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HomeMy WebLinkAbout04- Police Department EgCOMPETITIVE EDGE Research& Communication , , .. . di (4 k I _, CITY OF .K. Sail Berilar 1.1110 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll Field Dates:June 10th—June 12`h,2008 (Listed Active Voters, n=506) Entered Into Rec. at MCC/CDC Mtg: _/5/x by: - . A ends Item No: by: v ./ . �-.�.J- City Clerk Secretary City of San Bernardino Polling , Voter Contact and Lobbying for Campaigns and Organizations 2170 Fourth Avenue • San Diego, CA 92101 • voice 619.702.2372 • fax 619.702.2272 • www.cerc.net TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY 1 SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS 2 OVERVIEW 3 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS 4 FINDINGS 7 QUESTIONNAIRE WITH PERCENTAGES 22 NOTES TO THE CROSSTABULATIONS 32 CROSSTABULATIONS 33 VERBATIM RESPONSES TO Q2 Appendix A C SUMMARY Research Objective: 1) Determine viability of Potential City Taxes (Utility User, Transient Lodging, Warehouse, Quarry, 911 Communications) Sample Size: n=506 Margin of Error: ± 4.4% Confidence Level: 95% Sample Methodology: Simple Random Sampling from Listed Sample Jurisdiction: City of San Bernardino Eligibility: Listed Active Voters Interview Method: Telephone Average Duration: 14 Minutes, 4 Seconds Field Dates: June 10`h June 12`h, 2008 Field Facility: Competitive Edge Research, San Diego Project Director: John Nienstedt, Sr. Questions about this data should be directed to: Mr.John Nienstedt, Sr. President Competitive Edge Research&Communication, Inc. 2170 4th Avenue San Diego, CA 92101 (619) 702-2372 Johna,cerc.net San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 1 SAMPLE CHARACTERISTICS GENDER AGE Male 41.6% 18 to 24 7.5% Female 58.4 25 to 34 13.2 35 to 44 14.0 PARTY 45 to 54 23.0 Republican 34.4% 55 to 64 17.9 Democrat 49.9 65 to-74 15.4 Other 15.7 75 and Over 9.2 CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT INCOME 1St 7.5% Under$20,000 13.7% 2nd 7.2 $20 to 40,000 21.7 3rd 9.4 $40 to 60,000 21.5 4th 24.2 $60 to 80,000 20.4 5th 22.0 $80 to 100,000 9.8 6th 10.3 $100,000 to$150,000 8.3 7th 19.4 Over$150,000 4.6 BIRTHPLACE DATE OF REGISTRATION US 90.9% 2006 to Present 21.8% Non-US 9.1 2004 to 2005 18.9 2000 to 2003 18.5 VOTE BY MAIL IN LAST ELECTION 1990 to 1999 23.0 Yes 34.0% Before 1990 17.8 No 66.0 IDEOLOGY TURNOUT HISTORY Very Liberal 7.0% New/Unreliable 21.0% Somewhat Liberal 33.1 Reliable 40.5 Somewhat Conservative 34.5 Very Reliable 38.5 Very Conservative 16.7 Somewhere in between/Unsure 8.6 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 2 OVERVIEW Competitive Edge Research&Communication,Inc.is very pleased to present the results of this study to the City of San Bernardino. Competitive Edge was retained to conduct a telephone survey of active voters residing in the City of San Bernardino. This survey was designed to determine the viability of passing a variety of tax measures. Specifically,the research measured support for and opposition to a Utility User Tax, a Transient Lodging Tax increase,a Warehouse Tax,a Quarry Tax,and a 911 Communications Tax. This research also measured certain demographic characteristics and attitudes of the respondents in an effort to explain the relationships of the variables. All opinions expressed in this report are the professional judgments of Competitive Edge Research& Communication. The project director for this study was John Nienstedt. The questionnaire was principally designed by Lori Sassoon of the City of San Bernardino and John Nienstedt. This report contains the results of 506 telephone surveys. Qualified respondents were limited to active voters residing in the City of San Bernardino. The random sample was provided by Political Data of Burbank, California. Responses were gathered by professional telephone interviewers on June 11th through June 12th,2008,and interviews lasted an average of 14 minutes and 4 seconds. Verification procedures were followed and no surveys were rejected in the process. Editing,coding,computer processing and tabulation of the data were done at Competitive Edge's office in San Diego. The computer tabulations were produced using SPSS PC+ version 15.0,a statistical package copyrighted by SPSS,Inc. The map was produced using Microsoft MapPoint. This survey is strictly the property of the City of San Bernardino. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 3 METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS Sample Methodology The sample is comprised of active voters residing in the City of San Bernardino. Respondents were initially selected using a simple random sampling technique from a voter file maintained by a professional list vendor. The vendor appends phone numbers in order to enhance the Registrar's raw voter file. Based on post-hoc analysis,weighting on age was necessary to ensure an accurate representation of the overall electorate. The Weighting Procedure The adjustment of a sample to match a population on specific sub-groups, sometimes called"post- stratification",is accomplished by multiplying the count in each sub-group by a number called a"weight." This is defined as the ratio of the sub-group's proportion of the total population to its proportion of the sample. The total population in this case is represented by the parameters found in our enhanced base sample which is created by removing records which resulted in bad or disconnected phone numbers. In order to apply the adjustment to all measurements derived from a dataset,the weight value is attached to each individual case. The sample's percentages for age were mathematically adjusted to bring them in line with the proportions found in the base sample of voters. Margin of Sampling Error According to statistical theory,the confidence level associated with a sample of this type is such that,with a question where the respondents answer 50% "yes" and 50% "no," 95%of the time the results are within plus or minus ±4.4%of the true value,where true value refers to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every possible qualified respondent. The degree of error is reduced when responses have larger (e.g. 60%- 40%,70%-30%)percentage differences. Conversely,the margin of error increases when a subset of the entire 506 responses is analyzed. Avoiding Bias In addition to error introduced by sampling variability,there are many other possible sources of bias such as how a question is worded,the question sequence, or individual interviewer techniques. Competitive Edge does everything in its power to minimize these potential sources of bias. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 4 Methodology &Limitations In order to eliminate systematic position bias in the aggregate,the order of some questions was randomized. Systematic position bias occurs when the order in which a series of questions is asked influences the respondents'answers to some of the questions. The order of questions within the batteries Q4-Q6 and the measures were randomized. Likewise,the order of response choices within a question can also be randomized to avoid primacy and recency effects. A primacy effect is when respondents are biased toward the first choice they hear;whereas a recency effect is when the respondents are biased toward the most recent choice they hear. The order of statements in Q3 was randomized. A Snapshot in Time A survey of this type is a good measure of current attitudes that may change over time. This survey should not necessarily serve as an unqualified predictor of events,but as an indicator as to the situation in mid June, 2008. p Classifying Turnout History Respondents who historically turn out to vote in all elections (four of the last four) or three of three elections are coded as "very reliable"voters,while those who voted in three of four,two of three,two of two and one of one elections are coded as "reliable"voters,this information is derived from the sample file. Voters with a history of turning out to vote less frequently,or who have registered to vote since the last election,are coded as "unreliable." The voter likelihood variable can certainly be viewed as a surrogate for overall political participation but also can serve as a marker for opinion leadership.That is,very reliable voters usually represent the opinion leaders in any given community while other voters are usually the"followers." This hierarchical categorization may provide useful clues to determine future support and opposition levels as a campaign or public relations effort runs its course. Categorizing Verbatim Responses to Open-ended Questions Q2 was asked in an open-ended fashion and was subsequently coded for ease of analysis. Codes were created to best represent the information that was given in the verbatim responses with like terms being grouped together. For a code to be created the categorization of responses must represent a minimum of one percent of all verbatim responses. All remaining"uncodable"verbatim responses were subsequently coded as I San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 5 Methodology &Limitations "Other." However,this does not include"Unsure,"where the respondent could not give an answer. Codes that contain the word"General"refer to non-specifics terms. Geocoding and Mapping for San Bernardino rr The geocoding for the San Bernardino data set was performed using MapPoint 2006 with GPS Locator, which combines complete mapping and analysis software with the latest Global Positioning System(GPS) receiver.By linking MapPoint with the addresses that match each respondent,the software defined and rendered zip code regions on the map. Segments were also created,analyzed,and evaluated by geography with MapPoint.The data set had 506 respondents,of which 500 were successfully geocoded. Lack of a complete goecoded set may affect results. Tax Measures Rotation and Survey Programming The computer was programmed to randomly rotate and track the order of the tax measure questions. This P was done to analyze the performance of each measure in situations where it was the only measure on the ballot or when other measures accompanied it. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 6 C r FINDINGS Background Basic Demographics Fifty-eight percent of the active electorate is comprised of women. The data show that women tend to reside in households where incomes are lower. Forty-two percent of women report household incomes of less than $40,000;the comparable figure for men is only 27%. However,on the whole,there is no significant difference in age between men and women in San Bernardino. Men in San Bernardino tend to be more conservative than women,as the latter basically load equally on both sides of the ideological spectrum while 58% of males consider themselves to be conservative (20% strongly so). This plays out as a large gender gap related to party. Fifty-four percent of women are registered as Democrats while the figure is only 45% for men. Women tend to vote by mail more often and tend to have been registered longer than men (due, perhaps,to lower rates of transiency),but they are no more reliable than men when it comes to voting. From the standpoint of age,the largest bloc of voters is between the ages of 45 and 74. Most young voters, as well as most elderly voters,are among the poorest residents in San Bernardino,often earning less than $40,000 annually. Middle-aged voters,on the other hand, tend to earn at least$40,000 per year and more than one-quarter earn over$80,000. There is a significant age-based partisan difference. Democrats overwhelm Republicans among older voters. However,it is not that Republicans gain among younger voters but that Democrats lose out to non-partisans. Among those under the age of 35,Republicans,Democrats and non-partisans (independents) all share about one-third of the electorate. There is,of course,a huge relationship between age and turnout likelihood. More than half the voters over 54 are categorized as very reliable,meaning they will vote even in low turnout elections (specials and municipals). Among 35 to 54 year- olds,reliability decreases markedly and only about one-third can be considered reliable. Among younger voters about one-in-seven qualify for the"very reliable"label and more than 40% are unreliable. Older voters are also far more likely to cast a ballot by mail. Nine percent of the electorate was born outside the United States. San Bernardino is not an affluent city and 70%make less than$80,000 annually. Upper income voters are much more likely to be Republicans,as 53% of those earning more than$80,000 are GOP members. On the other hand,only 26%of those making less than$40,000 are Republicans and a whopping 56%are registered Democrats. Upper income voters are only slightly more reliable when it comes to voting than are low income voters. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 7 Politics and Elections Thirty-nine percent describe themselves as liberal to some degree,but, despite Democrats out-numbering Republicans by a significant margin,half of the Registered Democrats label themselves as ideologically conservative. Party and Ideology ■Democrat Other •Republican Party 50% 16% 34% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% •Very liberal L.,Somewhat liberal In between/Unsure L Somewhat conservative •Very conservative � Y . Ideology 7% ' 33' 9% 17% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Thirty-nine percent are categorized as very reliable voters,but,as mentioned above,that varies widely depending on the age segment. Interestingly,very reliable voters are no more likely to be Republicans than unreliable voters. The same applies to Democrats. The only turnout-related difference to party is that less likely voters tend to be non-partisan. This indicates that there will not generally be substantial differences in the partisan composition of the electorate in low and high turnout elections. The same is true for ideology. The research indicates that both liberals and conservatives turn out in proportional numbers regardless of the type of election. Fifty-nine percent have registered to vote since 2000,indicating a sizeable degree of recent registration activity and transiency. Again,longtime voters are no more conservative or liberal than their more recently registered counterparts.However,we do find that the percentage of voters registering as Democrats has trended downwards in recent years. Republicans have not filled the gap,instead the newer registrants have tended towards non-partisanship. In the February primary,34% of the active electorate voted by mail. While older and more long time registrants voted by mail in greater numbers,there were no partisan or ideological differences. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 8 Geography The map below shows the approximate location of each respondent. The 4th and 5th City Council Districts dominate the landscape of city politics. Among active voters,the two Districts combine for 46% of the electorate and overshadow under-represented Districts like the 1st and 2nd (especially) and the 3rd and 6th. The 4th District is a little more affluent than the balance of the city. Voters here may be slightly more conservative and tend to vote by mail more often. Other than those differences,the voters of the 4th District look demographically similar those in the rest of San Bernardino. Those in the 5th District,although not more conservative than the overall electorate, certainly lean less Democratic. The percentage of Democrats in the 5th is only 40%compared to 53%in the balance of the city. Like the 4th,it is more affluent and voters here tend to more often be in their prime earning years (between 34 and 64 years old). The 7th District is another one that is larger than average. It accounts for 19% of the registrants and its political power is enhanced in low turnout elections because nearly half the voters here are categorized as very reliable. One reason for this is that half the voters here are over the age of 54. Republicans draw even with Democrats in the 7th. k,,',,, 0 00 0 0o 0 °00° \ ° a 0,:%o o The 6th District is home to 10% :\,,,,,,°to�, ° 4. 0 ° ° s of the city's active electorate. s °' 407 ^� o D ° „o,g o ° .0 06. This is a low income,liberal ° �o,' o -,o,° °°8 ;.° • COO O o • O O Democratic stronghold. Seventy- °° w "'' 0" °e 0,q 0 Meow/ 0 0` s:0 0-9204 o three percent here are Democrats, a o aO .'.0p 0 in 8 °J° ° ® °O, °°f 0 1 0osa • O and Republicans account for a 0°may 4i 81 °';;,0st 00°t 0 L••*.• ° go L. mere 19% of the voters. Turnout t , 0 a 04,°e o° ° •• z • .$ •Hiahlend A & 0 8 -, I. Hig5den&A,,°� 33C likelihood is soft in the 6th o 0 ° 0 0 0 ,, 0 0 a 0� °9234fi..0°9 o f .. n ,� o DistrDistrict as 33% of the voters here %944'408D0 0'' 0 Cb° °. m sQom ict, E Base Line Rd ine 5t ° 5 ° ,• .� ° ..a Line --.MOyilan." are in the unreliable category. o °. °o o ° °m0 °8 ° •0 ° 0.R a oo • 0 • 0 stn s ° 0 •'240 stns E 3r.. •=9237fi eeo o Because the remaining districts a ' ' ,.A Rialto ,;1..oveo0 0 92410° o ° °e 0rdino m 92408 are small,their make-up is .Juldl sr E Mill St . difficult to analyze. The 3rd (9%), v & °• 1st(8%) and 2nd (7%) combine to ° 2 m 92324 plan �0 0 Redlands W LugorMa Ave comprise less than a quarter of the ' Ira!�Y Bhp 4 8°• San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 9 C !! electorate. All three Districts tend to be in low to middle income areas. The 1st is apparently an ultra-low income enclave where more than 60% earn less than$40,000 annually. It is also fairly liberal and only 18%in the 1St are members of the GOP. Important Issues As we have seen in previous surveys,it is crime that leads the list of most important voter concerns. Thirty- five percent focus on crime and safety,and when the 15%who specifically mention gangs and graffiti are added to that,fully half the electorate say public safety is their chief local concern. An older female reports she is concerned about"the crime;people are selling drugs on the street and you can drive down the street and they are doing it right there and people are getting shot." Many verbatim responses are as graphic as that one. It is worthwhile to point out that no City Council District is immune to the crime scare. In every District,the percentage which says public safety is a number one concern is no less than 39%. However,there is a significant spike in the 7th District where a startling 60%put public safety at the top of their list. When isolating the gangs and graffiti problem,that is more often mentioned by folks earning more than$80,000 or low income females. One last point about the crime epidemic is Most Important Issue that it finds its way into other aspects of city life. The most telling finding here is that 26% Crime/Safety 35% of the respondents who put education at the top Gangs/Graffiti 15% of their list of important issues cite an aspect Economy/Jobs 7% of crime or violence related to education. A Education 5% Housing market/Foreclosures 5% young female says, "Violence in school,like Blight/Revitalize the city 4% high school,there's been 2 students killed Infrastructure/Streets and roads um 3% stealing cars from near high school." All told, Government/Local politics ' 3% 5% of the overall electorate labels education Immigration/Border issues 111 2% as their top concern. It is a bit more of an Gas prices/Cost of living 2% issue for females than for males. Drugs 2% Poverty/Low income families f 2% Nothing II 2% Another big issue is the economy. Seven Other 10% percent mention jobs or the local economy, Unsure 3% and concerns are a little more prevalent in 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Council District 5. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 10 r Aside from crime,the economy and education,the housing market/foreclosures is the only other issue to get to 5%. Revitalizing the City(4%), streets and roads (3%),local politics (3%) and immigration (2%) are there under the surface and swamped by the crime issue. Civic Mood San Bernardino voters are generally not in a good mood. Forty-three percent think San Bernardino is on the wrong track and 32% say so strong. With only 33%registering some enthusiasm for the City's direction (and a paltry 9% strongly saying things are headed in the right direction) the net is negative 11%. There are probably macro forces (gas prices,collapsing real estate market,poor economy and the war in Iraq) at work, but this is not a good time to be attached to the status quo in San Bernardino. On the other hand,this climate lends itself to change-oriented initiatives. Civic Mood •Wrong track,strongly LI Wrong track,somewhat __I Mixed/Unsure a Right direction,somewhat U Right direction,strongly 32% ,1 24% V^`_ r 7 9°/ (43/33) 0% 20% 40% 80% 80% 100% Republicans and non-partisans are resoundingly disenchanted with the way things are going. Slightly more than half feel things are on the wrong track(40% strongly). The problem within this segment is even worse among voters who are less than very reliable and those in Council District 4. Although Democrats are less down in the dumps regarding the city's direction,it is only an even split for them: 36% say things are heading in the right direction and 36%believe San Bernardino is on the wrong track. Even among Democrats,those with negative opinions display far more intensity than voters who are upbeat. Perceptions of City Finances A large majority of voters (69%) recognize that there are varying degrees of financial problems at the city. Thirty-five percent say that San Bernardino has money for services but recognize that it is "tight",and 25% say the city does not have the money for services but can"get by."Nine percent say bankruptcy is a possibility. While such numbers do not indicate that a crisis mentality pervades the electorate,voters generally do not believe the city is flush with cash. