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5. Environmental Analysis
5.11 POPULATIONANDHOUSING
This section examines whether Project implementation will result in significant population and housing
impacts. This analysis focuses on population and housing impacts associated with the adoption and
implementation of the proposed General Plan and adoption and implementation of the Arrowhead Springs
Specific Plan, as these actions have the potential to either induce population growth (directly or indirectly) or
displace substantial numbers of persons.
Current website information and pertinent documents from the City of San Bernardino as well other
appropriate agencies was also used in preparation of this section. The analysis in this section is based, in
part, upon sources of information from the following agencies:
. Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG)
. San Bernardino Associated Governments (SAN BAG)
. City Housing Element
5.11.1 Environmental Setting
5.11.1.1 San Bernardino General Plan
The City's total planning area encompasses 45,231 acres, or 71 square miles. This includes 38,402 acres, or
60 square miles, of incorporated City and 6,829 acres, or 11 square miles, of unincorporated lands within the
City's Sphere of Influence.
U.S. Census
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According to the U.S. Census, the incorporated City of San Bernardino had a population of 185,4011 in 2000,
which accounted for approximately eleven percent (10.8 percent) of the County of San Bernardino's total
population. This represents a 13 percent increase over the City's population in 1990 but less than the City's
growth rate of 33 percent between 1980 and 1990. Likewise, the County of San Bernardino grew at a rate of
21 percent from 1990, which was a decrease from the 58 percent growth rate between 1980 and 1990. The
population of the City of San Bernardino is still growing, but at a significantly reduced rate of less than
1 percent or less since 1994. The City's population and growth rates are shown in Table 5.11-1.
Census information is only provided for a portion of the City's Sphere of Influence. According to the 2000
Census, Muscoy, an approximately 2,000 acre area west of 1-215 and north of SR-30, contained 2,299 units
and had a population of 8,919 in the year 2000.
SCAG Projections
According to SCAG, the City can anticipate a 15 percent increase in population by the year 2025. This
represents an increase of 27,003 persons in the City. The population projected within San Bernardino's
existing (2005) City limit is anticipated to constitute 8.3 percent of the population within the SAN BAG
subregion and 22 percent of the population within the County. The City is projected to accommodate 12.2
percent of the subregion's and 30 percent of the County's employment. Finally, SCAG projects that the City
will accommodate 8 percent of the subregion's and 20 percent of the County's household growth. Table
5.11-2 below provides the most current SCAG forecasts for the City, County, and SAN BAG Subregion:
1 It should be noted that this differs from SCAG's 2004 RTP Population, Housing, and Employment forecasts from
SAN BAG that states there were 185,772 persons in the year 2000. The Census base year figure was used in the analysis
for this EIR.
General Plan Update and Associated Specific Plans EIR
City of San Bernardino . Page 5.11-1
5. Environmental Analysis
Table 5.11-1
Historic Population Growth Trends in San Bernardino
City County
Year Population Growth Rate* Population Growth Rate
1980 123,429 - 895,016 -
1990 164,164 33% 1,418,380 58%
1991 172,900 5% 1,464,775 3%
1992 176,400 2% 1,508,775 3%
1993 179,900 2% 1,539,800 2%
1994 180,700 0.4% 1,559,250 1%
1995 180,700 0% 1,572,650 0.9%
1996 181,400 0.3% 1,587,150 0.9%
1997 182,200 0.4% 1,605,000 1%
1998 183,600 0.7% 1,631,400 2%
1999 183,600 0.7% 1,631,400 2%
2000 185,401 13% 1,709,434 21%
Sources: 1990 & 2000 U.S. Census Bureau; California Department of Finance, Reports E-4 and E-5. *Growth
rates are for the ten-year periods 1980-90 and 1990-2000.
