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUME'AT In addition to objectives required by law, as a matter of policy, the RME proposes a performance target range of a 10 to 14 percent transit mode split for Home to Work trips for the year 2010. Finally, both the RME and the RTIP, which is based on the RME, • must meet a federal conformity test. Under this federal requirement, SCAG must evaluate all transportation projects proposed in the RTIP and make a finding that the projects are consistent and in conformance with the State Implementation Plan (SIP) for the applicable air basin. Projects or activities that do not conform may be subject to the withholding of federal funding or permits.' Conformity procedures that reflect the needs of each air basin are being developed pursuant to new federal rules released in November, 1993. A conformity determination on this draft plan must be made prior to the adoption by the Regional Council. TABLE 2-3 FEDERAL AND STATE LEGALLY REQUIRED OBJECTIVES (PERFORMANCE TARGETS): MOBILITY AND AIR QUALITY ( Federal Requirements • Contribute to an increase in peak period Average Vehicle Ridership §75 Raby lar B)employers with 100 or more employees. — 42 U.S.C. • Offset with Transportation Control Measures(TCMs)the growth of emissions due to an increase in vehicle trips and Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). — U.S.C. §7511a(d)(1) • Meet emission budget requirements for mobile sources as determined by final State implementation Plan/Federal implementation Plan. State Requirements • Achieve an avenge vehicle occupancy of 1.5 persons per vehicle during commuter peak period hours by 1999 in severe and extreme non-attainment areas. — Cal.Health and Safety Code 40920(a)(2) • Achieve a substantial decrease in the growth of passenger vehicle tops and VMT in serious, severe,and extreme non-attamment areas. — Cal. Health and Safety Code 40919(a)(3) • California Air Resources Board recommends that air districts "... design plans that reduce VMT and trips growth rates to the maximum degree feasible, and which, at a minimum, decrease growth of VMT and trips to the rate of population or household rowth."3 • Allow no net increase in mobile source emissions after 1997 in severe and extreme non-attainment areas. — Cal. Health and Safety Code 40920(a) 2 • Meet emission budget requirements for mobile sources as determined by final State Implementation Plan/Federal implementation Plan. 2 42 U.S.C. §7506(c).,43 U.S.C. §176(3)(c). CARB California Clean Air Act Transporution Guidance,Transportation Standards,May 1991,Page 3. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-4 y= °� L � ��o EXECUTIVE SL��IlVIARY: GOALS, OBJECTIVES, STRATEGIES AND FINANCE INTRODUCTION The RME provides a flexible framework for the discussion and resolution of transportation planning issues expected to confront the SCAG region through the year 2010. The economic vitality of Southern California and the individual jobs of millions of workers are dependent on a successful metropolitan transportation system that moves people and goods. This transportation system must be affordable, and must provide for equitable access throughout the region for all people, regardless of income; and for all businesses, both small and large. Furthermore, the metropolitan transportation system must conveniently link neighborhoods to nations, subregions to regions, and everything in between. It needs to serve economic, social, and recreational needs of the region. During the next 20 years, if the transportation system is to successfully move people and goods, the region must develop innovative strategies that build on and maximize huge public investments already spent or committed to highways, rail, bus, airports, seaports, and communications technologies. This system must efficiently combine highways, transit, ports, airports, and the proposed high speed rail along the Coastal and the California High Speed Corridors.' Several key factors differentiate the RME from past transportation plans. Foremost, is concern for the economy, and for this reason, the RME treats transportation as a powerful job creation engine and as a tool to reduce transportation costs. Another major change impacting the RME is SCAG's decision-making structure, which now involves more elected representatives from a more diverse geographic base. The 20 plus member Executive Committee has expanded to a 70- member Regional Council. In addition, as part of the new "bottom- up" decision-making process, 13 subregional groups are formally participating in the development of the regional plan and its subregional parts. Also involved are county transportation commissions, Caltrans, transit operators, air districts, California Air Resources Board, public interest organizations, and citizens at large. SCR created and funded the California High Speed Rail Commission. Additional funding for high speed nil is budgeted pursuant to Propositions 108 and 116. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-1 Chapter Two • Executive Summary: GoaLs, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMEA7 The passage of the federal 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) has brought about a significant number of new RME requirements and added responsibilities for SLAG. Finally, the federal Clean Air Act (CAA), California Clean Air Act (CCAA), and Lewis-Presley Air Quality Management Act present additional require- ments that the RME must consider, including specific performance targets and plan conformity. RCP AND RME GOALS The RME must address specific mandated state and federal issues. But in terms of outreach, public comment, and review by SCAG committees, the goal selection process is the same for both the RME and the RCP. For this reason, the locally developed goals for both documents are almost identical in content. Actual language is slightly different as is to be expected. Table 2-1 briefly lists the RME goals and how they compare with the RCP goals. Table 2-2 represents the efforts of the public, professional planners, subregions, government agencies, and SCAG's committees to refine and detail exactly what the RME goals mean to the SCAG region. TABLE 2-1 RCP AND RME GOALS RCP RME • Sustain Mobility (Overall Goal Consistent With 5 Sub oals) • Raise Standard of Living O Foster Economic Vitality • Healthy and O Enhance the Environmentally Sound Environment Qualitv of Life o Reduce Energy Consumption o Promote Transportation- Friendly Development Patterns • Equity O Promote Farr and Equitable Access SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 9-2 0 Chapter Two • Executive Summan: GoaLs, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMEA7 REGIONAL MOBILITY STRATEGY There are no magic bullets or easy strategies that the region may employ to achieve the RME goals for mobility or the equally important environmental and economic improvements called for in the RME's subgoals (See Figure 2-1, 1990 E&F Levels of Service). There are, however, very serious federal and state mandates that require the region to meet these goals or face severe sanctions. And, despite impressive rail system improvements and other transportation investments that will cost additional billions of dollars to implement, the region, according to SCAG's computer modeling projections, may not meet all its mandated mobility and air quality requirements for 2010. The RME has modeled five scenarios for 2010 based on a mix of transportation strategies or approaches. (See Table 2-5, Mix Of Strategies and Table 2-6, RME Alternatives Compared for Performance). Unfortunately, none of the modeled scenarios meets all the federal and state mobility/air quality requirements for 2010 (Socioeconomic and modeling parameters are illustrated in appendix I). The Regional Council, with input from the public must review scenarios and strategy mixes, then select a transportation scenario for the region. The selection of a scenario and strategy mix will need to satisfy multiple requirements contained in federal and state transportation laws and federal and state environmental laws. Two primary forces will be the financial constraints (See financial section, RME Chapter .10) and "emission budget" requirements found in these laws (See Table 2-4, Comparison of 2010 Emission Goals to RME Alternatives' Emissions). The mobility element must be within an "emissions budget" for the respective air basin plans. These budgets have not been set yet and are only finalized when the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approves an air plan for each applicable air basin. Table 2-4 also presents data for the South Coast and Ventura County from the workshops on the impending Federal Implementation Plans (FIP) for these two air basins and the alternatives this plan is considering. None of the alternatives, by themselves, achieve the level of emissions envisioned in the federal plans. Nor do they achieve the same level of emissions called for in the 89/91 plan for the South Coast Basin. The following is a discussion of two of the alternative scenarios which appear to present the best approach to meeting the requirements the region has: The Constrained Project and an " Innovative Project Series." The latter presents additive programs that would allow the region to increase transit ridership and to provide additional incentives to reduce vehicle miles traveled and/or reduce emissions from on-road vehicles. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-5 e) '00 ON108VNU3814VS CC 3OlSW3AJU f Icr) w m I a: U N I / I C7 a Q ,�� I LL 4 Z I Q �. =I _ f a _ W R I r rn , m O Z I Col Q R' R w cf) O a W �m z � Q U) W z w W 0 YI Z _ CC I w � , CD I C/) � J W w I w cn cn rc > c `o U w c') I W > > Q r` w J J J do L�L( J W U- Q W s '03 VWVBWv mows cn � � IT 8 Chapter Two • Executive Summan': Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMEAT The issue is how the region wants to adjust its transportation behavior and investments as it balances the constraints of money, environmental objectives and mobility choices. The final plan must be within financial and emission budget limits. TABLE 2-4 COMPARISON OF 2010 EMISSION GOALS TO RME ALTERNATIVES' EMISSIONS Preliminary FIP data for on-road vehicles VOC NOx CO (estimated emissions budget for attainment). South Coast Air 41" 96" 387' Basin Ventura County 11 9` N/A Current Local Plans 96 216 1559 Constrained Project 94 213 1526 Innovative Series Depends on mix of strategies Estimated from the 1991 Air Quality Management Plan **Based on EPA FIP data for passenger vehicles; does not provide full credit for ARB end of tailpipe controls. Note: For illustration-actual emission budgets will change depending on the festal emission reduction strategy TABLE 2-5 MIX OF STRATEGIES Computer modeled scenarios for meeting the transportation goals and reaut rement of 2010 are made up of the followin "mix of strategies": • Facilities (mixed-flow freeway and highways, High-Occupancy-Vehicle freeway and arterial lanes and transit). • Transportation System Management (ramp metering, signal improvement). • Transportation Demand Management (employer based trip reduction, telecommunications romotion of walking and cvclin . • Urban Form (integrated design of land use and transportation projects; growth management, Job/housing balance policy). • Technology (Mobility: "smart streets" with equipment to adjust intersection signals based on the volume of traffic. Air Quality: low and zero emission vehicles). • Market Incentives/Pricing (parking fees, toll roads, congestion ptLn 1. SCAG • Rrvinnnl MnhihA, Flrminy • t)ir~h— 1002 NM �� Ui--ac� < g r N L7 d J tf� T � �U. iC3 L7 Z a c � c p Q Oy W E� � Z ACC °a a � CD CL my c d �LL O L C > O y,E cLL 7 E ,�> I U° w o ..o <n— E� m0 c Zw p c° v ac in oa a < c X1-0 - -CC a< v L) r< o.E o ai m E o co 9 ��I N cn = od UwCDLL >— owl d V LU Z � W m E m w" -�c� fO o >_ O °cam -->, C,, 0 oc ac ~C7 a, � O ~ Z U a Q Q O d N m N m c` o c > a/ Z FW- DmHMF o�Z oL y o W M>Z m M do 1 NW ¢ + — O NN u ti O C r OhOOa = p0 = /W� N V -'� =n m c <c us a a? u� 3° e O r =' �.i `W` Q i C 1_ d 6�1 Ol �— N ♦ o O O N � G Q / m N r �r r c d H d + I >d O o W C/) Q W — �W Z V cQtA Ty m .� a d O e 01 e Q m�Z~ d C p A N g e N m O N � O H ¢ v C H N 0,5 ^ N ^ t Z 0 LU a � . F- Q LU F- o _ «9 a m o m o m W < Z m H v� co v Cl) ^° � _ cc rn CC U Q = C N < N Q O� lA cc 0 U LL w c^ rt G CN C C N o, 4 r_ to s W cm r o o m f cu E Q J a O G U N N '� -W �O = O N n IQ N F- am ¢ w C C N m I u O c m cn I = I v co� "C' ^ T m D. X cn cn co e Q of cn Q co t Q w Lj I � I C`CCC Q G� mm- z� fifi#Q# p_O O_p O co �_ ~tz Y � r r - cc at + 0 U Sfl Chapter Two • Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT CONSTRAINED PROJECT For the purposes of the RME, the Constrained Project consists of projects and programs that are either being implemented today, or have been budgeted` and will be built or underway before 2010 (See Figures 2-2 to 2-5). Local commitment to long term or "reasonably available" funding is a major new test now imposed on mobility planning under federal ISTEA regulations (See Table 2-7 Reasonably Available Funding Criteria; Project Inclusion Criteria are illustrated in Appendix J). The Constrained Project also includes the following: • An expanded parking cash out program that is expected to have a positive impact on mobility and air quality. • Improved local feeder system consisting of shared taxis, jitneys, and shuttles to support line haul rail by making rail transit more accessible. In this Draft RME, the Constrained Project comes close but does not meet the requirement of reasonably available funding — an issue that must be resolved prior to final RME adoption in the first quarter of 1994. Of equal concern, based on SGAG's computer modeling, the alternative's proposed system improvements provide at best a 1.46 Average Vehicle Ridership (AVR), which does not meet the state required 1.5 AVR for all peak period trips by the year 2010. There are other state and federal mandates that are not met by this constrained alternative. Failure to meet federal mobility and air quality mandates could subject the RME to possible EPA sanctions or lawsuits that could freeze federal funding for the region. TABLE 2-7 REASONABLY AVAILABLE FUNDING CRITERIA • Has the proposed implementing agcncy(local, regional, state or federal Ernor private organization)taken a formal action by the time of Plan adoption to authorize the funding source? • Is there a historical trend that resources of this type are usually approved by the public or their representatives? • Have private sector organizations(such as the Chamber of Commerce,trade organizations,businesses,private task forces, etc.) shown support(e.g. policy, action, education) for the proposed funding mechanism? • Has the state or federal government taken action required as a prerequisite or condition for enabling the resource b the time of Plan adoption? To be considered"reasonably available," each of the criteria must be answered YES or NOT APPLICABLE. Criteria will be interpreted broadly. The specific funding source, along with the analysis,will be brougght forward through the SCAG committee process for discussion and a roval.s ' Funded pursuant to 1993-1999 RTIP updated July 1993 ' Funding criteria approved August 1993 by SLAG Transportation and Communications Committee. SCAG • Regional Mobiht%, Element • December 1993 Pape 2-9 'OO ON108VN6313 NVS '0 301Sb3AIb th N � N O N N Q 0 uj t o \ '00 00310 N dS r / W I ' / Q W I m zz FI w t _ a LLJ I A i Q p U W I f (n Ua6 LU t •• I uj Z = O 0 U J - - F- p0U- _ € i W CC " 0 3 0 A > 1 C E a � 0 O CC x x E O N LJL I _ a) o a / `� U) .- = >CL ! a m X _ a S > C N a Q .0 I F- C O Cl x Q) Q O Q O L _ w - N 0� „ o:)wruHan m 3 m z i '00 ONICNb'N638 NVS O_3CISH3/uki ' w C7 N p ! � w ll {y I / i > o % r Q as / J Q � i ' m , ' 0 Z IN QLL $ _ w i R F i C/) l _ LV - U) W Q W 0 Luz ( J a OJ o� O - p CL W wl J D crU � 0 c w ct Z> C) C 1 C r O 7 ! (�U N a o _Z G_ O E o _ _I 1 a F— ��i d Cl)� x ) c XU( , %� c oa O ea H Q J O O O Op,2 WU cl W = O !n c O �ti p z �p O �•1� .-I Z Ch �//��, , w W / j� / w C N N _� j. � VJ� ( > X C Q V p T LU p O Q N U 0 C. o '00 VWrUN3A Z '00 ONIptlVNu38 NVS '00 301Stl3AIW / m _ � O - ^N W N N 0 0 �; Z / (� LL 0. cc / � W o W z m O s I W i 5 VJ l I Jam' s LU y Ir V 1 Q i saw O O (n W U) z �LU o i LL 1 I..L f► t H CC Cc M 1 l0 E VW I I J Q ICC � lC t0 l0 Q Q C C C C 1 �^ I 1� ♦ v/ W -2 O lC C CO / LJJ Q =� X oo VbVSWB ViNVS _l Q N t W Q L C =_ � w a w oUa /Y) K v.; 1 I 0 r I 4 '00 ONIMMU3e NVS 00 30ISH3AIb Cl) X� \ / c p O i w0 \� a / 1 Z i C 0 LL. ► o 0 v `/ 0 W l - z z U) r 4 I o 'LLJ f ui LLJ4 ' Z 4 Y � 4 0 I W u cc Y 1 O W z CL J I CC Q `o t Z p w ac CC Q Cl rm c ✓. is Q d ZI w ,,� � Q � I Q M E E Z E� o o C) 10 )00 vdvetive v1NVS � U L X w C Q W D Q V w a cnn <a 0) T � - C Chapter Two • Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT INNOVATIVE PROJECT SERIES To better meet air quality and mobility requirements and avoid federal sanctions, the RME also proposes an alternative to the Constrained Project, featuring a mix of strategies or innovative steps. This alternative is referred to as the "Innovative Project Series." More than a stand-alone alternative project, the Innovative Project Series focuses on advanced technology and pricing options that may be implemented in either a limited or aggressive fashion. The public and regional decision-makers will be able to weigh and adopt all, parts, or various strategy mixes, that make up the Innovative Project Series. The Innovative Project Series builds on the Constrained Project by prudently expanding projects and programs using reasonably available funds plus innovative public and private funding sources. (Under ISTEA, projected revenue sources, beyond those already identified in the Constrained Project may be used to fund the Innovative Project Series, provided specific strategies are identified to ensure availability of projected revenues). The Innovative Project Series, in its basic configuration generates a 1.49 AVR and of all the alternatives comes the closest to meeting the state required 1.5 AVR for all peak period trips. Using advanced technology or market pricing or some combination of both strategies, the Innovative Project Series presents decision-makers with perhaps the only opportunity to meet mobility and air quality requirements for 2010. The "basic" core of the Innovative Project Series calls for: • Additional Metrolink service including improved headways and reverse commute runs. • Additional express bus service, particularly in Orange County. • Signal system improvements resulting in bus priority on key arterials in Los Angeles County. • Additional HOV lanes on the 118 and 23 freeways in Ventura County and the 101 Freeway in Los Angeles County. • Trip.reductions from increases in telecommuting and from expansion of walking and non-motorized trips. • Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS)/Advanced Transportation Management System (ATMS) technologies are planned to increase freeway capacity by 10 percent and arterial capacity by 5 percent. • Limited pricing strategy, based on increased parking charges produces a 1.5 AVR for all peak period commute trips. The basic core also significantly expands shared taxis, shuttles and jitneys to serve all major activity centers. This builds on the feeder service to line haul transit centers already called out in the Constrained Project. This expansion of the " third tier" of transit is proposed because the constrained project is focusing mostly on tiers SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-14 Chapter Two • Executive Summan•: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT one and two of transit systems. Tier one is the longer distance line haul service like Metrolink, some express bus services and other longer distance rail services. The second tier is the support bus and paratransit service that provides service to connect to the tier one service or medium distance services and can connect communities. The third tier is localized, short trip service that is more community oriented. This can also provide service to the local rail station. The average trip length on the current transit system is about four miles. The average trip length in the region is currently eight miles (See Table 2-8, Three-tier Transit System Expansion, for a full discussion on use of shared taxis,jitneys, and advanced technology smart shuttles). TABLE 2-8 THIRD-TIER TRANSIT SYSTEM EXTANSION Third-tier Transit System Expansion • The"Third-tier Transit's concept was analyzed by the Urban Innovations Group(U1G)in connection with a SLAG funded analvsis entitled "Regional Urban Form Study". The study suggests that land use strategies that call for concentrating growth at transit stations will byy themselves not meet regional air and mobility goals. According to UIG, concentrating growth at rail stations will increase the modal split for transit in the home-to-work market above the trendline projections,but may result in localized congestion that offsets advances in mobility and air Quality. SCAG's own computer modeling tinder the Urban Form Alternative substantially corroborates the UlG observations. The UIG study then premises and models a multi-tiered, flexible response transportation system that maximizes and supports current and planned tail transit projects.This model generates a modal split that falls in the 15-25% range. • The Innovative Project Series, features a range of third-tier transit services starting with share taxis, shuttles, 'itneys and progressing to advanced technology "zero emission smart shuttles" that can be computer routed for short speedy trips. This would augment local services already being provided. • Concept takes advantage of fact that most trips average eight miles. Small vehicles arc well suited to the short trip market and the hard to serve medium trip market. • It is envisioned that the smart shuttle would be primarily privately operated under public policy management and oversight. • Concept builds on and accrues the advantages of urban form strategies which reduce motorized trips by placing goods, services,and other activities all within a short walking trip of home and work. • Concept has numerous potential benefits including modal shifts in the non- home-to-work travel market: reduced public expenditures because third tier transit is all or partially privately financed; and sustainable employment and economic development opportunities. Long-term jobs will be created in regional manufacturing of uttles as well as in entry and mid level work opportunities in driving, operations and maintenance. Overall, Third-tier transit could become part of a sustainable regional manufacturing base producing high tech products for both local consumption and global export. ` Regional Urban Form Study,Urban Innovations Group, August 9,1993 SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-15 Chapter Two • Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMEAT Innovative Project Series - Aggressive Use of Advanced Technology: According to Urban Innovations Group (UIG) modeling analysis, adding computerized or smart shuttles to the strategy mix for the Innovative Project Series would maximize the third-tier of the system already specified in the base core of this alternative. Such a responsive, extensive transit service would provide a home-to-work modal split in the 15 percent to 25 percent range. Aggressive implementation of all three tiers of the Transit system beyond the level in the basic innovative option would allow the region to meet state and federal mobility and air quality mandates. This probably cannot be achieved with the present financial resources available to the region and/or current investments being made on transportation. The operating assistance to maintain and operate the existing and planned system is rapidly using up the region's financial flexibility. The SCAG advanced Transportation Technology Task Force is developing specific recommendations in the utilization of this concept and will make recommendations to the Regional Council for plan adoption. Innovative Project Series - Aggressive use of Market Incentives/Pricing Mechanisms: Year 2010 VMT reductions of almost 12 percent over baseline have been modeled by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) for the Southern California region using an aggressive package of market incentives.' A similarly modeled package of innovative market incentives for the San Francisco Bay area also produced 12 percent reductions in VMT for the same time period'. SCAG sensitivity runs, which considered pricing assumptions for auto operations, transit, and parking that were similar, though distinctly different to those used in the EDF and San Francisco studies, reported significant improvements in mode splits. However, the SCAG model runs for market incentives' most dramatic finding was that when proceeds from market incentives are re-invested in transportation service enhancements such as reduced headways, the mobility indicators are more than doubled. Or to put it another way, the same transportation improvements can be obtained with considerably less costly pricing mechanisms if income is reinvested in service improvements. (See Table 2-9, Market Incentives/Pricing Mechanisms). ' Transportation Efficiency:Tackling Southern California's Air Pollution and Congestion, Michael Cameron, March 1991, Environmental Defense Fund, Regional Institute of Southern California. s Harvey,Greig,Pricing and Travel Behavior,June 15, 1993. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-16 Chapter Two • Executive S'umman: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT Aggressive implementation of a market incentive program would allow the region to meet state and federal mobility and air quality mandates. Long-term Market Incentives/Pricing Mechanisms strategies currently being examined under the Innovative Project Series include accelerated parking cash out, peak-hour congestion pricing, emissions charges for gross polluters, and emissions fees based on emissions per mile. The Market Incentives Task Force will make specific recommendations on the use of market incentives to the Regional Council for inclusion in the adopted plan. TABLE 2-9 MARKET INCENTIVES/PRICING MECHANISMS ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE SCAG SENSITIVITY BAY AREA FUND/RISC STUDY RUN,PACKAGE 5, PRICING MARCH 1991 1993 DISCUSSION STUDY DOCUMENT JUNE 15 1993 Strategy Pricing Level Pricing Level Pricing Level Regional 53.00/day/vehicle SO.10 per Congestion mile Pricing Regional 52.25/day/vehicle 53.00 per day minimum 53.00 per Employee or current levels if higher day Parking 10 minute Bus Service minimum & Charge higher where (transit = S'h) already higher free transit Regional Non- 50.30/day Arterial HOV Lanes $ 0.01 per Employee $0.60 per hour minute Parking Charge (53.00 per day maximum VMT/Smog- 5110/year 50.05 per mile average 5125 Based per vehicle Registration Gasoline Tax 51.00 per gallon 52.00 per Increase gallon SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-17 Chapter Two • Executive Summarv. Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE SCAG SENSITIVITY BAY AREA FUNDIRISC STUDY RUN, PACKAGE 5, PRICING MARCH 1991 1993 DISCUSSION STUDY DOCUMENT JUNE 15 1993 Strategy Pricing Level Pricing Level Pricing Level Net Impacts 12 % 4 i VMT Vehicle Trips (VT) 1987 Reduced 014.8% 1 • 10% l for Home-to- in Work VMT • 9.5% 4for •15.9% 4 Non-Home-to-Work in VTrips 2010 •11.6% 1 in VMT •12.0% l in nn 2s_ Note: Modeling methodologies,assumptions,and 2010 population projections vary tly from one study to another. LISTING OF ALL MODELED ALTERNATIVES 1989 RMP Adopted Plan (No Project For The EIR): Though it would not meet current funding requirements, this alternative until revised or replaced continues as the adopted plan for mobility for the SCAG region and the adopted TCM in the 1991 air plan for the SCAB. This alternative reflects the impacts of new (higher) socioeconomic data forecasts, with the assumption of a distribution representing jobs/housing balance. Some of the projects and programs can be funded (constrained) and some cannot (unconstrained). Baseline #1: This scenario represents the "No-Build" Project, as it includes only those transportation improvements currently under construction or fully environmentally cleared, but includes no mixed- flow highway improvements per an agreement with SCAG and the California Air Resources Board (ARB) in the board's conditional approval of the 1991 Air Quality Plan for the SCAB. Projects and programs currently programmed for implementation by the year 2010 by the County Transportation Commissions and Caltrans, as of July, 1993, are included in this scenario. The alternative is based on existing funding, which is within the criteria for reasonably available funding. Current Local Plans: Projects and programs currently programmed for implementation by the year 2010 by the County Transportation Commission and Caltrans, as of July 1993, are included in this SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-18 Chapter Two • Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT scenario. The alternative is based on existing funding, which is within the criteria for reasonably available funding. Constrained Project (The RME Project For The EIR): This scenario is similar to Current Local Plans, in terms of the physical improvements included, but includes minor policy changes aimed at encouraging alternative modes of transportation, such as Katz parking cash-out program and the federal energy act. It includes only those programs that are likely to be fundable based on reasonably available funding. Innovative Project Series: This scenario builds upon the Current Local Plans and the Constrained Project by adding a prudent number of improvements, based on reasonably available funds plus innovative funding sources, and emphasis on pricing strategies and technology to achieve the 1.5 AVR objective for all peak period trips. Also included are optional advanced technology and market incentives/pricing mechanisms which may be added to the basic core of this alternative. Urban Form Alternative: This scenario looks at the impact of a revised land use distribution with the transportation improvements included in the Current Local Plans alternative. The urban form distribution included in this model run concentrated higher density development around rail stations. REGIONAL AVIATION SYSTEM PROGRAM SUMMARY (RME CHAPTER EIGHT) The SCAG region contains the largest system of airports in the world. There are 56 public-use civilian airports and 10 other military air installations, two of which have been marked for closure by the Department of Defense and one that will be realigned and downsized. One other military airbase is under study for military/civilian joint- use. In 1991, the region's commercial airport system served 61.8 million annual passengers and 1.5 million tons of air cargo. Most of this demand was served by five urban-area commercial airports. These airports include Los Angeles International, Ontario International, John Wayne, Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena, and Long Beach. Other commercial service airports serving the region include Oxnard, William J. Fox, Palmdale, Palm Springs and Imperial County. While the SCAG region is first in aviation activity compared to any other region in the world, it has been beset by an expected shortfall in commercial airport capacity after the year 2000. This shortfall was expected because existing commercial airports were limited below physical capacity due to policy constraints resulting from SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-19 Chapter Two • Executive Summary Gm Ls, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT environmental impacts. A strategy was followed to increase capacity by identifying new airport sites, or modal substitutes such as high- speed rail. These efforts were successful in identifying potential new airport sites, but unsuccessful in finding sites that were technically feasible and acceptable to local communities. In light of the announced military airbases closures, airport capacity shortfall may be significantly mitigated. The currently emerging strategy is for the military airbases and a site in the Long Beach Harbor to compete for market share. An evaluation of the potential market share of each airbase is currently being conducted by SCAG. Commercial airport ground access is another major concern. As airports reach their physical capacity, access infrastructure will become increasingly congested. While additional facilities may be needed, these must be balanced with inter-modal and multi-modal access strategies. Ground transportation modeling and analysis will be conducted for all five urban-area commercial airports to achieve the latter. The general aviation system is under increasing budgetary pressures as local governments experience the effects of recession. This is occurring during a period when the roles of general aviation airports are changing from recreational uses to more support for business, government uses and emergency response. A study of these trends is underway. Another major concern is the strategic role of the aviation system in contributing to the economic recovery of the region and future economic development, particularly in relation to international trade. New international relationships, new technology, and new aviation capabilities need to be assessed to determine the best direction for the region. REGIONAL, GOODS MOVEMENT PROGRAM SUMMARY (RME CHAPTER SEVEN) Goods movement in the SCAG region is critically linked to the local economy and has significant impact on mobility, the environment, quality of life, and land use. Foreign trade makes up a major part of regional goods movement and has emerged as a major sector in the region's economic base. The volume of merchandise traded through the Los Angeles Customs District has grown from $6.2 billion in 1972 to $121.8 billion in 1992. Total trade, imports and exports combined, on the region's rail and highway systems has increased by 16 percent per year. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-20 Chapter Two • Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT In terms of employment, the U.S. Department of Commerce computes that for every additional $1 billion of U.S. exports, 19,000 jobs are created through: • Increased demand for manufactured goods. • Increased goods delivery which supports thousands of jobs in the trucking, wholesale trade, railroad, shipping and air cargo industries • Increased service support for business travelers which means more jobs in the hotel, travel, and restaurant industries. Few improvements to the region can have as great and beneficial impact as enhancement of goods movement. Clearly such improvements help the region sustain mobility which is the principal goal of the RME. Equally importantly, betterment of the goods movement system helps raise the standard of living for a significant portion of the region's work force. Creating more jobs and increasing regional commerce hinges on efforts to make goods movement more competitive and yet still meet new federal and state air quality requirements that have been mandated for the region. This is one of the thorniest and most serious dilemmas facing the region today. However, as discussed more extensively in the economic chapter of the RCP; from an historical perspective, nations and regions have actually become more competitive by successfully learning to resolve conflicting interests. (See Chapter Two, The Economy, in the Draft RCP.) Major goods movement facilities in the SCAG region include the ports of Hueneme, Long Beach, and Los Angeles; airport operations at Burbank, John Wayne, Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Ontario; and a system of railroads, freeways, highways, and arterial truck routes. Issues confronting the efficient movement of goods are the following: • System Improvements: Development, operation and maintenance of the region's significant existing and proposed freight movement facilities are essential to revitalizing the Southern California economy. Key improvements are the following: • Completion of the Alameda Corridor is essential to the region's fight to stay competitive in the world market. Three quarters of a million jobs and the loss of port business to seaports in Ensenada; Mexico, and Tacoma, Washington are tied to the successful funding and approval of the Alameda Project. SCAG• Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-21 Chapter Two • Executive Summar - GoaLs, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT • Extension of improved highway access to the Port of Hueneme in Ventura County is also critical to the efficient and cost effective movement of goods within the SCAG region as well as in out of the SCAG region to other international markets. • Study of freight rail corridor consolidation east towards Barstow in San Bernardino County to evaluate the long term efficient movement of goods. • Completion of the new Calexico East Port of Entry and final resolution of connection issues has taken on a new sense of urgency with the approval by Congress of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). • Energy: The common thread that runs through all aspects of goods movement from air quality issues to cost of operations is "energy". A fix of one energy-related problem frequently adds or creates problems elsewhere. For example, the search for cleaner emissions can drive up operating costs to cover use of more expensive clean fuels. • Safety: Freight accidents and incidents on the region's roadways drive up cost of goods and reduce mobility for all other users of highway/freeway systems. • Mode: System inefficiencies and mode conflicts drive up costs and reduce the region's competitiveness. The Alameda Corridor improvements are designed to increase the region's businesses competitiveness by removing bottlenecks in the ship to truck/train network. • 'Duck & Rail: Truck and rail move gc :o and from the SCAG region and are responsible almost exclus,,...y for delivery to wholesale, retail, and industrial sites. Trade-offs between the two that will be required to meet the regions' goals and mandates for mobility, air quality, and standard of living must consider the totality of the truck and rail systems. • Urban Form: Land-use designs and infrastructure development do not adequately accommodate the needs of goods movement. Off-Peak-hour truck use of highways and streets can improve mobility overall, reduce the cost of doing business, and increase competitiveness. However, off peak hour deliveries may require early morning or late evening shipping to retail outlets which are frequently surrounded by residential neighborhoods. To be accepted by the public, deliveries during non-traditional hours must be made to on site shipping docks that are designed to shelter and insulate surrounding residences from noise and light. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-22 Chapter Two • Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURES SUMMARY (RME CHAPTER ELEVEN) Transportation Control Measures (TCMs) are strategies designed to reduce the amount of motor-vehicle based emissions by changing the way people make trips, by alleviating traffic congestion, and by facilitating infrastructure changes to promote alternatives to single- occupant vehicles. Strategies and requirements for TCMs used to meet air quality requirements differ for each of the region's six non-attainment areas. However, maximum use of reasonably available TCMs in conjunction with all other strategies (stationary and area) is mandated by law.' (See Table 2-10 for federal and state TCM requirements.) TABLE 2-10 FEDERAL AND STATE TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURES REQUIREMENTS FEDERAL S'TAT'E 108(f) list of TCMs Implement TCMs considered reasonably available TCMs must be: AQMP to provide for TCMs Enforceable Quantifiable Replicable Accountable Contribute to an increase in large 1.5 peak hour Average Vehicle employer Average Vehicle Ridership Occupancy by 1999 Offset growth in emissions due to Substantially reduce the rate of increases in VMT or Vehicle Trips increase in VMT Ranked by cost-effectiveness Publicly acceptable Monitoring procedures for compliance and effectiveness As part of the air quality plan development process, SCAG is responsible for providing socio-economic data for three air basins: ' Federal Clean Air Act,Lewis-Prealey Act,California Clean Air Act,ISTEA SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-23 Chapter Two • Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT • The Ventura County portion of the South Central Coast Air Basin. • Portions of the Southeast Desert Air Basin including Mojave Desert AQMD area, Coachella Valley and Antelope Valley. • The South Coast Air Basin (SCAB). In the South Coast Air Basin, SCAG in cooperation with local governments is also responsible by statute for developing and providing TCMs to the SCAQMD for inclusion in the Air Quality Management Plan. Additionally, SCAG's role is to ensure conformity with the applicable SIP, to monitor and to ensure that the RME and RTIP gives priority to TCMs. Several SCAG Task Forces made up principally of local government representatives have assisted in providing policy level input into the TCM development process. These committees include the following: Advanced Transportation Technology Task Force; Market Incentives Task Force; Aviation Technical Advisory Committee; Regional Railroad Air Quality Emission Reduction Program; and the joint SCAG/SCAQMD TCM Policy Committee. While specific recommendations for the South Coast TCMs are still outstanding, initial indications are that the basin's TCM efforts will consist of a comprehensive mobile source emission reduction strategy based on the following: • Mobility Improvements: Closer coordination and integration of air quality and congestion relief measures through the CMP and deficiency plan process are being examined. The impacts of transportation facility improvement are also being addressed. • Technology: Providing innovative technological means to reduce vehicular emissions is likely to be an important cornerstone of the strategy. • Market Incentives/Pricing: Such strategies could be used either to enhance or substitute for TCMs. Market incentives have the potential to also fund needed transportation improvements. • Non-vehicular Mobile Source Emission Reductions: Railroad, airport ground access and goods movement emissions are being re-examined for implementation at the federal, state and regional level. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2-24 Chapter Two • Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT One of the major issues being debated currently in the SCAB is the structure or mechanism that will be used to implement TCMs. There appears to be three thrusts to this issue: (1) reliance on regional rules (2) pricing, and (3) market/service responsive approaches. Non-Auto TCMs: In addition to efforts to achieve emission reductions from vehicles, the South Coast Air Basin has also included strategies to reduce emissions from planes and trains. The roles and specific responsibilities of various agencies involved in implementing these TCMs are still being debated. Regional Railroad Emissions Control Measure: The Railroad Emissions Control Measure from the 1989/91 South Coast Air Plan is being refined for the 1994 Ozone SIP Submittal. This measure is focuses on railroad operations in the South Coast Air Basin, including freight, commuter, and intercity passenger trains. It could have implications on the surrounding air basin as well. The intent is to reduce oxides of nitrogen from diesel-electric locomotives. Key concerns include: ensuring that adverse modal diversion from trains to trucks does not occur; the development of a comprehensive financing plan; and the provision of a backstop measure. The decision process for establishing control methods needed to achieve a substantially greater reduction in 2010 emissions is as follows. A Regional Railroad Air Quality Emission Reduction Program has been established, with a Policy Board and five Standing Committees: the Locomotive Propulsion Systems, Finance, Legal, Consolidation, and Freight Movements Committees. In addition, an Emissions Reduction Target Subcommittee will finalize the emissions reduction target for 2010 (currently set at 90%). The previous Railroad Emissions Measure called for Railroad Electrification. The current form of the measure is technology- neutral, and calls for one or a combination of the following strategies to be used to lower locomotive emissions: clean diesel, SCR, cleaner fuels such as LNG used by gas engines or dual-fuel engines, electrification, and/or new locomotive power plants such as fuel cells. A series of studies and demonstration projects will be completed by the beginning of 1996, permitting comparisons between alternative control methods, including feasibility and time to commercialization, life-cycle costs, and funding/financial plans required for implementation. The Policy Board will refine the Railroad Emissions Reduction Measure as appropriate, by June 1996. Aviation Transportation Control Measure: The respective roles and responsibilities of the various agencies involved in implementing aviation Transportation Control Measures (TCM's) are still being SCAG • Regional Mobiliry Element • December 1993 page 2.25 � Y Chapter Two • Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMENT debated. Currently, SCAG is developing ground access plans for all the air carrier airports, the SCAQMD is developing an indirect source rule that will be applied to these airports, and EPA is developing an airport control strategy pursuant to the Federal Implementation Plan (FIP). The exact division of responsibilities between these agencies in implementing aviation TCM's will be determined in the future. REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION FINANCING SUMMARY (RME CHAPTER TEN) Table 2-11 illustrates a regional cost-revenue summary for the facilities in the Constrained Project for the year 2010 of the RME. The revenues fall short of covering costs by 5 billion dollars. At this time the shortfall is a major issue. Most of the shortage is for transit capital and operations. The revenues are based on estimates of federal, state, and local funds that are judged to be reasonably available for various categories of projects. The revenues and costs were developed through discussions from the county transportation commissions and Caltrans. SCAG and transportation agency staffs are continuing to review costs and review estimates in order to bring forward proposals for resolving the shortfall issue. A balanced budget is necessary to meet state and federal requirements. TABLE 2-11 1993 REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT COST-REVENUE SUMMARY (a) 1991 - 2010 PROGRAM COST ' °b REVENUE NET Highway $6.4 11.8 $6.3 ($0.1) Operating Transit 22.9 42.7 21.0 (1.9) Operating Regional 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.7 Streets and Roads Highway 10.6 19.6 9.0 (1.6) Capital Transit 12.7 23.7 9.7 (3.0) Capital SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 2_26 Chapter Two • aecurive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and Finance DRAFT DOCUMEA7 PROGRAM COST % REVENUE NET Transportation 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 Demand Management (b) Non- 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 motorized Transportation (b) TOTAL - 53.7 100.0 48.5 (5.2) ALL PROGRAMS a dollars are in billions (b) Preliminary estimates ISSUES IN NEED OF FURTHER STUDY10 The RME raises strategy issues that need to be addressed by regional and subregional decision-makers. MOBILITY AND AIR QUALITY • How can transportation and air quality requirements for mobility and air quality be met under federal and state law to prevent funding sanctions? FUNDING SHORTFALL FOR THE RME • Given current estimates of a five billion dollar shortfall, how will the region pay for facilities and programs that are needed to meet federal and state mobility and air quality requirements? Can more funds that meet the reasonably funded criteria be identified? As an alternative to budget increases, can facilities and programs be prioritized for funding? Can project costs be reduced? 10 Each chapter of the RME typically concludes a section on Issues in Need of Further Study'that specifically address problems pertaining to the topic covered in the chapter. Please see also RME chapter twelve,Regional Action Program Summary,for a list of all recommendations suggested in each chapter. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 page 2.27 Chapter Two 0 Executive Summary: Goals, Objectives, Strategies, and F-mane DRAFT DOCUMENT AMENDMENTS PROCESS SUMMARY Recognizing the need for amendments, SCAG will commit to at least one major amendment, if needed, every two years between plan adoption dates. This includes preparation of the conformity statement. Plan amendments that do not require preparation of a conformity statement may be prepared more frequently. The RTP will be certified periodically as required by state and federal law (See also Appendix E, Amendments Process). SCAG • Regional Mobility Element 0 December 1993 Page 2-28 ?; REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION �.:.... .... L' 7 7 %3o DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROGRAM INTRODUCTION As population growth and the resulting traffic congestion increase demands on the transportation system, additional measures will become necessary to meet mobility goals. Moreover, budgetary constraints dictate that the region's mobility needs cannot be met solely by constructing new facilities. The RME places special emphasis on Transportation Demand Management (TDM) in meeting the region's mobility needs. It also recognizes the importance of TDM in meeting the requirements of the federal Clean Air Act (CAA) with respect to air quality and the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) requirements. TDM strategies comprise those efforts that attempt to change people's travel behavior. Specifically, TDM consists of actions intended to increase vehicle occupancy for both passenger and transit vehicles; increase the use of alternatives to vehicular transport; reduce the number of commute and non-commute trips by eliminating them entirely; and reduce trip lengths through various means. TDM strategies complement the investment the region is making in alternative transportation infrastructure.High-Occupancy Vehicles(HOV) and transit, by maximizing the efficient use of these investments and should be coordinated with them. These strategies can help mitigate _ impacts of population growth and the resultant demand on the transportation system. BACKGROUND Demand management has been a component of regional transportation planning for almost two decades. Owing principally to federal and state regulatory and incentive programs, the largest TDM emphasis has been on reducing the home-to-work commute (see Table 3-1). Outreach and public education by rideshare agencies and transit providers has also significantly increased throughout the region. SCAG • Regional Mobiliq, Element • December, 1993 Page 3-1 Chapter Three • Regional Transportation Demand Management Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 3-1 IMPLEMENTATION OF TDM MEASURES Regional Local ;Employee Commute Options Congestion Management Programs :Programs • Required for each urbanized • Regulation XV county • Rule 210 • See Table 3-6 for detailed CMP • Rule 1701 programs Ridematching Services Telecommuting Workcenters • Commuter Transportation • See Figures 3-1A and 3-I13 Services, Inc. • Orange County Transportation Transportation Management Authority Associations • See Figures 3-1A and 31-B TDM as CEQA Mitigation Strategy Transportation Management Associations (TMAs) that coordinate TDM functions for employers, developers and residents have also developed a niche in Southern California. There are 24 TMAs in the SCAG region and one of their primary functions is ridematching (see Figures 3-1A and 3-1B). FIGURE 3-1(A) EXISTING TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATIONS (TMAs) EXISTING TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATIONS MAM) • Airport Cmaaoida TMA,O=& • No&OnW Comy TMA,Ben • Bahad:My Qww nM Basbmk • Puedeaa TUA.pan&m « bff m Media Diana n4k Barhmt • Rmho saw Ma rm TMA.Rmwho Santa MwP= • Cry Oty Nearside 7M&La Ayda • saw Ci—Vdky 77&Saw C do Ca mW Moom Newpm Baarb • saw V&6ey TMo,Sad Vdky • 3 S[gwdo Bapkyo AanoaiaL C dver City • Sao&Cam Mean TMA.Cau Mee • Gmusy Ovpsaiaa Gm w TMA.kdaay • ub Cswo7 Diann TMA.Owwoedt • Qndde TMA,06adak • Van Nays TMA.Ww&md F& • Adlyaood 7MA.La An#" • Wattas Cate IMO,Woodlmd Elk • hvae Specam TMA,kvae • WmAmwIlAX TMA,La Aegda • Loy Bard Twdk Rabtcdm Anadaia k Last Bark • Wag Mlywood Ara IMO,Wet Holly Newport Cate,Newport Barb • Watnwood'haatpa ubm Nawatk La AoVda EXISTING TELECOMMUnNG WORK-CENTERS Awk Wiry Tekbosum Wattmaw * ►ammo Tdemmmutas wart Catae Aadope Valky Tdocamw of Cate * Rwhe Palaa Vatdw TdotmtmO M, Wart emw * Est Hiolmds Rmrb Rmdu"Telebarma Wcd mtr * Rivemde TdoaomuwS Wak Corte -0' On=Takbwa Wad;coos * Simi Vdky 7tampattadm Mmy®at"=Obm SCAG • Regional Mobilinl Element • December, 1993 Page 3-2 00 ONiOHYNU36 NVS '00 3O1SU3AIU Qi c L� I / � O 0 Z �� z° * W / m LL - a LU N W y /� Q C!) I' 0 �I Ri Iw I I O = Y - I ((ui �f - - - - - - - - - : Q i )I � J R • •f 7�. c / �� LU �� R R •/� z * Q O � i f— Z uJ g p I •cn H � U y J Y z • s � a: z Z ` •- �: O � O — OLL •s o j cnQ � � � �c • An CC c 1 c i - R i 0 E C/) F— CC `2 • I CV) Q 0 Q ) I mLe)o) O W E i W o E o c c °' W W J _ o N a y > c �fS c C'7 J o c cn � c _ C ° En h Z x <C x o 1° Vf w Q w o� G Q oo wrewe rlra a E ci _ yy m • T i "Z � Chapter Three • Regional Transportation Demand Managemen: Program DRAFT DOCUMEAT TRANSPORTATION DEMAND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR THE REGION Traditional TDM techniques (i.e., facility standards, transit, rideshare programs,non-motorized access,telecommuting,alternative work weeks, flex-time, and employer trip reduction programs) represent one approach to improving regional mobility. The proposed TDM program for the region incorporates strategies from two other approaches to ensure that the full range of behavioral influences on travel are addressed: market- based incentives, targeting the economic rationale behind people's transportation choices; and land-use strategies, targeting the spatial influences affecting trip-generation and destination choices. Linking Land-Use and TDM Through Activity Areas Activity areas (clusters of economic and/or social activity) exist throughout the SCAG region. On a community/neighborhood scale these areas attract local and nearby residents to shop, work, and socialize. Examples of such areas are "Main Streets," shopping centers and business parks. On a larger scale, areas as large downtown Central Business Districts(CBDs)and universities attract people from around the region. These areas represent opportunities for trip reduction through the implementation of demand management techniques in concert with the provision of transit, HOV lanes, or neighborhood shuttle services. Such areas also offer opportunities for ride matching incentives and strategies to occur. In addition, activity areas often serve, or can be designed to serve, different needs such as on-site child care, personal services (eg. banking, dry cleaners, restaurants, etc.), or shopping, thus reducing non- work vehicle trips and Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). Two elements that help determine activity areas are where people live and work. The 1990 Census data were used to identify Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZ), in which significant clusters of housing and employment existed (see Figure 3-2). Based on a consensus-derived baseline for the year 2010, Figure 3-3 notes both the existing and new activity areas that are expected to grow in employment and housing densities. Linking Demand Management and Technology Recent and future technological advances have the potential to significantly mitigate the demand for travel within the region. As the state, national and international telecommunication infrastructure has expanded, the way the region's residents work, conduct meetings, bank, shop, and pay for goods and services has begun to change. During the SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 3-4 � ���.w� .i4 ruup;� ���I�I� it■�nc ( b� r��.•�I qr rri� F oit IL JII r � n m nnu'"q � 1 Lao nl, m nIII11ImJ�rFll��1�� III�aLy�� !,_`:•_tea y-r, ■III Baal.( • s :da rat- wn,• :I mr- �i 1*��.. i mot:�1 �• ��,�t��±,;��ltij r 1 wl s. _ 7im� I1► Hal Me ' / I►� lulu Jima yn ,.,ice •-;, ,� nlll's � � �- I , • a m il li�'i►..II P!�'.J �U�11111� �- I'�_ul • �� 'llu� III, 11 „� Illluw�LnwPhll�`III - /11111"��� �t.t� � ...IU11191:NI'g1111'all' �� � �_ �•'� IA illy Itfi11x. m. «« �n _ lei Ilt nl n a*/ - y -t All ,Hill won An 1.�Nr..�, *�► nd it lll' Vi au1�l t Chapter Three • Regional Transportation Demand Management Program DRAFT DOCUMEA7 past decade, the percentage of people telecommuting within the region _ at least one day a week has increased to 3.9 percent. As remote offices become more accessible (either through work-at-home arrangements or tele-work centers), this trend can be expected to continue. Office teleconferencing facilities are beginning to become a standard part of the office environment. As technology to support this type of remote interaction continue, the implications for reducing work-related meeting trips are substantial. Finally, technology has the potential to more effectively manage travel demand by facilitating greater system efficiencies. "Smart cards" that debit accounts could be used to pay for mobility services such as transit use, parking fees, roadway tolls, or demand response shuttles, thereby improving perceived accessibility to these transportation alternatives. TDM Strategies The impact of TDM strategies is indicated in the modeling presented in the Constrained Plan and the Innovative Project Series Alternative. If fully effective, employer trip reduction will show significant impacts on transit mode split 11.8 percent and a shared-ride mode split of 19.2 percent, when implemented in concert with the transit, HOV, and other mobility enhancements included in the plan. Overall, the TDM strategies and facilities included in the Constrained Plan, attain a regional Average Vehicle Ridership (AVR) of 1.330 during the peak commute hours including implementation of the Federal Energy Bill incentives for transit use and the Katz parking cash-out provision. The results for the Innovative Project Series, indicate the effects of improved feeder transit systems in conjunction with TDM resulting in a transit mode split of 12.6 percent, a shared ride mode split of 17.6 percent with a resultant increase in AVR to 1.350. These results support the emphasis on demand management in conjunction with facility improvement in the RME. This could improve use of the proposed investment in alternative modes and reduce congestion that would have had to be accommodated on the roadway system in the absence of an aggressive TDM strategy. RECOMMENDED TDM PROGRAM The recommended TDM program focuses on enhancing existing effective TDM programs with increased funding. The critical short- and long- term focus of the demand management component of the RME is on strengthening the integration of TDM strategies in concert with the provision of non-SOV capacity-enhancing infrastructure, particularly through the Congestion Management program (CMP), RTIP and to promote closer coordination of these strategies in project corridors/area and program planning. Thus, the program recommended in Table 12-3 concentrates on developing and refining processes that enable this to occur. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 3-7 Chapter Three • Regional Transportation Demand Management Program DR4F7 DOCUMENT Demand management strategies should also significantly contribute to the attainment of federal, state and regional transportation performance standards, including transit, ridesharing and non-motorized mode splits, and VMT reduction as identified in Chapter 2. The TDM program intends to address four distinct emphasis areas: 1. For non-commute trips to promote access to and within activity areas, coordinate the implementation of land-use strategies when appropriate and accepted, and facilitate education and promotion of non SOV alternatives (see) Table 12-3. 2. For commute based strategies to facilitate the use of non-SOV alternatives through ridematching, rideshare support facilities, efforts to increase transit accessibility, implementation of employer trip reduction programs, support of TDM demonstration programs, and support of the coordination of TDM strategies for Park-And-Ride lots (see Table 12-3). 3. To implement direct and indirect market incentives that are consistent with the principles identified by the Market Incentive Task Force (see Table 3-3). 4. Use technology advances in information exchange, system effectiveness and other applications to change the use of the regional transportation system. RECOMMENDED POLICIES The following policies are be used to guide implementation of the regional TDM program: • Assign TDM programs and the development of transit and ridesharing facilities priority over mixed-flow highway capacity expansion to achieve and maintain mobility in the future. • Support the development, public seed funding of demonstration programs that are new and innovative. • Support the extension of TDM program implementation to non- commute trips for public and private sector activities. • Support the coordination of land use and transportation decisions with each other's capacity, taking into account the potential for demand management strategies to mitigate travel demand if provided for as a part of the entire package. • Support the use of market incentives as a mechanism to affect and support changes in travel behavior toward the use of alternative SCAG • Regional Mobilin• Element • December, 1993 Page 3-8 Chapter Three 0 Regional Transportation Demand Management Program DRAFT DOCUME,tiT modes for both commute and non-commute travel. • Support efforts to educate the public on the efficacy of demand management strategies and increase the use of alternative transportation. Implementation of TDMs Many of the demand management actions are implemented at the local level in conjunction with CMP. The statute requires the five counties containing urbanized areas in the SCAG region to develop a trip reduction and TDM component. Table 3-2 provides a summary of the TDM strategies contained in the region's CMO's. The CMP provides an important framework for implementing demand management strategies throughout the region, empowering local jurisdictions with control over the implementation of TDM programs. FISCAL ISSUES RELATED TO TDM The costs of demand management strategies have historically been shared by both the public and private sectors. Moreover, because demand management strategies have been highly tailored to individual sites, significant variation in costs exists, depending on the breadth and number of TDM actions implemented at specific sites. Both of these actions contribute to substantial difficulties in conducting, a thorough survey, as well as, an assessment of actual costs of implementing those TDMs. Funded TDM Programs The funding cycle is intended to assist local jurisdictions comply with the SCAQMD 1991 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP), which requires cities to commit to the implementation of TCMs (including TDM measures) by December 1993. Los Angeles County MTA has 101 projects funded to date, San Bernardino Association of Governments has 35 non-motorized projects funded, and Ventura County Transportation Commission has 71 projects funded through STP and CMAQ funds. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 3-9 Chapter Three * Regional Transportation Demand Management Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 3-2 CMP IMPLEMENTATION OF TDM STRATEGIES COUNTY STRATEGIES MEASURES Los San Angeles Orange Riverside Bernardino Ventura Single * None Identified Occupancy Dis-incentives Rideshare * Regional Rideshare Rules* X X X X X Incentives * Vanpool Prognims X X X X * Ridematching X X X X X * TMA Coordination X X X * Mobile Rideshare Marketing X * Rideshare Recognition X * Local TDM Support Programs X * Park-and-Ride Lots X X X X Transit Service * Transit Service Standards X X X X X Enhancements e Shuttle Service X Vehicle * Bicycle& Pedestrian Facilities X Substitutions * TDM Ordinances X X X X** Incentives Trip * Telecommuting Programs X Elimination Incentives Trip Length * Telecommuting Workcenters X X X Reduction Incentives Direct * Gas Tax Increase X X X X X Market e Vanpool/carpool Subsidies X X X Incentives * Buspool Subsidies X e Non-auto Travel Incentives X Indirect e Pedestrian-Oriented Market Design Requirements X Incentives Land * Growth Management X X X Use * Local Land Use Impact X X X X X Programs Strategies * Regulation XV (South Coast Air Basin), Rule 210 (Ventura County) and Rule 1701 (Desert portions of San Bernardino County)each have complementary effects on the implementation of CMPs. ** San Bernardino County jurisdictions within the South Coast Air Basin must adopt TDM Ordinances by December 31, 1993; jurisdictions within the desert portions of the county must adopt TDM Ordinances by November 1, 1993. SCAG 0 Regional Mobility Element * December, 1993 Page 3-10 F Chapter Three • Regional Transportation Demand Management Program DRAFT'DOCUMENT MARKET-BASED APPROACHES Market-based approaches to addressing congestion and air quality problems provide mechanisms by which system users pay the "real" cost of the transportation benefits they receive. These approaches are divided into direct and indirect market incentives: 1. Direct market incentives focus on changing the relative costs of transportation options. Pricing as a TDM action can reinforce consumer choices of travel alternatives, and can be fiscal measures aimed at financing and implementation of alternative travel options or subsidies. 2. Indirect market incentives use economic rewards (lower development costs, higher density, lower tax or fee rates) to influence urban design/siting policies that support reduced automobile use. Market Inventives Task Force SCAG has formed a Market Incentives Task Force composed of local government elected officials. The charge of this Task Force is to examine the impacts of developing user-based pricing, subsidy and reinvestment actions. The Task Force has developed a number of principles on how market incentives should be developed and what actions are to be considered (see Table 3-3). The recommendation of this group will be incorporated into the final draft. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 3-11 Chapter Three • Regional Transportation Demand Management Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 3-3 MARKET INCENTIVE PRINCIPLES GOALS ACTIONS Reduce congestion, mobile source •Development of new technologies including emissions,and foster regional economic clean vehicles advantage *Fees, subsidies and reinvestment Reduce the use of single occupant vehicles •Fees, subsidies and reinvestment Achieve mobility and air quality goals •Fees, subsidies and reinvestment •Minimize the need for command and control approaches Mitigate impacts on business •Opportunities for regional economic competitiveness Avoid or mitigate impacts on user groups *Subsidy and reinvestment programs Avoid or mitigate geographic impacts •Subsidy and reinvestment programs Design and mitigation of market-based *Consult to provide input and consider programs different subregional conditions A stable base of transportation funding *Consistent with user-based financing but not as a source of general revenues SUBREGIONAL INPUT ILocal jurisdictions, through subregional groups, have provided input on the selection,implementation, and phasing of appropriate TDM strategies for the region (see Table 3-4). Addressing implementation of demand management strategies at the subregional level will allow greater flexibility in reaching regional trip reduction goals by improving coordination between local jurisdictions and regional agencies while ensuring consistency among implementation plans. It also provides a forum to initiate an assessment of how much the region can rely on TDM strategies to meet mobility and air quality goals. SCAG • Regional Mobilin, Element • December, 1993 Page 3-12 Chapter Three • Regional Transportation Demand Management Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 3-4 SUBREGIONALY RECOMMENDED IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMS ACTIONSIPROGRAMS SUBREGIONSIPRIVATE AND NON-PROFIT ORGANIZATIONS TDM-Linked To Transit Improvement: Southeast Los Angeles County, • Facilitate linkage with existing modes Western Riverside Council of • Increase accessibility Governmemts, " • Additional bus and shuttle services South Bay Cities Association, • Accommodate mode shifts away from trip reduction City of Palmdale, goals Natural Resources Defense Council, • Access to employment and activity areas • JPA to meet transit needs without subsidy • Expand system based on ridership surveys TDM-Linked To Parking: Orange County, Westside Cities, • Parking supply and pricing San Gabriel Valley Association of • Park-And-Ride lots for work/activity areas Cities, South Bay Cities • Restriction on public and street parking Association TDM-Linked To Land-Use: Orange County, • Densification near activity areas Westside Cities, • Densification around transit corridors/lanes Southeast Los Angeles County, • Mixed use development Western Riverside Council of • Coordinate transportation improvements with land-use Governments, • Incorporate urban form into development review policies Arroyo Verdugo, - • Physical design to support alternate modes South Bay Cities Association, • Subregional network with local feeder network TDM-Linked To Rideshare Incentives: Orange County, • Encourage carpool/transit Western Riverside Council of • Education programs Governments, *Flex-schedule beyond Reg. XV Natural Resources Defense • Enhance Reg. XV requirements (e.g., less than 100 Council, employees) Arrovo Verdugo, • Telecommuting Southeast Los Angeles County, • Evaluate and support most effective TDM projects Westside Cities, • Enhanced employer-based projects City of Los Angeles, • Increase membership & service of TMA/TMO San Gabriel Association of Cities, • Retail, shopping centers South Bay Cities Association • Multi-modal system to employment and activity areas • Address non-commute trips • Participate in AQMD formulation of "back stop" • Improve ridesharing and non-motorized modes to work • Phasing of credit to ordinance. CIP/TIP adoption phases SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 3-13 Chapter Three • Regional Transportation Demand Management Program DRAFT DOCUMEA7 ACTIONS/PROGRAMS SUBREGIONS/PRIVATE AND NON-PROFIT ORGANIZATIONS Other: Orange County, City of Brea, • Gas tax Westside Cities, Southeast Los • Electric vehicles, alternate fuels Angeles County, Western Riverside • Child care centers near transit Council of Governments, Orange • Child care centers near work site County Bicycle Coalition, Inland • Renewable energy sources Empire Economic, Partnership, • Emission fee, road tolls City of Palmdale, Northwest Area • Market-based incentive Planning District, San Jacinto • Set goals for bike contribution in overall mix Valley Area Planning District • Prohibit removal of bike ways SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 3-14 11� . R c. REGIONAL TRANSIT US AND RAIL) PROGRAM INTRODUCTION / BACKGROUND A major goal of the 1993 Regional Mobility Element (RME) is to reduce reliance on the single-occupant automobile. Public transportation (transit) will be increasingly important in achieving regional air quality attainment and mobility goals. Transit services are provided by fixed guideway (usually rail) and bus(fixed and demand response)modes. The Regional Transit Program (RTP) of the RME is intended to create the construct for a centers-based transit network and to those identify policies, actions and activities necessary to develop and implement a efficient, safe, attractive, and cost-effective public transit system which support and complement each extant regional transportation systems. The ultimate aim is for transit to increase its significance and become an increasingly viable mobility alternative in Southern California. ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT TRANSIT ROLE IN THE REGION Currently, public transportation in the Southern California region was operated directly or under contract by about 17 separate public agencies. Public transportation providers operated approximately 516.5 million unlinked trips in fiscal year 1990 in the SCAG region. Transit providers operated more than 125 million revenue miles and slightly less than 10 million revenue hours with a morning peak-hour bus fleet of about 2,800 vehicles. A breakdown of transit revenue hours and revenue miles by county is shown in Figures 4-1, 4-2. Public providers in Southern California collectively own one of the largest bus transit fleets in the world, with the LACMTA operating the largest transit bus fleet in the United States. The "intersecting grid" design is currently the dominant route network used in Orange County, the City of Los Angeles, and areas of L.A. County with routes currently or formerly serviced by SCRTD. The grid network comprises about 235 individual routes operated on north-south and east-west streets and providing extensive area coverage. Ninety-eight percent of existing regional transit bus service is provided by nine major public providers (Figures 4-3,4-4 and 4-5): the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority; the Orange County Transportation Authority(includes the former OCTD) in Orange County; the Riverside Transit Agency (RTA), OmniTrans, and South Coast Area Transit (SCAT) -- the major regional operators in Riverside, San Bernardino,and Ventura counties,respectively--the municipal operators in Long Beach, Santa Monica, and Foothill Transit and the Los Angeles Department of Transportation (LA DOT) provide bus services SCAG • Regional Mobilin, Element • December, 1993 Page 4-1 Chapter Four • Regional Transit (Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCUMENT FIGURE 41 FY 1990 Cby Coun-yD VEWLM O.A -1 r 54N BFALAQDi NC ].2% �- O�UPGE 12.5% �- RIVERSIDE 1 H LOS ANGELES 93 01 FIGURE 42 REVENUE i\A I LEE; FY 1990 Cby Coun?yD - VENTURA 0.9% -1 r-- SAN BERNARDINO 2 4% 0AANGE 13.0% QIVERSi DE 1 M LOS ANGELES 81 9% -� SCAG • Regional Mobility Element 0 December, 1993 Page 4-2 Chapter Four • Regional Transit Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCIMEAT in Los Angeles County. The Metrorail (urban rail) and Metrolink (commuter rail) are operated by the LACMTA and the Southern California Regional Rail Authority (SCRRA), respectively. Municipal transit systems in L.A. County, and the regional operators in Riverside. San Bernardino, and Ventura counties operate bus services oriented toward a "Hub and Spoke" or "radial arm" configuration with a focus on major transit hubs, incorporating approximately 130 individual routes. Metrolink System (Commuter Rail) Commuter rail service (Figure 4-6) between Los Angeles and San Juan Capistrano began in the summer of 1990. In October of 1992, the first three lines of the Metrolink regional commuter rail system began service between Los Angeles and Moorpark, Santa Clarita and Pomona. The Pomona Line was extended to Claremont, the Montclair Transit Center, and to Riverside and San Bernardino 1993. A number of reverse commute and off-peak train services were initiated in spring of 1993 and expanded in October of 1993. Metrorail System (Urban Rail) The Metro Blue Line began service between the Pico Station and Downtown Long Beach in the summer of 1990; thus, rail transit returned to the SCAG region after a 30-year hiatus. In the spring of 1991, the Flower Street subway extension opened, permitting the Blue Line to reach the Los Angeles Financial District. The first segment of the Metro Red Line began operations between Union Station and Alvarado Street in early 1993. The Metro Green Line is currently under construction as part of the Glen Anderson (I-105).Freeway project and is expected to open in 1994. Construction continues on the Red Line between the Alvarado Street and Western Avenue stations along the Wilshire Boulevard corridor. Red Line Segments 2 and 3 have received full funding commitments from the Federal Transit Administration. The Pasadena segment of the Blue Line has received funding from LACMTA. Service to Universal City (Red Line)and to Pasadena (Blue Line)scheduled to become operational in the late 1990s (figure 4-7). Existing Intercity Rail Service (AMTRAK) Intercity passenger trains (Figure 4-7) serve primarily business and recreational trip markets,providing service between major urban centers, with most trips more than 50 miles in length. The SCAG region is currently served by five transcontinental trains operating daily or weekly service. Two intra-state Amtrak corridor services operate between San Diego, Los Angeles and Santa Barbara. The corridor service operate eight trains daily between Los Angeles and San Diego with two service extensions to Santa Barbara. 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Program DRAFT DOCUMEN7 IMPLEMENTATION OF TRANSIT ACTIONS IN THE 1989 RMP The 1989 RMP identified 24 specific Transit Program Actions to be addressed and undertaken as pan of the plan implementation process, covering three major categories: development of new revenue sources, capital construction and equipment acquisition,and the planning process. These actions were also included as TCMs in the 1989 and 1991 South Coast Air Quality Management Plan in the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) region. Since the adoption of the 1989 RMP, significant progress has occurred to implement the transit program. The most significant of these include: voter approved and Legislative actions that provided state (Props. 108, 111, 116) federal (ISTEA) and county-wide (measures A, C. I) new source capital funding for bus/rail projects; implementation of new rail service on the Blue Line from Long Beach to Los Angeles, Red Line segment MOS-1, Metrolink commuter rail lines, purchase of transit vehicles; and full-funding commitments from Federal Transportation Authority (FTA) for Red Line Segments MOS2 and 3. Since the RMP's adoption, various actions have been undertaken throughout the region which implement new and expanded transit services. A good example of these implementation actions have occurred in Ventura County. VCTC in cooperation with county transit providers and local jurisdictions has completed a number of transit studies. These studies identified a number of bus and rail improvements that when fully implemented, will significantly enhance public transportation in the county. These enhancements include new intra-county demonstration express bus services operating on the Highway 101, 126, the Eastern Area and the Central Area corridors. The new service is designed to connect those communities along and adjacent to these corridors and to facilitate access to the existing and emerging rail improvements. These new demonstration services will be funded under the CMAQ program with scheduled start-up in 1994. In addition to the currently existing Metrolink service to Moorpark, Ventura has identified a number of new rail programs to be implemented by the year 2010. These include expansion of Metrolink to Ventura, the Santa Paula line extension, and new service between Ventura and Santa Barbara. Additionally included is expansion of inter-city rail services on both the Coast Line, LOSSAN North and future rail service using new technologies for high and medium speed rail in the Coastal corridor. These rail enhancements will be funded jointly through anticipated state bond measure and countywide supplemental sales tax funds. l SCAG • Regional Mobilin, Element • December, 1993 Page 4-9 Chapter Four • Regional Transit (Bus and Rail) 11-1gram DRAFT DOCUMENT CEh"TERS-BASED TRANSIT SYSTEM The objective of the centers-based transit network (CBTN) is to develop and implement an multi-modal transit system that connects regional activity centers with their surrounding communities, sub-regional areas, and Southern California as a whole. The functional purpose of the CBTN is to facilitate user access, egress and distribution among modes, service types and attractor/generators The centers-based transit network is sub- regional in orientation, with a primary service focus toward activity centers and their component attractor/generators. The flexibility of the centers-based network is in its ability to accommodate transit service development that reflects the needs, goals and objectives of the region as a whole, and for activity centers individually. It is this ability to develop service(s) tailored to meet specific needs that precludes a "one-size fits all" application. Service design will directly reflect the specific service characteristics and use needs required to provide maximum utility to the user. It is purpose of this section to identify and discuss the construct of a centers-based network and its development and implementation. Successful implementation of an efficient, center-based transit network I will require the use of three primary service components functioning at the regional/inter-regional, sub-regional and local level. These service components include. inter/intra-regional rail and express bus, sub- regional urban rail and express/limited bus, and local transit inclusive of area circulators, shuttles and demand response services where practical. Intra-regional and Inter-regional transit services The intra-regional service comprises those major transportation facilities that are regional in orientation, connect two or more subregions, and major regional activity centers and other inter-modal facilities such as seaports, airports, and inter-city rail stations. Intra-regional transit will include the Metrolink system which provides "end-point-to-end-point" service with limited stops. It anticipated that by the year 2000 the Metrolink system will be fully operational and provide approximately 99 daily train movements throughout the region. The intra-regional service will be supported by the existing inter-county express bus system providing "facility to destination" that uses, the regional transitways and freeway/arterial HOV lanes (Chapter 5) and is designed to complement, support and backfill the rail program. Inter-regional service includes intercity passenger rail,and the anticipated development of high speed rail service on the Coastal and California High Speed Rail Corridors. Existing inter-regional transit includes LOSSAN corridor service between San Diego, Orange County, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara. The SCAG region is also served by four transcontinental rail routes. In response to US DOT's designation of the SCAG • Regional Mobilim Element • December, 1993 Page 4-10 Chapter Four • Regional Transit (Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCUMEAT California High Speed Rail Corridor the California Transportation Commission has adopted a goal that development of high speed rail is a priority for California. This has been supported by an number of actions and the funding for a number of studies to reach the state goal. The enactment of SCR 1 specified the final alignment for the California High Speed Rail Corridor , established the California High Speed Rail Commission, and created funding in addition to Propositions 108 and 116 for actions related to creation of high speed rail in California. In addition, pending and proposed legislation will also fund development of medium speed rail applications on the Coastal Corridor, the Alameda Corridor, provide capital and operational support for regional and inter- city rail improvements in Southern California. SCAG at the request of the Federal Railroad Administration has undertake management responsibility for a long-range access and capacity required at the Los Angeles Union Passenger Terminal. Sub-regional transit services The sub-regional service facilitates trips between and within activity centers. Sub-regional service will be provided by the Metrorail system supported by the existing "point-to-point express and limited transit service. Long range plans identified the use of fixed-guideway transit (electric trolley) lines operating on dedicated rights-of-way, such as arterial HOVs. Access to sub-regional service is supported at rail and bus facilities by local transit networks, circulators, feeder services and private for-hire services such as shuttles and jitneys. Private automobiles driven to park-and-ride lots at stations and terminals will also be a major component of the feeder system at the home end of trips. Local transit services Regional activity centers (Figure 4-8) and sub-regions are common to all the program elements of the RME and are the focus areas for those actions that will develop, measure, and evaluate the strategies for both mobility and air quality goal achievement. The centers-based transit system is by its nature designed to facilitate inter-modal access, movement, and distribution of passengers among its component services. It is within the activity centers, local jurisdictions and the subregions where the development of public transit service(s) will occur. The local service component facilitates trip distribution between and among attractor/generators within activity centers. Service is focused on local transit hubs and/or designated transit activity areas within centers. Local transit includes feeder service, to major intermodal terminals and rail stations, connectors lines between hubs, circulators within centers, shuttles from peripheral parking lots into centers, and private for hire services operating in a demand response format or along designated corridors similar to the jitney service currently operating in Atlantic City. SCAG • Regional Mobilin, Element • December, 1993 Page 4-11 Chapter F,,ur • Regional Transit Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCUMENT The local service component of the centers-based transit network differs from existing service in that it is focused towards transit hubs or designated activity centers (Figure 4-9) and places emphasis on shorter route lengths with a higher frequency of service, and route designs which enhance availability and accessibility to the user and are coordinated with existing and/or desired land-use and developments. Development of service within individual centers will be dependant upon needs and goals of each center. It will be primarily the responsibility of the local jurisdictions and subregions to develop the types and levels of transit service(s) that will meet local jurisdiction and sub-regional needs, goals, and objectives. It is the diversity among centers, local jurisdictions and subregions that precludes the application of any single model for transit system development. However, there are a number of development criteria that can be applied to all centers and are to designed to consider, reflect and respond to: existing, emerging and desired land uses; levels of required (functional)inter-modal coordination; required transit capital investment, identified and targeted market groups; potential for joint development; institutional cooperation; and defined quantitative and qualitative sub- regional and local transit objectives developed and coordinated with the overall mobility strategy. The development process using the criteria noted above will directly affect and impact the mobility strategy through influencing the overall mix of transit programs. It will further impact regional funding decision- making through transit project prioritization at the subregion and corridor level mandated by the ISTEA . The development of specific transit projects that meet the needs of local jurisdictions and subregions will become the basis for RME Transit Program Actions, be quantified as TCMs for air quality attainment, and comprise a significant portion of the final RME Transit Program. Relationship to Facilities The multi-modal rail stations and transit hubs that support the existing and emerging rail system will be the first facilities to become operational. These facilities and hubs will be designed to meet specific level of service requirements and the needs of the communities in which they are located. These designs and configurations may vary considerably from simple layover or designated transfer areas, "walk-on" platform rail stops with minimal passenger amenities to developed multi- modal regional/sub-regional station sites with substantial passenger amenities and adjacent or direct access to park-and-ride lots and/or freeway/arterial HOV facilities. These high and medium capacity transit facilities will support and complement the implementation and operation of the HOV/transitway systems as collection/distribution points. "Facility to destination" and SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 4-12 I Chapter Four • Regional Transit Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCUMENT "limited access/destination" express bus service will provide an integrated link to regional park-n-ride lots located within sub-regional areas without direct access to the rail network. "Limited stop" transit service would provide higher capacity circulation/distribution within major employment centers through arterial HOV/transitway application linking urban rail stations and local transit hubs serving other attractor/generators. It is the functional interaction (when-where-how) between facilities, transportation systems and urban form which will influence and determine the form and implementation of the centers-based transit network. There are a number of significant areas to be considered regarding the form/function and interaction of centers based system and its facilities. This interaction will be the basis of future transit program actions as part of the regional transit strategy as well as the over mobility strategy for the SCAG region. As the centers-based transit network is implemented, activity centers will be connected to and by an extensive network of transit "focal points". Clearly, full implementation of such an extensive system is (as in 1989) beyond the capacity of currently available funding. However, initial implementation actions should be focused toward specific existing transit hubs which support the development of locally developed transit goals, and objectives for specific centers by affected local jurisdiction and subregions. There are a number of existing and emerging transit hubs that facilitate intra-and inter- modal functions. A number of examples include the following: 1. Los Angeles Union Passenger Terminal (Union Station in the Los Angeles CBD): Metrorail (urban rail), inter-city rail, Metrolink commuter rail, local and express bus. 2. Long Beach Transit Mall (downtown Long Beach): Metrorail, local and express bus. 3. Pasadena CBD, no existing facility: local and express bus. 4. El Monte Transit Station: local, limited and express bus. 5. Montclair Transit Center: Metrolink commuter rail, local and express bus. 6. Fullerton Transportation Center (Amtrak station): inter-city and commuter rail, local bus. 7. Santa Ana Regional Transportation Center (Amtrak station): inter-city and commuter rail, local bus. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 4-13 Chapter Four • Regional Transit Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCUMENT 8. Santa Ana Transit Terminal (Santa Ana CBD): local and express bus. 9. Anaheim Amtrak Station (Anaheim Stadium): inter-city and commuter rail, local bus, express bus. 10. RTA Downtown Terminal (Riverside CBD): express and local bus, inter-city bus. 11. Fourth Street Transit Mall (San Bernardino CBD): local bus, express bus. 1.2. Huntington Center (Golden West College): local bus, inter- city bus. 13. Martin Luther King, Jr. Transportation Center (Compton): Metro-Rail, local bus. Service Development and Integration Within Centers: As previously discussed, centers oriented services are designed to reflect locally developed needs and objectives. An example of center oriented transportation improvements which have integrated into overall community development have occurred in the City of Pasadena. The civic center transit station incorporated low and high income housing, retail and office activities and pedestrian amenities into a single site development. The City has additionally amended its General Plan to encourage similar mixed use development adjacent other stations. A new circulator system is being currently implemented with plans for existing local transit service redeployment to link the City's major a,ttractor/generators with rail stations. To date the City has used transit development to leverage $70 million in committed private sector development. Additionally, the Arroyo-Verdugo and the San Gabriel Valley sub- regional organizations have adopted support positions for development of an east-west rail corridor (Burbank to Pasadena), the Glendale/Burbank MetroRail line and the Auza BlueLine extension projects. SCAG • Regional Mobility. Element • December, 1993 Page 4-14 Chapter Four • Regional Transit (Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCUMENT REGIONAL TRANSIT STRATEGY The clearest measure of success for any transit strategy is in its effectiveness to attract and retain new users. The mix of programs, their systemic application, design and the management of support programs and actions will determine the performance and quality of the regional transit strategy. In consequence, the services provided must be the following: • available at times convenient for the user • accessible for use without physical or institutional barriers • designed from the user's point of view. This demands a series of actions that create a transit-friendly environment that provides: safe, secure, and attractive service; simple and easily understood transit information systems; coordination and integration with land uses, CMP and demand management actions, other transportation facilities; supported by a developed marketing strategy. Regional public transportation improvements are currently directed toward the implementation of the rail programs designed to create the infrastructure that supports service on high-and-medium-capacity corridors. This program mix was identified by county transportation commissions and transit providers, and comprises the FY 1993-99 Regional Transportation Implementation Plan (RTIP) and the long-range funded programs. The proposed improvements (see Figures 4-6 and 4-7) include eight urban rail lines, nine commuter rail lines, and two inter-city corridor lines. Although expansion of bus programs is limited under the current identified local plans, it is estimated that 3600 hundred buses will have to be purchased to maintain the existing levels of bus service. However, alternative fuel mandates and unforeseen demands capital and operational expansion may seriously impact on the region's ability to maintain existing transit service. Transit Program actions must include those that create additional stable revenue sources that fund expanded transit operations and enhance capital investment for the region's transit systems. Several long- and short-term financial actions that must be addressed, the short-term include: optimizing the use of existing resources to better serve transit; - prioritization of expenditures to minimize operating costs; and effective management and maintenance of existing capital investments.Long-range actions must address the need to finance and fund new operations to serve the region's growing population in support of mobility and air quality goals. Future revenue must be developed from a variety of sources that are not solely dependant on retail sales. A number of fee based new revenue sources are currently under discussion within the region. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 4-15 Chapter Four • Regional Transit (Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Achievement of an multi-modal centers-based transit network requires the integration and coordination of bus and fixed guideway projects with the other component parts of the Metropolitan Transportation System(MTS). ISTEA mandates require that the regional development of transit programs must be evaluated, prioritized and implemented on the basis of cost effectiveness, operational efficiency and the attainment of mobility and air quality objectives.Practical implementation of the tasks necessary to address operational and systemic issues should be incorporated into the planning process at an early stage, be given equal consideration as other mobility/air quality program options, be supported and complemented by demand programs and performance-based congestion management program objectives and incorporated into corridor/sub-area analyses or as part of the California Environmental Quality Act/National Environmental Policy Act (CEQA/NEPA) process. Additionally, these changes in process, assist in the implementation improved transit TCM programs (described in Chapter 11)and actions as required and identified by the Federal and California Clean Air Acts and be given priority in regional decision-making process with regard to project selection for funding. FINAL RME TRANSIT PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT The transit program mix included in the Constrained Project Alternative (The Project) is composed of existing bus (levels of bus service) plus identified rail projects (RTIP), and those projects for which funding currently exists can be expected to be reasonable available. In addition to the transit projects, The Project included a number or pricing and demand management actions. Completed model projection indicate that by 2010 that rail and bus will accommodate 11.8 percent or 1,403,000 trips of the approximately 11.9 million peak-hour home to work person trips. In addition to The project, another scenario was modeled which included a number of transit service enhancements. The enhancements included substantial bus and rail service expansion and potential impacts of service (feeders, circulators, Smart Shuttles)within activity centers (See Figures 4-8 and 4-9). Although transit program enhancements are currently not fundable, the modeling indicated that implementation of these enhancements could accommodate 12.6 percent or 1,498,000 trips of the approximately 11.9 million peak-hour person trips under this scenario. The mode split projection of the Project represents a substantial increase in the demand and use of public transportation services in the region. Clearly, given the existing program mix, to accommodate this substantial increase in use and to achieve an integrated multi-modal centers-based system will require the evaluation and coordination of critical operational, programmatic, and infrastructure issues: SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 4-16 AtWAlh • M D1 of (� ac LL C J Q O w a z m \ o Q z m m w m z m I O z a Q CD O w J Q w —� C7 `m a. C/ a r N - 0 m 0 _ w C/) J _ C 'c 7 ` ~ ' O W U- i d '� U Q i mo F— W I z W m C C W C C C h E! C d y Y m _ da w p v� O ^ Q LL W 0 Z I ch rn W m / 0 0 / Q CP / 0 v O c� — U) W r �j --- . O �• Z Q U) cn o , ! --, Wes ~ � i > ! U W Q J O f_ WW � I CW7 3 \ �� W c i � Y Cc _ cc cr) — m Cb v C I Chapter Four • Regional Transit Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Operationally, these include 1) The development of service criteria and objectives that support redeployment and reallocation of existing transit assets which increases service efficiency, complements and exploits demand management programs, CMP objectives, and maximizes user access to the system, 2) Expansion of express and limited stop bus programs that complement and "back-fills" rail programs, exploits the HOV network and adjacent and regional Park-and-Ride facilities and, 3) Provides access to regional airports, seaports and inter-city rail facilities. Programmatic issues address the types of local, circulator, shuttle and demand response (possibly jitney) service applications developed by and for the needs, objectives, and goals of individual activity centers, their host communities, and the adjacent sub-regional area(s). The emphasis of centers oriented development is to implement a number of traditional and non-traditional service applications which 1) Create additional transportation choice options, 2) Support existing bus and rail service, and 3) Support existing land-uses and planned or desired development. From the regional perspective, the existing public transportation network comprises 17 independent bus systems. This often times results in services that are duplicative, competitive, modally uncoordinated, and difficult for use by for the rider. Beyond the operational concerns, the feasibility, practicality and desirability of retaining an individual provider-oriented infrastructure needs to addressed and evaluated. Ultimately, the type of transit system infrastructure will greatly determine and impact regional transit systems' performance and associated investment decision-making. The development of succinct and defined infrastructure goals and objectives should be a priority transit program action. TRANSIT PLAN ACTIONS: As previously discussed,the program mix and support programs included as a part of the Regional Transit Strategy influence those specific actions which comprise Transit Program Actions. In addition to the specific capital program actions identified in Chapter 12, there are a number of other actions which support the continued development and implementation of a centers-based transit network. These actions are identified below: General Actions: 1. Undertake activities at the Federal, State, and Local levels that create and establish new revenue sources which provide additional funding for expanded transit capital and operational requirements. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 4-19 Chapter Four • Regional Transit (Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCUMEh7 21 1. Undertake activities which complete and implement the identified Inter-City, Commuter and Metro Rail programs to meet Mobility Plan goals and Air Quality Plan attainment. 3. Identify and prioritized the long & short-range transit implementation phasing along corridors and at the activity center level. 4. Meet "Project Milestones" for full accessibility as identified in approved implementation plans mandated and required in the AD Act, 1991. Transit Program Actions: 1. Identify and prioritized service requirements to Regional Activity Centers, Sub-centers and major attractor/generators at the Sub- regional level with specific focus on local distribution and connectivity to Intra-regional network. 2. Identify local/sub-regional transit service requirements to support and maximize access, egress and distribution with the emerging Rail Systems. 3. Define transit service requirements to support and use the emerging Transitway and HOV network. Specific focus onto integration with the other Intra-regional networks/facilities. 4. Identify transit service requirements to support and use existing and future Park-N-Ride Facilities. Specific focus on impacts to sub-regional and Intra-regional service. 5. Develop transit service requirements for the emerging Arterial HOV/Transitway facilities. 6. Identify,prioritized,establish financial costs and revenue sources required for Annual Operations, Capital Equipment and Support Facilities . 