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 11 pa L C Perceptions of City Finances ism The city has more than enough moneyto provide services 1.1.11 13% rs r. The city has the money to provide services,but it is tight 1 35% 69%Recognize The city does not have the money to provide services,but can —a financial get by :. a 25% problem .�. The city does not have the money to provide services,and 9% could go bankrupt Unsure 118% 0% 20% 40% Opinions Related to Tax Increases Fundamentally,San Bernardino voters are not so opposed to taxes that such measures are beyond hope of passage. Only 37% oppose tax increases under any circumstance,although 29% are strong opposed. Sixty- one percent would entertain a tax increase. Opinions Related to Tax Increases •Agree,strongly Agree,somewhat Unsure J Disagree,somewhat ®Disagree,strongly 37%Oppose tax increases 60%Open tortax increases "I would never vote to increase local taxes no 29% � 4% ‘ 4.115$.5.z.; 33% matter what the money would be used for." 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% This is extremely positive for those wishing to gain approval for tapping into new funding sources. The large contingent of conservatives in town could suggest that a tax increase is beyond hope,but this is not the case. San Bernardino's conservatives are more of the social variety rather than the fiscal variety. Conservatives here are more inclined to agree with the anti-tax sentiment than liberals and moderates are. But even though 44%in the conservative segment say they would never vote for a tax increase, 55% disagree. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 12 Opinions Related to Tax Increases by Ideology m.. 100% •Disagree,strongly 33% 28% 80% 40% 33/0 J Disagree,somewhat �. y: 60% 27% ■ 27% 30% 1 Unsure 40% 9% { _t Agree,somewhat "" 20% 34% 23% •Agree,strongly 0% Liberal(40%) Unsure(9%) Conservative(51%) Trust in Fiscal Decisions of Mayor and City Council Almost half(48%) of the electorate does not trust the City Council and Mayor to make the correct fiscal decisions for the taxpayers and 30%intensely distrust the elected city officials. These voters may be happy to see the city's financial matters addressed at the ballot box rather than at City Hall meetings. Slightly fewer (43%) say they trust local elected officials on taxes,but most of this sentiment is weak. Trust in the Fiscal Decisions of Mayor and City Council ■Disagree,strongly U Disagree,somewhat Unsure L Agree,somewhat U Agree,strongly 48%Distrusts Mayor& 43%Trusts Mayor& City Council Fiscal Decisions City Council Fiscal Decisions � t t "I trust the Mayor and City Council to 30% spend the city's tax dollars wisely." 10% 17/° 0% --- 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% With trust less than robust,it may be important to understand where the weakest segments lie. Republicans tend to be the least trusting group. Only 32% express some level of trust in the City Council and Mayor when it comes to fiscal matters,to which GOP members are clearly more sensitive. Trust is much higher among Democrats who are reliable or very reliable voters. This is heartening because these voters tend to be paying closer attention. Therefore the key when it comes to establishing trust is Republicans. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 13 C ..r Trust in the Fiscal Decisions of Mayor and City Council by Party 100% :...._....,:. u. .,...�.» ...:.......:,.,.x. _. 21% 17% 11% ®Agree,strongly 80% - 21% ' J Agree,somewhat 60% O%v._ .I Unsure wem 11% 21% 40% 6 d," J Disagree,somewhat 20% 32% 37% 2q/° •Disagree,strongly 0% Democrat(50%) Other(16%) Republican(34%) Should Businesses and Tourists Contribute More? Fifty-eight percent of the electorate say that local businesses and tourists should pitch in and contribute more to the community. While this is good news,the data shows that sentiment is much more solid among voters who are unreliable when it comes to casting ballots. While that is not a big problem when it comes to a high turnout election such as the November presidential is expected to be,it suggests that basing a campaign on "getting a fair share"from businesses is going to run into problems in lower turnout elections. Further,here we find that conservatives who vote reliably do not really share the sentiment,as 53%disagree with the premise that business and tourists should contribute more. Appeals along these lines,therefore, ought to be targeted to less conservative segments of the electorate. Should Businesses and Tourists Contribute More? •Disagree,strongly u Disagree,somewhat Unsure a Agree,somewhat ®Agree,strongly 33%Disagree 58%Agree on Contributing More on Contributing More 1 t "San Bernardino businesses and tourists 17% n 9% 32% ought to contribute more to the community" Wi 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Awareness of Tax Increase Discussion Potential November tax measures are very much under the radar right now,as 80% are not aware of the discussion related to upcoming local revenue measures. Awareness is much lower among unreliable voters. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 14 General Viability of the Utility User Tax Not surprisingly,the most well-received tax measures are the ones in which the burden falls on entities other than the voters themselves. The Utility User Tax on the city of Riverside is the most popular. In a general test(where all the other taxes have an equal chance of being on the ballot),more than half would support such a measure and support increases to 74%after hearing debate on the issue. Additionally,most of the support is strong,so with a modest campaign to explain the measure,the Utility User Tax looks like an easy winner, even if two or three other tax measures are on the ballot alongside it. In fact,the data show that the Utility User Tax performs better when it is contrasted with other more onerous measures. Utility User Tax for the City of Riverside Initial&Final Vote +r •No,definitely U No,probably Unsure Li Yes,probably •Yes,definitely pot 35%Vote No 46%Vote Yes Utility User Tax ; . ;. Initial Solo Test i 19% '.. 28%Vote No 52%Vote Yes .r. Utility User Tax � � 20% � { `�` 31% Initial General Test 17/ '°' 25%Vote No 65%Vote Yes Utility User Tax 16% ra; 10% 43% Final Solo Test 1 20%Vote No 74%Vote Yes i Utility User Tax 11% 6% ®� 46% Final General Test 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% General Viability of the Quarry Tax The Quarry Tax is reasonably well-received,with 49% saying that they would vote for it in the general test alongside the other tax measures. However,the results when it is alone on the ballot are significantly less enthusiastic. Only 42% say they are voting`yes'when it is all alone on the ballot and 42% are voting`no.' This suggests the Quarry Tax looks much better in comparison to other measures. Support increases after respondents hear the debate surrounding the measure in situations where it is running solo on the ballot and in situations where it is grouped with other measures. It looks like a vigorous campaign in favor of the measure will get the Quarry Tax over 50%whether it is the only measure on the ballot or not. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 15 r . C Quarry Tax Initial&Final Vote ,i., •No,definitely U No,probably Unsure U Yes,probably ®Yes,definitely 42%Vote No 42%Vote Yes I I Quarry Tax 25% 16% 16% r Initial Solo Test 34%Vote No 49%Vote Yes r r r t Quarry Tax 18% �+. 17% 25% Initial General Test ""' 36%Vote No 53%Vote Yes r r I I Quarry Tax 19% 1 11% 24196 29% - Final Solo Test hi 36%Vote No �■ 54%Vote Yes Quarry Tax r_ l.._ , , ... ., _,_ Pi 21% 10% Z3% 31 Final General Test i t —- — 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% General Viability of the Warehouse Tax In the general test,the Warehouse Tax initially has more opposition (46%) than support(38%). However, when it is all alone on the ballot the Warehouse Tax does better: 42% say they would vote`yes'and 40% would vote`no.'After exposure to arguments contained in a debate question,respondents react favorably and support increases to the point where the electorate is evenly divided when the measure is lumped in with the other measures. The post-debate Warehouse Tax actually gets to 50%when it is isolated. Based on these results,we initially place the Warehouse Tax in the"iffy"category,though it would do better when it is the only measure on the ballot. Warehouse Tax Initial&Final Vote •No,definitely U,No,probably I Unsure Li Yes,probably ®Yes,definitely 40%Vote No I 42%Vote Yes WIniatial Solo rehouse Test Tax I r r 20% P% 17% ,.. „.,.s; 15% 46%Vote No 38%Vote Yes Warehouse Tax r r r 16% Initial General Test 37%Vote No 50%Vote Yes Warehouse Tax r r 20/ 17% ;° 13% .» 26% Final Solo Test . 45%Vote No 46%Vote Yes r Warehouse Tax r r .„ 26% fir. .,: ( . 9% f---_._'Zi.% "' 25% Anal General Test 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 16 General Viability of the Transient Lodging Tax Increase The Transient Lodging Tax (1'LT)is the other measure we tested which is on the pass/fail cusp. Forty-seven percent would vote`yes'on the measure and an equal percentage would vote `no'in the general test. The results are about the same when the TLT is the only measure on the ballot. Our presentation of the campaign debate between supporters and opponents tends to help opponents when the TLT is one of many measures on the ballot. The percentage voting`no'rises to 50%while support remains static. However, when the TLT is the only measure voters are reacting to,it gets to exactly 50% support after the campaign debate. Like the Warehouse Tax,it is more palatable when it is the only measure on the ballot. Transient Lodging Tax Initial&Final Vote •No,definitely U No,probably Unsure LI Yes,probably ®Yes,definitely too 50%Vote No 45%Vote Yes Transient Lodging Tax 28% % 22% 23% Initial Solo Test " 47%Vote No 47%Vote Yes Transient Lodging Tax 1 VIC' I Initial General Test 29% 6% 22% 25% 44%Vote No 50%Vote Yes Transient Lodging Tax Final Solo Test 30% 6% 37% ' " 50%Vote No 46%Vote Yes Transient Lodging Tax "" 32% IS% 4% 16% 30% Final GeneralTest 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% General Viability of the 911 Communications Tax The 911 Communications Tax is the most unpopular of the five measures,based on the general test. Since it is the only tax to be paid by the voters themselves,this is not shocking. Alongside other measures,the antipathy towards it is notably widespread,as 68%would vote against it and 51%would definitely vote against it. This stays the same after the debate is heard. Things get a little better for the 911 Communications Tax when it is the only measure on the ballot,but that is not saying much: opposition to it is still over 50%. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 17 911 Communications Tax Initial&Final Vote •No,definitely No,probably I Unsure U Yes,probably U Yes,definitely 58%Vote No 32%Vote Yes 911 Communications Tax 42% t > 10% 16% Initial Solo Test 68%Vote No 27%Vote Yes 911 Communications Tax' I y.. Initial General Test 51% �.V% 6% �_�`` 14% 51%Vote No 39%Vote Yes 911 Communications Tax , 43% 'VA 10% 20% .. Final Solo Test xy 65%Vote No 29%Vote Yes 911 Communications ' r 48% £ ,,, 17% Final General Test 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Effect of Multiple Tax Measures Being on the Ballot Based on the general tests it is clear that the Utility User Tax and the Quarry Tax are good candidates for the November ballot. Despite the knowledge that the 911 Communications Tax as tested would lose if placed on the ballot,an interesting finding must be reported. It is apparent from careful analysis of the results that the 911 Tax would have the effect of pushing support for the remaining taxes a little higher. The inference is that the other tax measures look better in comparison to the 911 Tax. Another insight from the survey is that the sheer number of tax measures on the ballot is not a significant factor which determines how much support or opposition any one measure receives. That is,whether there is one tax or five taxes on the ballot,each tax gets roughly the same amount of`yes'and`no'votes. The one possible exception to this is the Quarry Tax. It appears to do slightly worse when it is alone on the ballot, and there is evidence to suggest that it might do better when it has company on the ballot with other measures. Viability ofQuarry Tax When on the Ballot with the Utility Tax As discussed above,the data show that the Quarry Tax continues to be viable with other measures on the ballot. This is particularly true when it is paired with the Utility Tax. Neither suffers when the other is on the ballot,and,on the contrary,both tax measures seem to perform better together. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 18 Quarry Tax Vote when it precedes Utility Tax L ■No,definitely to No,probably i_;Unsure u Yes,probably •Yes,definitely 27%Vote No 54%Vote Yes Quarry Tax Vote 14% 19% 29% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Utility Tax Vote when it precedes Quarry Tax •No,definitely ti No,probably Unsure L Yes,probably U Yes,definitely 24%Vote No 55%Vote Yes i Utility Tax Vote 14% w 21% 34% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Viability of the Warehouse Tax when on the Ballot with the Utility and Quarry Taxes Analysis shows that putting the Warehouse Tax on the ballot with the Utility and Quarry Taxes will not boost its prospects. Although having all three measures on the ballot will probably not hurt the Warehouse Tax either,the data shows that is a possibility. When respondents hear about the Utility and Quarry Taxes along with the Warehouse Tax,45%line up against the tax and 33% support it in the first Warehouse Tax test. Still simulating all three measures on the ballot,opposition increases to 51%after the Warehouse Tax campaign debate. The fact that opposition to the Warehouse Tax exceeds 50%is a sure sign that it will be tough to pass—in its current form—when it is on the ballot with the Utility and Quarry Taxes. As noted earlier,the Quarry Tax generally does better when paired with other taxes, so adding the Warehouse Tax to the mix would not hurt its prospects. Placing the Warehouse Tax on the ballot will probably help boost the number of`yes'votes for the Quarry Tax. The same can be said for the Utility User Tax. San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 19 C Viability of the Transient Lodging Tax when on the Ballot with the Utility and Quarry Taxes The TLT is one of those taxes that performs significantly worse when compared to other popular taxes. In this case`no'votes are at 51%when it is on the ballot with the UUT and the Quarry Tax and that increases to 58% after the campaign debate. The TLT is a long shot at best when placed alongside the two most popular taxes. As noted earlier,the Quarry Tax generally does better when paired with other taxes,so adding the Transient Lodging Tax to the mix would not hurt its prospects. The same can be said for the Utility User Tax. Viability of all Four Tax Measures when on the Ballot Together As should be expected in view of the previous analysis,the TLT and Warehouse Taxes fare worse when they are both on the ballot along with the Quarry Tax and UUT. On the other hand,the popular taxes perform well,as they benefit from comparisons to the TLT and Warehouse Taxes. Placing the 911 Communications Tax on the Ballot to Increase Support for the Warehouse Tax or TLT Based on the idea that,in comparison to the 911 Tax,the TLT and the Warehouse Tax might be acceptable, we analyzed this strategy as well. We found no support for putting the 911 Tax on alone with the Warehouse Tax. That would likely lead to two losses. However,the survey provides some evidence that pairing the 911 Tax with the TLT Tax would push the TLT Tax over the finish line. The results we have are inconclusive, but they do indicate that placing the 911 Tax alongside the TLT would help the TLT and that the TLT would likely perform with the 911 Tax on the ballot rather if it were solo on the ballot. The problem with 911/TLT scenario is that it only"works"when just those two measures are on the ballot. A third measure would doom the less popular TLT. So this is a risky"all-or-nothing"proposition. General Considerations The main factor driving support and opposition to these tax measures is basic sentiment on taxes in general. Those who say they would never vote for a tax increase no matter what it would be used for,usually stick to their guns,while the same is usually the case for those who disagree with the anti-tax sentiment. Since,as noted above,the bulk of San Bernardino's active electorate is not hostile to tax increases,this is a very positive fording for proponents of these measures. One key,therefore,to passing these taxes at the 50%level is to ensure that voters who are somewhat supportive of taxes eventually vote`yes'on the measures in San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 20 C question. Making the tax or taxes palatable to the somewhat supportive and undecided segments is paramount. Another variable which tends to regularly pop up as a vote driver is whether or not businesses and tourists should contribute more to the community. Again,this is a good sign because most voters agree that more contributions should be made. As long as this sentiment holds,the turnout mix is not decidedly conservative, and the taxes are directed at visitors and businesses,those types of measures can be considered for the ballot. Note that this is not quite the same as saying that the message that businesses and visitors ought to be making greater contributions to the community will be the one to use in a campaign. Rather,the insight here is that the sentiment exists and is a key factor in these sorts of campaigns. The final factor that comes up is ideology. Conservatives (and Republicans)will tend to vote against these taxes and perhaps the key insight here is to stay away from situations where the election scenario may favor conservatives, such as highly charged conservative issues. Also, securing the local Republican Party's endorsement or the endorsement of respected GOP messengers will be helpful. Note that other variables such as trust in the City Council and the Mayor,awareness of the discussion about tax measures,important issues like crime,and even the financial health of the city do not tend to be vote determinative. Exploring these issues further in a campaign poll is warranted,but, for now,these issues do not figure heavily into how voters are evaluating these measures. Recommendations With the Utility User Tax and the Quarry Tax both in good shape,the question is whether the City would rather take the"two in the hand"or instead pursue the Transient Lodging Tax increase"in the bush." If the TLT is placed on the ballot,the City should strongly consider placing the 911 Communications Tax on the ballot as well. There is very little hope of passing all the tax measures,but it would serve as an"argument"in favor of the TLT. Aside from the 911 Tax,the Warehouse Tax is the"odd man out." It probably will not produce enough revenue to displace both the UUT and the Quarry Tax on the ballot and pairing it with the TLT will not make it or the TLT's passage any more likely. • Safe approach:Utility User Tax and Quarry Tax only • Risky approach:Transient Lodging Tax increase alone • Somewhat less risky approach:TLT increase plus the 911 Communications Tax San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 21 San Bernardino Taxes n=506 Listed Active Voters June 10-12,2008 Margin of Sampling Error+/-4.4% Weighted on Age Hello is there? Hi this is with Competitive Edge Research,a national polling firm and we're calling the good folks of San Bernardino to ask your opinion on local issues. We are not selling anything. Most people find it interesting and all your answers will be kept strictly confidential. Please let me begin by asking. . . Q1. Do you think things in San Bernardino are moving in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction,strongly 8.9 Right Direction,somewhat 23.5 Wrong Track, somewhat 11.2 Wrong Track, strongly 32.2 Mixed (Not Read) 7.9 Unsure (Not Read) 15.9 Refused (Not Read) 0.4 Net Direction -11.0 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 22 Q2. Thinking just about San Bernardino,which issue concerns you most? Crime/Safety 34.9 Gangs/Graffiti 14.7 Economy/Jobs 7.4 Education 5.3 Housing market/Foreclosures 4.6 Blight/Revitalize the city 3.5 Infrastructure/Streets and roads 3.3 Government/Local politics 2.7 Immigration/Border issues 2.5 Gas prices/Cost of living 2.0 Drugs 1.8 Poverty/Low income families 1.8 City budget issues/Finances 