Population 1,718,311 1,919,215 2,059,420 2,229,700 2,397,709 2,558,729
Household 530,498 567,172 618,782 686,584 756,640 826,669
Employment 594,923 669,028 770,877 870,491 972,243 1,074,861
Jobs-to-household Ratio 1.12 1.18 1.25 1.27 1.28 1.30
County of San Bernardino
Population 758,054 821,045 865,149 897,295 929,181 960,025
Household 244,476 260,357 275,352 289,318 303,596 317,831
Employment 337,247 346,770 381,680 403,000 424,470 445,193
Jobs-to-household Ratio 1.38 1.33 1.39 1.39 1.40 1.40
City of San
Population 185,772 199,035 207,021 208,860 210,672 212,404
Household 56,341 57,221 58,288 60,211 62,290 64,440
Employment 81,115 88,791 99,337 110,056 120,965 131,943
Jobs-to-household Ratio 1.44 1.55 1.70 1.83 1.94 2.05
Source: April 2004 RTP Population, Household, and Employment forecasts for the City of San Bernardino and SAN BAG subregion.
Jobs/Household Balance
The General Plan will alter the relationship between jobs and households at the city, subregional, and county
levels. Jobs/household balance is one indicator of a project's effect on growth and quality of life in the
project area.
SCAG uses the jobs/household ratio to assess the relationship between housing and employment growth.
The jobs/household ratio is a general measure of the "balance" between the number of jobs and number of
households within a geographic area, without regard to economic constraints or individual preferences.
Page 5.11-2 . The Planning Center
July 2005
5. Environmental Analysis
Jobs/household goals and ratios are advisory only. No ideal jobs/household ratio is adopted in state,
regional or city policies. However, SCAG refers to communities with more than the average of 1.5 jobs per
household as "jobs-rich."
As can be seen on Table 5.11-2 above, the subregion and County are projected to be slightly housing rich in
2025. On the other hand, the City of San Bernardino is projected to be jobs rich in that same time period.
This difference makes sense given the concentration of employment within a City versus the spreading of
employment and residential uses over the entire County and subregion. The high level of jobs-to-households
reflects the fact that San Bernardino is and will continue to be a center for employment. The City currently
houses an international airport that will be coming on line in the near future, two major educational institu-
tions, and is the home of significant government offices (County of San Bernardino, County Court House,
Caltrans, Federal, etc.) and regional transportation facilities (railroads, airport, and freeways). There are
numerous related businesses that locate within the City to be near these uses. Build-out of the proposed
General Plan accounts for these existing uses and potential businesses.
Current and Future Housing Needs
The City of San Bernardino Housing Element, adopted in July 2003 (Mayor and Common Council Resolution
No. 2003-189) provides a thorough discussion as well as goals and policies to address issues of housing
affordability. Government Code Section 65863 restricts cities' ability to reduce the maximum allowable
density in area already designated or zoned for residential uses to a level below the density used by the
State of California Housing and Community Development Department (HCD) when determining whether a
city's housing element complied with state law. It is immaterial under the statute whether the reduction is
initiated by a city or by a member of the public. A city may not require nor permit the reduction of density of
any such residentially-designated parcel unless the city finds the proposed reduction in density is consistent
with the General Plan and that the remaining sites identified in the Housing Element are adequate to
accommodate the City's share of the regional housing needs.
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If a city cannot make the second finding, it may still make the reduction in density if it determines there are
sufficient "additional, adequate, and available" sites with equal or greater residential capacity in the juris-
diction so that there is no net loss of residential unit capacity. In some instances, it may be necessary for the
city to "up-zone" some other area of the city in order to legally accomplish a down zoning (Government
Code Section 65863).
I n the adopted Housing Element, the City estimated that a total of 3,782 new housing units would be needed
between 1998 and 2005. Of these, 1,148 units are to be affordable to very low income households, 676 to
lower income households, 734 to moderate income households, and 1,223 to upper income households.
5.11.1.2 Arrowhead Springs Specific Plan
Approximately 368 acres of the Arrowhead Springs Specific Plan area are currently located in the incor-
porated City. The remaining 1,548 acres are located in unincorporated County of San Bernardino. There is
one unit within the incorporated portion and 10 units in the unincorporated portion of the Specific Plan. Ten
of these units are part of the hotel and were intended as temporary housing. A few units are used by main-
tenance staff as permanent housing. Currently, there are nine permanent residents that also work at
Arrowhead Springs. However, for purposes of this analysis, the maximum potential population was assumed.