7. Identify relationship between Level-of-Service and route structures to attraction of existing & potential transit markets (user groups, present/future land use, facilities). 8. Develop and implement demand management strategy programs to meet activity center& sub-regional AVO and VMT reduction goals and regional air quality and transportation goals. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 4-20 r Chapter Four • Regional Transit Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCUMENT RECOMMENDED POLICIES The RME Transit Sub-group developed a number of recommended policies which are designed to support the development and implementation of a multi-modal centers-based transit system. As part of the development process, the recommended polices were presented to the other RME sub-groups, SCAG's Transit Advisory Committee, SCAG's Transportation and Communication Committee and Executive Committee. Public transportation programs should be considered an essential public service because of their social, economic, and environmental benefits. Implementation of new transit service or improvements in existing & expanded transit should be supportive of the Centers-Based Transit Network concept. Specific service types, levels and configuration should be determined by the local transit providers,transit users, local jurisdictions and applicable county transportation commissions. • Public transit services shall be designed to provide the maximum availability at times convenient for use. • Public transit services shall be designed to be available to for use without impediments. • Public transit services should be designed to provide maximum user utility. • New and expansion transit programs which are designed to meet the objectives of Transportation Control Measures contained in the AQMP shall receive priority for funding. • Local funding resources for transit should be used to leverage all available Federal Funding sources as applicable. • All existing and new public transit services, facilities and/or systems shall be fully accessible to persons with disabilities as defined, mandated, and required under the applicable Titles and Sections of the Americans With Disabilities Act, 1990 and the Rehabilitation Act, 1974. • All existing and new public transit services shall be provided in a manner which does not preclude use on the basis race, color and/or national origin as defined, mandated and required under Title 6 of the Civil Rights Act, 1964. SCAG• Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 4-21 I� Chapter Four • Regional Transit Bus and Rail) Program DRAFT DOCUMENT • All existing and new public transit services, facilities and/or systems shall evaluate the potential for private sector participation through the use of competitive procurement based on Fully Allocated Costing methodologies. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 4-22 CFI 1:1 `3R y u o REGIONAL STREETS AND HIGHWAYS PROGRAM INTRODUCTION The Regional Streets and Highways chapter is comprised of the freeways, High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) facilities, toll roads, and identified regionally significant arterials in the region. Major planning, funding and/or operational improvement programs that apply to the _ network include the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA), National Highway System(NHS),and Congestion Management System (CMS), five SCAG region Congestion Management Programs, the Caltrans Transportation System Management Program, the SCAG System of Regional Significance, the Los Angeles County and Orange County SMART Corridor/Superstreets programs, local government general plans, and other local programs. The 13 SCAG subregions also provided substantial input in the development of the Regional Streets and Highways program. Figure 5-1 shows the SCAG region highway system. In addition to the Constrained Alternative for mobility as related to roadways, the chapter contains a status report on the changes to the freeways and highways since 1989 followed by a description of 1990 travel conditions. Policies for the roadway program are also discussed. New to this chapter are discussions of opportunities for advanced technology and arterial high-occupancy vehicles facilities which could benefit the region in the quest to attain mobility goals. Mobility strategies contained in this RME chapter have potential for being integrated into the applicable air quality management plans for the air basins in the region. Further discussion of the TCMs can be found in Chapter 11, Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM)Programs. IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF THE REGIONAL STREETS AND HIGHWAYS PROGRAM The implementation status of the Regional Streets and Highways program is a partial reflection of the degree of funding available to local and state governments for implementing the recommended projects. Since 1989, jurisdictions within the region have obtained new funding sources, that apply to the regional streets and highways. Changes in funding sources include local sales tax propositions', the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA), and State Highway Programs. ' Ventura County has not adopted a sales tax measure for transportation. ` SCAG • Regional Mobility Element •December, 1993 Page 5-1 NOR— Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Status of Recommended State Highway and Freeway System Improvements Mixed-Flow Highway/Freeway: (1) A connection between I-15 and Route 91 was completed in June 1989. (2) The I-105 Freeway opened in October 1993. (3) The Environmental Impact Statement of the I-710 gap closure project is in the approval process' and Route 30 is on target to begin in 1996 with a completion date of 2003. (4) Improvements on Route 86 in Imperial County have progressed. SCAG included an extensive network of HOV lanes in the 1989 Regional Mobility Plan (RMP). Approximately 1,100 centerline miles of network were identified covering an extensive part of the freeway network. It was recognized that HOV lanes provide significant time savings incentives to form carpools and vanpools that relieve congestion, improve mobility, and assist in achieving improved air quality. In addition, a number of HOV facilities were identified as part of an improved transit system, providing exclusive right-of-way for express bus service, with in some cases, on-line stations, transportation centers, and Park-And- Ride facilities. High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) program: (1) New HOV facilities have opened on segments of Interstate 5, 405 and Route 57 in Orange County, Interstates 105 and 405 in Los Angeles County and a segment of Route 91 in Riverside County. (2)The Interstate 10 El Monte Busway was extended into the Los Angeles Central Business District. (3) Several hundred miles of HOV lanes are currently under construction on portions of Route 210, the 110 Busway, Route 91, and Route 405 (through the - interchange I-105). Additional HOV lanes will be constructed on almost all metropolitan freeways by 2010. Status of Arterial HOV Program HOV lanes are planned for construction on most of the congested segments of the regional freeway network by 2010. While these facilities will assist in reducing congestion on the freeway system, congestion on many of the streets and roads classified as arterials (both principal and minor) will become more severe. Although the 1989 RMP did not contain an arterial HOV program, many of the same measures that have been used to improve traffic flow on the freeway system have application to the region's arterial system. For example, HOV lanes—both for automobiles and public transit vehicles--on the congested non-freeway arterials can provide some relief. 2 A recent court decision has indicated that approval of all local jurisdictions is required before a freeway can be constructed. If this decision is affirmed by higher courts,the opposition to the recommended route by South Pasadena could effectively block completion of the Route 710 gap. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-2 Chapter Five Regional Streeu and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Arterial HOV lanes are designed to give preference and time savings to transit or carpools on arterial streets. The availability of an exclusive lane for transit buses reduces conflicts with mixed-flow traffic resulting in faster running times, reduced operating costs, lower bus emissions, and improved passenger attraction. The use of arterial HOV lanes is consistent with policies that encourage maximizing people-carrying capacity. Arterial HOV lanes may be placed on one-way streets, two-way streets with simple re-striping, in separate rights-of-way. They may be contra- flow (against the flow of traffic), concurrent flow (with the flow of traffic), or transit mall (reserved exclusively for the use of transit vehicles). Consideration should be given to the volume of transit patronage and carpool users, the number of vehicles to be operated, the degree of conflict with mixed-flow traffic, and the general suitability of adjacent land uses and access needs, when developing arterial HOV lanes. Arterial HOV lanes may also be considered in potential high- density transit corridors where rail improvements may not be viable due to high cost or lack of right-of-way. Two selection criteria, congestion duration and potential for improved transit operations make the HOV lanes effective in terms of performance measures, but also in the social and political sense of being visibly productive. The low costs of arterial HOV lanes and the potential for tangible operating costs savings and emission reductions from buses make implementation and measurement of immediate results possible. Arterial HOV Facilities. In downtown Los Angeles, a contra-flow bus lane expedites northbound public transit vehicle traffic on Spring Street. The Spring Street lane is only available to public transportation vehicles. Status of Recommended Local Streets and Roads System Improvements Capital improvements to the local streets and roads system were accomplished primarily through the Capital Improvement Programs of the region's CMPs, through the local sales tax measures and via city and county budgets. Status of Recommended Transportation System Management Improvements Jurisdictions within the SCAG region have implemented several of the TSM projects recommended in the 1989 Plan. Completed projects include signal synchronization, computerized signal systems, installation of ramp meters, and intersection improvements. The status of the TSM program can be found in the Appendix G of this document. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-3 1 0 Chapter Five ?egional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Status cif Toll Roads California highways, with some notable exceptions such as scenic drives on the Monterey Peninsula, have historically been toll-free. California statute does permit establishment of bridge districts and these districts have been able to construct facilities on the state highway system that charge tolls. In the SCAG region, the Vincent Thomas Bridge (between San Pedro and Terminal Island, on State Route 47), charges a toll for crossing. Recognizing an era of limited resources yet desirous of mitigating congestion through enhanced capacity, the state has enacted legislation that would permit public funds to be used to build conventional highways that would charge tolls for use. In the SCAG region, there are currently four toll projects: a parallel route to existing Route 91 between Orange and Riverside Counties, and four facilities within Orange County; an extension of Route 73 through the San Joaquin Hills; Route 241, known as the Eastern Corridor; and Route 231, known as the Foothill Corridor. The status of the projects is shown in Table 5-1. Three miles of the Foothill Tollway opened in October 1993. TABLE 5-1 STATUS OF THE TOLL ROAD PROJECTS Route Status Route 91 Final Design. Route 73(San Joaquin) EIR certified,EIS ROD adopted, 100%financing obtained,project in final design. Route 2411261(Eastern) EIR certified,Final EIS pending. Route 231 (Foothill) Construction carted on 7 miles of Foothill North with 3 miles opened in October 1993,EIR certified on Foothill South. SLAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-4 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page S-S EEL- SCAG REGIONAL HIGHWAY SYSTEM 1993 RME DRAFT i rI - '1 I 7 - - - - - - - • - - - - - -� � VENTURA LOS ANGELES 1 \ ' r ' 7 � r r - ORANGE 'S / LEGEND - - State Highway Freeway Source: CALTRANS SOUTIERN CKIFOWJU� 1�I�T�1 I►SSOCIATION OF fAVERNMEMS I \ n I SAN BERNARDINO i I 1 r 1 RIVERSIDE IMPERIAL I I I - + FIG 5-1 10/21193 - + Page 5-7 • Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT EXISTING (1990) REGIONAL SYSTEM OPERATING CONDITIONS Table 5-2 summarizes major performance indicators for the 1990 regional transportation system. The system supported a tremendous amount of trips on a daily basis and the dominant mode was solo-driving (75.6 percent). In 1990, the daily person trips and vehicle trips were 48.9 million and 34.3 million, respectively, yielding an average daily VMT of 283.8 million. As a consequence, the average speed on the regional transportation system was only about 31.8 miles per hour although about half of these trips took place on the region's extensive freeway system. The total daily hours of delay amounted to 1.5 million hours. TABLE 5-2 SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR 1990 REGIONAL SYSTEM FPerformance Indicators 1990—� Daily Person Trips 48,867,000 Daily Vehicle Trips 34,321.000 Daily VMT 283,776,000 Alone 75.6% Mode Split(HHW) Shared 18.8% Transit 5.58% Average Speed 31.8 Daily Hours Delay 1,527,000 Source: 1990 Validation of the Regional Transportation Model,March 1993 The poor operating status of the regional transportation system in 1990 is also demonstrated by traditional measures of roadway system performance, the level of service (LOS). A substantial portion of the region's freeway system experienced major congestion,especially around major activity centers (See Figure 2-2 in Chapter 2, Executive Summary, 1990 levels of service on the regional system). SCAG • Regional Mobility Element 0 December, 1993 Page 5-8 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT FRAMEWORK FOR DEVELOPING THE REGIONAL STREETS AND HIGHWAYS PROGRAM The Regional Streets and Highways program was developed in such a way to support regional goal attainment. The program supports alternatives to the SOV; it considers freight transportation and its links to the economy, and system operation. Moreover, it recognizes the critical issues related to the region's almost complete dependence on fossil fuels for mobility. These issues are addressed through provision of Park-And-Ride lots and HOV facilities that directly link activity centers and areas. The centers concept embraces the provision of transit and access via other modes such as walking and bicycling. System continuity,improved system operation, and enhanced fuel efficiencies are addressed by gap closures and technology. Regional Streets and Highways Program Development • Broaden the role of local arterial roadways in achieving mobility objectives. • Employ greater use of Smart Corridors, Superstreets, and technology. • Expand use of transportation system management. • Support transit through provision of freeway HOV facilities, and Park-And-Ride lots. • Develop arterial HOV facilities to support transit. • Use market pricing where appropriate as a strategy to achieve regional goals and objectives. Specific policies were formulated in the following areas: freeway, HOV and toll facility development, arterial HOV facilities, Smart Corridors, Superstreets, and TSM. POLICIES Freeway and HOV Facilities • HOV facilities shall be constructed and operated to encourage use of public and private transit, carpools, vanpools and other HOV. • In addition to increasing occupancy thresholds on HOV facilities, consideration should be given to additional or expanded HOV capacity in the corridor. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-9 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT • Alternative modes and projects shall be developed and implemented where implementation of HOV element projects is demonstrated to be unfeasible due to widespread local opposition. • HOV lanes shall be provided for in new facility construction and for capacity enhancements of existing facilities in accordance with the HOV program. Toll Facilities • Toll facilities shall be designed, operated, and priced to encourage use of public and private transit, carpools, vanpools, and other HOV. AVO of the toll facilities shall be comparable to similar HOV facilities. • Pricing policies may be applied to maintain appropriate levels of service on facilities. Arterial HOV Facilities • Necessary steps to develop and implement arterial HOV facilities in support of transit and rideshare activities shall be initiated. Smart Corridors and Superstreets a Necessary steps to develop and implement Smart Corridors and Superstreets to achieve regional mobility objectives shall be initiated. Transportation System Management 6, Expanded transportation system management by local jurisdictions will be encouraged. • The development and application of management systems by local jurisdictions as a means to optimize the expenditure of scarce maintenance, operating and capital funds should be supported. • New transportation infrastructure will incorporate advanced system technologies, where appropriate. • TSM activities throughout the region shall be coordinated among jurisdictions. o Methods to improve safety and reduce incidents on the regional transportation system should be considered. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-10 Chapter Five * Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT SUBREGIONAL INPUT Subregional input, as a part of this bottom-up planning process, is comprised of significant issues of concern as they relate to regional streets and highways. Tables 5-3 and 5-4 depicts subregional input as related to the regional program. TABLE S-3 SUBREGIONALLY RECOMMENDED IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAM Subregion Program Stators Recomm"Aatiou Imperial Highway *Caltrans will build SR-7 north from the *Recognizing the new East Port of Entry and support for County new Port of Entry to connect with east- federal funding to expedite solutions to transportation Association of west SR-98 located about a mile north of problems in the vicinity of the new Port of Entry,namely Governments the Port of Entry boundary. Strong local the widening of SR-98 and the extension of SR-7 to 1-8. interest exists to extend SR-7 north from *Continuing sensitivity to Imperial County's unique SR-98 to connect with I-8. planning considerations. *Work with Caltrana and Imperial County to provide a more detailed county transportation plan,which highlights the future regional transportation projects. Arroyo Verdugo Advanced N/A •Goals&Objectives: Explore and encourage new Technology transportation technologies that will improve safety and efficiency and provide clean fuel alternatives for all transportation modes. Arroyo Verdugo CMP N/A *Goals&Objectives: Ensure a transportation network that is consistent with federal and state clean air and congestion management requirements and mandates. Arroyo Verdugo HOV *The 2010 projected traffic conditions •Incorporate HOV lanes on appropriate freeway corridors for all corridors in the Arroyo Verdugo and enhance access. Subregion will worsen over existing conditions. - Arroyo Verdugo TSM *Operational programs provide unique •Improve signing and ramps from the eastbound I-134 opportunities for interagency Freeway to the northbound freeway to improve connection coordination,whereby the cities of the between Ventura and Golden State freeways. Arroyo-Verdugo Subregion can address *Accelerate TSM projects as short-term,low cost both regional and local mobility and congestion relief measures. clear air goals. Arroyo Verdugo Highway *By the year 2010,the I-S,I-134,1- N/A 210 freeways and Rte.2 will experience during the three hour afternoon peals period. Western TSM/TDM N/A *Goal: Maximize the efficient use of the circulation Riverside system and minimize congestion through the use of TSM Council of and TDM strategies. Governments *Objective: Implement TSM measures to reduce congestion and optimize the operations of the roadway system. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-11 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Subregion Program Status Recommendation Western Highway 9SR-91 through Corona and Ortega *Goal: Support completion of an adequate roadway system Riverside Highway(SR-74)has some of the which provides for the safe and efficient movement of Council of highest future congestion levels in the people and goods in rural and developing areas. Governments subregion. •Objective: Encourage the preservation of rights-of-way 0I-15 between SR-91 and SR-74,the I- for future transportation facilities. 15 Freeway is projected to be *Objective: Complete the planned subregional roadway significantly over capacity. system. •SR-60 Corridor-the forecasts indicate *Objective: Maintain acceptable levels of service on the high levels of congestion on the 60 subregional network. freeway from the San Bernardino County *Objective: Complete gaps in the State highway network. line on the west to its split with I-215 in Moreno Valley. *North-South Corridor to San Bernardino County-The[roads linking Moreno Valley and Calimeaa with San Bernardino County to the north are projected to experience significant congestion. •Gilman Springs Corridor-This link between San Jacinto and Moreno Valley is projected to experience significant congestion,particularly between Jack Rabbit Trail and Alessandro Blvd. *Route 79 South-This segment of Route 79,which follows Winchester RD. through Murriets and Temecula,is particularly a problem between 1-15 and Murrieta Hot Springs Rd. San Bernardino N/A N/A N/A Associated Governments Southeast Los Highway The Southeast Los Angeles County •Cooperatively identify within SELAC a surface arterial Angeles County subregion has important functions related system and implementation program that reflects current Subregion to basic industry,general transportation, transportation elements of local general plant as the basis goods movement and world trade. for influencing the SCAG Regional Comprehensive Plan. *Work within the SELAC area or appropriate subareas within it to establish consensus on priorities for principal arterial highway development(such as Pacific Coast Highway,Firestone,Imperial,and Florence Avenues for aw/west access,and Rosemead,Lakewood,Whinier,and Washingtion Boulevards for north/south access). •Work with SCAG and MTA to facilitate arterial and transit linkage improvements by closely interfacing with existing modes of transportation(buses,etc.)within the Subregion. •Work with MTA to improve access to the existing regional transportation system in specific areas identified by affected Cities to benefit SELAC communities. *Study and make recommendations on methods and locations to improve the arterial system to increase accessibility to transit systems throughout the Subregion, taking advantage of research and data already completed on this subject. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element 0 December, 1993 Page 5-12 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Subregion Program Status Recomtamdation Southeast Los Advanced N/A •Continue to improve and expand existing modes and Angeles County Technology initiate pilot studies in selected areas to test feasibility and Subregion cost effectiveness of new technological approaches which avoid building substantial new infrastructure. •Support policies that further new technologies such as telecommuting,electric vehicles and alternative fuels in the Regional Comprehensive Plan. South Bay Highway N/A •Improve key transportation corridors and facilities Cities identified by subregions. Association •rove key links in the arterial highway system identified by subregions,both in terms of capacity and operational improvements. South Bay Advanced N/A •Provide for the testing and evaluation of new technologies Cities Technology to reduce travel demand,increase system capacity,improve Association operations and achieve cost effective information to users of the transportation system. *Policies: Pursue new technologies to reduce travel demand,increase capacity,improve operations,and provide information to drivers and transit passengers. South Bay TSM N/A *Policies: Implement significant improvements on existing Cities arterials and primary corridors within the Subregion. Association Improvements which increase the efficiency of the current system(e.g.signal synchronization)arc particularly important. Forth Los Highway *The North Los Angeles County •Goals/Policies: Facilitate the implementation of major Angeles County subregion considers SR 138 as high transportation improvement projects on the regional freeway Subregion priority with potential for encouraging and local arterial system. economic development. Also,serving as •Goals/Policies: Implement new east-west by-pass in a bypass of the Los Angeles Basin. Santa Clarity Planning Area. •Goals/Policies: Implement new east-west by-pass in the northern portion of the subregion. •GoaWPolicies: Implement critical Circulation Element improvements from local General Plans. •GoaWPolicies: Optimize the operating efficiency of existing and future transportation systems. Goalc/Poiicies: Ensure subregionsl input is considered in planning and funding allocations for transportation improvements. Ventura N/A N/A N/A Council of Governments Coachella Highway N/A Regional Arterial Program Valley Association of Governments City of Los Toll •Pricing the use of the transportation N/A Angeles Facilities system(e.g.toll roads)may be a good tool to reduce congestion.This should not be implemented solely as a revenue generating source for other uses but as a source of funding the system for which fees are collected. Pricing of such facilities should be based also on car occupancy. SCA G 0 Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-13 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Subregion Program Status Recommendation City of Los Advanced *The Subregion favor high-technology N/A Angeles Technology solutions that enhance the carrying capacity(mobility)of existing facilities such solutions include ATSAC,SMART Corridor,and IVHS. San Gabriel Highway •A HOV lane is being developed along *Facilitate the implementation of all San Gabriel Valley Valley the I-210. projects programmed in the state and local Highway *Environmental review,clearance and Element of the Regional Transportation Improvement design efforts for the Foothill Freeway Programs for Fiscal Years 1993-1999. (Route 30)and Long Beach Freeway 0- *Complete the environmental review,design,and 710)gap closures and upgrade of the 4- programming of funds for Rte.30 and 1-710 gap closures to lane Corona Expressway(Route 71)to a the satisfaction of the affected cities. full freeway are in progress. *Continue multi jurisdictional cooperation in Valleywide *Proposed HOV lanes on the Pomona signal synchronization projects,including Main Street/Las Freeway(SR 60)between SR 57 and the Tunas/Arrow Highway,Fremont,Atlantic,Garfield, San Bernardino County line and on SR Huntington Drive and other major projects. 57 from SR 60 to the Orange County •Identify,evaluate,prioritize and support,through multi- line. jurisdictional cooperation in the Valley,the most effective *Extension of the El Monte Busway subregional projects such as: the Rte.71 improvement to from its current terminus in the City of upgrade the expressway o a full freeway;Route 60/57 El Monte easterly to the San Bernardino interchange improvements;'Smart Corridors on Rte.60, County line. 10,and 210;Baseline Road improvements including realignment and widening from Foothill Blvd.to the San Bernardino County line;Valley Blvd.capacity enhancement projects between Route 710 and Santa Anita Ave.;Bridge widenings across the 1-605 Freeway. *Complete the implementation of HOV lanes along Foothill 1-210 Freeway. •Design and extend El Monte Busway(Route 10 HOV)to San Bernardino County Line. •Pursue development of HOV lanes along Rte. 134,Rte. 60 and 1-605 Freeways. •Suppott the implementation of multi-county HOV projects on Rte.57,Rte.60,and Rte.30. •Identify,evaluate,prioritize and support,through multi- jurisdictional cooperation in the Valley. Orange County N/A N/A N/A Westside Highways •CMP. Numerous traffic and *Continue pursuing improved capacity of existing arterials Summit Cities transportation studies of the streets and through such programs as 'smart corridors'and signal highways system have been completed in systems. the Wesuide cities over the past several •Identify a surface arterial system and implementation years. The State highways and principal program that reflects current transportation elements of arterials included in the CMP system on local general plans as the basis for influencing the SCAG the Westside include: Pacific Coast Regional Comprehensive Plan. Highway(SR 1), Lincoln Blvd/Santa *Work with the City and County of Los Angeles to Monica Blvd.(SR 2),Santa Monica establish consensus on priorities for improving principal Freeway(1-10),Marina Fwy.(SR 90), arterials that link the cities. San Diego Freeway(1-405),Venice *Work with SCAG and MTA to facilitate arterial/transit Blvd.(SR 187),Wilshire Blvd from linkage improvements,particularly buses. Ocean Ave.to the Harbor Fwy(SR •Work with MTA to improve access to the existing 110),and La Cienegs Blvd.from 1-405 regional transportation system in specific areas identified by to I-10. affected cities to benefit the Westside cities. •Study and nuke recommendations on methods and locations to improve the arterial system to increase accessibility to transit systems throughout subregion. 0Identify all available funding opportunities for arterial improvements. SCAG• Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-14 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUM£AT TABLE 5-4 SCAG REGION SUBAREA INPUT Subarea Program Status Recommendation The Four Highway •Imperial Hwy. The planned improvements for Imperial N/A Corners Highway include the upgrade of Imperial to a Super Street Transportation (recently renamed "Smart Street" by OCTA) from the LA County Study line to Santa Ana Canyon Road. The short-term improvements include the widening of Imperial to six-lanes, with related intersection improvements. The long-term plan is to widen Imperial to eight lanes. •SR-57. The improvements planned for SR-57 involve the addition of one high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane in each direction from Lambert Road in Orange County to the I-10/1-210 interchange in Los Angeles County. •SR-71. The planned improvements involve the upgrade of SR- 71, and construction of related improvements, from 1-10 in Los Angeles County to SR-91 in Riverside County, including the interchange improvements at SR-71 and SR-60. The Final Environmental Impact Statement-Improvements to SR-71 between I-10 and SR-91 indicates that the preferred alternative is a six-to eight-lane freeway. *SR-60. The project involves widening SR-60 for HOV lanes additions in LA County,with an expanded extension to I-710, and from the LA/San Bernardino County line to the San Bernardino/Riverside County line in San Bernardino County. 01-10. The project involves the addition of HOV lanes from 1-5 to the LA/SB County line and from I-5 to 1-405. Both projects are identified in the LACTC 30-year fundable plan. The addition of two HOV lanes is also planned for I-10 from the LA County line to Route 83 and from Route 83 to Route 15 in San Bernardino. *Carbon Canyon Rd. (Route 142)/Soquel Canyon/Tonner Canyon. The project involves the widening of one or more of the three roads. •SR-91. The project involves the widening of SR-91 to add HOV lanes. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-15 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT RECOMMENDED REGIONAL STREETS AND HIGHWAYS PROGRAM The program recommends capacity expansions, enhanced system management, and feasibility studies to be implemented by the CTCs, the Transportation Corridor Agencies (TCAs), Caltrans and local jurisdictions. The seven-year Capital Improvement Programs of the 1992 Congestion Management Programs were found to be consistent with the 1989 RMP and compatible with adjacent county(ies) CMPs. As such, the CMPs were incorporated into the Action Element of the RME as authorized by CMP legislation. Capacity Expansions Figure 5-2 shows the proposed mixed-flow capacity expansion projects to be implemented as a part of the Constrained Alternative. Figure 5-3 shows proposed HOV capacity expansion projects included in the alternative. For reference purposes, existing HOV lanes are also shown on Figure 5-3. In total, 2,770 additional lane miles of mixed-flow and HOV capacity are proposed. Table 5-5 shows the breakdown of total mixed-flow and HOV lane mileage to be added by location within the region. Of the 2,770 additional lane miles, mixed-flow freeway capacity expansions comprise 55 percent (1,527 lane miles) while expansions for HOV comprise 45 percent (1,243 lane miles). TABLE 5-5 TOTAL MIXED-FLOW & HOV LANE MILES ADDED BY COUNTY 1990 - 2010 County Total MXed- %of HOV Lane %of Added Flow Lane Total Miles Total Lane Miles Noes by County Imperial 137 137 100 0 0 Los Angeles 1,031 223 22 808 78 Orange 800 601 75 199 25 San Bernardino 390 269 69 121 31 Riverside 327 212 65 115 35 Ventura 85 85 100 0 0 Total 2,770 J 527 55 1,243 45 Source: 1993 RME Constrained Project 1990-2010 Note: Includes new facilities,widening of existing facilities and toll roads. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-16 F 00 ONIOUVNU313 NYS '00 301SH3AW ci J � Q r° �--' 1--- a Ch w Li / U) Q 00 00310 NVS w i Z s w 0 N / I - t Q Z Lu � - - - < / - a I I co i o W N ) '�w g m W ' _ 0 Z L� OEn I Cl) t U � 0 1 � I W r = 0 i > °u, of Im LL H a. > z I d X i E c o y �- cc I o X 1 Z (D x o o W �(`, 3 UJ I J g o Q o c 1 ¢ c 5,s 5s y Q O Q O a. t s c° 071Rlf11N3A O 7 00 ONIC18VNH39 NVS 00 301Sd3AIU /LILJ Ln Lu w > o ?� I ) / Q I z z f t m z I Q � (n O v' _ cn w Cn >� w - Cn I w Q W w z I Q o• • /' m U)Q Cn - (,jJ w J 0 01 - of t J i4 LL z \Q I I - c Q .I 41 ;5 �R ( 1 I to C I y C m 'ffi d zC� i _ O > E o ff to o WU ' COI ZO a d fnc � z TT M� Z / �'} v� o c a Fro`- > COD ; 0T) LL w J C N 0>,U) !s 0) >I > / !A O J TV / W OOi N UU d y I , 41 ~ L c ; N o '00%fUrUN3A Z Chapter Five 0 Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMEA7 Expansions due to new facility construction and widening of existing facilities. Table 5-6 shows the breakdown of capacity expansions by improvement type. The construction of new facilities will add 957 miles of capacity. Of the new facility mileage, approximately 75 percent will serve mixed-flow traffic while, 25 percent will be HOV only. Existing facilities will be expanded by 1,813 lane miles. Of this total, 56 percent will be HOV while 44 percent will be mixed-flow. TABLE 5-6 PROPOSED CAPACITY EXPANSIONS BY IMPROVEMENT TYPE 1990-2010 county Mixed-Flow(lane miles) 11 HOV pane maes) Construction Additions to Total Construction Additions Total of New Existing of New to Existing Facilities Facilities Facilities Facilities Imperial 34 103 137 0 0 0 Los Angeles 28 195 223 28 780 808 Orange 466 135 601 146 53 199 Riverside 0 212 212 0 115 115 San 184 85 269 62 59 121 Bernardino Ventura 9 1 76 85 0 0 0 Total 721 806 1527 236 1007 1243 Source: 1993 RME Constrained Project Freeway HOV. Discussions with Caltrans, county transportation commissions and transit operators indicate a continued support for HOV lanes as a mobility strategy for the region. Additional HOV lanes have been identified and commitments to building routes identified in the 1989 RMP are filling new identified demands. Connections between segments of the HOV system also need to be developed, including the creation of direct HOV ramp connectors where costs and conditions warrant. The reasonably funded infrastructure actions in the RME maintain the commitment to completion of the freeway HOV system. Long-range Freeway-Based HOV Expansion. HOV expansion is recommended on portions of the Interstates 15, 10, 15, 215, and Route 101 beyond 2010. Local Streets and Roads Improvements The projects that specifically pertain to the local streets and roadways in the CMP CIPs are recommended as the local streets and roads improvement program. Table 5-7 summarizes the seven-year CIP SCAC • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-19 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMEIV? projects of the 1992 CMPs by the type of improvement. A total of $1.93 billion will be spent, (44.7 percent), will be spent on CMP local streets improvements. Subregions have also developed arterial street programs that serve local and in some cases, regional travel. Through its Regional Arterial Program, Coachella Valley acknowledges that regional transportation issues have been and will continue to be a primary concern in efforts to relieve congestion and provide subregional mobility. The Coachella Valley Area Transportation Study(CVATS)identifies street and highway needs through the year 2010. Mechanisms to fund these programs include Coachella Valley portions of Riverside County's Measure A sales tax and a Transportation Uniform Mitigation Fee (TUMF). Forty percent of Coachella Valley's share of Measure A is estimated to generate approximately $126 million during its 20-year life. The Expenditure Plan Iinks the implementation of a TUMF to the Regional Arterial portion of the sales tax measure. Of the $800 million system identified by the CVATS, approximately $590 million worth are approved as "Regional Arterials". The projects include seven new or improved freeway interchanges, six new or improved railroad crossing south of I-10, twelve new or improved bridges across the Whitewater River, twenty new or improved major arterials including the proposed Midvalley Parkway, and eleven new or improved bridges over other channels. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Pnoo S_7/1 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 5-7 SUMMARY OF CMP CIP PROJECTS COST OF D14PROVEN1[ENT COUNTY TYPE OF (million dollars) "ROVEMENT Iighways and Local Streets Only Local Streets Capacity Enhancement 178.0 8.9 LOS System Management 68.6 7.8 ANGELES Other 44.1 0.0 Capacity Enhancement 712.2 700.9 ORANGE System Management 511.4 260.3 Other 31.0 31.0 Capacity Enhancement 36.2 6.0 RIVERSIDE System Management 23.1 3.8 Other 12.0 7.6 Capacity Enhancement 1,682.7 278.7 SAN System Management 621.2 522.2 BERNARDINO Other 90.0 86.1 Capacity Enhancement 57.0 6.0 VENTURA System Management 249.5 3.8 Other 0.0 7.6 Capacity Enhancement 2,666.0 1,000.5 SUB-TOTAL System Management 1,474.0 797.9 Other 177.0 132.3 TOTAL $4,317.0 51,930.7 Sources: 1.San Bernardino Associationof Governments,Congestion Management Program for San Bernardino County,November 1992 2.Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority,Congestion Management Program for Los Angeles County,December 1992 3.Riverside County Transportation Commission,Congestion Management Program for Riverside County,December 1992 4. Orange County Transportation Authority, Congestion Management Program for Orange County,December 1992 5. Ventura County Transportation Commission, Congestion Management Program for Ventura County,December 1992 SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-21 • Chapter Five Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Arterial HOV Lane Opportunities. Exclusive arterial lanes to support transit operations or as facility components of projects such as the Santa Monica Boulevard Corridor, offer improvements in mobility through improvements in transit reliability, speed, safety, and operating efficiency. Further, some evidence suggests reduced congestion conflicts can improve the emissions from transit buses and improving air quality. The RME recommends the development of arterial HOV lanes where opportunities with appropriate conditions can result in improved transit operations, or can encourage shared rides through time savings to users. Nine potential arterial HOV candidate corridors have been identified for the purposes of modeling and to determine their potential in achieving mobility objectives. 1. Olive Street: from Olympic Boulevard to Fourth Street. 2. Hill Street: from Olympic Boulevard to Temple Street. 3. Broadway: from Olympic Boulevard to Temple Street. 4. Vermont Avenue: from Exposition to Santa Monica Boulevard. S. Santa Monica Boulevard: from Sepulveda to Century City. 6. Century Boulevard: from Interstate 405 to LAX. 7. La Tijera/Sepulveda Boulevards: from Interstate 405 to LAX. 8. Colorado Boulevard: through Eagle Rock (Tri-Cities Corridor). 9. In corridors that access Metrorail stations where high volumes of buses occur (Alvarado Street, Ventura Boulevard etc). The potential for additional lanes, both for the exclusive use of public transportation and for the mixed use of public transportation and carpools should be examined. Both transit-only and transit/carpool HOV lanes on other principal arterials should be studied. Similar facilities may have application in other areas of the region. Transportation System Management Recommended TSM improvements include freeway ramp metering and construction of Park-and-Ride lots (see Figures 5-4 and 5-5), changeable message signs, and closed-circuit televisions (CCTV). Ramp meters control the pace at which vehicles enter a highway. Timed entry allows vehicles to merge safely without impeding existing traffic. This diminishes the bottlenecking often associated with on-ramps because the controlled access rate matches the highway's ability to absorb the additional traffic. Although motorists incur a delay on the ramp, the mainline capacity is enhanced and travel time and speeds are improved. Metered on-ramps also include HOV bypass lanes so that carpools, buses and motorcycles can bypass the queue. Park-and-Ride facilities are constructed along major transit corridors to serve as staging areas for single-occupant motorists to join carpools or board public transit for the trip to work. The lots also provide convenient meeting spots for shopping and recreational trips. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-22 p7 ONIOWNkl38 NVS 0D 301S63AW N O ' I � \\ N � � h W � LLJ r o' Q Q LU I IM / I • / .. �� It o (n c ' � I � I i I I w• ' I % _ cn J W f Q � `€ U) - i O , -j - ' l w Cl) O ` j a. cl) � 0 Cc , ) cc L.0 i W O I o ' E E I Q o Z ( ' Z LU o c ` Wa d -° j �. W R J ¢ i o W cn I y g l � z I O w a ¢ Ve O ! Cl) '00 ONIOUYNtl39 NYS _— M 'QC 30iStl3Aitl W ' h W v c > CC m - W I m m r H Z Q R', R' I / �• LL CD -� I • \ � � W -- -- - -- - -- / - - - - _ - t / Q • O r � R ~ �I • 1 .•e i J I e •e e i I - _ ' J I Z c LU E _ � > / -° O I O — m CC 0 z W !; • CD ~ c ! CC i M > > > 0 < cri J m r I o�nnwiw..rns I C,;apter Five 0 Regional Streets and Highways Program DR,4F7 DOCUMENT Changeable message signs aid navigation around freeways events that cause congestion and delay while CCTV allows for surveillance of the network to detect delay, incidents, accidents and facilitate actions to reduce the duration of delay. Safety and Accident/Incident Management Caltrans, the county transportation commissions and the California Highway Patrol (CHP) currently employ various incident management programs. Mechanisms that allow for recovering the costs of incident/accident clean-up through incentive fees should also be examined. Efforts should be made to quantify and evaluate the impacts of accidents and incidents on the region's roadways. Mechanisms that address the accident/incident cost recovery should be investigated for possible implementation. ANTICIPATED MOBILITY BENEFITS OF THE CONSTRAINED PROJECT ALTERNATIVE Under the Constrained Project, travel on the regional system will be significantly worse in terms of average daily speed and hours of delay. The system will operate at an average daily speed of 27.5 miles per hour (mph) compared to a speed of 31.8 mph in 1990. Hours of delay will increase by 145.32 percent between 1990 and 2010. P.M. peak travelers will encounter a somewhat higher level of delay compared to the morning peak. Overall, person trips and vehicle trips will climb 34.8 percent and 29.10 percent, respectively. Daily VMT will increase by 45 percent. Despite these relatively large increases, however, home-to-work vehicle trip- making is expected to increase less than 12 percent (11.94 percent); the average vehicle ridership (AVR) will improve as well, increasing by 11.20 percent. Transit ridership is expected to gain some of the former private vehicle commuters. The transit mode split for the home-to-work trip is expected to more than double from 5.58 percent to 11.8 percent. ` Shared ride trips will increase by 2.12 percent while the drive alone share will actually decline by 19.05 percent. REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT PLANNING TOOLS SCAG Region Congestion Management System(CMS) In its March 2, 1993 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, the Federal Department of Transportation released draft regulations for congestion management system (CMS) development and implementation. Pursuant to the proposed rules, as the designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for a transportation metropolitan area over 200,000 in population, SCAG has lead responsibility to develop a Congestion SCAG • Regional Mobilin• Element • December, 1993 Page 5-25 Chaorer Five • Regional Streets and HighwaNls Program DRIFT DOCUMENT Management System for the region. The CMS must be operational by October 1, 1994. The proposed rule also provides that the CMPs can satisfy the Congestion Management System for the region if they are determined by the Secretary to meet the requirements of the CMS. CMS Requirements The CMS will consist of a systematic process that provides information on transportation system performance for selecting and implementing cost-effective strategies to manage new and existing facilities so that traffic congestion is alleviated and the mobility of persons and goods is enhanced. The CMS is to enhance transportation investment decisions and improve the overall efficiency of the metropolitan area's transportation systems and facilities. The CMS is required to do the following: • Identify the geographic area (regional) of coverage and the transportation facilities available in the area where congestion is occurring, or where the potential for congestion exists within a Transportation Management Area, based on acceptable level of transportation system performance. • Identify the causes of the congestion, evaluate the strategies for managing congestion and enhancing mobility. • Develop a plan for the implementation of the most effective strategies. • Ensure that the performance measures provide for the identification and monitoring of the extent of both recurring and non-recurring congestion, and the evaluation of the effectiveness of congestion reduction and mobility enhancement strategies. • Provide a continuous program of data collection and system monitoring to determine the magnitude and duration of congestion. • The CMS also requires that implementation responsibilities,time frame for the implementation, and probable funding sources be identified. It should be noted that these CMS requirements are in accord with proposed rules promulgated by the Federal Department of Transposition (DOT). Final rules have not been released. Options for CMS Development and Implementation As part of its CMS responsibilities, SCAG has identified at least three SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-26 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT options for possible development and implementation as follows: Qption 1• The Existing State CMPs as The Regional CM_S. SCAG's evaluation of the existing CMPs indicates that they do not meet the statutory requirements of the CMS. Adopted CMPs do not contain all necessary elements of the CMS and do not meet the scope of the requirements. Qption 2• Amended State CMPs as the Regional CMS. This alternative would involve amending the CMPs with the CMS as the specific reference to make them compatible with the requirements of the CMS. The evaluation concluded that CMS development and implementation was best achieved under the auspices of a centralized mechanism rather than through the efforts of five different approaches that would ultimately require coordination, cooperation, and a comprehensive program scope. This alternative would insure that the CMPs were based on the policies of the Regional Transportation Plans. The Statewide Air Quality—CMP Coordination Study has implications for the development of the regional CMS. The Study is expected to be completed in Spring 1994. Although the Study scope was designed to meet several objectives, CMS and CMP coordination is being considered. Hence, the study may recommend amendments to the CMP legislation that could possibly become effective in 1995. Qption 2A• Amended State CMPs as the Regional CMS. Option 2A is a variation on Option 2: The existing CMPs would serve as the CMS in those functions where they can meet the CMS requirements and the SCAG RME would serve as the CMS in areas where the CMPs are lacking. This alternative would not be sensitive to the Statewide Air Quality—CMP Coordination Study. This approach was rejected because of the fractured nature of the development and implementation process. Qption 3• SCAG region CMS as a element of the RME. The SCAG transportation plan would serve as the primary basis for development and implementation of the CMS. The RME contains all required elements of the CMS and the RME comprehensive, coordinated and cooperative development process currently exists and is well established. Moreover, the RME has statutory linkage to the state CMPs through the required consistency and compatibility of the CMPs with the RME and their incorporation into the RME. SCAG also has the statutory authority to resolve intercounty disputes between the CMPs. This alternative though similar to Option 2 does not go far enough in achieving the required linkages. The Preferred CMS Alternative SCAG is cooperating with Caltrans, Congestion Management Agencies, and others to amend the California Congestion Management statutes to SCAG • Regional Mobility Elemew • December, 1993 Page 5-27 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT provide for improved linkages between the CMPs and the region's comprehensive transportation planning process. Other issues associated with RME/CMS development and implementation will continue to be addressed in Fiscal Year 1994 to meet statutory deadlines. A formalized process for affected agency input is under development. SCAG will make a final determination on the CMS by October 1994. The System of Regional Significance The regional transportation plan must describe the transportation system (including, but not necessarily limited to major roadways, transit, and multi-modal and intermodal facilities) that should function as an integrated Metropolitan Transportation System (MTS), giving emphasis to those facilities that serve important national and regional transportation functions'. The definition of the MTS will be examined and an improved definition developed, based on issues raised by county transportation commissions, Caltrans, and others,subsequent to adoption of the 1993 RME. The existing SCAG System of Regional Significance(SRS)was approved in the 1989 Regional Mobility Plan and consists of approximately 3,380 miles of federal and state highways in addition to 3,450 miles of major arterials. Arterials are defined as roads that transport 10,000 or more average daily traffic (ADT) and carry significant volumes of traffic on routes seven miles or more in length`. (See Figure 5-6 System of Regional Significance.) In connection with ongoing efforts to better integrate the regions systems of highways, transit, airports, harbors etc. the SRS will be further refined according to the following criteria: • Arterials parallel to a freeway that can be used as alternate routes. • Routes that provide access to major activity centers such as amusement parks, regional shopping centers, and military bases. • Routes that are included in each county's CMP. • Goods movement routes including both truck routes and rail lines (including rural agricultural routes that provide goods to the region). 