1.5 Traffic congestion 1.0 Homeless 1.0 Growth/Development 1.0 Nothing 2.3 Other 6.2 Unsure 2.7 Q3. Which of the following statements about the City's finances comes closest to your opinion . . . (Statements were rotated) The city has the money to provide services,but it is tight 35.2 The city does not have the money to provide services,but can get by 25.2 The city has more than enough money to provide services 12.9 The city does not have the money to provide services,and could go 9.1 bankrupt Unsure (Not Read) 17.7 And please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statements... (Q4-„Q6 were randomized) Q4. "I would never vote to increase local taxes no matter what the money would be used for." Agree,Strongly 28.7 Agree,Somewhat 8.1 Disagree,Somewhat 27.2 Disagree,Strongly 33.4 Unsure (Not Read) 2.6 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 23 Q5. "I trust the Mayor and City Council to spend the city's tax dollars wisely." Agree,Strongly 16.8 Agree,Somewhat 26.0 Disagree,Somewhat 17.7 Disagree,Strongly 29.6 Unsure (Not Read) 10.0 Q6. "San Bernardino businesses and tourists ought to contribute more to the community." Agree,Strongly 32.4 Agree,Somewhat 25.6 Disagree,Somewhat 16.2 Disagree,Strongly 16.8 Unsure (Not Read) 9.0 Q7. Some people have discussed placing one or more City of San Bernardino tax revenue measures on the local ballot. Are you aware or unaware that this has been discussed? Aware 19.5 Unaware 78.4 Unsure (Not Read) 2.1 Now I would like to ask you about some tax measures that may appear on the November ballot. One measure. . . (Measures were randomized) Q8. That is referred to as the Warehouse Tax reads: "Shall an ordinance be adopted to establish a business license tax initially in the amount of three and one-half cents per square foot of gross floor area,with an annual adjustment by the consumer price index,but not to exceed five cents per square foot for distribution center businesses located within the City for the purpose of raising revenue to defray the costs of providing City services and supplement the City's General Fund?"If the election were held today,would you vote"yes"or"no"on this ballot measure? Yes,Definitely 21.0 Yes,Probably 16.9 No,Probably 20.5 No,Definitely 25.7 Unsure (Not Read) 15.9 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 24 Q9. Now let me read you a brief debate between supporters and opponents of the Warehouse Tax measure.When I finish,please tell me how you would vote on the measure. Supporters say: The Warehouse Tax would generate about$300,000 per year for the city. This money will help fund top priority services like public safety and street repairs. The rate is fair to the warehouses and about the same as the rates in other nearby cities. We're not trying to balance our budget on the backs of the warehouses,but high truck traffic from the warehouses tears up our local streets. They need to pay their fair share but they currently pay the city only a nominal fee. Opponents say: Distribution centers had to pay millions of dollars "up front" for street,utility and other public infrastructure improvements before they could operate their business in San Bernardino. The proposed new tax would hurt businesses that provide hundreds of jobs and it would put those businesses at a competitive disadvantage. Now that you have heard more information on the Warehouse Tax,if the election were held today,would you vote"yes"or"no"on this ballot measure? Yes,Definitely 25.5 Yes,Probably 21.1 No,Probably 18.8 No,Definitely 25.9 Unsure (Not Read) 8.6 In addition,another measure which may be on the ballot. . . Q10. Would increase the Transient Lodging Tax. It reads: "In order to provide additional funding for public safety,street and park maintenance,and other services for San Bernardino residents,shall the City's tax on hotel occupancies,also known as a`Bed Tax",collected by hotels from tourists and all hotel guests,be increased from 10%to 12% of the daily room charge?"If the election were held today,would you vote"yes" or"no"on this ballot measure? Yes,Definitely 24.5 Yes,Probably 22.1 No,Probably 17.5 No,Definitely 29.4 Unsure (Not Read) 6.6 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 25 C Q11. Now let me read you a brief debate between supporters and opponents of the Transient Lodging Tax increase measure.When I finish,please tell me how you would vote on the measure. Supporters say: This existing tax is only paid by tourists who rent hotel rooms in our city;San Bernardino residents will NOT pay this tax. The tax simply charges hotel guests a fair share for the services they receive from the community during their visit. A small room tax increase of only 2 percent will not hurt local hotel owners,and the overall tax rate is similar to neighboring cities. Revenue from the tax increase would help to pay for facilities used by visitors like parks and roads. Opponents say: This tax will put San Bernardino's hotels at a disadvantage compared to hotels in other cities. Visitors will be discouraged from coming because they can stay in nearby cities for less. In a recession,now is not the time for a tax increase. Our city's hotel industry has been growing and a new tax will hurt this important part of our local economy. Now that you have heard more information on the Transient Lodging Tax,if the election were held today, would you vote"yes"or"no"on this ballot measure? Yes,Definitely 30.3 Yes,Probably 15.6 No,Probably 18.0 No,Definitely 31.8 Unsure (Not Read) 4.4 In addition,another measure which may be on the ballot. . . Q12. Would expand the current Utility User Tax to the City of Riverside's property. It reads: "Shall the city of Riverside's exemption from paying utility taxes on the water wells it operates in the City of San Bernardino be removed and replaced with the same utility tax rate paid by City residents?"If the election were held today,would you vote"yes" or"no"on this ballot measure? Yes,Definitely 31.1 Yes,Probably 21.3 No,Probably 11.0 No,Definitely 16.7 Unsure Not Read) 19.9 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 26 C Q13. Now let me read you a brief debate between supporters and opponents of the Utility User Tax to the City of Riverside's property measure.When I finish,please tell me how you would vote on the measure. Supporters say: Riverside residents get most of their water from wells located in San Bernardino,but Riverside pays no utility tax on the electricity it uses to pump that water. Riverside should pay the tax just like everyone else. Removing Riverside's exemption will provide about$100,000 per year in new revenue to fund police, firefighters,street repairs and park maintenance in San Bernardino. Opponents say: That this measure will raise utility taxes on Riverside residents,many of whom live on fixed incomes,during difficult economic times. The City of Riverside has historic water rights in San Bernardino's ground water basin and Riverside should not be taxed to extract water to which they have legal rights. Now that you have heard more information on the Utility User Tax to the City of Riverside's property measure,if the election were held today,would you vote"yes" or"no"on this ballot measure? Yes,Definitely 46.0 Yes,Probably 27.4 No,Probably 9.6 No,Definitely 10.9 Unsure (Not Read) 6.1 In addition,another measure which may be on the ballot. . . Q14. Is called the 911 Communications Tax. It reads: "In order to fund important City services,including the City's emergency communications center,and to expand services to answer 911 telephone calls made from cell phones in San Bernardino,should an ordinance be adopted to impose a 911 communications tax of$1.50 per telephone line per month,with exemptions for lifeline customers, and annually increasing at a rate not to exceed the Consumer Price Index?"If the election were held today,would you vote"yes" or"no"on this ballot measure? Yes,Definitely 14.2 Yes,Probably 12.5 No,Probably 16.5 No,Definitely 50.5 Unsure (Not Read) 6.2 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 27 rr Q15. Now let me read you a brief debate between supporters and opponents of the 911 Communications Tax measure.When I finish,please tell me how you would vote on the measure. Supporters say: 911 is a vital public service and it needs to be improved. If you make a 911 cell phone call it gets answered by the California Highway Patrol,not the San Bernardino Police Department.That can result in critical response delays.The 911 communications tax will raise about 4 million dollars per year and allow the Police Department to answer all 911 calls directly,and hire more 911 dispatchers. The 911 tax is fair;you only pay for each phone line that you have. Opponents say: 911 is a basic public safety service that should be paid with our existing tax dollars. San Bernardino voters passed the Measure Z sales tax only two years ago and they should be using those funds instead. Besides,aren't we paying enough in taxes already? Now that you have heard more information about the 911 Communications Tax,if the election were held today,would you vote"yes" or"no"on this ballot measure? Yes,Definitely 17.0 Yes,Probably 12.2 No,Probably 16.8 No,Definitely 48.2 Unsure (Not Read) 5.8 In addition,another measure which may be on the ballot. . . Q16. Would establish a business license tax for quarries located in the city. It reads: "Should an Ordinance be adopted to establish a business license tax,in the amount of 18 cents per ton on the processing and/or extraction of rock,sand,and gravel within the City,with annual adjustments, for commercial businesses located within the City for the purpose of raising revenue to support the costs of providing City services and supplement the City's General Fund?"If the election were held today, would you vote"yes"or"no" on this ballot measure? 1 Yes,Definitely 25.2 Yes,Probably 24.1 No,Probably 16.2 No,Definitely 17.8 Unsure (Not Read) 16.8 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 28 Q17. Now let me read you a brief debate between supporters and opponents of the Quarry Tax measure. When I finish,please tell me how you would vote on the measure. Supporters say: One loaded mining truck causes the equivalent wear on to the street of 10,000 automobiles. Our streets and roads are already in need of repair,and these trucks make it worse.Mining activities create dust and noise,which are environmental health issues. This tax needs to be implemented to help cover the costs of road maintenance,infrastructure repairs,and environmental monitoring. Opponents say: Mining activities in San Bernardino bring jobs and sales tax revenue to the city. We will lose these jobs and tax revenue if mining companies relocate to a city where they will not have to pay a quarry tax. Now that you have heard more information about the Quarry Tax,if the election were held today,would you vote"yes"or"no"on this ballot measure? Yes,Definitely 30.8 Yes,Probably 23.2 No,Probably 15.5 No,Definitely 20.9 Unsure Not Read) 9.6 Thanks.Now I have just a f e w demographic questions to make sure we have a representative sample. . . Q18. When it comes to social issues and politics do you consider yourself to be . . . Very liberal 6.9 Somewhat liberal 32.6 Somewhat conservative or 33.9 Very conservative 16.5 Somewhere in between (Not read) 4.9 Unsure (Not read) 3.6 Refused (Not Read) 1.7 Q19. Please stop me when I reach your general age category. Is it. . . 18 to 24 7.5 25 to 34 13.2 35 to 44 14.0 45 to 54 23.0 55 to 64 17.9 65 to 74 15.4 75 and over 9.2 Q20. And were you born in the United States or not? Yes 90.9 No 9.1 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 29 L Q21. And please stop me when I reach the category closest to your household's total annual income. . . Under$20,000 12.5 $20 to 40,000 19.7 $40 to 60,000 19.5 $60 to 80,000 18.6 $80 to 100,000 8.9 $100,000 to$150,000 7.6 Over$150,000 4.1 Refused (Not Read) 9.1 Thanks for your time and your opinion counts,goodbye. 22. GENDER(BY OBSERVATION) Male 41.6 Female 58.4 23. PARTY (FROM SAMPLE) Republican 34.4 Democrat 49.9 Other 15.7 24. TURNOUT HISTORY(FROM SAMPLE) Unreliable/New 21.0 Reliable 40.5 Very reliable 38.5 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 30 C 25. CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT (FROM SAMPLE) 0 0 1st 7.5 2nd 7.2 3rd 9.4 4th 24.2 5th 22.0 6th 10.3 7th 19.4 26. DA'Z'E OF REGISTRATION (FROM SAMPLE) 2006 to Present 21.8 2004 to 2005 18.9 2000 to 2003 18.5 1990 to 1999 23.0 Before 1990 17.8 27. VOTED BY MAIL IN LAST ELECTION (NROM SAMPLE) Yes 34.0 No 66.0 San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 31 NOTES TO THE CROSSTABULATIONS Crosstabulations of data are simply comparisons of how respondents to one question answered a separate question or rated in a different category. In statistical terms,crosstabulations attempt to determine whether responses to two different,but possibly related,questions are independent of, or dependent on,one another. The analyst's job is to determine which relationships are significant and then ascertain the underlying causes for those occurrences Cells of data should always be compared first with the corresponding totals in the far right column and then compared among the other percentages in the original column. For instance,in the first table on page 1 of the crosstabulations,we compare the demographic variables age and gender with the respondents'party, turnout history,and voted by mail in last election. Among other things,the table shows that 12%of the respondents who are 18 to 34 years old are very reliable voters. This is compared to the row total on the right which shows that 39%of all respondents are very reliable voters. One can conclude that the younger respondents have a lower likelihood of voting than what would normally be expected for all respondents in this study. In other words,there may be some cause for the occurrence of a lower number of 18 to 34 year olds who have a high turnout history. One should be careful to avoid making the mistake of inferring that the 12%pertains to how many of the respondents who have high turnout likelihood are between 18 to 34 years old. The tables only show how the variable in the banner(top),or independent variable,relates to the variable in the stub (side),or dependent variable. In addition to sampling error (see Limitations) relating to the size of the sample,sampling error also relates to the percentage breakdowns in each variable. Variables which have a 50% "yes," 50% "no" breakdown contain the maximum amount of sampling error. The table below shows the maximum sampling error at the different percentages of response for some segment sizes. Response Sub-Sample Sub-Sample Sub-Sample Percentages = 50 = 150 = 350 10 or 90% 8% 5% 3% 20 or 80% 11% 6% 4% 30 or 70% 13% 7% 4% 40 or 60% 14% 8% 5% 50% 14% 8% 5.2% San Bernardino Tax Measures Poll 32 * * * uP * * * up * * Up 1_ 7@ g g S $ § $ 7@ I 1! 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Crime/Safety (34.9%) All of the killings; I don't know everything All the crime,parolees and gangs Crime and gas; crime and gas are too high Crime and low-end businesses like 99 cent stores and Laundromats;you know businesses that are not very nice Crime and no jobs;people live here because the rent is cheap and the people who live here are on welfare and the percentage of people on welfare is forty percent Crime is a problem;it's kind of spotty you know one neighborhood is nice and then the next is all run down Crime is the main factor in San Bernardino Crime rate;it's kind of high Crime rate;it tends to be high Crime rate;kids are killing each other;gangs are growing Crime;a lot of crime and riff-raff Crime;a lot of crime is going on Crime; all over crime;it is everywhere;and graffiti Crime; all the crackheads breaking into the houses; drugs Crime;all these boys doing what they want to do;it seems to me they have no control over them Crime; crime and graffiti;the deterioration of the neighborhoods Crime; crime rate;gangs Crime; every night somebody's getting killed Crime;every time you pick up paper someone has been shot; especially young people Crime;gangs Crime;having grown up here things have changed;the city has changed;coming back to San Bernardino from a small town my perception is that crime has increased Crime;how bad our neighborhood has become; the police don't take care of our neighborhoods Crime;how to prevent it or keep it from happening Crime; I'm concerned about it increasing Crime; I do not like it Crime; I don't feel safe based on what I've seen on the news; there was a shooting just last week Crime; I don't like the way it's handled;they are giving out too many licenses to people that should not get them Crime; I had two cars stolen five years ago Crime; I read it in the paper that they are a lot of killings and gangs Crime; I think that someone was murdered Crime;I think that there is a lot of it;in the last seventeen or eighteen years in my area it has gotten worse Crime; I think there's an excessive amount of drugs Crime; I think there's too much of it Crime; I think there is too much crime Crime; I think there is too much of it Crime; I wish that we could stop it Crime; I would like to see it go down some Crime;it's excessive and frightening for the people Appendix A 1 Crime;it's getting better;but we still have the gangs Crime;it's gotten bad in the last years Crime;it's increased;it is not safe to be walking around at night or for the kids to play in our own neighborhoods Crime;it's increasing Crime;it's just too high some neighborhood you can't go into after dark and some downtown areas are very rundown Crime;it's now spreading up to the north end of town; to vacant property and vacant homes;it's deteriorating the city Crime;it's out of control as far as murder is concerned Crime;it's running rampant Crime;it's too high Crime;it is everywhere and it does not let up Crime;it seems to be everywhere;you can blame the economy but it is always there; there are gangs and burglaries Crime;its rampant Crime;killing; there is a lot of killing in San Bernardino Crime;maybe the punishments are not fitting the crimes; I got my car broken into twice in San Bernardino; once they even had the guy's license plate number and nothing happened;they did not do anything about it Crime;nuisance crime like graffiti Crime; other cities use San Bernardino as a dumping ground and they are pushing crime in here Crime; teenagers are getting wrapped up into it Crime; that we have so much of it Crime; the amount of it Crime; the crime rate is terrible here Crime;the escalation of it Crime; the increase in violent crimes Crime;the murder rate is high for a city of our size; there are not enough activities for children in the area Crime;the police aren't doing a damn thing about it Crime;the reduction of crime and graffiti in the community Crime;the rising crime Crime;the shootings in my community Crime; the statistics for crime are up;violent crime is up for the elderly people as well and I am a retired railroad employee that is concerned about the violent crime rate Crime; the streets are not safe;homeless everywhere; and I just recently had my house broken into Crime; the vandalism and graffiti Crime; there's a lot of it Crime; there's just never enough money to fund hiring more police officers to stop our increasing crime rate Crime; there's just too much of it going on;it's not a very safe town Crime;there's too much of it;the neighborhoods here aren't good and I just don't feel safe in these sketchy neighborhoods Crime;there are a lot of hookers and meth Crime; there are not enough police officers for it Crime; there doesn't seem to be any way to control it Appendix A 2 Crime; there has been a lot more shootings lately Crime; there is a fairly high crime rate Crime; there is a lot of crime in the city Crime;there is a lot of it Crime;there is a lot of killing going on Crime;there is too much of it Crime; there is too much of it; I don't feel safe Crime;there needs to be less of it Crime;too many gangs and drugs Crime;too many kids getting hurt and people shooting kids;kids not going to school and not doing what they need to do Crime;too many panhandlers Crime;too many reports on violence; especially in schools; I don't feel that the kids are safe Crime;too many youth involved in crime Crime;too much crime Crime; too much crime; I think that most of it is drug related Crime;too much of it (4) Crime;too much young people fighting in the schools Crime;violent and gang crime Crime;violent crime;crimes against people;assaults Crime;we're not safe on the streets;there are murders; deaths; crime Crime;we don't have too much of a problem in our area but other areas in the city do Crime;we have a lot of pan handlers in the shopping centers and bad people and poverty Crime;well innocent victims and also people who will not work and they make babies who contribute to the poverty and the welfare office is contributing to the problem Crime;you got a lot of illegals here; I got dogs and I got bars and they still jump my fence and steal anything they want Downtown is a transient area;get them off the streets so I won't be afraid to go there at night Drinking and driving Feeling unsafe on the streets; they don't have control; there was a shooting in front of my house High crime;gang violence