Based on the Department of Finance, City/County Population and Housing Estimates (1/1/2004) average
household size of 3.340 persons per household, there could be approximately 37 people residing within the
Specific Plan area. Employment at Arrowhead Springs consists of maintenance and security staff and the
offices of the American Development Group. During the business week, there are twenty employees on-site.
General Plan Update and Associated Specific Plans EIR
City of San Bernardino . Page 5.11-3
5. Environmental Analysis
5.11.2 Thresholds of Significance
According to Appendix G of the CEQA Guidelines, a project would normally have a significant effect on the
environment if the project would:
P-1
Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly (for example, by pro-
posing new homes and businesses) or indirectly (for example, through extension of
roads or other infrastructure).
P-2
Displace substantial numbers of existing housing, necessitating the construction of
replacement housing elsewhere.
P-3
Displace substantial numbers of people, necessitating the construction of
replacement housing elsewhere.
5.11.3 Environmentallmpacts
The following impact analysis addresses thresholds of significance for which the Initial Study disclosed
potentially significant impacts. The applicable thresholds are identified in parentheses after the impact
statement.
It is important to note the differences between build-out and the SCAG projections. General Plan build-out
refers to the ultimate development in the City and, since there is no schedule for when this development will
occur, is not linked to a timeline. In addition, the General Plan provides policy level guidance and does not
contain specific project proposals or population controls. On the other hand, the SCAG projections are
based upon annual increments. Since build-out of the General Plan is not linked to a timeframe, it is impos-
sible to make a direct comparison with the population, housing, and employment projections provided by
SCAG. It is also important to note that the SCAG 2004 RTP long-range regional growth projections consider
growth within San Bernardino's existing City limits through year 2025 and estimates specific to the Sphere of
Influence have not been made. However, for purposes of this CEQA analysis, the 20 year SCAG projections
are used for general comparison.
It is also important to note that the build-out to the maximum levels permitted by the General Plan is not
anticipated to occur in the future. This is based on the fact that the City has historically experienced
development intensity that is considerably less than the maximums allowed in the General Plan. The
projected build-out growth in this General Plan is based upon these historic levels of development intensity
and not upon the maximums allowed in the General Plan.
5.11.3.1 San Bernardino General Plan
GP IMPACT 5.11-1:
BUILD-OUT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO GENERAL PLAN WOULD ALLOW FOR
SUBSTANTIAL POPULATION GROWTH THROUGH DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL HOUSING UNITS. [THRESHOLD P-1 J
Impact Analysis: The San Bernardino General Plan Update plans for orderly population growth. One
purpose of the General Plan is to identify the locations, densities, and standards for the desired growth of the
City. Accordingly, the General Plan identifies areas for very low density (estates), low density, suburban and
urban levels of density, medium and medium high density, high density residential land uses, and mixed use
(residential and nonresidential). These residential uses would result in a direct population growth through
build-out of the prescribed land uses. In addition, the General Plan designates commercial and industrial
land uses such as office, neighborhood commercial, general commercial, regional commercial, light
industrial, industrial park, or heavy industrial, which could lead, indirectly, to population growth by providing
employment opportunities.
Page 5.11-4 . The Planning Center
july 2005
5. Environmental Analysis
As mentioned, build-out to the maximum levels permitted by the General Plan is not anticipated to occur and
was not used as a basis for build-out projections. Assuming average build-out levels that are realistic for the
City of San Bernardin02, the General Plan accommodates a total of 95,664 total units, which includes 82,714
dwelling units in the incorporated City and 12,950 dwelling units in the City's sphere of influence. Based on a
factor of 3.340 persons per household3, the projected population at build-out for the entire planning area
would be approximately 319,241 people, which includes 276,264 persons in the City and 42,976 persons in
the City's sphere of influence. Assuming the vacancy factor of 11.3 percent from the 2000 Census, there
could be 84,854 households in the existing City limits at build-out.