3 23 U.S.C. 134(g)(2)(A) ' The definition for regionally significant was adopted as part of the Regional Transportation Improvement Program Guidelines. Some county transportation commissions have suggested that the arterial definition should vary by county, and that issues will be considered and resolved during the public review of the RME. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-28 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highwm's Program DRAFT DOCUMEM• THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-29 1989 SYSTEM OF REGIONAL SIGNIFICANCE 1993 RME DRAFT I , A VENTURA LOS ANG E E r LEGEND Freeway Arterial A Air Carrier Airport P Port Source: County Transportation Commissions n SOUTH"GOVERNWMENTS \( iF ASSOCIATION OF _ SAN BERNARDINO RIVERSIDE IMPERIAL - - - FIG. 5-6 12/2/93 Page 5-31 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMENT • Fixed transit routes such as light rail and commuter rail, and express bus routes. • Intermodal transfer facilities. • TDM facilities such as telecommunication centers,park-and-ride lots, bicycle transportation facilities, pedestrian walkways, and others; and • TSM facilities such as ramp metering, Smart Corridors, Changeable Message Signs (CMS), Closed Circuit TV (CCTV), and others. • Review 10,000 as the threshold figure for Average Daily Traffic (ADT) in defining arterials. National Highway System The National Highway System (NHS) is one component of the MTS. The NHS will consist of the interstates, a number of strategic highways needed for national defense purposes, strategic highway connectors, and selected principal arterials. Recommendations for the NHS were cooperatively developed by the state of California and the Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) and are shown in Figure 5-7. Congress is expected to approve the NHS by September, 1995. Until that time, the NHS consists of the interstates and streets and roads currently classified as principal arterials. While the NHS in the SCAG region comprises only 15 percent of the mileage of the MTS, slightly more than 50 percent of the region's VMT takes place on the system. Efforts continue to refine the system based upon expanded criteria that are intended to integrate and focus planning efforts on the roadway system as a comprehensive whole and as a part of the overall MTS. RELATIONSHIP OF THE REGIONAL STREETS AND HIGHWAYS PROGRAM TO THE CONGESTION MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS The Congestion Management Programs (CMPs) for Ventura, Orange, Riverside, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino counties are incorporated into the RME. California Government Code §65089(b)(5) requires that a seven-year Capital Improvement Program (CIP) be developed as a part of the CMP. The CIP is designed to maintain or improve traffic level of service and transit performance standards, to mitigate land use impacts, and to conform to vehicle emissions mitigation strategies. Dependent upon the county, the roadway component of the CIP pertains to freeways and highways or arterials, or all three. SCAG • Regional Mobilin Element • December, 1993 Page 5-32 m low _o tin �. P Q ?` w C a _ O Z 0 ¢ w z 0 z t: �) w a: m w _> ��- < ¢ 0 Z w 0 z a: , O cn J t W z ' t Q _ S � J LU L Q f— Y O >- , Ci) cc Q O Z Q W s O = O = cn z m cc 3 j W a) 'E CU Q a r 0) V C7 � 05 W J a: vtivsdve•I%V$ I _ U 7 0 c= Chapter Fite • Regional Streets and Highwm's Program DRAFT DOCUMEA T An important aspect of the CMPs is the desired integration of the capital improvement strategies with both transit and transportation demand management actions and deficiency plans tied to mitigate specific land- use developments. While the CMP is best viewed as a whole rather than in its constituent parts, the Regional Streets and Highways analysis deals only with the roadway portion of the programs. Transportation Demand Management (TDM), transit, and land use are dealt with in Chapter 3, Regional TDM and Chapter 4, Regional Transit and Inter-city Rail Program. ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY IN TRANSPORTATION Advanced technology can be used to enhance the LOS provided by the existing roadway network without having to increase capacity. These advanced technologies include Smart Streets/Corridors, Intelligent Vehicle Highway System (IVHS), applying electronics, communications or information processing to improve the efficiency and safety of the surface transportation system. Table 5-8 indicates the several IVHS technologies available. TABLE 5-8 INTELLIGENT VEHICLE HIGHWAY SYSTEM (IVHS) PROGRAMS IVHS SYSTEM PROGRAM DESCRIPTION Advanced Traffic ATMS will integrate management of various roadway Management Systems functions including freeway ramp metering and arterial signal (ATMS) control. ATMS will collect,utilize, and disseminate real- time data on congestion on arterial streets and expressways and will alert transit operators of alternative routes. Advanced Traveler ATIS provides a variety of information that assists travelers Information Systems in reaching a desired destination via private vehicle,public (ATIS) transportation,or a combination of the two. Advanced Vehicle AVCS enhances the driver's control of the vehicle to make Control Systems(AVCS) travel safer and more efficient. Commercial Vehicle Operators of fleets of trucks,buses,vans,taxis,and Operatioro(CVO) emergency vehicles adopting rVHS technologies. Advanced Public APES%%-11 sse constituent technologies of ATMS, ATIS,and Traoaposution Systems AVCS to improve operation of high-occupancy vehicles, (APES) including transit buses,cars,and vanpools. ATIS will inform the traveler of the alternative schedules and costs available for a trip. Source: IVHS America,May 1992 SCAG • Regional Mobilin Element • December, 1993 Page 5-34 Chapter Fite • Regional Streets and Highwm's Program DRAFT DOCUMENT SMART CORRIDORS A Smart Corridor is one in which an agency's control and response decisions are made in agreement with the actions of other agencies involved in handling traffic congestion. The agencies involved include Caltrans, CHP, local emergency services providers, and local transportation departments. In addition, Smart Corridors will require direct involvement of the county transportation commissions. A Smart Corridor is also one in which all facilities, including freeways and surface streets, are used at their maximum efficiency during both normal periods of congestion and when an incident has occurred. This would involve freeway surveillance and control, ramp metering, improved traffic signal control, incident detection and response, motorist service patrols, and other traffic management features. Smart Corridors provide the driver with the information needed to make intelligent decisions on the best route to travel, given existing conditions. In some cases, the motorist may delay trips, cancel trips, or use alternatives to their normal route. Motorist information opportunities include commercial radio and television, changeable message signs, highway advisory radio, telephone call-in, computer bulletin boards. They also include more sophisticated elements such as in-vehicle navigation systems, special television messages, and dedicated in-vehicle radio signalling. Smart Corridors Under Development The Santa Monica Freeway Smart Corridor covers an approximately 14.5 mile stretch of the Santa Monica Freeway. Project implementation began in mid-1993 and will be completed by the Spring of 1994. Project began in early 1993 with the purpose of assessing the effectiveness of project elements and the applicability of Smart concepts to other corridors. The total project cost is approximately $48 million, which has been provided through federal, state and local sources. The Glendale/Pasadena/Burbank Smart Corridor Project is currently under development. The Smart Corridor Project, (210, 134, 1-5 Freeways), including the cities of Pasadena, Los Angeles, Glendale, and Burbank is funded by the ISTEA/Proposition C fund. Potential SMART Corridors In accordance with Assembly Bill 1239, the Smart Corridor Statewide Study identified combined freeway and surface corridors where significant congestion exists and where the Smart Corridor concepts will prove cost effective in reducing congestion. In the SCAG region this includes the urbanized portions of Los Angeles, Ventura, San Bernardino, Riverside, and Orange counties. Also, all freeways in SCAG • Regional Mobilin, Element • December, 1993 Page 5-35 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highways Program DRAFT DOCUMEAT Caltrans Districts 7, 8, 11, 12 were reviewed to evaluate the level of congestion and opportunities for implementing Smart Corridor techniques. Examples of potential Smart Corridors in the region are identified in Tables 5-9 and 5-10. TABLE 5-9 LOS ANGELES COUNTY POTENTIAL SMART STREET CORRIDORS ROUTE DESCRIPTION Downtown L.A.Ring I-5,1-10,101,&I-110 5 Between 1-605&Rte. 60 5 Between Rte 110&Rte. 134 10 Between I-5 and 1-605 60 Between 1-5&1-605 60 Between 1-605 and Rte. 71 91 Between I-10&Beach Blvd. 101 Between I-110&Rte. 134 101 Between Valley Circle Blvd&I-5 t 110 Between 1-405&1-10 210 Between Rte. 134&Rte. 30 405 Between Ifi05&I-110 405 Between 1-110&I-10 405 Between I-10& 101 405 Between 101 &I-5 605 Between 1-405&I-5 605 Between 1-5&1-10 Source: Statewide Snort Corridor Study SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Chapter Five • Regional Streets and Highwmis Program DRAFT DOCUMEA7 TABLE 5-10 ORANGE COUNTY POTENTIAL SMART STREET CORRIDORS ROUTE DESCRIPTION' 22 1405 to Rte. 55 55 I-405 to Rtc. 91 57 1-5 to Rte. 90 91 Rte, 91 Imperial Hwy to Beach Blvd. 405 Rte. 22 to I-5 Source: Statewide Smart Corridor Study ISSUES IN NEED OF FURTHER STUDY Several issues remain to be considered relative to regional goal attainment including the following: • The role that local streets and roads can/will play in achieving mobility. • How the region will address immediate congestion problems while attempting to reduce the region's reliance on SOV. • Roadway planning for clean fueled single occupancy vehicles. • Effectively reducing the impact of freight transportation in the region. • Improving the efficiency of freight transportation on the region's roadways. • Coping with energy demands for transportation purposes if the reliance on the SOV continues. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 5-37 a 4 REGIONAL NON-MOTORIZED TRANSPORTATION PROGRAM INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND Non-motorized transportation is generally defined as walking and bicycling. In addition, however, other non-motorized modes, such as equestrian travel and skating, should not be overlooked. While non- motorized transportation is considered an element of the vehicle substitution strategy of Transportation Demand Management (TDM), bicycling and walking are distinct modes that not only share facilities with other modes, but also require unique facilities. To enhance bicycle and pedestrian travel, the state of California requires consideration of pedestrian programs and links to transit, where appropriate, and the Regional Mobility Element (RME) is required to develop an action program that includes a program for developing intracity and intercity bicycle programs. ASSESSMENT OF EXISTING NON-MOTORIZED TRANSPORTATION Bikeways provided throughout the region are classified as Class I, separated pathways; Class II, bicycle lanes; and Class III, signed routes. Figure 6-1 shows that throughout the region, the Class I bicycle system is not very extensive. Class II facilities throughout the region are much more extensive, in terms of providing access on the arterial and highway (where bikes are permitted) network, but large gaps in the system remain. Class III bikeways provide alternative routes to some high- volume, high-speed arterial, and thus fill in many gaps left by Class I and Class II, yet gaps remain. Furthermore, not all Class III routes continue to provide safe and convenient alternatives. In addition to paved facilities, most of the counties have developed a trails program for hiking, mountain biking, and equestrian travel. Although these facilities are primarily recreational they can provide travel to scenic and recreational areas. Convenient non-motorized access to these sites can reduce the need for motorized trips to the destinations served by these facilities. With the existing infrastructure, the region is currently experiencing a home-to-work trip mode-split of almost I percent for bicycling, and 2 percent for walking. The daily mode-split for all bicycling trip purposes is about I percent, and about 8 percent for walking ' 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS)-Data covers the SCAG region SCAG • Regional Mobilin Denim • December, 1993 Page 6-1 ..r.rrr�. 1993 CLASS I BICYCLE ROUTES 1993 RME DRAFT VENTURA \ � LOS ANGELES 12E \\ 101 \ \ 3 � 1 126 tt6 21C ` ` \ to �\ 2.��� 39'. 1a• no 111 2 2'C , +1L 2 \ 2 o K ++o 605 LEGEND 6 no . _ sos _._..w Class I Bicycle Route Freeway — o i39 Source: County Tranportation Commissions Note: SANBAG, CVAG & IVAG Information Unavailable at time of printing SOV FN Cµ60NNA IWMW ASSOCIATIONO-GONEIINWN?S - e. �... SAN BERNARDINO +E +E 395 \ ,a8 _ x ,s 30 50 i 10 t1 ,o +o '+ r — - — — - — - — — - — 60 ac � +o I r is f u ,5 OR NG E \\ RIVERSID FIG. 6-1 10/14/93 Page 6-3 Chapter Six • Regional Non-motori,-ed Transportation Program DRAFT DOCUMENT A number of barriers that impede pedestrians and bicyclists, and prevent Potential pedestrians and bicyclists have been identified. These barriers include the following: • Negative perceptions about non-motorized commuting. • Unsafe, insufficient, and inconvenient infrastructure. • Crime, including both personal safety and security of property. • Lack of access to transit. • Land-use patterns and site designs that are unfriendly to pedestrians and bicyclists. GOALS AND OBJECTIVES The non-motorized program has two goals to improve the existing non- motorized system and help the region meet its mobility, air quality, and energy goals. First, is to make the overall transportation system accessible, safe, and convenient for bicycle and pedestrian travel (i.e., "user-friendly" to bicyclists and pedestrians). Accessibility for bicyclists is defined by the availability of bikeways (routes, lanes, paths), bicycle facilities (bicycle racks, lockers); and connections to transit (carpool/vanpool as well as bus/rail). Accessibility for pedestrians is defined as the availability of sidewalks and pathways, and site designs providing safe and convenient pedestrian access to and throughout residential, commercial, and employment sites and centers. The second goal is to increase the pedestrian and bicycle mode-split, thus reducing vehicle trips and vehicle miles. The system will not only have to better accommodate existing users, it will also have to encourage new potential users. The objective is to increase the level of daily bicycle and pedestrian trips to 10 percent of all daily trips, and increase the level of home-to-work bicycle and pedestrian trips to 5 percent (based on NPTS survey data). RECOMMENDED POLICIES A set of strategies is being recommended for overcoming the barriers identified, and meeting the program's objectives. These strategies can be categorized under the following four headings: • Infrastructure improvements • Education/Promotion • Enforcement • Urban form/land-use and site designs Efforts in each of these areas are being recommended to meet RME goals and non-motorized element objectives. SLAG • Regional Mobilin Element • December, 1993 Page 6-4 Chapter Sir • Regional Non-motorized Transportation Program DRAFT DOCUMENT The following policies are recommended to implement the four strategies identified above, and are intended to comprehensively incorporate the planning, development, and operation of the non-motorized system into the existing transportation development and operations structure. • The development of the regional transportation system should include a non-motorized transportation system that provides an effective alternative to auto travel for appropriate trips. The planning and development of transportation projects and systems should include the following, as appropriate: o Provision of safe, convenient, and continuous bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure to and throughout areas with existing and potential demand such as activity areas, schools, recreational areas (including those areas served by trails), which will ultimately provide the same or better (when practical) accessibility provided to the motorized vehicle. o Accessibility to transit(bus terminals, rail stations,Park- And-Ride lots) where there is demand and transit boarding time will not be significantly delayed. o Maintenance of safe, convenient, and continuous non- motorized travel during and after the construction of transportation and general development projects. • Entities and programs that currently support the auto should be encouraged to provide the same types of services for non- motorized transportation, including education, promotion, and enforcement. • Urban form/land-use and site-design policies should include requirements for non-motorized transportation just as requirements to accommodate other modes are included. RECOMMENDED ACTION PROGRAM Chapter 12 identifies the recommended actions to implement the policy program. The actions, which fall under the four major strategies, are intended to be implemented according to the needs identified by the subregions. However, to provide an effective non-motorized system, increase non-motorized trips, and thus reduce dependence on the single- occupant vehicle, it is expected that each strategy is necessary and will need to be implemented in each subregion. SCAG 41 Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 6-5 Chapter Six • Regional Non-motorized Transportation Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Subregional Input Subregions have provided input on the selection of appropriate non- motorized actions for the particular subregion. Addressing implementation of the strategies at the subregional level will allow greater flexibility in reaching regional trip reduction goals and meeting local non-motorized needs. Table 6-1 identifies the non-motorized- related actions and needs of the various subregions. These have been incorporated in this chapter. TABLE 6-1 SUBREGIONALLY RECOMMENDED IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAM ACTIONS SUBREGIONS Land Use Related • Coordinate and phase transportation network Arroyo Verdugo, South Bay Cities improvements with Land Use decisions Association, Western Riverside • Incorporate urban form into development Council of Governments review policies (WRCOG), City of Los Angeles, • Physical design to support alternate modes Orange County Bicycle Coalition, • Bike lanes, bike access to major activity San Gabriel Valley Association of centers, recreation/education centers Cities, Westside Cities • Expansion of regional bike network • Non-motorized access to work based transit/employment • Subregional network with local feeder network Non-motorized use facilities • Facilitate safety and usage Southeast Los Angeles (SELAC), • Integrate with work based transit WRCOG, Westside Cities, South • Complete TDA expenditure on funding Bay Cities Association, Orange County Bicycle Coalition, Arroyo Verdugo Rideshare incentives/advocacy • Education programs Orange County, WRCOG, Orange • Improve ridesharing, non-motorized modes to County Bicycle Coalition, South work Bay Cities Association, Arroyo Verdugo Other • Prohibit removal of bike ways Orange County Bicycle Coalition SCAG & Regional Mobility- Element • December, 1993 Page 6-6 REGIONAL GOODS MOVEMENT • PROGRAM INTRODUCTION Goods movement in the SCAG region is a transportation activity with critical linkages to such areas as the economy, mobility, the environment, quality of life, and land use. Formally defined, goods' movement refers to the facilities, activities and people involved in transporting commodities, data, raw materials and products for the purpose of consumption, manufacture, or disposal. Public sector and private enterprises participate in goods movement activities as diverse as the movement of oil and water via pipeline; the transport of mail and packages via truck and plane by the United States Postal Service; the import and export of motor vehicles via seaports; the transfer of information via fiber-optic cable; and the shipment of agricultural produce from the Imperial Valley subregion to other SCAG subregions and the nation. Focus of the Program The Goods Movement Program was developed in cooperation with representatives of the subregional governments whose members sit, along with the private sector, on various advisory and policy-making boards and committees. At various stages of the development process, other Regional Mobility Element (RME) programs provided comments on goods transportation issues. IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF THE 1989 REGIONAL MOBILITY PLAN Much activity in implementing 1989 Plan recommendations has occurred in the system development, regulatory and management arenas. The Plan recommended that the San Pedro Bay port authorities and local governments form a Joint Powers Authority to develop the Consolidated Railroad Corridor. The JPA was created in 1989. Although the Preferred Alternative for the project was certified in January 1993, full funding has not been identified for the project. The City of Los Angeles pursued the development of a truck management plan that would have restricted truck travel on city arterials during peak periods. It appears that the City has decided not to pursue the final implementation of a peak period management program. Although freight,goods and cargo are used synonymously,freight also refers to the charge for transporting goods. SCAG • Regional Mobiliry Element • December, 1993 Page 7-1 Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Caltrans, the county transportation commissions and the California Highway Patrol (CHP) currently employ various incident management programs. These programs evolved from the Los Angeles Area Freeway Surveillance and Control Project—a demonstration project undertaken on a 42 mile loop formed by the Santa Monica (1-10) Freeway, Harbor (1- 110) Freeway, and the San Diego (I-405) Freeway. Another program called Clearing Lanes Efficiently and Rapidly (CLEAR) involves the assignment of specially trained teams of CHP officers and supervisors to selected urban freeway corridors in Los Angeles during peak periods to provide rapid response, verification and removal of incidents. THE 1993 RME FRAMEWORK FOR GOODS MOVEMENT PLANNING In recognition of problems and issues that are beyond the scope of the current program, SCAG will complete the Intermodal Goods Movement Study and the Railroad Consolidation Study. The Intermodal Study will provide information on intermodal operations in the SCAG region and their relationship to the economy, congestion, and air quality. The Consolidation Study will investigate the feasibility of consolidating rail freight activities on an east-west corridor in the SCAG region, for the purpose of reducing rail related emissions. These studies will be completed in fiscal years 1995 and 1994, respectively. PROFILE OF THE GOODS MOVEMENT SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 1990 A major portion of the goods movement system in Southern California consists of fixed-location, publicly-owned infrastructure that accommodates privately-owned and operated freight carriers. Components of the system (Figures 7-1 and 7-2) include all major modes of transport: airports, seaports, highways, freeways, and arterials (public), and railroads (private). The system also includes intermodal transfer facilities, freight yards and truck terminals. Figures 7-3, 7-4 and 7-5 depict truck and rail access to the seaports in the region. Intermodal System Various combinations of intermodal operations occur in the region: truck-train; truck-plane; truck-ship, and truck-truck. The amount and quality of information on the intermodal system relative to commodities, weight, values, volumes, operations, and economic markets vary tremendously. The region has always had some degree of intermodal operations. Innovations in the shipping industry (e.g., containerized cargo), however, have greatly increased intermodal operations. The SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 7-2 0 Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Intermodal Goods Movement Study, which will be completed in February 1995, will provide information on intermodal operations in the SCAG region. Goods Transportation and Ground Access The regional transportation system of interstates, state highways and designated truck routes provide ground access to local, subregional and/or inter-regional markets. The ground transportation system also supports access to the major air carrier airports, seaports, intermodal facilities and military airfields. National Highway System (NHS). Under the ISTEA, the NHS when approved by Congress in September 1995, will consist of the interstates and other strategic highways, which provide motor vehicle access between these facilities and major port, airport, public transportation facility, or other intermodal transportation facility (see Figure 5-6 in Chapter 5). The NHS largely replaces the federal-aid funding classification system. The federal government will maintain an interest in NHS facilities for the purpose of funding, operations, and maintenance. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element December, 1993 Page 7-3 .�rrr OJ ONiOtlYNtl38 NY5 'OJ 3015t13Aitl co a) N O 111 ° Z C/) 7 n I LU UJ T Z .•� ••• ■nnnnn+• w 'V J LUr. rrrurrrurr•i r urrprgr•r•. � •• • • o i W N • Y) \ O I I _ � C W I O w � o O � O � Z � W o o — � Cn i W w c' 0 > m W J 2- y Q L 0 z CM e��o c E c m O U cb W J = Q v Q co '/^ � O 3 O m Q C) z ••• // U d= o LL ¢ U U r— i �` I • c 0 � � Taw cl r� O�ONIOHVNlf38 NYS O�301Stl3AIN \ 00 IVIUUNI O LJ.I LL C LU \ i • W j °J m I [[ m cn Z - W I 1 � f I 0 1Y•P L � c W ' cc w z Z E YUU O \ / LL, O � co � Cn w 3 ci o__ ,c Q Q 0 � �O W c Q i Q Z 2 lQ C C (n O ..I M L ¢ C — rn 3 o� U cis o' a m 8 T � U cr6o Z I — � c �- � � C v I Sp o � � cn� Lo ♦ .....y........... .. CD Ln � — ' •.a.. I p � i .ice ��_,� �. •.r p I C N J I 1 L U .o J w Q Q om � � � U- Z c� (no Z ui cc U) cts w = cs c i O —/ UJc a _ o X <w Q `' 6L a 75 0 cc " O Z � I Z c o E U)0 ca c Z. 0 � o Q cn Q c r IL� I ' �7 ID 3i's b{�: O o car I rn N O to CD .a n o LO m ly C 0 a 0 n o ° o L Ln o l ,•••••�•'•• m L 0 O O O O � � i z O o _ � a Cl) W z0 cn m W w W U Z Q Z H W Uj Q cr J c � Ow b 2 Z CL C3 0� � 3 m to Y Z � U o Q� F- x Cn Q Z �, tm zoo LLI I E eEo '� 0 0 S LLL LLI O i I _1 Q lL Q o o € U a a 0 0 I - I Q� L T 1 C co \T ' T ' I \ % I 1 \ I I M W j T i sssed�a anuany�3 .. ................. .■■ I T .L O OBI T E. aci N =: T ........... 0'y E„O30.A ■ T C p O T (A E E 0 i U c 0 I � W I � � o a W w C Q � cn W Q 3 0 a WD W o LL i U I w o �e Q ~ W w a � rn i J C � i ( m < a.T i p Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Institutional Influences On Goods Movement In Southern California Table 7-1 provides a partial listing of the influence of various levels of governmental agencies on goods movement. Other governmental divisions such as the departments of Agriculture and of Fish and Game, though not shown, have requirements to which movers of these goods have to comply. The five major air carrier airports (Los Angeles International, Glendale- Burbank-Pasadena, Ontario International, John Wayne/Orange County and Long Beach) and seaports (Los Angeles, Long Beach and Port Hueneme) operate as autonomous agencies within their respective local governments, and have jurisdiction over the various passenger and cargo carriers that operate therein. Policy-making authority is vested in airport and port commissions appointed by their respective municipal governments. The private users of the goods movement system function as independent operators and through representation in industry organizations such as the American Trucking Association, California Trucking Association, American Association of Railroads and the Steamship Association of California. Goods Movement Markets Several market service areas and mode relationships are discernable depending on the geographic market area. This analysis deals with goods movement markets within the SCAG region, and between the SCAG region and the rest of the world. Local and subregional markets are those within the SCAG region. Inter-regional goods movement occurs between the SCAG region and the regions of the continental United States. Goods movement between the SCAG region and other countries defines the international markets. Goods movement between the SCAG region and the U.S. regions that are not on the continent are also included under international markets. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 7-9 .�rnn.rr. Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 7-1 A SELECTED LISTING OF GOVERNMENT AGENCIES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON GOODS MOVEMENT IN THE SCAG REGION Level Agency Influence/Regulation Mode Influenced Federal Department of Transportation Policies All modes Transportation and Funding Federal Aviation Safety and operational Airlines Administration Federal Railroad Safety and operational Railroads Administration Environmental Protection Emissions--air and water All modes Agency quality Federal Maritime Licensing, rates Ocean Commission common carriers US Customs Inspections, duty and fee All modes collection US Coast Guard Licensing, Safety & Maritime Operational operations Federal Highway Funding and Operational Highways and Administration Trucking Interstate Commerce Licensing and operational Railroads and Commission Trucking State Department of Funding, operational, Roads and Transportation, Division Safety, System Planning, trucking of Aeronautics Monitoring, Capital Improvements California Highway Safety Trucking Patrol Energy Commission Air Resources Board Air quality All modes Department of Motor Vehicle registration, Trucking Vehicles driver licensing Public Utilities Safety and operational Railroad, Commission Trucking Regional CALTRANS Districts 7, Funding, operational Roads and and Local 8, 11, 12 trucking Air Quality Management Air quality All modes Districts (1)and Air Pollution Control Districts (3) Local Governments Operational, funding All modes SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 7-10 Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMEIT Mode-Market Relationships Table 7-2 and Figure 7-6 show the markets served by the various modes. Heavy-duty trucks generally serve all markets, including the contiguous international markets of Mexico and Canada. Planes and airports serve national and international markets. The three major railroads operating in the region (Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe; Southern Pacific; and Union Pacific) primarily serve interstate transportation needs, but a significant amount of traffic exists among Mexico, Canada and Southern California. TABLE 7-2 MARKETS SERVED BY DIFFERENT MODES Mode Markets Rail Land Water Air Local - Trucks Intra (Sub)- - Trucks - - regional Inter- Freight Trucks - Airlines and regional: Trains' package regions express (UPS, within the Federal continental Express, etc.) US Regions Freight Trucks Tankers, Airlines and outside the trains bulk package continental carriers,conta express. US-- iner carriers primarily and general international carriers § Barring exceptions, freight trains haul goods from the SCAG region to regions only outside California. SCAG a Regional Mobilin• Element • December, 1993 Page 7-11 0 Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT J Q / Z I Q Z F Z v, Q W 0 (� W 1� O Cr W w F Z Y M I J ` Q m O 1 Z C7 W Z cc A w LL LL J M Z Y M O Q < W W CO w uj w d 9 Y O C cQ G 1 "1_ "1_ FIGURE 7-6 SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 7-12 Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT ISSUES AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH GOODS TRANSPORTATION Issues While the region's only mobility goal associated with energy is to reduce its consumption, energy choices and decisions influence all aspects of the region, notably: transportation system development, mode choice, business growth, competitiveness and location, environmental and community quality, and relationship of the SCAG region to trade partners and competing areas of the country and world (see Figure 7-7). Increased government regulation has created the perception that the region is not business-friendly and business/regional economic competitiveness cannot be achieved/maintained. Few resources are allocated to planning and programming for goods movement activities. Land-use design and infrastructure development do not adequately accommodate the needs of goods movement. Impacts • Accidents and incidents on the region's affected roadways. • Mode and system inefficiencies and conflicts. • Environmental damage: The various air basins in the region are designated as non-attainment areas for various pollutants. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 7.13 Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT O _ y @ Q C o O _2- to E as a? E E O oM � CL 0 ° a`c cc $ E Z � U Y • C 0 i C Q QetS Om� io J ® d Oia� yrOm 2 C m�7 0yp � d C Q L Q C 100 m CD E ` U C �` m Ca M O J y Ca oo a c13Vi C • w IE = o cc 3 LUE � aocSE CD ° E cc E C � � 4)5 0 0 C J ]„ 007 Q y t3 LL CO CC'0 m C e W :3 m Ca a mo-0 • "u— • CD CP Q r c op (A 0 r o r -a c a 0 o • •r c� Y 0 cc rr F- m' • 0 Q • CL O Z a CO w o CO U Z —' CO 0.. � O U- � Q N CO O O Q � Y w O CL FIGURE 7-7 SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 7-14 Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT POLICIES Transportation System Development, Use, Management and Safety • Growth in the demand for goods movement will be accommodated through the provision of adequate multi-modal and intermodal infrastructure that is consistent with overall regional goals, objectives, and policies. • Pricing strategies should be considered as one of the strategies to reduce peak period congestion. • The feasibility of air cargo transport at all major air carrier airports in the region will be considered as a means to address growth in cargo volumes. • Demand for increased goods movement will be given consideration in corridors where system connectivity and gap closures projects are being planned. • The development and use of pipelines within suitable utility corridors or public rights-of-way will be encouraged. • The siting, routing, and construction of pipelines will be conducted so as to avoid disruptions of sensitive environments, to improve the safety and reliability of the system and to protect ground water quality. • The inter-regional and intra-regional transport of crude oil by modes which lower the risk of spills, reduce air pollution emissions and lessen consequences of spills will be encouraged. Regional Economy, Mode Efficiency and Competitiveness • The ports and major air carrier airports in the SCAG region are regionally significant and important trade links with the remainder of the world, and shall be supported as a major foundation of the regional economy. • Arterial truck access routes will be coordinated for the purpose of improving system connectivity,eliminating circuitous routings and reducing delays. • The potential for adverse impacts to mode shares and diversion of business to other ports will be considered in the development and implementation of local and regional plans. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 7-I5 Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DR4F7 DOCUMENT Subregion Issue Recommendation Southeast Los Angeles *The essence of the SELAC Core •A high priority should be given to planning and funding port County Subregion Strategy is to focus public and private facilities, Alameda Corridor improvements,truck routes,grade sector energies on restoring a healthy and separations and other facilities which will expand the goods prospering economy by expanding the movement capacity of the Subregion and link it to nearby most promising clusters of existing industrial areas slated for revitalization. economic activity in the SELAC area: *Pursue additional funding for goods movement planning and world trade,goods movement and certain implementation of capital improvements on a Subregional manufacturing sectors. basis,particularly for facilities that have regional significance. •SELAC is well positioned to play a key •Work with MTA and Caltrans to provide truck lanes or role in the region because of its pivotal routes on or adjacent to freeways in order to reduce truck location and critical connections to ports, traffic congestion on the existing transportation system, rail lines and the freeway network. Of emphasizing peak period relief and ways of avoiding disruption key significance is the fact that the of local streets. region's goods movement system focuses •Give priority to truck lane improvements on the 1-710 on SELAC and adjacent South Bay: In Freeway. particular,the Ports of Long Beach and *Identify methods of improving access for cities in proximity Los Angeles,the Hobart Rail Freight to the goods movement corridors and tie in with economic Yards and the planned development of the development activities to capitalize on convenient goods interconnecting Alameda Corridor. movement. South Bay Cities Association •The Alameda Corridor and supporting *Truck routing coordination should receive a high priority to transportation facilities should be treated insure that goods movement and other traffic are most cost as a top priority for funding and effectively accommodated on the Region's transportation implementation support in the RME and system. the RTIP. *Manage the movement of goods and services,especially •LAX and the Los Angeles Harbor, truck traffic; its impact on congestion and the health of the including bus transit and goods movement Subregional and Regional economies is critical. facilities,should be treated as top priorities *Identify projects of Regional importance(e.g.airports and in the RME and the RTIP,with active harbors)and ensure that their expansion/constructionand Subregional involvement in shaping the associated impacts are prioritized and sufficiently funded at the plans for their operational expansion. Regional level. Orange County N/A N/A North Los Angeles County N/A •The need for efficient movement of people and goods within Subregion the Subregion should be considered. Coachella Valley Association N/A N/A of Governments City of Los Angeles •The City of Los Angeles is working with *Freight transportation systems should be designed in a way other jurisdictions on the Consolidated to make them adaptable to changes in need of the service and Alameda Corridor Transportation Plan. industrial sectors. The purpose of the plan is to facilitate *Smaller trucks with good loading/unloading systems can access to the Ports of Los Angeles and provide better service,have less of an impact on street and Long Brach through the ymr2020by WIN ,capacity,and create less damage and congestion in consolidating rail movements into a single canes of accidents than the 18-wheelers. corridor between the Los Angeles Harbor and East Los Angeles Yard/Pasadena Junction,where goods can be distributed nation-wide. Ventura Council of •Ventura County has given great attention N/A Governments to goods movement,especially as it relates to improved port access at Port Hueneme. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 7-17 Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Land Use • Planning to accommodate multi-modal and inter-modal goods movement shall be an integral part of the land use and circulation elements of local government general plans and specific plans. • Local governments shall consider requiring off-street dock facilities for all new buildings, and existing buildings that are approved for extensive renovation,sufficient to accommodate the shipping and receiving needs of such buildings. SUBREGIONAL INPUT As a part of the bottom-up planning process, subregional input provides information and recommendations regarding significant issues of concern on the parts of local jurisdictions. Table 7-3 depicts subregional input as related to the Goods Movement program. TABLE 7-3 SUBREGIONALLY RECOMMENDED IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAM Subregion Issue Recommendation Imperial County Association •FHWA and Caltrans are looking into the •Recognize the new Calexico East Port of Entry and the need of Governments development of a State Truck Inspection for a SR-7 connection to 1-8. Facility for vehicle weighing and •Recognize the economic implications of the new Port of agricultural products control. Entry. *Support federal funding to expedite solutions to transportation problems in the vicinity of the new Port of Entry,namely the widening of SR-98 and the extension of SR- 7 to I-8. •Continue to be sensitive to Imperial County's unique planning considerations in the development of regional plans. *Work with Caltrans,NAG and Imperial County to provide a more detailed county transportation plan which highlights the future regional transportation projects. Arroyo Verdega *The Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena Airport *Goals&Objectives:Provide for the efficient movement of provides for the movement of goods and freight. passengers in the subregion. •Policies: Provide a transportation system that ensures the safe and efficient movement of people and goods. Western Riverside Council N/A *Goal: Develop a safe,affordable and efficient transportation of Governments system which provides access for the movement of goods, people and information to communities,employment centers, education,shopping,recreation and other important services. *Goal: Support completion of an adequate roadway system which provides for the safe and efficient movement of people and goods in rural and developing areas. San Bernardino Associated N/A N/A Governments SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 page 7-16 Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT The efficiency of freight transportation via truck will be enhanced through improvements in the operating conditions on the region's regional streets and roads. As a part of the Regional Streets and Highways Program (Chapter S), expansion of mixed-flow and HOW capacity and improved system management is recommended; arterial HOV facilities, Smart Corridors and application of advance technologies are endorsed for study and possible implementation where appropriate. Relationship or Goods Movement Strategies to Congestion Management Programs State statutes that authorized the creation of Congestion Management Programs (CMP) do not require that CMPs address goods movement activities and non-recurrent congestion. Thus, the adopted CMPs do not address issues directly related to goods movement. However, elements of the CMP do have potential for benefiting goods transportation insofar as the Capital Improvement Programs (CIP), Land Use Elements, TDM and Transit elements may lead to improved operation and management of the system for both people and goods. The CIPs are Congestion Management Agency input into the Regional Transportation Improvement , Program for the SCAG region. The adopted CMPs were found to be consistent with the 1989 RMP and their respective CIPs were integrated into the Action Element of the RME (See Chapter 12, Preliminary Regional Action Plan). I ISSUES IN NEED OF FURTHER STUDY Industrial development. Adequate funding to develop, operate and maintain the region's significant existing and proposed freight movement facilities could be key in revitalizing the region's economy and achieving long-term stability. Completion of the Alameda Corridor, for example, could form a core objective that solidifies the region's actions to help create jobs, to maintain trade links and to enhance the competitiveness of the region and the state. Other regionally significant major infrastructure as identified in the RME, would also be key in considering the economic stability and policy development for the region. Energy. While the region's only mobility goal relative to energy is to reduce its consumption, decisions concerning energy help shape the region's economic base, transportation, land use development patterns, recreation, quality of life and the environment. In the absence of major energy crises, the risk that the region faces is not apparent. The type of energy consumed by residents,mobile sources and industry,however, will continue to determine the fundamental challenges that confront the region_ Subregional decision-makers may want to focus on additional 3 Excludes heavy duty-vehicles. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 7-19 V Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Subregion Issue Recommendation San Gabriel Valley OThe 10 and 60 freeways carry significant *Policy: Support the development of a network of truck traffic. The industrial uses along the subregional principal transportation facilities which ensure the 60 encourage peak period congestion due safe and efficient movement of people and goods to to fixed work hours. accommodate inter and intra-regional and subregional travel demand. *Policy: Minimize the regional and subregional truck traffic impacts. Westside Summit Cities •Goods movement is a major economic •The general plan circulation elements of the Westside issue in the subregion.It is also a traffic Summit cities include a mixture of priorities and policies both circulation issue because of the high in support of efficient goods movement,as well as in support volume of pass-through truck traffic that of appropriate mitigation measures for truck traffic. the Westside experiences,due to its *Several cities do not have official truck route systems and location in the middle of a highly have stated that a priority is to implement truck routes or urbanized county. restrictions in their cities. *One of the major issues facing planning *The Westside Cities Subregion proposes to evaluate whether for goods movement is the lack of a a unified truck route/restriction system is needed. regional or subregional database. More research will be needed on this issue to develop a coherent regional policy. CONSTRAINED PROJECT ALTERNATIVE Goods Transportation Site-Specific Recommendations Site-specific and ground access improvements in the vicinity of the seaports and major air carrier airports in the region are recommended. Improvements are detailed in Chapter 12 - Preliminary Regional Action Program. The single largest facility and operations improvement identified is construction of the Alameda Corridor. Completion of the Alameda Corridor project is "the most important single transportation improvement project in the State; it has statewide and national significance; and the consequences of inadequate funding to implement the project would have disastrous economic consequences."' Feasibility Studies. Several feasibility studies which address specific problems associated with goods transportation are recommended, including evaluating the congestion and air quality impacts of queued traffic at railroad crossings in the region; studying the economic feasibility of the phased elimination of at-grade railroad crossings of high traffic flow arterials; and conducting a study to examine the feasibility of pricing to reduce accidents, incidents and associated congestion on the freeways. It is also recommended that the feasibility of high-speed freight transportation be ascertained and that this issue be addressed in future studies of high-speed rail passenger service. Source: SELAC Subregional input to Iteyioed Comprehems%v Plan: Excerpts of speech by Mr. Dartiel Wm. Fessler, President, California Public Utilities Commission; Member, California Transportation Commission, speaking at the TRANSCON 2000 International Conference:Future Transportation Technology,Palm Springs,California,October 25, 1993. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 7-18 Chapter Seven • Regional Goods Movement Program DRAFT DOCUMENT aspects of energy and how decisions and choices regarding energy can help achieve subregional goals and objectives. Key issues involving energy and goods movement include: • Fuel types and achieving air quality. • Reducing dependence on fossil fuels for transportation and developing alternative fuel sources. • Mitigating the direct adverse impacts of the energy decisions on jobs directly related to goods movement. • Mitigating the indirect impacts of goods movement-related energy decisions on jobs, industry, business and residents. • Reducing the impacts of current fuel sources for goods movement. Public-private sector improvement initiatives. The relationship between the public and private sectors in Southern California is strained. The public sector could provide leadership in improving communication between the two and in considering strategies to address outstanding Iissues such as the following [The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) approach encourages partnerships between the public and private sectors in resolving critical issues]: • Developing and funding important infrastructure such as the Alameda Corridor. • Integrating goals for the region's energy and goods movement future into the framework for planning for the economy, transportation,the environment, land use, and quality of life. • Establishing a national and state legislative agenda that promotes regional goals in the area of energy, goods movement, transportation, technology and the environment. • Maintaining a competitive regional economy and strengthening links to global trade and domestic markets. • Integrating advanced technologies and technology transfers that facilitate the intermodal transportation system. Safety. Reduction in delay and congestion associated with vehicular accidents can improve mobility. Studies should be undertaken to determine ways to improve safety on the system. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 7-20 err '�� ' REGIONAL AVIATION SYSTEM PROGRAM INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND The SCAG region includes 56 public-use airports, which makes it the largest airport system of any region in the world (see Figure 8-1). The breakdown of these airports includes 44 general aviation (GA) airports, 10 commercial service airports, one closed military airbase for which civilian reuse has not been determined, and one military/civilian joint-use airport. The five urban airports that serve most of the region's aviation demand are Los Angeles International (LAX), Ontario International (ONT),John Wayne/Orange County(SNA),Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena (BUR), and Long Beach (LGB). Palm Springs (PSP) serves urban areas in the low desert east of the Los Angeles basin. Palmdale (PMD) serves the Antelope Valley, and may relieve airports in the Los Angeles basin in the future if high-speed access can be provided.' While the SCAG region is first in aviation activity compared to any other region, it has been beset by a number of problems. Foremost among them has been an expected shortfall in commercial airport capacity for both air passengers and air cargo. Further discussion of air cargo in the broader context of goods movement is presented in Chapter 7. This shortfall may be offset with the possible closure of two additional military air bases in the region. Commercial airport ground access is another major concern. As airports reach their physical capacity, access infrastructure for passengers and cargo will become increasingly congested, so the need for inter-modal and multi-modal access strategies will increase. The general aviation system is under increasing budgetary pressures as local governments experience the effects of recession. This is occurring during a period when the roles of general aviation airports are changing from recreational uses to more support for business and government use, and for emergency response to natural disasters and civil unrest. Another major concern is the strategic role of the aviation system in contributing to the economic recovery of the region and future economic development, particularly in relation to international trade. During the past year, this chapter has been reviewed by SCAG's Aviation Technical Advisory Committee (ATAC) and by the Transportation and Communications Committee (TCC). '. Italicized narrative represents responses to comments on the July 1993 RME Discussion Document from the County of Orange,the City of Los Angeles,Department of Airports,the City of Palm Springs Regional Airport,and the City of Simi Valley. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 8-1 1993 REGIONAL AIRPORT SYSTEM 1993 RME DRAFT � t 01 L KERN CO m VENTURA zi y - LOS ANGELES 131 a s n w ORANGE LEGEND , F,A& General Aviation Airport Military Airbase/Station Air Carrier Airport Note: George AFB closed. Reuse is pending Source: 1992 Aeronautical Sectional Chart SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Nam ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS e WYoco SAN BERNARDINO f RIVERSIDE SAN DIEGO CO. -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - IMPERIAL • FIG. 8-1 6/10/93 Page 8-3 Chapter Eight • Regional Aviation S1-stein Program DRAFT DOCUMEAT COMMERCIAL AIRPORT CAPACITY INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND In 1988, commercial airports of the Los Angeles basin served 57.9 million annual passengers (MAP), roughly 13 percent of the total air traffic in the United States. By 1991 the same airports served 61.8 MAP. Currently, policy constraints limit the commercial airport system to serving fewer passengers than its physical capacity would allow. Some immediate capacity relief may be provided by existing outlying airports. Palm Springs Regional Airport,for example, is a commercial airport that serves 430,000 passengers annually and has recently added runway capacity. Palmdale Plant 42 has authorihy for 400 commercial flights per day under a joint-use agreement with the Air Force, and may in the future provide relief for commercial airports in the Los Angeles basin. However, even with relief from these outlying airports, several commercial airports in the Los Angeles basin are expected to surpass constrained passenger levels during the next decade. LAX, it should be noted, went beyond its policy constraint in 1987. RECOMMENDED GOAL • Enhance airport system capacity to accommodate increased air passenger demand. RECOMMENDED OBJECTIVES • In the 1995 Regional Aviation System Study, identify multiple, short-term and long-term aviation-related strategies that are needed to solve/mitigate the capacity and congestion issues at existing airports. • In the 1995 Regional Aviation System Study, identify non- aviation strategies to address capacity and congestion issues at existing airports. ASSESSMENT OF NEEDS AND DEFICIENCIES Demand pressure on the region's five metropolitan commercial airports is expected to increase dramatically during the next two decades. They are projected to serve 118 MAP by the year 2010, which represents a 91 percent increase over 1991 levels. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element * December, 1993 Page 8-4 Chapter Eight 0 Regional Aviation S},stem Program DRAFT DOCUMENT The adequacy of its commercial airport capacity is of great concern to the region, particularly in terms of reaching the Regional Mobility Element (RME) strategic goal of enhanced regional mobility for inter- regional travel. While there have been infrastructure improvements at LAX and John Wayne Airport during the past 10-15 years and other improvements are planned for Burbank and Ontario, the existing airports will still experience a capacity shortfall. Efforts to locate new airport sites have been unsuccessful, as documented in the 1980 Aviation System Study and the 1991 Aviation System Study Update. Remote sites are available, but must demonstrate that they,have sufficient demand, carrier support, funding support, and technical feasibility. Capacity shortfall for air cargo was documented in SCAG's Air Cargo Assessment as were options for increasing cargo capacity. Consequently, current efforts are focused on better utilization of existing airports in SCAG's Commercial Aimort System Capacity Study. Another effort, the Military'Airbase Contingency Study, is examining the civilian utility of r-ema+ning military air bases in ease they that are scheduled to be closed by the Department of Defense. The bases should T be evaluated as to the feasibility and desirability of upgrading them to commercial facilities. A later study should assess the costs and benefits of such an upgrade. Yhe current study includes George Air Force Base (AFB), Norton AFB, and Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) El Toro which have been or will be closed, and March AFB, which is scheduled for realignment and downsizing. Another study, to be completed in 1994, will examine the potential for joint-use at Naval Air Weapons Station (NA WS) Point Mugu. RECOMMENDED POLICIES • Support the more efficient use of commercial airport facilities to serve growing air passenger demand in the region. Airport- generated noise, air quality and ground access impacts resulting from increasing air service should be mitigated. • Each subregion should provide environmentally acceptable capacity within its own market area to meet local, short-haul air passenger demand due to shorter access time of short-haul passengers. • Add the former Norton Air Force Base, now San Bernardino International Airport, to the SCAG regional system of civilian airports and forward that information to the FAA's National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS). • For those military airbases, which are, or will be closed by the Department of Defense, support conversion to commercial air service if such bases have been determined to have a high SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 8-5 Chapter Eight • Regional Aviation S%,stem Program DRAFT DOCUMENT technical and market potential for use as commercial airports. This policy most strongly applies to those subregions which cannot otherwise provide sufficient, environmentally acceptable capacity to meet their own local, short-haul air passenger demand. • Examine the feasibility of commercial air passenger service at remaining active duty air bases if invited to do so by the military. 0 Support outlying airports, such as Palm Springs, George AFB and Palmdale to serve their own market area. Also, examine high-speed access systems to attract passengers from the metropolitan areas of the Los Angeles basin. 0 Support continued examination of new technologies and their potential impact on the aviation system, and its inter-modal connection to the rest of the Metropolitan Transportation System (MTS). This would include locational opportunities for tiltrotor service, and possible applications of high-speed rail. It would also include development of a multi-modal transportation demand model for various ground modes to assess their ability to attract air passengers. • Policy constraints on existing air carrier airports should be defined in terms on environmental impacts and should remain in place, except where relevant noise, air quality, and ground access impacts are mitigated.' Airport proprietors and/or the - Regional Airport Authority are encouraged to reassess constraints to determine if additional service can be provided, but in no case should constraints be lifted until negative impacts are mitigated. MOBILITY BENEFITS The improved inter-regional mobility benefits of an enhanced aviation system have an enormous implication for the economic development of the region. The challenge of the enhanced system is to meet environmental requirements. Significant impacts other than noise, air quality, and ground access that might occur over and beyond existing policy constraints should also be mitigated. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 8-6 Chapter Eight • Regional Aviation 51,stetn Program DRAFT DOCUMENT COMMERCIAL AIRPORT GROUND ACCESS INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND In 1982, SCAG adopted policies that support increased air service, but only if the resulting environmental and ground access impacts are mitigated. This was interpreted to mean that impacts associated with air service above policy constrained levels in 1982 would be mitigated. The outcome of the mitigation policy was the AiMort Impact Mitigation and Management Study, Phase I study (AIMMS), which was completed in 1985. That study contains an inventory of noise, air quality, and ground access impacts for the base year of 1982 and the forecast year of 2000. Later, consultants to SCAG prepared a comprehensive list of mitigations for each impact category, which are contained in the 1990 Phase II report. The AIMMS studies, and others conducted by local agencies, have focused predominantly on highway facilities. However, state law now requires multi-modal ground access studies for all commercial airports, and the federal Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) emphasizes the need to assess airport ground access in the context of regional intermodal access of the MTS as a whole. Consequently, detailed intermodal studies and transportation modeling will be conducted by SCAG for all five commercial airports. The first of these studies is for LAX and began in 1993. These studies will follow guidelines for the ISTEA Inter-modal Management System. RECOMMENDED GOAL • Provide adequate intermodal ground access for air passengers and air cargo to the region's commercial airports so that they can fulfill their transportation and economic functions. RECOMMENDED OBJECTIVES • By 1995 to conduct adequate intermodal and multi-modal analyses of ground access to the region's five metropolitan commercial airports. • Provide an environmentally compatible ground access system and to meet all air quality standards. SCAG• Regional Mobiliry Element • December, 1993 Page 8.7 Chapter Eight 0 Regional Aviation SYstem Program DRAFT DOCUMENT ASSESSMENT OF NEEDS AND DEFICIENCIES (FINDINGS) The consultants to the AIMMS study identified three tiers of roadway improvements for each airport area and prepared cost estimates for them. Needed roadway improvements will be updated in upcoming modeling and airport access studies. However, they will only be one component of the access studies; other components will include transit, Transportation System Management (TSM) and Transportation Demand Management (TDM). Findings Even though there are serious limitations to the AIMMS data, a number of observations can be made that will be relevant to future airport ground access studies. • A wealth of traffic and engineering studies have been produced for the highway element of ground access at all five commercial airports. However, much more work is needed for transit, rail, TDM, TSM and the intermodal connectivity with the rest of the MTS. • Total congested lane miles at the five airports would increase from 222.3 in 1982 to 466.0 by year 2000, which is a 109.6 percent increase. While these figures do not account for recent developments, they suggest a significant increase in congestion by 2000 and imply an even greater increase by 2010. These increases in congestion highlight the need to emphasize non-auto strategies for improving airport ground access. RECOMMENDED POLICIES • In accordance with state law (Assembly Bill 2487), SCAG will conduct multi-modal and intermodal ground access studies of the region's commercial airports for each update of the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). • Traffic impacts generated by significant new off-airport development should be mitigated if they worsen ground access to a commercial airport and reduce that airport's operational capacity. This especially applies to those areas where the commercial airport is host to nationwide and international air service. ?his type of mitigation should be a condition of project approval. • Traffic impacts generated by non-aviation developments on- airport should be mitigated through prudent planning. Such development is encouraged for revenue purposes, but only if it SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 8-8 Chapter Eight • Regional Aviation Svstern Program DRAFT DOCUMENT utilizes excess capacity not needed for aviation purposes. • SCAG, in cooperation with appropriate transportation agencies, should ensure that airport-related ground access projects are placed in the Regional Transportation Improvement Program (R77P). It is important to include airport planning staff in the identification of airport-related projects, especially those which link directly to the airport roadway system. • Support development of a multi-modal transportation demand model which integrates various ground transportation modes. MOBILITY BENEFITS LAX is the region's gateway to the rest of the world, particularly the Pacific Rim. It is also the gateway to the rest of the nation. In those two roles, it provides invaluable mobility for the region's citizens and is a significant factor in the regional economy. The subregional airports provide mostly intra-state mobility, which is invaluable in terms of mobility and the economy. They also serve more local air passengers, and take pressures off LAX and its ground access system. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 8-9 Chapler Eight • Regional Aviation Si-stem Program DRAFT DOCUMENT COMMERCIAL AIRPORT AIR CARGO INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND The shipment of freight by air is a growing phenomenon in the SCAG region. It parallels the region's increased integration into the global economy, the growing importance to that economy of quick and reliable freight movement, and the expanded production of high-value and time- sensitive products. Airborne exports have become increasingly important to the region's economy, as evidenced by the fact that the total value of airborne exports shipped out of the Los Angeles Customs District now exceeds the value for waterborne exports. During the past 12 years (1979-91), cargo volumes at the five air carrier airports in the region have increased by about 72 percent, from about 922,000 tons to about 1.5 million tons. It is interesting to note, however, that even during this recessionary period, international air cargo volumes increased by 19 percent during the first nine months of 1992. Because of ongoing structural changes in the economy, total air cargo volumes are expected to rise once again when recessionary conditions abate. Projections made by a recent SCAG study, Air Cargo in the SCAG region, indicate that volumes are expected to reach 2.7 million tons by the year 2000, and 4.8 million tons by 2010. Commercial airport capacity to handle air cargo will only reach 3 million tons by year 2000, so there will be a shortfall of capacity after that. Closing military air bases may ease that capacity shortfall. RECOMMENDED GOAL • Enhance air cargo handling capacity to serve demand and reduce congestion. RECOMMENDED OBJECTIVES • Quantify major trends in the air cargo industry since the advent of deregulation in 1979. • In the 1995 Regional Aviation System Plan, recommend measures to reduce projected shortfalls in cargo handling capacities by enhancing the cargo handling efficiencies of existing cargo facilities. • Recommend measures to reduce projected shortfalls in cargo handling capacities by adding major capacity increases to the existing system in the form of new or converted airports, or military airports if they became available. SCAG • Regional Mobilin, Element • December, 1993 Page 8-10 Chapter Eight • Regional Aviation Srstem Program DRAFT DOCUMENT ASSESSMENT OF NEEDS AND DEFICIENCIES (FINDINGS) The results of the recent air cargo analysis indicated the following: • Existing and currently planned cargo handling capacity in the region are able to accommodate projected year 2000 cargo volumes. However, existing and planned capacity falls short of meeting the 2010 projection by about 63 percent. • The greatest need for new cargo handling capacity in the region is to serve Orange County, not only to provide additional needed capacity, but also to minimize trucking impacts on the regional highway network associated with transporting cargo from Orange County manufacturing centers via truck to other airports. Since John Wayne Airport has very limited capacity potential to serve air cargo, other alternatives should be examined. RECOMMENDED POLICIES • Support development of a comprehensive strategy to find additional air cargo handling capacity in the region to reduce projected shortfalls in that capacity. A regional strategy should locate potential additional capacity as close to where cargo is produced as possible, and should evaluate the feasibility and relative effectiveness of new airports, conversion of military airports to commercial uses, and increasing cargo handling efficiencies at existing airports. • Ground freight routes should be planned that minimize impacts upon residential neighborhoods and heavy commuter routes. • The conversion of Norton AFB to civilian/commercial use is a most promising alternative for adding substantial new cargo handling capacity to the regional airport system. • For those military airbases that are, or will be closed by the Department of Defense, support conversion to commercial air service, including air cargo, if such bases have been determined to have a high technical and market potential for use as commercial air passenger and air cargo service airports. This policy most strongly applies to those subregions that cannot otherwise provide sufficient,environmentally acceptable capacity to meet their own local air cargo shipment demand. • Examine feasibility of commercial air cargo service at remaining active duty air bases if invited to do so by the military. • Long-term trends in the regional economic profile of Southern SCAG • Regional Mobility Element December, 1993 Page 8-11 Chapter Eight • Regional Aviation Si-stein Program DRAFT DOCUMENT California, their relationship to the world economy, and their implications for air cargo forecasts and handling capacity shortfalls, should be explored in an aviation strategic plan for the SCAG region. MOBILITY BENEFITS The primary mobility benefit that would potentially result from the implementation of the study's recommendations would be increased number of air passengers that could be served through the more effective use of available airport capacity, as well as future capacity increases such as the conversion of Norton AFB to a major air cargo facility. Since airports would also be less congested, there would also be fewer flight delays and less passenger inconvenience. This is in recognition that all of the air carrier airports in the region are ultimately subject to capacity constraints, and that there is competition between cargo and passenger flights for available airport capacity. Another potential mobility benefit would be the reduction of impacts of cargo-carrying trucks on the regional highway system, resulting from locating additional cargo handling capacity close to where the cargo is produced. In particular, the location of new cargo-handling capacity near manufacturing centers in Orange County would have significant beneficial impacts on surface transportation mobility. INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND An airport may at once be a local, regional, national, and international asset. For many years, there has been a policy question as to which of these levels should predominate in planning for and operation of commercial airports. Local communities affected by busy airports have emphasized the need for local participation in the mitigation of environmental and ground access impacts. While there has been progress in mitigating impacts over the past decade, particularly in the area of aircraft noise, environmental concerns remain for a number of affected communities. The business community has generally emphasized the regional,national, and international aspect of commercial airports in their role as generators of economic activity. This role is of growing importance during the prolonged recessionary period experienced in the SCAG region. The SCAG • Regional Mobilihl Element • December, 1993 Page 8-12 Chapter Eight • Regional Aviation System Program DRAFT DOCUMENT importance of the role of commercial airports in economic recovery is presented in the Aviation Strategic Element of this chapter. However, to fulfill this economic role, commercial airports must accommodate the demand for increased air service which generates impacts of concern to local communities. A number of mechanisms have been developed to achieve a balance between airport growth and environmental mitigation. In terms of noise, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) developed the Federal Air Regulation (FAR) Part 150 Noise Study program which included the participation of adjacent local jurisdictions. Part 150 studies were conducted for LAX, Burbank, Long Beach, and Ontario airports. These studies satisfied some communities, but not others. In addition, some local jurisdictions felt excluded from the Part 150 process and seek a mechanism to address their concerns. In other cases, local concerns resulted in environmental lawsuits which produced mixed results. SCAG has occasionally functioned as a mediator, but has no statutory authority in the area of airport noise. In terms of air quality mitigations, SCAG does have a statutory role in the development of aviation Transportation Control Measures (TCMs) which appeared in the 1989 and 1991 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP). The TCMs necessarily relate to airport ground access which is another area where SCAG has a role. SCAG is now required by state law to conduct multi-modal airport ground access studies as noted earlier in this chapter. The mechanisms noted above and others have brought satisfaction to some communities, but not others. This is particularly the case in terms of airport noise. A number of local elected officials have indicated that an adequate mechanism has yet to be developed to address their concerns, and that this issue needs to be acknowledged. SCAG • Regional Mobilhy Element • December, 1993 Page 8-13 Chapter Eight • Regional Aviation System Program DRAFT DOCUMENT GENERAL AVIATION AIRPORT SYSTEM INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND The primary focus of SCAG's aviation planning has traditionally been on the commercial airport system. However, the system of 44 general aviation airports in the SCAG region is the largest regional system in the world, and is deserving of SCAG's attention. This general aviation system is predominantly represented on SCAG's Aviation Technical .Advisory Committee (ATAC). All airports in the region are represented on ATAC, which is one of the longest-standing and most active of SCAG's committees. Collectively, general aviation and commercial airport managers have made immense contributions to SCAG's aviation planning during a very long period of time. The last SCAG General Aviation System Study was completed in 1987. A data update of the region is urgently needed, to verify trends that appear to be underway, and to formulate regional policy to guide the system in the future. A general aviation study began in the summer of 1993, and is under the guidance of ATAC. The resulting general aviation plan will identify capital needs, funding shortfalls, and new roles which general aviation airports could pursue. AVIATION STRATEGIC ELEMENT INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND In economic terms, the SCAG region is one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world. In 1991, the gross regional product of the SCAG region was $331 billion, making this region the 10th largest "nation" in the world economically. A few of the economic issues are described below and could be included in the Aviation Strategic Element. Accordingly, it has important financial, technical, social, and political relationships with other large economic regions in the world. All these relationships have implications for air travel and airport infrastructure, but they have never been studied in a systematic way. There is a need to assess and examine these relationships to better understand and formulate regional policy to guide the aviation system during the next two decades. That assessment would result in an Aviation Strategic Element of the regional Aviation System Plan, which is part of the RME. The following is a short description of some of those relationships that need to be examined. SCAG • Regional Mobilin• Element • December, 1993 Page 8-14 Chapter Eight • Regional Aviation System Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Airport Capacity and Air Service Implications • The capacity of commercial airports is nearing physical limits in this region, but also in other metropolitan regions in this country, around the Pacific Rim and in parts of Europe. What are the implication for the air movement of people and goods, and what are the implications for the regional economy and growth? Also, what implications does this have for closing military air bases? • Considerable additional airport capacity will be made available at the new Denver Airport and at the potential new international airport on the U.S.-Mexico border south of San Diego. Other capacity remains at existing airports in the San Francisco Bay area and Portland. What are the implications for the production and movement of air cargo? Does this portend the shift of production from the SCAG region to other regions? • How does the commercial airport system benefit the regional economy and job creation? How does the benefit compare to the cost of investment in airport infrastructure? • Commercial air routes from Pacific Rim countries over the former Soviet Union to Europe are currently being negotiated. Since those routes are more direct and are shorter, will Pacific Rim air traffic bypass the U.S. and the SCAG region? What are the implications for the regional economy and trade? • International air service for both air passengers and air cargo is the fastest growing component of air service and travel demand in the SCAG region. Will LAX be able to handle all of the international air service or will the other commercial airports need to accept international flights in the future? While it is recognized that not all subregional commercial airports can accommodate international service it may be important to identify which ones can. It may also be important to identify which of the closing military airbases can handle international service. What are the implications for Customs service and additional Customs districts? Will domestic service at LAX have to be constrained to accommodate the international traffic? Will the subregional airports need to host more medium- and long-haul service? Economic Implications • The SCAG region has many economic ties with other regions in the Pacific Rim, Canada, Latin America and Europe. What are the major economic trends in these other regions and what is the nature of their ties to the SCAG region? What is the future for SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 8-15 Chapter Eight • Regional Aviation 5\-stem Program DRAFT DOCUMEM international commerce and tourism between the U.S. and its international trading partners? What are their implications for commercial airports and air service in the SCAG region? • The North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) may soon be ratified. What are the long-term economic implications for Southern California, particularly in terms of economic development in Mexico? How will this affect the potential new U.S.-Mexico international airport and commercial airports in the SCAG region? How might it affect air cargo commodity production and movement in the SCAG region? What percentage of the cross-border cargo movement stimulated by the agreement will move by air versus trucks? Technology Implications A number of new technologies are now being implemented and others are on the horizon. They all have implications for the aviation system, a few of which are noted below. • The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a multiple satellite system now being put in place. Its accuracy will revolutionize the air navigation system and precision approaches. What affect will GPS have on airspace and airport capacity? • Some aircraft manufacturers have indicated their desire to produce a mega-airliner (800-1,000 seats), although currently 1 there is no movement in that direction. Will economic recovery of the airlines and a shortage of airport capacity lead to renewed interest in the mega-airliner? Will such an aircraft significantly 1 increase the air-side capacity of the region's airports? Can the airports accommodate such an aircraft? SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 8-16 Chapter Eight • Regional Aviation System Program DRAFT DOCUMENT ISSUES IN NEED OF FURTHER STUDY As the SCAG region's airport system moves through the next two decades, it will experience major problems, but it will also provide significant opportunities for the larger community. In that context, the following outstanding issues should be addressed in SCAG's aviation planning program. • The provision of adequate commercial airport capacity will continue to be the major challenge for the region's airport system. After the year 2000, the system will gradually experience a shortfall of capacity for serving both air passengers and air cargo. Further studies need to examine the implications for high-speed rail, remote airports, and the reuse of closed military air bases. • As the commercial airports near their physical capacity, ground access traffic congestion will worsen and may become the constraining factor in airport operations. Further airport ground access analysis and modeling are needed to identify appropriate multi-modal and inter-modal solutions. • General aviation airports in the region's airports system are experiencing the same fiscal pressures as local governments. SCAG's current general aviation study will examine how these airports can survive financially and what emerging roles will reinforce their value to the community. • During the next two decades, the SCAG region will experience dynamics resulting from airport capacity limitations, competition from airports in other regions and changing international relationships. There is a need to develop an aviation strategic element to assess these larger issues. One of the key issues is how to enhance economic opportunities generated by the commercial airport system. SCAG • Regional Mobility• Element • December, 1993 Page 8-17 !� = ',, y 77,mo o LONG-RANGE CORRIDORS INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND To meet mobility needs beyond the year 2010 it is likely that future long- range corridors will need to be identified and preserved in the SCAG region. Long-range corridors are defined as locations beyond the year 2010 where potential multi-modal transportation facilities might be built or sites that may be enhanced by adding facilities to increase the multi- modal nature of the corridor. This chapter highlights the importance of identifying future multi-modal transportation corridors and setting aside the necessary right of way, especially in areas where development may block an identified long-range corridor. Figure 9-1 provides a general description of corridors that have been identified and discussed through a variety of study efforts. EXISTING SETTING An early long-range corridor identification effort occurred in 1986-87 when SCAG, Riverside County Transportation Commission, San Bernardino Associated Governments, and Caltrans District 08 met to define long-term transportation needs for the urbanized portions of Riverside and San Bernardino counties. From 1988-89, SCAG's Overall Work Program set forth a program to expand the earlier long-range corridor identification effort. The Inland Empire Long Range Corridor Study is ongoing and completion is expected in the fall of 1993. Other corridor identification efforts include studies completed by county transportation commissions e.g., the Sierra-Cedar, the North-South, and the Cajalco Corridor studies. Caltrans through their system management plans have also identified future multimodal and intermodal corridors and longterm gaps. Depending on the degree of urbanization the application of different long-range corridor strategies is foreseeable. In the highly urbanized portions of the SCAG region, long-range corridor projects that enhance existing corridors requiring the acquisition of little right-of-way or using abandoned railroad lines are probable approaches. In the less-urbanized areas, more possibilities exist to identify and preserve new long-range corridors. Local governments have an opportunity to capitalize on preservation efforts, before urbanization reduces the availability of land for new transportation facilities, especially in areas that already have insufficient transportation capacity but are continuing to grow. Early efforts to identify and preserve right of way will reduce costs and minimize the difficulties of developing a corridor. SCAG • Regional Mobilin, Element • December, 1993 Page 9-1 .rana..arar I 03 ONIOyrNH39 NVS 1 co _O wi - r LL a a - -� w c ` uj 1 1, x xa U k b € w z \ R - i R� R I I t' W is I I i - \ - Z a W R fi J S W 0 o U — W � e Y CC N j O > N W T � LU Co v r D CC //L Z rn > d � rp x � m � V LJJ '� LU 0 2 Q Q o � c Z w m a ¢ ° a J � g m � m CD c i t d E ) QW eo c10 co � c E 0o rurauw rwrs � — � _ ;6 Chapter Nine • Long-Range Corridor DRAFT DOCUMENT POLICIES Guiding policies toward the development of long-range corridors include the following: • Support long-range corridors that will employ multi-modal and intermodal strategies designed to maintain mobility for people, goods, services, and information in ways that are safe, efficient, cost effective, meet environmental mandates, and foster economic development. • Support long-range projects and right-of-way preservation programs that foster the development of an urban form conducive to reducing single-occupant vehicle trips. ASSESSMENT OF NEEDS & DEFICIENCIES Reports such as the Los Angeles County Transportation 30-Year Integrated Transportation Plan, Imperial County's Transportation Plan, the Orange County Transportation Authority's Long-Range Transit Systems Plan and Development Strategy, plus the Orange County 2020 Vision (presently being drafted) illustrate the type of long-range corridor concepts that will need to be included in the region's future mobility plans. To develop these types of corridors there will need to be more linkages between land use planning and transportation planning efforts. At present there are limited provisions at the local level for this type of coordination, especially with regard to preserving right-of-way. - Regardless of how difficult the process, the future economic well-being of this region is dependent on how well post 2010 transportation needs are addressed. RECOMMENDATIONS Given the number of long-range plans focused at the county level, a regionwide post-2010 long-range corridor study is needed to provide a broader perspective of future needs. This effort should focus on the identification of corridors, the protection of right-of-way, and the development of the institutional framework to formalize the process. This effort will require developing criteria that guides the identification and prioritization of corridors and will involve considerable consensus building amongst competing public and private interests. Implementing the recommendations presented above would probably best be served by first developing a public information program that details the importance for local governments and subregions to proactively develop a long-range corridor strategy. A first step would include identifying studies done at the local level or other area, corridor, and SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 9-3 . .......... Chapter Nine • Long-Range Corridor DRAFT DOCUMEAT subregional studies that identify long-range needs. In addition, the long- range corridor effort should also involve the identification and setting aside of ROW for utility, communication, and freight corridors. MOBILITY BENEFITS The identification,prioritization,and implementation of projects on post- 2010 corridors provides the opportunity to develop multimodal and intermodal transportation systems that can provide benefits over present- day efforts constrained by managing congestion with limited resources. In the highly urbanized portions of the SCAG region, the enhancement of transportation corridors that move people and goods more efficiently with less reliance on the single-occupant vehicle will produce significant mobility benefits in this auto-oriented environment. In the less urbanized areas, the opportunity exists to develop corridors that meet a variety of transportation needs but may also influence the development of an urban form that will substantially improve all aspects of mobility. ISSUES IN NEED OF FURTHER STUDY • What additional corridors should be included? • What are the appropriate actions to preserve identified corridors? • What are the priorities of these corridors for the implementation of transportation facilities and services? • What are the financial and mobility benefits for the early identification and purchase of right of way? SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 9-4 JOr =L` EIS TEN: FINANCIAL PROGRAM INTRODUCTION The 1989 Regional Mobility Plan (RMP) (for the period 1990 through 2010)forecast transportation capital revenues of about$21 billion against planned capital expenditures of about $44 billion thus identifying a $23 billion deficit. In addition, the 1989 RME projected an annualized operating and maintenance shortfall of almost $3 billion. Under the planning "ground-rules" existing at that time, there was no need to balance expenditures and revenues. The 1989 RMP did not identify specific ways of meeting the projected deficits although it did offer suggestions. Enactment of the federal Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) changed the playing field. Under the new requirements, the Plan must do the following: "Include a financial plan that demonstrates how the long- range plan can be implemented, indicates resources from public and private sources that are reasonably available to carry out the plan, and recommends any innovative financing techniques to finance needed projects and programs, including such techniques as value capture, tolls, and congestion pricing. "REASONABLY EXPECTED" OR "INNOVATIVE" The language of ISTEA states that "innovative"financing techniques may be recommended in the Plan. For a funding technique to be considered "innovative," the technique must not be in the implementation process, or approved for implementation, in the SCAG region as of the date of Plan adoption. For example, tolls will not be considered innovative since they are currently approved for implementation within the SCAG region. Congestion pricing techniques will be considered innovative since they have not been approved anywhere in the SCAG region. Innovative financing techniques will be evaluated against the criteria for determining reasonably expected. While Innovative Techniques do not require a YES to all criteria, decision-makers should consider the evaluation in determining if the funding technique should be recommended in the Plan. Discussions with Federal Highway Administration officials suggest that while they will accept local decisions with respect to reasonably expected ISTEA(23 USC 134 ct seq.) SCAG 0 Regional MobiliA, Element 0 December, 1993 Page 10-1 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT innovative funding, the}, will look for post plan adoption actions to determine the commitment of the region to implementing the innovative measures. Proposed implementing regulations of the Clean Air Act include the following: "§51.399 Fiscal constraints for transportation plans and TIPs "(a) Transportation plans. The ISTEA requires that the transportation plan include a financial plan that demonstrates how the transportation plan can be implemented, indicates resources from public and private sources that are reasonably expected to be available throughout the plan's timeframe, and recommends any innovative financing techniques to finance needed projects and programs,[emphasis added] including such techniques as value capture, tolls, and congestion pricing. "(b) 77Ps. The ISTEA requires that full funding must be reasonably anticipated to be available for a project,[emphasis added] or an identified phase of a project, within the time period contemplated for completion of the project prior to its inclusion in a TIP. The ISTEA also requires a financial plan that demonstrates how the TIP can be implemented, indicates resources from public and private sources that are reasonably expected to be made available for its implementation, and recommends any innovative financing techniques to finance needed projects and programs." There is additional language in the Clean Air Act that strongly supports the requirement that conformity requires a funding commitment: "(B) no metropolitan planning organization or other recipient of funds under title 23, United States Code, or the Urban Mass Transportation Act shall adopt or approve a transportation improvement program of projects until it determines that such program provides for timely implementation of transportation control SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-2 1 .. Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT measures consistent with schedules included in the applicable implementation plan;` The Clean Air Act amendments of 1990 provide that the long-range plan and the RTIP are subject to conformity requirements. This requirement means that the RTP and the RTIP must meet the air quality objectives established in the applicable State Implementation Plan. Accordingly, this means that the programs and projects proposed in the plans must be implemented according to defined schedules and that there must be funding available. Thus the question becomes how to prepare a conforming RTP and program that might include funds that may not be available at the time of adoption. SCAG is defining' "reasonably expected" funds to include all existing sources at the federal, state, and local levels. For certain measures that have a defined lifetime (e.g. local sales tax measures in several SCAG counties), the "reasonably expected" funds will not continue past their defined life. For other measures, (e.g. funding authorizations under _ ISTEA), it is assumed that these sources will nonetheless continue at the same level in current dollars as there is strong historical data to support this assumption. CRITERIA FOR REASONABLY AVAILABLE FUNDING SCAG is using the following criteria to determine whether a funding source should be considered "reasonably" available. These criteria are generally consistent with the Final FHWA/FTA Rules on Metropolitan Transportation Planning, issued on October 28, 1993: • Has the proposed implementing agency (local, regional, state or federal government or private organization)taken a formal action by the time of Plan adoption to authorize the funding source? • Is there a historical trend that resources of this type are usually approved by the public or their representatives? • Have private sector organizations (such as the Chamber of Commerce, trade organizations, businesses, private task forces, etc.) shown support (e.g. policy, action, education) for the proposed funding mechanism? 