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Home My WebLink About55-Public Comments . c Annex A Simulated RDD attack at Langley AFB, VA Notional RDD Scenario The date is I March 1999. A terrorist group is planning to use an RDD attack against Langley AFB, VA. The terrorists have stolen a spent fuel rod from nearby North Ahna nuclear power plant. They gain access to the base using a stolen identification card, and ., c ...-. are driving a rental truck full of two tons of fertilizer and diesel fuel, and have packed: the spent fuel rod in the middle of the explosive mixture. They park in the wing headquart~rs parking lot, exit the base using a previously placed getaway vehicle, and set the bomb'to explode at high noon. .' Hazard Prediction Assessment Code (HP AC) Simulation Software Overview HP AC is a forward deployable, counter-proliferation/counter-force capability available for government, government-related or academic use. This software tool assists warfighters in weaponeering targets containing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and in emergency response to , > hazardous agent releases. Its fast-running, physics-based algorithms enable users to model and predict hazard areas and human collateral effects in minutes. ( HP AC provides the capability to accurately predict the effects of hazardous material releases into the atmosphere and its impact on civilian and military populations. The software uses integrated source terms, high- 46 J~ U~ ~X #Ss- t,-/9-Qb () resolution weather forecasts and particulate transport to model hazard areas produced by battlefield or terrorist weapons of mass destruction (WMD) use, conventional counterforce attacks against WMD facilities, or military and industrial accidents. One of HPAC's strengths is fast access to real-time weather data via Meteorological Data Servers (MDS). HP AC also has embedded climatology or historical weather for use when real weather is not available. HPAC models all nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) collateral effects of concem to military operations. These may derive from the use of NBC weapons or from conventional weapon strikes against production and storage facilities for such weapons. Similar effects may result from military or industrial accidents. HP AC provides source information on potential radioactive releases from nuclear weapons or reactor accidents and has the capability to generate source terms for nuclear, chemical and biological weapon strikes or accidental releases. HP AC includes the SCiPUFF model for turbulent transport, a new and advanced technology that provides a highly efficient and accurate prediction for a wide range of hazard scenarios. HPAC can also help answer the question -- "How good is the prediction?" -- providing probabilistic solutions to the atmospheric transport problem. HPAC or MEA builds source terms for hazardous incidents for input to the atmospheric transport model, SCiPUFF. The current code hosts operator- friendly "incident" setup capability for nuclear, biological, and chemical releases resulting from either weapon deployment or facility attack. Sample HPAC projects are provided which may be edited to suit a wide range of user requirements or incidents. Additional improvements in the software are planned, but user feedback will ensure that these improvements include a user's perspective, not just a scientist's. I C> '\ ) Assumptions and Data The following assumptions and data were used and/or entered as variables into the HPAC simulation software: . I spent fuel rod (mass = 10.72 kg) from the North Anna power plant (reactor power = 2893 megawatts) . 4000 pounds of High Explosives 47 c . Altitude of incident: ground level · Location of incident Langley AFB, VA · Time of incident: March I, 1999 at 12:00 noon (local time) · HP AC software utilized historical weather data for temperature and winds · The simulation was terminated after an estimated 12 hours after the scenario, due to the operator's opinion that further radiological dispersion was negligible.2 Simulation Outputs c. The following plots show potential radioactive material dispersion patterns and give an estimate of the total radiation dosage in reins that a person would receive if they remained on the surface with no protection for the entire time period given.3 An acute whole body dose of 450-500 rems would cause approximately 50% of people to die within 30 days.' . (. 48 10.72 kg spent nuclear fuel at Langley AFB Historical Weather Total effective eq. at 02-Mar-99 17:00Z (24.0 hrs) 20.0 I I 14.0 ~ . 51 E ~ >- 8.0 2.0 -4.0 -10.0 -10.0 -4.0 2.0 8.0 X (km) 14.0 5km Figure 1 RDD Local Effects 49 20.0 (; rem 600.0 450.0 150.0 50.0 5.00 0.500 ( . -,,"_,J ~. c 10.72 kg spent nuclear fuel at Langley AFB Historical Weather Total effective eq. at 02-Mar-99 17:00Z (24.0 hrs) ~A f I I ! >- - c -632.4 -635.1 -381.1 -127.0 127.0 X (km) 381.1 200km Figure 2 RDD Regional Effects Notes rem I Amico, Ross, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, personal correspondence, II March 1999 2 Ibid. 3 Ibid , Turner, James "Atoms, Radiation, and Radiation Protection," Pergamon Press, 1986,p.229 ( 50 ..' .. ~ AFRAT AMS ARAC ARG CALIOPE CBlRF DoD DoE EOD FBI FEMA FRMAC FSU HPAC HEU IAEA IND NBC NEST PDD PSYOPS Pu RAP RADCON RDD RDW REAC/TS START TNT U USAF WATS WMD Consequence (l Glossary Air Force Radiation Assessment Team Aerial Measuring System Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability Accident Response Group Chemical Analysis by Laser Interrogation of Proliferation Effluents Chemical and Biological Incident Response Force Department of Defense Department of Energy Explosive Ordinance Disposal Federal Bureau of Investigation Federal Emergency Management Agency Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center Former Soviet Union Hazard Prediction Assessment Code Highly Enriched Uranium International Atomic Energy Agency Improvised nuclear device Nuclear (Radiological), Biological or Chemical Nuclear Emergency Search Team Presidential Decision Directive Psychological Operations Plutonium Radiological Assistance Program Radiation control Radiological dispersion device Radiological dispersion weapon Radiation Emergency Assistance Centerffraining Site Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Trinitrotoluene Uranium United States Air Force Wide-Area Tracking System Weapons of Mass Destruction ( " -./ l\-Ianagement: Measures to protect public health and safety, restore essential government services, and provide ,re}ieflo ~J~~~ ~~~~~. 51 (