Within the total planning area (incorporated plus sphere of influence), the proposed land use plan provides
for a total of 3,995 acres of commercial and office uses, including 257 acres of mixed use development
(accommodates a mix of commercial, office, and higher density residential development), and 6,065 acres of
light and general industrial uses. At build-out using the adjusted intensity factors (FARs), the land use plan
could generate approximately 355,629 jobs in the total planning area and 338,712 jobs in the existing
jurisdictional boundaries.
The build-out projections for population, households, and employment for the City are all greater than those
projected by SCAG to occur in the year 2025. Table 5.11-3 below summarizes the population, household,
and employment projections and build-out projections for the City.
Proposed General Plan Build-out
SCAG Projections for City of San Bernardino Projections
2000 2025 City Only City + Sphere
Population 185,772 212,404 276,2642 319,2412
Household 56,341 64,440 73,3671 84,8541
Employment 81,115 131,943 338,712 355,629
Jobs-to-household Ratio 1.44 2.05 4.62 4.19
Table 5.11-3
Comparison of SCAG 2025 and General Plan Build-out Projections
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Sources: April 2004 RTP Population, Household, and Employment forecasts for the City of San Bernardino and SAN BAG subregion.
1 Assuming a vacancy rate of 11.3% per the 2000 Census
2 Department of Finance (1/1/04), which utilized 3.340 persons per unit
In order to make a comparison of General Plan build-out to existing employment conditions, the 2000
employment figures from SCAG were used. As can be seen in Table 5.11-3 above, the number of jobs pro-
jected at build-out of the General Plan is significantly higher at build-out than was assumed by SCAG in the
year 2000. Part of this can be attributed to the closure of Norton Air Force Base closed in 1994 and the
resultant loss of thousands of jobs. The build-out of the General Plan assumes reuse of the airport. As can
also be seen in Table 5.11-3 above, the jobs-to-household ratio is substantially higher at build-out than is
projected by SCAG to occur in the year 2025. Again, this is not a direct comparison as build-out is not linked
to a timeline but represents ultimate development of the City. By achieving a very jobs-rich 4.19 jobs/
household ratio, the proposed General Plan benefits the overall County and subregional jobs/housing
2 The build-out assumptions in the General Plan are not based upon the maximum density and intensity levels for each land use
category, but on typical development levels found in the City. This accounts for variations in project design, site conditions, open
spaces, and access and parking requirements. Dwelling unit projections were estimated at 85 percent of the maximum density for each
land use designation. Building square footage for the non-residential land use designations were calculated at 60 percent for
commercial land uses and 70 percent for industrial land uses of the maximum FAR. These adjustments account for the fact that build-
out, on average, typically occurs at less than the maximum density.
3 Department of Finance, City/County Population and Housing Estimates (1/1/2004).
General Plan Update and Associated Specific Plans EIR
City of San Bernardino - Page 5.11-5
5. Environmental Analysis
balance. This reflects the desire to continue to be a center of employment and build upon the existing
concentration of government offices, higher educational institutions, and improve the airport and surrounding
area. Given that employees will not necessarily live and work within the same City, the concentration of jobs
in the City will help more workers in the area live and work within the County and subregion, which will help
address the slight imbalance at the county and subregional levels.
When compared to the proportion of population and households at the County and Subregional levels in
2025, the City build-out levels are slightly higher, as shown on Table 5.11-4. Given that build-out ofthe City is
not limited to 2025, this proportional increase is generally consistent with SCAG's projections. However, the
proportion of jobs-to-households projected at build-out of the City is significantly greater than those
projected by SCAG to occur in 2025. These jobs will help the County and Subregion address the slight
imbalance in the future.
City Build-out Projections
SCAG 2025 Projections (2005 City Boundaries)
City as % of City as % of City as % of City as % of
SANBAG Subregion County SANBAG Subregion County
Population 8.3% 22% 12% 33%
Households 8% 20% 10% 27%
Employment 12% 30% 33% 80%
Table 5.11-4
Comparison of SCAG 2025 and City Build-out Proportions
It should also be noted that while statistically the employment figures for build-out of the General Plan
indicate that this large portion of jobs can be accommodated, it is not realistic to assume that they will
actually occur. However, given the types of employment resources existing and expected to continue to exist
in the City, it can be anticipated that the City will be jobs rich in the future.