I'd say crimes;there's been an increase in it I'd say the crime I'd say the overall crime I'd say the violence I don't know, a lot of crime;if you cannot walk down the street without getting shot then it is pretty scary; I am elderly and I do not go outside after dark I don't like the crime there's way too much of it I would say crime; there is too much of it and not enough cops doing their job It is a dangerous place downtown and that is a concern to me Law enforcement;police take too long to respond More of safety in the crime areas Murder rate;it keeps going up Neighborhood safety; the local economy One of the things that concerns me very much is the crime;the streets; the infrastructure is in such poor shape;those are the things that come to my mind that I always think of as deteriorating; I know crime is bad everywhere Appendix A 3 Our crime is what bothers me;we seem to be having gangbanging; shootings;and robberies; some even happening in good neighborhoods People stealing;a lot of people Police;wish we had more police officers to patrol more;more firefighter;please no cuts on either Public safety; crime issues in particular there are too many Safety;high rate of violence Safety; I think it's bad when my wife can't even go outside at night Safety;it's not safe to go out in the streets it's not good Safety;more police coverage Safety; San Bernardino can be a dangerous place to live Safety; the crime rate Safety; there have been a couple of times when I have called the police department and it takes them over an hour to get here Safety; this is not a safe place to live;a lot of crime happens here Slow police response to 911 calls The burglary; I had one here about six weeks ago The cops; they are useless The crime here is scary; I don't feel safe at all and my kids don't either The crime is running rampant;the streets are not safe anymore The crime rate;it's out of hand and it is scary to go out of your door at night The crime rate;it seems like its escalating; one of the things that attracted me to move out here twelve years ago was the low crime rate;lack of graffiti and all of that has changed;it shouldn't be as bad as it is now The crime rate;it seems there's a lot of violence The crime; I think it comes from the police department they do a lot of the harassing The crime; I wish there was less of it The crime;it's out of control The crime;it has gone up The crime;it is up about six or seven percent from last year The crime;it seems like they are letting a lot of people out of jail and not watching them The crime;its everywhere in San Bernardino The crime;its seems like all the criminals get dumped here or they stay here The crime;people are selling drugs on the street and you can drive down the street and they are doing it right there and people are getting shot The crime;the level is too high and the graffiti is really bad The crime;the murders on the Westside The crime; there is a high rate of crime and there have been a lot of murders lately The crime; there is just a lot of crime in San Bernardino The crime; there is too much crime and it does not make it appealing for people to live here in San Bernardino The crime;unemployment and poverty it's all too much The crime;we need more policeman and crime should be reduced The crime;well just making sure that it doesn't get out of control The crimes; I do not like to read the papers and get a shock The criminal element that is in San Bernardino and moved in from other regions The downtown area needs more police The incident of crime;we have a high incident of crime in the city Appendix A 4 The issue that concerns me most is the crime rate and the low income housing and the kind of people that live there;it has brought a lot of crime to the area The neighborhoods;they need enforcement on public awareness; there are a lot of criminals, predators and sex offenders The parolee situation is getting out of hand; I am almost scared to leave and go shopping because these homeless parolees are always asking for money and I am seeing them everywhere The police department;we have a lot of people walking the street and they are not doing anything; they make them get off the sidewalk and its total harassment The safety here; there have been a lot of murders The safety in the streets Too much crime and graffiti Too much crime;there are not enough jobs available Violence and drug abuse with like young and older people now Violence and the homicide rate;it is the highest in the country Violence; death; I don't know Violence;gang violence in our city;pedophilia Violence; I feel that it's not as safe Violence;the streets and the guns Young people; I'm afraid to go out Gangs/Graffiti (14.7%) All of the gang activity;they are killing each other All of the graffiti; the police pick up the people doing things in an area and act like it didn't happen All the graffiti and the lack of code enforcement Basically the gangs and lack of a response to them Cleaning the streets up of gang violence For one thing there are the gangs; there are just too many of them Gang activity;it's increasing on the north end Gang members;they are everywhere now Gang problem on Westside Gang related crime Gang violence (2) Gang violence and the cities falling apart Gang violence;got too bad Gang violence;homicide Gang violence; I feel that we are insecure in our streets and communities Gang violence;it's bad Gang violence;it's in isolated areas but it's very apparent Gang violence; there is a lot of it Gangbangers; there's too many and they cause a lot of trouble Gangs and crime; and it's a problem; I sit in my garage at night worrying about someone coming up the street Gangs and drugs in the community Gangs and drugs;everyone and my kids are being confronted by gang members Gangs and graffiti are not being controlled;the city is not doing anything to clear is up Gangs entrench upon honest citizens and their rights Gangs; cleaning them out and getting them under control Appendix A 5 Gangs;graffiti and drug trafficking Gangs; I notice a lot more graffiti around town Gangs;no enforcement on housing exteriors as in landscaping the way the properties look Gangs; seems like crime and gangs are becoming rampant in our city and it keeps increasing;we need to stop it Gangs;the fact that we have them here Gangs;the gravity of the gangs roaming the streets Gangs;the growing number of them Gangs;the influx of gangs from illegal immigrants Gangs;there's too many of them Gangs;there's too many of them here Gangs;they are trying to take over; they tell us they're doing better but I can't see it Gangs;you can't walk safely out there;you're not safe out there Graffiti and gangs;it's a disgrace to see the graffiti on walls Graffiti there is a lot of it;it's everyone even on sidewalks;buildings;houses and businesses I don't like all of the gangs out there I don't like to go out because of the gang activity and the shootings in San Bernardino Just gangs and stuff;we need to improve police response;we need better influences on our kids Rowdy kids;gangs Safety for the kids like tagging Tagging;you can't put out your garbage cans without them being painted up The amount of gang members and low income The gang activity moving north is growing The gang problem;it sounds lame but it's scary to go outside; I live really close to a park and there is always stuff going on over there The gang violence; all the shooting and killing that they are doing driving around shooting The gang violence; I feel that it is out of control and the city needs to do more interventions;the police need to do more intervention programs to prevent new gangs from forming The gangs and drugs The gangs and the killing The gangs and violence;when I go downtown I am afraid to be alone because of the gangs there The gangs are all over the place and the graffiti The gangs are everywhere;gang violence The gangs or individuals on the streets make me feel unsafe The gangs;all of the shooting and killings The gangs;all the killings going on; all the violence and the graffiti The gangs;crime;put them all in jail The gangs; I don't think the police are doing enough to stop the gangs; I was born and raised here and the problem with the gangs is really bad The gangs; the mall was such a lovely place before and now I sit in my car;the kids were acting up and nobody stopped them The gangs;there is lot of apartments east of us with gun shots and sirens;they should cut down on the gangs The gangs;they seem to be in control The graffiti, the thefts and murders;you never know whose going to be next;it's not safe to go outside of the house Appendix A 6 The graffiti;they need to do more about it; there is just so much of it; on the bridge and on the 210 going towards Rialto The killings and gangs; I am very concerned and it's getting worse The vandalism;the tagging;the crime in the area and not feeling safe There are a lot of gang wars going on There is graffiti everywhere from the people moving into the neighborhood;it used to be nice but now the people moving in are not as nice These gang shootings are really starting to scare me; every day I am seeing things on the television about gang shootings and its getting on my nerves This city is the pits;gangs are everywhere and I am afraid to go down certain streets Too many gang shootings and too many gangs in this city Too many gangs and not enough police activity; the police take forever to respond Too many gangs;there have been shootings;you cannot walk down the street like you used to Economy/Jobs (7.4%) Attracting new businesses that could bring in more jobs Bringing in new businesses to the area Commerce;we have nothing that drives people here Economic problems are the worst; there are very few jobs out here;gas is high and some people can't pay bills because of it Economy is bad here Economy;housing;it is not as clean as it used to be; the city itself is not as clean as it used to be Economy; I'm waiting for it to turn and become better as far as gas prices going back down along with growth and job availability Economy; I think gas increases is not only a San Bernardino problem but nationwide Economy;jobs; there's no jobs here Economy;the condition of the city and schools and education they offering Economy;the job market and the high price of gasoline;we are losing a lot of retail tax revenue Economy;the unemployment and the gas prices Economy;there is either a lack of funds or a misappropriation of funds;businesses and houses are boarded up; so it appears that there is no income to put anything into those properties and bring the economy back to the way it was before Economy;unemployment and housing are too expensive Employment; falling prices in the housing market and its' effect on employment In the years we've lived here;we've watched the businesses and malls go downhill and disappear; we're losing businesses here It seems that a lot of people are being laid off which I think is contributing to the homeless problem Job openings;employee opportunities;the lack of both Jobs;not enough jobs to go around Jobs;there are no jobs More businesses;we need more businesses My job is directly affected by the city's budget No jobs; crime;if we had more jobs it would cut down on the crime Not getting any new businesses in our area Probably the economics;the resources for government agencies Probably the job issues;unemployment So many people are unemployed and the lack of jobs and opportunities in the area Appendix A 7 The cuts in jobs at a lot of stores that do not have funding The economic issues; the fact that businesses are no longer here The economy right now The economy;housing market The economy;it is bad; there are no jobs The economy;nothing specific about it The economy;the housing market The economy; the jobs that we do have out here are just minimum wage The economy; the prices of food and fuel; also wages not being high enough There is a lack of jobs here Education (5.3%) Budget cuts from the schools Budget;not enough money for schools Education in our schools;we are overpopulated and there are not enough schools Education teachers need to get paid more Education that is tied with violence in the schools Education;it could be better and less crowded in the schools;people should have a right to choose where they want to send their kids to school no matter where they live Education; the homeless; the gang violence Education;there is a forty percent high school dropout rate Police need to keep an eye out for the young kids who walk around all day when they should be in school Rising price of college and universities School system; I don't feel that the standards are good School;not enough schools in the area Schools;not enough teachers; I am concerned that the students are not treated right; there are bad policies and the exit exam is making a lot of students drop out Schools; the bullies Schools; they are just not what they used to be Schools;they are overpopulated Schools;they cut off a lot of activities such as gym for the kids Schools; too many fights; school safety The cutbacks in education; I think they are looking in the wrong places The layoff of teachers;cramming students into classrooms The middle schools; I don't care for the one my kids will go to; they have a lot of problems; I might send my kids to a private school The school district;it should get better The school teachers being laid off due to budget cuts in schools The schools;the quality of the schools The schools; they are under staffed and under paid They need to fix the school system and take care of crime Violence in school;like high school there's been two students killed; stealing from cars near high school AppendixA 8 Housing market/Foreclosures (4.6%) Housing and gas;the cost is too high Housing situation;people are losing their homes Housing;it is not affordable and it has become a huge problem Housing;people are losing their homes because they can't pay their mortgages Housing; there is not enough affordable housing Housing;well there are just too many rentals I'd say the housing and rent Price of homes; they are depreciating Prices on the homes;hoping they go down Probably the empty houses that are showing up in the neighborhoods; the ones that are abandoned Probably the housing properties; the market has gone down but there's still some people who haven't been able to afford the housing; that's a big disappointment Property values have gone down; crime is a concern Public housing;there's too much The falling house prices The foreclosures on homes are rising at an alarming rate; I am starting to see a lot of homes foreclosed The homes being foreclosed; so many people are losing homes; I have seen many foreclosed in my neighborhood The housing situation;it does not affect us and we do not owe money on our house but from someone else's point of view I don't know it must be hard The housing; I am seeing a lot of houses being foreclosed The housing;it's ridiculous the cost of housing;its ungodly The housing; too many bank repos The pricing on housing has dropped;making the value of my house drop and all the houses in San Bernardino as well Too many low quality housing; the fact that it is out of proportion to the high quality housing surrounding the area and what type of people it brings Too much cheap housing;it always brings the wrong kind of people Blight/Revitalize the city (3.5%) Blight areas;lot of places need sidewalks; a lot of graffiti; and a lot of drug addicts Blight;homes that need maintaining Blight;it is pervasive on the Metropolitan City Highway system Blight;run down conditions;graffiti; this is not a place I want to be in Blight; the area is breaking down south of baseline Blight; there's a lot of it Blight; too much of it Downtown is not what it used to be;it looks abandoned Downtown with all the vacant offices and people sleeping in doorways I'd say the downtown area being so dead;they need to do something with it My concern is that we need to clean the downtown area; there is a lot of crime there Redevelopment; there are more and more shop are abandoned;we need more grants Shoddiness;run down;graffiti;no pride in the neighborhood The decay of the city and how it's rundown;there are lots of houses for sell The downtown redevelopment is stagnate and too slow AppendixA 9 The town is run down; there is not really much going on here The whole city is running downhill Urban blight;the downtown area is falling apart We moved here in 1982 and the city was beautiful and now all you see is trash Westside;we need to tear down the projects and start fixing the streets and properties Infrastructure/Streets and roads (3.3%) Getting the streets repaired;there are too many potholes It's the streets;you can hardly drive on them;they have potholes in them I would like more bicycle lanes to be put in so there would be more bicycle friendly streets;with high gas prices they should One side of the area is nice and paved and my side is cracked and not paved;my parents bought this house fifty years ago and I have lived here almost fifty years and the roads are terrible not at all presentable; I mean come on Potholes and beat up streets; the graffiti not being cleaned up after Potholes;they are everywhere and once they filled one pothole they leave another one behind Public works; they need to upgrade the streets and sidewalks Roads and nothing else Rural part of town is run down Streets;they got to many bums and holes The freeways;the shrubbery is dry and ugly they are not taking care of it and looks disgusting The infrastructure; there's not enough of it The roads; they are in poor condition The street repairs are just a joke;there are still potholes everywhere and they are getting bigger;it seems like they are not doing anything The streets are not well kept up; too much trash on the side of the freeways;there are no restrooms in public facilities The streets; there are too many potholes;it's like you cannot even drive anywhere The streets; they need to be repaired They should promote economic issues like infrastructure;develop more inside the town itself;if we do that in the city and do away with blight and the people who can't afford to be here like the criminals then they will leave Government/Local politics (2.7%) City council;they listen to the people but do nothing County board of supervisors;honesty and integrity of representatives Jim Penman;he is trying to run the whole city himself;he thinks he is always right Operation Phoenix and whether it's working or not;if they are just pushing the dirt bags to other areas or not Operation Phoenix;it isn't needed Our mayor has the Phoenix Project going on;that's the only thing he ever talks about That the mayor just seems to concentrate on doing things for the Mexicans instead of things for the whole community The city around us is going up in value while San Bernardino is stagnant;we need a better city administrator The crooked politicians they do whatever it takes to get elected; they don't care about me or you; don't vote for incumbents AppendixA 10 The inability of the city council to work together and on all the issues they are very divided The lack of leadership; the mayor is awful The mayor is putting all his efforts into the Phoenix Project The mayor;he doesn't do a very good job at all These politicians and leaders are getting on my nerves; I think they are all a bunch of con-artists Immigration/Border issues (25%) All the illegals;they take all the construction work and send the money home Illegal aliens; first of all they are ruining the economy; they bring disease over here;they have too many kids and clog up the schools with all of them; they clog the hospitals up Illegal immigration;immigrants are everywhere; there's too many of them;you can't recognize the city anymore because the streets are not kept up;houses are painted odd colors;ten or more people per house; the grounds not kept up Illegal immigration;no jobs because of it Illegal immigration;we are paying more welfare for all of the illegal immigrants Illegal immigration;we are paying too much for illegals and they are costing us too much money Immigration issues; too many illegals taking our jobs Immigration;not implementing the laws the way they should;landlords are not tough enough on busting illegals Immigration;they should have tighter enforcement for people coming across Influx of illegal aliens Not enough control of non-residence such as illegals in the community; I think a lot of the crime in the area like theft, break-ins and gang violence is a problem The illegal immigration problem we have here; they are a drain on our hospitals our education system and cause crime in the area The illegal immigration; they tear up neighborhoods Gas prices/Cost ofliving (20%) Everybody is concerned about the price of gas;it is higher here than anywhere else Gas prices Gas;gas prices are too high People are not having enough to eat;gas prices Prices;gas prices are too high Rising gas prices The gas issues;it's too high The gas prices and the taxes on my bills have risen up The gas prices; they're just too much The price of living; everything is going up Drugs (1.8%) Drug problem; the drugs and crime go hand in hand Drugs; drugs are everywhere even in the nice parts where I live Drugs; the more we catch the better off we are Drugs;we have been called