HomeMy WebLinkAbout04- Finance City of San Bernardino
General Fund Financial Projections
Fiscal Years 2010 to 2015
General Overview:
Effective businesses must continually analyze operations and develop financial plans that
address the short term, mid-range, and long-term time frames. This type of analysis is
critical for an organization to maintain its financial strength and stability. A financial
analysis that reinforces a long-range focus allows an organization to systematically
identify, plan and achieve goals within its available financial resources.
A long range financial focus becomes even more critical in the face of the devastating
economic decline that our country has faced since the fall of 2008. Our city has had to
respond to changing financial conditions in a manner and speed that is unprecedented.
The stock market incurred record losses, housing values experienced steep declines, the
foreclosure rate skyrocketed and unemployment rates dramatically escalated. The State
of California continues to wrestle with multi-billion dollar deficits and the national, state
and regional economy is still volatile and unstable.
In response to this economic tailspin, the City has depleted most of its financial reserves
and has been forced to balance its budget on a year to year basis using one time
resources, employee 10% concessions, and loans. In order to gain financial stability, a
long range financial projection is being presented for the City's General Fund. The
projections cover six fiscal years beginning with the current Fiscal Year 2009-2010 and
goes out to Fiscal Year 2014-2015. Detailed below are the main financial assumptions
and analysis that were used to prepare a best, most likely and worse case scenario for the
City's General Fund.
Fiscal Year 2009-2010:
On August 17, 2009 the City adopted its final budget for FY 2009-2010 that included
10% employee concessions, a loan from EDA, and one time property sales to help
balance the budget. As the economic conditions continued to decline,the City had an
additional $4.9 million budget short fall to address at the first quarter budget review. In
the Mid-Year report an additional budget short fall had to be addressed in the amount of
approximately $3.4 million.
In order to address these continued economy driven budget short falls, the FY 2009-2010
budget includes approximately$13 million of one time, non-recurring items. Listed
below is a summary those major non-recurring budget balancing measures; none of these
measures have been included in the 5 year financial projections starting with FY 2010-
2011.
1. $2 million of revenue from sale from property to EDA and the County.
2. $2.6 million of one time revenue identified through various audits and analysis of
City funds
3. $2.9 million from one time loans from EDA and City Regional Development
Impact Fee Fund
4. $.5million of available fund balance from various Internal Service Funds
5. $5 million from employee MOU concessions that end 6/30/10 `!
Revenue Assumptions:
After deducting the various one-time revenue items from the FY 2009-2010 budget, the 5
year projection model employs a range of assumptions as to how revenues will perform.
These assumptions were placed into three categories of projections which included best
case,most likely and worst case. The following provides the percent change in revenues
that was assumed in each of the scenarios.
Best Case Most Likely Worst Case
FY10-11 -.5% -1% -2.5%
FY11-12 .5% -1% -1.5%
FY12-13 1% 1% 1%
FY13-14 2% 1.5% 1%
FY14-15 3% 2% 1.5%
Expenditure Assumptions:
Unlike revenues that had different assumptions for each of the three financial scenarios,
the expenditure assumptions are the same for each scenario. The expenditure
assumptions used in all the financial projections assume that everything authorized in the
FY 2009-2010 adopted budget will continue into the future. For example, the same
number of authorized positions, using the current pay scale, was assumed. Also assumed
in the financial projections were the same operating Departments doing the same amount
and type of work.
Items that have not yet been included in the 5 year financial projection at this point is a
plan to replenish the General Fund Reserve, funds for the replacement of old and out
dated equipment/facility items, costs to implement the IT Strategic Plan, and set aside
funds to cover such expenses as pay off costs of vacation, sick, and holiday time when
employees terminate. It is assumed these costs will continue to be funded from savings
generated by keeping positions vacant. Once the economy and City budget begin to
stabilize, these items need to be added into the financial projections.
In order to be as accurate as possible on future year's projections,the expenditures were
broken down into various budget expenditure categories. The following provides a brief
explanation of the content and assumptions for each of the categories.
Salaries:
1. 10%MOU concessions were not assumed to continue beyond FY 2009-2010.
These concessions saved the City approximately $5 million annually.
2. Charter 186 salary increases for Safety were calculated at about 3%each year
with a small additional amount assumed each year for step increases.
3. Sixteen additional Police positions from the COPS Rehiring Grant were added
into the projections starting in FY 2009-2010. Grant credits were also included to
reflect grant funds paying for the additional 16 positions through the first six
months of FY 2012-2013. It has been assumed that all 16 positions will be
retained by the City after the grant credits end, as a result in FY 2012-2013 there
is an additional $1 million for these positions and $2.2 million in FY 2013-2014
and beyond.