Build-out in accordance with the City of San Bernardino General Plan would accommodate substantial
growth when compared to SCAG's 2025 population, household, and employment projections. As can be
seen on Table 5.11-4, the build-out projections for population, households, and employment are all greater
than projected by SCAG to occur in 2025. Since build-out of the General Plan is not linked to a timeframe, it
is impossible to make a direct comparison with the 2025 SCAG projections. However, as seen on Table
5.115.114, the proportion of population and households at build-out of the City is generally consistent with
SCAG's projections at the County and Subregional levels and the General Plan provides some additional
capacity for to accommodate growth beyond the year 2025.
SCAG projects the City to be jobs-rich in 2025; however, the build-out projections for the City indicate a
much greater proportion of employment and a much greater level of jobs-to-households. Considering it is
not a direct comparison, the build-out of the City provides additional capacity beyond the year 2025 to
accommodate additional employment. This will help the County and SAN BAG Subregion address the
projected regional jobs deficiency. This will allow a greater number of residents in the region to live and work
in the City and surrounding areas.
Page 5.11-6 . The Planning Center
july 2005
5. Environmental Analysis
GP IMPACT 5.11-2:
BUILD-OUT OF THE SAN BERNARDINO GENERAL PLAN WOULD RESULT IN
DISPLACING PEOPLE AND/OR HOUSING NECESSITATING THE
CONSTRUCTION OF REPLACEMENT HOUSING ELSEWHERE. [THRESHOLDS
P-2 AND P-3]
Impact Analysis: The General Plan Land Use Element identifies two specific areas of the City where the
proposed land use designations are changed from residential to non-residential and would result in the dis-
placement of people and housing. In the first area, a 13.1 acre area west of 1-215 is currently developed with
and designated for residential uses (RS). In the proposed General Plan, this area is proposed to be changed
to job producing industrial uses (IL). In the second area, within the Eastern Recreation Village Strategic Area,
the proposed General Plan reflects an ongoing redevelopment project and non-residential land use
designation. The Arden-Guthrie area is currently designated as Public Commercial Recreation (PCR) in the
existing General Plan and Zoning Ordinance and is part of an existing redevelopment program to remove
units, relocate tenants, and develop commercial and commercially oriented recreational uses.
While no quantitative studies have been performed, the proposed General Plan continues existing General
Plan and Zoning designations that identify areas for non-residential uses where some existing and scattered
residential uses currently exist. For instance, within the existing industrial designations near Tippecanoe,
there are some scattered legal non-conforming residential uses. Likewise, there are a few legal non-con-
forming residences in commercial designated or industrial designated areas in other areas of the City, such
as along commercial corridors.
The General Plan and Zoning Code assume that these existing legal non-conforming uses will remain until
changes occur through voluntary means or through redevelopment efforts. In the meantime, improvements
and alterations to these uses are addressed in Section 19.62, Non-Conforming Structures and Uses, of the
City's Development Code.
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The proposed General Plan Update provides for additional residential opportunities in areas that currently do
not allow residential uses. Through the Corridor Improvement Program, the General Plan allows the infusion
of residential uses to reduce the length of strip commercial and concentrate commercial uses at major inter-
sections. As a result, the General Plan will not result in the displacement of a substantial number of people or
existing homes.
Relevant General Plan Policies and Programs
The purpose of a general plan is to plan for and accommodate increases in population, housing and employ-
ment. The goals and policies of a general plan are intended to reduce the impacts of this growth and
accommodate balanced and manage growth with adequate housing, infrastructure, services, and systems.
The General Plan provides the benchmark for which to plan for infrastructure and services; however, the
circulation and infrastructure systems, recreational facilities and programs, and safety and civic services will
be required to accommodate the increase in population, housing, and employment as necessitated by the
level of growth at the time it occurs. For instance, as described in the Circulation Element, the planned
roadway systems have been sized and located to accommodate the anticipated levels of population and
employment at build-out of the Land Use Plan. As individual projects occur, the street system will be
developed according to the contribution of each project.