the drug capital of the world; there have been shootings;illegal drugs Everybody can see the drug dealers; the crime;people killing each other;we're living in the last days The downtown area is infested with drugs, crime,prostitution and everything else Appendix A 11 The drug policies or the lack of;you can walk down 13th Street and there are 4 crack houses that people go to for whatever they need The drug problem; seems like the Phoenix Project is hitting here; there are outside agencies that are doing everything they can by targeting certain areas of the city; our own police department is doing nothing The drugs and the murders; I have lived here since 1954 and things have gotten really bad since then;when people move here they can get on welfare immediately;before it would take them living here six months before they could apply Poverty/Low income families (1.8%) Low incomes;there are a lot of disadvantaged families Poverty;all the homeless people on the street;it has gotten worse Poverty; I work in a hospital and take care of Afro-Americans, Hispanics and the elderly and it seems like they don't have a good support system Poverty;low income housing all over town Poverty;there are a lot of bums, drug dealers and gangsters in our town now Poverty; there are a lot of people that need help here This is just a low income town; the people that are here are all low class and there's not a lot of money here We have very low income people; they're on welfare; downtown is occupied by low income and the town is looking bad Welfare;there are too many people on welfare and they are not getting a job; I work in a grocery store and there are people coming through my line with two and three EPT cards;these people need to get a job and stop wasting our tax dollar City budget issues/Finances (1.5%) City debt;rent;we are in the hole; I kind of like the idea of paying as we go I realize that San Bernardino is in a bad way with finances and the mayor is always looking for a way to get money from the citizens Misspent money by building things and putting in parks;we need our streets paved Revenue for the city The city is in a deficit;the economy has declined but it is supposed to be getting better The money being spent and I do not remember having any vote on it; the work they did under the freeway is nice but we did not get a vote to spend the money The sober living; they're making it difficult to help the community; the city is making it hard with the funding The Z issue on sales tax and on the police department; they are not spending the funds properly Where the money is being spent; they put some money on speed limits that they could use else where Traffic congestion (1.0%) The traffic issue;they need to do something about the traffic Traffic congestion Traffic;it is crowded;nowhere in particular Traffic;mainly freeway traffic they haven't kept up on the freeway infrastructure Traffic;the 30 freeway is clogged AppendixA 12 Homeless (1.0%) Homeless on F Street;after dark they are walking around and I almost hit a couple of them before Homeless; they don't have any shelters;they used to go to the Salvation Army,but that's filled to capacity I think people on the streets; there's just too many The free-loaders around the area;the transients and people who do not want to work and are trying to get easy money from the county and the state The homeless; there are so many of them downtown;any development will just be taken over by them;people do not go there with people sleeping in the streets and parks Growth/Development (1.0%) Development; the lack of commercial development Growth of the city; the population in general;it is too crowded The development choices seem to be very poor The development of the city is just not headed in the right direction; they are not doing anything to attract businesses especially in the downtown area; they have a great mall and area but they are not doing anything with it The lack of development in the down town area Nothing (2.3%) Everything is ok for me I live on the line between Loma Linda and San Bernardino; everything is pretty good;no nothing No nothing None (3) None of them really;nothing comes to mind Nothing Nothing really Nothing;nothing Nothing;nothing comes to mind Other (6.2%) Black people;they make everything worse Having the people do what they should be doing all of the time I don't like the way they zone property;we were told a Target would be put in near to where we live and it has never been built I don't live in San Bernardino; I lived there in the sixties and seventies Morality; there is no morality in San Bernardino as far as sexuality and child abuse and drug abuse My biggest concern is that there isn't anything to do here for kids; I have a 4 year old child and it's hard to find anything to do around here My neighbor is parking her mobile home in front of my window;they need code enforcement Not enough water for the general populace People need to clean up their yards Police activity is not done the right way Public image;people in the community portray a negative image of the community Recreation;jogging trails;we have none Stray cats; too many stray cats running around I live in a trailer park and they get up and under the trailers, they have babies there and there is just too many of them AppendixA 13 The city services;there are none;they are laying off all of their people;the police are out of control The fire department;not enough men and not enough equipment The noise;the loud music around me The people are not getting a fare shake on the issues and are uninformed The police officers need to do a better job and not be biased,but be nice to others and try to be more understanding and they need to work on their communication skills; I know they have a hard job The valley is deteriorating in the last fifty years The war;I think they should stop it The young kids; there are too many kids wandering around doing nothing There is hardly anything or anywhere for kids to hang out during the day like a youth center or something and that's why kids are always roaming the streets and getting into trouble They are asking homeowners to pay more taxes for the police that are on the other side of town and don't respond to our side of town because they are on the other side of town where all of the welfare recipients are located They are contemplating laying off firemen and police officers and we need them right now They are not hiring the police that they need Transportation; I think we need to expand the options Water;the wasting of water the city does Youth;opportunity for youth development Unsure (2.7%) Don't know I don't know (2) I don't know not really;nothing came to mind I don't know; I have not lived here very long I don't know; I just kind of live my life;no I don't know I don't think about it It hard to say when the Lakers game is on No clue Nothing comes to mind (3) Oh I don't know Buzzwords Count Violence 30 Kill 16 Downtown 15 Business 13 Money 12 Murder 10 Welfare 9 Potholes 6 Young 6 Appendix A 14 \ . an Bernardino Police Department ,.. ,,...„ asp ., i:,--.1,21,Vi, South•65418 ' NAM'-44207• 84wtw..t{Ad.6lj-24801 Norlh..asi( .N°22126 Al-38at ,.3& .. - �� 6t-3158 82-3564 t .62.32t8 q_ 83-3303 ,- _84-3887 x;..; . 681-3242 Se A5-3167 -,,; £ 135-3071 i 84 3442 ' ' -- NM fib-3631 an A2 9340 �� S mi 67-3031 1 1 SuWhe.6ttDavw)427147 �;; - NwO,e+.t ctweie=2z88t of-3134 - 4141 Ct-3563) U2-4347 n C2- 03-4062 "" C3-3135 '3';,;"08-39178... r w_.,,,C4-3187 05-413. "� C5-itl3 -08 38- gr.' qy i 4 04 3).8 16 24 32 0.-3886 -Tc �:r Yom"- fir•Wes on 07-3596 07-3932 S EC��fy!,..1:15-56,0.1466 Data i3 Fre3m71ory and 5441ect 10 07341398 Proposed Reorganization 2008/2009 Michael A. B illdt, Chiet1 to 6cRabdl at MCCICDC Mtg: 41/5/6 g by: c- P® iL Agenda Bem .V by: City ClerkiCDC Secretary City of San Bernardino San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary Pages 1-2 2. Overview Pages 3-5 3. Police Administration Pages 6-7 4. Administrative Services Division Pages 8-11 5. Investigations Division Pages 12-14 6. North and South Patrol Divisions Pages 15-19 7. Appendixes A-1 —A-11 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency Executive Summary The Police Department's Command Staff evaluated all aspects of the department's structure, staffing, deployment and delivery of police services in developing potential budget cuts to aid the City in balancing its' FY 2008-09 budget. The outcome of these endeavors is the proposed reorganization of department operations that enhances police services while saving scarce budget dollars, maximizes the efficiency of existing sworn and civilian police personnel, and increases police visibility in the community. The decision making process factored in the department's 25-year commitment and investment in Community Oriented Policing and Problem Solving (COPPS) and a desire to continue the evolution of community policing by improving crime data and mapping collection, analysis and distribution to support deployment of personnel to address community problems. In doing so, the Police Department will continue to set the standard for excellence in policing. The proposed reorganization includes the following major changes in police operations that will enhance police services while generating over $2.9 million in General Fund savings in FY 2008-09. Patrol Division • Split the Patrol Division into North and South divisions, each commanded by a Captain, to increase administrative oversight of critical patrol operations and reduce liability. This requires the upgrade of an existing Lieutenant's position to Captain. • Reduce area districts from five to four to balance calls for service workload, efficiently deploy patrol staffing, and provide enhanced administrative oversight. In doing so, our calls for service workload imbalance between police districts will be reduced from about 5%to 3%. • Increase number of patrol shifts from four to five and slightly adjust shift hours to better mirror the occurrence of calls for service and violent crime. During peak time periods beat deployment will be increased up to 48 staffed beats. • Increase the number of patrol beats from 21 to 28 by increasing the number of police officers deployed to patrol operations during peak periods of calls for service and criminal activity. Increased deployment will enhance our crime reduction efforts and response times to calls for service. • Close the Community Service Offices and redeploy or eliminate six Community Service Officer I positions. Three will be reassigned to the Complaint Desk, one retained to support District Commander operations at the central Police Department and two will be eliminated to generate budget 1 savings. Historically, the offices have been underutilized by the public despite being strategically located within each District Command. A recent 32 day study of walk-in traffic revealed only 16 people per business day contacted all six Community Service Offices or an average of 2.7 people per office each day. • Although the Community Service Offices are being closed, Operation Phoenix Centers, located in three of the four policing districts, are available to the public to access local, county and state government services. Each center has an assigned police officer. A previous study identified a chronic crime and blight problem in the neighborhood around 40th and Sierra Way. It is recommended that the City Council consider creating a fourth Operation Phoenix Center in this area of the proposed Northwest policing district. • Use technology to create virtual District Community Service Offices for each district to readily provide web based public access to crime statistics, crime maps and the District Commander. • Increase usage of full-time police officers and decrease overtime expenditures associated with At Risk Corridor Patrols. • Transfer Crime Impact Teams (CIT) from Investigations to Patrol. Increase CIT from two to four teams, with one team assigned to each area district. CIT will be deployed in high risk neighborhoods based on crime analysis data. Investigations Division • Assign two detectives to form a new Cold Case Unit that investigates unsolved murders using proven investigative techniques and emerging technology. • Increase our commitment to graffiti enforcement and investigation by adding two officers(a 50%increase)to the Graffiti Task Force. Administrative Services Division • Create an Information Analyst position, essential to develop crime maps to support patrol operations, by upgrading an existing Community Service Officer II position. 2 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency Overview Historical Perspective of Community Oriented Policing and Problem Solving(COPPS) in San Bernardino In 1983, Mayor Bob Holcomb visited Houston, Texas and was introduced to the emerging concept of community policing. Upon his return to San Bernardino, Mayor Holcomb and the City Council worked with Chief Ben Gonzales to implement community policing in San Bernardino. The first Community Service Office was opened at 10th and Medical Center in 1985. Within a short period of time this nascent policing concept evolved into six geographically based District Commands each staffed by a Lieutenant and contingent of police officers and support personnel. One or more Community Service Offices were opened in each District Command to provide public access and collaboration. The focus of these early efforts was to enhance police interaction with the public and to build public trust. Over the years COPPS has evolved, primarily based on our experiences, community needs, technology development, and budgetary constraints. These intermediary efforts focused on balancing workloads between District Commands, problem identification and problem solving, and leveraging local, State and Federal resources to mitigate chronic problems. These evolutionary changes included: • First reducing the number of District Commands from six to three, then increasing the number back to five along with decentralizing problem solving assets to the area offices and balancing workloads. • Introducing a Problem Oriented Policing component that utilized the S-A-R-A model (Scanning — Analysis — Response — Assessment) of problem identification and resolution. • Implementing a 21 Beat Plan based on natural community boundaries that focused on three key points -- to better serve the community, to better serve the members of the department and to ensure adequate policing resources. The goals of the Beat Plan were to improve the partnership between the police and the community, and to develop ownership, or territorial imperative, where beat officers were accountable to eliminate crime and blight problems in their assigned beats. • Enhancing the 21 Beat Plan by deploying proactive teams in high risk neighborhoods and corridors based on timely analysis of crime and calls for service (CFS) data. This focused deployment of proactive resources, in collaboration with Operation Phoenix, is largely responsible for the reduction in reported Part I (serious felony) crimes over the past three years. 3 Rationale for Proposed Reorganization The recent economic downturn and the need to propose budget cuts to balance the City's FY 2008-09 budget provided the impetus for police managers to conduct an internal self critique of performance and the delivery of police services. We were provided the opportunity to reflect on our accomplishments and to chart a new course that contemplates budget reality, community needs and the policing challenges that the future holds. From these discussions the Command Staff has proposed a reorganization of police operations intended to take the COPPS policing concept to the next level of evolution. While past revamping efforts focused on interaction with the public and problem solving, this current proposal focuses on directly involving the public in problem identification and problem solving, enhancing the delivery of service to the public, and improving efficiency and effectiveness of police personnel. These goals will be accomplished by leveraging grant funding to purchase technology needed to improve communication between police and the community and to provide police officers and the public with real-time crime data such as calls for service, crime statistics and crime maps depicting crime problems and patterns. Although COPPS has grown and evolved over the years, the Executive Staff structure remains the same as it did in the early 1970's. Management Partners, Inc. (MPI) conducted a comprehensive study of our department's varied operational aspects. In its March 2007 final written report, the consulting firm made a number of recommendations regarding police operations. Prominent among the recommendations were: • Enhance the scope of duties of the Crime Analysis Unit to be responsible, not only for overall crime analysis, but also for analysis of crime trends within each of its policing districts. o Facilitate a shift from investigative support to patrol-related trends for analysis. o Focus crime analysis efforts on district specific patrol issues. o Focus crime analysis efforts on known parolees within districts. o Focus crime analysis efforts on known registrants within districts. o Establish daily crime analysis interaction with patrol personnel at the daily shift briefing level. o Assist district staff with crime trend analysis at the district, beat and RD level. • Add a fourth captain to the organization's leadership structure to balance the workload in the Patrol Division, enhance management oversight of critical police operations to minimize liability and maximize the deployment of police resources. As such, this recommendation is a sound business decision, providing the department with a progressive 21st century framework and a contemporary leadership structure matching function which will directly optimize delivery of law enforcement services. 4 • Create GIS mapping capability within the department o Facilitate the distribution of near-real-time UCR data in a map-based (desktop)format to command staff and district commanders. o Facilitate the distribution of simplified near-real-time UCR data in a map- based format to Patrol personnel from Mobile Data Computers in patrol sedans. o Facilitate the deployment of tactical pin maps around the organization for specialized crime data such as known parolee and registrant addresses. The proposed reorganization includes the permanent closure of all Community Service Offices and the reassignment or elimination of six support positions currently working out of the area offices. Historically the offices have been underutilized by the public despite being strategically located within each District Command. A recent 32 business day study of walk-in traffic revealed that an average of 2.7 people a day visited each of the six offices. We provide a higher level of access to government services, as well as a police officer at the three Operation Phoenix service centers where an array of city, county and private services are provided. Currently Operation Phoenix Centers are deployed in the Northeast, Southeast and Southwest policing districts. A previous study of chronic crime and blight identified the 40th and Sierra Way area as a location for an Operation Phoenix Center. We recommend the Council consider creating an Operation Phoenix Center in this area of the proposed Northwest policing district, providing a community center in each of the four policing districts. Despite budget cuts, the completion of the Combined Hiring Plan and the closure of the Community Service Offices provide additional personnel to enhance both patrol and investigative operations and enhance police services delivered to the public. The redeployed personnel, coupled with new technology that will be deployed over the next 12 to 18 months, will further improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the Police Department. Summary Through the development and implementation of the Operation Phoenix program, city officials continue their commitment to improving the quality of life for all community members. The three pillars of Suppression, Intervention, and Prevention provide the opportunity to develop collaborative strategies designed to reduce crime and blight, and improve the quality of life for our residents. The San Bernardino Police Department will use the synergy created by combining the COPPS policing model, expanded 28-Beat deployment plan and strategic deployment of proactive resources, driven by crime data, to provide more streamlined, efficient delivery of policing services. Through this new triad the Police Department will enhance the delivery of police services to the community. 