4. For FY 2010-2011 and all future years it has been assumed that SB621 Indian
Gaming Grant Funds will not be received. This assumption increased Police
Safety salaries for the General Fund by$961,200.
5. For all other non-safety positions, a small increase has been included each year
for step increases. No additional salary increases resulting from MOU
negotiations were assumed.
6. Special Pays are all assumed to stay constant with no major changes. The major
items included in this category are auto allowances, uniform allowances for
Safety, and education incentive pay for Safety.
7. Part-Time salaries were assumed to have a slight increase each year due to step
increases and possible minimum wage adjustments.
8. Overtime costs were assumed to increase each year due to Safety Charter 186 pay
increases. Approximately $6.7 million of the $6.9 million overtime budget is
spent in the Police and Fire Departments and all but a very small part is paid to
the Safety employees in those Departments.
Retirement:
1. Since the City has two separate PERS plans, one for Safety employees and one
for all other employees(Miscellaneous employees), the costs have been broken
down into these two categories.
2. PERS provided the City with their best estimate as to what the PERS rates would
be in future years for both plans.
3. After FY 2010-2011 the PERS rates for both plans start to increase by large
amounts until FY 2014-2015. The Safety rate increases about 4%per year and
the Miscellaneous rate increases about 3%per year. These large rate increases are
needed to off set the major investment losses that PERS had during the economic
down turn.
4. Included in the Safety retirement numbers is the $3 million payment for the
Safety Pension Obligation Bonds that the City sold in order to fund some of the
Safety PERS unfunded liability costs.
Other Personnel Costs:
1. City Paid Health Costs include health costs the City currently pays for all
employees and retirees.
2. The City currently budgets about$450,000 per year for retiree health costs. For
most employees the City follows the PERS policy and currently contributes the
minimum amount of about$105/month to retiree health costs. Each year this
amount increases by a CPI-Medical Component and for FY 2010-2011 it will
increase to $108/month according to PERS.
3. City Health cost for current employees are assumed to increase each year for
those bargaining units that have their city contribution tied to the Kaiser rate. For
those groups that have a flat monthly contribution from the City, no increase has
been assumed.
4. Currently, Safety employees can also receive a higher City contribution to their
retiree health costs if they have received enough service years with the City as
negotiated in the current Memorandum of Understanding. These added costs
would also be covered by the annual projected increases in this category.
5. Other taxes the City is required to pay are the Unemployment Tax and Medicare
Tax. The City only pays its share of these costs and the employee is responsible
for his or her share.
Other Operational Costs:
For Maintenance & Operations costs, Contractual, Internal Service Charges, and Capital
Outlay a 2% increase has been factored into each year. This increase is to cover any
price increases or replacement costs for current items.
Debt Service Charges are assumed to stay about the same. The Safety Pension
Obligation Bond costs are not included here as they are included with the Safety
Retirement costs discussed above. The remaining major debt charges currently budgeted
and paid by the City are:
1. City Hall Building $1 million per year.
2. Fire Equipment Leases and Fire Station Lease about $900,000 per year
3. HUB project debt payment$150,000 per year
Budgeted Expenditure Savings:
The estimated budgeted expenditure savings each year after FY 2009-2010 is $1 million.
FY 2009-2010 is anticipated to have a much higher expenditure savings than$1 million
due to some positions being kept vacant to help balance the budget and some positions
simply being filled slower than originally anticipated; however these savings can not be
assumed for future years.
Transfers:
Transfers Out is estimated to stay about the same with about a 2% increase. It is also
assumed that the General Fund will resume appropriating approximately $300,000 per
year into Fleet for vehicle replacement. Also assumed is that the Cultural Development
Fund will no longer continue to fund$250,000 a year for some of the cultural activities at
the Library; the assumption is that the General Fund will pay for all these costs.
Summary
Based on all the assumptions discussed above, for FY 2010-2011 the City is projected to
have revenues short of expenditures by about$23.7 million under the best scenario, $24.3
million under the most likely scenario and$26.2 million under the worst case scenario.
All of these scenarios assume the current budget reserve of just under$1.8 million
remains untouched. Without additional revenues over the current projections, the City
will have to either reduce its total expenditures by about 15-17% or reduce its labor costs
by 20-22% in order to bring the FY 2010-2011 budget into balance.