In addition to the General Plan Land Use designations, the following are examples of relevant policies in the
proposed General Plan Update that balance population/housing growth with the provision of adequate
services and infrastructure:
General Plan Update and Associated Specific Plans EIR
City of San Bernardino - Page 5.11- 7
5. Environmental Analysis
Land Use Element
Policy 2.1.1: Actively enforce development standards, design guidelines, and policies to preserve and
enhance the character of San Bernardino's neighborhoods. (LU-1)
Policy 2.2.1: Ensure compatibility between land uses and quality design through adherence to the
standards and regulations in the Development Code and policies and guidelines in the Community Design
Element.
Policy 2.4.1: Quality infill development shall be accorded a high priority in the commitment of City resources
and available funding.
Policy 2.4.2: Continue to provide special incentives and improvement programs to revitalize deteriorated
housing stock, residential neighborhoods, major business corridors, and employment centers.
Policy 2.4.3: Where necessary to stimulate the desired mix and intensity of development, land use flexibility
and customized site development standards shall be achieved through various master-planning devices
such as specific plans, planned development zoning, and creative site planning.
Policy 2.6.2: Balance the preservation of plant and wildlife habitats with the need for new development
through site plan review and enforcement of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).
Policy 2.7.5: Require that development be contingent upon the ability of public infrastructure to provide
sufficient capacity to accommodate its demands and mitigate its impacts.
The projected build-out population, housing, and employment growth would occur throughout the City as
described on the Land Use Map. Since most of the City is already developed, the projected growth would
occur in scattered undeveloped or underutilized properties throughout the City and its Sphere of Influence.
The following General Plan policies emphasize infill development and revitalization of underutilized parcels
within the City, ensuring quality development, and the enhancement/preservation of neighborhood character
and resources:
Housing Element
Policy 3.1.1: Accommodate the production of new housing units on currently vacant or underutilized land at
densities and standards designated in the Land Use Element of the General Plan.
Policy 3.1.4: Accommodate residential development in areas of the Central City designated for mixed
commercial and residential use in accordance with policies in the Land Use Element.
Policy 3.3.1: In compliance with state law (Government Code Section 65915), provide density bonuses
and/or regulatory and financial incentives to developers who propose to include a specified percentage
of very low-income, low-income, and/or senior housing in new development projects or as part of the
conversion of rental apartments to condominiums.
Community Design Element
Policy 5.3.6: Provide for streetscape improvements, landscape and/or signage that uniquely identify
architecturally or historically significant residential neighborhoods. (CD-3)
Policy 5.5.1: Require new and in-fill development to be of compatible scale and massing as existing
development yet allow the flexibility to accommodate unique architecture, colors, and materials in individual
projects.
Page 5.11-8 . The Planning Center
july 2005
5. Environmental Analysis
Programs
. Corridor Improvement Program, which is an optional package of policy, regulatory, and incentive
programs that, if applied, are intended to stimulate private investment and result in desired develop-
ment within the Corridor Strategic Areas. This is accomplished by providing optional incentives, in
the form of density bonuses and varied development standards, to developments that qualify.
. Promote downtown revitalization by seeking and facilitating mixed-use projects (e.g., combinations
of residential, commercial, and office uses).
. Accommodate residential units above the first floor of commercial structures provided that: a) The
impacts of noise, odor, and other characteristics of commercial activity can be adequately mitigated;
and b) A healthy, safe, and well-designed living environment with a complement of amenities can
be achieved for the residential units.
As indicated by the above policies, the General Plan encourages infill and revitalization of both vacant and
underutilized sites. lnfill development on vacant sites would not displace residents and/or businesses;
however, revitalization of underutilized sites could displace residents and businesses over time. Neverthe-
less, the displacement impact would not be significant because it would provide for new housing at these
locations, together with complementary commercial uses. In other portions of the Planning Area, the General
Plan proposes a mix of residential and non-residential uses on sites currently underutilized with exclusively
non-residential uses.