2 42 U.S.0 7506 3 The definitions of"reasonabl y expected,'and "innovative'as well as the criteria for determining 'reasonably expected'have been approved as working definitions for the Regional Mobility Plan by the Transportation and Communications Committee of SCAG. SCAG a Regional Mobility Element 411 December, 1993 Page 10-3 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT • Has the state or federal government taken action required as a prerequisite or condition for enabling the resource by the time of Plan adoption? In order for a funding measure/mechanism to be considered "reasonably expected," each of the criteria must be answered YES or NOT APPLICABLE. Funding sources used to establish revenues have been subjected to the criteria and only those funding sources that have received a YES have been included in setting revenue estimates. EXISTING REVENUE SOURCES Under the working criteria for reasonably available, the following sources of funds are considered "Reasonably Available." Federal Revenues • Federal Fuel Tax (through Highway Trust Fund) (Portion allocated to Transportation)Will continue at current rate through authorized period. • General Funds will continue at current levels. The two foregoing sources provide the funds for the following ISTEA programs: Interstate Completion, National Highway System, Surface Transportation Program (STP), Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality(CMAQ), Federal Lands, Federal Transit Section 3 Discretionary,Federal Transit Sections 9, 16(b)2 and 18 Formula, Federal Lands State Revenues • State Fuel Tax will continue at rate authorized by statues approved as of 1993. M General Funds will continue at current levels. • State Transit Bonds assumes $3 billion as approved by voters in 1990 (Prop. 108, 116). w Registration/Weight Fees will continue at rate authorized by statues approved as of 1993. The foregoing state revenue sources fund the following State Transportation programs: SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-4 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMEM' Local subventions, TSM, State-Local Partnership, Enhancements, Maintenance and Rehabilitation,Flexible Congestion Relief, Soundwalls, Interregional Roads Local Revenues • Transportation Development Act (TDA) will continue for entire plan period. • County Sales Tax Measures will continue for entire plan period (through 2015) for Los Angeles County and through authorized life (through 2010) for Imperial, Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. • County Bond Measures. Any county bond measures currently authorized by voters are considered reasonably expected even if actual bonds not marketed • Private Bond Measures. Any private bond measure currently authorized by the required private organizations are considered reasonably expected even if actual bonds have not been marketed. • Benefit Assessment District Revenues. Any revenues being received from currently authorized benefit assessment districts are considered reasonable and will continue • Development Fees. Current agreements for Development Mitigation Fees are considered reasonably available • Toll Roads. Tolls from roads/projects currently open, under construction, or planned, which have legally complete and enforceable agreements, will be considered reasonably expected. POTENTIAL REVENUE SOURCES The following revenue sources are not considered reasonably available at this time. Upon further analysis, some of these may move into another category. • Additional or New Local Sales Tax(es) for Transportation • Increases in the Federal Fuel Tax • Increases in the State Fuel Tax New Bond Measures SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page lay -1 Chapter Ten • Financial Progrmn DRAFT DOCUMENT • New Tolls on roads/projects not subject to legally complete and enforceable agreements. INNOVATIVE REVENUE SOURCES The following revenue sources do not currently exist within the SCAG region. While they have potential for meeting the reasonably available funding criteria and being implemented during the time frame of the RME and the RTIP, they do not currently meet the criteria. These sources should be monitored for their potential for meeting the criteria. These and other sources should be studied, pursued, and developed in accord with other recommendations of the appropriate SCAG committee such as TCC, Implementation, Market Incentives Task Force, and Technology Task Force. • Emissions Fees • Congestion Pricing Fees • Tariffs i • Accident Reduction Fees I • "Pay at the Pump" Funding (e.g. for Insurance) I The ability to finance transportation improvements in the SCAG region has increased greatly in the few years since the 1989 RMP was adopted due to increased federal funding authorizations under ISTEA, enactment I of the California "Transportation Blueprint" in 1989 and subsequent statewide voter approval, and enactment of additional 1/2% sales taxes in five SCAG counties. Assuming the maintenance at current levels of local, state, and federal resources throughout the plan period at current levels, revenues are reasonably available to finance the "Constrained Alternative" 2B the Regional Mobility Element. All cost and revenues discussed in this section are summarized in the Table 10-1. As stated earlier, the 1993 Financial Plan is significantly different from the plan in the 1989 RMP in that the current version must be financially constrained. That is, funds to support programs and projects included in the plan must be reasonably available. The programs and projects of the 1903 RME are collectively subjected to air quality conformity requirements. As such, there is a legally binding commitment to implement the programs and projects. Lack of funding may not be used as justification for not implementing those portions of the plan subjected to the conformity testing. Matching projected revenues against projected costs over a twenty year period is extremely complex given the current fiscal environment. For SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-6 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT example, estimates of revenues and costs naturally have a built in assumption that the "project," "plan," or program is well defined and will not change over the forecast period. Unfortunately, this is not the case in Southern California. The usual (historical)trends in the economy are not being followed. California, somewhat immune to a recessionary environment in the past, seems to be hit harder than during previous cycles. Various earmarked funds for transportation are being examined for other purposes. On the cost side, more and more of the existing capital facilities of the transportation system are reaching the twilight of their useful life. Costs for maintenance and rehabilitation are rising. Following the Loma Prieta earthquake and the collapse of the Cypress Viaduct in the Bay Area, the State has embarked upon a very significant seismic safety rehabilitation program. It has proved more costly than anticipated and more roadways are affected than previously thought. Table 10-1 illustrates a $5 billion gap between projected revenues and costs. This deficit is a regional deficit. Tables 10-2A through 10-2F will illustrate County summaries when completed. The projected deficit is not acceptable and discussions are underway to determine what steps are needed to produce a Plan which can be adopted. It should be understood that while projections of actual cash and restrictions on the use of certain funds may leaves gaps in funding for specific program categories, the bottom line is that Plan as a whole must be in balance. For example, if transit operating costs exceed projected revenues, it may be acceptable to utilize surplus funds from another category to reach a balance. This analysis is also underway. It is also possible that the overall revenues will decline as revenue projections are revised to reflect actual figures. As well, costs may increase if the adopted Plan adds projects to the Constrained Alternative rather than forcing a trade-off between projects. REVENUE FORECAST As with the 1989 plan, the financial summary presented here relies on revenues derived from federal, state, and local sources. While the involvement of each sector remains strong, it is important to note the significant effort made by the several local governments involved to finance improvements to, and maintenance of the transportation network. Federal Share The 1991 ISTEA defines federal participation in transportation financing. The Act is significant in several ways, including the added flexibility in the use of funds. This attribute is considered essential in heightening the efficiency of transportation investment. Also, the ISTEA recognizes the relationship between transportation and air quality policies. To this end, the ISTEA contains funds within the Congestion Mitigation and Air SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-7 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Quality Program (CMAQ) to overcome the negative effects of the transportation network. ISTEA provides roughly 110 percent of the funding available from the previous six-year period. The RME forecast assumes the same level of funding, less inflation, through the plan period. These funds are then anticipated to be distributed within the state based on the existing north- south split and county minimum allocations. Based on these assumptions, about $14.3 billion will be available to the state from FHWA and FTA sources during the plan period. Additionally, federal funding from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Federal Railroad Administration may be available to finance portions of the Metropolitan Transportation System. These funds are currently not included in the Revenues and Costs of Table 10-1. State Share State revenues continue to reach the region through existing funding programs, including programs for system management, congestion relief and transit assistance. Also available is funding from Propositions 108 and 116. The latter, Proposition 116, authorizing the state to assume $1.99 billion in long-term debt, was not anticipated in the 1989 RMP. Proposition 108, in addition to authorizing $1 billion in debt, was the first of three such measures authorized by the California Legislature. The second of these measures to come up, Proposition 156, was defeated by the voters in 1992. However, the financial projections included here assume that funding covered by this proposition will be provided through - a subsequent action by either the Legislature or the electorate. This assumption is based on the estimates of various funds, developed every two years and adopted by the California Transportation Commission. Although some state transportation resources are derived in part from general taxation, the majority of transportation funds are gained from the state gasoline tax and motor vehicle license fees. The assumption that state funding will continue, less inflation, is made without regard for how the revenues are generated. It is strongly recommended, however, that the state continue to rely on the gas tax as a source of revenues, and that steps be taken to ensure a constant stream of funds, considering greater fuel efficiency standards and transition to alternative fuels. With the assumptions stated above, it is expected that approximately$13 billion will be available in the region from the state. California statute (SB 707) requires that Regional Transportation Planning Agencies (SCAG is an RTPA), develop a regional airport capital improvement program. The Regional Airport Capital Improvement Program was completed for the first time in 1993. It contains $2.2 billion in commercial airport projects and $3.3 billion in SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 14.8 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT general aviation projects. Revenue data are not available, but a survey is underway to obtain the information. The $5.5 billion is not included in the cost estimates of Table 10-1. Local Sources In the past few years, revenues generated at the local level has shown the greatest increase of all sources. Since the 1989 plan was adopted, five of the six counties in the SCAG region have adopted half-cent sales tax measures. Local efforts continue to receive support from the Local Transportation Fund, the quarter-cent sales tax collected by the counties. As well, the county transportation commissions are making strident efforts to realize the value of existing holdings and future investments through joint development and mixed-use facilities at transit-related sites. Although the potential for generating revenues is great, certain distinct flaws in use of sales tax has become evident. Along with most general taxation alternatives, the sales tax is inequitable and fails to equate use of a service with the related costs. Also, as is evident not only in the region, but across the state and nation, this form of taxation is inseparable from the overall state of the economy. Both the bus and rail networks will contribute to local revenues through farebox returns. It is anticipated that up to $10.4 billion can be generated by the farebox, assuming the transit operators are allowed to keep fares in line with inflation. This issue has been continuously addressed by the transit community and public policy-makers generally, because of the needs of the transit-dependent. However, given that it is difficult to anticipate any general increase in subsidies, the transit properties must have the latitude to support operations through either fares or other internal revenue sources. Despite these limitations, local share has become the dominant form of transportation financing. Through the Plan period, it is anticipated that about $41.6 billion will be generated from local programs. Although some$68.9 billion in revenues are forecast, not all this amount will go toward programs identified in this plan. There are several small and large fund categories that are not relevant to the regional network. For instance, a large share of the ISTEA's Surface Transportation Program funds are generally intended to replace the former FAU-FAS funding. After accounting for these other programs, approximately $57.4 billion is available to finance the Base Plan in the RME. MARKET INCENTIVES Uses of various transportation facilities are influenced by financial considerations. For example, a commuter who enjoys free parking at the SCAG • Regional Mobility FJeinent • December, 1993 Page 10-9 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT job site may tend to shun use of public transportation while a neighbor who has to pay for parking his vehicle might consider taking the bus. Another commuter might be persuaded to rideshare if there was some financial incentive. Towards this end, SCAG has established a Market Incentives Task Force to explore the ways that the market place may be used to influence the demand on transportation facilities. Another example of a market incentive would be congestion-pricing. For example, use of a facility might be free during off-peak hours while a fee would be charged during peak demand periods. Or, perhaps, a facility might be free for a three-person carpool, a small fee for a two-person carpool, and a larger fee for a single occupant vehicle. Currently, SCAG has applied for a grant to examine the impact of various fees on the Route 91 toll road between Orange and Riverside Counties. This grant will assess congestion pricing as a market incentive. The project will be incorporated into the Overall Work Program. For additional information regarding market incentives, please see the Idiscussion in Chapter 3, Regional Transportation Demand Management. COSTS (EXPENDITURE PROJECTION) The RME identifies six cost categories, including highways, regional streets and roads, rail capital and operating, bus capital and operating, Transportation Demand Management (TDM) and Non-motorized Transportation. The costs required to provide the levels of service identified in the Base Plan are presented below. (Please note that costs for TDM and Non-motorized Transportation are still in development.) Highways Increases identified in the highway network, including High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes and all related facilities will cost approximately $14.9 billion. However, this figure includes the cost of Orange County toll facilities that are not reflected on the revenue side. Excluding those projects, the total cost for the highway program is $12.2 billion. Also not counted here are costs for maintaining the state and federal highway route network. The highway component can be further divided into three categories; highway, HOV and a third component that here is called "Highway Blend". This last category includes those projects that include both mixed-flow and HOV lanes. The mixed-flow portion includes $ 3.1 billion in improvements, HOV is $4.7 billion, and the highway blend is $4.5 billion. Each category includes related facility work that is not SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-10 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT always counted in terms of lane miles, such as interchanges, bridge work and ramp improvements. Regional Streets and Roads Integration of local arterials into the regional transportation network is supported by specific funding at all levels. In total, some $700 million in costs are identified. As noted earlier, this figure does not include local maintenance efforts. Also excluded at this time are costs associated with improvements to the Alameda Corridor.` Transit The transit costs for the study period total $35.6 billion for both capital and operating. The transit program contains roughly$12.2 billion in rail capital and $5.6 billion in associated operating costs. This total combines local, commuter and inter-city rail programs. Bus costs are composed of operating ($17.3 billion) and related capital costs of$500 million for bus replacement. The transit costs assume no change in the aggregate level of bus service; the capital costs identified are for bus replacement only. However, some redeployment is likely. The rail expenses focus on the local services in Los Angeles County — the Red, Blue and Green lines -- and Metrolink operations throughout the region. The SCAG baseline also includes six candidate urban rail corridors or corridor extensions not currently programmed by the implementing agencies. It is anticipated that a substantial part of the transit operating deficit (approximately $1.9 billion over the Plan period) will be met by increased revenues. Revenue alternatives are being developed by the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority. Adoption of a revised financial plan is expected during the Spring, 1994. Local Programs As noted earlier, local governments receive a share of federal, state and local funds for their own programs. These programs often have the potential for positively affecting regional transportation trends; for instance, signalization and intersection improvements are done from this mix of funds. However, the facilities involved are not considered to be regionally significant by definition; therefore, this investment is not identified as part of this analysis. ` Local and Regional Streets and Roads operating and maintenance costs will be added to the Plan as they are known. It is expected that the costs will be supported by reasonably available funding sources. The Alameda Corridor Project is estimated to cost about $1.3 billion(1993 dollars). Revenues to support these costs arc being developed and will be added to the Plan when the Corridor Financial Plan is adopted(December, 1993). If the anticipated revenues do not meet the costs,certain projects may not be included in the Plan. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-11 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT LIFE CYCLE COSTS Life-cycle costs are taken into account through assuring that Highway operating and maintenance expenses are included. The State of California has enacted legislation which takes maintenance and operations Icosts "off-the-top" of funds available for state highway projects through the Highway System Operations and Plan Protection (HSOPP) program; these funds are not subject to the North-South split and/or county minimums. Transit bus replacements are scheduled every 12 years per federal guidelines. It is expected that approximately 300 buses will be replaced each year and these costs have been included in Table 10-1. An examination of rail transit replacement and rehabilitation costs, in addition to other bus transit life-cycle costs, is underway to insure that these costs are reflected in the financial tables. FINANCIAL POLICIES The 1989 Regional Mobility Element included several policies specifically related to Financial Objectives and Programs. These policies remain generally viable and are listed as follows: (suggested wording changes from the 1989 RME are shown in italics: • Primary reliance should be placed on user based financing approaches to finance transportation projects. • Increases in the Federal, State, and/or local fuel taxes and weight fees, and flexibility in their use, shall be supported to fund implementation of the adopted Plan and its identified programs and projects. • The addition of local transportation taxes (e.g. local sales tax) in all counties should be supported to fund facility expansion, operating costs, system and demand-management programs of the adopted Plan. • Peak period pricing, user fees or other mechanisms should be introduced to reduce peak period traffic demand. 0 Value capture approaches to raising revenues (e.g. benefit assessments and development fees) should be used to recoup some of the costs of the capital and operating shortfalls. • Increasing public funding levels for local streets and road shall be supported in order to reduce backlogged improvements needs with priority given to deteriorated facilities. SCAG • Regional Mobility, Element • December, 1993 Page 10-12 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT STP AND CMAQ PROGRAMMING POLICIES In 1992, SCAG adopted several policies regarding programming of the federal Surface Transportation Program(STP)and Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Program (CMAQ) funds: • Programming of the Surface Transportation Program(STP)funds and Congestion Mitigation funds shall be the primary responsibility of the respective County Transportation Commission, consistent with federal and state law, the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), and in conformance with the applicable Air Quality Management Plan. • Implementation of transportation control measures (TCMs) required by the Air Quality Management Plan, including growth and demand management measures, shall be a high priority for expenditure of all STP and CMAQ funds. • Cities and Counties are eligible to utilize the STP and CMAQ funds for demand management and growth management transportation control measures and will be so advised by the appropriate County Transportation Commission. • The County Transportation Commissions have the responsibility either directly or through an agreement to document expeditious implementation of the TCMs. • A local Surface Transportation Program (LSTP) shall be developed and administered established within each County area consistent with state implementing legislation. LSTP projects will be prioritized in each County by the County Transportation Commission consistent with the new ISTEA federal legislation which requires multimodal flexibility. Maintenance and rehabilitation projects which do not increase capacity are exempt from conformity. Following a transition period not to exceed r three fiscal years, all LSTP programming decisions must be based on a discretionary process;formula apportionments will no longer be acceptable. Each county area will be apportioned an amount not less than 110% of the FY 1990-91 FAU apportionment for the LSTP program. There will be a 2-3 year period, as needed, to transition from the old FAU program to the new LSTP to all projects 'currently in the adopted RTIP to continue without interruption. • County Transportation Improvement Programs shall be submitted to SCAG before County Transportation Commission adoption for review and comment through the AB 1246 process. The Regional TIP will be adopted by SCAG following its SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-13 L 0 Chapter Ten • Financial Prograin DRAFT DOCUMEAT presentation and review by the 1246 Committee. SCAG adoption will include a conformity finding. If SCAG is unable to resolve identified conflicts, SCAG will adopt the components of the program which are possible to adopt and refer back to the respective CTC those projects which present conformity conflicts for reconciliation. In the event that the respective CTC is unable to reconcile the conflict in a timely fashion, recommendations will be made by the 1246 Committee. ISSUES IN NEED OF FURTHER STUDY The new federal transportation legislation, ISTEA, requires the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) to demonstrate that revenues are reasonably assured of covering anticipated capital and operating costs of the RMP. In developing the Constrained Alternative, consideration must be given to how the region pays for the capital, maintenance, and operating requirements of the preferred transportation system. At the Ipresent time, the Draft Plan does not meet this requirement. This requirement must be addressed and resolved prior to Plan adoption. In addition to demonstrating adequate financial resources to expand the exiting transportation system to meet demand, the Plan must demonstrate adequate revenues to operate and maintain the existing system. While it appears that adequate revenues are available to operate and maintain the State Highway system, a closer examination must be made of the regional streets and roads system to determine if adequate funds are available to operate and maintain them. Transit operating and maintenance costs are currently reflected in the financial tables of this Draft Plan. However, a detailed examination of these costs is being made to insure that these costs reflect current assumptions. In developing the Draft Plan, revenues and costs are illustrated for the entire SCAG region. While some of the revenue and costs estimates can easily be broken into County totals, others were developed at the regional level. Work is underway to identify the revenues and costs of Table 10-1 at the County level. When completed the blank Tables 10-2A through 10-2F will be completed. I SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-14 0 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 10-1 1993 REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT COST-REVENUE SUMMARY (a) 1991 - 2010 PROGRAM COST %-AGE ZEVENUE NET Highway $6.4 11.8 $6.3 ($0.1) Operating Transit 22.9 42.7 21.0 (1.9) Operating Regional 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.7 Streets and Roads Transit 12.7 23.7 9.7 (3.0) Capital Highway 10.6 19.6 9.0 (1.6) Capital Transportation 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 Demand Management (b) Non- 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 motorized Transportation (b) TOTAL - 53.7 100.0 48.5 (5.2) ALL PROGRAMS (A) All dollars are is billions (b) Estimated SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-15 Chapter Ten • Financial Program TABLE 10-2A DRAFT DOCUMENT 1993 REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT COST-REVENUE SUMMARY IMPERIAL COUNTY PROGRAM COST % REVENUE NET Highway Capital Highway Operating Regional Streets and Roads Transit Capital Transit Operating Transportation Demand Management Non-Motorized Transportation TOTAL SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-16 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 10-2B 1993 REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT COST-REVENUE SUMMARY LOS ANGELES COUNTY PROGRAM COST % REVENUE NET Highway Capital Highway Operating Regional Streets and Roads Transit Capital Transit Operating Transportation Demand Management Non-Motorized Transportation TOTAL SCAG • Regional MobilifY Element • December, 1993 Page 10-17 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 10-2C 1993 REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT COST-REVENUE SUMMARY ORANGE COUNTY PROGRAM COST % REVENUE NET Highway Capital Highway Operating Regional Streets and Roads Transit Capital Transit Operating Transportation Demand Management Non-Motorized Transportation TOTAL SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-18 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 10-21) 1993 REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT COST-REVENUE SUMMARY RIVERSIDE COUNTY PROGRAM COST % REVENUE NET Highway Capital Highway Operating Regional Streets and Roads Transit Capital Transit Operating Transportation Demand Management Non-Motorized Transportation TOTAL SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 1419 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMEAT TABLE 10-2E 1993 REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT COST-REVENUE SUMMARY SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY PROGRAM COST % REVENUE NET Highway Capital Highway Operating Regional Streets and Roads Transit Capital Transit Operating Transportation Demand Management Non-Motorized Transportation TOTAL SCAG 0 Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 10-20 Chapter Ten • Financial Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 10-2F 1993 REGIONAL MOBILITY ELEMENT COST-REVENUE SUMMARY VENTURA COUNTY PROGRAM COST % REVENUE NET Highway Capital Highway Operating Regional Streets and Roads Transit Capital Transit Operating Transportation Demand Management Non-Motorized Transportation TOTAL SCAG • Regional Mobifiry Element • December, 1993 Page 1421 :�Z � L � REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION CONTROL MEASURE (TCM) _ PROGRAMS INTRODUCTION Transportation Control Measures (TCMs) are transportation and land- use-based strategies that are intended to reduce the amount of pollutants emitted into the air from motor vehicles by changing the way people _ make trips, alleviating traffic congestion and facilitating infrastructure changes to promote alternatives to single-occupant vehicles (SOV). Such measures span the range of mobility strategies contained in the Regional Mobility Element (RME) from provision of infrastructure to offer alternatives to SOV travel, traffic flow improvement strategies, changes in transportation pricing structures, changes in local land-use patterns, institution of demand management strategies, to restrictions on automobile use, and efforts to reduce aviation, goods movement and locomotive emissions. Both federal and state legislation provide a significant role for the development, funding, and implementation of TCMs in non-attainment areas. It is crucial that the mobility strategies contained in the RME provide for the implementation of TCMs in the respective air quality plans to ensure that air quality improvements continue, and the flow of transportation funding to the region is maintained. Moreover, requirements at the state and federal level specify that all reasonably available TCMs be implemented as part of an air quality attainment strategy. The federal attainment status for each non-attainment area is summarized in Table 11-1. The air basin and air district boundaries are noted in Figures 11-1, and I1-2, respectively. TABLE 11-1 STATUS OF NON-ATTAINMENT AREAS POLLUTANT AREA Ozone CO NO, PM, South Coast Air Basin Extreme Serious Non-attainment Serious Ventura County Severe Attainment Attainment Attainment San Bernardino Severe Attainment Attai invent Attainment County -Mojave Moderate Desert (Searles Valley) i Coachella Valley Severe Unclassified Attainment Serious Imperial County Transitional Unclassified Attainment Non-attainment North Los Angeles Severe Unclassified Attainment Attainment County SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 11-1 M 0; V of � � N ^, C tc CL L aP JP Q C o a W 0 U) Cl W Cl ¢ z'. ¢ Q -- z W in z cn I 0 z E 0 U O 0 C O N N 7 U An ui 0 z o, cr Q Y C0 p m W O � ui I Lj Q �_ 7 C C ` cc O C Cc o m CD < z C m Q C `J W w Q Y z ca U O� I - UJ L) m m a � ~ o rn 0 0 0 o Z cn to U) U n o '00 YUVBUVS V1NVS CA N N «� r z ' d C LL Z . ........... ON OP �P �J i O s i� �C i C � 1 O i Z Z W W > m (� Z Q o U) U O Z C d E +� U 8 0 C w O O N N 3 to U Z c Q � c lA p Y W ca J m W ro U z Z r Q U LL a) c LU V E C[ I d U U m c F- Lu C m �. ¢ a O cc v (_� 1 Z �°c 1° O r LIJ Q 4 �Q �m H C h 7 (1 I ��/V�� m !� W O C m O VJ co O Z m c o> i ^ IW o= o o a aCi o a> � e Q > cnQ U to E > CY) H I M EIM "m Wwvvkive vU,vs m Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT The RME contains a broad range of potential strategies available for development as TCMs. Those strategies selected from the RME as TCMS will, however, have to be further refined to meet more stringent requirements placed on TCMs—enforceability, detailed accountability, and quantifiability. The degree to which TCMs are to be relied upon in an area's attainment strategy is key in determining the mobile source emission budget used for conformity purposes. This budget is essentially the maximum amount of emissions that may come from mobile sources. In the event this budget is exceeded, both vehicle controls and TCMs must be used to mitigate the greater emission impacts. The TCM chapter focuses on the efforts being undertaken in the region to refine TCMs for inclusion in the federal attainment plan submittals due to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by November 15, 1994. Additional information on both the air quality plans, TCM implementation efforts to date, and overarching issues that have arisen in developing a comprehensive attainment strategy that contains TCMs can be found in the Air Quality chapter of the Regional Comprehensive Plan (RCP). TCM Development and Implementation Requirements By November 15, 1994, non-attainment areas for ozone are required to submit an ozone plan as required by the federal Clean Air Act (CAA). For severe and extreme non-attainment areas, these plans must contain TCMs. The South Coast Air Basin(SCAB), the Ventura County portion of the South Central Coast Air Basin (SCCAB) and Mojave Desert Air Quality Management District are in the process of refining the TCMs in the existing Air Quality Management/Attainment Plans for their respective areas. In addition, Federal Implementation Plans (FIP) are also in the process of being developed for SCAB and Ventura County. Federal and State Requirements Importance of TCMs in Attainment Plans While the relative necessity of including TCMs in the overall air quality attainment strategy differs by air basin, failure to attempt to maximize their use in conjunction with all other strategies has the potential to create significant financial ramifications for the region. In the federal CAA, Section 179 (b)' provides for highway sanctions, which may be imposed by the EPA Administrator. Although safety projects are categorically exempted, all remaining projects could be sanctioned. 1 42 USC 7408 SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 11-4 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT Both state and federal requirements exist for TCMs. These are contained in the federal CAA, the Lewis-Presley Act for the South Coast Air Basin, the California Clean Air Act (CCAA) for the Ventura and Southeast Desert Air Basin (SEDAB), and in the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA). These requirements, noted in Table 11-2, identify actions that must be considered and requirements regarding transportation conformity and funding. Any mobility-based strategies intended to be included as a TCM in an attainment plan must meet these criteria. Moreover, the federal CAA requires the implementation of all reasonably available TCMs, as summarized in Section 108(f)= of the CAA and Table 11-3. TABLE 11-2 TCM REQUIREMENTS FEDERAL STATE 108(f) list of TCMs Implement TCMs considered t reasonably available TCMS must be: AQMP to provide for TCMs Enforceable Quantifiable Replicable Accountable Contribute to an increase in Cost-effectiveness large employer peak period "AVR" Offset growth of emissions due Monitoring procedures for to increases in VMT or Vehicle compliance and effectiveness Trips 1.5 AVO by 1999 Substantially reduce the rate of increase in VMT Publicly Acceptable Conformity Conformity is the process by which the Metropolitan Planning Organization (SCAG in its six-county region), ensures that the projects, programs, and plans adopted, funded, and implemented in the region provide for the implementation of TCMs contained in the applicable State 2 42 USC 7408(i)(1)(A) SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 11-5 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (ITCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT :Implementation Plan (SIP) for each air basin. Section 176(3)(c)' specifies that no department, agency, or instrumentality of the federal government shall engage in, support any way, provide financial assistance for, license or permit, or approve any activity that does not conform to an attainment plan after it has been approved. Thus, it is critical that the RME provide for the implementation of TCMs contained in the applicable attainment plans. TABLE 11-3 FEDERAL REASONABLY AVAILABLE TCMS Section 108(f) 1. Programs for improved transit 2. HOV and bus lanes 3. Employer-based transportation management plans 4. Trip reduction ordinances 5. Traffic flow improvements 6. Fringe and corridor park and ride facilities 7. Auto use restrictions 8. Provision of HOV/shared ride services 9. Limitations to encourage use of facilities/areas by pedestrians and bicycles 10. Bicycle facilities 11. Programs to control extended vehicle idling 12. Programs to reduce extreme cold start emissions 13. Employer-sponsored flexible work schedules 14. Programs and ordinances to facilitate alternatives to SOv use in planning and development, including new shopping centers, special events and other centers 15. Construction of non-motorized and pedestrian facilities 16. Programs to encourage voluntary removal of pro-1980 vehicles TCM REFINEMENT EFFORTS BY AIR BASIN SCAG, local governments, subregional associations, wunty transportation commissions,Caltrans,transit providers,airport operators, railroad and trucking industry,building industry,rideshare organizations, and others play important roles in coordinating with both each other and with the appropriate AQMD/APCD in developing and implementing TCMs. While it is anticipated that the breadth of strategies contained in the RME will be more comprehensive than the TCMs ultimately agreed upon in the 1994 AQMPs, to the extent that the TCMs are more ambitious, the RME may need to be amended. 3 42 USC 7506(c) SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 11-6 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT South Central Coast Air Basin - Ventura County The Ventura County APCD is undertaking the effort to re-examine the six groups of TCMs contained in the 1991 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP). These include ridesharing strategies,non-motorized strategies, traffic-flow improvements, land-use strategies, transit, and clean fuels. Since June of 1992, the Ventura County APCD has been holding meetings of its TCM Working Group to develop TCM options. Significant effort has been undertaken to provide all participants in the process with an understanding of both the state and federal requirements, prepare TCM issue papers, identify potential strategies and implementation actions, identify sources of funding for TCM implementation, describe legally enforceable mechanisms, obtain commitments to implement TCM actions, and integrate Congestion Management Program (CMP) processes and programs to receive air quality credit. Mutually reinforcing actions of Rule 210 (Employee Commute Option) and the CMP are also identified. Quantification of potential TCM actions has also been a key work effort by APCD staff. Southeast Desert Air Basin - desert portions of San Bernardino County In the Mojave Desert Air Quality Management District portion of the SEDAB, the effort to develop and implement TCM has focused on implementing the 10 measures amended into the 1991 AQMP. Rule 1701 helps provide a foundation for much of the AQMD's current TCM framework. In response to California Air Resources Board (CARB) comments on its 1991 Air Quality Attainment Plan and information from its newly reformed board, staff at the Mohave Desert AQMD are reexamining the area's attainment strategy, including TCMs. Efforts to date have focused on attempting to better identify what proportion of the emission and traffic problem are within the Mohave Desert AQMD's sphere of regulatory influence and attempting to identify appropriate strategies. Southeast Desert Air Basin - Coachella Valley As noted in Appendix lI-A of the 1991 AQMP for the SCAB, the SCAQMD shares responsibility with the California ARB for the Coachella Valley portion of SEDAB. The SCAQMD is primarily responsible for stationary source controls while California ARB's responsibility lies with on-road vehicle emissions and some consumer products. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element 0 December, 1993 Page 11-7 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure ;TCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT The primary pollutant being addressed locally in the Coachella Valley through the mobile source reduction strategies is PM10. While ozone standards are also exceeded, reductions in ozone precursors from the implementation of TCMs are seen as secondary benefits from the implementation of congestion relief and demand management measures. Substantial effort has been devoted by the Coachella Valley Association of Governments (CVAG) to developing a Transportation Demand Management (TDM) plan, which can serve as a framework, in conjunction with the facilities needed within the subregion, for the development and preparation of specific TCM strategies. Appropriate non-commute-and commute-trip reduction strategies are being examined. Local government efforts in Coachella Valley have been coordinated through CVAG. While it is unclear to what extent TCMs could be used to mitigate air quality versus congestion impacts, this effort continues to evolve. One key focal area being examined is more closely linking CMP monitoring and mitigation programs with air quality programs. Southeast Desert Air Basin - Northern Los Angeles County .Appendix II-A of the 1991 AQMP for the SCAB describes that the SCAQMD shares responsibility with California ARB for the Antelope Valley portion of SEDAB. The SCAQMD is primarily responsible for stationary source controls while California ARB's responsibility lies with on-road vehicle emissions and some consumer products. The North Los Angeles County subregion has identified several key areas in which the planning and implementation of mobility strategies has occurred that could also potentially be credited as TCMs. These are implementation of the county CMP, implementation of deficiency plan strategies in areas in which deficiencies are identified, SCAQMD's Regulation XV program, and local California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) review, mitigation requirements, and monitoring. South Coast Air Basin Section 40460(b) of the State Health and Safety Code states that SCAG is responsible for the development of the TCMs to be included in the AQMP for the SCAB. Subregional Input into the South Coast Air Basin TCMs In concert with the committee structure described above, the performance-based approach to TCMs called for by subregions in the 1992 Carbon Monoxide Plan has been used to assess how TCMs could be refined for the 1994 AQMP. This process was intended to continue the evolution from strict "command and control" implementation of TCM actions to a more performance-oriented approach to TCM development and implementation. Control Measure FC-4, "Additional Vehicle Miles SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 11-8 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT Traveled/Vehicle Trip (VMT/VT) Reduction Strategies" in the 1992 Carbon Monoxide Plan offered an interim stepping stone in the development of a performance-based approach. Through provision of subregional performance targets, use of quantification methodologies, and reporting of results, local governments and subregions have been able to more clearly identify what they can more realistically expect from the implementation of different types of TCM actions. More readily identified as a result of this effort are actions that subregional members are taking; local government actions they would like to take and receive credit for mobility, but for which a barrier to implementation or taking air quality credit exists; and actions that are not supported under existing circumstances. Information provided by subregions have offered recommendations on various types of transportation strategies that should be contained in the RME. These are reflected in the individual chapters. On a broader basis, however, subregions have offered several suggestions on how to approach the framework for TCM development and implementation, which are summarized in Table 11-4. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 11-9 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 11-4 SUBREGIONAL TCM RECOMMENDATIONS TCM RECOMMENDATIONS SUBREGION Coordinate transportation network Arroyo Verdugo improvements with land use decisions Western Riverside COG (and other specific characteristics) Ensure that expectations for TCMs are City of Los Angeles realistic, technically sound and/or Westside Cities clearly and appropriately establish South Bay Cities Association specific role and responsibilities Ensure that credit be given for City of Los Angeles transportation and other local government actions which have positive air quality benefits Support intensified/mixed land uses as SELAC part of the transportation solution for Western Riverside COG local governments who choose to implement these alternatives Explore the use of market-based trip SELAC reduction incentives/disincentives City of Brea Riverside County Transportation Commission South Bay Cities Association Support policies that further new SELAC technologies, use of alternative fuels South Bay Cities Association and/or zero-emission vehicles Riverside County Transportation Commission Provide maximum flexibility in the City of Brea implementation of TCMs Western Riverside COG More closely coordinate funding South Bay Cities Association levels/availability and TCM Western Riverside COG implementation expectations TCM and CMP/congestion relief City of Santa Clarita implementation should be coordinated Western Riverside COG Arroyo Verdugo Structure TCMs to facilitate tracking Western Riverside COG and monitoring 1 11 In the summer of 1993, a joint SCAG/SCAQMD TCM Policy Committee was formed to consider this information, recommend TCM refinesrents and assist in development of implementation strategies in the SCAB with SCAG and the SCAQMD. The committee comprises elected officials from each of the subregions in the SCAB, the four-county transportation commissions, the SCAQMD, and SCAG. A companion TCM Technical Advisory Group (TAG) also includes representatives from business, environmental interests, and Commuter Transportation services to provide staff input to the Policy Committee. This committee structure replaced the TCM Working Group formerly established by the SCAQMD. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 11-10 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT During the monthly meetings of the Policy Committee and the bi-weekly meetings of the TCM TAG, discussions have ranged from what the region can realistically expect from the implementation of TCMs to how technology can be advanced to provide significantly lower-emitting vehicles. Initial recommendations on TCM strategies to be included in the AQMP are anticipated in December 1993. This information will then be used by the SCAQMD to assess the level of emission reductions that would be required within the region overall to attain the ambient air quality standards. When the RCP is adopted, draft TCMs are to be conveyed to the SCAQMD for inclusion in the draft 1994 AQMP. Finalization of the TCMs is scheduled for summer 1994 when SCAG adopts the local government measures and TCMs to be included in the AQMP. While it is anticipated that the breadth of strategies contained in the RME will be more comprehensive than the TCMs ultimately agreed upon, to the extent that the TCMs are more ambitious, the RME may need to be amended. Several approaches to the identification,grouping and implementation of TCM strategies are being discussed. One proposal identifies six groupings of potential TCM actions (education, capital improvements, design standards, employer trip reduction measures, technology-based measures, and direct trip reduction strategies), notes potentially responsible parties, and begins to develop a legally enforceable implementation framework. A second proposal focuses on the development of a single, holistic TCM in which each subregion would have a specific performance target. Implementation of the TCM strategy would rely on the formation of partnerships with regional, subregional, county, and local entities to identify regionally and locally appropriate TCM actions, as well as implement, monitor and administer the TCM program. Both approaches discuss the use of SCAQMD rule-making authority as a key legally enforceable mechanism. Additional areas of discussion include how the CMP and TCMs can be more closely integrated into a single program that can be implemented by local governments. Integration of market incentive approaches to the implementation of TCMs, structuring of TCMs to encourage mobile source technological advancements, and delineating appropriate administrative and monitoring processes are also being addressed. Overall, the Committee structure is intended to provide the maximum degree of flexibility in identifying which strategies and actions are believed to be the most appropriate for implementation for mobility and air quality purposes. This approach is also intended to recognize common interests of neighboring communities in preparing compatible options for TCM implementation, and be sensitive to important SCAG• Regional Mobilipy Element • December, 1993 Page 11-11 • Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMEAT differences in available infrastructure, transportation services, land uses, and travel patterns in a diverse region. Regional Task Forces In addition to the efforts for specific non-attainment areas, SCAG has formed two task forces composed of local elected officials—an Advanced Transportation Technologies Task Force and a Market Incentive Task Force. Each task force is charged with preparing options to be considered for the respective issue areas and making recommendations for inclusion in the RME. RECOMMENDED TCM PROGRAM FOR THE SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN While specific recommendations are forthcoming through the TCM :Policy Committee process, initial indications are that the following areas will be emphasized in a comprehensive mobile source emission reduction strategy. Technology: Provides innovative means to advance technological means of reducing vehicular emissions are likely to be an important cornerstone of the strategy. Market-Incentives (MI)/Pricing: Such strategies could be used to either enhance/substitute for TCM actions. Market Incentives have the potential to also fund needed transportation improvements within the region beyond those funds currently identified as reasonably available. A more comprehensive discussion of such measures is contained in Chapter 4, TDM. Mobility Improvements: Closer coordination and integration of air quality and congestion relief measures through the CMP and deficiency plan process is likely to be proposed. A single program that targets similar travel markets and serves both air quality and mobility purposes could hold promise. The role and stringency of regulatory actions will be further developed. Non-Auto TCMs: In addition to efforts to achieve emission reductions from vehicles, the South Coast Air Basin has also included strategies to reduce emissions from planes and trains. The roles and specific responsibilities of various agencies involved in implementing these TCMs are still being debated. • Regional Railroad Emissions Control Measure: The Railroad Emissions Control Measure from the 1989/91 South Coast Air Plan is being refined for the 1994 Ozone SIP Submittal. This measure is focuses on railroad operations in the South Coast Air Basin, including freight, commuter, and intercity passenger SCAG • Regional Mobilith' Element • December, 1993 Page 11-12 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT trains. It could have implications on the surrounding air basin as well. The intent is to reduce oxides of nitrogen from diesel- - electric locomotives. Key concerns include: ensuring that adverse modal diversion from trains to trucks does not occur; the development of a comprehensive financing plan; and the provision of a backstop measure. The decision process for establishing control methods needed to achieve a substantially greater reduction in 2010 emissions is as follows. A Regional Railroad Air Quality Emission Reduction Program has been established, with a Policy Board and five Standing Committees: the Locomotive Propulsion Systems, Finance, Legal, Consolidation, and Freight Movements Committees. In addition, an Emissions Reduction Target Subcommittee will finalize the emissions reduction target for 2010 (currently set at 90%). The previous Railroad Emissions Measure called for Railroad Electrification. The current form of the measure is technology- neutral, and calls for one or a combination of the following strategies to be used to lower locomotive emissions: clean diesel, SCR, cleaner fuels such as LNG used by gas engines or dual-fuel engines, electrification, and/or new locomotive power plants such as fuel cells. A series of studies and demonstration projects will be completed by the beginning of 1996, permitting comparisons between alternative control methods, including feasibility and time to commercialization, life-cycle costs, and funding/financial plans required for implementation. The Policy Board will refine the Railroad Emissions Reduction Measure as appropriate, by June 1996. • Aviation Transportation Control Measure: The respective = roles and responsibilities of the various agencies involved in implementing aviation Transportation Control Measures(TCM's) are still being debated. Currently, SCAG is developing ground access plans for all the air carrier airports, the SCAQMD is developing an indirect source rule that will be applied to these airports, and EPA is developing an airport control strategy pursuant to the Federal Implementation Plan (FIP). The exact division of responsibilities between these agencies in implementing aviation TCM's will be determined in the future. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element• December, 1993 Page 11-13 e - Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMEAT RECOMMENDED MONITORING/PROGRAM EVALUATION METHODOLOGY Monitoring of TCMs is important for three reasons. First, monitoring is a federal statutory requirement to ensure compliance with CAA and ISTEA. Second, monitoring can be used to assist with duplication of successful strategies for other jurisdictions by highlighting effective approaches and methods of implementation. Third, the implementation of standardized data collection methods for monitoring purposes will provide necessary information for the evaluation of mobile source emission reduction strategies' effectiveness. Although the most appropriate types of monitoring programs will depend on the TCMs that are ultimately adopted, several methods are available to monitor and evaluate TCM strategies: Regional Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring on a regional level can occur in two ways. First, overall indicators of travel demand, such as AVO, transit mode split, and non- motorized mode split can be monitored by periodic origin and destination surveys and by evaluating travel data gathered through the Census. Second, conformity reporting for the RTIP and the RME requires a current evaluation of local implementation efforts on a regionwide basis. Subregional Reporting Subregional organizations can serve as an important conduit for monitoring and evaluating demand management programs. Through this structure, local jurisdictions will be able to provide direction on the selection and implementation of appropriate monitoring mechanisms for their specific subregion. This structure could help to ensure consistency among local programs, permit comparisons of evaluation conclusions, and realize savings through the pooling of monitoring resources. Coordination with CMP Monitoring CMP statute requires that each county Congestion Management Agency (CMA) monitor local jurisdictions to determine if they are complying with CMP responsibilities. The CMP provides for a reporting process that should be closely integrated on the local level; each jurisdiction must ensure the implementation of TDM ordinance requirements. Existing methods may be used for monitoring compliance with development standards. Common monitoring methods available to local jurisdictions include the following: • Level of service (LOS) monitoring. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page I1-14 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT • Site monitoring prior to issuance of certificate of occupancy or business license. • Other building site reports/surveys which the local jurisdiction may deem appropriate. • CEQA mitigation monitoring. The monitoring system used by CMAs can provide a useful tool allow an assessment of how local jurisdictions are implementing actions described in the various air quality attainment plans. Additionally, the CMP-required trip-reduction/TDM ordinances and subsequent analysis of land-use/transportation implications provide an opportunity to refine and focus the scope and funding of control measure programs implemented at both the county, subregional, and local levels. The implications for regional mobility are important, for monitoring can be used to assess the effectiveness of TCM programs and serve as a mechanism for assessing progress toward performance goals. Relationship of Monitoring to the TCM Implementation Framework A key issue in TCM development is how to address the implementation of TCM-based actions that do not meet a strict interpretation of each of the TCM criteria. While local governments have and can be expected to continue to implement actions (typically demand management and land- use-based strategies) that have positive air quality impacts. Yet, the existing TCM implementation framework often does not lend itself to quantifying the effects of these actions because they are neither easily quantified nor typically implemented through a strict trip reduction ordinance process. One potential solution is to include such actions into "baseline" assumptions and monitor them to ensure that the assumed implementation levels do indeed occur. To provide for such an approach, efforts to develop a cooperative, iterative process to monitor, identify and initiate adjustments to a course of action are being explored and structured as a part of the TCM development processes in the region. ADDITIONAL TCM CONSIDERATIONS Federal Implementation Plans (FIPs) The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is in the process of developing FIPs for both the SCAB and Ventura County in response to separate court cases. While more information will become available in February 1994 when formal rulemaking is proposed,the presence of FIP action serves as a significant backdrop for the development of the 1994 AQMPs—and, thus, the TCMs—in both Ventura and South Coast. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 11-I5 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (TCM) Program DRAFT DOCUMENT The FIP also presents an opportunity to address sources that are under federal jurisdiction. These include trains,planes, trucks, ships, and some off-road vehicles. Several policy issues arise from the FIP. First, the proposed relationship between locally developed AQMPs and the FIPs for the respective areas is unclear; will the FIP build off (modularly) of the local AQMPs or allow locally developed measures to substitute for measures in the FIP? Second, have the options available to areas subject to the FIPs been clearly identified, particularly on the TCM strategy side, within the context of measures willing to be undertaken and have public acceptance for local action in a modular FIP versus those locally developed actions that could be supported for substitution for FIP actions? Contingency Measures Both the federal and state Clean Air Acts require that contingency measures be adopted in the event adopted control measures do not achieve interim goals or maintain adequate progress toward the attainment of standards. In the past, contingency measures have included TCMs and other strategies that were not considered to be feasible at the time of adoption of an attainment plan by the district boards and California ARB. Examples include increasing gas taxes, limits on vehicle registration, no-drive days and emission charges on vehicle use. Another approach for consideration in the region is the use of pricing. This approach could include charging for emissions through various means (e.g., dirty fuels fees, emission-related mileage fees, congestion charges, parking fees), which, in turn, would reduce the type of travel behavior that produces emissions, or cause a shift in demand away from higher-emitting vehicles toward the use of lower-emitting vehicles. Such "market-based" measures would likely require legislative action to be made enforceable. Transportation Control Measure Funding Funding for TCMs is available through a variety of sources. Perhaps most important are two categories of ISTEA funding: Surface Transportation Program (STP) and Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program (CMAQ). Funding through STP is the most flexible, allowing funds to be spent on the National Highway System (NHS) as well as other components of the regional transportation network. An a subset of the STP funds—Transportation Enhancement Activity funds—are available to facilitate non-motorized forms of travel. CMAQ, on the other hand, was established specifically to fund projects that will contribute to the attainment of national ambient air quality standards. CMAQ funds are to be distributed based on formulae that give priority to ozone and carbon monoxide non-attainment areas. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 11-16 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure (FCM) Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT In May, 1992, SCAG and the county transportation commissions agreed on a set of principles, which would guide the programming of STP and CMAQ funding, as shown in Table 11-5. TABLE 11-5 EXISTING PRINCIPLES FOR PROGRAMMING OF STP AND CMAQ FUNDS RELATED TO TCMS 1) Programming of STP and CMAQ funds shall be the primary responsibility of the respective county transportation commission, consistent with federal and state law, the RTP, and in conformance with the applicable Air Quality Management/Attainment Plan. r 2) Implementation of TCMs required by the Air Quality Management/Attainment Plans, shall be a high priority for expenditure of all STP and CMAQ funds. Cities and counties are eligible to utilize the STP and CMAQ funds for demand management and growth management TCMs and will be so advised. 3) The county transportation commissions have the responsibility either directly or through an agreement to document the implementation of TCMs. Funding for the implementation of specific types of TCM (e.g., transit, HOV lanes, rail construction, and traffic signalization) is available through a variety of state and local funding sources, including gas taxes, bonds, and local sales taxes. Additional funding sources include an increase in motor vehicle registration fees to $4. Local jurisdictions have also relied upon local development, parking and permit fees to help provide for traffic mitigation strategies—many of which qualify as TCMs. ISSUES IN NEED OF FURTHER STUDY Several issues remain outstanding with regard to TCM strategy refinement, obtaining commitments and implementing TCMs. These are the following: SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 11-17 Chapter Eleven • Regional Transportation Control Measure rTCM1 Programs DRAFT DOCUMENT • How can subregional members receive credit for transportation- based actions that have positive air quality benefits, but do not meet each of the criteria required to be classified as a TCM? 0 How can the programmatic framework for TCMs best be structured to sensitively address local constraints, capitalize on local opportunities and maximize flexibility of implementation while meeting state and federal requirements? • How can TCM implementation best be coordinated to take advantage of efforts being undertaken in response to other mobility and air quality programs (e.g., congestion management programs, including deficiency plans and CEQA mitigation requirements)? • How can appropriate performance levels best be established to serve as a guidepost that represents a level of ambition for TCM implementation beyond the status quo, yet are achievable without resorting to Draconian measures, which could adversely impact the economy? • How can more cooperative and coordinated relationships between EPA, ARB, Caltrans, SCAG, air pollution control/management districts, county transportation commissions, and subregions be promoted to improve both air quality and comprehensive regional planning, as well as facilitate the implementation of trip and VMT reduction strategies within the region? • How can funding for TCMs be expedited? • How can market-incentive/pricing strategies best be developed and implemented to reduce and/or eliminate the need for TCMs and regulations? • What types of locally supported programs can be developed in Ventura and the SCAB that could potentially serve to substitute for EPA FIP actions, particularly in the event that fees are proposed and the revenues generated are not returned to the region? SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 11-18 Z`171 REGIONAL ACTION PROGRAM SUMMARY INTRODUCTION This chapter briefly describes the recommended actions of the Regional Mobility Element. The tables of this chapter contain the action elements from the other chapters. For a full discussion of the individual tables, please see the text appearing in the chapter covering the subject of the table. The action program includes the Congestion Management Programs (CMPs) from the five counties that were found to be consistent and comparable with the adopted plan. The CMPs contained the components to meet the highway, level of service, transit, and transportation demand management standards. REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION DEMAND MANAGEMENT PROGRAM (TDM) TABLE 12-3 TDM: SHORT/LONG-RANGE PROGRAM (7/20 YEAR PROGRAM) TDM SCHEDULE POSSIBLE IMPLEMENTATION OPTIONS STRATEGIES/PROGRAMS 7 20 Implementing Implementor YR YR Action Non-Commute'Based Strategies- To Facilitate Use Of Alternative Modes Promote Access To And Within • • - Circulation master - County Activity Centers plan transportation - Pedestrian Malls - Station stops - Local government - Increase Bicycle/Pedestrian • • - Pedestrian overlay - Private developers Facilities • zones - Private businesses - Area-Wide Vanpool Program - Racks/lockers/ showers • Land-Use Strategies • • - Land-use - Local government TDM Demonstration Projects • - Regional/ local - State, Education and Promotion • - Regional/local - State, MPO, CTCs, Commute-Based Strategies- To Facilitate Use Of Alternative Modes SCAG • Regional Mobilhy Element • December 1993 Page 12-1 Chapter Twelve • Preliminan Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMEA7 TDM SCHEDULE POSSIBLE IMPLEMENTATION OPTIONS STRATEGIES/PROGRAMS 7 20 Implementing Implementor YR YR Action Ridematching • • - Reg XV, Rule 210, - Large employers - Employee Rideshare Rule 11 - Small businesses - Matching Program - Parking subsidies - TMAs/TMOs - Employer Rideshare - Transit fees - CTS - Incentives Ridesharing Support Facilities • • - Federal& State - Federal/State - HOV Lanes funding transportation - Parking Management • - Parking agencies - Carpool Preferential • management study - Local government - Parking - Preferential parking - TMAs/TMOs • ordinance - CTS - Congestion pricing Facilitate/Increase Transit • • - Area-wide master - CALTRANS Accessibility plan - CTCs - Long Range Transit - Integrated transit/ - Local government Improvements • feeder system - Park-and-Ride Facilities - Mixed land-use • Telecommunications • - Employer supported - Local government - Telecommuting Centers programs - Developers - Teleconferencing - Upgrade fiber- - Large employers - Telecommuting optics network - Teleservices - Regional teleconferencing network Employer Trip Reduction • • - Reg XV, Rules 210 - Large employers Programs & 11 CTCs& CTS - Regulation-Based • • - Parking subsidies - TMAs/TMOs - Market Incentive-Based • • - Transit subsidies - Vanpool Incentives and - Vanpool purchase - Programs • • incentives - Work-at-Home Local TDM Ordinance • • - Ordinances on a - Local&regional/ -Trip Reduction • local and regional subregional - Auto Use Restrictions • levels governments -Land-Use Strategies -Bicycle • -Parking • Integration of TDM Measures • - By Airbasins MPO into CEQA Mitigation Process - By subregions - District - Subregions SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-2 Chapter Twelve • Preliminary Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TDM SCHEDULE POSSIBLE IMPLEMENTATION OPTIONS _ STRATEGIES/PROGRAMS 7 20 Implementing Implementor YR YR Action Facilitation of Non-Traditional • • Area-wide master plan Local governments' Transit and Shuttle Services by: department of - TMAs/TMOs transportation - Communities CTCs neighborhoods Transportation Management • • - Create new - MPO Associations/ Organizations - Increase - Local government membership and service - Coordinate in marketing efforts r Provision of Bicycle/ Pedestrian 0 0 Area-wide master plan - CTCs Infrastructure - Design guidelines - Local government - Lanes/Paths - Parking as a - Private developers - Storage Facilities percentage of auto parking - On-site pedestrian walkways Alternative Work Schedules • Region-wide programs - Large employers, - Flextime both public& - Modified Work Schedule private TDM Demonstration Projects • - Locate funding - CALTRANS sources - CTCs - regular - TMAs/TMOs - innovative Park-and-Ride Lots • - Available land - CALTRANS close to transit CTCs - Area-wide master plan Market Based Strategies Direct Market Incentives • Area-wide programs - Federal, State, and local agencies Indirect Market Incentives • • Area-wide programs - Federal, State, and local agencies SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-3 Chapter Twelve • Preliminary,Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMEAT REGIONAL TRANSIT (BUS AND RAIL) PROGRAM TABLE 124(A) SHORT RANGE PROGRAM AGENCY(IES) ACTIONS DATE OF IMPLEMENTA TION LACTC/ Complete Metro Red Line 1993 SCRTD between LAUPT and Alvarado and initiate service LACTC/ Complete Metro Red Line 1996 LACMTA between Alvarado and Wilshire/Western and extend service to Western LACTC/ Complete Metro Red Line 1999 LACMTA between Alvarado and HollywoodNine and initiate s service between LAUPT and Hollywood LACTC/ Complete Metro Green Line from 1995 LACMTA Norwalk to El Segundo and initiate service LACMTA Build Metro Blue Line from 1998 LAUPT to Sierra Madre Villa in Pasadena and initiate service LACMTA Initiate short line service on the 2000 Blue Line from 7th and Flower in Los Angeles to Willow Street in North Long Beach LACMTA Initiate short line service on the 2000 Blue Line from LAUPT to Del Mar in the Pasadena CBD SCRRA Implement LA-Moorpark 1993 Metrolink line SCRRA Implement LA-Santa Clarita 1993 Metrolink line SCRRA Implement LA-San Bernardino 1993 Metrolink line SCRRA Implement LA-Riverside 1993 Metrolink line via UP/Ontario SCRRA Extend LA-San Juan Capistrano 1993 commute service to Oceanside and expand service with additional trains SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-4 Chapter Twelve • Preliminary Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMEA7 AGENCY(IES) ACTIONS DATE OF IMPLEMENTA TION SCRRA Implement LA-Riverside 1994 Metrolink line via ATSF/Fullerton SCRRA Implement San 1995 • Bernardino/Riverside to Fullerton/Irvine Metrolink line SCRRA Implement San Bernardino- 1995 Redlands Metrolink line SCRRA Implement Riverside-Hemet 1996 Metrolink line SCRRA Extend LA-Santa Clarita 1996 Metrolink line to Palmdale Lossan RCA, Continue Lossan Corridor 1995 SCRRA, improvement program, including Caltrans, track replacement,and track, SANDAG, signaling, grade crossing, and MTDB, station improvements NSDTDB Caltrans, Add a ninth and tenth San Diegan 1995 Amtrak round trip and acquire additional passenger cars to increase capacity of existing trains Lossan RCA, Implement necessary track, 1995 SCRRA, signaling, grade crossing,and Caltrans, station improvements on the LACTC, Southwest Corridor extension VCTC from LAUPT to Santa Barbara Caltrans, Add a third and a fourth San 1995 Amtrak Diegan round trip from LAUPT to Santa Barbara Caltrans Provide additional intercity station 1995 stops between LAUPT and Goleta SCRRA Add rcverse-peak and mid-day 1993 Metrolink service on LA to San Bernardino,Santa Clarita, and Moorpark lines LACMTA, Maintain existing bus services and 1993-2000 OCTA, VCTC, operations SanBAG, RCTC,transit providers SCAG• Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-5 Chapter Twelve • Preliminan Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 124(B) LONG RANGE BUS AND RAIL PROGRAM: AGENCY(IES) ACTIONS DATE OF IMPLEMENTA TION LACMTA Extend Metro Red Line from 2001 LAUPT to Boyle Heights LACMTA Extend Metro Red Line from 2001 Wilshire/Western to Pico/San Vicente LACMTA Extend Metro Red Line from 2001 Hollywood/Vine to North Hollywood LACMTA Extend Metro Red Line from 2002 North Hollywood to Sepulveda and initiate a third Metro Rail service from LAUPT to Sepulveda LACMTA Extend Metro Red Line from 2009 Boyle Heights to I-5/Atlantic LACMTA Extend Metro Red Line from 2009 Pico/San Vicente to Century City LACMTA Build Metro Green Line extension 2010 from I-105 alignment to Westchester,and operate a second route from Norwalk to Westchester LACMTA Extend the Metro Green Line 2010 south to Torrance LACMTA Extend the Metro Green Line east 2010 to the Norwalk Metrolink station on the Lossan Corridor LACMTA Complete Blue Line connector in 2006 LA CBD and initiate through service from Long Beach to East Pasadena LACMTA Extend the Pasadena light rail line 2010 east to Azusa LACMTA Construct the Glendale light rail 2010 line to North Glendale LACMTA Construct the Exposition light rail 2010 line to Santa Monica LACMTA, Maintain existing bus services and 2001-2010 OCTA, VCTC, operations SanBAG, RCTC,transit providers SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-6 . ,.. Chapter Twelve • Preliminan,Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMENT RECOMMENDED REGIONAL STREETS AND HIGHWAYS PROGRAM Table 12-5(A) shows the breakdown of total mixed-flow and HOV lane mileage by location. TABLE 12-5(A) TOTAL MIXED-FLOW & HOV LANE MILES ADDED BY COUNTY 1990 - 2010 County Total Mixed- %of HOV Lane %of Added Flow Lane Total Miles Total Lane Miles Miles by County Imperial 137 137 100 0 0 Los Angeles 1,031 223 21 808 78 Orange 800 601 75 199 25 Riverside 327 212 65 115 35 San Bernardino 390 269 69 121 31 Ventura 85 85 100 0 0 Total 2,770 1,527 55 1,243 45 Source: 1993 RME Constrained Project 1990-2010 Note: Includes new facilities,widening of existing facilities and toll roads. Expansions due to new facility construction and widening of existing facilities. Table 12-6(B)shows the breakdown of capacity expansions by improvement type. TABLE 12-5(B) PROPOSED CAPACITY EXPANSIONS BY IMPROVEMENT TYPE 1990 -2010 County Mixed-Flow pane miles) HOV(lane miles) Construction Additions to Total Construction Additions Total of New Existing ofNew to Esiatima Facilities Facilities Facilities Facilities Imperial 34 103 137 0 0 0 Los Angeles 28 195 223 28 780 808 Orange 466 135 601 146 53 199 Riverside 0 212 212 0 115 115 San 184 85 269 62 59 121 Bernardino Ventura 9 76 85 0 0 0 Total 721 806 1527 236 1007 1243 Source: 1993 RME Constrained Project SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 page 12-7 Chapter Twelve • Preliminary Regional Action Progrcan DRAFT DOCUMEA7 Long-range Freeway-Based HOV Expansion -- HOV expansion is recommended on portions of the Interstates 5, 10, 15, 215, and Route 101 beyond 2010. Transportation System Management System management improvements such as freeway ramp metering, installation of changeable message signs, and construction of park-and- ride lots along transit corridors are recommended. Local Streets and Roads Improvements The projects that specifically pertain to the local streets and roadways in the CMP CIPs are recommended as the local streets and roads improvements. Table 12-5(C) is a summary of the seven-year CIP projects of the 1992 CMPs by the type of improvements as related to both regional highways and streets, and to local streets only. SCAG 0 Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-8 Chapter Twelve • Preliminary Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMEI\T TABLE 12-5(C) SUMMARY OF CMP CIP PROJECTS COST OF IMPROVEMEN P COUNTY TYPE OF (million dollars) IMPROVEMENT Highways and Local Streets Only Local Streets Capacity Enhancement 178.0 8.9 LOS System Management 68.6 7.8 ANGELES Other 44.1 0.0 Capacity Enhancement 712.2 700.9 ORANGE System Management 511.4 260.3 Other 31.0 31.0 Capacity Enhancement 36.2 6.0 RIVERSIDE System Management 23.1 3.8 Other 12.0 7.6 Capacity Enhancement 1,682.7 278.7 SAN System Management 621.2 522.2 BERNARDINO Other 90.0 86.1 Capacity Enhancement 57.0 6.0 VENI'URA System Management 249.5 3.8 Other 0.0 7.6 Capacity Enhancement 2,666.0 1,000.5 SUB-TOTAL System Management 1,474.0 797.9 Other 177.0 132.3 TOTAL $4,317.0 51,930.7 Sources: 1. San Bernardino Association of Governments,Congestion Management Program for San Bernardino Comity,November 1992 2.Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority,CaogestionMauagemeat. Program for Los Angeles County,December 1992 3.Riverside County Transportation Commission,Congestion Management Program for Riverside County,December 1992 4. Orange County Transportation Authority, Congestion Management Program for Orange County,December 1992 5. Ventura County Transportation Commission,Congestion Management Program for Ventura County,December 1992 SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-9 Chapter Twelve • Preliminary Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMENT Arterial HOV Candidate Corridors Nine potential arterial HOV candidate corridors have been identified for the purposes of modeling and to determine their potential in achieving mobility objectives. 1. Olive Street: from Olympic Boulevard to Fourth Street. 2. Hill Street: from Olympic Boulevard to Temple Street. 3. Broadway: from Olympic Boulevard to Temple Street. 4. Vermont Avenue: from Exposition to Santa Monica Boulevard. 5. Santa Monica Boulevard: from Sepulveda to Century City. 6. Century Boulevard: from Interstate 405 to LAX. 7. La Tijera/Sepulveda Boulevards: from Interstate 405 to LAX. 8. Colorado Boulevard: through Eagle Rock (Tri-Cities Corridor). 9. In corridors that access Metrorail stations where high volumes of buses occur (Alvarado Street, Ventura Boulevard, etc.). POTENTIAL SMART CORRIDORS Los Angeles and Orange County potential Smart Streets Corridors are identified for the purpose of providing cost effective methods in reducing congestion. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element 0 December 1993 Page 12-10 Chapter Twelve • Preliminan,Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUb9EA7 TABLE 12-5(D) LOS ANGELES COUNTY POTENTIAL SMART STREET CORRIDORS ROUTE DESCRIPTION Downtown L.A. Ring I-5,I-10,101, & I-110 5 Between 1-605 & Rte. 60 5 Between Rte 110 & Rte. 134 10 Between I-5 and I-605 60 Between I-5 & I-605 60 Between I-605 and Rte. 71 91 Between I-10 & Beach Blvd. 101 Between I-110 & Rte. 134 101 Between Valley Circle Blvd & I-5 110 Between 1-405 & I-10 210 Between Rte. 134 & Rte. 30 405 Between I-605 & I-110 405 Between I-110 & I-10 405 Between I-10 & 101 405 Between 101 & 1-5 605 Between I-405 & I-5 605 Between I-5 & I-10 Source: Statewide Smart Corridor Study SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-11 Chapter Twelve • Preliminary Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMENT TABLE 12-5(E) ORANGE COUNTY POTENTIAL SMART STREET CORRIDORS ROUTE DESCRIPTION 22 I-405 to Rte. 55 55 I-405 to Rte. 91 57 I-5 to Rte. 90 91 Rte. 91 Imperial Hwy to Beach Blvd. 405 Rte.22 to I-5 Source: Statewide Smart Corridor Study Safety and Accident/Incident Management Caltrans, the county transportation commissions and the California Highway Patrol (CHP) currently employ various incident management programs. Mechanisms that allow for recovering the costs of incident/accident clean-up through incentive fees should also be examined. A study should be done to quantify and evaluate the impacts of accidents and incidents on the region's roadways. Mechanisms that address the accident/incident cost recovery should be investigated for possible implementation. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-12 nd- Chapter Twelve • Preliminary Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMENT REGIONAL NON-MOTORIZED TRANSPORTATION PROGRAM TABLE 12-6 RECOMMENDED ACTION PROGRAM NMT STRATEGIES/ACTIONS SCHEDULE POSSIBLE IMPLEMENTATION OPTIONS 7 20 Implementing Action Implementor YR YR IMPROVED INFRASTRUCTURE BICYCLE AND PEDESTRIAN • • - Circulation Element - Local Government PATHWAYS AND AREAS - Zoning Ordinances - Local CTC e.g., - Exactions/ - State (Caltrans, - Class 1, 11, III Bicycle Developer fees Parks Department) Facilities - CMP TDM Program - Private Developer - Sidewalks and Pathways - ISTEA - Bicycle and Pedestrian Bridge Transportation Access Enhancement Activities BICYCLE AND PEDESTRIAN • • - Pedestrian Overlay - Local Government PATHWAY AMENITIES Zone - Local CTC e.g., - Exactions/ - Private Developer - Lighting Developer fees - Maintenance of Pathways - Zoning Ordinances (i.e., Removing debris, overhanging plants, etc.) - Bicycle and Pedestrian- _ Friendly Rail Road Crossings BICYCLE- AND • • - Bicycle Plans - Local Government PEDESTRIAN-FRIENDLY - Pedestrian Programs STREET ENGINEERING e.g., - Audible Street Crossing Signals - Bicycle Sensitive Loop Detectors - Bicycle-Friendly Gutter Grates BICYCLE RACKS AND • • - Local Government - Local Government LOCKERS Ordinance - Local CTC e.g., - CMP TDM Bicycle - Private Developer Bicycle Racks/Lockers at Locker Program - Caltrans Activity Areas, Recreational _ ISTEA Areas, Schools, Government Transportation Buildings,Transit Stops and Enhancement Stations Activities Program SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-13 z� Chapter Twelve • Preliminary Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMENT NMT STRATEGIES/ACTIONS SCHEDULE POSSIBLE IMPLEMENTATION OPTIONS 7 20 Implementing Action Implementor YR YR BICYCLE AND PEDESTRIAN • - Developer Transit Operator ACCESS TO TRANSIT Fees/Exactions - Local Government e.g., - ISTEA - Local CTCs - Bus Shelters and Benches at Transportation - Private Developer Stops Enhancement - Paved Access to and at Activities Transit Stops - Equipment for Bicycles on Bus PROMOTION/EDUCATION EMPLOYER BICYCLE • - Regulation XV - Local Government COMMUTE PROGRAM program - Local CTC e.g., - CMP TDM Program - Employer - Showers and Lockers for - Local Govt. Trip -TMA Bicyclists and Pedestrians Reduction - Bicycle Organization - - Loan Program for Purchasing Ordinance Bicycles and Bicycle Equipment PROMOTIONAL EFFORTS - Promotional - Local Government e.g., Programs - Local CTC - Bicycle or Pedestrian Events - Trip Reduction -MPO - Maps/Brochures Programs - Air District - Caltrans - Bicycle Organization -TMA SAFETY TRAINING • • - County-wide -Elementary to High PROGRAM Bicycle/Safety School e.g., Education Program -Local CTC - Riding Skills -Bicycle Organization - Riding, Walking and Transit Awareness for Children - Bicycle Maintenance and Equipment:Usage RESEARCH/DATA • • - CMP TDM Program -Local CTC COLLECTION AND -SCAG DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS MOTORIST TRAINING • - SCAG and Bicycle - DMV (Awareness of Bicyclists and Organizations work Pedestrians and their rights) with DMV to enhance motorist awareness ENFORCEMENT SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-14 Chapter Twelve • Preliminan•Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMENT NMT STRATEGIES/ACTIONS SCHEDULE POSSIBLE IMPLEMENTATION - OPTIONS 7 20 Implementing Action Implementor YR YR Increased Enforcement of • Increased Bicycle, - Local Govt., School Traffic Laws Protecting Foot Patrols and University Bicyclists and Pedestrians Police Dept. MTA Transit Police LAND USE/SITE DESIGNS INCORPORATE BICYCLE • • - General Plans - Local Government AND PEDESTRIAN - Zoning Ordinances FRIENDLY DESIGN AND ACCESS FEATURES IN LAND USE AND SITE DESIGN REQUIREMENTS e.g., - Bicycle Parking Requirements - Sidewalk Requirements - Shower and Locker Requirements SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December 1993 Page 12-15 • Chapter Twelve • Preliminary Regional Action Program DR4FT DOCUA1E117 REGIONAL GOODS MOVEMENT ACTION PROGRAM' TABLE 12-7(A) SHORT-RANGE GOODS MOVEMENT ACTION PROGRAMS AGENCY(IES) ACTIONS DATE OF IMPLEMENTATION Port of Improvements in Berths 227- 1994-1996 Los Angeles 230, 212-215, 200, 174-181, 161, 142-147, 127-131 Piers 300, 400, and Pier J extension Yards--Brighton Beach, A Street Terminal Island Container Facility Access improvements—B Street realignment, Badger Avenue bridge Port of On-Dock Rail facility--Maersk 1993 Long Beach Pacific Ltd Grade Separations--Anaheim 1994-1996 Street, Pico Avenue, Harbor Plaza, Pier G, Pier J Access--Pico Avenue 1995-1996 realignment, I-710 connectors, Ocean Blvd. resurfacing and widening, Desmond Bridge widening Double tracking the Harbor 1996 lead track Port of Refrigerated terminal 1993/1994 Hueneme ' passage of the ISTEA of 1991 resulted in the funding for projects benefitting goods rnovetnent activities in the SCAG region. These projects are funded out of Urban Access and Mobility,Innovative,and Intermodal categories,and have been incorporated by reference into the 1993 RME. SCAG • Regional Mobiliny Element 0 December 1993 Page 12-16 Chapter Twelve • Preliminan Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMEA7 AGENCY(IES) ACTIONS DATE OF IMPLEMENTATION Caltrans Continue the real-time 1995 freeway conditions information system and expand the system to include a real-time continuous traffic information broadcast system to alert commercial vehicles of traffic congestion locations, accidents, etc. Caltrans, Port of Extension of Rice Road to 1994 Hueneme, Local increase access to the port. Government Caltrans, Develop computerized 1995 Trucking navigation and dispatching industry systems. Trucking Increased night time shipping 1995 industry, local governments LAX Redevelopment of existing 1994 cargo sites Ontario Airport Construction of additional 1995 (LA Dept. of warehouse space Airports) Ontario Airport Cargo facility expansion 1995 SCAG, Study the future role of air 1994-1995 cargo in the regional economy Caltrans, Conduct a study to examine 1995 Trucking the feasibility of a pricing Industry system to reduce accidents and associated congestion on the freeways SCAG, Evaluate the congestion and 1995 Railroads air quality impacts of queued traffic at the 3000+ at-grade crossings in the region SCAG, Study the economic feasibility 1995 Railroads of the phased elimination of at-grade crossings at high traffic flow arterials SCAG Conduct the Railroad 1994 Consolidation Study SCAG • Regional MobilirY Element • December 1993 Page 12-17 0 Chapter Twelve • Preluninar) Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMENT AGENCY(IES) ACTIONS DATE OF i IMPLEMENTATION SCAG Complete the Intermodal 1995 Goods Movement Study SLAG, Study the impacts of air cargo 1994 SANDAG from San Diego and Northern Mexico on SCAG region roads and airports Caltrans, local Encourage voluntary 1996 governments, reductions in peak period trucking industry travel by large trucks Caltrans, local Prioritize system connectivity 1995 governments and gap closure projects TABLE 12-7(B) LONG-RANGE GOODS MOVEMENT PROGRAMS Agency(ies) Actions Date of Implementation Port of Long Beach On-dock rail facilities—California 2010 United Terminal, Hanjin Container Terminal, Pacific Container Terminal, Sealand Services, Inc. Ports of Long Beach 2020 Plan 2020 and Los Angeles Port of Los Angeles Pier 300 2010 ACTA Completion of the Alameda 2000 Corridor Local governments Incorporate parking and off-street 2000 delivery areas and other needs of goods movement in land use planning SCAG, Airports, Examine the feasibility of converting 2000 FAA, local abandoned military facilities for air governments cargo handling SCAG • Regional Mobili,), Element • December 1993 Page 12-18 Chapter Twelve • Preliminan Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUMENT REGIONAL AVIATION SYSTEM PROGRAM TABLE 12-8(A) SHORT RANGE AVIATION PROGRAM AGENCY() ACTIONS DATE OF IMPLE& N'TATION SCAG Complete Commercial Airport 1993 Capacity Study and the Military Airbase Contingency Study. SCAG Complete NAWS Point Mugu 1994 Joint-Use Feasibility Study SCAG/AUWG Complete airspace analysis of LA 1993-1994 Basin SCAG/FAA Include major airport projects in 1993-1994 the RME R77P and make air quality conformity finding. At present,this includes the torm.' mleeation all airport projecu. Local Develop commercial capacity at joint- 1994-2000 Government/ use military airbases and closed Military/FAA military sirbases. SCAG/Local Conduct airport ground access studies 1993-1996 Government and modelling in conformance with the State law. CALTRANS Implement transportation infrastructure 1993-1999 projects as contained in the SCAG RTIP and the State STEP. SCAG/ Conduct study of impacts of air cargo 1994-1995 SANDAG generated from San Diego and northern Mexico on SCAG region airports and highway networks. SCAG Conduct General Aviation System 1993-1994 Study SCAG Conduct studies to develop Aviation 1994-1997 Strategic Element TABLE 12-8(B) LONG RANGE AVIATION PROGRAM AGENCY(IES) ACTIONS DATE OF IMPLEMENTATION Local Implement capacity enhancements 2001-2010 Government at existing commercial airports and mitigate impacts. SCAG • Regional Mobilin• Element • December 1993 Page 12-19 0 Chapter Twelve • Preliminary Regional Action Program DRAFT DOCUAfEnT AGENCY(MS) ACTIONS DATE OF IMPLEMENTATION Local Implement commercial capacity at 2001 2010 Government joint-use and closed military airbases CALTRANS/ Implement multi-modal and inter- 2001-2010 Local modal airport ground access Government improvement at commercial and joint-use airports. LONG RANGE CORRIDORS TABLE 12-9(A) SHORT RANGE: AGENCY(IES) ACTIONS DATE OF IMPLEMENTATION SCAG Complete Inland Empire Long Fall 1993 Range Corridor Study TABLE 12-9(B) LONG RANGE: AGENCY(IES) ACTIONS DATE OF IMPLEMENTATION SCAG Complete post 2010 corridor 2002 study SCAG • Regional Mobility• Element • December 1993 Page 12-20 6'_'.`r-:A=_1, I T]E,IF� T="7,-:_1� SOCIOECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS INTRODUCTION The Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG)is required by federal law to evaluate and analyze regional effects of transportation decisions. Specifically,the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991 directs SCAG as the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) to examine social and economic effects of regional transportation decisions. Various other federal legislation such as Title VI of the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), require that no person shall be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any program or activity receiving federal financial assistance. Quality of life for all people in the SCAG region, and particularly for the elderly, the disabled, the low-income, and other disadvantaged people is integrally linked to successful implementation of the region's transportation system. Consistent with federal legislation, a primary goal of the 1993 Regional Mobility Element (RME) is to make the region accessible to everyone. This chapter will analyze how and to what degree regional mobility goals are impacting disadvantaged and low-income populations. POPULATION AND TRIP CHARACTERISTICS Approximately 15 million people currently live in the SCAG region. SCAG's forecast indicates this number will rise to 20.5 million by the year 2010. The majority of the population is now composed of ethnic minorities. (see Figure 13-1) These demographic trends will continue beyond the 2010 planning period. SCAG • Regional Mobilin, Element • December, 1993 Page 13-1 Chapter Thirteen • Socioeconomic Implications DRAFT DOCUMENT FIGURE 13-1 RACE/ETHNIC ORIGIN 1980& 1990 1980 1990 7A% 9.0% '4.2% !.2% 4io 4.2%/ 33.1% �b W A+ 40+ ® err Source: 1980 and 19%U.S. Census Data SELECTED MOBILITY TRENDS The 15 million people in the SCAG region own 10 million motor vehicles (see Figure 13-2). Paradoxically, but not unexpectedly, over the years, growth in automobile ownership has given rise to increased peak- hour traffic congestion and significantly degraded mobility for the region. Between 1970 and 1990 the number of licensed drivers in the region increased from 6 million to 9.5 million, a 58 percent increase. People aged 65 or older have increased their share of licensed drivers by 130 percent. For the future, the number of licensed drivers will increase with the 5-to-17 age group as well as with the "baby boomers" (35-44 age group). People who have purchased cars and/or secured drivers licenses can be expected to be a population largely or frequently dependent on automobiles for mobility. Non-work trips represent 77 percent of the region's daily trip total. Even during the peak period, non-work trips account for 68 percent of all trips. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 13-2 Chapter Thirteen • Socioeconomic ILnplications DRAFT DOCUMENT FIGURE 13-2 POPULATION, VEHICLES & DRIVERS In the SCAG Reglon Milli- 16.0001 16,000; l HICLE& 14,000 1 v 19.000 J DRIVERS 12,000� ..•. POPULATION 11.000 •, 10.000 •' 6.000{ r 6.000 6.000 4.000 1670 1676 1660 1666 1660 Source: State of California, Dept. of Motor Vehicles. U.S. Census Bureau Non-work trips comprise three categories: family and personal business trips, social and recreational trips, and shopping trips. The average travel times for work and non-work trips were 22 and 14 minutes, respectively. FIGURE 13-3 DAILY TRIP GENERATION By Travel Period OM-Peek Period Peak Period LpwW (83%) ® Non-work Trips (68%) \ 1 (17%) • work Trips _ (32%) TOW (77%) Source: 1990 NPTS(Los Angeles, Anaheim, Riverside CMSA; represents all counties in SCAG Region except Imperial) SCAG • Regional Mobilin- Element • December, 1993 Page 13-3 Chapter Thirteen • Socioeconomic Implications DRAFT DOCUMENT DISADVANTAGED AND LOW-INCOME POPULATIONS Overview For most people, a transportation problem may be a work trip that is too long or too congested. But for disadvantaged populations, the problem can be the inability to find employment because timely and reliable v public transit is not readily available. This section will identify the mode of travel most used by the specified populations. a Elderly According to the 1990 Census, approximately 1.4 million elderly (those people aged 65 and over) live in the SCAG region. Seniors make up 9.5 percent of the region's population and will grow another 54 percent by the year 2010. A variety of social and demographic changes will accompany the aging of the population. People will live longer so the need for specialized care and other services will increase. These demographic changes will also raise significant questions about accessible transportation to meet the mobility needs of the elderly. The majority of trips made by the elderly are not into or out of the Central Business District (CBD) but rather between two suburban locations. Transit systems that serve the suburbs generally carry passengers toward the central city and not to other suburban locations where medical and social services may be located. Consequently, more than 90 percent of trips made by the elderly, nationwide, are made by automobile, and reliance on the private vehicle is growing. The elderly drive fewer miles than do the rest of the population, but their mileage will likely increase in the future for the following reasons: • Based on Department of Motor Vehicles data, the number and proportion of the elderly holding driver's licenses has been increasing for the past 10 years. During this period elderly people with driver's licenses have increased 56 percent. • Most of the elderly live in urban areas, but their numbers in the low-density suburbs where reliance on the automobile is both a convenience and a necessity, is increasing. The elderly face a number of obstacles that discourage mode shift from automobile dependency. First is the very serious concern of the elderly with personal security. Real or imagined, these fears have a great impact on transportation decisions made by elderly people. Additionally, studies have shown that most of the elderly cannot easily change their current car trips into walking trips because trip destination are widely scattered throughout a community. However, these same SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 13-4 Chapter Thirteen • Socioeconomic Implications DRAFT DOCUMENT ` studies show that mass transit could effectively be substituted for some automobile trips if transit services were conveniently available within four blocks of a seniors residence. Disabled In 1990, 802,331 disabled people with a mobility limitation lived in the region. Of the total disabled population, 28 percent were elderly. As the disabled population parallels increases in the elderly population,there will be new demands for special transportation services that are easily accessible, reliable, and more importantly—affordable. The case for specialized service for the disabled rests on three points. First, not every community, urban or rural, has local public transit service. Second, public transportation is still largely designed to accommodate home-to-work trips but trips by the disabled tend to be non-work related. Further, a substantial number of non-work trips are made in off-peak hours (see Figure 13-3) when there are fewer buses on the road and schedules are different. Third, in bad weather passengers in wheelchairs have difficulty maneuvering from home to inconveniently located bus stops, which may not have shelters. The mode choice for disabled people depends on the severity of their disability. People who are visually impaired and people who have minor physical disabilities are oriented toward the regular bus and automobile- passenger modes in terms of preference and use. This group travels more frequently and for more purposes (i.e., medical trips, shopping, personal pleasure trips). People with severe physical disabilities are oriented toward para-transit or demand-responsive service, which offer door-to-door service, assistance on and off the vehicle, convenience, comfort, and more personalized service. Women According to the 1990 Census, there were 7.3 million women in the SCAG region, accounting for 50 percent of the region's population. Five percent of the total female population were female-headed households with children under the age of 17. Nationwide, according to the 1990 National Personal Travel Survey (NPTS), from 1983 to 1990, travel by women increased greatly, from 6,382 annual miles per female driver in 1983 to 9,528 miles in 1990—a 49 percentage change. This increase was due, partially, to the increase in women joining the work force. The number of trips taken by women for family and personal business also grew by 37 percent for the same period. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 13-5 Chapter Thirteen • Socioeconomic Implications DRAFT DOCUMENT For the expanding population of working mothers, the location of child- care facilities plays a major role in the transportation mode women choose. If a child-care facility is beyond walking distance of the home, it is very likely that an auto, if available, will be used to drive the child to the care facility. It follows that the balance of the commute trip will be by car as well. In the case of older children, school location relative to home or work site can also impact the mode choice of a working parent. This is particularly the case where schools are not within walking distance or are not serviced by a school bus or public transportation. As with seniors, safety and concern for personal bodily harm are another major factor in the choice of a transportation mode. Specific times, places, and even modes of transportation may be considered off-limits by women for fear of personal violence. Youth Approximately 2.6 million school-age (ages 5-17) children live in the SCAG region. In the Los Angeles Unified School District alone (which represents the Los Angeles City and 16 other cities and communities), there are approximately 641,000 children enrolled in school for kindergarten through the 12th grade. Approximately 13 percent or 80,000 students take district-owned or contracted school buses and 11,000 take public transportation to school. This would mean that approximately 85 percent of the youth either walk to school, are driven by parents, or are driving themselves. Low-Income Households The 1990 Census defines poverty as a family of four with an annual income of less than $12,674. In 1989, there were 1.9 million people below the poverty level in the SCAG region. This was a 40 percent increase over 1979. Hispanics comprise one-third of the region's population and more than half of the Hispanic population have incomes below the poverty line. The African-American population, which constitutes 8 percent of the region's population, makes up 13 percent of the region's low-income families. Although it would seem that workers in low-income households would tend to rely more heavily on transit or carpooling, nationally, this is not the case. Data from the 1990 NPTS shows a substantial shift away from transit for work purposes by populations in poverty. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element •December, 1993 Page 13-6 Chapter Thirteen • Socioeconomic Implications DRAFT DOCUMENT According to the NPTS, approximately 60 percent of the low-income wage earners drive to work. This group also spends a great deal of time commuting between home and work. On a regional level, travel patterns examined for South-Central Los Angeles, where approximately 35 percent of the area population are African-American and 60 percent are Hispanic, 23 percent use transit. The remaining 65 percent use the automobile for the work commute. In another local example consistent with national trends, the Pico-Union District in Los Angeles, which is approximately an 8-square-mile community predominately populated by Hispanics (65 percent), 27 percent of the Hispanic population used public transportation to commute to work. Forty percent of the total households in this community were households without autos. SCAG • Regional Mobilin� Element • December, 1993 Page 13-7 C� 4 =L� 131L'�t. FOURTEEN: URBAN FORM AND MOBILITY INTRODUCTION Throughout the years, development in the SCAG region has been dispersed along the available freeway network. Traditional zoning laws that separate residential, commercial, and industrial land uses, have led to the spatial disconnection among different types of activities. These factors, among others, foster the ever-increasing dependence on the automobile as the main mode of transportation. The 1991 federal Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) stresses the integration of land-use policies and transportation programs. The legislation provides funding for transportation programs that are consistent with short-and long-range land use planning and puts new emphasis on transit, pedestrian, and bicycle facilities. BACKGROUND The jobs/housing balance policy proposed in the 1989 Growth Management Plan (GMP) was included in the 1989 Regional Mobility Plan (RMP) as a strategy to regain 1984 mobility levels. The aim of this land-use strategy was to relieve the pressures of population and job growth on the transportation system by achieving more balanced future developments, and thus, reducing increases in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) resulting from new development. It should be recognized that phasing and timing of development are as important as achieving the proper jobs/housing balance to yield the desired transportation and environmental benefits. Jobs/housing balance, as a Transportation Control Measure (TCM), has been riddled with implementation difficulties, and has been the subject of an ongoing regional debate. Nevertheless, the promotion of land-use development patterns, including jobs/housing balance, that enhance the efficiency of the transportation system remains an important goal of the Growth Management and Mobility elements. LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS SCAG commissioned a team of consultants, lead by the Urban Innovations Group, to investigate different theoretical urban form alternatives relative to regional mobility and air quality objectives. The team identified three cases of transit-oriented Urban Form and created a model for each case to estimate the modal split for transit. The analytical method consists of the following steps: 1) Estimate how many workers live in transit-oriented zone in 2010. 2) Estimate how SCAG a Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 1¢1 Chapter Fourteen • Urban Form & Mobilin DRAFT DOCUMEA7 many of these workers also have a job in a transit-oriented zone. 3) Estimate how many of these workers who both live and work in transit- oriented zone choose to use transit. 4) Add baseline transit use for those outside transit-oriented zones. 5) Compare to modal split goal necessary to achieve mobility and air quality goals.' The first case (Case A—Rail Station Concentrated Growth and Rail Emphasis) directs growth to occur in concentrated development within walking distance of existing and planned rail stations. The second case (Case B—Activity Center Concentrated Growth, and Rail and Express Bus Emphasis) directs growth to occur in concentrated development within walking distance of rail stations and in existing activity centers serviced by intra-center shuttles with express bus routes to other centers. The third case (Case C—Trendline Growth and Rail, Express Bus and Paratransit)implies trendline distributions of population and employment, and relies on a demand-responsive three-tiered transit system capable of servicing a large market. Analytical results show that, for each of the three cases, modal split for transit in the home-to-work travel market increases compared to trendline projections. However, concentrated growth by itself does not produce the modal split goal of 19 percent, by 2010, for all home-to-work trips established by the 1989 RMP. The estimated modal split for Case A falls in the 5-to-7 percent range and for case B in the 7-to-10 percent range. Case C yields an estimated modal split in the 15-to-25 percent range. This suggests that a multi- tiered transit system including intra-regional rail (e.g., Metrolink), inter- urban bus service, and an intra-urban Smart Shuttle Transit, has significant beneficial effects on mobility and air quality. This demand- responsive multi-occupant vehicle transportation system, and fine tuning multiple use neighborhood development, will retard private vehicle usage. The Smart Shuttle Transit is also beneficial in the non-home-to- work market, can reduce public expenditures and can create sustainable employment and economic development opportunities. In addition, a preliminary cost estimate revealed that the combined capital and operating costs were competitive in comparison to intra-urban rail transit. Study conclusions emphasize the importance of land-use decisions that complement proposed investments in the Metropolitan Transportation System (MTS). Concentrated development and mixing land uses throughout the region to increase proximity of housing to employment opportunities,.recreation,goods and services, will increase pedestrian and bicycle access and potentially result in VMT reduction due to local trip I For more detailed information on methodology and results of the Urban Form study,see the UIG August 9, 1994 report in the Growth Management Element appendix. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element 0 December, 1993 Page 14-2 Chapter Fourteen • Urban Form & MobiliA- DRAFT DOCUMENT containment and consolidation. Many motorized work- and non-work- related trips may be eliminated and replaced by walking or cycling.= The effect of such measures on vehicle trips and VMT reductions are hard to model. Nevertheless, empirical evidence of the positive effects of land-use on transportation abound.' According to a study conducted by the California Air Resources Board, (ARB) mixed-use development and increased densities can reduce 4-to-11 percent of a region's vehicle trips and 20 to 50 percent of site-specific trips. T LAND USE AS A MOBILITY STRATEGY In addition to enhancing regional mobility, achieving clean air standards, and reducing energy consumption, a land-use component of the mobility strategy is expected to maximize access to the transportation system and options to choose among travel modes. Land-use decisions should also enhance economic development and help avoid social polarization. The land-use component of the mobility strategy is based on the premise that local jurisdictions are instrumental in the decision-making process regarding urban form and have the primary authority regarding land use decisions. The proposed strategy reflects the subregional and local input to the RME Discussion Draft and the Growth Management Element (GME). The general consensus emerging from subregional plans", comments, and recommendations received is that land-use policies should be part of a strategy to improve regional mobility. The preferred approach to meet mobility, air quality, and sustainable economic development is the small scale localized implementation of land-use measures. This does not necessitate redirecting future development regionwide, or massive concentration of new development along transit stations and transit corridors. Changes to existing zoning, general plan amendments, and specific plans = that encourage concentrated, mixed-use, transit- and pedestrian-oriented The Urban Form study was revised to address comments received at meetings of policy and technical advisory committees, and comments of SANBAG,MTA, NRDC,ARB, City of Brea,and City of Simi Valley. 