City of San Bernardino
General Fund Financial Projection Best Case
Updated Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected
2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
Beginning Fund Balance E 2,567,900 E 1,770,400 E 1,770,400 E 1,770,400 E 1,770,400 E 1,770,400
Estimated Revenue:
Property Taxes 29,517,000 29,367,000 29,517,000 29,812,100 30,408,300 31,320,500
Sales Taxes 21,499,000 21,389,000 21,499,000 21,714,000 22,148,300 22,812,700
Utility Users Taxes 22,565,900 22,453,000 22,565,900 22,792,000 23,247,800 23,945,200
Measure Z District Tax 5,250,000 5,225,000 5,250,000 5,302,500 5,408,600 5,570,800
Other Taxes 5,532,000 5,500,000 5,532,000 5,587,300 5,699,000 5,870,000
Total Taxes 84,363,900 83,934,000 84,363,900 85,207,900 86,912,000 89,519,200
Licenses and Permits 8,072,500 8,032,000 8,072,500 8,153,200 8,316,300 8,565,800
Fines and Penalties 3,521,900 3,500,000 3,521,900 3,557,100 3,628,200 3,737,000
Use of Money&Property 2,713,700 730,000 770,600 778,300 793,800 817,700
Intergovernmental 7,088,800 7,050,000 7,088,800 7,160,000 1 7,303,200 7,522,300
Charges for Services 6,068,300 6,038,000 6,068,300 6,129,000 1 6,251,600 6,439,100
Miscellaneous 7,469,400 4,845,100 4,869,300 4,918,0001 5,016,300 5,166,800
Transfers In/Loan Proceeds 15,534,900 12,000,000 12,114,200 12,235,300 1 12,480,000 12,854,400
Total Other Revenues 50,469,500 42,195,100 42,505,600 42,930,900 43,789,400 45,103,100
Total Estimated Revenues 134,833,400 126,129,100 126,869,500 128,138,800 130,701,400 134,622,300
Expenditures:
Salaries:
Full Time 67,222,400 75,482,000 77,987,000 81,305,200 84,826,400 84,887,000
Part-Time 1,856,200 1,875,000 1,900,000 1,925,000 1 1,950,000 1,975,000
Special Pays 1,463,800 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,0001 1,500,000 1,500,000
Overtime 6,935,500 7,500,000 8,000,000 8,400,0001 8,800,000 9,200,000
Subtotal Salaries 77,477,900 86,357,000 89,387,000 93,130,200 1 97,076,400 97,562,000
Retirement:
Safety Retirement 14,278,000 15,000,000 16,775,000 19,600,000 22,700,000 23,700,000
Miscellaneous Retirement 5,139,800 5,500,000 6,000,000 6,700,000 7,500,000 7,600,000
Subtotal Retirement Costs 19,417,800 20,500,000 22,775,000 26,300,000 30,200,000 31,300,000
Other Personnel Costs:
City Paid Health Costs 8,912,000 9,200,000 9,400,000 9,800,000 10,200,000 10,600,000
Misc.Other Taxes 1,257,900 1,281,800 1,324,800 1,364,400 1,404,000 1,443,500
Subtotal Other Personnel 10,169,900 10,481,800 10,724,800 11,164,400 11,604,000 12,043,500
Maintenance&Operation 5,457,100 5,566,200 5,677,500 5.791,000 5,906,800 6,025,000
Contractual Services 7,039,600 7,180,400 7,324,000 7,470,500 7,620,000 7,772,400
Internal Service Charges 13,539,100 13,810,000 14,086,200 14,367,900 14,655,300 14,948,400
Capital Outlay 758,200 773,400 788,900 804,700 820,800 837,200
Debt Service Charges 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600
Loan Repayments - 1,308,700 1,629,400 - - -
Est.Expenditure Savings Factor (2,680,400) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000)
Transfers Out 2,182,100 2,600,000 2,652,000 2,705,000 2,759,100 2,814,300
Total Estimate Expenditures E 135,620,900 E 149,837,100 E 156,304,400 E 162,993,300 E 171,902,000 E 174,562,400
Revenue Over(Under)Expenses (787,500) (23,708,000) (29,434,9 (34,84,500) (41,200,600) (39,940,100)
Reserve Fund Balance E 1,770,400 E (21,937,600) E (27,664,5
(39,430,200) E (38,169,700)
F13 as a%of Expenditures 1.31% -14.64% -17.70% -20.30% -22.94% -21.87%
Debt Sam as%of Expenditures 1.67% 1.51% 145% 1.39% 1.31% 1.29%