5.11.3.2 Arrowhead Springs Specific Plan
AHS IMPACT 5.11-1:
BUILD-OUT OF THE ARROWHEAD SPRINGS SPECIFIC PLAN WOULD RESULT
IN SUBSTANTIAL POPULATION GROWTH THOUGH THE CONSTRUCTION OF
ADDITIONAL HOUSING UNITS. [THRESHOLD P-1 ]
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Impact Analysis: The Arrowhead Springs Specific Plan addresses the orderly population growth within
1,916 acres partially within and outside of the City's jurisdictional boundaries. The Specific Plan identifies
areas for low density, medium density, and mixed use (residential and nonresidential). These residential uses
would result in a direct population growth through build-out of the prescribed land uses. In addition, the
Specific Plan designates commercial uses that allow hotel, entertainment, office, health clubs, restaurants,
and a golf course, which could lead, indirectly, to population growth by providing employment opportunities.
At build-out, the Arrowhead Springs Specific Plan could accommodate 1,350 residential units. Based on a
factor of 3.340 persons per household and an adjustment for senior units4, the projected population at build-
out for the Specific Plan would be approximately 4,233 people. This would account for 1.3 percent of the
population and 1.4 percent of the housing units at build-out of the City's total planning area. While there is no
standard for comparison, the proportions of population and housing resulting from build-out of Arrowhead
Springs are not in themselves significant.
Arrowhead Springs provides new housing opportunities and a range of housing products that do not
currently exist and can accommodate workers. The 1,350 new residential units would provide housing
opportunities for multiple segments of the housing market, from executive homes to multi-family units.
Arrowhead Springs accommodates 36 custom estates, 34 "urban" flats in Village Walk, 266 condominiums
and town homes adjacent to Village Walk, 150 upscale senior units, 150 non-age restricted attached units,
429 golf course condominiums, and 285 town homes and condominiums.
41n the Senior Village (RM-SV), it is assumed that 150 units will be restricted to seniors (1.5 persons per unit) and
150 units will not be age restricted (3.340 persons per unit)
General Plan Update and Associated Specific Plans EIR
City of San Bernardino . Page 5.11-9
5. Environmental Analysis
This mixture is vastly different that what exists in the City. The 2000 Decennial Census found that the housing
stock in the City was 58.8 percent single-family, 4.3 percent single-family attached, 29.8 percent multi-family,
6.9 percent mobile homes, and 0.2 percent other types of units (boats, recreational vehicles, vans, etc). On
the other hand, single-family homes in Arrowhead Springs account for 2.7 percent of the total units while
multi-family units account for 97.3 percent of the units. The multi-family units typically provide a more
affordable housing option that can be used by on-site workers and residents of San Bernardino.
The Specific Plan also accommodates the development of 1,044,646 square feet of non-residential uses,
which includes 235,996 square feet of existing and 808,650 square feet of new commercial uses. At build-
out, the land use plan for the total planning area could generate approximately 2,530 jobs. Based upon the
2000 Census, the City of San Bernardino has an 11.3 percent housing vacancy rate. However, due to the
unique nature and mixture of product in Arrowhead Springs, a 5 percent vacancy rate has been assumed for
the Specific Plan. Given the 5 percent vacancy rate, Arrowhead Springs may realize 1,283 households.
At build-out, Arrowhead Springs would have a jobs-to-household factor of 1.97. This reflects the concen-
tration of employment in the specific plan for the hotel, health club and spa, and commercial uses. As shown
on Table 5.11-3 above, SCAG projections indicate that the City as a whole will be jobs-rich in 2025 (2.05
jobs-to-household ratio) and the build-out projections for the proposed General Plan show a greater level of
jobs-to-households (4.67 jobs-to-household ratio). Since, the Specific Plan improves the overall jobs-to-
households imbalance at the City level and helps reduce the region-wide households to jobs imbalance, no
significant impacts are anticipated.
The recent court decision in Napa Citizens for Honest Government v. Napa County Board of Supervisors,
91 Cal. App. 4th 342 (2001), confirms the importance of addressing jobs/housing location relationships as
part of the environmental review process. The proposed project addresses both housing needs of proposed
workers and the City's ability to provide for their housing needs. Arrowhead Springs would locate homes
near job opportunities, thus addressing local and regional policies aimed at matching housing and job
opportunities and reducing vehicle trips and associated congestion/emissions.