5 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency Police Administration Overview Currently, Police Administration is comprised of a Chief of Police, Assistant Chief of Police, three Captains (Division Commanders), an Internal Affairs Unit, and support staff. This configuration remains almost exactly today as it did in 1970; yet the current organization has essentially doubled in size over the nearly four decades hence and society's demand for progressive policing services has increased exponentially. The current structure is no longer optimal in our ever-changing public safety-challenged environment. These facts, coupled with highly sophisticated technological computer systems advances, plus a multitude of complex scientifically-linked crime-solving breakthroughs, along with a variety of dynamic life-affirming societal forces and influences, have substantially elevated our 200,000 plus city-based stakeholders' expectations concerning their police department's capacity to deliver on its all-too- important mission. Our stakeholders' bottom line mandates that the police department perceptibly, as well as consistently, improve and enhance neighborhood safety and quality of life by proactively reducing crime. Proposed Reorganization • Upgrade an existing Lieutenant's position to Captain An immediate business sense realignment of Police Administration and the creation of a fourth Captain are long overdue. Most evident and compelling is a critical need to bifurcate the patrol division into North and South divisions, each commanded by a Captain to increase administrative oversight of critical patrol operations and reduce liability. Upgrading an existing Lieutenant's position to Captain will minimize cost to the City. This decision to expand and update the police department's leadership structure was not made in a vacuum; it has been validated by Management Partners, Inc., a reputable consulting firm retained by the City, which articulated in its March 2007 final report the recommendation of a fourth captain. This single change is the linchpin for all subsequent reorganization evolutionary changes in the Patrol, Investigations and Administrative Services divisions. It will provide the organization with not only a progressive 21st century framework, but also with a contemporary, yet infused and stable leadership structure which can most directly optimize an efficient delivery system of difference-making law enforcement services. The return on investment will be fully evident by department-wide assets and resources being more strategically deployed and efficiently responsive. 6 c o .- "> 0 — O 'm _c o. m O U cn 1 I i c I co i N Rh- (Tr -- i Q cn in s E F-' N 7_-� L I a) 1 I Q I o o0 -4-) 0 1 x 5 -c 1 W X o 1 EW i 1 czi I fa, o :N .i • I A > c a� ) - Z al 0 •- 0 o U L a i P. c o O `m N N V Q g 7--1 io c cItt •� n U � a MM Fil , I . { I n 1 c N Q �Mrj (C4 y E CL CL X N Q N 11.1 c Q —_ N> 0 I x I W I a) > t• '� N c a •oo U Q 7 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency Administrative Services Division Overview The Administrative Services Division is currently comprised of one captain, one lieutenant, one police officer (recruiter), Police Communications, Records Bureau, Financial Unit, and Personnel &Training Unit. The division also serves as a liaison with the City's Information Technology Department and has responsibility for management oversight of the agency's contract jail operations. Reorganization Enhancements • Upgrade the Personnel&Training Lieutenant's position to Captain To accommodate department-wide reorganization, the Personnel & Training Unit lieutenant's position will be upgraded to provide a fourth Captain, necessary to bifurcate the Patrol Division. A civilian manager, already in place by way of a recent compensation and classification study, will become responsible for the day-to-day operations of the Personnel &Training Unit. Organizational confidence, along with stability of leadership, accompanies this transition as the civilian manager is a 24 year, previous long term supervisor of the unit. Moreover, the civilian manager possesses a breath of experience corresponding with demonstrated human resources laden competencies. Past success of the Personnel & Training Unit will continue as a blueprint for future success that has been forged. To date, all patrol officer positions are filled with zero vacancies. The immediate future regarding police officer recruitment is equally promising. Every goal (31 police officer positions) associated with the Combined Hiring Plan has been achieved. FY 08/09 provides for an additional nine police officer positions. Our community recruitment outreach strategies, bolstered by a variety of marketing and media campaigns, made possible through Measure Z funding, remain integral components of our anticipated continued success in the area of hiring the best and brightest police officer candidates. • Eliminate a Records Technician I position An upgrade to the Fi1eNET document imaging system will streamline the document scanning process and allow a Records Technician I position to be eliminated. Acquisition of state-of-the-art technology for our Fi1eNET system upgrades significantly enhances our document imaging capability in the Records Bureau. The upgrade improves administrative efficiencies and provides an overall budget cost savings in line with the elimination of a Records Technician position. 8 • Implement multi-channel dispatch operations for Patrol Division to enhance the processing of calls for service. Dispatch Operations are the somewhat invisible but indispensable 24/7/365 vital communications link between citizens calling the police department for a variety of law enforcement related services. Due to present city-wide fiscal challenges, Dispatch Operations will hold the line for the upcoming fiscal year by freezing two Dispatcher positions. This is significant as Dispatch operations will move into the realm of managing two primary channels to accommodate the proposed North/South patrol divisions. As the department moves forward with the proposed reorganization, Dispatch Center personnel will ready themselves for the challenge of managing, tracking and controlling a significant increase of officers and personnel in the field. There are a number of professional dispatch organizations, one of which is the Association of Public-Safety Communication Officials (APCO, International). Such associations strongly advocate limiting, for safety reasons, the number and volume of officers that any single dispatcher is assigned to monitor, track and control. The challenging public safety environment of San Bernardino should compel our agency and city leaders to be mindful of this area of concern. • Upgrade an existing Community Service Officer II position to create a new Information Analyst position assigned to the Police Dispatch. The Information analyst will manage the department's new GIS Crime Mapper program; a component of bringing about virtual based policing, and will be assigned to Police Dispatch. He/she will produce and distribute near-real-time crime maps to police administrators, the district commander, detectives and police officers (via MDC's in the police sedans) to provide more timely and accurate crime data upon which to base deployment and proactive investigative efforts. • Maximize implementation and utilization of over $10 million in new technology and automation acquired during the past decade. o Implement a wireless MDC communications network to provide near-real- time access to district and beat UCR data from Mobile Data Computers in patrol sedans. o Implement a web based crime mapping program designed to provide police commanders and line personnel with near-real-time crime mapping, including access in police sedans. o Implement virtual District Community Service Offices and web based community access to police statistics and calls for service data. o Upgrade the Fi1eNET document imaging system to enhance the collection and dissemination of police reports throughout the agency, and the police payroll process. 9 o Deploy four automated license plate readers in police sedans, one per police district,to enhance the recovery of stolen vehicles. o Facilitate near-real-time access to district and beat UCR data from Mobile Data Computers in patrol sedans. o Transition to field-based report writing software in patrol sedans. While the Administrative Services Division will be reduced by two personnel, the overarching importance for the proposed reorganization is the immediate, as well as long term, benefit to public safety through the evolution of our community policing model. 10 dlitik �cn 'a m c o -- a (0 N — CO v 2 > o N U) :C N L U L 0 .0 U N N c Q a >. to'0.— N O o < U ~ I 1 — 1 ') GL Q V L C � } .R o) o I--i N 1 H CO Cc 0 C I - = v _ E co V a CH .Sd - H N •r" m cn. m Uc, c N U O (1.) y N d a O VD d a a d d .� E ! ct N 1.) .� N N a1 a Q c� — . ¢� o Cr) cc" o o c a E m LL -0 I Q I I N O`T N E m N (0 d 7 < on _- V O V R. a —--;c. L L N• m C N U O Q co N cu 7 H H 0 — N 0 o u N ,a m O 'o U O U U` P. O N� � Ca� 1 11 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency Investigations Division Overview The Investigations Division, commanded by a Captain, is currently comprised of the Investigations Bureau and Special Enforcement Bureau each commanded by a Lieutenant. The Investigations Bureau is charged will completing follow-up investigations of crime reports taken primarily by the Patrol Division, preparing criminal cases for submission to the District Attorney, and testifying in court to secure successful prosecution. Detectives will remain assigned as investigative liaisons to each District in the Patrol Division. The Special Enforcement Bureau houses the highly-trained proactive units that work in tandem with Patrol to reduce violence in the community. SEB's mission of proactive enforcement geared toward the reduction of gang, gun and drug violence will continue. The Department has increased its collaborative efforts in reducing gun violence in San Bernardino through an extended partnership with the Federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms regional Violent Crime Impact Team. As we move to the next level of community policing, this partnership has grown to include the assignment of a Violent Crime Impact Team to the City of San Bernardino. This team is housed in an offsite facility and works in tandem with the San Bernardino Police Department Special Enforcement Bureau to reduce gun violence. Reorganization Enhancements • Addition of 2 officers to the Graffiti Task Force and the Realignment and assignment of the Graffiti Task Force to the Gang Team Historically, investigations into the structure and criminal activity of gangs in San Bernardino have been conducted by members of the MET/Gang Team, Gang Impact Task Force and Graffiti Task Force. These teams were spread between the Patrol and Investigations Division. They will now be consolidated in the Investigations Division, moving primary responsibility for gang suppression and enforcement to the Special Enforcement Bureau. Two officers have been added to the Graffiti Task Force to create a 4 officer contingent to address blight issues citywide. These GTF officers will be attached to the MET/Gang Team to better track the activity of"Tagger Crews" whose criminal activities often mirror those of street gangs. • Creation of a"Cold Case"homicide team Two Detectives will be assigned to a new "Cold Case" homicide team to aggressively re-examine unsolved murders. Improvement in forensic technology 12 and other investigative techniques will aid investigators in identifying suspects in some of theses cases. • Collaboration with ATF for a local Violent Crime Impact Team based in San Bernardino The Department has increased its collaborative efforts in reducing gun violence in San Bernardino through an extended partnership with the Federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms regional Violent Crime Impact Team. As we move to the next level of community policing, this partnership is expected to result in the assignment of a Violent Crime Impact Team to the City of San Bernardino. • The Aviation Unit will transition from the Investigations Division to the Patrol Division to support patrol operations The bifurcating of the Patrol Division provides the opportunity to transfer the Aviation Unit to the Patrol Division. Under this alignment, Air-1 operations can be fine tuned to better support both the North and South patrol divisions and be integrated into problem solving programs. 13 ' v tl m i ixc`15a °a l'' -',m m :x°"°a E m o c EU o _ N. <b .21, .---2 T Um o V m ,. &g_I k! v o0. ^ Z Q m m9>�,� W O a mm a W W m a u M$ 0°-.0(1) o u Q a u m Y -.5•.-=w U '-'1'.."1 w 8a L: . 10 ?r is w m m ~E� o U ON a ion u r Z'>a O� UU 2 a I ,o x i ' a mo CU' C/- I--I (. ---I I a a - v) co It i Pk ao 1 0 "w I a 0 C� 0 w r1 01 w 2�m 01�Oi Q mQ 0 U .�y W m m a cEa ° E a 3-I Cl) Q) E co ct r QN LO wa m _ w � _ YNN' t q = L„, a v a V H`- Hv c aaaa I`W�y -a ?a A-a �a >a w z la<UU o� I a I w; i o :m a ▪„ a � u�o E of H x oaa 4-a L u_�r- W a a f a 14 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency North and South Patrol Divisions Overview The Patrol Division, lead by a captain and the largest division in the department, is the uniform presence of the department charged with the initial response to calls for service and crimes. Patrol resources are deployed based on our Community Oriented Policing and Problem Solving (COPPS) policing concept with the city currently divided into five geographically based District Commands. Each District Command is lead by a Lieutenant who provides the delivery of policing services with the assistance of a complement of police officers and support personnel. They address quality of life issues, crime trends and patterns, chronic service locations and coordinate with the community for crime prevention,neighborhood watch, and special programs. Patrol response units are deployed across four 10-hour shifts to cover the 21 Beat Plan, developed to balance the work load of calls for service and crime data. Police officers staffing these beats are charged with beat ownership, or territorial imperative, and responsibility to develop community partnerships necessary to collaboratively address community problems. Patrol units are augmented with the deployment of "At Risk Corridor" patrols and District Command "Crime Impact Teams" that address district specific crime problems. These proactive elements of the patrol division were first deployed to support Operation Phoenix, and then citywide after a dramatic decrease in crime occurred in the first Operation Phoenix district. Reorganization Enhancements • The Patrol Division will be divided into two geographically and workload-based divisions, North and South, each commanded by a Captain. (See Appendix 1) At 280 employees, the Patrol Division is by far the largest division of the Police Department. This large number of personnel coupled with a myriad of complex policing issues challenges the division's ability to respond effectively to community concerns and strains supervisory and management oversight. Bifurcating the division, creating a North and South Patrol Division, each commanded by a Captain, makes business sense, reduces liability, balances workload and improves communication and responsiveness. The cost of creating a fourth Captain has been minimized by upgrading a Lieutenant's position previously assigned to Personnel & Training. Division boundaries were developed by balancing calls for service and workload data while maintaining traditional neighborhoods. (See Appendixes 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9) 15 • Realignment from five to four District Commands, two each in the North and South divisions. Realigning the district commands from five to four will place two policing districts in each patrol division. (See Appendix 2) District Command boundaries were established by analyzing and balancing calls for service and workload. District community policing efforts will be augmented and enhanced by the assignment of four Crime Impact Teams and four At Risk Corridor patrol teams, strategically deployed to suppress crime in concert with our community policing model and the enhanced beat plan, addressing critical community needs and violent crime. The district commands will retain their problem solving capabilities, having an operations sergeant, detective, district resource officers and Community Service Officer H. The Community Service Officer I positions however will be either reassigned or eliminated to generate budget savings. • Strategic redeployment of proactive Crime Impact Teams officers and the "At Risk Corridor"patrols as a component of the district commands. Strategic redeployment of Crime Impact Team officers from investigations to the patrol district commands and assigning each District Command with an At Risk Corridor Patrol provides the district commanders with a very robust proactive capacity, enhancing suppression efforts and community response. Each district command CIT team consists of five officers supervised by a sergeant. Each patrol division will have two teams with opposing days off to provide seven day coverage. Two, two-officer teams will be assigned to At Risk Corridor Patrols in each district, providing seven day coverage during peak times. Assigning regular duty officers will reduce overtime expenditures for these patrols. Collectively, these teams provide 15- 18 additional proactive officers during peak hours each day. These teams will augment and enhance community policing efforts and support patrol shift officers. • Enhance the existing "beat plan" from 21 to 28 beats, with seven per district command. The current 21-Beat Plan will be enhanced,increasing from 21 to 28 beats, to provide enhanced community policing and problem solving. (See Appendix 3) The size of the beats will be smaller, and more officers will be deployed each day. The smaller beats will enhance beat "Territorial Imperative", ownership and community partnership. Daily shift deployment will be based on the occurrence times of calls for service and violent crime. (See Appendixes 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) During peak times, about 48 shift officers will be deployed. (See Appendix 12) • Realignment of patrol shifts from four ten-hour shifts to five ten-hour shifts Concurrent with increasing the number of patrol beats we will increase the number of patrol shifts from four ten-hour shifts to five. This change allows the department to 16 deploy officers during critical times when calls for service and violent crime are most prevalent. (See Appendix 11) • Eliminate Community Service Offices and create virtual District Community Service Offices through innovative technology to produce crime data for field use and enhance community partnerships, public access and connectivity. The virtual district command concept is another evolution in community policing and an adjunct of the department's triad approach. The physical Community Service Offices will be permanently closed and replaced with virtual District Community Service Offices through innovative technologies that keep the district lieutenants connected to the public and maintain the vitality of community partnerships. Implementation of Crime Mapper technology will provide near-real-time crime data to officers in their police sedans to help them identify and attack community problems. This same web based technology will be provided to the public promoting transparency of police operations and crime and enhancing accountability. Although the Community Service Offices are being closed, Operation Phoenix Centers, located in three of the four policing districts, provide an array of government and private sector services to the community. A police officer is assigned to each Operation Phoenix Center providing direct access to police services. It is recommended that the City Council consider a fourth Operation Phoenix Center in the 40th and Sierra Way area, which is located in the Northwest District. 17 i 1 l 1 \ 0 E _ ± _C \ \ )x / k \ }\/ $E {$ \ \ 0 \ D 0 Z I I I 1 ! t o .. . . . . . _ I ) » o co & . t \ \ L^^ _^ &� £y . ...... .. §� k \\/\ / //\ /a ,1- (..) 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O 9 9 4 0 0., o-o o- o., N O N v= co,-CC= O O) O,-CO - a) - 0C'- ' "- NCO °)Cr,- NCh L 0 a a o N a.d co M a 0 d d d d c U g 0 = g g 0) � � I I I I 0 d a v O 0 •E n a L o rn Titc)n y y v 0 - a a y v o a M N� r E 0 a L d d a a) o co > > V) co= 0 ) 0 o cn Cl) U) I ! _i_— I I 19 Index of Appendixes 1. North Division and South Division Boundaries 2. Four District Boundaries 3. Twenty-Eight Beats 4. Average Police Calls-For-Service(PCFS)per Hour 5. Average Police Calls-For-Service(PCFS)per Period 6. Average Violent Crime Reports per Hour 7. Average Violent Crime Reports per Period 8. Average Property Crime Reports per Hour 9. Average Property Crime Reports per Period 10. Data Reference Sheet 11. Shift Hours and Hourly Patrol Coverage 12. 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OOZO 00 60 0000 . 00 62 a 000z o - 0066 �., ��. - - 0081- a s� 00L6 o- p 0096 € v> 0096 d 00Z 6 001.1. Nommilli a� W 0006 0060 0080 ., > Ira OOLO In O o If) O O O M M N N Ae rod sliodaa 9 1 1 O o i o 1 ; o I o o 0 E 0 � d �,, o L. 1 o a i N -c ,.. 