City of San Bernardino
General Fund Financial Projection Most Likely Case
Updated Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected
2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
Beginning Fund Balance $ 2,657,900 $ 1,770,400 $ 1,770,400 $ 1,770,400 $ 1,770,400 $ 1,770,400
Estimated Revenue:
Property Taxes 29,517,000 29,221,800 28,930,000 29,219,300 29,658,600 30,251,800
Sales Taxes 21,499,000 21,284,000 21,071,100 21,281,200 21,600,400 22,032,400
Utility Users Taxes 22,565,900 22,340,200 22,116,800 22,338,000 22,673,000 23,126,500
Measure Z District Tax 5,250,000 5,197,500 5,145,500 5,197,000 5,274,900 5,380,400
Other Taxes 5,532,000 5,476,700 5,421,900 5,476,100 5,558,200 5,669,400
Total Taxes 84,363,900 83,520,200 82,685,300 83,511,600 84,765,100 86,460,500
Licenses and Permits 8,072,500 7,991,800 7,911,900 7,991,000 8,110,900 8,273,100
Fines and Penalties 3,521,900 3,486,700 3,451,800 3,486,100 3,538,900 3,610,000
Use of Money&Property 2,713,700 725,000 717,800 725,000 735,900 750,600
Intergovernmental 7,088,800 7,018,000 6,947,800 7,017,300 7,122,600 7,265,100
Charges for Services 6,068,300 6,007,600 5,947,500 6,007,000 6,097,100 6,219,000
Miscellaneous 7,469,400 4,820,700 4,772,500 4,820,200 4,892,500 4,990,400
Transfers In/Loan Proceeds 15,534,900 11,933,500 11,814,500 11,932,600 12,111,600 12,353,800
Total Other Revenues 50,469,500 41,983,300 41,563,800 41,979,200 42,609,500 43,462,000
Total Estimated Revenues 134,833,400 125,503,500 124,249,100 125,490,800 127,374,600 129,922,500
Expenditures:
Salaries:
Full Time 67,222,400 75,482,000 77,987,000 81,305,200 1 84,826,400 84,887,000
Part-Time 1,856,200 1,875,000 1,900,000 1,925,000 1,950,000 1,975,000
Special Pays 1,463,800 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000
Overtime 6,935,500 7,500,000 8,000,000 8,400,000 8,800,000 9,200,000
Subtotal Salaries 77,477,900 86,357,000 89,387,000 93,130,200 97,076,400 97,5629000
Retirement:
Safety Retirement 14,278,000 15,000,000 16,775,000 19,600,000 22,700,000 23,700,000
Miscellaneous Retirement 5,139,800 5,500,000 6,000,000 6,700,000 7,500,000 7,600,000
Subtotal Retirement Costs 19,417,800 20,500,000 22,775,000 26,300,000 30,200,000 31,300,000
Other Personnel Costs:
City Paid Health Costs 8,912,000 9,200,000 9,400,000 9,800,000 10,200,000 10,600,000
Misc.Other Taxes 1,257,900 1,281,800 1,324,800 1,364,400 1,404,000 1,443,500
Subtotal Other Personnel 10,169,900 10,481,800 10,724,800 11,164,400 11,604,000 12,043,500
Maintenance&Operation 5,457,100 5,566,200 5,677,500 5,791,000 5,906,800 6,025,000
Contractual Services 7,039,600 7,180,400 7,324,000 7,470,500 7,620,000 7,772,400
Internal Service Charges 13,539,100 13,810,000 14,086,200 14,367,900 14,655,300 14,948,400
Capital Outlay 758,200 773,400 788,900 804,700 820,800 837,200
Debt Service Charges 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600
Loan Repayments - 1,308,700 1,629,400 - - -
Est.Expenditure Savings Factor (2,680,400) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000)
Transfers Out 2,182,100 2,600,000 2,652,000 2,705,000 2,759,100 2,814,300
Total Estimate Expenditures $ 135,620,900 $ 149,837,100 $ 156,304,400 $ 162,993,300 $ 171,902,000 $ 174,562,400
Revenue Over(Under)Expenses (787,500) (24,333,600) (32,055,300) (37,502,500) (44,527,400) (44,639,900)
Reserve Fund Balance E 1,770,400 $ (22,563,200) $ (30,284,900) $ (35,732,100) $ (42,757,000) $ (42,869,500)
F13 as a%of Expenditures 1.31% -15.06% -19.38% -21.92% -24.87% -24.56%
Debt Sery as%of Expenditures 1.67% 1.51%1 1,45%1 1,39%1 1.31%1 1.29