AHS IMPACT 5.11-2:
BUILD-OUT OF THE ARROWHEAD SPRINGS SPECIFIC PLAN WOULD
DISPLACE 11 HOUSING UNITS (THRESHOLDS P-2 AND P-3)
Impact Analysis: There are 11 units existing within the Specific Plan. Ten of these units are part of the hotel
and were intended as temporary housing. Currently, however, there are nine permanent residents and their
families using a few of these units, all of whom work on-site. Assuming a worst-case scenario, there could be
approximately 37 people residing within the Specific Plan area that could be displaced.
However, the Arrowhead Springs Specific Plan could accommodate 1,350 new residential units,
approximately 4,233 people, and approximately 2,530 jobs. Arrowhead Springs provides new housing
opportunities and a range of housing products that do not currently exist in the City and could accommodate
the population displaced. The housing mixture at Arrowhead Springs is 2.7 percent single-family and 97.3
percent multi-family units. Due to the high percentage of multi-family units, Arrowhead Springs is consistent
with the City Housing Element's ongoing effort to boost housing production to meet its fair share of regional
housing needs, as required by state law.
5.11.4 Existing Regulations and Standard Conditions
5.11.4.1 San Bernardino General Plan
. The City shall maintain its Housing Element in compliance with relevant State Law.
Page 5.11-10 . The Planning Center
july 2005
5. Environmental Analysis
5.11.4.2 Arrowhead Springs
There are no existing regulations or standard conditions relating to population and housing.
5.11.5 Level of Significance before Mitigation
5.11.5.1 San Bernardino General Plan
GP Impact 5.11-1:
Without mitigation the following impacts would be less than significant:
GP Impact 5.11-2:
SCAG projects the City to be jobs-rich in 2025; however, the build-out projections
for the City indicate a much greater proportion of employment and a much greater
level of jobs-to-households. Considering it is not a direct comparison, the build-out
of the City provides additional capacity beyond the year 2025 to accommodate
additional employment. This will help the County and SAN BAG Subregion address
the projected regional jobs deficiency. This will allow a greater number of residents
in the region to live and work in the City and surrounding areas, and improve the
jobs/housing balance of the SAN BAG Subregion consistent with the goals and
policies contained in SCAG's Regional Comprehensive Plan & Guide. Therefore,
potential population and housing impacts are considered substantial, but not
adverse.
Less than significant. Although the General Plan Update redesignates some
residential land for non-residential uses, the lost units can be accommodated in
other areas of the City. The proposed General Plan Update provides for additional
residential opportunities in areas that currently do not allow residential uses.
Through the Corridor Improvement Program, the General Plan allows the infusion of
residential uses to reduce the length of strip commercial and concentrate commer-
cial uses at major intersections. As a result, the General Plan will not result in the
displacement of a substantial number of people or existing homes.
~
5.11.5.2 Arrowhead Springs Specific Plan
AHS Impact 5.11-1
Without mitigation the following impacts would be less than significant:
AHS Impact 5.11-2
Since the Specific Plan improves the overall jobs-to-households imbalance at the
City level and helps reduce the region-wide households to jobs imbalance, no
significant impacts are anticipated.
As mentioned above, the Arrowhead Springs Specific Plan could accommodate
1,350 new residential units, approximately 4,233 people, and approximately 2,530
jobs. Arrowhead Springs provides new housing opportunities and a range of
housing products that do not currently exist in the City. As a result, the loss of
11 units is not considered significant.
5.11.6 Mitigation Measures
5.11.6.1 San Bernardino General Plan
No significant impacts were identified and no mitigation measures are necessary.
General Plan Update and Associated Specific Plans EIR
City of San Bernardino . Page 5.11-11
5. Environmental Analysis
5.11.6.2 Arrowhead Springs Specific Plan
No significant impacts were identified and no mitigation measures are necessary.
5.11.7 Level of Significance after Mitigation
No mitigation measures are necessary.
Page 5.11-12 . The Planning Center
july 2005