8w _ m o O d a `' a re a� as i_ c:, E •L 6 o o 1 c. 0 I L O O O o O �. . ., e.. o w.s�:+.Kxs., ,m„,�:.. d..,du. {e{ i . { O O O O O O N O 0 N O c0 CO V icep gad sliodeH 10 Data Reference Sheet 1. South Division and North Division Boundaries Data Source: 2007 CAD Calls-For-Service(CFS)Data—96,155 Incidents. Using existing Police Reporting District(RD)boundaries,the City was divided into two separate divisions. South Division has 3139 extra CFS to incorporate the David-1 beat into Southeast District as part of the mid-town Operation Phoenix Area. South Division has approximately 54.03%of the overall CFS call load while North Division has 45.97% of the CGS call load. 2. Four District Boundaries Data Source: 2007 CAD Calls-For-Service(CFS)Data—96,155 Incidents. Using the existing Police Reporting District(RD)boundaries, the City was divided into four roughly equal districts with an aim to have about 22,000 to 24,000 CFS in each district. The Southeast Division has a slightly larger CFS call load to accommodate encompassing the mid-town Operation Phoenix Area into one single district. 3. Twenty-Eight Beats Data Source: 2007 CAD Calls-For-Service(CFS)Data—96,115 Incidents. With 28 patrol beats 96155 CFS incidents produce approximate 3,434 CFS incidents per beat. Using this number as a rough baseline figure,the 28 beats were divided into the four districts producing seven beats in each district. Southeast District beats are slightly denser in call load because of the higher density of CFS incidents in this general area. The C5 beat was designed to accommodate the special characteristics of the SB621 service area. 4. Average Police Calls-For-Service(PCFS)per Hour Data Source: 2003-2007 CAD Calls-For-Service Data. Five years of CFS data were broken down into hourly blocks and averaged by day to create the final data. Average CFS Received counts reflect the hour that the incident was actually entered into the Computer-Aided-Dispatch(CAD) system. Average CFS Dispatched counts reflect the number of incidents actually dispatched to officers each hour. Using a five year period provides a more refined(thus more accurate)reflection of hourly counts. 5. Average Police Calls-For-Service(PCFS)per Period This report uses the same data source as Attachment 4 (Average Police Calls-For-Service per Hour). The 24 hourly blocks of data are combined into 8 three-hour periods to provide a more normalized set of data(counts per period)that can be easily compared to crime data. 6. Average Violent Crime Reports per Hour Data Source: 2006-2007 RMS UCR Part-1 Crime Data. Two years of recent UCR Part- 1 violent crime reports (Murder,Rape,Robbery, and Aggravated Assault)were broken down into hourly blocks and averaged by day to create the final data. Average Violent Crime Reports counts reflect the hour that the incident occurred instead of the hour reported to the Police Department. 7. Average Violent Crime Reports per Period This report uses the same data source as Attachment 6(Average Violent Crime Reports per Hour). The 24 hourly blocks of data are combined into 8 three-hour periods to provide a more normalized set of data(counts per period)that can be easily compared to CAD CFS data. 8. Average Property Crime Reports per Hour Data Source: 2006-2007 RMS UCR Part-1 Crime Data. Two years of recent UCR Part- 1 property crime reports (Burglary,Theft, and Vehicle Theft)were broken down into hourly blocks and averaged by day to create the final data. Average Property Crime Reports counts reflect the hour that the incident occurred instead of the hour reported to the Police Department. 9. Average Property Crime Reports per Period This report uses the same data source as Attachment 8 (Average Property Crime Reports per Hour). The 24 hourly blocks of data are combined into 8 three-hour periods to provide a more normalized set of data(counts per period)that can be easily compared to CAD CFS data. 11 L. 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S ... .. Da,a,s prellImar9 D5-433+3 aii De-5'31 • 0, ,, ,41.5.4-56'2'''''' Proposed Reorganization 2008/2009 00 8/ 2009 41 hael A. Bi lldt 5 Chief of Po lice San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary Pages 1-2 2. Overview Pages 3-5 3. Police Administration Pages 6-7 4. Administrative Services Division Pages 8-11 5. Investigations Division Pages 12-14 6. North and South Patrol Divisions Pages 15-19 7. Appendixes A-1 —A-I1 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency Executive Summary The Police Department's Command Staff evaluated all aspects of the department's structure, staffing, deployment and delivery of police services in developing potential budget cuts to aid the City in balancing its' FY 2008-09 budget. The outcome of these endeavors is the proposed reorganization of department operations that enhances police services while saving scarce budget dollars, maximizes the efficiency of existing sworn and civilian police personnel, and increases police visibility in the community. The decision making process factored in the department's 25-year commitment and investment in Community Oriented Policing and Problem Solving (COPPS) and a desire to continue the evolution of community policing by improving crime data and mapping collection, analysis and distribution to support deployment of personnel to address community problems. In doing so, the Police Department will continue to set the standard for excellence in policing. The proposed reorganization includes the following major changes in police operations that will enhance police services while generating over $2.9 million in General Fund savings in FY 2008-09. Patrol Division • Split the Patrol Division into North and South divisions, each commanded by a Captain, to increase administrative oversight of critical patrol operations and reduce liability. This requires the upgrade of an existing Lieutenant's position to Captain. • Reduce area districts from five to four to balance calls for service workload, efficiently deploy patrol staffing, and provide enhanced administrative oversight. In doing so, our calls for service workload imbalance between police districts will be reduced from about 5%to 3%. • Increase number of patrol shifts from four to five and slightly adjust shift hours to better mirror the occurrence of calls for service and violent crime. During peak time periods beat deployment will be increased up to 48 staffed beats. • Increase the number of patrol beats from 21 to 28 by increasing the number of police officers deployed to patrol operations during peak periods of calls for service and criminal activity. Increased deployment will enhance our crime reduction efforts and response times to calls for service. • Close the Community Service Offices and redeploy or eliminate six Community Service Officer I positions. Three will be reassigned to the Complaint Desk, one retained to support District Commander operations at the central Police Department and two will be eliminated to generate budget 1 savings. Historically, the offices have been underutilized by the public despite being strategically located within each District Command. A recent 32 day study of walk-in traffic revealed only 16 people per business day contacted all six Community Service Offices or an average of 2.7 people per office each day. • Although the Community Service Offices are being closed, Operation Phoenix Centers, located in three of the four policing districts, are available to the public to access local, county and state government services. Each center has an assigned police officer. A previous study identified a chronic crime and blight problem in the neighborhood around 40th and Sierra Way. It is recommended that the City Council consider creating a fourth Operation Phoenix Center in this area of the proposed Northwest policing district. • Use technology to create virtual District Community Service Offices for each district to readily provide web based public access to crime statistics, crime maps and the District Commander. • Increase usage of full-time police officers and decrease overtime expenditures associated with At Risk Corridor Patrols. • Transfer Crime Impact Teams (CIT) from Investigations to Patrol. Increase CIT from two to four teams, with one team assigned to each area district. CIT will be deployed in high risk neighborhoods based on crime analysis data. Investigations Division • Assign two detectives to form a new Cold Case Unit that investigates unsolved murders using proven investigative techniques and emerging technology. • Increase our commitment to graffiti enforcement and investigation by adding two officers(a 50%increase)to the Graffiti Task Force. Administrative Services Division • Create an Information Analyst position, essential to develop crime maps to support patrol operations, by upgrading an existing Community Service Officer H position. 2 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency Overview Historical Perspective of Community Oriented Policing and Problem Solving(COPPS) in San Bernardino In 1983, Mayor Bob Holcomb visited Houston, Texas and was introduced to the emerging concept of community policing. Upon his return to San Bernardino, Mayor Holcomb and the City Council worked with Chief Ben Gonzales to implement community policing in San Bernardino. The first Community Service Office was opened at 10th and Medical Center in 1985. Within a short period of time this nascent policing concept evolved into six geographically based District Commands each staffed by a Lieutenant and contingent of police officers and support personnel. One or more Community Service Offices were opened in each District Command to provide public access and collaboration. The focus of these early efforts was to enhance police interaction with the public and to build public trust. Over the years COPPS has evolved, primarily based on our experiences, community needs, technology development, and budgetary constraints. These intermediary efforts focused on balancing workloads between District Commands, problem identification and problem solving, and leveraging local, State and Federal resources to mitigate chronic problems. These evolutionary changes included: • First reducing the number of District Commands from six to three, then increasing the number back to five along with decentralizing problem solving assets to the area offices and balancing workloads. • Introducing a Problem Oriented Policing component that utilized the S-A-R-A model (Scanning — Analysis — Response — Assessment) of problem identification and resolution. • Implementing a 21 Beat Plan based on natural community boundaries that focused on three key points -- to better serve the community, to better serve the members of the department and to ensure adequate policing resources. The goals of the Beat Plan were to improve the partnership between the police and the community, and to develop ownership, or territorial imperative, where beat officers were accountable to eliminate crime and blight problems in their assigned beats. • Enhancing the 21 Beat Plan by deploying proactive teams in high risk neighborhoods and corridors based on timely analysis of crime and calls for service (CFS) data. This focused deployment of proactive resources, in collaboration with Operation Phoenix, is largely responsible for the reduction in reported Part I(serious felony) crimes over the past three years. 3 Rationale for Proposed Reorganization The recent economic downturn and the need to propose budget cuts to balance the City's FY 2008-09 budget provided the impetus for police managers to conduct an internal self critique of performance and the delivery of police services. We were provided the opportunity to reflect on our accomplishments and to chart a new course that contemplates budget reality, community needs and the policing challenges that the future holds. From these discussions the Command Staff has proposed a reorganization of police operations intended to take the COPPS policing concept to the next level of evolution. While past revamping efforts focused on interaction with the public and problem solving, this current proposal focuses on directly involving the public in problem identification and problem solving, enhancing the delivery of service to the public, and improving efficiency and effectiveness of police personnel. These goals will be accomplished by leveraging grant funding to purchase technology needed to improve communication between police and the community and to provide police officers and the public with real-time crime data such as calls for service, crime statistics and crime maps depicting crime problems and patterns. Although COPPS has grown and evolved over the years, the Executive Staff structure remains the same as it did in the early 1970's. Management Partners, Inc. (MPI) conducted a comprehensive study of our department's varied operational aspects. In its March 2007 final written report, the consulting firm made a number of recommendations regarding police operations. Prominent among the recommendations were: • Enhance the scope of duties of the Crime Analysis Unit to be responsible, not only for overall crime analysis, but also for analysis of crime trends within each of its policing districts. o Facilitate a shift from investigative support to patrol-related trends for analysis. o Focus crime analysis efforts on district specific patrol issues. o Focus crime analysis efforts on known parolees within districts. o Focus crime analysis efforts on known registrants within districts. o Establish daily crime analysis interaction with patrol personnel at the daily shift briefing level. o Assist district staff with crime trend analysis at the district, beat and RD level. • Add a fourth captain to the organization's leadership structure to balance the workload in the Patrol Division, enhance management oversight of critical police operations to minimize liability and maximize the deployment of police resources. As such, this recommendation is a sound business decision, providing the department with a progressive 21St century framework and a contemporary leadership structure matching function which will directly optimize delivery of law enforcement services. 4 • Create GIS mapping capability within the department o Facilitate the distribution of near-real-time UCR data in a map-based (desktop)format to command staff and district commanders. o Facilitate the distribution of simplified near-real-time UCR data in a map- based format to Patrol personnel from Mobile Data Computers in patrol sedans. o Facilitate the deployment of tactical pin maps around the organization for specialized crime data such as known parolee and registrant addresses. The proposed reorganization includes the permanent closure of all Community Service Offices and the reassignment or elimination of six support positions currently working out of the area offices. Historically the offices have been underutilized by the public despite being strategically located within each District Command. A recent 32 business day study of walk-in traffic revealed that an average of 2.7 people a day visited each of the six offices. We provide a higher level of access to government services, as well as a police officer at the three Operation Phoenix service centers where an array of city, county and private services are provided. Currently Operation Phoenix Centers are deployed in the Northeast, Southeast and Southwest policing districts. A previous study of chronic crime and blight identified the 40th and Sierra Way area as a location for an Operation Phoenix Center. We recommend the Council consider creating an Operation Phoenix Center in this area of the proposed Northwest policing district, providing a community center in each of the four policing districts. Despite budget cuts, the completion of the Combined Hiring Plan and the closure of the Community Service Offices provide additional personnel to enhance both patrol and investigative operations and enhance police services delivered to the public. The redeployed personnel, coupled with new technology that will be deployed over the next 12 to 18 months, will further improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the Police Department. Summary Through the development and implementation of the Operation Phoenix program, city officials continue their commitment to improving the quality of life for all community members. The three pillars of Suppression, Intervention, and Prevention provide the opportunity to develop collaborative strategies designed to reduce crime and blight, and improve the quality of life for our residents. The San Bernardino Police Department will use the synergy created by combining the COPPS policing model, expanded 28-Beat deployment plan and strategic deployment of proactive resources, driven by crime data, to provide more streamlined, efficient delivery of policing services. Through this new triad the Police Department will enhance the delivery of police services to the community. 5 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency Police Administration Overview Currently, Police Administration is comprised of a Chief of Police, Assistant Chief of Police, three Captains (Division Commanders), an Internal Affairs Unit, and support staff. This configuration remains almost exactly today as it did in 1970; yet the current organization has essentially doubled in size over the nearly four decades hence and society's demand for progressive policing services has increased exponentially. The current structure is no longer optimal in our ever-changing public safety-challenged environment. These facts, coupled with highly sophisticated technological computer systems advances, plus a multitude of complex scientifically-linked crime-solving breakthroughs, along with a variety of dynamic life-affirming societal forces and influences, have substantially elevated our 200,000 plus city-based stakeholders' expectations concerning their police department's capacity to deliver on its all-too- important mission. Our stakeholders' bottom line mandates that the police department perceptibly, as well as consistently, improve and enhance neighborhood safety and quality of life by proactively reducing crime. Proposed Reorganization • Upgrade an existing Lieutenant's position to Captain An immediate business sense realignment of Police Administration and the creation of a fourth Captain are long overdue. Most evident and compelling is a critical need to bifurcate the patrol division into North and South divisions, each commanded by a Captain to increase administrative oversight of critical patrol operations and reduce liability. Upgrading an existing Lieutenant's position to Captain will minimize cost to the City. This decision to expand and update the police department's leadership structure was not made in a vacuum; it has been validated by Management Partners, Inc., a reputable consulting firm retained by the City, which articulated in its March 2007 final report the recommendation of a fourth captain. This single change is the linchpin for all subsequent reorganization evolutionary changes in the Patrol, Investigations and Administrative Services divisions. It will provide the organization with not only a progressive 21s`century framework, but also with a contemporary, yet infused and stable leadership structure which can most directly optimize an efficient delivery system of difference-making law enforcement services. The return on investment will be fully evident by department-wide assets and resources being more strategically deployed and efficiently responsive. 6 r= ° 'N L a ca o0 N c o c as•-• I N N N N I > Q L _ a) C.) i C.) c x '5-c E w ° t 1 Q.. O ! °"• I m _ °3 U •Cl)• I z O N °II 07 N CD CO i r!) � , > ` Q —vS I as as N To i u' x � ! N a� w i Q c ¢ I F—- m 1 >v I o I i X I Li] I i 1 >—' c0 C N ', C d E 0 ca I ■ I 1 7 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency Administrative Services Division Overview The Administrative Services Division is currently comprised of one captain, one lieutenant, one police officer (recruiter), Police Communications, Records Bureau, Financial Unit, and Personnel & Training Unit. The division also serves as a liaison with the City's Information Technology Department and has responsibility for management oversight of the agency's contract jail operations. Reorganization Enhancements • Upgrade the Personnel&Training Lieutenant's position to Captain To accommodate department-wide reorganization, the Personnel & Training Unit lieutenant's position will be upgraded to provide a fourth Captain, necessary to bifurcate the Patrol Division. A civilian manager, already in place by way of a recent compensation and classification study, will become responsible for the day-to-day operations of the Personnel&Training Unit. Organizational confidence, along with stability of leadership, accompanies this transition as the civilian manager is a 24 year, previous long term supervisor of the unit. Moreover, the civilian manager possesses a breath of experience corresponding with demonstrated human resources laden competencies. Past success of the Personnel & Training Unit will continue as a blueprint for future success that has been forged. To date, all patrol officer positions are filled with zero vacancies. The immediate future regarding police officer recruitment is equally promising. Every goal (31 police officer positions) associated with the Combined Hiring Plan has been achieved. FY 08/09 provides for an additional nine police officer positions. Our community recruitment outreach strategies, bolstered by a variety of marketing and media campaigns, made possible through Measure Z funding, remain integral components of our anticipated continued success in the area of hiring the best and brightest police officer candidates. • Eliminate a Records Technician I position An upgrade to the Fi1eNET document imaging system will streamline the document scanning process and allow a Records Technician I position to be eliminated. Acquisition of state-of-the-art technology for our Fi1eNET system upgrades significantly enhances our document imaging capability in the Records Bureau. The upgrade improves administrative efficiencies and provides an overall budget cost savings in line with the elimination of a Records Technician position. 