City of San Bernardino
General Fund Financial Projection Worst Case
Updated Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected
2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
Beginning Fund Balance $ 2,557,900 $ 1,770,400 $ 1,770,400 $ 1,770,400 $ 1,770,400 $ 1,770,400
Estimated Revenue:
Property Taxes 29,517,000 28,779,100 28,347,400 28,630,900 28,917,200 29,350,900
Sales Taxes 21,499,000 20,961,500 20,647,100 20,853,600 21,062,100 21,378,000
Utility Users Taxes 22,565,900 22,001,800 21,671,800 21,888,500 22,107,400 22,439,000
Measure Z District Tax 5,250,000 5,118,800 5,042,000 5,092,400 5,143,300 5,220,500
Other Taxes 5,532,000 5,393,700 5,312,800 5,365,900 5,419,600 5,500,900
Total Taxes 84,363,900 82,254,900 81,021,100 81,831,300 82,649,600 83,889,300
Licenses and Permits 8,072,500 7,870,700 7,752,600 7,830,100 7,908,400 8,027,100
Fines and Penalties 3,521,900 3,433,900 3,382,400 3,416,200 3,450,400 3,502,100
Use of Money&Property 2,713,700 695,900 685,500 692,400 699,300 709,800
Intergovernmental 7,088,800 6,911,600 6,807,900 6,876,0001 6,944,700 7,048,900
Charges for Services 6,068,300 5,916,600 5,827,900 5,886,200 5,945,000 6,034,200
Miscellaneous 7,469,400 4,747,700 4,676,500 4,723,300 4,770,500 4,842,000
Transfers In/Loan Proceeds 15,534,900 11,794,400 11,617,500 11,733,700 11,851,000 12,028,800
Total Other Revenues 50,469,500 41,370,800 40,750,300 41,157,900 41,569,300 42,192,900
Total Estimated Revenues 134,833,400 123,625,700 121,771,400 122,989,200 124,218,900 126,082,200
Expenditures:
Salaries:
Full Time 67,222,400 75,482,000 77,987,000 81,305,200 84,826,400 84,887,000
Part-Time 1,856,200 1,875,000 1,900,000 1,925,000 1,950,000 1,975,000
Special Pays 1,463,800 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000
Overtime 6,935,500 7,500,000 8,000,000 8,400,000 8,800,000 9,200,000
Subtotal Salaries 77,477,900 86,357,000 89,387,000 93,130,200 97,076,400 97,562,000
Retirement:
Safety Retirement 14,278,000 15,000,000 16,775,000 19,600,000 22,700,000 23,700,000
Miscellaneous Retirement 5,139,800 5,500,000 6,000,000 6,700,0001 7,500,000 7,600,000
Subtotal Retirement Costs 19,417,800 20,500,000 22,775,000 26,300,000 30,200,000 31,300,000
Other Personnel Costs:
City Paid Health Costs 8,912,000 9,200,000 9,400,000 9,800,000 10,200,000 10,600,000
Misc.Other Taxes 1,257,900 1,281,800 1,324,800 1,364,400 1,404,000 1,443,500
Subtotal Other Personnel 10,169,900 10,481,800 10,724,800 11,164,400 11,604,000 12,043,500
Maintenance&Operation 5,457,100 5,566,200 5,677,500 5,791,000 5,906,800 6,025,000
Contractual Services 7,039,600 7,180,400 7,324,000 7,470,500 7,620,000 7,772,400
Internal Service Charges 13,539,100 13,810,000 14,086,200 14,367,900 14,655,300 14,948,400
Capital Outlay 758,200 773,400 788,900 804,700 820,800 837,200
Debt Service Charges 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600 2,259,600
Loan Repayments - 1,308,700 1,629,400 - - -
Est.Expenditure Savings Factor (2,680,400) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000) (1,000,000)
Transfers Out 2,182,100 2,600,000 2,652,000 2,705,000 2,759,100 2,814,300
Total Estimate Expenditures $ 135,620,900 $ 149,837,100 $ 156,304,400 $ 162,993,300 $ 171,902,000 $ 174,562,400
Revenue Over(Under)Expenses (787,500) (26,211,400) (34,533,000) (40,004,100) (47,683,100) (48,480,200)
Reserve Fund Balance $ 1,770,400 $ (24,441,000) $ (32,762,600) $ (38,233,700) $ (45,912,700) $ (46,709,800)
FB as a%of Expenditures 1.31% -16.31% -20.96% -23.46% -26.71% -26.76%
Debt Sery as%of Expenditures 1.67%1 1.51% 1.45%1 1.39% 1.31%
1.29%