3 Calthorpe Associates, "Transit Oriented Development Design Guidelines", 1992 for the City of San Diego. Holtzclaw/NRDC, "Explaining Urban Density and Transit Impacts on Auto Lase", 1990. Local Government Commission, "Land Use Strategies for Livable Places", 1992.Transit/Residential Access Center, 'Incentives for Trip reduction Through Location of Housing Near Rail Transit Stations", 1991.Air Resources Board, "CCAA Guidance for the Development of Indirect Source Control Programs", 1990. 4 This position reflects the growth management goals and poirciea in the Arroyo Verdugo,San Gabriel Valley,VCOG and WRCOG subregional plans,and comments and recommendations from Los Angeles City,CVAG,SANBAG,ARB NRDC,MTA,SCAQMD, California Environmental Associates,and city of Simi Valley. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 14-3 Chapter Fourteen • Urban Form & MobiliA, DRAFT DOCUMENT development, are tools that can be used by local jurisdictions to foster land-use policies, which, along with adequate Transportation Demand Management (TDM) programs and non-motorized infrastructure, can reduce environmental and economic costs of motorized trips. Local actions to affect site-specific patterns of development include allowing the combination of usually separated land uses within a single development; increasing development density along transit corridors and/or stations; clustering development to preserve open space; achieving better jobs/housing balance at the micro-scale, and a better match between the types of jobs and the price of housing. Such actions can be carried out through local jurisdictions' regulatory powers. Design standards improvement actions are another category that could affect urban form at the local level. These include the provision of physical features that encourage transit use, cut the need for cold starts, and encourage pedestrian and bicycle travel. Amenities such as bus shelters and bus pullouts to improve transit, physical improvements that support pedestrian traffic, the construction of bike lanes and provision of secure bike racks and parking arrangements that facilitate ride sharing can help achieve the vehicle trip reduction goals. Local land-use policies that foster mixed- and higher-density uses should target both work and non-work trips. It should also be recognized that localized changes in urban form are incremental, and their resulting impacts on mode split and congestion are long-range, not likely to be felt until after 2010. The highest priority should be assigned to projects and programs designed to maximize the effectiveness of alternatives to solo driving. SCAG, having the responsibility to determine transportation system conformity, could use this technique to ensure implementation of coordinated land-use and transportation policies. Communities that demonstrate a commitment to adopt zoning and approve development consistent with proposed transportation projects would be given priority in funding. The following policies in the Growth Management Element support goals and objectives of this proposed land-use component of the RME strategy: • The timing, financing and location of public facilities, utility systems, and transportation systems shall be used to implement the region's growth policies and to achieve the desired regional form. • SCAG shall encourage patterns of urban development and land uses that reduce costs on infrastructure construction and make better use of existing facilities. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 14-4 Chapter Fourteen • Urban Form & Mobility DRAFT DOCUMENT • SCAG shall support and encourage settlement patterns that contain a range of urban densities. • SCAG shall support provisions and incentives created by local jurisdictions to attract housing growth in job-rich subregions and job growth in housing-rich subregions. • SCAG shall encourage local jurisdictions' efforts to achieve a balance between the types of jobs they seek to attract and housing prices. • SCAG shall encourage existing or proposed local jurisdictions programs aimed at designing land uses that encourage the use of transit and thus, reduce the need for roadway expansion, reduce the number of auto trips and VMT, and create opportunities for residents to walk and bike. • SCAG shall encourage local jurisdictions plans that maximize the use of existing urbanized areas accessible to transit through infill and redevelopment. • SCAG shall support local plans to increase density of future development located at strategic points along the regional commuter rail, transit systems, and activity centers. • SCAG shall support local jurisdictions strategies to establish mixed-use clusters and other transit-oriented developments around transit stations and along transit corridors. • SCAG shall encourage developments in and around activity centers, transportation node corridors, under-utilized infrastructure systems, and areas needing recycling and redevelopment. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 14-5 E 4 GLOSSARY OF TERMS accessibility A measure of the ability or ease of all people to travel among various origins and destinations. action A specific activity to be undertaken as a step toward achieving a particular policy/goal. airport ground access Facilities and services for air passengers and air freight handlers to reach airport terminals, e.g., highways, public transit, taxi, or other means of ground transportation. AVO average vehicle occupancy AVR average vehicle ridership bikeway Any road, street, path, or right-of-way that is specifically designated in some manner as being open to bicycle travel, regardless of whether such facilities are designated for the exclusive use of bicycles or are to be shared with other vehicles or pedestrians. busway A special roadway designed for exclusive use by buses. It may be constructed at, above, or below grade and may be located in separate rights-of-way or within highway corridors. bypass lane A reserved traffic lane on a metered freeway entry ramp which permits buses or high-occupancy-vehicles to have preferential treatment when entering the freeway. CBD central business district COG council of governments CPI consumer price index capital costs Nonrecurring or infrequently recurring costs of long- term assets, such as land, guideways,stations,buildings, and vehicles. These costs often include related expenses, for example, depreciation and property taxes. See also operating costs. carpool An arrangement in which two or more people share the use, cost, or both of traveling in privately owned SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page A-1 0 Appendiv A • Glossary of Terns DRAFT DOCUMEA7 automobiles between fixed points on a regular basis; see also vanpool. carpool lane A highway or street lane intended primarily for carpools, vanpools, and other high-occupancy-vehicles, either all day or during specified periods. It may be used by other traffic under certain circumstances, such as while making a right turn. Centers-Based Transit Network A multimodal transit system that connects regional activity centers with their surrounding communities, sub- regional areas, and Southern California as a whole. commercial aviation Aircraft activity licenses by state or federal authority to transport passengers and/or cargo for hire on a scheduled or nonscheduled basis. commuter rail service Short-haul rail passenger service operated within metropolitan and suburban areas. commuter service Transportation provided on a regularly scheduled basis during peak travel periods for users commuting to work, school, and similar destinations. Commuter Transportation Nonprofit corporation which provides information Service (Commuter Computer) and marketing services to aid the formation of ridesharing. congestion Traffic conditions on roads, highways, or freeways which do not permit movement on the facility at optimal legal speeds. Characterized by unstable traffic flows. Recurrent congestion is caused by excess volume capacity. Nonrecurrent congestion is caused by actions such as special events and/or traffic accidents. Congestion Management Program(s) A state mandated program for counties containing (CMP) urbanized areas to provide for statutorily specified programs to reduce traffic congestion. commute Regular travel between home and a fixed location (e.g., work, school). corridor In planning, a broad geographical band that follows a general directional flow or connects major sources of trips. It may contain a number of streets and highways and transit lines and routes. demand 1. The quantity (of transportation) desired. 2. In an economic sense, a schedule of the quantities (of travel) SCAG •Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page A-2 Appendix A • Glossary of Terms DRAFT DOCUMENT consumed at various levels of price or levels of service offered (by the transportation system). discretionary funds Any funds whose distribution is not automatic. Decisions on the distribution of discretionary funds are usually made by an agency or person on the basis of that agency's or person's choice or judgment and in accordance with criteria set out in laws or regulations. EPA Environmental Protection Agency employment centers Locations having a concentration of jobs or employment. Centers may vary in size and density, serving subregional or local markets, generally meeting the needs of the immediate population. equity In transportation,a normative measure of fairness among transportation users. express bus service Bus service with a limited number of stops, either from a collector area directly to a specific destination or in a particular corridor with stops en-route at major transfer points or activity centers. Express bus service usually uses freeways or busways where they are available. expressway A divided arterial highway for through traffic. An expressway has full or partial control of access and generally has grade separations at major intersections. FTA Federal Transportation Authority (formally Urban Mass Transportation Administration- UMTA) facility A physical structure allowing a transportation mode to operate (including travel, as well as the discharge and loading of passengers). This includes highways, guideways, terminals and administrative support locations. feeder service 1. Local transportation service that provides passengers with connections with a major transportation service. Z. Local transit service that provides passengers with connections to main-Iine arterial service; an express transit service station; a rail rapid transit, commuter rail, or intercity rail station; or an express bus stop or terminal. fixed cost A cost that remains relatively constant irrespective of the level of operational activity; expenditures that do not SCAG• Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page A-3 Appendix A • Glossan, of Terms DRAFT DOCUMENT vary with output. Examples include land, guideways, rent. fixed route transit Regularly scheduled service operating repeatedly over the same street or highway pattern on a determined schedule. flexible work hours or A work schedule in which employees can schedule the flextime required number of work hours as they wish. It differs from staggered work hours in that it is the employee, not the employer, who sets the starting and ending times. general aviation All aircraft which are not commercial or military aircraft. grade crossing A crossing or intersection of highways, railroad tracks, other guideways, or pedestrian walks, or combinations of these at the same level or grade. guideway In transit systems, a track or other riding surface (including supporting structure) that supports and physically guides transit vehicles especially designed to travel exclusively on it. high capacity transit Transit systems operating, in whole or part, on a fixed guideway, dedicated right-of-way or freeway/express facility using a service configuration with the capability to provide a unit capacity of 15,000 or more trips per hour. High-Occupancy-Vehicle (1E1OV) Motor vehicle occupied by two or more persons. Vehicles include automobiles, vans, buses, and taxis. High-Occupancy-Vehicle Lane Lanes on a highway or freeway which are restricted for use by vehicles carrying two or more passengers with the exception of motorcycles. high-speed rail Passenger rail service with operating speeds in excess of 125 miles per hour and limited stops (e.g., Japanese Bullet Trains, French TGV and experimental maglev systems). hub-and-spoke (radial) Transit routes that radiate outward from and return to a designated area/transit facility on a time singly or multi- pulse. Service may be bi-directional or operate uni- directional using a street couplet configuration. Radial routes may be inter-connected to form a through configuration and reduce transfers required on high demand routes. Inter-route transfers are accommodated SCAG • Regional Mobility Element December, 1993 page A-4 Appendix A • Glossan• of Terms DRAFT DOCUMENT at a transit facility or designated transfer area. Multi- pulses are often off set to assure inter-route transfers or to mitigate physical space restraints. incentives Measures designed to encourage certain actions or behavior. These include inducements for the use of carpools, buses and other high-occupancy vehicles in place of single-occupant automobile travel. Examples include HOV lanes, preferential parking and financial incentives. infrastructure The basic facilities, equipment, services, and installations needed for the growth and functioning of a community. intermodal Between or including more than one means of mode of transportation. _ Intermodal Surface Signed into federal law on December 18, 1991,it provides Transportation Efficiency authorizations for highways, highway safety, and mass Act (ISTEA) transportation for the next 6 years and serves as the basis of federal surface transportation programs. intersecting grid Transit routes, usually bi-directional, provided on parallel streets and arterials in east/west and north south/configurations. Boards/alights only at designated stops with transfers accommodated at route intersection points. intra-regional service A multi-modal transit service, regional in orientation, connecting major transportation facilities in two or more subregional areas through the use of high and medium capacity transit, operating in whole or part, on fixed guideways, dedicated right-of-ways or freeway/express applications. LRT Light rail transit Level of Service (LOS) A measure of the congested level on a highway facility based primarily on the comparison between the facility's capacity and the traffic volume it carries. Increasing levels of congestion are designated along a scale from A to F where A is for best operation (low volume, high speed), and F is for worst conditions. line-haul transit Transit operations (generally express) along a single corridor or variety of corridors. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page A-S ION Appendix A • Glossary of Teens DRAFT DOCUMENT local service Transit service oriented toward the access, egress and distribution within a specific regional activity center, its component transit attractor/generators, with a service focused on local Transit Hubs, Park-N-Ride and/or Multi-modal Station Facilities. Services operated may include fixed route, para-transit and private-for-hire in both traditional and non-traditional applications. low-capacity transit Local fixed-route or para-transit using traditional route configurations, delayed/real-time dispatch service operating on major/minor arterial and local streets. Levels of service may vary substantially by time of day/season of the year with a unit capacity which does not usually exceed 3000 trips per hour. MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization. medium-capacity transit Transit system operating on a fixed guideway, dedicated right-of-way or freeway/express facility using a service configuration with the capability to provide a unit capacity of 3000-15000 trips per hour. mixed now Traffic movement having autos, trucks, buses, and motorcycles sharing traffic lanes. mobility A transportation system user characteristic referring to the ability of the user to take advantage of the available transportation service. mode A particular form of travel (e.g., walking, traveling by automobile, traveling by bus, or traveling by train). model A mathematical description of a real-life situation that uses data on past and present conditions to make a projection about the future. mode split The proportion of total person-trips using various specified modes of transportation. multimodal Concerning or involving more than one transportation mode. multi-modal station A developed station facility on a designated rail line designed to accommodate user access, egress and distribution between transportation modes (primarily local bus/rail/auto) and the infra-regional/subregional services components. Substantial passenger amenities, user information services and access to other SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page A-6 Appendix A • Glossan.of Terms DRAFT DOCUMENT transportation facilities may be provided on site, through shuttles or by walk links to adjacent areas. NPTS Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey needs assessment In transportation planning, a technique of estimating the services and facilities needed to satisfy the potential demand for transportation service. network 1. In planning, a system of links and nodes that describes a transportation system. 2. In highway engineering, the configuration of highways that constitutes the total system. 3. In transit operations, a system of transit lines or routes, usually designed for coordinated operation. operating costs The sum of all recurring costs (e.g., labor, fuel)that can be associated with the operation and maintenance of the system during the period under consideration. operator Agency responsible for providing a service or operating a facility. (e.g., MTA is a transit operator, Caltrans is the operator of the State Highway System). origin-destination study A study of the origins and destinations of the trips of vehicles or travelers. It may also include trip purposes and frequencies. pare-transit (demand response) Public or privately operated, regularly or dispatched on demand (delayed or real-time) providing "curb to destination" transit service. Normally used in specialized applications with user eligibility limitations (e.g., elderly and/or handicapped) or where demand is not sufficient to support fixed route service. park and ride An access mode to transit in which patrons drive private automobiles or ride bicycles to a transit station, stop, or carpool/vanpool waiting area and park the vehicle in the area provided for that purpose(park-and-ride lots, park- and-pool lots, commuter parking lots, bicycle rack or locker). They then ride the transit system or take a car- or vanpool to their destinations. peak period 1. The period during which the maximum amount of travel occurs. It may be specified as the morning (a.m.) or afternoon or evening(p.m.) peak. 2. The period when demand for transportation service is heaviest. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page A-7 Appendix A 0 Glossan, of Tens DRAFT DOCUMENT performance indicator (Measure of effectiveness) -- A quantitative measure of how well an activity, task, or function is being performed. In transportation systems, it is usually computed by relating a measure of service output or use to a measure of service input or cost. person trip A trip made by a person by any mode or combination of modes for any purpose. pricing A strategy for charging users. It may be used to ration demand (change behavior), cover costs, or achieve other policy objectives. private-for-hire Privately operated common carrier or contract service (e.g., taxi-cabs,jitneys,private shuttles,subscription bus or van services). privatization The contracting of public services or selling of public assets to private industry. public transportation Transportation service by bus, rail, para-transit, van, airplane, and ship offered by an operator on a regular basis to the general public. ramp metering Traffic signal control on an entry ramp to a freeway for regulating vehicle access. region The SCAG region comprises Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura Counties. Regional Transportation A 3-7 year multi-modal program of regional Improvement Program (RTIP) transportation improvements for highways, transit and aviation. The RTIP consists of projects drawn from the Regional Transportation Plan. The projects are directed at improving the overall efficiency and people-moving capabilities of the existing transportation system while incrementally being developed into the long-range plan. Regulation XV A regulation developed by the South Coast Air Quality Management District affecting public and private employers in the South Coast Air Basin. It is designed to reduce air pollution by reducing the number and type of commuter vehicle trips between home and working during the 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. period. ridesharing The cooperative effort of two or more people traveling together. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page A-8 Appendix A • Glossanv of Terms DRAFT DOCUMENT Rule 210 A trip reduction measure created by the Ventura County Air Pollution Control District to reduce air pollution by requiring employers to devise and implement methods to reduce single occupant vehicle trips by their employees. It targets worksites of 50 or more people. staggered work hours A work schedule in which employees' starting and ending times are staggered by the employer. subregional service A multi-modal transit service oriented toward access, egress and distribution between the regional activity centers within specific subregional areas, and providing connectivity to the intra-regional services. Service may be high and/or medium capacity transit operated in whole or part on fixed guideway, dedicated right-of- ways, major arterial streets and/or freeway/express facility applications. system management Increasing flow of travel on existing facilities through such improvements as ramp metering, signal synchronization, and removal of on-street parking, among others. Improvements typically have a low capital cost, do not call for major construction and can be implemented in a relatively short time frame. telecommunications The conveyance of information by electronic means. Examples include the telephone, interactive cable facilities, computer networks and video conference centers. traffic signal synchronization A process by which a number of traffic signals are synchronized to affect efficient progression. transit dependent Individual(s) dependent on public transit to meet private mobility needs ( e.g., unable to drive, not a car owner, not licensed to drive, etc.). F transit facility A physical structure developed for the specific use and support of transit. transit hub facility A developed facility or designated area (e.g. transit mall, El Monte bus station), on or off street, designed to accommodate inter-route transfers and distribution,route and system use information, fare medium sales and/or may be adjacent to other transportation facilities such as Park-n-Ride. A transit hub facility design can be as basic as an on street "pulse point" with minimal passenger amenities or as complex as a regional bus facility such as the El Monte Bus Station. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page A-9 Appendix A • Glossary of Terns DRAFT DOCUMENT transportation center Transportation terminal facilities or other locations where people can change their travel from ground transportation to other transportation modes (e.g., airports, seaports, spaceports). vanpool An organized ridesharing arrangement in which a number of people travel together on a regular basis in a van. The van may be company owned, individually owned, leased, or owned by a third party. Expenses are shared, and there is usually a regular volunteer driver. See also carpool. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 1. On highways, a measurement of the total miles traveled by all vehicles in the area for a specified time period. It is calculated by the number of vehicles times the miles traveled in a given area or on a given highway during the time period. 2. In transit, the number of vehicle miles operated on a given route or line or network during a specified time period. vehicle trip The one-way movement of a vehicle between two points. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element 0 December, 1993 Page A-10 :. �' = ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS RME STRATEGIC COMMITTEE MEMBERS Susan Cornelison, Riverside County Transportation Commission Zahi Faranesh, California Department of Transportation Dr. Genevieve Giuliano, USC Planning Institute David Gunderman, Western Regional Council of Governments Cindy Krebs, Orange County Transportation Authority Laurie Hunter, Commuter Transportation Services Brad McAllister, Metropolitan Transportation Authority Wesley McDaniel, San Bernardino Association of Governments Shirley Medina, Riverside County Transportation Commission Michael Meyer, Meyer - Mohaddes Associates Lisa Mills, Orange County Transportation Authority Ray Remy, Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce Ty Schuiling, San Bernardino Association of Governments Sarah Siwek, Metropolitan Transportation Authority Richard Spicer, Southern California Association of Governments, Chair Richard Stanger, Southern California Regional Rail Authority Chris Stephens, Ventura County Transportation Commission Douglas Thompson, California Air Resources Board Judy Wilson, Metropolitan Transportation Authority SCAG SUBREGIONS - IVAG Mayor Pro Tern Linda Britschgi CVAG Mayor Pro Tern William Arenstein WRCOG Councilmember Denise Lanning SANBAG Supervisor Barbara Cram Riordan VCOB Councilmember Frank Schillo City of LA R. Ann Siracuss Westside Cities Councilmember Abbe Land Arroyo-Verdugo Vice Mayor George Battery, Jr. Vice Mayor Kathryn Nack North County Councilmember David Myers Councilmember Jo Anne Darcy Orange County Roger Stanton, Chair, OCTA San Gabriel Valley Mayor Terry Dipple SELAC Councilmember Evelyn Woods Councilmember Bob Stone South Bay Cities Councilmember Garland Hardeman SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page B-1 Appendix B • Acknowledgements DRAFT DOCUMEAT MARKET INCENTIVES TASK FORCE Jacki Bacharach, Rancho Palos Verdes Walter K. Bowman, City of C7press Richard Dixon, Lake Forest John Flynn, Ventura County Candace Haggard, San Clemente Mike Hernandez, City of Los Angeles Judy Mikels, City of Simi Valley Ronald Parks, Temecula Bev Perry, Brea Larry Rhinehart, Montclair Thomas H. Sykes, Walnut Judy Wright, Claremont TECHNOLOGY TASK FORCE George Battey, Jr., Burbank John Cox, Newport Beach Cynthia Crothers, Moreno Valley Jerry Eaves, San Bernardino Robert Jamison, Artesia Richard Kelly, Palm Desert David Myers, Palmdale Gwenn Norton-Perry, Chino Hills SCAG/SCAQMD TCM POLICY COMMITTEE John Cox, SCAG Jon Mikels, SCAQMD Richard McGregor, RCTC Bob Nolan, SANBAG (CTQ TCM TECHNICAL ADVISORY GROUP Gene Calafato, SCAQMD Susan Cornelison, RCTC Zahi Faranseh, California Department of Transportation Hugh Fitzpatrick, Business Representative Anne Geraghty, California Air Resources Board Jim Gosnell, SCAG Laurie Hunter, Commuter Transportation Services Veronica Kun, Environmental Representative Jim Ortner, OCTA Ty Schuiling, SANBAG Sarah Siwek, LACMTA SCAG • Regional Mobilinv Element • December, 1993 Page B-2 • Appends' B • AcknowledgemenL' DRAFT DOCUMEAT Subregions Dee Allen, Chy of Los Angeles Jim Birckhead, Western Riverside COG Chuck Ebner, Southeast LA Cities Julie Hemphill, SANBAG Bill Hodge, Orange County Shoghig Kalaydjian, Arroyo Verdugo Lawrence Stevens, San Gabriel Valley Cities SCAG • Regional Mobiliry Element • December, 1993 Page B-3 I ' ��',?1J a LIST OF CHAPTER AUTHORS CHAPTER ONE: Introduction Patrick Michell (213) 236-1880 CHAPTER TWO: Executive Summary: Goals, Pat Michell (213) 236-1880 Objectives, Strategies, and Richard Spicer (213) 236-1887 Finance CHAPTER THREE: Regional TDM Program Dilara El-Assaad (213) 236-1891 _ CHAPTER FOUR: Regional Transit Program Barry Samsten (213) 236-1918 CHAPTER FIVE: Regional Streets and Debra A. Varnado (213) 236-1852 Highways Program CHAPTER SIX: Regional Non-Motorized Robert Chacon (213) 236-1945 Transportation Program CHAPTER SEVEN: Regional Goods Movement Debra A. Varnado (213) 236-1852 Program CHAPTER EIGHT: Regional Aviation System Tim Merwin/Jaleh Mirhashemi Program (213) 236-1910 (213) 236-1919 CHAPTER NINE: Long Range Corridors Arnold San Miguel (909) 784-1513 CHAPTER TEN: Financial Program Steve Zweiback (213) 236-1836 CHAPTER ELEVEN: Regional TCM Program Erika Vandenbrande (213) 236-1911 CHAPTER TWELVE: Regional Action Program Dan Akins (213) 236-1972 Summary CHAPTER THIRTEEN: Socioeconomic Implications Patrick Michell (213) 236-1880 CHAPTER FOURTEEN: Urban Form and Mobility Vivian Doche (213) 236-1833 GLOSSARY OF TERMS Joel Bryant (213) 236-1940 ` RME DOCUMENT COORDINATOR Rudy McCoy/Dan Akins (213) 236-1912/236-1972 MAPS David Butman/Welma Fu (213) 236-1813/235-1872 Other Contributors and Staff: Mike Ainsworth, Grieg Asher, Terry Bills and GIS Staff, Pat Cadena, Erica Canari, Nancy Cobb, Bob Huddy, Hong Kim and Modeling Staff, Sriram Krishnamurthy, Eddie Leroy, Ronsheng Luo, Bill Martinez, Mice Martinez, Mike Meyers, Cathy Rachal, Eric Roth and RTIP Staff, Victor Ryden, Mahmoud Shams-Ahmadi,David Stein and RCP Staff/Technical Liason Staff, John Strickland, Charlie Wagner, Kurt Walker, and Bernice Villanueva. Address RME comments to: SCAG, 818 W. Seventh St., Los Angeles, CA 90017, (213) 236-1800 SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page C-1 O SUBREGIONAL INPUT Concerns expressed by the SCAG subregions regarding the Regional Mobility Element are included in this section. These concerns were compiled by the SCAG technical liaisons to the subregions. San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities (SGVAC) The comments received from the SGVAC did not reflect any direct concerns regarding the RME. Nevertheless, they did choose to identify major transportation projects which were completed within the last year in the subregion. Metrolink commuter rail service from Union Station (Los Angeles) to San Bernardino and Riverside and a preliminary planning study that defined transit options for the Route 10/60 corridor (corridor has been included as a Candidate Corridor in LACMTA's 30 Year Plan) were among the major projects completed in the San Gabriel Valley. The SGVAC also listed transportation projects under construction, planned and/or programmed in their subregion. Among the projects identified are: • Extension of Metro Blue Line light rail service to Pasadena. • Environmental review, clearance, and design efforts for the Foothill Freeway (Route 30) and the Long Beach Freeway ( I-710) gap closures and the upgrade of the four lane Corona Expressway (Route 71) to a full freeway. • Route 57/60 interchange improvements • "Smart Street" corridors along Interstates 10 and 210, as well as Route 60. • Completion of high occupancy vehicle lanes along I-210; and • Design and extension of the El Monte Busway (I-10) to San Bernardino County. has The SGVAC identified various transit and TDM projects in the San Gabriel Valley for evaluation, prioritization, and support. Listed below are some of the projects identified: • Extension of the Pasadena Blue Line Light Rail system into the Foothill cities east of Pasadena. • Express bus service to the San Fernando Valley. • Development of additional Metrolink stations along the on the San Bernardino and Riverside lines. • Pasadena Shuttle and parking management program. • Pomona telecommuting center • I-605 corridor rideshare marketing program; and 0 Route 60 park-and-ride facility. South East Los Angeles Association of Cities (SELAC) SELAC's biggest concern is the need for economic revitalization. From a mobility perspective, this need can best be addressed by the provision of an effective goods movement system. The current recession has hit SELAC especially hard. For many years, SELAC was the dominant manufacturing center in the region. However, during the last decade, SELAC is the only subregion in the SCAG region to experience a net loss in employment. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page D-1 Appendix D • Subregional Input Draft Document During more prosperous economic times, the central component of SELAC's success was its rail, highway, and port facilities. These facilities offered SELAC access to regional, national, and international markets. While the SCAG region is economically depressed, SELAC feels that it is positioned to play a pivotal role in the region's economic recovery because of its access to facilities crucial for goods movement. In addition, the Alameda Corridor Project, which transverses SELAC, is slated as the number one public works project in the state. In order to pursue the goal of "economic vitality", as mentioned in Chapter Two of the RME, SELAC states that the region must give adequate attention to the issue of goods movement - especially the Alameda Corridor. Imperial Valley Association of Governments aVAG) The economic implications associated with the new port of entry (East Border Crossing), just east of Calexico, and its required transportation improvements are the primary concerns for the IVAG. The IVAG has also stated its desire for the RME to include its 20 year Imperial County Transportation Plan. Coachella Valley Association of Governments (CVAG) The CVAG's chief transportation concern is that its plans and programs, especially the regional arterial program, be recognized in the RME. Western Riverside Council of Governments (WRCOG) The primary transportation concern for the WRCOG, regarding the RME, is implementation of the Intracounty road system/network to serve existing and forecasted growth. San Bernardino Associated Governments (SANBAG) No comments have been submitted as of November 11, 1993. City of Los Angeles The City of Los Angeles subregion had various comments regarding the content of the RME. The City - recommends that the RME maintain a balanced approach among infrastructure development,TDM,TSM, and transit. They specifically stressed that we give serious consideration to HOV lanes and the use of such lanes by buses. Additionally,they urged that we encourage competitive bidding for transit service. LADOT has found this process to be cost-effective as well as efficient. In order to make rail transit accessible for all, the L.A. City subregion strongly suggest that we identify the use of feeder buses to and from transit station. Lastly, the subregion also favors high-technology solutions that enhance the carrying capacity of existing facilities. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page D-2 —d c AMENDMENTS PROCESS The RME is a long-range, multi-modal and intermodal transportation maintenance and development during a 20-year time frame. It is clearly recognized, however, that the RME is prepared in a dynamic environment involving population, housing, employment, land-use forecasts, and technological change. Revenue streams may become available or may be discontinued. Cost assumptions may need to be adjusted. Therefore, it is necessary to understand that even though decision-makers fully anticipate and are committed to the implementation of the RME, amendments to an RME may be necessary from time to time. The RME is prepared in accordance with state and federal requirements. Both the federal and state requirements recognize that the plan must be reviewed for efficacy every two or three years and require that a "new" plan be prepared or that the existing plan be rectified. Historically, SCAG has prepared a "new" RME approximately every four years (with an environmental impact statement) and annual or biannual recertifications which include minor ammendemnts with a"negative declaration" to meet environmental requirements. The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 and the ISTEA of 1991 have added a new requirement to the metropolitan transportation planning process. The RME must be prepared in conformity with the State Implementation Plan (SIP) for air quality with regard to the appropriate air basins. A new conformity statement must also be prepared whenever the RME or the TIP is amended.' Recognizing the need for amendments, SCAG will commit to at least one major amendment, if needed, every two years between plan adoption dates. This includes preparation for the conformity statement. Plan amendments that do not require preparation of a conformity statement may be prepared more frequently. 1 If amendments to the Plan or Program do not affect air uali q ty,a new conformity statement may not be required. However, this is not clearly stated in federal statutes,and it may be necessary to prepare a conformity report no matter how minor the amendment to the Plan or Program may be. SCAG•Regional Mobility Element•December, 1993 Page E-1 Y7 77ISTEA PLANNING FACTORS v cUn fl o oho mE � c c 6 0 9 >a c o oo E U c o ar o _u .4 0 _- g r._E 2 $ 'o V y p' a "' ^p 5 ' w U 0 tr c > m u o e G °�' ° "' o �S I? c cc � yp� U •� O� y � ._ ._ o •- � 5 E t C -o G = U O � •� E .` � � E Q 79 pen y c u 4) z Z � 5g '� p g °° gS � � e � .5 0 � 3c � � y , a � c a � A nr O0 Lei Q Q � D Q0 78 v ,o E 0 cC 9 a t to 8 �] ; 0 CIO c m ° u U `c _S o i V b p pp y G G v c a c � y-6q y Eu K o •-��- c V H {r >1 03 •� � g3 •a b lY eo r ,cam 0 Z — N SCAG 0 Regional Mobility Element December, 1993 Page F-1 O ¢ XU cc to � cr oco °�' ; c c a .� v '� 3 > _ Y o aci °' _'a E G o0 0 c s :: a� .> +; aci = Q E > -o ea C — 04 v .�. p .r O .^' y W C G U ea E d U O cc in o o ` ,o s ° e. w en cc 3 c G > En o0 Z, tr p — c7 d cc G n v °�' 0 3 ° 3 —ai o CU°-� '° C� o W aQ •c cc cz c �, N _ c c ei = vUi t=E _ •wD N G N G C c O e 'O 6. .2 � N � � :r y � G C v Q 'C CUO v OA d rn O C h s F Oo E G v ;� E s h r v' c0 U p v C �. �. �. 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Los Angeles Traffic Signal o The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) recently approved the County Synchronization establishment of a signal support group to oversee the implementation of a program to coordinate the operation of 10,000 traffic signals in Los Angeles County. Orange County Traffic Signal o Six signal synchronization and sixteen intersection improvements Synchronization projects. San Bernardino Traffic Signal o City of Chino received ISTEA fund for signal synchronization and has County Synchronization budgeted these funds for synchronization on major streets. o City of Fontana - Citrus Ave. synchronization is completed and Sierra Ave. is underway. o City of Loma Linda has applied for a FETSIM grant to synchronize signals on Barton Rd., Mountain View Ave,. and Redlands Blvd. o City of Montclair -synchronization of all arterials and Montclair Plaza; Citywide traffic model with developer fee mechanism for roadway improvements. o City of Ontario has had synchronization and coordinated traffic signal program which is computer implemented since 1984. o City of Rancho Cucamonga has traffic model program that identifies "hot spots" o City of Redlands completed intersection channelization and signal replacing 4-way stop at California Street and Redlands Blvd. o City of Rialto--Foothill Blvd. (Rte. 66) has been synchronized; Application has been submitted for funding of Baseline Rd. (Rte. 30). o City of San Berardino completed several interconnect projects throughout the city with others pending. o City of Yucaipa--development impact fee program will pay for implementation. o County of San Bernardino continues to implement signal synchronization throughout the County through land development process, CIP, and cooperation with SANBAG and its jurisdictions. Orange County Smart Streets o The Superstreet program is Orange County is a 220 mile network of Transportation arterial streets targeted for operational improvements by the Orange Agency County Transportation Agency. The proposed improvements include signal synchronization, restriping, road widening, intersection grade separations, bus turnouts, removal of on-street parking, and intersection improvements. The network includes 21 major arterials throughout the County such as Beach Blvd., Katella Ave., and El Toro Rd. Caltrans Smart Streets o The Santa Monica Freeway "Smart Corridor" demonstration project has been under construction and will be completed by the end of 1993. Caltrans Nighttime o Implemented a program of increase nighttime maintenance to reduce the District #7 Maintenance impacts of planned freeway closures. Currently, District #7 has a full crew of maintenance workers with normal nighttime duties. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page G-1 0 Appendix- G • Status of TSM Actions Recommended In The 1989 RMP DRAFT DOCUMENT AGENCY TSM ACTION PROJECT Orange County Traffic o The Orange County Operations Study was completed in August 1991. Operation The study identified a proposed location and staffing of a modern TOC Centers with control over changeable message signs, ramp metering timing, dispatching of CHP officers and incident response teams. Caltrans Traffic o District #7 TOC has been updated to enhance integration of multi-agency District #7 Operation traffic surveillance. The Los Angeles TOC is staffed 24 hours a day, 7 Centers days a week with Traffic, Maintenance, and CHP personnel. District #7 has interlink with the City of Pasadena by the end of 1992. 0 An interim Traffic Operation Center located at the District Office (Phase I). Caltrans Truck Accident o Caltrans District 97 has developed restriction of trucks on certain District N7 freeways. Caltrans has activities involving end of queue notification and protection by Caltrans Incident Response team to avoid truck-related secondary accidents. Caltrans is working with the City of Los Angeles on truck ordinance for truck rescheduling and re-routing. California Truck Accident o The California Highway Patrol reports that many steps have been taken Highway Patrol over the last several years in an attempt to reverse the increase in truck accidents. Caltrans 1112 Changeable o The Changeable Message Signs (CMS) system has been expanded in Message Signs 1992 and will continue in future years as part of the Anaheim Traffic Management Demonstration Project and Traffic Management facilities included in the widening of Route 5, 55, and 57. 0 $20 million proposal for TSM projects including additional CMS. Caltrans 1112 Closed Circuil. o Closed Circuit Television will be initiated via the Traffic Management Television Plan which provided for the widening of Routes 5 and 55. 0 $20 million proposal for TSM projects including additional CCTV. Caltrans 11 12 Ramp Meter o The ramp metering system will be expanded to include the southern portion of southbound Route 5. 0 $20 million proposal for TSM projects including additional ramp meters. California Media o Media information personnel has been provided by CHP. Highway Patrol Information Personnel Caltrans 1112 Dispatch o Dispatch Freeway Service Patrol Freeway Service Patrol Caltrans #12 Two-way Radio o Two-way Radio Base Stations. Base Stations Caltrans 1112 Electronic Loop 0 $20 million proposal for TSM projects including electronic loop Detectors detectors. Caltrans k12 Communicatioins o $20 million proposal for TSM projects including electronic loop System detectors. Enhancements SCAG • Regional MobiliAl Element • December, 1993 Page G-2 Appendix G • Status of TSM Actions Recommended In The 1989 RMP DRAFT DOCUMEAT AGENCY TSM ACTION - PROJECT MTA Freeway Patrol o MTA, in cooperation with Caltrans and CHP, has implemented the largest Freeway Service Patrol program in the nation. Service started in July 1991. Over 88 tow trucks patrol over 200 miles of freeway during peak periods assisting stranded motorists. o The 1991-92 annual statistics for the MTA FSP program shows that over 155,000 motorists received assistance/sery ices. These same statistics illustrate the majority of motorists are receiving services in less than 10 minutes as opposed to the normal 20 to 30 minutes for response times to a call for assistance. Due to the success of the program, MTA has proceeded with plans to expand the service throughout Los Angeles County. In cooperation with MTA and other local transportation agencies, the CHP and Caltrans are expanding the FSP program to include all urban freeways within the state. This expansion will include Riverside County, Orange County, and additional miles in Los Angeles County. California Incident o The CHP has been assigned responsibility for emergency incident Highway Patrol Command coordination and management at emergency incidents where the CHP has System primary investigative authority. This responsibility may be as incident commander where an incident is contained totally within CHP jurisdiction or may he operational when the incident is beyond the CHP exclusive jurisdiction. The ICS has been established as the response mechanism for all CHP emergency incidents. California Special Services o The Special Services Commander will be responsible for all commercial, Highway Patrol Commander air operations, and investigative services programs within that division. This reorganization of program responsibility is designed to centralize coordination and enhance communication and management of the impact programs. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page G-3 � o !'SIX Ho SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR RME MODELING ALTERNATIVES FOR 1990 AND 2010 12 -1 u , E < oo a v_ ego — i $ y ,n C > • C Q Go a O O � � � > 3 � • � D e1 N ti en V O V El u • b P 00 10 Q. <U < r N a 10 0 en eq a E a3ca 8 01 b V .� ` oo < h N 6 N 1 O C f1 N OD V � N1 !'1 (� V b v n fn Z 2 � ~ y h � o 0 SCAG• Regional Mobiliry Element 0 December, 1993 Page X-1 O O 8o Bo Bo v O V1 O O `p ON g a 0 r N B° o ` v 0000 N 00 � t� V p en O O+ 00 O N c•1 ch ° •� LL, C N V T h W V a w N N en ^ mss ., o � N $ OD 00 O� 7 en 00 `0 ° �D N O O v0i N lz VQ Z W o 0 i� O t1 CT O CI V1 0 \C t- N O a 4 O O 0o h 4' 00 00 t� �D Om r r r�i en N 0^ O O O O v q O W) oo kn p O N Vii tN'f p N 00 C. `a �O 00 Z a L e oc h tn e J W < O O O ° F, O p V y W W 2 W W h y h �. h Dom. < ` ` O .Q. Cn z = v c V f 9 ! a § § 7 k � k R ~ - � ■ r4 } § ■ fn ] k 2 � ! ■ K � & m 2 � � - m . 2 . � ■ o 2 m ® § � % ~Q CC,/ $ 2 to ° � / § � § z7 � \ ci - / ° c0f: � ` ez E � = @ , _ [ \ Cc2 % k ■ � z .2T a . ; 2 � c7 ƒ Q \ / } \ % « . M . § � . l SOCIOECONOMIC FORECAST AND MODELING PARAMETERS • The SCAG model uses 1990 socioeconomic data derived from the national census and other sources. The socioeconomic forecast for 2010 was approved for planning purposes by the SCAG Regional Council during the summer of 1993. • The total regional population for 2010 is 20.5 million, an _ increase of approximately 40 percent (2 percent/year) during 1990 (14.7 million) and 12 percent during the 2010 forecast in the adopted 1989 SCAG Regional Plan (18.3 million). The total regional employment for 2010 is 9.7 million, an increase of 37 percent (1.9 percent/year) from 1990 (7.1 million). Compared to the employment forecast used for 2010 in the 1989 Regional Plans (9.0 million), the new employment forecast is an increase of 7.8 percent. The distribution of the socioeconomic forecast is the same for five of the future alternatives and different for two of them: the 1989 RNtP with a distribution based on the R jobs/housing balance policy and the Urban Form Alternative that ' places about 50 percent of the new growth near rail stations. • The region covered by the jnodel is Los Angeles, Orange and Ventura counties as well as ,the contiguous urbanized areas of western San Bernardino and giverside counties. Imperial County is not included. For the Final RME, Victorville and Coachella Valley will be included in model runs. • The quantitative information in this Draft RME covers the period 1990 to 2010. A separately prepared Draft Environmental Impact Report will analyze the impacts of the Constrained Project to the year 2015. The 2015 alternative relies on the socioeconomic forecast extended from 2010 to 2015 and a transportation system that adds transit in Los Angeles, and Ventura counties, but no new high-occupancy vehicle lanes. • The RTIP for future alternatives is the 1993-1999 version as updated by the county transportation commissions and Caltrans during July 1993. The amended version of this RTIP will be included in the final alternative proposed for adoption in first quarter of 1994. • Several policies are common to most or all of the new modeled alternatives for the year 2010. For the South Coast Basin and Ventura County, all the alternatives represent employer trip reduction rules (Regulation XV etc.) as 80 percent effective. In all the alternatives, people working at home account for a 4.1 percent trip reduction and telecommunications results in a 3.7 SCAG •Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 1-1 r Appendix 1 • Socioeconomic Forecast cast and Modeling Parameters DRAFT DOC UMEI`? percent trip reduction, except for the basic Innovative Project in which the total trip reduction reaches is 6.3 percent. Technological advances in the in the transportation freeway system improve capacity by 5 percent in all the alternatives, with the exception of the Innovative Project in which capacity increases by 10 percent For all the scenarios, fuels are cleaned in accord with the ARB's regulations that require 10 percent zero-emission vehicles. SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page 1-2 APP 71N =1 PROJECT INCLUSION CRITERIA SCAG's Transportation and Communications Policy Committee, with the advice from the RME Strategic Committee, has approved several "working criteria" to be used in guiding decision-makers on project inclusion. Criteria are not designed established priorities. Projects need not meet all criteria. I Inclusion Criteria 1 • Does the project improve system performance? System Performance may be measured by various indicators depending on the mode. For example, Average Vehicle Occupancy(AVO) and congestion reduction may be used for highway projects, ridership per hour may be used for transit projects. 2 • Does the project reduce reliance on single-occupant vehicles? 3 • Does the project promote economic vitality? Economic development may be measured by industrial development, improved goods movement, enhanced investment in the region, and job creation/growth. 4 • Does the project provide multi-modal or intermodal access to ports, airports, or other activity centers? Interconnectivity of modes increases the efficiencies of the transportation system. Will this project assist in increasing the efficiency of transportation? 3 • Does the project support air quality goals? Federal and state law require that various reductions in emissions and Vehicle Miles Traveled(VMT) be achieved over time through implementation of the plan. • Does the project support local land-use planning? Research has indicated that land-use and urban form can influence the number and type of trips made by households. Will implementation of the project support reaching the land-use goals of the region? _ • Is reasonably available funding anticipated for the project including funding for capital, maintenance and operation? ISTEA requires that only those projects that are funded with reasonably expected funds may be included within the plan. 9 • Does the Project demonstrate maximum leveraging of local funds to meet available state and federal funds? 9 • Does the project include or involve market incentives? 10 • Does the project use Advanced Transportation Technology for i air quality or mobility? 11 • Does the project promote energy conservation? SCAG • Regional Mobility Element • December, 1993 Page.1-1