8 • Implement multi-channel dispatch operations for Patrol Division to enhance the processing of calls for service. Dispatch Operations are the somewhat invisible but indispensable 24/7/365 vital communications link between citizens calling the police department for a variety of law enforcement related services. Due to present city-wide fiscal challenges, Dispatch Operations will hold the line for the upcoming fiscal year by freezing two Dispatcher positions. This is significant as Dispatch operations will move into the realm of managing two primary channels to accommodate the proposed North/South patrol divisions. As the department moves forward with the proposed reorganization, Dispatch Center personnel will ready themselves for the challenge of managing, tracking and controlling a significant increase of officers and personnel in the field. There are a number of professional dispatch organizations, one of which is the Association of Public-Safety Communication Officials (APCO, International). Such associations strongly advocate limiting, for safety reasons, the number and volume of officers that any single dispatcher is assigned to monitor, track and control. The challenging public safety environment of San Bernardino should compel our agency and city leaders to be mindful of this area of concern. • Upgrade an existing Community Service Officer II position to create a new Information Analyst position assigned to the Police Dispatch. The Information analyst will manage the department's new GIS Crime Mapper program; a component of bringing about virtual based policing, and will be assigned to Police Dispatch. He/she will produce and distribute near-real-time crime maps to police administrators, the district commander, detectives and police officers (via MDC's in the police sedans) to provide more timely and accurate crime data upon which to base deployment and proactive investigative efforts. • Maximize implementation and utilization of over $10 million in new technology and automation acquired during the past decade. o Implement a wireless MDC communications network to provide near-real- time access to district and beat UCR data from Mobile Data Computers in patrol sedans. o Implement a web based crime mapping program designed to provide police commanders and line personnel with near-real-time crime mapping, including access in police sedans. o Implement virtual District Community Service Offices and web based community access to police statistics and calls for service data. o Upgrade the Fi1eNET document imaging system to enhance the collection and dissemination of police reports throughout the agency, and the police payroll process. 9 o Deploy four automated license plate readers in police sedans, one per police district,to enhance the recovery of stolen vehicles. o Facilitate near-real-time access to district and beat UCR data from Mobile Data Computers in patrol sedans. o Transition to field-based report writing software in patrol sedans. While the Administrative Services Division will be reduced by two personnel, the overarching importance for the proposed reorganization is the immediate, as well as long term, benefit to public safety through the evolution of our community policing model. 10 43 U m d1 CO c CZ N _c o __ a - 2 2 06 2 R c d N w O L O 6 O 1 •3 CZ B. >. E a.N C Epp ¢ o } O I E CI)• O I ■y L 1 a), • N CI*? = N O) -- O p ell _ _ C) 0 ry ca 1 d 1— 'c ,- 0 us ca O 0 m^ ` O N N C/1 o . ii) 0-� o o O N �a a • > .E . '.. 'CS E 3-1 Q .- N y co T_ N ?- c .0 O N CCU _ - ¢ 0 CA c o f `o R c • c m E � LL U)'O (f) 1 _ O I N N E T - N 6 IL j < CO vF.-.2 O v c --- s-N N N — N c N Z U a N m N a N H 0 O 'O ~ N c '= O O N O N 7 0 1— a0 Gf OU `p o N CO o 0 C d I- 11 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency Investigations Division Overview The Investigations Division, commanded by a Captain, is currently comprised of the Investigations Bureau and Special Enforcement Bureau each commanded by a Lieutenant. The Investigations Bureau is charged will completing follow-up investigations of crime reports taken primarily by the Patrol Division, preparing criminal cases for submission to the District Attorney, and testifying in court to secure successful prosecution. Detectives will remain assigned as investigative liaisons to each District in the Patrol Division. The Special Enforcement Bureau houses the highly-trained proactive units that work in tandem with Patrol to reduce violence in the community. SEB's mission of proactive enforcement geared toward the reduction of gang, gun and drug violence will continue. The Department has increased its collaborative efforts in reducing gun violence in San Bernardino through an extended partnership with the Federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms regional Violent Crime Impact Team. As we move to the next level of community policing, this partnership has grown to include the assignment of a Violent Crime Impact Team to the City of San Bernardino. This team is housed in an offsite facility and works in tandem with the San Bernardino Police Department Special Enforcement Bureau to reduce gun violence. Reorganization Enhancements • Addition of 2 officers to the Graffiti Task Force and the Realignment and assignment of the Graffiti Task Force to the Gang Team Historically, investigations into the structure and criminal activity of gangs in San Bernardino have been conducted by members of the MET/Gang Team, Gang Impact Task Force and Graffiti Task Force. These teams were spread between the Patrol and Investigations Division. They will now be consolidated in the Investigations Division, moving primary responsibility for gang suppression and enforcement to the Special Enforcement Bureau. Two officers have been added to the Graffiti Task Force to create a 4 officer contingent to address blight issues citywide. These GTF officers will be attached to the MET/Gang Team to better track the activity of"Tagger Crews" whose criminal activities often mirror those of street gangs. • Creation of a"Cold Case"homicide team Two Detectives will be assigned to a new "Cold Case" homicide team to aggressively re-examine unsolved murders. Improvement in forensic technology 12 and other investigative techniques will aid investigators in identifying suspects in some of theses cases. • Collaboration with ATF for a local Violent Crime Impact Team based in San Bernardino The Department has increased its collaborative efforts in reducing gun violence in San Bernardino through an extended partnership with the Federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms regional Violent Crime Impact Team. As we move to the next level of community policing, this partnership is expected to result in the assignment of a Violent Crime Impact Team to the City of San Bernardino. • The Aviation Unit will transition from the Investigations Division to the Patrol Division to support patrol operations The bifurcating of the Patrol Division provides the opportunity to transfer the Aviation Unit to the Patrol Division. Under this alignment, Air-1 operations can be fine tuned to better support both the North and South patrol divisions and be integrated into problem solving programs. 13 E—•• '— • o m e w m 5 m U LL O LL V mx �0 E .� E U,o_ U U O I I 08 N L.7..... f--- U a...a U 2 " � �;m j 8 I- m_ o _i—„&W n 0>32 m 2— e pm V `W W m Q O d CO LL m U G OLL dd I 1 m E . O m 1 m i U N 5 N 1g1;--;--1 7411”. U Y=U d _d 0 o a 4,, Or� i Zd Z E m E E a -1 Z'aa -8 c~.�a �N S. i F.'� o UU U d d m U C) Ct -r--- i I Q) C/) O c i �� m 0 c, 8^to ._. d -4. 4,f,.2 c m 5—i-� Cam/) a v _m E m E a a cE. co ct d m m N� _ m1 Zddd 1 LL m�'Oj, d'd ?d Od Od �d m Q Q c W m Ts o u 03 a v� a 1' o — Odd x LL —o Waa0- 2 d 14 San Bernardino Police Department Proposed Reorganization to Enhance Police Services and Efficiency North and South Patrol Divisions Overview The Patrol Division, lead by a captain and the largest division in the department, is the uniform presence of the department charged with the initial response to calls for service and crimes. Patrol resources are deployed based on our Community Oriented Policing and Problem Solving (COPPS) policing concept with the city currently divided into five geographically based District Commands. Each District Command is lead by a Lieutenant who provides the delivery of policing services with the assistance of a complement of police officers and support personnel. They address quality of life issues, crime trends and patterns, chronic service locations and coordinate with the community for crime prevention,neighborhood watch, and special programs. Patrol response units are deployed across four 10-hour shifts to cover the 21 Beat Plan, developed to balance the work load of calls for service and crime data. Police officers staffing these beats are charged with beat ownership, or territorial imperative, and responsibility to develop community partnerships necessary to collaboratively address community problems. Patrol units are augmented with the deployment of "At Risk Corridor" patrols and District Command "Crime Impact Teams" that address district specific crime problems. These proactive elements of the patrol division were first deployed to support Operation Phoenix, and then citywide after a dramatic decrease in crime occurred in the first Operation Phoenix district. Reorganization Enhancements • The Patrol Division will be divided into two geographically and workload-based divisions, North and South, each commanded by a Captain. (See Appendix 1) At 280 employees, the Patrol Division is by far the largest division of the Police Department. This large number of personnel coupled with a myriad of complex policing issues challenges the division's ability to respond effectively to community concerns and strains supervisory and management oversight. Bifurcating the division, creating a North and South Patrol Division, each commanded by a Captain, makes business sense, reduces liability, balances workload and improves communication and responsiveness. The cost of creating a fourth Captain has been minimized by upgrading a Lieutenant's position previously assigned to Personnel & Training. Division boundaries were developed by balancing calls for service and workload data while maintaining traditional neighborhoods. (See Appendixes 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9) 15 • Realignment from five to four District Commands, two each in the North and South divisions. Realigning the district commands from five to four will place two policing districts in each patrol division. (See Appendix 2) District Command boundaries were established by analyzing and balancing calls for service and workload. District community policing efforts will be augmented and enhanced by the assignment of four Crime Impact Teams and four At Risk Corridor patrol teams, strategically deployed to suppress crime in concert with our community policing model and the enhanced beat plan, addressing critical community needs and violent crime. The district commands will retain their problem solving capabilities, having an operations sergeant, detective, district resource officers and Community Service Officer II. The Community Service Officer I positions however will be either reassigned or eliminated to generate budget savings. • Strategic redeployment of proactive Crime Impact Teams officers and the "At Risk Corridor"patrols as a component of the district commands. Strategic redeployment of Crime Impact Team officers from investigations to the patrol district commands and assigning each District Command with an At Risk Corridor Patrol provides the district commanders with a very robust proactive capacity, enhancing suppression efforts and community response. Each district command CIT team consists of five officers supervised by a sergeant. Each patrol division will have two teams with opposing days off to provide seven day coverage. Two, two-officer teams will be assigned to At Risk Corridor Patrols in each district, providing seven day coverage during peak times. Assigning regular duty officers will reduce overtime expenditures for these patrols. Collectively, these teams provide 15- 18 additional proactive officers during peak hours each day. These teams will augment and enhance community policing efforts and support patrol shift officers. • Enhance the existing "beat plan" from 21 to 28 beats, with seven per district command. The current 21-Beat Plan will be enhanced, increasing from 21 to 28 beats, to provide enhanced community policing and problem solving. (See Appendix 3) The size of the beats will be smaller, and more officers will be deployed each day. The smaller beats will enhance beat "Territorial Imperative", ownership and community partnership. Daily shift deployment will be based on the occurrence times of calls for service and violent crime. (See Appendixes 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) During peak times, about 48 shift officers will be deployed. (See Appendix 12) • Realignment of patrol shifts from four ten-hour shifts to five ten-hour shifts Concurrent with increasing the number of patrol beats we will increase the number of patrol shifts from four ten-hour shifts to five. This change allows the department to 16 deploy officers during critical times when calls for service and violent crime are most prevalent. (See Appendix 11) • Eliminate Community Service Offices and create virtual District Community Service Offices through innovative technology to produce crime data for field use and enhance community partnerships,public access and connectivity. The virtual district command concept is another evolution in community policing and an adjunct of the department's triad approach. The physical Community Service Offices will be permanently closed and replaced with virtual District Community Service Offices through innovative technologies that keep the district lieutenants connected to the public and maintain the vitality of community partnerships. Implementation of Crime Mapper technology will provide near-real-time crime data to officers in their police sedans to help them identify and attack community problems. This same web based technology will be provided to the public promoting transparency of police operations and crime and enhancing accountability. Although the Community Service Offices are being closed, Operation Phoenix Centers, located in three of the four policing districts, provide an array of government and private sector services to the community. A police officer is assigned to each Operation Phoenix Center providing direct access to police services. It is recommended that the City Council consider a fourth Operation Phoenix Center in the 40th and Sierra Way area, which is located in the Northwest District. 17 9 1 � 1 a a ;c. ,_ ....._ a ma in ,- N�c Uv o x =L L d —. Sda Na o -r Z .oc U z Z o d z 1 1 1 1 V O O O O O O O M O O O^ C W(p r N ^ O O O.1..„ d .i 0 0 V __.._ N O M M _ M `� M _ N M_d, d L 4'Q. a a O M a a d d d d L Q) Z Z 0 w 5 I O_ F- U t-U 0 `o � 0 w r LL Q~ L L d d (n •-4 Z Z i 0 a) U ^� �- .,■, F- o O O o ^^ � t, h-� �d O Ct z 0 rao r- ~ 0 _ (� •.C,� yy U U 1I � � = � a o r a r � � v m C � (D y— z LM I 1 V�1 �? O O O O O w.� _ - M In co CA N (p N- N O O O d O O O-p O O _ y O •- N= M ,-<0 " O O .-Vim' O N CO CN 3d 3 ° aa � - - CO`- co � aa NCLa L N M 7 LO -C 0 U c = 0 Z Z U) (L!) 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NM _• NNE N_ O 0 O ra Laa 3a mCC o o v) > > - �v) cna 0 0 O u) u) 0 u) 1 1 1 1 1 19 Index of Appendixes 1. North Division and South Division Boundaries 2. Four District Boundaries 3. Twenty-Eight Beats 4. Average Police Calls-For-Service(PCFS)per Hour 5. Average Police Calls-For-Service(PCFS)per Period 6. Average Violent Crime Reports per Hour 7. Average Violent Crime Reports per Period 8. Average Property Crime Reports per Hour 9. Average Property Crime Reports per Period 10. Data Reference Sheet 11. Shift Hours and Hourly Patrol Coverage 12. Hourly Proactive Unit Coverage 1 ___ ___ ! 04 tV II N 0 m pY ,§ ', f"'r: Y N 'CD. amC+)°' MM cG v c,16- M M M v —C cn)° C) )m C 7 C) M ri v Q " m u; Cp A A 0N M 0to t0 1•- g L*' u 3mN M gmmG m 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 � 1111 I .a m c€. we_ fi e m m N-: may.- a g . .i. 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South Division and North Division Boundaries Data Source: 2007 CAD Calls-For-Service(CFS)Data—96,155 Incidents. Using existing Police Reporting District(RD)boundaries,the City was divided into two separate divisions. South Division has 3139 extra CFS to incorporate the David-1 beat into Southeast District as part of the mid-town Operation Phoenix Area. South Division has approximately 54.03%of the overall CFS call load while North Division has 45.97% of the CGS call load. 2. Four District Boundaries Data Source: 2007 CAD Calls-For-Service(CFS)Data—96,155 Incidents. Using the existing Police Reporting District(RD)boundaries, the City was divided into four roughly equal districts with an aim to have about 22,000 to 24,000 CFS in each district. The Southeast Division has a slightly larger CFS call load to accommodate encompassing the mid-town Operation Phoenix Area into one single district. 3. Twenty-Eight Beats Data Source: 2007 CAD Calls-For-Service(CFS)Data—96,115 Incidents. With 28 patrol beats 96155 CFS incidents produce approximate 3,434 CFS incidents per beat. Using this number as a rough baseline figure,the 28 beats were divided into the four districts producing seven beats in each district. Southeast District beats are slightly denser in call load because of the higher density of CFS incidents in this general area. The C5 beat was designed to accommodate the special characteristics of the SB621 service area. 4. Average Police Calls-For-Service(PCFS)per Hour Data Source: 2003-2007 CAD Calls-For-Service Data. Five years of CFS data were broken down into hourly blocks and averaged by day to create the final data. Average CFS Received counts reflect the hour that the incident was actually entered into the Computer-Aided-Dispatch(CAD) system. Average CFS Dispatched counts reflect the number of incidents actually dispatched to officers each hour. Using a five year period provides a more refined(thus more accurate)reflection of hourly counts. 5. Average Police Calls-For-Service(PCFS)per Period This report uses the same data source as Attachment 4 (Average Police Calls-For-Service per Hour). The 24 hourly blocks of data are combined into 8 three-hour periods to provide a more normalized set of data(counts per period)that can be easily compared to crime data. 6. Average Violent Crime Reports per Hour Data Source: 2006-2007 RMS UCR Part-1 Crime Data. Two years of recent UCR Part- 1 violent crime reports(Murder, Rape,Robbery, and Aggravated Assault)were broken down into hourly blocks and averaged by day to create the final data. Average Violent Crime Reports counts reflect the hour that the incident occurred instead of the hour reported to the Police Department. 7. Average Violent Crime Reports per Period This report uses the same data source as Attachment 6(Average Violent Crime Reports per Hour). The 24 hourly blocks of data are combined into 8 three-hour periods to provide a more normalized set of data(counts per period)that can be easily compared to CAD CFS data. 8. Average Property Crime Reports per Hour Data Source: 2006-2007 RMS UCR Part-1 Crime Data. Two years of recent UCR Part- 1 property crime reports (Burglary, Theft, and Vehicle Theft)were broken down into hourly blocks and averaged by day to create the final data. Average Property Crime Reports counts reflect the hour that the incident occurred instead of the hour reported to the Police Department. 9. Average Property Crime Reports per Period This report uses the same data source as Attachment 8 (Average Property Crime Reports per Hour). The 24 hourly blocks of data are combined into 8 three-hour periods to provide a more normalized set of data(counts per period)that can be easily compared to CAD CFS data. 11 ra '9" 4: 0 LL CN CCCCC o CO o 0 0 N�C to CO No O� QO O CO O OO CZ CV N M V tf) L L L L cr)cf)cf)Cn Zc� N j .�. U = NNCDCOCpCOCOCOCO N CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO N N CNN• d' N CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO CO COI CO CO COCOCD 0 C MC rrr r r N N N N N N N N CV N CV MM M M C)d ���C)��V'��d'�V C�N N N 4. a) 0 O O O O O O O O O O O o go o Q o O o Q O O O O E O O N O tO N- o Q O o Q N O Q V !IS O Q O CO O N N N (N O O O O O Q Q . 12 I-1-1 Z Z U){ L O 2 o cm o 0 O O u_ O U o I O L r O M d O O O• O L O O O c C▪D ' L O d '- a0 O H O 0_ U U L 111111111111111111111 LO r O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 '77! 0 0 0 0 0 0 F- 0 0 0 0 N M d IC) Cfl P. CO 6) O k- N M N M C> IC) C 3 N N N N N 0 0 0 0 0 0